| Todays Case - Mumbai S.E. |
| SICAL LOG (520086) - 13 Aug. Price: 103.10 |
| SICAL LOG has broken the ceiling of the falling trend, which indicates a slower initial falling rate. Has built a double bottom formation and given signal of further rise to 105. On reactions back, there is now support at 98.65. The stock has support at 93.00 and resistance at 132. The volume balance is positive and strengthens the stock in the short term. RSI diverges positively against the price, which indicates a possibility for a reaction up. The stock is overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term. |
| The medium long term: Positive candidate |
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Market may open down. Market may up between 10.10 and 10.29. Market may steady or up side between 11.20 and 11.47. Market may close at down to previous closing.
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Opening Bell Call
Buy
ABB - ABB Limited
CIPLA - Cipla Ltd
IDBI - IDBI Bank Limited
JPASSOCIAT - Jaiprakash Associates Limited
GSPL - Gujarat State Petronet Limited
On 13th August 2008 - The BSE Sensex closed at 15,093 (down 119 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4,529 (down 23 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
NDTV - New Delhi Television Limited
IFCI - IFCI Limited
DENABANK - Dena Bank
AMDIND - AMD Industries Limited
ISPATIND - Ispat Industries Limited
Technical Analysis for 14th August 2008
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 15126, 15053, 14980, 14923, 14867, 14737, 14608
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 15182, 15239, 15312, 15385, 15514, 15644, 15773
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 4532, 4513, 4493, 4475, 4457, 4420, 4382, 4345
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4550, 4568, 4588, 4607, 4645, 4682, 4720, 4757
Sensex technical View :
A nothing day on the index. Technically still the range of 14900 to 15800 remains. Till we dont see a clear break out move on either side its a wait and watch approach. If we consider that 15580 is an intermediate top then we need to look into the retracements . 38 % retracement is placed at 14400.
Well nowadays lot of ppl r tracking crude and gold so will put some views.
Crude has come down to 112 -113 from 148 levels and is near supports. A bounce to 118-122 is a good possibility. Only a move above 126 zones would need a look in .
Gold seems to be settling arnd 800-810 zone and a bounce to 840 is possible. I dont track it closely though.
Stocks to watchout for :
Stocks with positive bias :
Lupin needs to sustain 770 levels for move up
Crompton Greaves 275 if sustains could see 290.
Sun Pharma Advanced above 90-92 can touch 105.
Stocks with negative bias:
Aban Offshore if sustains below 2350-2400 can go to 2200.
Nifty has closed just above the trendline, but if we have a gap dwn open, it will be broken. and nifty should tgt atleast 4473-4453.
A closing below 4520 would mean tht nifty will fall to the 2nd trend line so a tgt of 4312.
also ril & sbi is weak for the day, so that will definately put some pressure on nifty.
Breakouts DISHTV and COREPROTEC
Mundra Port and SEZ (daily, six months)
This stock has broken out of 600 barrier yesterday with good volumes and looks set for a rally. Indicating a break out on weekly charts as well. One could accumulate this stock on dips. As a contrarian buy I am also tracking Tata Steel to buy it below 600. It would be a great buy at 550 or so.
Markets are correcting as we had anticipated. Consolidation is good for all of us.
morning thoughts..
As expected and said markets recovered in the second half and has showed resilience.
From a technical point of view the market have crucial supports at 15050 levels on sensex and 4475 on nifty.
Any dip near this levels will see buying and will provide cushion to the markets.
However on the upper side the markets need to sustain above 4650 levels for an upmove towards 4800 levels
The markets are likely to be volatile and swinging on both side.
Moreover after initial weakness the markets are likely to recover from days low.
One must be quick and book fast profits.
The supports for the nifty is at 4475 levels and resistance at 4650 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 15050 levels and resistance at 15700 levels
Stocks to watch
Global vectra
Mrcator lines
The Indian market opened on weak note and traded in narrow range through out the session .For coming session we can say Make or Break day nifty is near trend line if it break trend line we can test 4430-4370 can seen on the other side 4580-4610 will act as resistances zone
Cairn India : (241.15) Buy CAIRN above 240 for a target of 251, stoploss at 235.
Axis Bank : (725.10) Sell AXIS BANK between 732-728 for a target of 705-685, stoploss at 742.
ICICI Bank : (710.70) Sell ICICI BANK between 718-712 for a target of 690-675, stoploss at 725.
Sensex : (15093.12) Today Sensex face resistance at 15126, if cross 15126 then goes up to 15240-15388. Sensex find support at 14978, if 14978 break then goes down up to 14864-14716.
Nifty : (4529) Today Nifty face resistance at 4550, if cross 4550 then goes up to 4600. Nifty find support at 4493, if 4493 break then goes down up to 4450-4395.
sensex chart, going forward sensex will be facing strong resistance on upper line of trend channel, 400 dma, and two very important fibo lvls all converging at the same place!!!
strategy: booking profits and initiating hedged shorts near these lvls when sensex reacts and comes down from there, fresh longs only above the circled area if sensex stays above the resistance area for a few days.
Above is the daily chart of the Nifty. As can be seen, the Nifty had clearly broken out of a bullish head and shoulders pattern a few days ago but a decisive breakout like candle was not seen. In the absence of such a candle, it is difficult to say whether the breakout was genuine or not. By the looks of it, it does look like a bullish head and shoulders pattern and one look at the chart shows a clear breakout. But with no big volumes, after the breakout, this pattern could easily fail. It is too early to say whether the last two days of red candles is a failure or a pullback to the neckline. If the prices do find support near the neckline and turn around, then it would be considered as a pullback only. I have drawn the neckline as the solid green line but the market could very well consider the neckline to be placed lower near the dotted green line. Expect support between the 4350-4450 range. If these levels are broken then this pattern would be considered as a failure and we should be ready to see newer lows.
Breakouts DISHTV and COREPROTEC
Mundra Port and SEZ (daily, six months)This stock has broken out of 600 barrier yesterday with good volumes and looks set for a rally. Indicating a break out on weekly charts as well. One could accumulate this stock on dips. As a contrarian buy I am also tracking Tata Steel to buy it below 600. It would be a great buy at 550 or so.
Markets are correcting as we had anticipated. Consolidation is good for all of us.
morning thoughts..
As expected and said markets recovered in the second half and has showed resilience.
From a technical point of view the market have crucial supports at 15050 levels on sensex and 4475 on nifty.
Any dip near this levels will see buying and will provide cushion to the markets.
However on the upper side the markets need to sustain above 4650 levels for an upmove towards 4800 levels
The markets are likely to be volatile and swinging on both side.
Moreover after initial weakness the markets are likely to recover from days low.
One must be quick and book fast profits.
The supports for the nifty is at 4475 levels and resistance at 4650 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 15050 levels and resistance at 15700 levels
Stocks to watch
Global vectra
Mrcator lines
The Indian market opened on weak note and traded in narrow range through out the session .For coming session we can say Make or Break day nifty is near trend line if it break trend line we can test 4430-4370 can seen on the other side 4580-4610 will act as resistances zone
Cairn India : (241.15) Buy CAIRN above 240 for a target of 251, stoploss at 235.
Axis Bank : (725.10) Sell AXIS BANK between 732-728 for a target of 705-685, stoploss at 742.
ICICI Bank : (710.70) Sell ICICI BANK between 718-712 for a target of 690-675, stoploss at 725.
Sensex : (15093.12) Today Sensex face resistance at 15126, if cross 15126 then goes up to 15240-15388. Sensex find support at 14978, if 14978 break then goes down up to 14864-14716.
Nifty : (4529) Today Nifty face resistance at 4550, if cross 4550 then goes up to 4600. Nifty find support at 4493, if 4493 break then goes down up to 4450-4395.
sensex chart, going forward sensex will be facing strong resistance on upper line of trend channel, 400 dma, and two very important fibo lvls all converging at the same place!!!
strategy: booking profits and initiating hedged shorts near these lvls when sensex reacts and comes down from there, fresh longs only above the circled area if sensex stays above the resistance area for a few days.
SEBI Board Meet Outcome:
Right Issue time period 43 days from 109 days.-QIP issue at last 2 weeks average price.-No decision on P-Notes, They discussed on P-NOTES data but no decision on it.-Consolidated Results will be given within 2 months
Friends, I would like to apologize for yesterday. I had gone out somewhere and when I came back home, some guests were over and left well past midnight and then it was too late to study charts and share my analysis with you. Today again it is very late in the night, yet I came back to share with you my thoughts because I do not want my readers and subscribers to go without analysis for two days in a row. Today is a very happy day for me. If you see in the left sidebar, on the top left corner first of all, a clock is there below which is a link to subscribe to my daily newsletters via e-mail or through a reader. If you can see the orange counter, you would see that I have now more than 100 subscribers who are getting my daily analysis by email. I’m sure that with the support and co-operation of my readers, this number would continue to grow by leaps and bounds. (Amen!!!)
The Nifty, over the last 6 days has given a total range of less than 200 points. Range of 6 days is calculated as the difference between the highest and the lowest price in these 6 days. This works out to a nearly 4% range in 6 days. Looking at the closing price, it has just risen by 12 points in the last 6 days. There seems to be something wrong somewhere. As I mentioned in my last post I am just not convinced with the rise even after so many positives have been seen. I asked for an opinion from my readers about what they feel about the markets in different time frames and the opinion seems to be divided. Sanjay has given a very interesting observation that while he expects the market to come down in the next 2 months, he is very optimistic about it with a 2 year time horizon in mind. I somehow tend to carry the same view as Sanjay. Once we have seen the worst of the world recession, there would be a new beginning and we would touch much higher highs than what were seen last time but the recovery, initially, would be a gradual process. A 800 points rally in 2-3 weeks is not a sign of a new beginning. Piyush Modi also has left a very good comment on the same post on my old blog and what he says does make sense. Fundamentally, things do seem to be looking a little better but it is too early to say whether this improvement is only temporary or it is for here to stay.
The Nifty, over the last 6 days has given a total range of less than 200 points. Range of 6 days is calculated as the difference between the highest and the lowest price in these 6 days. This works out to a nearly 4% range in 6 days. Looking at the closing price, it has just risen by 12 points in the last 6 days. There seems to be something wrong somewhere. As I mentioned in my last post I am just not convinced with the rise even after so many positives have been seen. I asked for an opinion from my readers about what they feel about the markets in different time frames and the opinion seems to be divided. Sanjay has given a very interesting observation that while he expects the market to come down in the next 2 months, he is very optimistic about it with a 2 year time horizon in mind. I somehow tend to carry the same view as Sanjay. Once we have seen the worst of the world recession, there would be a new beginning and we would touch much higher highs than what were seen last time but the recovery, initially, would be a gradual process. A 800 points rally in 2-3 weeks is not a sign of a new beginning. Piyush Modi also has left a very good comment on the same post on my old blog and what he says does make sense. Fundamentally, things do seem to be looking a little better but it is too early to say whether this improvement is only temporary or it is for here to stay.
Above is the daily chart of the Nifty. As can be seen, the Nifty had clearly broken out of a bullish head and shoulders pattern a few days ago but a decisive breakout like candle was not seen. In the absence of such a candle, it is difficult to say whether the breakout was genuine or not. By the looks of it, it does look like a bullish head and shoulders pattern and one look at the chart shows a clear breakout. But with no big volumes, after the breakout, this pattern could easily fail. It is too early to say whether the last two days of red candles is a failure or a pullback to the neckline. If the prices do find support near the neckline and turn around, then it would be considered as a pullback only. I have drawn the neckline as the solid green line but the market could very well consider the neckline to be placed lower near the dotted green line. Expect support between the 4350-4450 range. If these levels are broken then this pattern would be considered as a failure and we should be ready to see newer lows.
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