The move today has simplified short term traders decision making process. Holding 14700 clearly indicates that one should keep index positions with that stoploss. We had similar tops around 15550 makes it clear that further momentum could be seen above that level.
So what do we do-- Nuthin on index focus on STOCKS - Broader market will be very exciting.
Stocks to watchout for :
IOC steadily going up ( Client reco at 565 )
ONGC hold for short term. GSPL rocking.
IFCI
Chart posted below plz check
If stays above 54 expect a tgt of 57.5/60/65 in extreme short term.
Disclosure ( Recommended to clients at 49.3 )
Rolta
After giving a false move yesterday because of index crack the stock has pulled back above 165. Sustained trading above 168 should take the stock to 180-190.
Uflex inds has given a small breakout and maybe headed to 90/98. Hold
Hikal Limited , ION Exchange,Bombay burmah ( tea story ) and ITD cementation look good for medium term investors. Liquidity a concern though.
YUKEN india has given a breakout buy on declines to 75 tgt 90/100. Do ur own research
Tata Elexsi should catch momentum as all midcap IT stocks have. Above 176 expect a quick move to 190+.
Important note: I am publishing this post to give some idea on Germany economy and the fate of Indian companies which have operations in Germany.
Why Germany is crucial? Germany is responsible for 3.4% of world trade.
Niche sectors in Germany: Wind Energy, Solar Energy, Printed Electronics and Waste Management.
Popular sector in Germany: Auto.
Indian companies in Germany: IT, Pharma and Auto.
Positive data from Germany:
1. German investor confidence jumped to its highest level in more than three years. This is highest level since April, 2006.
2. Germany recorded a positive growth of 0.3% in this quarter and is officially out of recession. Analysts predicted 0.3% contraction in this quarter.
3. Germany's largest lender, Deutsche Bank reported 70% increase in net profit in this quarter.
4. Germany has no housing bubble but economy suffered due to its excessive dependence on exports. So, its fate more related to global economy.
Negative data from Germany:
1. Unemployment is at highest levels since 2007. US is also facing same problem.
2. Germany is an export oriented country. So, stronger Euro is a big problem.
3. Positive GDP growth is quarter-on-quarter basis but economy shrank by 5.5% if you think year-on-year basis.
4. More than expected fall in retail sales. Same problem in US also
5. German automaker Daimler announced 1 billion euro losses.
6. Germany is in deflation – first time since 1987.
7. According to analysts, this GDP growth is due to massive stimulus package and subsides along with money.
8. According to experts, German companies may face credit problems in the coming days.
Hi All,
Reliance took trend line support at 1924 and had a very dull session today,But volumes were OK so this indicates an distribution pattern.now if market needs to go up RIL will always play a crucial role.Looking at the charts once can take long above 1958 gor a target of 1975 1994. 2000-2010 will be a good resistance zone above that 2030 2061 and 2100 are my targets in coming Expiry,
- There is a bullish hidden divergence in all momentum oscillators.
- The 5 ema is at 4482.
- The Nifty would be oversold below 4357 and overbought above 4607, as on today.
- We can look forward to the overbought state in coming sessions. Don't remain short above 4525
- Very aggressive traders looking for overnight gains might want to short tomorrow when 5 minute RSI > 80, for 50 - 70 points, gain on Friday.(This advice is only for professional traders)
- Nifty continues to be rangebound.
Thanks to my critic and my friend Ka for alerting me on a squeeze L&T. Both these charts are daily and the chart below show the details. Again, the bandwidth is at a 6 month low. Expect some action here.
The current state of market reminds me of a movie scene where a bus is hanging precariously over the edge of a mountain road but somehow refuses to slip.
That’s what Nifty has been doing over last few days. Everytime, it goes near 4360 - it creates a scare and then does a amazing turnaround. But having said that - the fact of the matter is that market is in precarious state; and it needs to race past above 4620 to take the market out of mess. Till that happens - this kind of गयी गयी बची बची game will be on.
This is a good market for intra-day traders but certainly scary one for positional traders.
Nifty intra-day Chart
It was a good day for intra-day bulls. Nifty did all the right things - first it took support at yesterday’s low of 4375 during initial 30 min of the trade and then managed a sustainable bounce. Nifty moved from 4375 to 4485 in 2.5 hours with no volatility. The pace of move was surprising.
I do not know how should we desribe the action - short covering. Some of the momentum above 4440-4450 may also have come from intra-day bears who would have first shorted and later covered adding more momentum on intra-day basis.
Nifty 5-day Chart
The 5 day chart reflects state of indecisiveness. Nifty is all over the place. There are no great local triggers; and in absence of strong news flow - Nifty is getting kicked from one end to another based on global cues…and I see no reason why this may not continue for some more time.
Looking Ahead
The lows of August 12 i.e. 4360 become very significant now. Based on today’s action - one cannot make any conclusive statements. It’s 50-50. The market has attained state of equilibrium where fundamental analysts are comfortable with valuations and technical analysts are also getting resigned to the fact - we are trapped in a range. Some external force needs to be applied for Nifty to make large ranging moves. Till that happens - we need to wait
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