MKT NEWS

(NOORESH)

Sensex extreme short term view :
Sensex is inching towards the upper end of the flag . It needs to be seen whether it can close above 9300-9500 and give a fresh breakout which could tgt 9900/10500 or more ( channel line imp) . So wait and watch is the view for a move either beyond 8300 or 9300-9500.
Till then the trades should be extreme short term.

Sensex medium term channel :

In the channel if we see it was followed for the last few rallies. On the same basis i expected a bounce back from 11k zones.

This is where the bottom picking strategy dint work and luckily we dint advise more then 50 % allocation and quite a lot of stocks gave an exit on bounce back to 10500 whereas some other bounce backs saved us.

Currently the last bounce got hit at the channel zone.

Only a re-entry and close above the channel would open a shot to 12500 zone which is a limit to any rally as of now. Only a close above this channel would give a long term turnaround.

Fibonacci Retracements :

In all the previous pullbacks/bear rallies have gone to the extent of 50/61 % before fizzling out into the next drop.

The current drop was very deep and a more then expected fall and so we have seen the rally fizzle at 38 % zone itself.

After that we have seen a 80 % retracement of the bear pullback.

In the next couple of months we have to see whether markets have the strength to retrace to the 50/61 % zone of 11650/12500 which would be the max limit to a bear rally.

Only a move out of such pattern and a higher top higher bottom on monthly charts would signal the end of the bear phase.

Long Term Sensex :

The long term flag or channel took place at 8k which we had spotted 2-3 yrs back.

The current correction has tested the channel /flag line which now remains an important bottom. Although in the worst of worst cases it can test the very long term line shown in chart below.

The dotted red line shows the long term trend change after which its been all about bear rallies and strong falls.

Very Long Term Sensex :

Blue Channels show the strong bull run.

Red Line shows the most long term line which may come to 6.2-7.5 k on diff time zones.

Light Blue Channel shows the consolidation pattern of 13 yrs.

As per fibo a long term corrective cycle should bottom out arnd 8-13-21 months. Preferred count is between 8-13 mths we are through 9 already. Next 3-5 months could be the end of the bear phase or find of a major bottom.

All the above views are purely technical and the levels are not very exact but a range which could give a good guide to next actions to be taken. Most of the views are based on long term and volatility would be high in the next 3-5 months but this would present very gr8 intermediate opportunities as well as be a very tough test for investors/traders.

mkt news

(Ilango)

Inspite of bullish global cues, Nifty got sold off at 2780, fell 150 points due to settlement liquidation.
Nifty closed below 5ema...sell on rises till it clears the channel top..

Last support for the bulls at 2630.

3240--2860 =380(1st dn)
2860-3160......(2nd up)
3160--2503 =657 (3rd dn)
2503--2790.....(4th up)
2784 - 380 = 2404(A likely target for 5th dn)

As the 3rd is already more than the 1st, 5th can be more than 380 also.

As we are in the 5th down, let us look for a possible bottom on Thursady(Settlement day) or Friday based on the world market cues. A rally past 2784 will cancel out this view and the uptrend may resume..










(ss)

Today's gap up opening gets sold into and the Nifty closes in the red. You may want to experiment with a strategy known as "fading the gap" (Buy at the open on a gap down, and sell at the open on a gap up). This can be useful on days like this. Our markets are internally very weak and any gap ups due to external triggers such as the Citi bailout plan, are likely to get sold into. I tried to search a link but I'm in a hurry, so I'll leave this job to you. Google search --->> Fading the Gap

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on positive note but rally fizzle out as day progress and close in red zone. For coming session if nifty trade below 2630 it can test 2540-2580 zone. On the up side if nifty trade above 2710 it can test 2770 .

US marketes ended mixed.

Europe ended green.

Asia has opned mixed and I expect markets to open flat to negative.

Indian markets will witness a selling preasure very soon.

Be aware.

Levels to watch out for BSE Sensex are - Support at 8700 and 8450 and resistance for upmove at 9635 and 10200

Levels on NIFTY - Support at 2550 and resistance for upmove at 2865 and 3110

Day trading ideas.

HDIL

Buy above 77.90 for targets of 79 and 81

Sell below 74 for targets of 72 and 70

Unitech

Buy above 28.90 for targets of 29.90 and 32

Sell below 27.90 for targets of 27.10 and 26.10

Sesa Goa

Buy above 69 for targets of 72 and 73.90

Sell below 62 for targets of 60 and 58.50

Sell RELIANCE below 1090,.
Sell ICICIBANK below 330,
Sell DLF below 195,

We waited to short above 2800, but that never happened and nifty kept on falling.

for intraday, nifty will be weak below 2635, and another closing below 2655 may take nifty to 2541-2527 levels

only if trades above 2655 may go on to hit 2750 levels again.

(B.N.RAO - STOCKS DOCTOR)

The fear for “Longs” holding threatening the Bulls to hold despite the global good news due to the positive cues from the US. The markets are not enthused by the global cues because of delay in keeping the rate cut by the RBI and the Govt. is seriously busy with the election schedule posing a threat to Bulls.
The technicals were not violated due to this steep fall from a high of 2790 level to 2638 level. The steep fall push out those small investors who bought at lover levels and keep them away as this wild swings create tension. The informed individuals and HNIs, DIIs, MFs and the FIIs take the lower level to build their positions to average out and churn the portfolios to performing sectors from non performing sectors.
The concern is that the SBI trading below 1080 level and the Nifty trading below 2670-80 level. The Nifty low building is good but the pruning highs are a concern as the heavy weights turned bearish. The Bears are not applying the pressure but the Bulls are running away to accept the positions at higher level due the negative sentiment spread over the bourses. In case the Nifty crosses the resistance at 2693-97 level and closes above 2670 then the consolidation is on the buy side. The RIL has to cross the 1140 level and close above 1109-11 level, SBI has to cross the 1147 and close above 1120. The ONGC has to cross the 697 resistance and the Bharti shall trade above 640 levels to accept the bear pressure is over and the positions built at the lower level.

Use it learn & Learn to make money and convey the same to others.

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :
Sensex almost kissed the upper end of the flag and has turned back to close in the red. The drift in the down flag continues with no clear direction. The simplest thing to do now would be to wait for a breakout above 9300-9500 or a dip below 8300 -8200 to take a fresh view in short term.

Till then all the trades on the index or out of the index should be for intra-day or extreme short term be it long or short.

Technically i had expected a bottoming out arnd 8 or 13th month zone. we are through 8-9 mths already and next 3-4 mths would be the real challenge for the Sensex and investors/traders with gr8 intermediate opportunities !... So best of luck to all as the real test is here it seems...


Index Stocks and observations :

None of the large caps have actually given a fresh buy or a sell signal with confirmation and are poised crucially. HDFC Bank and SBI charts have been shown. Reliance inds 1000 -1030 is crucial. Tata Steel is almost near to oct low or abt to break it. The next couple of weeks would decide whether these stocks give a clear signal.

Stocks to watchout for :

Of the stocks suggested for bottom watch Praj , Unitech, Aditya Birla Nuvo , Unitech gave small bounces whereas Punj Lloyd has broken the low.

Punj lloyd if sustains below 140s could well touch 120 zone.

NALCO above 193 could see some move.

Market Observations and Thoughts :

The last few weeks since October whosoever i meet on the street remains very very bearish on markets , businesses etc. But one thing which has amazed me is the words , belief are not matching their actions. Lot many investors are speaking gloomiest words but not selling but in cases are actually adding to a junk portfolio. Although restructuring is what is the best thing to do on rallies.

Just a dummy conversation would clear the scenario lot many investors are faced with.

Wise mkt -men: Where do u think is the Sensex headed.
Investor : Ah ye to 6k-8k ho jaayega aur wahi rahega.
Wise mkt-men : So what are u gonna do or wat did u do.
Investor : Nothing just watching my portfolio sink to 30 % value. I no more have the guts to buy.!!!
Wise mkt-men : The guts are needed to sell .... Did u sell at 17k , 16k , 14k .Although u were bearish all through and u still are.
Investor : Ab kya karu itne loss me kaise bechoo ...
Wise mkt-men : All u can do is better have guts next time around to buy !!! as the next gut -challenge is coming in next 3-4 mths which will not be about selling !!!.

Lay Long term investors sell in panic not in loss.....

(NOORESH)

SBI :

If we see in the chart the levels of 960-1000 is an important technical level with many parameters like trendlines , channels , fibonacci.
The stock needs to climb back frm closer to 1000 levels in coming weeks or in a breakdown below 960 could see 840-700 in some panic sell.


HDFC Bank :

800 zone is a very important technical level for the stock from different parameters like prev supports , fibo levels, patterns etc.

The stock needs to cover above 850 zone sooner or in a breakdown could also see 650 zones.

The above two charts are being just looked through a technical point of view . Both are in crucial stages. The above two stocks could be pivotals for the next move for Sensex which is either crossing 8300 or 9300.

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on slightly lower on weak global cues. Market traded in narrow range and close in flat zone .For coming session if nifty trade above 2754 it can test 2860- 2900 on other side 2630 will act as support zone .Nifty will more react on global cues .

(Ilango)

Many stocks have done 80% retracement to the rise from Oct.27 bottom and are poised for a rally.Once Nifty clears 2739 and then 2860, 3000& above is possible.

If Reliance(1145.00) can hold the 1100 bottom and rally past 1220, it has the potential to reach 1305 to 1400.., provided Nifty stays in uptrend.



(Ilango)

Nifty is struggling to close above 5 ema, just managing it..
Nifty unable to close above 5 high ema (Didn't even touch it..)...momentum is lacking..

Trade cautiously till a convincing up trend materialises above 2860 (Channel break point)..Trade the points with resistances & supports..










(RAJAN BHATIA)

The markets became volatile right from the word go and traded in the range written in the blog today.....2750-2630,,,, hope all enjoyed todays call and again it proved to be a traders day.., Some amount of help is reqd. to push the markets to 2860 and above zone..Otherwise it may just start drifting downwards again..Lets hope some cues come from overseas markets ..weekly range pls. keep in mind for trading...take care cheers ..

(RAJAN BHATIA)

Looking at the chart above we are looking at a range of 2750-2870 and supports at 2630 zone.The TSI has turned positive but needs to cross zero to gather strength for any upmove..( the weekly range already given below ).The melt down over the weekend of CITI GROUP is having its effects on the Asian trade today,CITI incidently has good holdings in equities all around including India.Hope all turns out well, otherwise another round of liquidation can start in Asia etc.Trade with caution, as this week has lots of news coming, hopefully positive ,trade with the trend..Cheers.

Sell Reliance for a Target of 1170, 1155

Buy HDFCBANK for a Target of 848,860

Sell DLF for a Target of 198,194

Manas

though there is huge intraday volatility, nifty is still bullish, and the next fall will come only after market sees close to 2838 levels.

my gut feel is ( 85% sure) that market wont cross 2838 on closing basis, however gut feel shud never be trusted, and we will trade with SL only .

i will definately take short position in the range of 2800-2840 levels, and hold with SL above 2840 on closing basis.

i am not saying that we will fall heavily from those levels, but it can surely give 150-200 points in positional trade.

today for intraday, supp is at 2688 and resistence around 2770-2786 levels.

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :
Sensex has been sustaining above the lower end of the flag which comes to 8300-8500 zone. On the upside the flag level comes to 9300-9500 for this week. Ideally we should see Sensex making an attempt to that range in this week itself. Check the chart here --- .

The positive bias remains and a quicker pullback would give more momentum to the current counter move. Some days back had clearly stated that 8900 downside tgt done and markets could go down till 8300-8500 on the lower side. Sensex made a low of 8316 which was very close to the expected zone... CHECK CHART HERE . Also if one is buying it should be done closer to the lower end of the channel /flag only or wait for a breakout above the flag which comes to around 9300-9500 .

Crossover and sustaining above the flag would lead to a target of 9900/ 10500. The volatility would remain high as there are lot of overhead resistances.

For Sms updates.
http://labs.google.co.in/smschannels/subscribe/AnalyseIndia

Stocks to watchout for :

Deccan Chronicle Holdings has been seeing lot of insider trades of late and sustaining above the recent lows too. Technically sustaining 48 could again touch 55 stop would be 44.

GTL infra ... One of the rare stocks which has remained silent or not taken much crack in last 3-4 mths. 40-40.5 remains a resistance level above which it can tgt 47-50 levels.

HPCL , IOC , BPCL all Omcs have given a sharp bounce and nearing resistance zones which would be very difficult to cross.
HPCL 255-259 , IOC 418-423 .
Trades could be short closer to resistance with small stop or go long if sustains above those levels for quick trade.

NALCO a consolidation phase is on it looks like in the range of 140-190 . Closing above 193 would target 205-225.

Some stocks trading close to the Oct bottoms but have not broken and can see a bounce if doesnt break lows. If they do then expect a quick crack too. Go stock specific. Pick a trade as per your stock specific view.

Praj Inds 49. Aditya Birla Nuvo 420.
Punj lloyd 139.
Unitech 27 .
GMR Infra 45.

ss Nifty will get its trigger today. The first resistance comes in at the 20 period average at 2812. As we have seen plenty of times in the past, these triggers ( Citi bailout in this case) don't last long and the market resumes its main trend - down, sooner or later. Besides, to add some more spice to the set up, we have the F & O expiry approaching on Thursday.

newsletter

Sensex Technical View :

In the chart posted 2 days back it was stated that markets could also drift down till 8300-8500 which would be around 80-85 % retracement which is also a possibility in such corrections. Now let us list yet again some technical observations.

1) 80-85% retracement.

After markets bounced back from 7700 to 10945 we are seeing a correction of a quick bear rally. In such a correction as per technicals could correct to a max of 80-85 % also and the counter rally would remain in place. The retracement zone is 8250-8400 in such a case. So till markets hold above these levels the bear rally remains intact. A deviation below this level would lead to a violent move. ( Before we saw violent moves when markets dropped below the 11k zone which was an important pattern and support zone ).

2) Downward Channel /Flag .

As we see from the charts we are forming a flag type pattern. The drift has continued on the lower side but is still in the flag or channel. The major directional trigger could only be seen if markets cross the flag with a volume supported move. Till we see a clear move above the flag we will continue to watch this pattern.

3) Counter rally should last 20-40 sessions or 4-8 weeks.

Few weeks back had put up this chart where we have discussed that markets should sustain above the low of 7700 for 20-40 sessions or even 4-8 weeks.

CHART

Although in previous rallies we bounced back 25 % in this we had a bounce of 42 % already but the fall was also 50 % . So it would be difficult to guess whether we have already seen a top for the counter rally or we still go beyond it. But ideally the markets should continue to close above the 7700 zone for 4-8 weeks frm the low.

ALTERNATIVE MOVE :

Above i have listed some of the technical observations which project towards a possibility of 8250 holding on for some weeks. But what if markets start closing below 8250 the next scenario could be very violent and difficult to gauge. We will look into this scenario only if it comes till then its a stoploss of 8200-8250 on Sensex for longs.

Stocks to watchout for :

It would be difficult to trade positional till Sensex doesnt cross 9500 or 8200 convincingly.

As of now the best bounce back candidates would be .

RIL , LnT , Idea , SBI, ICICI. LIC Housing , Punj Lloyd in the large caps.

Market Observations and Thoughts :

The market consensus continues to remain very bearish with lots of justifications for newer lows very quickly. Can markets surprise against the consensus is the thing to watchout this week.

More updates on this section in the week.

MARKET WILL MOVE IN TANDOM DUE TO EXPIRY

BSE Sensex(8915.21) and Nifty(2693.45) closed 5.0% and 4.2% down last week.Inflation was also under control 8.90 v/s 8.98 last week.Crude oil was at 51$.Market declined due to concernes over auto sector crisis in USA .Rollover in the futures was very low before expiry.Support for Sensex is 8350 and for Nifty 2520.Resistance for Sensex is 9450 and Nifty is at 2850. Selling of FII was visible..Nifty put-call ratio was 1.03.Nifty 2600 call added open interest.HDIL and Chambal Fertilizer added open interest.RPL and TataSteel reduced open interest.

Strategy for Future Option players.

1)RPL(73.95) Lot Size-1675 Shares.
Buy one call option of December month strike price 75@7.00 Rs.
Sell one call option of December month strike price 80@5.20 Rs.
Premium Paid=7.00*1675=11725.00 Rs.
Premium Received=5.20*1675=8710.00 Rs.
Net Premium Paid=11725.00-8710.00=3015.00 Rs.
Maximum Profit=80-75=5*1675=8375-3015=5360.00 Rs.
Maximum Loss=3015.00 Rs.
Break-even=76.80 Rs.

2)NIFTY(2732) December month future-Lot Size 50 shares.
Buy one lot December month future@2732.00
Sell one call option of December month strike price 2800@171.00 Rs.
Premium Received=171.00*50=8550.00 Rs.
Max Profit=2800-2732=68.00*50=3400+8550.00=11950.00 Rs.
Max loss=Unlimited.

Trading Idea

1)Reliance(1124.35)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
2)IndHotel(47.75)Buy this stock in decline and trade.

BUY L&T ABOVE 770 TGT 810>827 STOPLOSS 747

BUY IBREAL ABOVE 101TGT 110>114 STOPLOSS 93

Last week nifty fell 4.2% but broken the seven days of losing trend on the Friday and close with handsome gains . For coming session if nifty trade above 2765 it can test 2851 -2953. on the daily chart upper trend line will act as resistance zone on the lower side 2540 -2520 will act support zone closing below 2520 it can test 2250 zone. For clear trend nifty has to close above 2976 so it can test 3154-3200 zone.

The Indian market opened positive note and close with handsome gain. After smart gain nifty drift in red zone in mid session but saw smart recovery and managed to close green zone .Nifty had test our level which mention on Friday newsletter 2722.For coming session nifty can test 2770 -2813 levels on the lower side2650 -2580 will act support zone .

weekly nifty

Question : Redlines Shows that Trend Lines are Broken So What

does it mean

Answer : Target : Rs900 in short term, Stop Loss 1,200 on closing basis

Indian Stock Markets have witnessed a worst hit. Indian markets are now down over 57% from its peak. Its almost at its 3 years low.

Markets need a good breath now. Traders are worried and even Investors.

Recession has covered the whole globe.

No one has been left out. No fundamentals in markets as of now.

When I look at NIFTY charts I see an uptrend to come till 2780 in short term.

Indian markets will be the first to recover says SEBI cheaf CB Bhave.

Stocks you should look out are.

LNT - Plans to add 10,000 staff by 2010 and the stock has good fundamentals so a reason to buy its Support is at 665 and 711 and a resistance for upmove at 791 and 825.

Unitech - This is one of the most beaten out scrip 52 week High of 600 odd and low of 27 odd. Makes sense in buying and booking profits at 40 odd levels.

SBI - Inflation has cooled and if RBI takes some action in reducing the CRR or Repo Rate it will benefit and then makes sense to buy for short term.

ICICI - The same above reason apples and even if you go to see its is one of the most beeten out blue chip after DLF and Hindalco.

Sectors I am bullish on -

Infrastructure and Banking and later Metals.

All of these sectors have witnessed the worst hit ever so chances are there for these sectors to recover very fast.

Nifty Elliott Wave Count :: In last weekend post we plot major corrective wave count.. Today we plot last leg count in small time frame.. As per last post Cycle Double Zigzag may be finish near 2250 level.. From there Nifty and Sensex both start to move up.. We Plots here two options
(1) Intermediate Flat as A-B-C of B finish near 2500 level and C start to move up. For this wave count Nifty must be close above 2860.. And once close above 2860/2900 target of C leg in between 3350 to 3900..
(2) May be B leg start as Intermediate impulse 1-2-3-4-5 of 3 over and 4th still running as far as stay below 2860.. Target of 4th in between 2776 to 2860..
Now what to do.. First we book profit at higher level near our 4th wave target zone, and wait for conformation of C leg and again enter above 2860/2900…

Sell In Rumor Buy On News :: Stock market always reflect economy in 6 to 9 month advance.. Let’s see with proof.. We post here S & P 500 Jan 1974 to Oct 1975 chart. Now see S&P 500 made bottom (Low) at 2^nd Oct 1974 after that in 3^rd quarter US economy announced negative GDP growth.. But S & P 500 made higher bottom on 5^th Dec 1974.. And after that constantly two quarter 4^th and 1^st quarter of 1975 announced negative growth and stock market move up and up..!! Up to last phase of negative GDP announcement, Jul 1975… !!

Weekend,Its raining here in Bangalore had nothing constructive to do,
Thought let me ramble with FII selling we witnessed this year(2008) till now.

In 2008 top three months of wealth destruction till now are

January

June

October

October being the darkest month of the year till now.

January (OHLC)=6138,6356,4450,5171 A loss of 15%

June (OHLC)=4870,4906,4022,4025 A loss of 17%

October (OHLC)=3921,4000,2253,2905 A loss of 27%

Lets compare the FII selling in these 3 months

January FII sold=-17,226.90 (cr)

June FII sold =-10,577.70 (cr)

October FII sold=-14,248.60 (cr)

Now run your eye through the attached chart of nifty.

It clearly shows though the fall was steep traders/Investors were quite eager to buy
because by the time month ended more than half of fall was retraced (Traders were hopeful)

Come to June its calm compare to January but absolutely no retrace and the month ended
quite near to the monthly low.(Traders sold too not hopeful of rise) One thing to look for
though this being the lowest out of the three months comparing FII selling .Still it managed to shave off 17% off Nifty.

The October comes darkest of the three "mayhem" Bear salsa world over FII sold lesser than
compared to January but we witnessed Nifty being lighter by 27% .
Distress sale,Panic sale etc etc and what not.Long term investors sold there blue chips.
Sentiments negative to the core no one wanted to talk about stocks etc etc.

Then suddenly from no where we witnessed sharp and swift rally in October itself
From a low of 2250 to 2900 that's 650 points in a week, Of course on low volumes:)
Retail was quite scared to buy.

Nifty : resistance 2761-2827

Some trading ideas : Monday 24-11-2008
Note : do not short anything unless
Nifty fall below 2650



______________________________

______________________________

STOCK........ CLOSE.......STOP LOSS........ TARGET... WEEKLY
____________________________________________________________


SBI...........1124.........1104............1176-1228.....1220-1315

DLF............198...........197.............215-232.....252-305...

IVRCL..........131...........128.............139-147.....148-165...

Union Bank.....144...........143.............149-154.....159-174...

Bank Baroda....268...........264.............276-284.....289-310...

Kotak Bank.....309...........304.............322-335.....391-473...

RELIANCE......1124.........1104..............1176-1211....1220-1335

------------------------------------------------------------------

Note : weekly targets are conditional. You can read details in the economic revolution in which I have given trading idea at length.
Weekly targets are on survival of below rates:

SBI : 1148
RELIANCE : 1126
DLF : 216
IVRCL : 125
Union BK : 147
BOB : 270
Kotak BK : 333
________________________________

RCOM :
______


Close : 206
Target 222-233 stop loss 201
If close above 233 can test 261

________________________________

RPOWER
_______

Close : 104

Buy only above 106 with SL-104

Target-115-125

NOTE : TCS and INFOSYS give buy signal but it may fall to red during the week.Once touch-528-551 ( TCS ) faling below 494 it can give 472-437 levels

INFOSYS : Can touch 1226-1268 ihn between
faling below 1158 it sharply can test to 1116-1048 Zone.

Till market move up, you shall wait for upper levels to touch and then short once start falling from given resistance levels.

If You are smart trader with some TA knowledge, only than trade in TCS n INFOSYS. Else eye on my 7 stocks given above.

MKT NEWS

I like this set up because it's gonna screw up a whole buncha people. Illusion part 2 coming up! Careful!

Relief comes at last after 7 days of continuous fall. But now there is a funny situation at hand - during this fall, we have created so many resistances on the way up and it is difficult to imagine a clean climb back to 3200~ levels. We will take a look at the weekly chart and the usual sectoral comparison tomorrow.

Watch the top trend line resistance for the pullback rally (hopefully). The markets are looking like a troubled submarine at the bottom of the sea, trying to surface.

IOBK BSE Indian Overseas Bank Descending Continuation Triangle 63.45 10.00 - 21.00 Long-Term Bearish IOBK NSE Indian Overseas Bank Descending Continuation Triangle 63.90 11.00 - 21.00 Long-Term Bearish

Alert Criteria: Stocks (Any Indian Exchange); Price at least 5.00; Classic Patterns; Bearish; Daily Events; Pattern Duration at least 25 days.

Symbol Exchange Name Event Close at Event Target Price Range Opportunity Type ACRI BSE Acrysil India Ltd Downside Breakout 58.80 39.00 - 43.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish ANGA NSE ANG Auto Ltd Descending Continuation Triangle 33.00 14.00 - 18.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish BFER BSE Bharat Fertiliser Inds. Ltd. Downside Breakout 22.45 10.00 - 13.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish BHAN BSE Bhansali Engineering Polymers Ltd Continuation Diamond (Bearish) 9.00 6.50 - 7.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish HIND BSE Hind Industries Ltd Descending Continuation Triangle 11.25 5.25 - 6.50 Intermediate-Term Bearish IOBK BSE Indian Overseas Bank Descending Continuation Triangle 63.45 10.00 - 21.00 Long-Term Bearish IOBK NSE Indian Overseas Bank Descending Continuation Triangle 63.90 11.00 - 21.00 Long-Term Bearish KAJR NSE Kajaria Ceramics Ltd Descending Continuation Triangle 25.20 14.50 - 16.50 Intermediate-Term Bearish KPIT BSE KPIT Cummins Infosystems Ltd Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bearish) 26.35 11.00 - 14.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish NHIE NSE Nahar Industrial Enterprises Ltd Descending Continuation Triangle 28.05 16.00 - 19.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish NIRL BSE Nirlon Ltd Descending Continuation Triangle 21.10 8.00 - 11.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish PROC BSE Procter & Gamble Hygiene & Health Care Ltd Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bearish) 737.30 591.00 - 619.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish SBKL BSE Sundaram Brake Linings Ltd Descending Continuation Triangle 108.45 64.00 - 73.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish SLVR BSE Silverline Technologies Ltd Downside Breakout 6.98 4.50 - 5.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish SWAN BSE Swan Mills Ltd Symmetrical Continuation Triangle (Bearish) 36.65 1.00 - 8.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish TIIN BSE 3I Infotech Ltd Descending Continuation Triangle 34.35 13.00 - 17.00 Intermediate-Term Bearish TONP BSE Tonira Pharma Ltd Downside Breakout 9.50 5.90 - 6.70 Intermediate-Term Bearish TORP BSE Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd Downside Breakout 120.75 41.00 - 55.00 Long-Term Bearish

NEWSLETTER

Nifty :: Sensex finally hold last support 8340 and close above it,. Today we plot here more deep analysis and draw path of Nifty in coming days with all supports and resistance.. Watch carefully 2500 & 2450 level below it more weakness seems in coming days up to last low 2252. Below it Nifty turn down and find support within 2/3 day’s as we draw in red color.. Time wise Nifty move up from 2252 to 3240 in just seven days and still hold above 75% correction level after 10 day’s. And that’s why as per technical terms still we says mid term momentum up. Any deep correction give us buying opportunity for mid term prospective.. For 21st Nov. watch one level 2541, Above it momentum seems up below it down.. Resistance for up move at 2634/2680/2709/2732/2784.. Supports 2541/2

Sensex Technical View :
The drift in Sensex continues and has touched 8316 on the lower side which is just below the channel. As we had discussed yesterday in such a correction markets can also correct 80-85 %. So around 8250 would be a stoploss level or a trigger level to watchout for in next few sessions.
As shown in chart yesterday that markets could head towards 8300 -8500 zone in this drift.

The next big question is whether 8250-8500 will hold on for closing basis. With the time point of view check this chart we have seen a counter phase or bear rally last for 30-40 sessions or around 4-8 weeks. This pattern has been followed in previous two lows. A negation of such a pattern would lead to an uncalled situation which is not expected as of now.

Till we dont break above the upper trendline of the channel pressure would continue to remain on higher levels. The strategy yet remains same to react then to predict and keep patience with taking quick trades on either side.

Some of the calls in client recommendations :
Nifty 2900 call stop hit .
Chamble 37 odd stop 35.7 hit .
DLF 226 to 238.
Ibull real 103 to 109-113.
Hdfc bank 890 to 850 and hit 810 too.
Bharti 605 to 575.

Stocks to watchout for :
As said 2-3 days back HDFC ltd and HDFC Bank could be pivotals for any market move. These stocks broke Oct lows badly and were actually the most stable ones now. Still looking weak on charts unless they bounce back 10-15 %and sustain higher.

Bharti Airtel does 575 as expected. RCAp has come to 420 start SIPPING at 380 .

In a bounceback would expect pvt bankin , psu banks to bounce back sharply so traders with long bias shud keep a watch on these.

As of now many stocks are close to Oct lows and some have broken below. Technically none of the factors have turned positive yet and the approach now would be to buy on the way up maybe 10 % higher from lows but in comfort. So fresh stock trades would be initiated in the day.

weakness will be seen if nifty below 2535, and next support at 2451.

in case we open a gap down, and we cross 2535, nifty may blast up to 2556-2575 levels again.

overall view is still bearish, and nifty would see strong resistence around 2630 levels in next few trading sessions, i expect a good fall from there, so keep that level in mind :-)

The seven day war ends with a truce over 2525. Remember, it's only a cease fire and conflict can begin anytime again if talks fail! OK, I'm too tired now (I get up at 4 in the morn) to post anything further and wanna go and have coupla beers, dinner and go and hit the sac by 9.

US markets yesterday saw a worst hit Dow down below 7550 points.

Europe was down over 3%.

Asia has opened weak.

Expect a gap down to flat opening in Indian Markets.

The support for the Sensex is 8649-8393 and the resistance to the up move is at 8775-8870

Nifty: (2553) the support for the Nifty is at 2500-2464 and the resistance to the up move is at 2754-2860

Day trading ideas.

LNT

Buy above 710 for targets of 716 & 723

Sell below 702 for targets of 696 & 690

Praj Ind.

Buy above 54.25 for targets of 56.30 & 58.80

Sell below 51.75 for targets of 49.10 & 47.90

Unitech

Buy above 35.60 for targets of 36.90 & 38.70

Sell below 33.80 for targets of 32.50 & 30.70

Sell RCOM Target: 174,170

Sell ICICIBANK Target: 299,290

Sell DLF Target: 194,188

Sell UNITECH Target: 31, 29

Sell HDIL Target: 80, 75

Sell HDFCBANK Target: 780,765

After the Gap down, you get only small intra trading opportunities.

No reversal indications. Infact some stocks closed near their lows.

Based on the world market cues and the levels as per the price charts, position your trades.

A daily close above 2685 is a minimum requirement to stop the bears as of today.
Every 80 - 100 points intra rallies have been attracting selling. So buy near channel bottom and sell near the channel tops.(Or only sell near the channel tops & cover the shorts near the channel bottoms till the reversal sign appears.)

All cycle trends remain down.