Friday, August 14, 2009

NEWSLETTER


Nifty :: Yesterday Hammer candle pattern given thrust in up swing with volume. Be careful once again Nifty enter in strong supply zone. Required major breakout of 4736 with volume to give support of Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern.. Till then watch strong resistance zone 4678 to 4736.. Our strategy for 14th Aug up to 4736 if Nifty open gap up sell at high (S.L 4736) buy in deep (S.L 4500).. If Nifty open flat and turn down 4557 to 4500 zone works as strong support zone so change in strategy as buy in deep (S.L 4500) sell at high (S.L 4736).. Resistance for up move at 4638/4655/4678/4682/4702/ 4722/4736.. Supports at 4557/4530/4500/4473..
(Important :: in 2day’s trade Dow Jones and S&P 500 made an rounding top bearish chart pattern in hourly chart and that’s why be careful at higher level ,avoid to give long commitment at higher level just book profit at high and wait for breakout)


Indian stock markets today made biggest one-day gains in the last 2 months. Investors might have surprised by sudden turnaround in the stock market moments. Why markets are behaving like this?



What happened in the last 24 hours?



August 12, 11 AM: Sensex lost 300 points and investors are bearish due to swine flu worries



August 12, 1 PM: IIP data is an unexpected positive surprise. Operators started removing short positions.



August 12, 3:30 PM: Sensex recovered by 250 points and ended the day with marginal 50 point loss.



August 13, 1 AM: Dow Jones ended on positive note on hopes of recession ending by 3rd quarter and positive earnings.



August 13, 8 AM: News papers highlighted Government tax draft which was released for discussions among people (don’t forget the word “discussions”).



August 13, 10 AM: Markets opened on positive note on hopes of recession ending in US and tax reforms.



August 13, 1 PM: Sensex made further gains after positive news from France and Germany (surprise GDP growth).

Global-economy-stock-market



If stock markets can move in such a wild manner in 24 hours, it is foolish to predict about its moments over the next 6-9 months. I at least try to analyse the impact of various factors over the stock markets in short-medium-long term.





India outperformed its global peers, rallied firmly due to strong global cues and closed at the high point of the day. Sensex shut shop at 15518, up 498 points and Nifty at 4605 up 147 points from the previous close. The markets seem to have forgotten all the bad news like monsoon and concerns on GDP growth for FY10 and have traded in green for the whole day. Infact in the last two days, all the news that is coming in from domestic and international front is all good. Starting with the announcement on the new tax structure, better than expected IIP numbers and the strong global markets, all these helped the 30 stock. BSE Sensex to close at 15518.49, up by almost 500 points and strong 3.32 per cent over the previous closing. While the Nifty closed the day at 4605 points, up 3.31 per cent. Even the European markets are currently trading in the positive zone.


The market did open gap up and due to short recovery we seen decent rally since morning and nifty as expected by me once crossed the resistance level of 4550 there was decent buying and long seen above this mark and nifty crossed and closed with a decent gain and closed above its major resistance zone of 4550.Global peers if going to support then another decent opening is not ruled out in the Indian market which can lead our market to kiss 4651 and then 4730 in the higher side in no time.the market will face mild selling pressure near 4650 tomorrow but as long as it holds the major downside supports level of 4545-30 every downside will attract short recovery and it will come up again.Over all sentiments are turned to neutral to positive as of now and our market will continue to keep flying until any global sell off is comes.




NIFTY (4605)

Resistance : 4650 / 4680 / 4710

Support : 4550 / 4520 / 4480


SENSEX

Resistance : 15720 / 15880

Support : 15230 / 15175


NIFTY FUT (4611) : NIFTY Having Near Major Supports At 4520 & Near Term Major Resistance Around 4770/4810 Range

Resistance : 4650 / 4690 / 4720

Support : 4545 / 4505 / 4475




MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI down 5.27% with 23% decreasing volumes indicating short covering.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.




On Friday,Opening Is Flat To Positive,

Buy NIFTY Above 4585,Sl Below 4570,Tgt 4625/40/65/4710/35

Sell NIFTY Below 4570,Sl Above 4585,Tgt 4530/15/4490/45/20




BUY



CUMMINS@ 330/35,Sl 320,Tgt 345/55/65/75

SBIN (1798),Sl Below 1780,Tgt 1830/1840

ABG@ 175,Sl 170,Tgt 180/85


NDTV Above 175,Sl 170

PENINLAND Above 80,Sl 75

REDINGTON Above 240,Sl 230



LNT

Buy Above 1425,Sl 1415,Tgt 1435/45/55/65

Sell Below 1415,Sl 1425,Tgt 1405/1395/85/75


ONGC

Buy Above 1135,Sl 1120,Tgt 1145/55/65/75+

Sell Below 1120,Sl 1135,Tgt 1110/1100/1090/80+


BPCL

Buy Above 515,Sl 510,Tgt 520/25/30/35

Sell Below 505,Sl 510,Tgt 500/495/90/85




FUTURES



SBI (1799) : Buy@ 1770,Sl 1750,Tgt 1790/1805/1820/1835/50 (Close Abve 1835,BTST Longs,Sl 1815)

ORCHIDCHEM : Buy@ 105,Sl 103.5,Tgt 107/08/09/10/11/12 [Lot Size : 2100]



UNIONBNK : Sell@ 215,Sl 220,Tgt 210/08/06/04/02/200+ [Lot Size : 1050]



STERLITE (660.1) :

Buy@ 650,Sl 635,Tgt 660/70/80/85

Sell@ 685,Sl 700,Tgt 675/65/55/50


TISCO (470.5) :

Buy@ 460,Sl 450,Tgt 470/75/80 ( Close Above 475,Hold Longs As BTST,Sl 465)

Sell@ 485,Sl 495,Tgt 475/70/65






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