NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

VBC FERRO ALLOYS !!

The market buzz and a brief review suggests a good power story and in that case the stock can turn to be a big mover.

Technically a move above 350 on closing basis opens up to higher levels of 450.

RCOM :

The stock can move up to 270-280 in near term.

DISCLOSURE : Already recommended to clients at 251.
INDIA CEMENTS :

Bounce back candidate
APTECH :

Seems a major breakout is possible in months to come. Buy on declines with a stop of 170. Only for long term investors.


MY CHART

Nifty :: Move up exactly as we draw red arrow in 11th post before strong support zone with volume.. Made an bullish Hammer candle pattern.. Please check the Nifty chart we draw strong support and resistance with dark color and lines.. Now in up move Nifty face strong resistance in between 4545 to 4590/4600..Before this level watch resistance zone 4492 to 4510.. For 13th Aug 4300 to 4340 works as strong support zone.. Our strategy for 13th Aug buy in deep (S.L 4407) sell at high (S.L 4600).. Resistance for up move at 4474/4492/4510/4545/4590.. Supports at 4436/4407/4360/4340/4300..

(S S Cheema)

Hey guys am I missing something or there is some error in the FII and DII data? It has been ripped out from directly from the NSE site so I presume that the data presented is correct and the FIIs continue to be net sellers. Did it mean that after the FIIs had done with their selling the DIIs threw in whatever they could to save the markets from the massacre? I really do not have answers for this and neither did I find any solutions. In any case it has been my experience that not all share their experience or let us say knowledge – may be they are more busy making money.

The global cues are against the markets at the moment – let us start from one side. Asia was what we saw and reacted to – it was the colour of blood. Nikkei down 1.42%, Hang Seng Down 3.03% and Strait Times down 1%. Europe took cues from that and opened flat and fell, soon the markets there however started to improve and continued to go higher finishing at the highest for the day. Of course the US trend laid the path for the upswing. The US too started flat but soon went on to touch new highs – now in md session trading flat at around their best levels. Dow as of now is 1.25% up, Nasdaq up 1.64% and S&P up 1.21%. I am enclosing the write up from the Yahoo finance that I find it important that you go through and know what is happening.

I quote…

Stocks jumped in light trading Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement. Major stock market indicators rose more than 1 percent, including the Dow Jones industrial average, which gained 120 points to reverse a sharp slide Tuesday.

For months, investors have been looking for evidence that the economy is strengthening and pulling out of recession. Traders pay particular attention to the Fed's assessments of the economy. The latest is due at 2:15 Eastern when the central bank concludes a two-day meeting on interest rates.

It is widely expected that the central bank will hold the federal funds rate near zero. What investors are uncertain about it how the Fed will size up the economy -- whether it sees further signs of strengthening that would justify the gains in stocks since the spring.About four stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 439.1 million shares, compared with 503.4 million shares traded Tuesday. Light volume price moves and could be overstating investors' enthusiasm ahead of the Fed decision.The market is bouncing back a day after posting its biggest loss in five weeks. The Dow slid 1 percent and the S&P 500 index lost 1.3 percent. (Source: Click Here)

Coming to my favourite – the technicals. The candle was a hammer and purely from the candles point of view it can signal a reversal – reversal from the present downtrend. But also importantly it the candle just shied a dot short of hitting 50 EMA running at 4342. The 3 EMA remains firmly below the 15 EMA and as of today also crashed below the 20 EMA standing on top of 25 EMA exactly at 4471. SO on that account the bears should not really loose their sleep. The volumes were still low. The ADX has improved by a point to be at 17 – but that too is weak still. MACD is still bearish and the divergence has increased – mind you. RSI is at 49.7 and today too I will disregard it as a bearish crossover. We will give it another day. TRIX is looking down and Slow Stochastic while still remaining in oversold territory has generated a buy signal. Very fairly and squarely we remain bearish as far as the technicals are concerned. What you also see in this chart on the left is the dots of the Parabolic SAR (10, 2 , 20). They too are red as of now.

The options data has no change so the Put call remains a shade below 1. So all in all the Global cues are likely to remain strong in view of the Fed meet outcome. The Hammer and Slow Stochastic can signal bullish run whereas ADX, MACD, TRIX continue to signal bearish undertones. Options are not likely to play a role except the 4700 being a strong reistance upwards.

Indicator	Bullish/Bearish	Sell/Buy Signal	Nifty Level at signal	Points gained / lost since (4457)	Remarks
Harami	-	-	-	-	Signal has played it part and buried
Hammer	Bullish (reversal)	-	-	-
315 Strategy	Bearish	Sell / 10 Aug	4437	(-) 20
ADX	Bearish	Sell / 07 Aug	4481	+ 24
MACD	Bearish	Sell / 10 Aug	4437	(-) 20
RSI	-	-	-	-	Disregarding – waiting for a clearer indication
Slow Stochastic	Bullish	Buy / 12 Aug	4457	0
Options	Neutral	-	-	-

So we might be reaching the stage where it might be wise to sit on sidelines especially if the market close in green. All the same the best strategy as of now would be to remain short. Do keep a stoploss for the shorts at 4516 on closing and if you are long then do not hold if the market closes below 4386. For the day – if market is above 4483 – go long and below it go short. Best of luck to everyone for tomorrow.

Explanation given by ID Stockstar for my first Paragraph on ‘Stockezy’ on 12 Aug:

Well cash selling many times used just as one way of doing cross arbitrage!

Like when nf shorted at 4700 level with call writing done and put buying done....also stock future shorting done.......so only thing that remains is using cash stocks to bring it down....so cash basket selling used to help make all 3 trades in profit. now question remains what happens to cash stocks......if they want to keep trend up they just buy more stock futures at bottom and reverse nf future and option positions.....and now how to take nifty uppppppp take it up with spot cash buying in nifty stocks and nifty future buying!

If u see all data in toto for last 10 days u can make out!

TO highlight more.....when nf was at 4700 for three days nf was rising with lower nf future volume and stock future short positions were added up and call writing was on.....more so in medium term nifty calls like sept and nf was waiting to dip yesterday nearly all positions started reversing hence thats reason for strong pullback today as they defend lower put writing very well in closing!

Hence now swing trade wise unless 4350 breaks in closing basis trend is up!

Bramesh

Nifty at last held the crucial support of 4385 on closing basis.This will be treated as a good trend reversal sign as per my understanding.Adding fuel to the fire is dow shooting up 160+ point as i write this post.

Nifty now will face resistance around 4501 4544 4562 and 4600.

Few Trading Ideas


Formed a bullish hammer on EOD charts Facing resistance around 34 EMA buy of 687 for a tgt of 700 719

Suzlon as i am bullish on this stock from past few trading sessions Real run up will start once it start moving up above its 5 EMA which is at 87 for a tgt of 90 and 94

RIL also will move above 2012 for a tgt of 2034 2069 2096

*M J Akhtar*)

Nifty made a high of 4731.45 on 4th Aug 2009. Subsequently, on 12th of August it touched a low of 4359.40. The Range comes out to be 371.8. On correction watch following levels :::

=>Low + 371.8*23.6% = 4447.15

=>Low + 371.8*38.2% = 4501.40

=>Low + 371.8*61.8% = 4589.20

=>Low + 371.8*78.6% = 4651.60

=>low + 371.8*127.2%= 4832.30

The minimum target for correction as of now should be 38.2% i.e, 4501.40

SVShah)

It was a decent session of trade today through heavy news flow - poor global cues, monsoon woes and swine flu worries. The market discounted the robust IIP numbers and recovered from the day's lows to close almost flat today. Sensex shut shop at 15020, down 54 points and Nifty at 4457, down 13 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 0.25% and BSE Small cap index was up 0.47%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 520 against declines of 715 on the BSE. Top Nifty gainers included Bharti Airtel, Ranbaxy and Tata Motors while losers were Tata Steel, TCS and Cairn India.

The market did open flat to negative and once again due to short selling we seen decent downside and nifty as expected by me could not break the major support zone of 4345 (50 EMA ) and turned very smartly to kiss and intraday immediate resistance level of 4470 (3 EMA) and closed above 4385 which is its major support for the week. Market will face again stiff resistance near 4550-60 range in days to come and if it fails to sustain above this mark then we can see this selling continue towards 4355-25 level in this week too.Still we are having good support zone near 4380-4350 range for this week and on close to close base if we are going to hold it then there would be relief rally in the upside is not ruled out till 4525-55 as well.Global cues are if not going to help then gap down open can lead another round of sell off but again not much below 4410-4350,overall strength is weak looking until we cross decisively above 4525 level on close to close basis.

NIFTY (4457.5)

Resistance : 4495 / 4520 / 4550 / 4585 / 4625

Support : 4415 / 4385 / 4335 / 4280

SENSEX (15020.16)

Resistance : 15165 / 15305

Support : 14790 / 14555

NIFTY FUT (4460) : NIFTY Would Face Resistance @ 4585 & 4635 Levels.Book Maximum Profits Around These Levels.

Resistance : 4505 / 4550 / 4580 / 4630

Support : 4380 / 4305 / 4260

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 2.22% with 5% increasing volumes indicating forming of long positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive with volatility.

On Thursday,Opening Is Flat To Positive,

Buy NIFTY Above 4440,Sl Below 4410,Tgt 4455/4485/4520/4550

Sell NIFTY Below 4400,Sll Above 4430,Tgt 4385/4355/4320/4290

BUY

DISHTV Abv 40,Sl 35,Tgt 45/50/55+ (Positional)

APTECH,Sl Below 195,Tgt 210/15/25+ (Positional)

JPASSOCIATES@ 205/10,Sl Below 180,Tgt 225/40/55/70/85+ (Positional Delivery)

LITL Around 415,Sl 410,Tgt 425/35+(Positional)

IDEA@ 75,Sl 70,Tgt 80/85/90

TATAMOTORS@ 445,Sl 435,Tgt 455/65/75+

BANKINDIA@ 315,Sl 310,Tgt 320/25

PNB@ 680,Sl 670,Tgt 695/700/705

SBIN (1703),Sl Below 1675,Tgt 1715/25/35

Futures

DLF (373.1) : Buy@ 365,Sl 360,Tgt 375/80/85 (Close Above 385,Go For BTST)

BHARTI : Buy@ 405,Sl 395,Tgt 410/15/20/25/30/35/40 [Lot Size : 250]

INFY (2043) : Sell@ 2060,Sl 2080,Tgt 2030/20/10/1990

TISCO (443.7) : Sell@ 450,Sl 460,Tgt 440/35/30/25

SESAGOA : Sell@ 230,Sl 233,Tgt 227/25/23/21/15/14/12 [Lot Size : 1500]

Relcap Chart - Daily:

Today, Relcap took support at the 61.8% of the last up move from 13th July low of Rs.700 to 6th Aug high of Rs.938 and formed a hammer in daily charts. If Relcap gives any entry opportunity tomorrow, one can enter long in this scrip. Expecting it to move at least up to 880 levels. I will update again if entry triggers tomorrow.

Relcap Intraday Chart - 15 mins:

On Intraday 15 min chart, RelCap formed AB=CD pattern with good symmetry and Fibonacci convergence as shown in above chart. I have taken some long positions at 805 today based on the AB=CD pattern and will add some more on another entry opportunity.

(TRADE TIGER)

(TRADE TIGER)

plz see this chart deside this stock for long

(TRADE TIGER)