NEWSLETTER

NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex as has been suggested before about the possibility of rising wedge breakdown to be possible in either case which is to stop at 16200-16800 or 17700. So lets see how it pans out.

Check this post to get good idea : http://nooreshtech.blogspot.com/2009/08/dowcrude-on-highs-can-sensex-do-same.html

For the short term supports are placed at 15300-15500. Continue to be stock specific as i still expect the moves from here on will be very selective.

Stocks to watchout for :

Unitech, Binani,IFCI,OCL , Power trading , Meghmani breakout in short term.Keep trailing stops. GMDC achieves target.

Uttam Steel heading for life high territory. Difficult to put an upside target.

Please keep trailing stoplosses /stoplosses for trades taken as well as book half or more on profits move of 15-20%. As will not be able to review all the stocks discussed.

HAT TRICK LAST WEEK :

Aptech , GMDC, Dalmia Cement shooted up 20% in the day after buy call ..... Cheers ... Clients have enjoyed if u would like to then check www.analyseindia.com for our services.

Large Cap Stocks ;

Many large cap stocks are close to breakout levels but need to be taken off with volumes to give a quick 5-8% move.

Reliance Inds needs to sustain above 2080

BHEL above 2380

HDFC above 2550

Asian Oil Fields

All the stocks in the exploration have seen a very quick upmove. Speculative buying interest can take this stock higher by 15-20% in quick time. take your own call.

Jyoti Structure looks good for a short term on sustaining above 149.

Kilburn Engineering looks interesting with some investor interest seen. Take your own call.

K S oils seems to be catching up with the midcap view. Buy with a stop of 3% .

(S S Cheema)

So another month passes by and as we look back – all said and done it has been a fairly good swing so far. Now all that remains is the last day to go by peacefully and that would be another achievement. The achievement may not be too much on the Nifty closing up this month – but the fact that the Nifty fell and recovered all the losses to close above in green on the monthly basis. Well there is today to be seen still. The FII and DII data as given by the SEBI is pasted above. On the weekly basis we are doing better than other markets. That by itself should be some consolation and an achievement. Before I move on to discuss other things some points that one can keep in mind before we end this month are:-

• PCR is generating bullish signs.
• India VIX has declined 524 basis points in last five days to close at 33.27% last week.
• FIIs seem to have become net buyers in out markets in the last five days. Though on monthly basis they have been net sellers.
• Crude prices seems to be hovering around the unchanged mark ending the week –1.15% at 72.49 $ a barrel.
• Inflation seems to be recovering and may come in positive soon. at the moment for the week ending 15 Aug it was at -0.95%.

As far as the Global cues on the last closing are concerned the Asia was all green except Hang Sang that closed 0.71% in red. Nikkei was in green up 0.57% and Strait Times was green 0.02%. Europe started the day green and ended green. FTSE was up 0.81%, DAX up 0.86% and CAC up 1.22%. US was confused at its best – oscillating between red and green to end mixed. Dow down 0.38%, Nasdaq up 0.05% and S&P down 0.20%. So like I said – confused. Bloomberg says that as per the consumer confidence, hosing data and Tech company earnings the recession is ending. Nikkei has opened in green and is up almost 1.77%.

Now as far as the candles on Nifty are concerned it was a white candle but it did not touch the upper Bollinger Band. On 315 – the 3 EMA continues to be above the 15 EMA and is a good sign. Volumes recovered a bit being 107% of last 50 Day average. RSI is rocking at 62.31 and the SMA (15) for RSI stands at 53.71. ADX still trails at 14. Slow Stochastic - %k and %D lines are almost overlapping and are in the overbought zone so some caution on that account is necessary. TRIX is looking up. MACD is bullish.

The options data as of now supports longs only with the put call ratio in nifty 1.45. The open interest is – 36.73 lac Put 4500, 31.83 lac at put 4300, 30.38 lacs in call 4900, 29 lacs in 4000 put, 5000 call and 4600 put. As per this we should now have a good run till about 4900 levels unless the Options data changes due to some reason drastically. Please take a look at the graphs also.

To summarise – Global cues are good to neutral. All the indicators baring Slow Stochastic and ADX are rocking. Slow Stochastic is overbought – but like I have said many times before it has a capacity to remain overbought and oversold for fairly long periods of time. ADX – yes it is an important indicator and till the time I see the markets in an upmove with ADX crossing 20 from below – I will keep saying that ideal strategy is that of cautious longs. All those who went long should trail stoploss on closing basis – do not hold longs if market closes below 4652, for those who are still bearish do not hold shorts if the markets close above 4716. For the day go long and remain long above 4684 and short below that level. Hope that this week too rocks. Only know that historically Sep and Oct are not too good a months for markets.

SENSEX (15922.34)

Resistance : 15975 / 16025 / 16090 / 16130

Support : 15880 / 15725 / 15665 / 15540

NIFTY (4732.35)

Resistance : 4745 / 4760 / 4775 / 4790

Support : 4705 / 4655 / 4630 / 4595 / 4535

NIFTY FUTURE (4737.8)

Resistance : 4780 / 4825

Support : 4705 / 4680 / 4605

If On Monday

- NIFTY Closes With Good Gains Or Around 4770, Start Lightening Your Positions By 20-25% Within Thursday, Would Get An Oppurtunity To Buy Again At A Much Cheaper Price.

- NIFTY Closes In Red,Start Buying Good Stocks With Very Good Fundamentals Till Thursday, Will See Good Returns Soon.

Buy NIFTY Above 4750,Sl 4735,Tgt 4770/95/4835/75

Sell NIFTY Below 4720,Sl 4735,Tgt 4705/4670/10/4585

POSITIONAL

Heavy Risk Traders

Buy NIFTY Only Around 4710,Sl 4670,Tgt 4750/75/4800/25/50

BUY NIFTY 4700Ce & SELL NIFTY 5000Ce For High Returns In Short Term

ANULABS Around 11-12,Sl 9,Tgt 15/18/20+

COUNTRYCLUB Around 18/20,Sl 15,Tgt 23/25/28/30+

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 5.65% with increasing volumes indicating forming of long positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive with volatility.

BUY

WELSPUNGUJ Above 250,Sl 240,Tgt 275/85/95

ONGC Above 1190,Sl 1170,Tgt 1210/30/50

SBI, Sl 1755,Tgt 1795/1805

RELIANCE, Sl 2040,Tgt 2080/95

FUTURES

BHARTI (434.8) : Buy@ 430,Sl 420,Tgt 440/45 (Close Above 440,Positional Traders Go For BTST)

ONGC (1179) : Buy@ 1175,Sl 1165,Tgt 1190/95/1200/1205

BHEL (2330) : Sell@ 2360/65,Sl 2380,Tgt 2330/20/10/05

NCDEX (Positional) : Sell TURMERIC@ 7900/8100,Sl 8200,Tgt 7600/400/200/6900/700/500

The debate is on whether Nifty has conclusively broken out above 4700 or not. There are many ifs and buts - monsoon worries, valuation etc - but i guess one factor that has kept the market in check - has gone unnoticed i.e. technical setup of three key stocks.

There are 3 stocks in Nifty that constitute of Nifty (based on weightages); and are struggling around certain levels because of fundamental issues. These 3 stocks are - i. Reliance; ii. Bharti; and iii. ICICI Bank

It is because of this reason that i am calling these 3 stocks as make or break stock.

Reliance

The company is locked in a bitter dispute with ADAG group; and it is weighing on the stock. Every time the stock climbs to 2080-2100 - it is challenged with strong selling pressure. But if stock on Monday morning starts trading above 2100 - one can be highly convinced of the breakout.

Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]

Pressure point = 2080-2100.

Bharti

Bharti-MTN deal has been a big drag for stock price performance. Just have a look below how stock tanked from 500 to 380 on the news. Stock has been big underperformer in last 3 months.

But things are changing now and new pressure point = 435-440 has emerged. On Friday, it was one of the buzzing stock and closed just near the resistance point. It is a stock to watch for on Monday. If it starts conclusively trading above 440 - one can derive great comfort on Nifty breakout.

Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]

Pressure point = 435-440.

ICICI Bank

ICICI Bank has been a neither here nor there stock in last 3 months. It gapped up post election results but it did nothing after that. Everytime - the stock reaches 800 - it retraces but everytime - there is dip - stock pulls back also. So, the stock has been completely rangebound. Another issue - sectorally, banks are under pressure. ICICI Bank needs to breakout above 800 to lift sentiment; and create more +ve energy for breakout.

Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]

The big question -

• What if Reliance-ADAG group kiss and make up?
• What if Bharti-MTN deal is construed differently?
• What if ICICI Bank decides to list all its subsidiary?

Well, then its all blue sky and market can see sustainable upside. But forget fundamentals - purely as price watcher - these are the three stocks one should keep an eye on because just by pure mathematics - they can lift or dump the Nifty.

NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)






CLICK on the charts above to have a zoomed view and read the levels mentioned.

Stock review:

Aptech did 230 to 280 in 2 sessions. Alpha geo 200 to 250 in 2 sessions :) ... Hope people enjoyed. Micro Tech broken out stop 142.

Ganesh Housing hold for 140-150. Henkel broken out can book and shift now. Uflex 100 those who are not for long term book out. ITD cement ,Ion exchange , GPIL can book. Hikal hold for medium term.


Small cap picks for risky players with 3 weeks view: High risk high returns.

Usher Agro

Temptation Foods.

Gremach Infra


MY CHART

Nifty :: Body gap up bullish candle with increasing volume.. As we say in yesterday post momentum is still up, but be careful at higher level due to supply zone and that’s why avoid buy at high... Up to 4580 every dips gives you buying opportunity for short term ONLY.. In Nifty chart we plot two bearish pattern Ending Diagonal and second one is bearish Wolfe Wave.. Most probably we see frailer Inverted H&S pattern even if Nifty given breakout of neckline (4704).. For 27th Aug watch strong support zone 4618 to 4580.. Our strategy for 27th Aug buy in deep (S.L 4580) Sell at high (S.L 4750).. Resistance for up move at 4704/4718/4731/4750.. Supports at 4660/4618/4610/4580..
(US Market update :: S&P 500 large cap index moving up as corrective B leg with ZigZag major a-b-c in intraday chart , major a leg complete with a-b-c and last leg c of major a wave complete with 1-2-3-4-5 leg .. Similarly major c of last leg c running with 1-2-3-4-5 and c of 4th leg may be complete today and now last reaming 5th leg moving up tomorrow)

(S S Cheema)

So finally the month will end and this uncertainty will die with it – where do we go now? There are two equally convincing proposals that are being projected as what will be – for the next month. One say that the markets will breakout on the upside and go on to test atleast 4850 level at the very least and the second say that the markets will correct sharply and we will see levels much lower than we have imagined. As I see it the bullish version is the one that is buying more credibility with more and more people convinced that the markets are getting into the safe zone. How safe? – only time will tell. The factors favouring the upswing are – rising wedge, closing above the Psychological barrier of 4650, inverse head and shoulders, majority of the indicators that I follow. And that in favour of the bears are – no meaningful correction for a long time, China factor, ADX and Triple Swing(explanation is there on Jaggu’s Blog). Now you can have your pick.

The global cues are mixed to say the least – In Asia Nikkei closed 1.36%up, Hang Seng up 0.1% and Strait Times up 0.37%. Europe was not so lucky and it opened red – made a couple of sincere efforts to go green – failed and ended red.FTSE down 0.53%, Dax down 0.63% and CAC 0.33%. US started the session red but soon went green only to oscillate the entire time between green and red finally closing green – just above the flat line. Dow was up 0.04% up, Nasdaq up 0.01% and S&P up 0.01%.

As far as the candles are concerned – I have an observation – firstly the candles are not trailing the upper edge as I had expected – the most plausible reason is the cal writers do not want the expiry above the 4700 levels. So like I said earlier – the move will happen starting tomorrow onwards. The 315 generated a buy three days back and that has been good so far.All lower EMAs are above the higher EMAs so bullish run continues. Volumes have picked up but that could be due to the rollovers/expiry. ADX is just in no mood to move a bit whatsoever – I have infact tapped my screen as to whether the ADX has not got struck there only – The reading is 14 so this upmove has less meaning to it and there is no trend in place. MACD is bullish. RSI is bullish and Slow Stochastic inspite of being in bullish mode – are overbought. TRIX has also started looking up.

As far as the options data is concerned the 4700 call for this month has the maximum open interest. What should be important to us now is the Sep open interest – but I should tell to that to read the data – of next month is not all that beneficial so early in the next expiry. All the same the build up of open interest for next month is (from high to low) Almost 25 lacs plus In 4500 Put> 4000 Put > 4300 Put. As far as the calls are concerned 21 lacs in 5000 call and 20.5 lakh in 4900 call. Put call ratio is terribly in favour of the bull with the ratio 1.48. So much negativity – I am bullish for the time being whatever be the outcome. Also see the option pain chart – we are ending the month at the point of minimum option pain.

Okay ideal strategy on all counts (baring ADX and overbought Stochastic) is bullish. If I read it correctly 4700 may be taken after expiry. So ideally you should have already been long with stoploss of close below 4593 and if still short for whatever reason keep stoploss of 4676 on closing basis. For the day safe to be long above 4627 and short below it. Just a word – Asia has opened weak…

Best of luck to everyone – have a ball making money today…

NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Rising Wedge :

The above chart is pure wishful thinking or trying to predict a possibility. Though i believe the best way to trade now is react then to predict till then stay with the trend which still remains up.

As per the above observation Sensex might be forming a fractal pattern similar to what happened in Sept-Jan 07-08. This may interest all the people who are waiting for a correction. Although if index has to follow this path then there might be a few legs still left. Sensex may break the upper trendline giving a false move.

False move - Yes its been an observation that many major trends are set only after a false breakout ! -- We did see it in Jan 08 where index corrected heavily. Similarly we saw a slightly different pattern in March 09 where we saw a super upmove after a false breakdown.

This observation is premature and naive but we will continue to ponder on it in coming weeks/months.

Sensex Technical View :

In last few sessions had shown the support of 14500-14700 zone to be important as shown by the blue supporting line and bang on Sensex reversed from the same zone by just going a little below 14700. CLICK TO SEE CHART

So for now the blue line shown in chart would be our reference point for any intermediate trend change.

On the upside index now needs to break 15550 levels in quick time to show strength of the upmove. Sustaining above the same would create a good possibility that the Sensex may surpass 16k by a better margin though with negative divergences.

For the short term 15550 is an important level to watch.

Stocks to watchout for :

ION exchange does 125 tgt. Easun good for medium term. GHCL breakout keep stop of 39.8. Hikal, Bombay Burmah, ITD cementation good for investors. ORG informatics for penny pickers.

VBC ferro discussed before at 350 is notching ckts book part and hold rest for 450.

Wockhardt on sustaining 165-167 can tgt 180 levels in short term. Risky trade.Emco transformers if stays above 90-92 zone can touch 105-115 in short term- investors can hold on.

IFCI looks good if able to cross 54 can give a quick move to 60 +.

GMDC

Watch for sustained closing above 95. If stays above for a few sessions the stock can tgt 104/118 in short term. stop of 90

Jkumar Infra

liquidity in the stock is low but seems a good breakout. Buy on declines to 122-125 stop of 118 tgt 140. Do your own research.

Day picks:

Buy Bharti Airtel above 416 stop of 408 tgt 425-430

Welspun Gujrat buy above 220 stop of 216 tgt 228-232

Polaris buy above 139 stop of 135 tgt 148.

Small cap ckt hitters --- For lion hearted risky traders

ORG informatics.

Jayswal neco

Four Software.

(S S Cheema)

You want me to place my bets in this upmove? See the FII/DII data – the purchasing by the FIIs does not at the moment show too much of enthusiasm. The markets are perhaps being forced to be kept range bound – and that may remains so till the expiry. On Friday the markets moved up with a sudden drop in open interest in 4500 Calls. Now the range may be dictated by a different level in Nifty but all the same the range is likely to remain till such manipulations disappear. The second factor working in favour of the markets at the moment (negate the China factor) is the fact the globally there is a talk of being high and dry out of recession. The results coming out an the various forecasts may be pointing towards that. Finally all the world markets are waiting for me to become bullish – it is only then the bears will get a signal to strike. It will be when you me and the tom around the corner is convinced that we are out of the woods and when we reach the other bank – we will stare with complete disbelief and the markets will fall. That they are not falling means that everyone is still not board the bull bus.

As far as the Global cues are concerned – Asia had ended down in red on Friday inspite of an effort to recover from the lows of the day. Nikkei was down 1.4% down, Hang Seng down 0.64% and Strait Times down 0.58%. Ofcourse – Asia should open and try to recover some lost ground when it opens on Monday. Europe opened red and then steadily climbed to end at almost the highest – FTSE up 1.98%, DAX up 2.86% and CAC up 3.15%. The US too – after opening on a positive note went on to climb and end at almost the highest – Dow was up 1.67%, Nasdaq up 1.59% and S&P up 1.86%. As expected the Asia has opened with a bang – as I write Nikkei is up 3% and Strait Times up 1.44%.

As far as the charts are concerned – they display the typical confusion associated with range bound markets unable to breakout in any direction clearly. We have had two white candles and we have moved from the bottom of the fairly constricted Bollinger Band to the middle. Now either we come down – to once again test the bottom of the Bollinger band or move on to pierce the middle to go on to the upper edge. The 3 EMA line is just about 7 points below the 15 EMA line and if we have a good day then a buy signal may be generated today on 315. If we have a break up then those pacing their bets on inverted head and shoulders may be the ones cheering. Volumes are low – just 78% of the last 50 day average. Even in this upmove the ADX has not even budged an inch. RSI and Slow Stochastic have generated a buy signal and MACD is still in favour of the bears. TRIX is still looking down. So all in all you can take any stance but like bears earlier – I would be vary of the bulls too. (The ADX as shown in the iCharts is incorrect)

The Put call ratio has moved in favour of the puts. The highest Open interest in the order of high to low is 4300 Put, 4400 Put, 4600 Call, 4700 Call, 4500 Put and 4200 Put. If you observe carefully you will realise that 4500 Call has conveniently disappeared from the scene. So next level to watch out is 4600 and if we do go there then we should ideally have a Put build up at 4500 that would define the range of 4500 to 4600 till expiry.

So all in all to summarise – Global cues are rocking for bulls. Indicators on the charts started favouring bulls – Option data defined a new range – above the earlier range as the favoured range for expiry. So all in all we can test the upper Bollinger Bands. Best of luck to everyone for the today.

(*M J Akhtar*)

1. Nifty made a swing high of 4619 on 14 Aug 2009. Swing low was 4353.45 on 19 Aug 2009.



2. Range => 265.55;



3. 61.80% of 266.55 => 164;



4. Low + 164 => 4353.45 + 164 = 4517.55;



5. Nifty closed at 4528.80; Meaning Nifty is/was Bullish...;



6. Now Nifty would try to take the previous high of 4619;



7. 14 day ATR is 120. Do not expect a big range on Monday;



8. So 4528.80 + 120 = 4648.80. The high of the day is likely to be lower than 4653, in all cases;



9. Nifty would be Over Bought at 4602.35, with resistances at 4616.25, 4636.10, and 4653.70;



10. The region between 4591 and 4568 would act as a support. 4636 and 4653 would be very stiff resistances;

(NIFTY)

From the weekly chart, we can see that NIFTY is going range bound, for the last 14 weeks between 62% and 38% retracement level. Unless, NIFTY breaks out above 62% level or breaks down below 38% level, we cannot be sure of the next trend. We need to still wait for such an event to happen. Till then the major trend is to be considered neutral.

But the indicators are showing negative divergence, which is a matter of concern.

WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION

Observation:-

1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 19.71%, NIFTY AUG FUT closed flat last week.

2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 15 Stock FUTS closed positive, 26 Stock FUTs closed negative and 09 Stock FUTs close flat last week.

3) OI of current series NIFTY 4400 CE is up 35.35% prices down 26.49 %, NIFTY 4500 CE is up 52.83% prices down 43.11% last week showing buying. OI of NIFTY 4600 CE is up 34.15% prices down 61.66% showing call writing. OI of NIFTY 4600 CE is 42.85 LK highest OI in CALLs.

4) OI of current series NIFTY 4200 PE is up 32.04% prices down 66.98%, NIFTY 4300 PE is up by 31.41% prices down 61.51% and NIFTY 4400 PE is up by 30.75% prices down 48.18% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 4300 PE is 49.79 LK highest OI in PUTs.

5) Total OI of AUG series CALLS is up by 10.82 LK to 2.49 CR, AUG series PUTs is up by 26.25 LK to 2.81 CR. NIFTY AUG series PCR (OI) at 1.13.

NIFTY(4528.8)

Resistance : 4550 / 4605 / 4670 / 4725 / 4770 / 4815

Support : 4495 / 4455 / 4405 / 4365 / 4320 / 4275

SENSEX (15240.83) : Has Short Term Support@ 14700/800 Zone

Resistance : 15325 / 15445 / 15680 / 15885/16085

Support : 15130 / 15010 / 14855 / 14735 / 14585

NIFTY Has Sentimentally Huge Support Near 4320/4280 Zone & Big Resistance Around 4770/4810 Zone.

Sustains Below 4320/4280 For 4 Days, Heading Towards 4200/4100/3950/3850/3650

Sustains Above 4770/4810 For 4 Days, Heading Towards 4890/4990/5140/5240/5440

SECTOR WATCH : CAPITAL GOODS (BULLISH)

Total OI of ABB FUT up 22.68% prices up 4.40%, BHEL FUT up 39.38% prices up 4.59%, LT FUT up 21.78% prices flat and SIEMENS FUT down 12.71% prices up 2.22% last week.

Most of CAPITAL GOODS showing long positions build up. SIEMENS FUT showing short covering.

We expect positive move in coming week.

STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK : HDFC FUT (BULLISH)

Total OI of HDFC FUT up 57.24% prices up 5.03% last week. HDFC (AUG) FUT Intraday high 2454.00, Intraday low 2205.05 last week.

We expect up move in coming week.

Conclusion :-

Last week trade showing shorts build up but NIFTY SPOT failed to move down. I Expect First To Move Up Due To Short Covering.

NIFTY SPOT Resistance@ 4595-4605 levels, Strong Resistance@ 4660-70 levels. Profit booking expected near 4660-70 levels.

On down side, NIFTY SPOT Support@ 4490-4500, Strong Support@ 4440-50 levels.

COPPER : Range 300/312 (Bullish)

Strong Support : 295/290

Trades Above 312, May Test 315/18/21/24

CRUDE : Range 3510/3625

Strong Support : 3440/3420

Trade Above 3625, May Test 3655/3675/3705

Trade Below 3510, May Test 3480/60

SILVER : Range 22850-23350

Above 23340, May Test 23500/23600/23700/23800

Below 22850, May Test 22685/22585/22500

GOLD : Range 14900-15100

Above 15100, 15150/15200/15250 Is Possible

Below 14900, 14850/800 Is Possible

Rel Infra Chart - 30 min:

Rel Infra broken the high of 1112 which is formed on 20th Aug - Thursday and triggered longs. But it didn't sustain above this level by end of the day same like Reliance. Also there is a possibility of Nifty forming Bearish ABCD pattern, need to be a bit cautious with this.

Reliance Chart - 30 min:

Reliance broken the high of 1928 which is formed on 20th Aug - Thursday and triggered longs. But it didn't sustain above this level by end of the day. Also there is a possibility of Nifty forming Bearish ABCD pattern, need to be a bit cautious with this.

NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Although the index bounced back from the lows of yesterday but this has led to a much tighter range in the last 2-3 sessions which is 14700-15150 approximately or around 4350-4520 on Nifty.

On the upside resistances are placed at 15550.

Continue to be stock specific as the major action has shifted

Stocks to watchout for :

yuken has moved from 76-78 to 88 book part. Tata Elexsi needs to sustain above 176 for further move.IFCI wait for 54 cross.Omnitech and Helios gave a spurt.Godawari BGR wait for crossover. Take soln stop 37.

Aditya Birla Nuvo looks good for short term tgt of 1035-1050.Buy on declines to 950 stop 930.

LIC housing continues to stay strong with sideways consolidation. Buy if stays above 645 tgt 680/730 in short term. Stock has moved a lot so keep a stop of 3 % .

Investors can have a look on Easun Reyrolle for medium term with a stop of 68. Do ur research.

MAN inds could give a breakout if closes above 54.

High risk trade for short term -- Buy GHCL above 42 stop of 39.5 tgt 47.

IOn exchange a smart 7% move today. Maintain bullish view for tgt of 125.Even Hikal , Bombay burmah and ITD cementation good too for investors.

ORG informatics could be another ckt hitter like earlier speculative picks like Om Metals,Camson ..........Only for penny lovers.

*M J Akhtar*)

1. 5 ema is at 4453;
2. Overbought level is 4576, & Oversold is 4330;
3. Nifty still stuck in a range;
4. 14 day RSI is at 49, ATR is 123;
5. 20 SMA is 4541, 20 EMA is 4482.
6. Nifty would try to touch the Overbought levels, although it's just not seeing any real buying.
   

Bramesh

Extremely Short term pick Took a very good support at 203-205 levels

Buy only above 212 for a tgt of 217 219 sl 204

Grasim Chart - Hourly:

Grasim formed a bullish ABCD pattern. Long trade is already triggered, one can go long on dips tomorrow.

Ranbaxy Intraday Chart - 5 mins:

Update on Bullish Gartley in Ranbaxy, it opened at 305.2 and started falling down, so no trade is triggered on Ranbaxy. If tomorrow we take trade above 305.2 + filter then risk/reward would be too high. Hence only high risk trades can take the trade. Above is the updated chart.

BUY : WELGUJ CMP 212 (DONT MISS )

Nifty (Spot) :- Closing - 4453.45. Sell nifty below 4425 with sl 4455 for tgt 4390-4375-4360.Below 4350 heavy panic selling will see. Buy nifty above 4495 with sl 4455 for tgt 4530-4550-4570.

buy nifty- above 3597 sl- 3569 tar- 3616/3654 sell nifty - below 3520 sl- 3547 tar- 3470/3434. nifty range for d week - 3520-3750 ( break n tarde any side will deciede future trend)

ss)

KPIT Infosys made a 52 week high yesterday. Both these charts are daily. The IT sector is showing a good relative strength and parking some of your funds in this sector can be a good idea.



For the past three days, the Nifty has compressed its action between a range - 4500 to 4380. This is good news, because such a narrow range is not likely to be sustained. Therefore, a breakout / breakdown is imminent. What will be the direction? Why not let the market tell us this.
wildeazoscar writes in comments - "And what is the big move target if 4730 is broken on upside? At least an amount equivalent of the trading range? That should guarantee 5660 at least!!"
Here is a valid point, and the I have thought about it, without reaching a conclusion. The Nifty is in a large trading zone between 3930 - 4730 approximately. A breakout should see an 800 point move (width of the trading range) which gives 5530. On the downside we have a target of 3130. For most of us, 3130 is easier to accept since we did see these levels just six months ago, but 5530?
Well, among numerous posibilities - (1) The upside target is reached in many months, with lot of volatility, (2) The target is not touched at all, (3) The Nifty creates the mother of all bubbles, taking itself to 7200 (target for the inverted head and shoulderwhich gets confirmed around 4760).
For 3930 to breakdown, we will enter a bear market. Why not? If the two reliance siblings keep on fighting, the Govt could one day announce gas a a national resource (put the gas under govt control) and that will bring the market down to 3100.

So, take one step at a time. Currently, we are looking at a narrow range. That breakout / breakdown will give a trending move.

NEWSLETTER

NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :
The move today has simplified short term traders decision making process. Holding 14700 clearly indicates that one should keep index positions with that stoploss. We had similar tops around 15550 makes it clear that further momentum could be seen above that level.

So what do we do-- Nuthin on index focus on STOCKS - Broader market will be very exciting.

Stocks to watchout for :
IOC steadily going up ( Client reco at 565 )
ONGC hold for short term. GSPL rocking.

IFCI
Chart posted below plz check
If stays above 54 expect a tgt of 57.5/60/65 in extreme short term.
Disclosure ( Recommended to clients at 49.3 )

Rolta
After giving a false move yesterday because of index crack the stock has pulled back above 165. Sustained trading above 168 should take the stock to 180-190.

Uflex inds has given a small breakout and maybe headed to 90/98. Hold

Hikal Limited , ION Exchange,Bombay burmah ( tea story ) and ITD cementation look good for medium term investors. Liquidity a concern though.

YUKEN india has given a breakout buy on declines to 75 tgt 90/100. Do ur own research
Tata Elexsi should catch momentum as all midcap IT stocks have. Above 176 expect a quick move to 190+.

(Dr.Krishna)

Germany is now the “talk of the town in investment community.” Germany surprised everyone in the last 3 days by releasing crucial data with unexpected positive news. Many Indian companies made huge investments in Germany in recent days. Germany was down and out after World War 2 but strongly bounced back after that. Will it bounce back once again?




Important note: I am publishing this post to give some idea on Germany economy and the fate of Indian companies which have operations in Germany.




Why Germany is crucial? Germany is responsible for 3.4% of world trade.




Niche sectors in Germany: Wind Energy, Solar Energy, Printed Electronics and Waste Management.




Popular sector in Germany: Auto.




Indian companies in Germany: IT, Pharma and Auto.







Positive data from Germany:




1. German investor confidence jumped to its highest level in more than three years. This is highest level since April, 2006.




2. Germany recorded a positive growth of 0.3% in this quarter and is officially out of recession. Analysts predicted 0.3% contraction in this quarter.




3. Germany's largest lender, Deutsche Bank reported 70% increase in net profit in this quarter.




4. Germany has no housing bubble but economy suffered due to its excessive dependence on exports. So, its fate more related to global economy.






Negative data from Germany:




1. Unemployment is at highest levels since 2007. US is also facing same problem.




2. Germany is an export oriented country. So, stronger Euro is a big problem.




3. Positive GDP growth is quarter-on-quarter basis but economy shrank by 5.5% if you think year-on-year basis.




4. More than expected fall in retail sales. Same problem in US also




5. German automaker Daimler announced 1 billion euro losses.




6. Germany is in deflation – first time since 1987.




7. According to analysts, this GDP growth is due to massive stimulus package and subsides along with money.




8. According to experts, German companies may face credit problems in the coming days.


MY CHART

Nifty :: As we say in yesterday post Nifty exactly hold strong support zone and made almost double bottom near 4372.. Now for short term 4372 works as strong support .. Still our weekly Ending Diagonal pattern valid.. For 19th Aug watch strong resistance 4524 and above it next two strong resistance 4570/4576.. Above 4576 Nifty easily break pivotal high 4620 in coming days and reach once again near Inverted H&S neckline 4700/4736 .. Our strategy for 19th Aug buy in deep (S.L 4367) Sell at high (S.L 4576).. Resistance for up move at 4500/4524/4570/ 4576/4620.. Supports at 4400/4372/4328..

Bramesh

Hi All,

Reliance took trend line support at 1924 and had a very dull session today,But volumes were OK so this indicates an distribution pattern.now if market needs to go up RIL will always play a crucial role.Looking at the charts once can take long above 1958 gor a target of 1975 1994. 2000-2010 will be a good resistance zone above that 2030 2061 and 2100 are my targets in coming Expiry,





*M J Akhtar*)

1. There is a bullish hidden divergence in all momentum oscillators.
   
2. The 5 ema is at 4482.
   
3. The Nifty would be oversold below 4357 and overbought above 4607, as on today.
   
4. We can look forward to the overbought state in coming sessions. Don't remain short above 4525
   
5. Very aggressive traders looking for overnight gains might want to short tomorrow when 5 minute RSI > 80, for 50 - 70 points, gain on Friday.(This advice is only for professional traders)
6. Nifty continues to be rangebound.

ss)

Thanks to my critic and my friend Ka for alerting me on a squeeze L&T. Both these charts are daily and the chart below show the details. Again, the bandwidth is at a 6 month low. Expect some action here.

(TRADE TIGER)

The current state of market reminds me of a movie scene where a bus is hanging precariously over the edge of a mountain road but somehow refuses to slip.

That’s what Nifty has been doing over last few days. Everytime, it goes near 4360 - it creates a scare and then does a amazing turnaround. But having said that - the fact of the matter is that market is in precarious state; and it needs to race past above 4620 to take the market out of mess. Till that happens - this kind of गयी गयी बची बची game will be on.

This is a good market for intra-day traders but certainly scary one for positional traders.

Nifty intra-day Chart

It was a good day for intra-day bulls. Nifty did all the right things - first it took support at yesterday’s low of 4375 during initial 30 min of the trade and then managed a sustainable bounce. Nifty moved from 4375 to 4485 in 2.5 hours with no volatility. The pace of move was surprising.

I do not know how should we desribe the action - short covering. Some of the momentum above 4440-4450 may also have come from intra-day bears who would have first shorted and later covered adding more momentum on intra-day basis.

Nifty 5-day Chart

The 5 day chart reflects state of indecisiveness. Nifty is all over the place. There are no great local triggers; and in absence of strong news flow - Nifty is getting kicked from one end to another based on global cues…and I see no reason why this may not continue for some more time.

Looking Ahead

The lows of August 12 i.e. 4360 become very significant now. Based on today’s action - one cannot make any conclusive statements. It’s 50-50. The market has attained state of equilibrium where fundamental analysts are comfortable with valuations and technical analysts are also getting resigned to the fact - we are trapped in a range. Some external force needs to be applied for Nifty to make large ranging moves. Till that happens - we need to wait

NEWSLETTER

Nifty mirrored the global weakness and opened deep in the red. It remained under selling pressure for the entire session and
finally closed near day's low at 4387, losing 192 points in value. The market breadth was extremely bearish at almost 2:11. All
the sectoral indices gave a negative close. The BSE Metal and Realty indices lost the most.
Weak global cues took its toll on the Indian markets as well and Nifty opened weak in the morning. Selling pressure intensified
as the session progressed and it finally ended the day at 4387 losing a staggering 192 points in a single day. We had earlier
indicated the level of 4610 to be as a crucial level for Nifty in the immediate term and had mentioned that the recent peak of 4731
may be a prominent top for weeks to come if Nifty is unable to sustain above 4610. It failed to sustain above 4614 and has now
retraced almost all its gains that came in late last week. Nifty is now placed near an important support level of 4359 which also
almost coincides with the 50 Day EMA placed at 4362. However on the daily chart Nifty has formed “Head & Shoulder
pattern” which is a bearish sign. Additionally the “MACD” indicator has already given a sell on the daily chart. The Nifty
Futures chart has formed an “Island Reversal” pattern on the daily chart. All of which indicates further weakness for day's to
come. It may thus retrace at least 61.80% of the recent run up from 3918 to 4731 and test 4229 below that it may even drift down
to 4165 which is a “Trend Line” support – Trend Line connecting the low of 4159 to 3918. This support range may turn out to
be crucial for next few days as a failure to hold above the support range of 4160 to 4230 may indicate tremendous weakness and
a deeper correction even below the major swing low of 3918. In that case it may dip to the next support range of 3550 – 3600.
Alternatively if Nifty takes support near the range of 4160 to 4230 then we may see a bounce. However for the immediate term it
appears weak and the weakness may extend further on a breach of the support range. We have already mentioned about the 19
Months Time Cycle which points to the current month of August' 09 as an important month; as a prominent peak/bottom can be
formed in the month. We give high credence to the mentioned time cycle especially because it has worked beautifully well in the
past several instances in anticipating a Top/Bottom. The time cycle study coupled with the “Negative Divergence” registered
by the “MACD” indicator as well as “RSI” oscillator on the weekly chart (a combination earlier witnessed only at the peak
level of Nifty – 6357); leads us to believe that a prominent top may be in place in the current month of August '09. We would also
like to revisit the 49 Day Time Cycle; we have been using earlier which indicates today's session as an important date for a
reversal in prices. The level of 4619 may now serve as a stiff resistance for Nifty in the immediate term. Support levels for
tomorrow's session are placed at 4359, below which it may further correct to 4229. Resistance levels for intra day trade are
placed at 4432 and higher up at 4468, beyond that the range of 4500 to 4525 may prove as a very severe resistance for Nifty.
Moving Avg Sensex Nifty
13 Day EMA 15227 4514
50 Day EMA 14653 4362
200 Day EMA 12960 3899

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :
A big drop out of the blue ... This is what makes market so difficult place to be !..
Technically the recent most trendline comes very close to 14700 area which is also the bottom seen last week.Also the orange line from the lows before election is another strong support.

Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% comes to around 14250-14300. So index is back to the support zones although the steepness of todays trade makes it a lil uneasy but till this market doesnt give a weekly close below 14200 the uptrend remains in place though caution be used always.

Rising Wedge :
On the pattern front it does seem like a rising wedge may be formed in weeks to come. This seems to be similar to the one in oct-Jan last to last year. Although such a pattern takes a long time to develop with 3 bottoms and tops on either side before an eventual move finding the direction. Will see charts of oct-jan , crude and other indices on this pattern in the weekend.

Or else the index can get into a huge consolidation between 13k-16k. So we still have to wait for next few months before the next major move unfolds. Till then continue to trade the range with broader market.

As always i would strictly mention to avoid leverage as volatility may increase. Keep reduced volumes to conserve profits made in previous good periods. Focus on the broader market as thats where the action could shift.

Stocks to watchout for :

IOC and ONGC still good for short term till they stay above 560 and 1140.
IFCI could not cross 54.GSPL still on radar.

(NOORESH)

Click to enlarge the chart so can read the target levels easily.
IOC :
Sustained move above 575-580 can give a good short term trade.

IFCI :

Momentum traders favorite stock. Sustained move above 54 may lead to a quick move to 60 + in short term. May take a small dip before the sharp move starts.

GSPL :

A strong breakout is possible in the medium term. For the short term the stock can test 80-85 levels.

Disclosure : Already recommended to clients at 70.5 yesterday.

Some other stocks :

ION exchange

the stock was discussed earlier also as a good funda pick seems now the stock may see smart volumes come in. Close above 115 for 2 sessions may lead to a move beyond 130 in short term.

KLG systels has given a small breakout and can slowly move higher but 5% circuit limit :(

Guj Flouro and Hikal limited look interesting but not heavily traded stocks.Investors can have a look.

RUMOURs and Badhi Baatein ! TAKE UR OWN CALL ... NEW SECTION ( do ur research or speculate with the risk involved) ... Just some market buzz. No onus on me if things dont go as rumours say.

NDTV stake sale to happen at 220 + .. Something cooking in here.

BPCL , HPCL may run before Oil India IPO.

Spicejet,Jetairways and Deccan can see renewed buying interest in next few weeks.

FMCG premium given to many stocks and super moves. Will pharma stocks see similar re-rating in months to come.

Small private banks like to move up on being possible takeover targets or catch up with large moves by the big ones.

NOORESH)

Although i dont like to comment on not so good stocks or on the manipulations in the market place but this is an exception. Some weeks back just happened to receive a call from a friend who just started investing and a major novice asking me what to do about Anu Labs which he bought around split or bonus time thinking he will make a killing :) ..

All i had to say is best of luck as i still dont understand how companies which are just a few years on the listed space decide to reward shareholders with bonuses and more. Whereas old companies take years and even decades to come out with a bonus.

On a curious note just happened to check the announcements and price movements which clearly show how a lay investor got stuck coz of buying on news and market-makers dumped the stock on news. Volumes and delivery volumes would make the picture more clear but m not interested to delve much more into it.

The above chart is bonus/split adjusted so it becomes easier to understand how the price kept falling after the news and maybe in cases the bonus share wont have been credited into the account leaving no option to the investor.

All in all.... Do good research and a good news or a spam e-mail is not the way to make a killing. I think some other chap also asked me about Vishal Info some days back in a similar manner :P

Sensex Technical View :
Nothing much has changed in the sensex view. 16050 on upside and 14500-14800 on downside remains the range for now. Till we dont see a move beyond it it would be better to look into stock specific moves.

Large midcaps/Midcaps/Small caps:
In the last couple of weeks or even before that the view has been to shift focus to the broad market then to look at the index as i expect the real action is there. Have been advising lot of such trades to clients and will still be doing that with small trades in large caps.
Earnings surprise, elections and many events led to a re-rating of index stocks as well as fy10-fy11 projections revised on higher side but what is missing is that the performance on the broader segment has been more surprising and interesting so similar re-rating could be possible in there which could give lot of opportunities in next few months as money would try to flow on the larger broader market.
So for next few weeks would stick to this segment !! ...

OIL and Gas :
Volumes and price build up being seen in many stocks from these sector and related stocks. Refinery companies like IOC, HPCL , BPCL and others like ONGC , GAIL , GSPL , Petronet Lng and even EKC,PSL , Nitin fire are seeing investor interest. Expect more moves in this space if we see follow up buying.

Stocks to watchout for :
Large caps or liquid names first and then a diff posts with mid cap charts ( many already sent to clients which may not be discussed here )

CAIRN
The stock can give a good 10-15% move if stays above 252 levels in the short term.
IOC
Sustained move above 575-580 could see a tgt of 600/640 in near term. These stocks may help the index moves.
ONGC
A nice breakout in happening. Sustained volume supported move above 1230-1250 can even take the stock to previous highs of 1350-1400 in short term. Can lead the index if follow up buying seen.Can be bought on declines to 1200-1150.


MY CHART

Nifty :: Finally Nifty break Ending Diagonal 2-4 line at 4420.. May be this c leg (from top 4731 to 4359 a, from 4359 to 4619 b) correct as usual up to 4246.. And up to 4150 still Innervated Head and Shoulder structure intact.. Before 4246 watch strong support zone 4362 to 4323.. After a hard hitting, may be Nifty take some rest and we see some side way momentum near this support zone.. Be careful to give long commitment immediate, all word market correct sharply and may be made top with C wave so wait for conformation then buy for mid term. Till then stay in sideline.. For 18^th Aug our strategy watch strong support zone 4323 to 4362 if Nifty open gap down and hold this support buy in deep (S.L 4323) sell at high.. Once Nifty break 4323 next strong support only at 4246/4228.. Resistance for up move at 4400/4458/4498/4538/4585.. Supports at 4362/ 4350/4334/4323/4246/4228..

(S S Cheema)

We seem to have come made a violent attempt to make a breakout. This has been on the lower side that has been expected by me and my bear fraternity for a long time. So many reasons that the markets were just sweeping below the carpet – and well I think the time has come for the markets to see what the lower side of the life seems like. There has been a Chinese angle to this meltdown and I think that this was about the time that it happened. In any case if this was to happen then either this or that would have been reason enough. No justifications either side. The markets opened gap down and then the sell off just gathered strength without a respite. Look at the FII data – like I had mentioned yesterday that the FIIs do not seem in any mood to buy into our markets any longer. Now there is another thing that we are perhaps are not considering – and that is that though the DIIs are merrily pumping in money at each level – where do they have their stop losses? (If any – I am certain that since they are playing with my and your money – the stop losses are far away) And that they will start selling at much lower levels. I pray for my mutual funds. For all those who think that the market has already dropped so much and would not like to jump on the shorts – then think again – the fall has just started and it is of global scale – if what I see purely on the charts alone then there is along way to go and that way is just pointing downwards. The markets should give a confirmation that he trend is down and down only. Okay – now I will try not to get carried away and come to the Brass tracks…

The Global cues are bearish and actually saying bearish without throwing a bucket of red paint on top of it would perhaps convey the situation a bit better. After burning every index and stock in Asia the fire went on to Europe with FTSE down 1.48%, Dax down 2.02% and CAC down 2.16%. US opened well in red and then traded in fairly narrow band to close at the lowest for the day. Dow was down 2%, Nasdaq down 2.75% and S&P down 2.43%. The Asia once again started the day in red but Nikkei is now green up 0.2% – the strait Times – now in early trades is just 0.16% down. The meltdown yesterday was supposedly due to profit taking in the wake of slower-than-expected economic growth in Japan. It has been described as one of the worst single day percentage loss in last six odd weeks.

Next I come to the Candle sticks. Frankly what I had expected yesterday was a piercing candle – that would go more than two third down the white candle we had on last Friday and that would ideally had been enough to signal a good reversal – but the markets just did not stop there and continued the journey till they took support at the 50 EMA. I have magnified and put the candles up for all to see. The candle had taken a support on 12 Aug and now 17 Aug. 3 EMA has definitely fallen below the 15 EMA and 15 EMA is just 14 points above the 20 EMA – actually poised for a fall below. Already the 315 has generated a sell – second time in last ten days. – now it has to be seen whether we bounce back vigoursly to show that we are range bound or continue down. The ADX gave a sell yesterday and today too the value is 14 – so it will only be in these coming few days that we will know whether this downtrend has enough strength to sustain. MACD remains bearish. RSI generated sell and TRIX is looking down. Slow Stochastic too has turned around but not really given a sell. All in all – majority are either generating sell or justifying a greater downfall of indexes.

As far as the option data is concerned the Put call ratio has reached 0.8866 and open interest is maximum in 4700 call and 4300 put. So on the down side the 4300 may be a difficult nut to crack. Besides this there is a build up in 4600 and 4500 call so upward journey may be as painful with 4700 being the absolute max. The option pain is minimum at 4500 – 4400 range at the moment. Inspite of reliance defying the general bearishness of the markets I was certain that it will never cross 2100 because of the highest call buildup there and now I am even more certain as basically there is only call buildup with very less put writing – so the downside in reliance may be expected more than the yesterday’s 94 Rs odd fall.

To summarise global cues remain to be bearish. On charts all seems favouring the bears though a small bounce cannot be ruled out due to the ferocity of the fall yesterday. The options are still not showing the extreme of sentiments but still favours the bears. Ideal strategy is to remain short – do not hold shorts if likely to close above 4604, If holding log best would be get off the bus at the best levels today – and do not hold longs in any case if closing below 4464. For intraday go short below 4486 and long above it.

Indicator	Bullish/Bearish	Sell/Buy Signal	Nifty at signal	Points gained/lost since (4387)	Remarks
315 Strategy	Bearish	Sell/17 Aug	4387	-
ADX	Bearish	Sell/17 Aug	4387	-
MACD	Bearish	Sell/06 Aug	4586	+ 199
RSI	Bearish	Sell/07 Aug	4387	-
Slow Stochastic	--	--	--	--	No signal
Options	Neutral / bearish	--	--	--

P.KANDASAMY)

Nifty :-Close - 4387.90. Sell below 4360 with sl 4395 for tgt 4335-4315-4290. Buy above 4405 with sl 4380 for tgt 4425-4450-4475. Buy at dips to 4250 with sl 4220 for tgt 4295-4320-4335. 1.RIL :- Sell below 1920 with sl 1945 for tgt 1898-1880-1865. 2.LNT :-Sell with sl 1436 for tgt 1392-1382-1365. 3.JPHydro :- Sell with sl 81 for tgt 77-75.50 below 75.50 it can touch 71-69. 4.Jaipra :- Sell below 198 with sl 201 for tgt 194-191-189. 5.KPIT :- Sell at rise to 59.25 - 60 with sl 62 for tgt upto 56.

buy nifty- above 3597 sl- 3569 tar- 3616/3654 sell nifty - below 3520 sl- 3547 tar- 3470/3434. nifty range for d week - 3520-3750 ( break n tarde any side will deciede future trend)