Inspite of bullish global cues, Nifty got sold off at 2780, fell 150 points due to settlement liquidation.
Nifty closed below 5ema...sell on rises till it clears the channel top..
Last support for the bulls at 2630.
3240--2860 =380(1st dn)
2860-3160......(2nd up)
3160--2503 =657 (3rd dn)
2503--2790.....(4th up)
2784 - 380 = 2404(A likely target for 5th dn)
As the 3rd is already more than the 1st, 5th can be more than 380 also.
As we are in the 5th down, let us look for a possible bottom on Thursady(Settlement day) or Friday based on the world market cues. A rally past 2784 will cancel out this view and the uptrend may resume..
Today's gap up opening gets sold into and the Nifty closes in the red. You may want to experiment with a strategy known as "fading the gap" (Buy at the open on a gap down, and sell at the open on a gap up). This can be useful on days like this. Our markets are internally very weak and any gap ups due to external triggers such as the Citi bailout plan, are likely to get sold into. I tried to search a link but I'm in a hurry, so I'll leave this job to you. Google search --->> Fading the Gap
The Indian market opened on positive note but rally fizzle out as day progress and close in red zone. For coming session if nifty trade below 2630 it can test 2540-2580 zone. On the up side if nifty trade above 2710 it can test 2770 .
Nifty closed below 5ema...sell on rises till it clears the channel top..
Last support for the bulls at 2630.
3240--2860 =380(1st dn)
2860-3160......(2nd up)
3160--2503 =657 (3rd dn)
2503--2790.....(4th up)
2784 - 380 = 2404(A likely target for 5th dn)
As the 3rd is already more than the 1st, 5th can be more than 380 also.
As we are in the 5th down, let us look for a possible bottom on Thursady(Settlement day) or Friday based on the world market cues. A rally past 2784 will cancel out this view and the uptrend may resume..
Today's gap up opening gets sold into and the Nifty closes in the red. You may want to experiment with a strategy known as "fading the gap" (Buy at the open on a gap down, and sell at the open on a gap up). This can be useful on days like this. Our markets are internally very weak and any gap ups due to external triggers such as the Citi bailout plan, are likely to get sold into. I tried to search a link but I'm in a hurry, so I'll leave this job to you. Google search --->> Fading the Gap
The Indian market opened on positive note but rally fizzle out as day progress and close in red zone. For coming session if nifty trade below 2630 it can test 2540-2580 zone. On the up side if nifty trade above 2710 it can test 2770 .US marketes ended mixed.
Europe ended green.
Asia has opned mixed and I expect markets to open flat to negative.
Indian markets will witness a selling preasure very soon.
Be aware.
Levels to watch out for BSE Sensex are - Support at 8700 and 8450 and resistance for upmove at 9635 and 10200
Levels on NIFTY - Support at 2550 and resistance for upmove at 2865 and 3110
Day trading ideas.
HDIL
Buy above 77.90 for targets of 79 and 81
Sell below 74 for targets of 72 and 70
Unitech
Buy above 28.90 for targets of 29.90 and 32
Sell below 27.90 for targets of 27.10 and 26.10
Sesa Goa
Buy above 69 for targets of 72 and 73.90
Sell below 62 for targets of 60 and 58.50
Sell RELIANCE below 1090,.
Sell ICICIBANK below 330,
Sell DLF below 195,
Sell RELIANCE below 1090,.
Sell ICICIBANK below 330,
Sell DLF below 195,
We waited to short above 2800, but that never happened and nifty kept on falling.
for intraday, nifty will be weak below 2635, and another closing below 2655 may take nifty to 2541-2527 levels
only if trades above 2655 may go on to hit 2750 levels again.
The fear for “Longs” holding threatening the Bulls to hold despite the global good news due to the positive cues from the US. The markets are not enthused by the global cues because of delay in keeping the rate cut by the RBI and the Govt. is seriously busy with the election schedule posing a threat to Bulls.
The technicals were not violated due to this steep fall from a high of 2790 level to 2638 level. The steep fall push out those small investors who bought at lover levels and keep them away as this wild swings create tension. The informed individuals and HNIs, DIIs, MFs and the FIIs take the lower level to build their positions to average out and churn the portfolios to performing sectors from non performing sectors.
The concern is that the SBI trading below 1080 level and the Nifty trading below 2670-80 level. The Nifty low building is good but the pruning highs are a concern as the heavy weights turned bearish. The Bears are not applying the pressure but the Bulls are running away to accept the positions at higher level due the negative sentiment spread over the bourses. In case the Nifty crosses the resistance at 2693-97 level and closes above 2670 then the consolidation is on the buy side. The RIL has to cross the 1140 level and close above 1109-11 level, SBI has to cross the 1147 and close above 1120. The ONGC has to cross the 697 resistance and the Bharti shall trade above 640 levels to accept the bear pressure is over and the positions built at the lower level.
The technicals were not violated due to this steep fall from a high of 2790 level to 2638 level. The steep fall push out those small investors who bought at lover levels and keep them away as this wild swings create tension. The informed individuals and HNIs, DIIs, MFs and the FIIs take the lower level to build their positions to average out and churn the portfolios to performing sectors from non performing sectors.
The concern is that the SBI trading below 1080 level and the Nifty trading below 2670-80 level. The Nifty low building is good but the pruning highs are a concern as the heavy weights turned bearish. The Bears are not applying the pressure but the Bulls are running away to accept the positions at higher level due the negative sentiment spread over the bourses. In case the Nifty crosses the resistance at 2693-97 level and closes above 2670 then the consolidation is on the buy side. The RIL has to cross the 1140 level and close above 1109-11 level, SBI has to cross the 1147 and close above 1120. The ONGC has to cross the 697 resistance and the Bharti shall trade above 640 levels to accept the bear pressure is over and the positions built at the lower level.
Use it learn & Learn to make money and convey the same to others.
Sensex Technical View :
Sensex almost kissed the upper end of the flag and has turned back to close in the red. The drift in the down flag continues with no clear direction. The simplest thing to do now would be to wait for a breakout above 9300-9500 or a dip below 8300 -8200 to take a fresh view in short term.
Till then all the trades on the index or out of the index should be for intra-day or extreme short term be it long or short.
Technically i had expected a bottoming out arnd 8 or 13th month zone. we are through 8-9 mths already and next 3-4 mths would be the real challenge for the Sensex and investors/traders with gr8 intermediate opportunities !... So best of luck to all as the real test is here it seems...
Index Stocks and observations :
None of the large caps have actually given a fresh buy or a sell signal with confirmation and are poised crucially. HDFC Bank and SBI charts have been shown. Reliance inds 1000 -1030 is crucial. Tata Steel is almost near to oct low or abt to break it. The next couple of weeks would decide whether these stocks give a clear signal.
Stocks to watchout for :
Of the stocks suggested for bottom watch Praj , Unitech, Aditya Birla Nuvo , Unitech gave small bounces whereas Punj Lloyd has broken the low.
Punj lloyd if sustains below 140s could well touch 120 zone.
NALCO above 193 could see some move.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
The last few weeks since October whosoever i meet on the street remains very very bearish on markets , businesses etc. But one thing which has amazed me is the words , belief are not matching their actions. Lot many investors are speaking gloomiest words but not selling but in cases are actually adding to a junk portfolio. Although restructuring is what is the best thing to do on rallies.
Just a dummy conversation would clear the scenario lot many investors are faced with.
Wise mkt -men: Where do u think is the Sensex headed.
Investor : Ah ye to 6k-8k ho jaayega aur wahi rahega.
Wise mkt-men : So what are u gonna do or wat did u do.
Investor : Nothing just watching my portfolio sink to 30 % value. I no more have the guts to buy.!!!
Wise mkt-men : The guts are needed to sell .... Did u sell at 17k , 16k , 14k .Although u were bearish all through and u still are.
Investor : Ab kya karu itne loss me kaise bechoo ...
Wise mkt-men : All u can do is better have guts next time around to buy !!! as the next gut -challenge is coming in next 3-4 mths which will not be about selling !!!.
Lay Long term investors sell in panic not in loss.....
SBI :
If we see in the chart the levels of 960-1000 is an important technical level with many parameters like trendlines , channels , fibonacci.
The stock needs to climb back frm closer to 1000 levels in coming weeks or in a breakdown below 960 could see 840-700 in some panic sell.
HDFC Bank :
800 zone is a very important technical level for the stock from different parameters like prev supports , fibo levels, patterns etc.
The stock needs to cover above 850 zone sooner or in a breakdown could also see 650 zones.
The above two charts are being just looked through a technical point of view . Both are in crucial stages. The above two stocks could be pivotals for the next move for Sensex which is either crossing 8300 or 9300.
Sensex almost kissed the upper end of the flag and has turned back to close in the red. The drift in the down flag continues with no clear direction. The simplest thing to do now would be to wait for a breakout above 9300-9500 or a dip below 8300 -8200 to take a fresh view in short term.
Till then all the trades on the index or out of the index should be for intra-day or extreme short term be it long or short.
Technically i had expected a bottoming out arnd 8 or 13th month zone. we are through 8-9 mths already and next 3-4 mths would be the real challenge for the Sensex and investors/traders with gr8 intermediate opportunities !... So best of luck to all as the real test is here it seems...
Index Stocks and observations :
None of the large caps have actually given a fresh buy or a sell signal with confirmation and are poised crucially. HDFC Bank and SBI charts have been shown. Reliance inds 1000 -1030 is crucial. Tata Steel is almost near to oct low or abt to break it. The next couple of weeks would decide whether these stocks give a clear signal.
Stocks to watchout for :
Of the stocks suggested for bottom watch Praj , Unitech, Aditya Birla Nuvo , Unitech gave small bounces whereas Punj Lloyd has broken the low.
Punj lloyd if sustains below 140s could well touch 120 zone.
NALCO above 193 could see some move.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
The last few weeks since October whosoever i meet on the street remains very very bearish on markets , businesses etc. But one thing which has amazed me is the words , belief are not matching their actions. Lot many investors are speaking gloomiest words but not selling but in cases are actually adding to a junk portfolio. Although restructuring is what is the best thing to do on rallies.
Just a dummy conversation would clear the scenario lot many investors are faced with.
Wise mkt -men: Where do u think is the Sensex headed.
Investor : Ah ye to 6k-8k ho jaayega aur wahi rahega.
Wise mkt-men : So what are u gonna do or wat did u do.
Investor : Nothing just watching my portfolio sink to 30 % value. I no more have the guts to buy.!!!
Wise mkt-men : The guts are needed to sell .... Did u sell at 17k , 16k , 14k .Although u were bearish all through and u still are.
Investor : Ab kya karu itne loss me kaise bechoo ...
Wise mkt-men : All u can do is better have guts next time around to buy !!! as the next gut -challenge is coming in next 3-4 mths which will not be about selling !!!.
Lay Long term investors sell in panic not in loss.....
SBI :If we see in the chart the levels of 960-1000 is an important technical level with many parameters like trendlines , channels , fibonacci.
The stock needs to climb back frm closer to 1000 levels in coming weeks or in a breakdown below 960 could see 840-700 in some panic sell.
HDFC Bank :800 zone is a very important technical level for the stock from different parameters like prev supports , fibo levels, patterns etc.
The stock needs to cover above 850 zone sooner or in a breakdown could also see 650 zones.
The above two charts are being just looked through a technical point of view . Both are in crucial stages. The above two stocks could be pivotals for the next move for Sensex which is either crossing 8300 or 9300.
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