MUMNDRA ABove 591 Target 598-613 STOP LOSS 585
Market may open down. Market may up between 09.57 and 10.14 Market may steady or up side between 12.01 and 12.22. Market may close at down to previous closing.
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Opening Bell Call
Buy
RELIANCE - Reliance Industries Ltd
SUNPHARMA - Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd
HINDUNILVR - Hindustan Unilever Limited
INFOSYSTCH - Infosys Technologies Ltd.
CHAMBLFERT - Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd
On 25th August 2008 - The BSE Sensex closed at 14,450 (up 48 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4,335 (up 7 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
TECHM - Tech Mahindra Limited
RPL - Reliance Petroleum Limited
IFCI - IFCI Limited
RNRL - Reliance Natural Resources Limited
MTNL - Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd.
Technical Analysis for 26th August 2008
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 14512, 14433, 14353, 14305, 14256, 14128, 14000
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 14561, 14609, 14689, 14768, 14896, 15024, 15152
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 4350, 4326, 4302, 4285, 4269, 4228, 4188, 4147
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4366, 4383, 4407, 4431, 4471, 4512, 4552, 4593
Sensex Technical View :
For a change Indian markets and world markets have not given some shocks and are staying sluggish , can remain in boring period for some time. Sensex 13700/14050 and 14800-15100 on upside ar the range for now . It could be a difficult time for traders as there are no major directional moves.
Market observations and Thoughts :
GHCL pulls up a bit.
Merill Lynch has added a 1% stake in Ansal Infra as per bse deals but the stock still doesnt seem to be pulling up.
Tata Steel is in a crucial stage either it can go to 700 from here or 450. 550 is the level which will decide.
Crude and Gold are taking a break for some time after lot of ups and downs. Crude 108-110 if broken can lead to another big dip. Gold 780-840 for now.
Stocks to watchout for :
Kilitch wait for brkout, Coromandel dipped for adding with 2-4 % stop,GHCL , Lokesh and Ennore so morning moves which fizzled but look good. Tinplate up 15-18 % .
No particular stock looking exciting enough.
Nifty will open weak arnd 4286, and if 4286 is broken, will fall straight to 4250 levels.
now 4250 is a very important level, if it is held, nifty will reverse and can move up to 4353 levels for the day frm there.
but if 4250 breaks, close all longs as we may see an expiry of 4160 levels
Breakout 25/08/2008 EDUCOMP.
Breakout list and market statistics updated.Link on side bar
Iam not too much bearish on nifty stocks.Because for me it looks like a well manipulated game by the operators to slide the Nifty well above and outside trendline as shown and to move the market up from there. And Chance of reversal anywhere between 4156-4200 levels should be used as a buy on dips investing strategy.One should be highly bearish only if nifty dips below the trendline.
Till then Nifty remains a pure buy rating.
Buy Future Capital Holdings - Target 380 - Within Two Months
The Indian market opened on higher note but not able to sustain at higher levels and closed sharply lower from the days high .Nifty is facing resistances near 4370-4400 levels .For coming session below 4305 nifty can test4284-4250 levels on the other side 4370-4390 will act resistances zone
As I said in yesterday’s post, the Nifty has been alternating between up days and down days since the last 5 days. Though, today also happens to be a day marginally in the green, yet a gravestone doji (or a candle with a long upper shadow and a small body) is a sign of weakness. This should bring the markets down and the Nifty may finally find support between 4150 and 4200. If 4150 is also broken on the downside, we should be looking at a target between 3800 and 3900. The trend, as yet is not clear. We are in a short term downtrend while the intermediate term is sideways. To predict/forecast analyse, what will happen in the short term and the intermediate term, I am doing the analysis on both the 30 minutes charts and the daily charts.
Attached above is the 30 minutes chart of the Nifty. Seen on the chart is a trendline joining the different pivot highs and lows made during the month of August. Shown in the bottom portion of the chart is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and superimposed on the prices is the Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD). Let us discuss each one in detail and try and analyse which way the prices will move in the immediate short term. First, let us look at the RSI. The RSI today made a pivot high higher than the last pivot high which was made on 20th. The prices corresponding to these highs are seen making lower highs. Looking at the lows formed in the Nifty on 18th and on 22nd, the RSI at the same time is seen at the same level and is not making newer lows. So, as marked by the green arrows, there are two instances of a positive divergence occurring between the price and the RSI. But a divergence is just an indication of a reversal and not a confirmation. A confirmation will come if the trendline is broken towards the upside, i.e. if the Nifty were to go above 4370. If it turns back tomorrow and does cross 4370, it would also have made a small bullish head and shoulders pattern, the target for which would be close to 4520.
But like all coins, this has a flip side to it too. Coming back to the RSI, as marked in the circles, we can see that the RSI is finding resistance near 60, which is not exactly a sign of a bull market. Looking at the trendline, we can see that today was the sixth occasion that the Nifty tried to go above the trendline in this month but failed. Assuming that this would continue to provide resistance would be bearish for the markets. Also looking at the MACD which has been superimposed on the prices, we can see that unless the Nifty recovers drastically tomorrow, we shall get a sell signal from the MACD too.
Above is the daily chart of the Nifty and an attempt has been made to study the intermediate term trend of the Nifty. As mentioned yesterday, the Nifty has now entered a sideways phase between 4200 and 4650 and would not give us a clear signal till it comes out of this range either on the upside or on the downside. If we have a look at the RSI, we can see that it has now broken the trendline which was providing support to it since the last few days and has bearish implications. These bearish implications would be cancelled if the RSI finds support near 40 and turns back. As far as the MACD is concerned, as mentioned in a post a few days ago, the sell signal which was generated is still valid and again has bearish implications for the markets. So, all in all, I am expecting the markets to perform poorly in the next 2-3 days.
Nifty (4335) Sup 4250 Res 4400
Buy Sterlite (619) SL 613
Target 632, 634
Buy HUL (243) SL 239
Target 251, 253
Sell Kotak Bank (583) SL 588 Target 573, 570
Sell Tata Steel (585) SL 590 Target 575, 573
Sell Unitech (160) SL 163
Target 154,153
Dated: August 25, 2008
CHAMBAL FERTILIZER (78.70)
The stock chart has made a bearish pattern in daily charts. Buying should be avoided in it unless it crosses 84.50.
On the downside the stock can decline up to 70 - 72.50 levels.
Sensex : (14450.35) Today Sensex face resistance at 14508, if cross 14508 then goes up to 14616 and 14782. Sensex find support at 14342, if break 14342 then goes down up to 14234 and 14068.
Nifty : (4335.35) Today Nifty face resistance at 4350, if cross 4350 then goes up to 4384 and 4433. Nifty find support at 4301, if break 4301 then fall up to 4267 -4218.
Breakout 25/08/2008 EDUCOMP.
Breakout list and market statistics updated.Link on side bar
CMP : 4335
Nifty Hourly Charts Indicating a strong downtrend Channel. And this time possibly Nifty may test 4156-4200 levels.
Iam not too much bearish on nifty stocks.Because for me it looks like a well manipulated game by the operators to slide the Nifty well above and outside trendline as shown and to move the market up from there. And Chance of reversal anywhere between 4156-4200 levels should be used as a buy on dips investing strategy.One should be highly bearish only if nifty dips below the trendline.
Till then Nifty remains a pure buy rating.
Nifty :: Unable to hold at higher level and made one bullish candle pattern Inverted Hammer and One bearish candle pattern Shooting Star..No sign of clear trend in yesterday chart.. Watch break down level 4325 and breakout level 4342.. Below 4325 next supports comes at 4280/4258/4248/4219/4118.. Above 4342 next resistance for up move at 4353/4388/4400/4460.. Our strategy for 26th Aug. Up to 4248 buy on deep(S.L 4248) Sell at high (S.L 4400)..
Buy Divi's Lab - Target 1550 - Within Two MonthsBuy Future Capital Holdings - Target 380 - Within Two Months
The Indian market opened on higher note but not able to sustain at higher levels and closed sharply lower from the days high .Nifty is facing resistances near 4370-4400 levels .For coming session below 4305 nifty can test4284-4250 levels on the other side 4370-4390 will act resistances zoneAs expected, with global cues being strong, the Nifty did open with an upwards gap of about 70 points and then stabilized around those levels till about 12:30pm and then commenced falling. The fall was sharp and severe and the gap with which the market opened, was filled/closed today itself. The Nifty closed exactly at the same level as yesterday’s close and thus formed a gravestone doji. If one looks at the chart, it does not exactly look like a gravestone doji because NSE takes the closing price as the average of the last 30 minutes of trade. Taking actual closing prices of yesterday and today, one can realize that this is a gravestone doji. This is what Street Authority says about a gravestone doji.
As I said in yesterday’s post, the Nifty has been alternating between up days and down days since the last 5 days. Though, today also happens to be a day marginally in the green, yet a gravestone doji (or a candle with a long upper shadow and a small body) is a sign of weakness. This should bring the markets down and the Nifty may finally find support between 4150 and 4200. If 4150 is also broken on the downside, we should be looking at a target between 3800 and 3900. The trend, as yet is not clear. We are in a short term downtrend while the intermediate term is sideways. To 
Attached above is the 30 minutes chart of the Nifty. Seen on the chart is a trendline joining the different pivot highs and lows made during the month of August. Shown in the bottom portion of the chart is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and superimposed on the prices is the Moving Averages Convergence Divergence (MACD). Let us discuss each one in detail and try and analyse which way the prices will move in the immediate short term. First, let us look at the RSI. The RSI today made a pivot high higher than the last pivot high which was made on 20th. The prices corresponding to these highs are seen making lower highs. Looking at the lows formed in the Nifty on 18th and on 22nd, the RSI at the same time is seen at the same level and is not making newer lows. So, as marked by the green arrows, there are two instances of a positive divergence occurring between the price and the RSI. But a divergence is just an indication of a reversal and not a confirmation. A confirmation will come if the trendline is broken towards the upside, i.e. if the Nifty were to go above 4370. If it turns back tomorrow and does cross 4370, it would also have made a small bullish head and shoulders pattern, the target for which would be close to 4520.But like all coins, this has a flip side to it too. Coming back to the RSI, as marked in the circles, we can see that the RSI is finding resistance near 60, which is not exactly a sign of a bull market. Looking at the trendline, we can see that today was the sixth occasion that the Nifty tried to go above the trendline in this month but failed. Assuming that this would continue to provide resistance would be bearish for the markets. Also looking at the MACD which has been superimposed on the prices, we can see that unless the Nifty recovers drastically tomorrow, we shall get a sell signal from the MACD too.
Above is the daily chart of the Nifty and an attempt has been made to study the intermediate term trend of the Nifty. As mentioned yesterday, the Nifty has now entered a sideways phase between 4200 and 4650 and would not give us a clear signal till it comes out of this range either on the upside or on the downside. If we have a look at the RSI, we can see that it has now broken the trendline which was providing support to it since the last few days and has bearish implications. These bearish implications would be cancelled if the RSI finds support near 40 and turns back. As far as the MACD is concerned, as mentioned in a post a few days ago, the sell signal which was generated is still valid and again has bearish implications for the markets. So, all in all, I am expecting the markets to perform poorly in the next 2-3 days.Nifty (4335) Sup 4250 Res 4400
Buy Sterlite (619) SL 613
Target 632, 634
Buy HUL (243) SL 239
Target 251, 253
Sell Kotak Bank (583) SL 588 Target 573, 570
Sell Tata Steel (585) SL 590 Target 575, 573
Sell Unitech (160) SL 163
Target 154,153
Dated: August 25, 2008
CHAMBAL FERTILIZER (78.70)
The stock chart has made a bearish pattern in daily charts. Buying should be avoided in it unless it crosses 84.50.
On the downside the stock can decline up to 70 - 72.50 levels.
Sensex : (14450.35) Today Sensex face resistance at 14508, if cross 14508 then goes up to 14616 and 14782. Sensex find support at 14342, if break 14342 then goes down up to 14234 and 14068.
Nifty : (4335.35) Today Nifty face resistance at 4350, if cross 4350 then goes up to 4384 and 4433. Nifty find support at 4301, if break 4301 then fall up to 4267 -4218.
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