NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

For a brief moment Sensex did touch 16k !! But the volumes are still not convincing which indicates there is lack of strength in the index to take it to 17.5-18k in the current upmove and we may see consolidation or dips from 16050-16500.

The important short term levels on downside are 15500 the breakout point and the recent lows of 14750. Only a break below the above levels can confirm a change in trend in simpler terms. So no need to make quick conclusions with intra day corrections or some sessions of consolidation.

Continue to trade stock specific with long bias but a strict stoploss and trailing stoploss to conserve profits. Hope traders would have accumulated lot of profits in last few months !!! we have been heavily long ever since 9.5-10k.Now its time to conserve those gains in this 16.5 or 17.7k upsides.

Will stick to stock specific views and lesser updates on Index unless we break below 15.5k.

Stocks to watchout for :

RCOM and PFC can exit on rise at cost or small gains. Rolta, Alstom keep trailing.

Sterlite keep a stop of 655 if taken position at 670. Kotak did the tgts whereas Hind Zinc dint move much.

The client trades continue to go on superb but cant disclose open positions :) but wait for the monthly trade report.

Mercator Lines and IOB charts posted . Look good for short term on breakout.

Rolta if stays above 165 can head to 175/190 in quick time.

Maharashtra Seamless above 265 if stays can tgt 285-300 in short term.

PSL Ltd, Nilkamal Ltd , Manugraph look interesting with long term view. PSL may move up in the short term as well to 150.

RUMOURs and Badhi Baatein ! TAKE UR OWN CALL .... No

Nagarjuna Agrichem the rumour mills suggest strong upmove in next 1-2 mths as agro based listed options are limited.

VBC ferro is another power story which can get re-rated with so much of power IPOs.

J Kumar Infra could go IRB way and notch new highs. Century Textiles will soon catch up on the bandwagon as cements and realty both sectors r booming.

Most of the metal,coal and shipping Stocks are Jumping higher. But Baltic Dry Index the leading indicator of

global economy is constantly in decline mode since June 2009.

GANN FANN Charts drawn between the 2003 low and 2006 High. GANN FAN charts

shows a breakout above 900 and 1380 levels followed by hitting near the resistance region

1765. Now Gann Supports comes near 1400 levels. As the recent trend is steeper possibly a consolidation to downturn is expected in medium term. Failure to hold 1400 possibly target the next immediate support level of Rs 1000

Chart 1 Shows the Fibo Values Drawn between the All time high 21206 and march low 8047 in sensex.

61.8% retracement comes near 16179

Chart 2 Shows the Fibo Values Drawn between the All time high 21206 and alltime low 7717 in sensex.

61.8% retracement comes near 16054

MY CHART

Nifty :: Exactly match pattern like Jun 2008.. As we say in last post once again Nifty take support at strong support zone and move up with volume. And its good sign for bullish Inverted H&S pattern. Now for 5th Aug watch strong support zone in between 4644 to 4630...And resistance zone 4730 to 4788.. Be careful at higher level up to 61% retracement level of entire fall 4788. Our strategy for 5th Aug same as yesterday up to 4630 buy in deep (S.L 4630) Sell at high (S.L 4821) .. Resistance for up move at 4730/4740/4788/4821.. Supports at 4667/4644/4630/4620/4570..

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened weak note and saw selling pressure at higher level and close with red zone.For coming session if nifty trade above 4700 levels it likely to test 4744-4790 levels .On the lower side trading below 4620 we will break the trend line and we can see healthy correction .On the daily chart Rsi had reach near resistances zone and near the breakdown point last sell of keep tight stop loss for longs.

(ss)

Rate of Change is a beautiful momentum indicator. It compares today's price with the price n periods ago. A 10 day r-o-c will compare today's price to the price 10 days before. Above we see r-o-c for 3 time frames - 10, 50 and 100 days. On the short term 10 day frame, momentum appears to be weakening and we are seeing the markets kind of tired at these levels. If we now move to the 50 day frame, we see that momentum had breached its previous low but has turned up again (blue line, middle pane). Finally, we look at the 100 day frame and see a strong uptrend in momentum - the previous peak has been taken out and the recent reading is clearly above it. Prognosis? Weakish in the short term but strong in intermediate time frames.

IG PETROCHEM closed up 3.950 at 36.300. Volume was 2,122% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 7% wider than normal.

IG Petrochem

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

• We are only interested in a long position.
• The momentum is up.
• The upward momentum is accelerating.
• If not already long this is a good place to look for a valid signal to buy.

Bharat Mudgal’s comments:

IG PETROCHEM given an upside breakout which can take it to 48 > 59 in the medium to long term. On can buy at current price and on any downside to 31 with a stopLoss at 25 on a closing basis.

About six weeks back, wavetimes anticpated that India’s Sensex index will dip to the low 13,000 and then rally again. This has materialized. (If you would like to refer back, please navigate from the top menu under Equities/Indices/Asian Indices/India). How far can the fifth wave go? The earliest target comes between 16045 and 16115. A clean brak past the latter level could potentially take the index up by another 1000 points. But there is currently no reason for us to be buying at these high levels. If anything I would strongly recommend taking profits near here and stay in cash until we get a move back to around 13,000 again. Take a look at the attached chart and let me have your thoughts

Santy

As you can see in the chart, nifty is testing a major support/resistance zone now. If nifty breaks 4710/30 with high volume and keep on staying above 4700 then next target for it is seen at 4980 (161.8% Fibonacci Extension). However since today it closed below 4700 (4680), it looks like nifty will come down to 4570 before going higher and touching 4900. Tomorrow market is expected to see some more selling volume. If this happens, then SELL at or below 4660 with stop loss at 4700 for target at 4630/15( Always check lower highs and lower lows pattern for selling conditions). If selling continues though out the day, then we could see nifty coming down to 4590 (to cover the GAP)

Hope u all njoyed Hindalco Few more Trading Ideas Updated.



IVRCL Buy above 348 if sustained






















TATA Steel Buy above 492-94 Zone is taken out Stock is moving towards 532

And if unable to cross go short 460 442

(Govindakrishna)

Praj looks interesting.Volumes have picked up and price is above its 200 EMA.
It has resistance at 100 and support at 85.