Few days back the view was clear that its time to book profits at 15500-15800. Although markets could not go to the 15800 tgt it reached 15580 before dipping back. The current dip should come down till the fibonacci levels of 14400/14050/13700. Technically would prefer a dip in the zone of 38/50 % from where a bounceback can be seen. As discussed before the correction phase from 12500 could last 50 odd sessions in the corrective and upsides are 15800 -16400 and 13700 on lower side. So expect a range bound moves inside the above zones.
Stocks to watchout for :
Ansal Infra seems to be staging a bounce back and can tgt 120 + .
Insecticides India seems to have given a breaout on charts. Sustaining 60 levels could see a move to 75 + and the sector seems to be in demand. Can be bought arnd 55 stop of 51.
Sunday Thoughts :
In the last few months the move up from 12500 to 15500 has caught lot of people on the wrong side of it or totally missed the action. Although people may term it Bear Rally ! and ya it is but everyoone out here is a trader/investor so what matters the returns a rally or a fall can generate. So in that case the move up is almost 25 % from the lows on the INDEX.
As being a techie and with a bias to statistical obervations just checked out the current 25 % rise was one of the fastest ever scene on the index in arnd 18-20 sessions. Many people consider Oct to Jan was a good time i suppose but it too 3 mths for index to rise 25 % ... Only a fed move , Bounce after Jan crash were as fast as this one.
Although we have just seen Index lets have a look on some of the best performers from lows to high and many of them were our favourite picks in the correction !
RCAP - 50-55 %
LIC Housing 60-63%
BOI 55-58 %
SBI 60-63 %
TAta Chemicals 65-70 %
Well this kind of returns in large cap stocs takes arnd 3-6 or more months. So even if one has done gradual buying and partial bookings every stock above gave a minimum return of 30 % !. Thats a decent performance ;) .Even others like RPL , Reliance in large caps bounced 20 % +. IFCI 50% , Praj 25 % all were recommended in client calls for investment. Tata Steel,IDFC were laggards.
Statistically it means even if this is a BEAR RALLY if one goes for good researched stock picking at the current time such a move could give much better returns then a secular bull run.
Well its easier said then done coz it does require patience and a clear view to go buying at value and panic levels or go staggered in a drifting market when the world around is shouting 9-10k !!! . But i believe thats what investing is all about patience and belief ! .
We had a clear view at 14100 to 12.5k to go for staggered buying into stock specific picks which turned out to be the best performers !! . And as part of discipline the profits booked partially according to stock specific gains and rest at 15100( 50-70 % ) and 15500 ( rest totally) .
Yet again i believe lots of investors are undecided . There is a section which is which missed 12k levels wanting it back and other expecting 16-17k to exit the stock stuck at 21k ! ...
But one thing that i have observed and heard from seniors which will end the topic is
" If Markets start following the consensus of the normal marketmen/investor/trader then it would no more be an exciting place to do BUSINESS !
CALL FOR TODAY
SHORT SUZLON IN CASH BELOW 232.40 WITH SL OF 236 TGTS 228/226/222/218
The markets remained volatile as expected and kept swinging on both sides.
Technically the markets still looks weak with bouts of volatility and sluggishness.
However the markets are nearing to cushion and crucial support zones and is viable for a bounce back.
Moreover the 3rd day rule and 3.25% retracement levels for a bounce is ripe.
Structurally the markets will be highly volatile and will keep on swinging on both side.
However after initial dip and weakness , one might see some strength and positive bias around 1.-2 pm
With the change of Jupiter and mercury into mars , it will play a deceptive role .
This conjunction indicates that a very high deceptive situation is likely to be created in the markets which will trap both bulls and the bears.
But with the onset of amavasya , the markets can turn tide any moment and become highly bullish anytime and vice- versa
The supports for the nifty is at 4250 levels and resistance at 4505 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14455 levels and resistance at 14995 levels
The Indian market opened on weak note and it was lackluster day nifty was hovering in small range with choppiness through out the day. For the coming the session we can see more weakness below 4386 it can test 4321-4264 on the other side above 4440 it can test 4474-4501.
The Bulls and bears made every effort to win over the other but finally Bulls eased the way but the strength is intact. The markets are likely to be in the range bound for some more time as the uncertainties are not eased out or the triggers for the rally are fired. As suggested in the morning the Nifty could not cross the resistance at 4465 and made a high of 4447.40 and the low touched at 4379.85, closed at 4393.05 level.
(….The Nifty has support level but failed to close above the resistance level at 4463-65 level. The Nifty may face now resistance at 4485-91 level but the support is at 4366-69 level. The Nifty may not breach the psychological support level at 4401-05 level, the Bulls might fight for that level).
The MARKET pulse check by STOCKOMETER: In the Stock Specific Action, suggested that the … RIL is good above 2285-93 level and become weak below 2251-45 level. The RIL high at 2290 and low at 2210.20
The ONGC is struggling to cross 1085 level but the support is at 1040 level. The ONGC still find it difficult to cross the resistance but took support at the support level. The high at 1085 and low at 1040.55
The Relcap is good above 1361-63 level; The Relcap high at 1354 and low at 1280.30
ICICI bank shall trade above the resistance at 703-705 level. The ICICI high at 689.70 and low at 660.75
The SBI is good above 1472 and weak below 1450 level. The SBI high at 1477.70 and low at 1425.10
The telecom giants fight may reflect in their prices also. The Bharti is good above 728-31 level. The high at 828.80 and low at 800.90
and RCOM is good above 436 level The high at 425.95 and low at 411.0 far below the support level.
The Tata Steel is good above 620-21 level and weak below 608-06 level. The high at 621.05 and low at 599
The Sail is good above 146 level. The high at 145 and low at 138.25
The DLF may find bottom support at 490-89 level, The high at 509 and low at 486.40
JP may get support at 168-69 level. The high at 176.5 and low at 167.55
Above all the RPL which is weak below 163 nose dived to 155 level. The High touched at 163.50 and the low was at 155.1
1. Motilal Oswal has recommended stock Nestle India as Buy With target price for stock as 1,900.00
2. India Infoline has recommended stock SBI as Sell with target price for stock as 1,260.00
3. Macquarie has recommended stock Tata Consultancy as Outperformer with target price for stock as 1,050.00
4. CLSA has recommended stock JSW Steel as Outperform with target price for stock as 950.00
As mentioned in yesterday’s post, there are supports available on the 30 minutes and 60 minutes charts between 4330 and 4350 and on the daily charts near the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, which could be anywhere between 4330 and 4400. Seen above is the daily chart for Nifty. This chart has three new trendlines drawn and all of them suggest support just below today’s low of 4379. With so many supports available between the 4330 and 4380 levels, there is quite a possibility that this support may hold. In case it does hold, and the Nifty crosses today’s high of 4448, we should become buyers. In case we encounter weakness tomorrow and the Nifty comes below 4330, we are looking at more downside which may (or may not) find support near 4200. Looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also, it can be seen that there is support for it too near the trendline. Despite a fall of 270 points in the Nifty, which works out to roughly 6% fall in the index, the RSI has fallen from 64 to 50 only.
Since so many supports are available at 4330, we should assume that this support is likely to hold. And if it is broken, it will be quite significant for the markets and while the next support is available near 4200, even that may not hold. What the markets actually decide to do is for the market to decide. For tomorrow (today) the plan should be to go long above 4450 and go short below 4330.
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1. BSE and NSE Trend: Indian stock market is likely to trade directionless for a few more coming days. Nifty is trading below key level as suggested yesterday.The short-term trend is down for stock market. Indian stock market trend is not clear and thus avoid going long till the time this picture becomes clear. Technical recovery likely in morning in BSE and NSE. Sensex has to move above 15001 level to show some strength.
2. Profit from Indian stock tips:Infosys gave a profit of Rs 3200, Polaris gave a profit of Rs 230 for every one hundred shares traded as per given tip by Analyst. Remaining all stocks did not reach the entry price set up and thus trade was not executed.
3. Free Strong Future Stocks input for NSE
Polaris software
Ansal prop&inf
Bata
Cummins India
Aptech Training
Bongaigaon
Rolta
Strides Arcolab
ONGC
Gateway distripak
4. Trade with knowledge of Weak future stocks data
Bombay Dyeing
Amtek
Housing Dev & In
NDTV
Aban
Rel
Hindalco
LancoInf
S.kumar
Sun TV
5. Indian stock tips worth tradig to generate profit
Buy Bata>179.1,181,184 sl 175.5
Buy Amar Raja Battery>151.1,157,167 sl 146.8
Buy Infosys>1705.1,1725,1750 sl 1698.8
Buy Dr Reddy>610.1,613,622 sl 606.8
TOP BUYS FOR TUESDAY
Infosys Technologies
Stop loss 1650 Target 2100
Amara Raja Batteries
Stop loss 138 Target 178
Polaris Software
Stop loss 98 Target 139
MIC Electronics
Stop loss 135 Target 162
Noida Toll Bridge
Stop loss 39 Target 74
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