01-Aug-2008
Following stocks are recommended for LONG Script Prev. Close Recommended Price Target 1 Target 2 Stoploss TATACHEM
31JUL2008320.0500 325.0000 335.0000 344.5000 317.0000 HOLD FOR TWO DAYS. ROLTA
31JUL2008312.8500 320.5000 339.0000 348.0000 310.0000 HOLD FOR TWO DAYS TO TARGET2. Following stocks are recommended for SHORT Script Prev. Close Recommended Price Target 1 Target 2 Stoploss No recommendation for SHORT positions today.
MARKET STILL IN UPTREND STARTED ON WEDNESDAY, IF MARKET TRADES ABOVE 4353 (NIFTY SPOT) THEN EXPECT 4385 AND 4440.
We Booked our Positional BUY Calls WIPRO at 442 (BUY CALL INITIATED at 422 on THURDSDAY), BALRAMCHIN at 86 (BUY CALL ISSUED AT 81)!!! CHEERS!!!.
HOT STOCKS for Today (01-Aug-2008 FRIDAY)
| | BUY HINDUNILVR Above 242 SL 239.50 TGT 245, 247 | |
| BUY SESAGOA Above 3400 SL 3370 TGT 3445, 3485 | ||
| BUY SAIL Above 142 SL 140.50 TGT 144, 146.50 | ||
| BUY TATACHEM Above 325 SL 319.50 TGT 332, 336 | ||
| BUY ESSAROIL Above 192 SL 188.50 TGT 196, 197.50 | ||
| SELL ABB BELOW 765 SL 771.50 TGT 753, 726 | ||
| SELL APTECHT BELOW 185 SL 188.60 TGT 181, 177.50 | ||
| SELL PNB BELOW 446 SL 452 TGT 440, 435 | ||
| SELL CUMMINSIND BELOW 278 SL 281.25 TGT 274, 270 | ||
| SELL NAGARCONST BELOW 128.50 SL 130.50 TGT 124.50, 122.50 | ||
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Nifty Future could See 4900 -
Nifty Future is looking good on chart. If it manages to trade above 4535 for a day or two we could safely say, we can see 4900 in August.
With Crude cooling down and World market stabilising ,there is a high probability of Nifty futures moving up and going towards 4900 .
On the down side there is a good support at 4110 to 4070.
One can buy at dips with suitable stoploss. I will try to post some Options Strategy at dips, so that the risk is reduced much and one can gain for bigger targets.
The Indian market opened on positive note and trade in narrow zone between 4285 and 4342 levels. Market saw volatility for throughout the trading session and managed to close in green zone. For coming session if nifty able to cross 4361 we can see more upside toward 4410-4440 levels ,breaking below 4284 level witness some selling pressure 4240-4260 will act support zone
Market may open Down . Market may up between 11.00 and 11.24. Market may steady or up side between 12.13 and 12.31. Market may close at Down to previous closing.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS
Opening Bell Call
Buy
Do not buy anything
On 31st July 2008 - The BSE Sensex closed at 14,356 (Up 69 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4,333 (Up 19 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
RELIANCE - Reliance Industries Ltd
RELCAPITAL - Reliance Capital Limited
ORCHIDCHEM - Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd
ASIANHOTEL - Asian Hotels Ltd
RAJRAYON - Raj Rayon Limited
RECLTD - Rural Electrification Corporation Limited
Technical Analysis for 1st August 2008
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 14203, 14144, 14085, 13984, 13883, 13723, 13563
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 14304, 14405, 14464, 14523, 14683, 14843, 15003
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 4277, 4252, 4227, 4184, 4141, 4073, 4005, 3937
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4320, 4363, 4388, 4413, 4481, 4549, 4617, 4685
Sensex Technical View :
Yet another nothing day on the indices .
Sensex has gaps left at 14484-14608 while one of the gaps was yesterday . The above gap is a level to watch. As we have seen in previous post till Sensex sustains 13500 and doesnt break 15100 we can expect markets to stay in the narrow range and swing to different cues. Till we dont see a move out of this range traders will need to be cautious and dont go leveraged as it would be a small range in which markets could swing and would be better to take stock specific view then index view .
Stocks to watchout for :
Sugars steady , MTNL flops ibulls stable , Kolte patil ckt KRBL down, ACC not able to breakout ,Tips inds moves above 53 does 60 ...
the volatility in recent days has lead to false moves in some stocks and trading positions being stopped and thats the reason one has to reduce the general qty one takes till we dont see a clear move. ACC moved up but retraced back , Triveni jumps but back again . Volatile markets implies to reduce exposures till a move out from range happens for traders.
3 charts have beeen put down in the post below Lupin , titan and Aban
DLF could give a trading bounce if sustains above 520 . GMR infra is also looking promising buy on dips arnd 90 stop of 87 tgt 100.
Fundamental pick -- for slow and steady returns.
First Leasing ( 500145 )
The stock is a good defensive bet in current market conditions . Cmp 44 has a downside risk of 10 % but in better day could give a good upside. Book value of 65 + consistent dividend yield of 5 % + . Investors can lock in some amount of money for stability in the portfolio. Can tgt 52-60 levels conservatively over next 6-12 mths.
Some charts of lupin,titan,aban
Lupin -- Excellent cup and handle pattern. We need to watchout for a close above 760 which can take the stock to 850 + level.
Aban Lloyd --- The stock is forming a very negative but it will only be confirmed if it sustains below 2400 levels. So wait let it close below !!
TITAN --- Can it breakout from the triangle pattern with supporting volumes. Needs to be tracked in coming sessions.
Astrology
As said and expected volatility was at its best and markets gave two sided wild swings and trapped both bulls and bears
Technically the markets are still weak and undecided and a retest of 4065 levels are likely in the short term.
Structurally the markets are in a whipsaw mode and will give wild swings.
Astrologically there has been a major change of planets today
However the sensex has crucial supports at 14145 levels and 4272 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14145 levels and resistance at 14450 levels
The supports for the nifty is at 4272 levels and resistance at 4345 levels
As we swing into August, the major astrological focus is eclipses. The month kicks off with a dramatic solar eclipse in Leo on August 1, followed by an equally dramatic lunar eclipse in Aquarius.
An eclipse is an astronomical event that occurs when one celestial object moves into the shadow of another. A solar eclipse occurs when the Moon's shadow crosses the Earth's surface, and a lunar eclipse is just the opposite, when the Moon moves into the shadow of the Earth.
So what do these attention-grabbing eclipses mean for you? Leo is known for being quite dramatic, and solar eclipses are known for their emotional intensity. With the solar eclipse occurring in Leo, expect bold headlines and plenty of 'breaking news.' All eclipses occur at a new Moon -- a time of new beginnings -- making this a truly important event. The word 'eclipse' means that something dramatic or attention-getting has occurred, captivating our attention enough to pull it away from something -- or someone -- else. Knowing where this eclipse lands in your own chart and what planets are touched by it will give you information about an important area in your life that deserves your focus.
Lunar eclipses are visually dramatic -- and they portend dramatic earthly events as well! The lunar eclipse in Aquarius on August 16 is no exception. There are dynamic aspects present in this eclipse, including a Sun/Neptune opposition and a Mars/Pluto square. An 'explain yourself' Saturn/Mercury conjunction also shows up. Watch what you say, because somebody takes the gloves off in the midst of a rather confusing situation!
Alert,cautious or celebration time...will this mahakal amavasya solar eclipse take nifty to 3650 or 4800
Astroeye sees it coming in the month of…..? nifty 3650 or 4800
After retesting 4065 levels , will nifty bounce or crack to 3650…?
As per our advance predictions all metal stocks outperforms
The correction big picture
The bigger picture on the past 6 months correction. I know there are other possible and more bullish alternates but I prefer this one until I see evidence disproving this. All my comments are on the chart - Open in a new window to view.
EWT can be confusing to newbies but I will be happy to explain in case anyone has any questions.
Nifty :: Rang treading activity seen in last day of Fno Settlement .. Close smoothly with positive bias. Still Nifty above raising channel, facing strong hurdle at higher level… Watch two strong resistances for 1st Aug. 4357/4379.. Momentum turns up only above 4379 and strong only above 4457... Down side strong support at 4282/4256.. Our strategy for 1st Aug. Sell at high (S.L 4379) Buy on dip (S.L 4256).. Resistance for up move 4357/4363/4379/4400/4457.. Supports 4300/4282/4256/4228/4128..
pivot level
Point to Watch: 4324
Support: 4324, 4318, 4227, 4254, 4176, 4168, 4101(05), 4089, 4049, 4031, 4017,4009, 3996
Resistance: 4340, 4395, 4400, 4460(68)
- tests 4340 & closes above PTW.
Nifty is in uptrend.
Target of 4500 achieved and above it target remains at 4700. We may go higher also.
****Nifty**** ~ July 31~
Nifty august future premium decreased to 4 points. Open interest decreased by 102 lacs today. (long unwinding ------bearish)
***Options**** July 31~
open interest put-call ratio decreased to 1.30.(bearish)
********Fund flow*** ~July 30~
~FII index fut + 1433 cr
*******total fund flow +1745 cr today & nifty was up by 124 points.
*******So far net fund flow of +4926 cr in July series.
******* Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series
Reliance and tisco
1. Tata Steel is presently in downtrend and stock has support at Rs 590-600. Stock has resistance at Rs 680-690.
2. Reliance Industries is presently in recovery mode and stock can see the target of Rs 2,280-3,240. It is no doubt that for a long term investor one can hold this stock and one can keep on holding the stock till level of Rs 2,075 is not breached on the lower side.
A narrow range day, like a doji, represents confusion or indecision. The markets are not sure what the next move would be. Both bulls, as well as the bears, do not have control on the markets. It is representative of being in a neutral territory. It is also representative of a ‘lull before the storm’. Now that we have seen the lull today, we should get ready for the storm. But in which direction will the storm come? Nobody knows for sure. But the price action tomorrow shall tell us. A move above today’s high should be bullish (4342) while a move below today’s low (4285) shall be bearish. As suggested in yesterday’s post, the chances of the markets going down are more than going up, because there is resistance close by and because of the pattern made in the charts.
Seen above is the daily chart of Nifty along with the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI itself is not indicating right now but the trendline and trend channel is. As can be seen the downward sloping trendline is providing resistance to the Nifty at 4460 and support is near the top of the trend channel i.e. between 4180 and 4200. You can also see a minor resistance, as is pointed out by the brown arrow, at 4332. Why at 4332? Because the close today and close on Monday was at 4332, the high of the day on Tuesday was at 4332 and the high of Wednesday was 4327. So, it can be seen that in four days, the Nifty has been unable to cross this level of 4332, which means it is acting as a fairly strong support, at least in the short term. I, as an investor, would be willing to buy only above the previous pivot high of 4540, or at best, above 4460 when the trendline is broken through. I, as a short term trader would buy (in small quantities) above 4350 but would exit at the first sign of weakness. As a short term trader, I would also be willing to go short below today’s low of 4285 and then to adopt a wait and watch strategy near 4200. If some support is being found there, I will exit and if not, then increase my short exposure below 4160.
Kalpruksh
| Determination is must... Thursday, July 31, 2008 After spectacular unexpected rally market created a perfect spot of catch 22 situation on the last day in the first half. The weakness was marked to weak oil, settlement day and public conviction of unsustainable rally. But over and above the main factor seems to be the rollover of short positions. It was clear that the rollover was below expectation as of yesterday. It was also thought that bulls have different idea this time to use the advantage came their way to have upper havala which could have been huge credit to them. However bulls made come back in the second half to close the market at 68 points plus yet the same was not convincing. May be the position of call and put writing could have compelled to halt the rally at this juncture. Tomorrow a fresh innings will start and fresh positions will be built. Market players will create positions on either side which will create some volatility. Bears will not get convinced about the sustained rally whereas bulls would go at their own speed before they put the vehicle in overdrive. I expect Nifty 4900 target in Aug end. Cash stocks are performing better than anticipated and their results are also better than expected. Yesterday we have seen Jayswal nos and today we have Sandur reporting operating profit of Rs 98 crs and net profit of 68 crs. Yet this is below market expectations and some selling can cool off the stock price. Tisco too set to announce Rs 1575 crs net where as market was expecting as high as 2200 crs. This is really weak set of nos considering the fact that contract price revision happens in Q1. I think it is worth reentering this stock if it comes close to 1000 to 1100 levels now. Nagpur where we had initiated buy call at Rs 30 has reported 13 crs net profit as against Rs 3 crs and stock is up at 51. Trigyn too reported Rs 3 crs net profit which is substantially better than expected. Xcl, Indian Hume Pipe reported superb results. MSP, RDB and Panyam too will report sterling performances. Bajaj Steel stole the limelight by announcing Rs 2.8 crs net for Q1 on a very small equity of Rs 2 crs. This is the time to catch young and beautiful one which will reduce your age by at least 2 decades. Time also warrants that younger one has to perform over the age old goats. We need to change and give the respect to younger ones. If real fruits of capital market have to be shared by the people of country and not just 1% layer of the market this change is must. Spend little money on research and invest who knows your stock could be a fortune maker for you like NMDC, Sesa Goa and SANDUR have changed the lives of investors. The difference between the impossible and the possible lies in determination. |
| DAILY TRADING CALLS |
| Overview |
| The Most Recommended Stock Is In Stock Of The Day Section. Buy If Breaks - Best To Trade When Stock Starts Trading Above From Recommended Price. Buying Expecting Once SENSEX Starts Trading Above 14369. Till Then Be Stock Specific Only. |
| Market Indicators |
| Stock | Current Status | Major Support | Major Resistance |
| BSE-SENSEX | DOWN | 13500, 11400, 9400 | 16400, 17800, 18700 |
| NSE-NIFTY | DOWN | 4150, 3520, 2900 | 4880, 5370, 5610 |
| Stock Of The Day (Best Buy) |
| Stock | Buy Around | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop Loss |
| BANK OF INDIA | IF BREAKS 276 | 281 | 283 | 273 |
| BHARTI TELE | IF BREAKS 810 | 822 | 830 | 802 |
| ESSAR OIL | IF BREAKS 191 | 197 | 199 | 188 |
| HIND LEVER | IF BREAKS 241 | 246 | 248 | 238 |
| ICICI BANK | IF BREAKS 648 | 660 | 670 | 642 |
| RELIANCE COMMUNICATION | IF BREAKS 508.50 | 517 | 522 | 504 |
| TCS | IF BREAKS 841 | 852 | 855 | 835 |
| Stock Of The Day (Best Sell) | ||||
| ACC LTD | IF BREAKS 573 | 560 | 550 | 580 |
| ORCHID CHEM | IF BREAKS 244 | 237.50 | 235 | 247 |
| High Risk Buys |
| Stock | Buy Around | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop Loss |
| . | . | . | . | . |
| High Risk Sells |
| Stock | Sell Around | Target 1 | Target 2 | Stop Loss |
| IVRCL INFRA | 306 | 290 | 285 | 313 |
| TRENDSignals |
| Important Support & Resistance Levels of Sensex/ Nifty / Nifty 'Near Month' | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Change in Indices in last 5 Days | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Gainers / Losers & Stocks with Spurt in Volume (Min Avg Volume >50000/Day) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Support/Resistance for Day Traders (01.08.2008) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| We are giving below the Important Support and Resistance Levels of few most actively traded scrips of NSE/BSE (including F&O). Many Traders successfully use Support/ Resistance levels for day- trading. Traders are advised to read the Disclaimer and Rules for Successful trading & apply Stop Loss on all trades. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Bar Reversal Up/ Down, Engulfing in Daily Chats (Min Avg Volume >100000/Day) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| What the Charts Foretell | |
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| Bulls & Bears (Technically Speaking) | |
| Siemens Ltd. - (Daily) | Tata Chemical (Daily) |
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Date 01/08/2008 Friday
DATE INDICATOR GREEN- BULLISH RED - BEARISH YELLOW- WAIT & WATCH
Alert :-- Please do not hold any long position and go home, any time bears will attack. So please be alert now.
We saw one mentality in this market that when DOW went to the bullish for one day then Indian investors think that now bullishness will be started in Indian market also but first understand the concept of bearish market that bullish market stood stand for 4 years same as bearish market also do work, so please do not any hope for sharp bull run in the market. Bearish market always make lower high & lower low, so investors who invest their money in this market those investors per day get to see below rates. So we are continuously giving this warning that please does not hold any long position.
Today if Nifty Future go to cross the level of 4343 then it can go up to the level of 4380, 4411 to 4431 but if Nifty Future go to break the level of 4307 then it can go below level of 4298, 4246 to 4123.
Daily Target:-
1) Sell ACC Below @ 582 Target 552-520 to 504.
2) Sell BAJAJAUTO Below @ 348 Target 325-301 to 288.
4) Sell BHARTIARTL Below @ 797 Target 758-719 to 699.
5) Sell BOMDEYING Below @ 613 Target 590-566 to 553.
6) Sell CORPBANK Below @ 257 Target 246-234 to 228.
7) Sell GAIL Below @ 375 Target 352-329 to 317.
8) Sell HCLTECH Below @ 200 Target 187-173 to 166.
9) Sell ICICIBANK Below @ 631 Target 590-545 to 522.
10) Sell IOB Below @ 83 Target 78-72 to 69.
11) Sell KOTAKBANK Below @ 528 Target 497-464 to 447.
12) Sell MECDOWELL-N Below @ 1279 Target 1251-1222 to 1208.
13) Sell NTPC Below @ 170 Target 162-154 to 150.
14) Sell RPL Below @ 164 Target 160-156 to 154.
15) Sell SUZLON Below @ 222 Target 211-199 to 193.
Note--- If market open green then buy our buying tips and If market open red then sell our sell tips.
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main Target level nifty--- 4033, 3484 & 2604 sensex-- 13538, 11727 & 9071.( date -21-03-2008)
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Steel production,consumption and prices.....
Steel production has only gone one way for most of this decade, with Chinese capacity growing by leaps & bounds:
China leads the way in consumption growth, of course:
As for prices, they have been in a strong uptrend since 2002, but you can also see the cyclicality since 1981:
For a longer term view of the steel industry, do check out the World Steel in Figures report, published by the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI).
Coming to India, I would think that steel prices will face most of the same head-winds in 2009 as cement - slower economic growth, slowing construction (both residential & commerical), oversupply, etc. One difference is the impact of imports - while cement has a short shelf life, steel does not. Thus, if the Chinese decide to dump excess steel all over the world and the Indian government doesn’t levy obscene import duties (want to reduce inflation - remember?), then domestic steel prices are bound to drop.
Now, Arcelor Mittal’s spectacular results would lead us to believe that the good times ain’t over for the steel industry, but note this:
. . . the company only shipped marginally more steel in this period compared to last year, 29.8 million metric tonnes versus 29.2 million metric tonnes in the second quarter of 2007. That means almost all of the company’s revenue increase was due to spiking steel prices.
As always, things appear the rosiest near the peak - my bet would be on a cyclical downturn in steel rather than a plateau at such high prices.
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