NEWSLETTER

Axit D Shah Hello Friends,

Profit booking was the key today as we have updated in our last post on this web. Gloabal cues helped the markets to open gap down. Metals & Banking stocks were highly beaten down. Also many Fridays Midcap & Small Cap top gainers lost the battle & were highly beaten. ADAG stocks which were on Fire on Friday were in control by the Fire Brigade people. Its has been heard that many leading Fii's were on spree of Profit booking ( may be they have heard our Voice of Profit Booking in our last post on our website ).


Tomorrow 31 March 2009 last day of Financial Year 2008-2009, on this day we may see some value buying at lower levels OR Dead Cat bounce from local Funds to book the year end NAV's. Stocks which Local Funds have large holdings can be the Star of the Day. Tomorrow the JOKER can be Reliance industries, lets check what Charts tel about Ril :


RIL Intra day Chart :




RIL : EOD Chart :




RIL have found supports on daily charts around 1490 - 1500 & bounced back sharply from that levels. The same buying at lower levels in last hour of trade was seen on Intra day charts along with huge volumes. So RIL may be the Key or Joker for the day.

NifTiee Intra day Levels:
Close 2978
Supports : 2950 / 2929 / 2910
Resistances : 2990 / 3030 / 3080

Azad
RELIANCE : (1516.45)

Buy Above 1518 target 1-1536, target 2-1556, target 3-1599, stop loss 1505
Sell Below 1510 target 1-1495, target 2-1475, target 3-1414, stop loss 1518

RELCAPITAL : (338.25)

Buy Above 346 target 1-358, target 2-382, stop loss 338
Sell Below 341 target 1-326, target 2-315, stop loss 348

RELINFRA : (502.85)

Buy Above 520 target 1-532, target 2-539, stop loss 510
Sell Below 510 target 1-493, target 2-481, target 3-460, stop loss 520

ABAN : (383.05)

Buy Above 398 target 1-419, target 2-453, stop loss 374
Sell Below 374 target 1-360, target 2-340, target 3-316, stop loss 398

AXIS BANK : (397)

Buy Above 406 target 1-420, target 2-444, stop loss 381
Sell Below 381 target 1-368, target 2-341, stop loss 397

ICICI BANK : (338.10)

Buy Above 350 target 1-369, target 2-392, stop loss 340
Sell Below 345 target 1-325, target 2-307, stop loss 355

SBI : (1022.35)

Buy Above 1052 target 1-1089, target 2-1156, stop loss 1012
Sell Below 1012 target 1-984, target 2-946, target 3-892, stop loss 1030

STERLITE : (348.70)

Buy Above 350 target 1-368, target 2-390, stop loss 336
Sell Below 336 target 1-309, target 2-290, stop loss 350

ONGC : (782.45)

Buy Above 788 target 1-805, target 2-820, stop loss 775
Sell Below 780 target 1-764, target 2-746, target 3-730, stop loss 792

MCDOWELL-N : (646.25)

Buy Above 658 target 1-673, target 2-717, stop loss 645
Sell Below 645 target 1-629, target 2-603, stop loss 658

Sensex : (9568.14) Today Sensex face resistance at 9713, if cross 9713 then goes up to 9905 and 10242. Sensex find support at 9375, if break 9375 then fall up to 9183 and 8846.

Nifty : (2978.15) Today Nifty face resistance at 3017, if cross 3017 then goes up to 3073 and 3167. Nifty find support at 2922, if 2922 break then fall up to 2867 and 2807.

Nifty April Futures closed at 2988.10 (Rs 9.95 Premium) with a turnover of Rs 13028.02 crores.Sheds 2022150 shares (-5.43%) in open interest bringing down the open interest to 35223850 shares.

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on gap-down and traded red territory through out the session and close in deep red zone .We had indicate about negative divergences on hourly chart and correction came today.For coming session trading below 2970 it will test 2930-2896 .On other side trading above 3009 it can test 3027-3043 levels .

(Nifty Bhaloo)

RAO

CAF, Siemens, Faiveley among key suppliers.

---

"We will procure eight trains, each comprising six coaches, from CAF. The deliveries will start from January 2010. All the coaches will be manufactured in CAF's factories in Spain."

---

Mamuni Das

New Delhi, March 29 Reliance Infrastructure, an ADAG company, has finalised most of its contracts for the metro rail link between Delhi international airport and city centre.

The Delhi Airport Metro Express Pvt Ltd (DAMEPL) — a special purpose vehicle where Reliance Infrastructure has a 95 per cent equity stake and Spanish firm CAF owns the rest — has won the 30-year concession to design, build, finance, operate and maintain the 22.7 km rail link. The facility will be transferred back to DMRC at the end of the concession period.

ORDERS

The company will get the coaches, which are in standard gauge, from Spanish rolling stock firm CAF, which also has an equity stake in the project.

"We will procure eight trains, each comprising six coaches, from CAF. The deliveries will start from January 2010. All the coaches will be manufactured in CAF's factories in Spain," a top Reliance Infra official in charge of the metro projects told Business Line. CAF is responsible for the maintenance of coaches for seven years.

The equipment for signalling, power supply and baggage handling will be sourced from Siemens, Germany and its Indian subsidiary.

Orders for the platform screens have been placed with Faiveley; automatic fare collection machines will be sourced from the Spanish firm, Indra; ETA will supply the tunnel ventilation equipment; Kone will supply the lifts and Schindler will supply the escalators, and check-in equipment. Alcatel will provide the communication equipment such as fibre optics, passenger information system, CCTV and master-clock. He declined to share details on the value and size of orders.

FINANCIAL CLOSURE The company recently signed the financing agreements for long-term loans from financial institutions and a sanction of around Rs 2,500 crore against a total debt requirement of Rs 2,020 crore has been achieved, Mr K.P. Maheshwari, Project Director, had stated in a release.

For DAMEPL, the cost of funds is 225 basis points below the Axis Bank's prime lending rate. The funds have a door-to-door tenor of 17.5 years. "We will have a 14.5 year repayment period with a ballooning repayment schedule. It is staggered in such a way that the repayment increases towards the end of the period," said the official.

The transaction led by Axis Bank (Rs 330 crore), also had subscribers such as India Infrastructure Finance Company (UK) Ltd ($54 million), Bank of India (Rs 200 crore), Canara Bank (Rs 200 crore), Central Bank of India (Rs 200 crore), Andhra Bank (Rs 100 crore), Allahabad Bank (Rs 150 crore), Dena Bank (Rs 200 crore), Punjab and Sind Bank (Rs 150 crore), and UCO Bank (Rs 225.5 crore).

For DAMEPL, the project will entail an investment of Rs 2,885 crore with debt-equity ratio of 70:30. The metro rail link has to be operational by July 2010, before the Commonwealth Games

(Ilango)

The -ve div in the "OB" area got confirmed by a break below 3070 at the open and Nifty kept sliding down and stopped just at the channel bottom.
After the weekly's continued uptrend, the daily has turned down which can take it down upto 2915 or 2860 area with brief bounces and rallies. The more time it takes to trade these points will point to a correction but a quicker fall will put a question mark on this uptrend. So trade light on these points till the correction shows +ve div or a breakdown occurs below 2860.

(SVShah)

Daily Market Outlook: 31 March 2009

After moving upwards for five consecutive trading sessions, as predicted on last Friday Indian equity markets lost steam and took a nosedive to close in negative zone. It was the US market that triggered the fall as the US government task force rejected the viability plans of General Motors and Chrysler. Asian markets also tumbled. Further the weak opening of European markets added to the woes. While Sensex shaded 480 points to close at 9568, Nifty shaded 130.50 points to close at 2978. Financial heavyweights like SBI, ICICI and HDFC were amongst the biggest losers as they erased almost all their last 4 days gains in a single session. Some positive stock last day that remain positive in midcaps are Opto Circuit, S.Kumar’s, ICSA, KSK, Chambal Fert, NFCL, Thermax and Bombay Dyeing.

On the sectoral front, except consumer durables, all other sectoral indices closed in the red. Bankex, metals and realty were the major culprits with steep. While banking sector suffered from renewed concern, metal lost the plot on account of expected decline in demand. Interestingly, major selling was seen in Sensex based counters rather than the madcap and small cap counters. Market breadth was negative with 1471 declines and 904 advances. Certain stocks that are looking positive are ChambalFert (above 43), NFCL (above 19), HPCL (above 265), EKC and Financial Tech. Auto stocks could also be bought as they still retain the positive bias.

NIFTY (2978.15)

Support : 2945 / 2920 / 2890 / 2865 / 2840

Resistance : 3040 / 3065 / 3090 / 3105 / 3140

SENSEX

Support : 9425 / 9335 / 9285

Resistance : 9805 / 9900 / 10045

NIFTY FUT (2988)

Support : 2955 / 2915 / 2860

Resistance : 3015 / 3045 / 3105

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI down 5.43% with flat volumes indicating not only unwinding of long positions but forming of fresh short positions too.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

On Tuesday,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Short Below 2980,Sl Abv 3000,Tgt 2920-2870,

Sustain Above 3000,Buy with Sl Below 2980,Tgt 3070-3120.

POSITIONAL : Buy 50%NIFTY 2970 & other 50% 2940,Sl 2915,Tgt 3100

Buy OPTOCIRCUITS Above 85

Buy CHAMBALFERT Above 43

Buy SUNPHARMA Above 1110

Buy BRFL Above 145,Tgt 150/55,Sl 143

Buy TATAELEXSI Above 80,Tgt 84-86-92,Sl 79

Buy MARUTI Above 760,Tgt 775-790-830,Sl 740

Sell RELCAPITAL Below 335

Sell NTPC Below 185,Tgt 180/75/70,Sl 190

Sell SBIN(1022),Tgt 1010/1000/990,Sl Above 1040

Sell CIPLA Below 215,Tgt 210-205-195,Sl 220

Sell GAIL Below 235,Tgt 225-220-210,Sl 240

Sell M&M Below 370,Tgt 360-350-330,Sl 380

Sell WIPRO Below 240,Tgt 235-230-220,Sl 245

Buy TVSMOTORS April Above 22/23,Sl 21.4,Tgt 22.85/23.1/23.5/23.8/24 (Lot Size : 11800)

BHEL (1474) : Sell 1490/1500,Sl 1515,Tgt 1460/50/40/35

HDFCBK (945) : Sell 965/55,Sl 980,Tgt 940/30/20/10

RIL(1516) : Sell 1530/20,Sl 1540,Tgt 1495/80/50

Sell RPOWER April@ 103/01,Sl 104,Tgt 100/99.6/98.6/97.5/96.6/95.7/94.6/93.8 (Lot Size : 2000)

World Markets - Astrologically

Crude Oil / Gold / Silver

CRUDEOIL likely to make 1 more attempt for rise between 31st and 02nd April but in totality Crude Oil is looking weak till 07th April 2009. 2 Weekly close above US$ 51/ barrel will set higher targets of $67-$69 which will be achieved in coming weeks. Regarding Gold and Silver, we have already communicated 2-3 weeks back that till 25th March, both these metals will remain under pressure despite occasional minor rallies. Both GOLD and SILVER will try to stage come back early this week but after 31st March both Silver and Gold will turn weak for next 7-10 Days.

US Dollar/ Indian Rupee ( USDINR)
Astrologically, Indian Rupee may remain strong against US Dollar till 31st March but after that volatility can be expected in which US Dollar will be slightly stronger against Indian Rupee.

US Markets
Astrologically, Both Nasdaq and Dow Jones are likely to bounce back after initial weakness on 30th March but most indicators favour decline on 01st April and weakness may continue for 1-2 Days. Despite weekly movements on both sides, US Markets are likely to be positive till 8th-10th of April despite occasional declines and rallies.

S S Cheema

Okay guys (and gals ofcourse) I have some very important job to do tomorrow – that I have not done so far ever. Wify being out of the town – I have to go and pick my results of my kidoos from the school. To be on the safer side – I have prepared myself well. I have taken time to ask my kids the class and section so that I reach the right place and ask the results from the right teachers. Already having jitters and I know that the night will turn out to be as awful. I am sure no one will recognise me as their father as this is the first time. How I miss my wify. Okay here goes another round of practice to pick up results of my kidoos – straight face, don’t look bewildered, try to remain calm, the hand that shakes the most should remain in the pocket and ask for the class… walk confidently, smile at the teacher and don’t look at the report card in front of the teacher lest I do or say some thing stupid or act smart.

Well here I am – ready to give you another dose of technicals’. The day today was like that should have been accepted after a virtually nonstop rally of the markets for 11 straight days of rally. The force down was a kind of anticipated and everyone seems to have rushed for taking home the profits. Typical – of what was expected when the run down was expected to start. No one really knows for sure whether this will turn out to be a “Sucker's rally” – so no one is really taking a chance. Please do digest it that we have fallen on seemingly a lower volume. I mean today the volumes have been 117% of the last 50 day average. We have been clocking almost 150% last few days. Frankly even if we just set aside these and see the global cues we will get another good observation. We have fallen exactly in line with the global cues we got from the Asia. Over the week end I had already written that the US closed weak. The Asia also too the cues and opened weak – that became a stampede for the profits to be taken home rally and closed the Asian Indices 4% lower. Nikkei ended 4.53% in red, Hang Seng was down 4.7% and Strait Times down 4.15%. We closed 4.2% down on nifty and that is in line with the Asian Markets. The Europe is still open and presently in red. Past the mid session we see them around 3% down with no chance so far to move into red. FTSE is down 2.35%, Dax is down 3.5% and CAC is down 3.07%. US too has opened and has started the day firmly in red. Dow down 2.73%, Nasdaq down 2.77% in red and S&P down 2.76% in red. Too long a period for US to remain open so I will not try to predict where it will close but closing red is a fair bet especially with the news flow coming regarding the GM and blah blah…

Coming to our candles, we see a tall black candle that has really had the audacity of eating away 2 days of gains in a go. The Bollinger bands too have widened quite a bit. I will say again at the cost or repetition that We are still in the Narrow trading range and there has been no break out. The 5 EMA is trying to go below the 100 EMA and that would signal end of the road up for the short term. 20 EMA had just about crossed over the 50 EMA two days back and is still above it. The volumes are lower as I mentioned earlier. ADX trying to look down. MACD is still bullish but the divergence has reduced. The RSI has moved down from the overbought position and looks down – some would actually use this indication to sell and hold shorts. Slow Stochastic red line has come below the 80 line but the %D line is still in the overbought zone. Once again some would use this condition to sell and wait with the shorts. TRIX is still looking up and is around the highest we have seen in this bear markets so expect it to retract down taking the markets alongwith.

Let us see the Pivot data before I pack up and call it a day…

R3 3258 against 3191 yesterday
R2 3164
R1 3071
Pivot 3016 against 3095 yesterday
S1 2923
S2 2868
S3 2775 against 2999 yesterday
Projected High Range 3044 to 3118
Projected Low Range 3102 to 3028
Fib Projected High 3150
Fib Projected Low 2921

Next inevitable question is where do we go from here. I will lay it all bare for you to pick and choose.

1. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at 2903 and 50% Fibonacci retracement is at 2840. So in the coming week we should see the markets touching atleast these points.
2. The middle of Bollinger band is around the 2725. That can be the next place where we stop.
3. Going purely by the trading range – 2611 should be the lowest point if we do not make fresh lows.

So very frankly looks like we are going down for some time. Best of luck to all who have been short – and I think you will have some more time before you should square off your positions.

(ambardekarsuchita@gmail.com)

photo courtsey-The punkass ,flicker

"The Big Takeover" by Matt Taibbi is probably the best article written to date explaining the financial crisis and how we got to where we are now.

Taibbi's necessarily lengthy article explains the problems, names the "poipetrators" , and exposes all of the conflicts of interest--- absolutely a must read.

AIG, Goldman Sachs, and J. P. Morgan turn out to be the major players causing perhaps the greatest financial crisis in modern history--- even if the pain is unlikely to get near Great Depression proportions, the dollar losses to individual investors have certainly gone as far.

JPM was the brewmeister of the CDO, a vat full of various kinds of income securities, determined to be less risky because the income on most would almost certainly keep flowing--- kind of like the once popular junk bond fund that Wall Street insisted was not risky at all because of the great diversification.

A few years later, the Captains of the Universe created a breed of high yield foreign government bonds where the interest was guaranteed but not the principal.

(Read that again.)

Certainly, the CDO product should have been looked over thoroughly by all the normal scam detectors and regulators. But, what's that? Senator Phil Gramm, and his cronies on both sides of the aisle, had just OK'd the demise of the depression era regulations that prohibited the combination of Insurance Companies, Banks, and Investment Banks. Let the games begin.

Later on, the bewigged ones would loosen bank-lending rules, institute others that value mortgages as if they were common stocks, eliminate the only firewall protecting share owners from predatory short-sellers, and deem that derivatives were not something that could be regulated by any existing entity. Basically, Taibbi rightly accuses Wall Street firms of finding loopholes in rules and regulations, and squeezing creative products through the cracks in the law for their own benefit. Even in areas where they are under SEC supervision, over paid corporate lawyers and mathematicians are faster on their feet than your average government employee.

AIG, and more specifically, its AIG Financial Products Unit was responsible for making the ridiculously risky CDO (Collateralized Debt Obligation) the subject of the quasi insurance gambling devices known as Credit Default Swaps, or CDS--- a CD with a capital S.

(The AIGFP was headed by Joseph Cassano, allegedly a student of Michael Milken.)

Taibbi explains how AIG used these Certificates of Doom as gambling chips to create a multi-level risk betting industry, with no backing other than the idea that nothing would ever cause the housing bubble to pop. The CDS vehicle allowed the CDO industry to multiply because all of the risk was being assumed by AIG. But, and this particular "but" should be in 72-point type, they insured the same loss multiple times without ever having the reserves on hand to cover any of the potential losses. The house-of-cards on the Hudson is built on a shared and intertwined foundation. Paulson's Goldman Sachs, for example, was AIG's biggest whale.The final straw was how AIG got itself out from under the regulatory eye by fraudulently arranging for supervision by the OTS (Office of Thrift Supervision) , a regulatory entity with only one insurance specialist on its entire staff. The OTS, it seems, never examined AIG, ever.

The article goes on to dig deeply into the bailouts; the Paulson, Geitner, and Liddy interrelationships, and more. But it reverberates the message voiced years ago in the first edition of "The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want You to Read".

The arrogance of the financial institutions, the mad scientists they employ to manipulate the rules and rule makers, and the Emperor's New Clothes (trust me they're safe) marketing tactics they employ really do need to be regulated--- by the government, sure; by corporate boards of directors, absolutely.In a Working Capital Model world, there would be no financial crisis.

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Some observations

-- The doji candle on the daily charts has been followed by a bear candle and completes the evening star formation for near term which suggests an extreme short term trend reversal.

-- From the fractal pattern the next move i.e dip and bounce becomes the most important thing to look for -- CHART

-- If we consider 10127 is a short term top and close to the 10200-10500 wall zone then we should see a retracement of 38/50/61% of the pullback from 8047. These levels come to 9320/9080/8840 roughly. Such a move should not go below the 61% level ideally. Giving a margin below that we would watch 8700 as a level as a trend decider for next couple of months.

-- The triangle pattern and time analysis pattern are no more into play as min tgts of 8300/7700 were not fully achieved and the time period of March end is over. Now we need to watch for the upside breakout if it has to happen above 10500.

-- If we go above 10500-10630 on closing basis then it would signal a turnaround and may confirm a bottom formation at 8k levels and we should see a full 38/50/61% retracement of the entire move from 21k -8k !!!!!!!! CHART HeRE.

-- The first indicator of bull strength is an upmove which is higher then previous high and is achieved in lesser time period. We did see this indication in the move of 9700 to 8047 in arnd 15-17 sessions was covered in less then 12 sessions ( 8047 -10127 ).

-- Now similarly if we take the major leg 10470 ( this was our time analysis top ) has taken around 40 odd sessions to reach 8047. So to get out of the bear pressure the index needs to move beyond 10470 by May 1st week. This if achieved then we would confirm the bottom of 8k is in place and may remain for a very long time to come.

Stocks to watchout for :

Bharat forge only triggers above 98 and shoots to 107 still looking good. ACC guj ambuja on watch. SCI and Ge shipping still good for short term.

ACC

The stock is making the second attempt to crosss 200 dema. If crosses 590 expect the stock to touch 650+ in short to medium term.

Areva Tnd

Good volumes after consolidation can be bought on dips to 184 with a stop of 177 for short term tgt of 198-207

BEML

The bottoming out process seems to be over for the stock and a move beyond 390 would imply a move to 420-460 levels in extreme short term. Low vols stock so position accordingly.

(Denarii)

Head is messed up from to much crap. The above Big Mouth Stocks would have worked well from the get go.

-

The numbers:

Stocks: gross -18 net -26 shares 1600

Stock Futures: none

Forex: none

SantyAs discussed in previous post, today Nifty dropped 4.2%, hitting SELL target from 3050 to 2980. Recent daily uptrend can see a 38.2% fibo retracement level at 2904/2900. So for tomorrow, wait for small retracement and SELL at 3000 (with down trend confirmation) with stop loss at 3020 for target at 2950/2930. In the case of choppy session, try to avoid any new position and wait for a better trend.

MY CHART

Nifty :: We clearly indicate such kind of situation in our Friday post… Required healthy correction in extreme stretch overbought position. And it is.. Today Nifty made an Engulfing Bear Candle pattern.. Bearish during up move or near strong resistance.. Still mid term up move chart pattern intact up to 2760/2750.. Multiple support at lower level from 2864 to 2801.. Avoid selling at low or in gap down opening.. Our strategy for 31^st March Sell at high (S.L 3005) Buy on deep (S.L 2796/2750).. Resistance for up move at 3000/3005/3055/3097.. Supports at 2900/2864/2850/2844/2832/2825/2801/2796…

(Mika)

Nice small commodity sell off or should I say correction (called it at 55 $ top) so, I take my credits because it was mostly US Steel, Joyg Mining etc. commodity stocks which sold off during monday "sell" session.

Perhaps it would be time for B upwave again, pretty much in every product including SPX, EurJpy and EurUsd. I don´t think we´re done yet, but likely B wave ZigZag ahead before C wave down comes. In most cases B wave can come pretty complex which takes time, so rest of the week might not be so exiting as monday was, at least for a few next days.

B wave comes most often 50 - 78.6% of wave A size. Perhaps 50% most often case. (in theory it can rarely be 110% from wave A with time & price).

I opened Eur-Usd long position from Asian market hours at 1.3190 and will I´ll leave it run now based for that oil chart plus inverse HS (bullish) pattern in Eur-Usd in 5 minute chart, leaving it ran with extreme tight stoploss at 1.3148.

It looks it broke now 1.3200 critical fib area without no problems. Be carefull with SPX 795-800 area - B wave might end there tomorrow, so, this wave is not a lot of fun and we do have quote a lot very sizy bear flags & pennants available in this market with daily signals, in fact so many of them that I hope my "final tsunami" will not come earlier as I thought, but I don´t think so, those diagonals looks very much as A waves also, meaning B wave corrective down.

1.3200 - 1.3220 tomorrow for european market hours as backtest could offer long setup for Eur-Usd, it´s more than likely monday bottom will be re-tested slightly above. 1.3213 is 50% from current setup because while writing this eur-usd ran allready to 1.3250 level. In fact we need to run much higher to get room to drop again for that smaller C oil wave also - at least my eur-usd work tells that for me in EW terms.

Btw. I updated some of those weekend charts later and will do more of them, individual equites charts by editing that same post, keeping them at the same place.

news

RAO

MUMBAI: Out of 35 construction companies, those with a market capitalization of less than Rs 1,000 crore outperformed their larger counterparts in the fortnight to March The total market capitalization of the seven large cap companies—Rs 57,275.52 crore as on March 26—has risen by 17% since March 9. On the other hand, the market cap of mid cap companies—the remaining 28 companies—has grown 21% in the same period to Rs 6391.81 crore. The Sensex rose by 20% in the same period.

Large cap companies include Larsen and Toubro, Punj Lloyd, Jaiprakash Associates, IRB Infrastructure , IVRCL Infrastructure, Nagarjuna Construction and Era Infra Engineering while the

rest lie in the mid and small cap categories.

One of the reasons for the outperformance of the mid cap companies, is that most in the list of remaining 28—namely, Hindustan Construction, Patel Engineering, Simplex Infrastructures, Gammon India, Consolidated Construction, Sadbhav Engineering, BL Kashyap & Sons, Ahluwalia Contracts, Madhucon Projects and Subhash Projects—have seen huge bargain buying in the last few trading sessions. These are the companies, which were earlier in the large cap space in the same period last year but were pounded heavily as they were in the lower end among their larger players.

For example, HCC, Patel and Gammon had a market capitalization in excess of Rs 3000 crore on March 23, 2008 but now they quote below Rs 1000 crore. This has led to some value buying as they are up by around 20% since March 9.

Construction companies' performance on bourses
Company name	Current price	% change since March 9
Large caps (Top 5)
Larsen & Toubro	651	15.9
Jaiprakash Associates	85	29.8
IRB Infra	82	-5.5
Punj Lloyd	83	19.9
IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects	128	16.5
Total	57275.5	17
Others (Top 5)
Hindustan Construction Co	38	29.3
Patel Engineering	128	20.8
Simplex Infrastructures	142	35.8
Gammon India	63	24.9
Noida Toll Bridge Co.	24	18.2
Total	6391.8	21
Source: BSE prices

(Ilango)

This is one of the market favourite but fell from a high of 5400 to 220 due to market sentiment.It shows strong reversal on a completed wave structure with +ve div appearing in daily & weekly charts. Volume pattern suggests a continuation of uptrend towards 512 + in the short term and 825 + in the medium term...Corrections if any may be restricted to 400 for Monday and may change subsequently as per price behaviour.SL for longs should be 345.The rising channel support comes at 375. Exit on this channel break..

Let me thank "Sweety" for bringing my attention to this stock as it reinforces my EW of index & other stocks.I was also able to develop a quick file for this stock which could be duplicated for studying other stocks.

(Ilango)

Nifty gains spectacularly in its third week of uptrend. "OB" with -ve div will get corrected with intra moves and may be for a couple of days in the coming week but the weekly gains will continue. Rotational stock buying is being seen. Last two previous tops at 3147 and 3241 will be scaled soon.
Trade the channels and use the pivot points for some guidance.
As we are trading below the 200DMA, I have also posted a bearish scenario at the bottom.

For Monday, if 3125 is not crossed in the opening hour & 3095/3070 is broken, a correction may set in till 3010-2925 area. If market moves past 3125, it may head towards 3147 +.....
Would the markets listen to saner voice to take a couple of days break to journey up comfortably..??? Market is always crazy..and you got to be crazy to deal with it..No saner approach will help.

(Rajesh Joshi)

Notables Observes:

• On 28th February Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd. was incorporated as a Public Limited Company under the Companies Act, 1956. The company has been set up to take over the management, control and operation of Delhi Telephone District (Excluding public telegraph service) and Mumbai Telephone District of the Department of Telecommunications and to plan, establish, develop, provide, operate and maintain all types of telecommunication services including Telephone, telex, wireless, data communication, telematic and other like forms of communication.
• One of the important objectives of the company is to raise the necessary finance to meet its own developmental needs and also that of the telecommunications board of the Department of Telecommunication.

The Main objectives and aims of Nigam are as follows:

1. To upgrade the quality of telecom services
2. To expand telecom
3. To raise necessary financial resources
4. To provide new telecommunication services, particularly needed by the business community and public administration such as Cellular Mobile Radio Telephone, Radio Paging, Fascimile Videotex, Teletex, Electronic Mail etc.
5. To invest in Human Resource Development
6. To organise and dovetail the training programmes

Share Holding patern :

• Promoter : 56.25 %
• Public : 35.30 %

Financial Highlights :

• Net Profit / (Loss) of Rs. 58.27 Crore for the quarter ending on 31-DEC-2008 against Rs. 91.86 lacs for the quarter ending on 30-SEP-200Crore8.
• Net Sales of Rs. 1132.26 Crore for quarter ending on 31-DEC-2008 against Rs. 1204.92 Crores for the quarter ending on 30-SEP-2008.
• Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd (MTNL) has informed BSE that MTNL has on March 27, 2009 received refund of Rs 516.18 crores from Income Tax Department pursuant to the orders of Income Tax Appellate Tribunal for the Assessment years 2001-02 & 2003-04 with respect to the issue of License Fee and 80IA deduction.

Technical Overview :

The stock On Weekly Chart has given a "Inverted Head & Shoulder" breakout with huge volumes, indicating the trend reversal and beginning of a uptrend. The stock is recomended to buy at cmp Rs 71.85

Support Levels :

• Support 1 : 68
• Support 2 : 65

Stop Loss : 59 on closing basis.

Targets :

• Target 1 : 82
• Target 2 : 90
• Target 3 : 100
• Target 4 : 115

Period : 5 to 6 months.

ss

This weekly chart of Nifty shows a 50 week average. You can see several instances of mean reversion here ie when prices go too far above / below this average, they revert back to it. Currently, we are far below this average and the pullback which has started can be an attempt to mean revert back up to the 50 period average.

RELIANCE : (1548.75)

Buy Above 1558 target 1-1577, target 2-1604, stop loss 1545
Sell Below 1545 target 1-1528, target 2-1507, target 3-1480, stop loss 1560

RELINFRA : (567.75)

Buy Above 560 target 1-589, target 2-597, stop loss 550
Sell Below 550 target 1-532, target 2-504, stop loss 560

RELCAPITAL : (371.75)

Buy Above 370 target 1-382, target 2-388, stop loss 360
Sell Below 360 target 1-349, target 2-341, stop loss 370

RCOM : (183.75)

Buy Above 184 target 1-192, target 2-200, stop loss 178
Sell Below 178 target 1-170, target 2-164, stop loss 186

ABAN : (420.85)

Buy Above 420 target 1-455, target 2-469, stop loss 408
Sell Below 408 target 1-374, target 2-329, stop loss 420

AXIS BANK : (431.05)

Buy Above 430 target 1-437, target 2-444, stop loss 425
Sell Below 427 target 1-420, target 2-411, target 2-381, stop loss 435

BHEL : (1549.80)

Buy Above 1555 target 1-1575, target 2-1599, target 3-1635, stop loss 1540
Sell Below 1540 target 1-1528, target 2-1507, target 3-1489, stop loss 1560

BHARTIARTL : (621.85)

Buy Above 626 target 1-649, target 2-679, stop loss 615
Sell Below 620 target 1-608, target 2-594, stop loss 630

EDUCOMP : (2201.85)

Buy Above 2205 target 1-2257, target 2-2312, stop loss 2180
Sell Below 2180 target 1-2145, target 2-2089, target 3-2048, stop loss 2205

ICICI BANK : (382.20)

Buy Above 385 target 1-390, target 2-396, stop loss 380
Sell Below 377 target 1-369, target 2-345, stop loss 385

INFOSYSTCH : (1344.90)

Buy Above 1355 target 1-1377, target 2-1409, stop loss 1340
Sell Below 1340 target 1-1321, target 2-1297, stop loss 1340

MCDOWELL-N : (678.65)

Buy Above 676 target 1-692, target 2-717, stop loss 660
Sell Below 660 target 1-646, stop loss 676

ONGC : (808.25)

Buy Above 815 target 1-836, target 2-879, stop loss 805
Sell Below 805 target 1-786, target 2-763, stop loss 815

L&T : (680.40)

Buy Above 680 target 1-695, target 1-708, stop loss 670
Sell Below 675 target 1-664, target 2-649, stop loss 685

SBI : (1124.30)

Buy Above 1120 target 1-1144, target 2-1163, target 3-1206, stop loss 1110
Sell Below 1110 target 1-1086, target 2-1065, target 3-1012, stop loss 1120

STERLITE : (374.20)

Buy Above 372 target 1-383, target 2-390, target 3-411, stop loss 360
Sell Below 360 target 1-350, target 2-336, stop loss 372

TATA STEEL : (223.20)

Buy Above 220 target 1-232, target 2-240, stop loss 215
Sell Below 215 target 209, target 2-197, target 3-190, stop loss 225

Sensex : (10048.49) Today Sensex face resistance at 10147, if cross 10147 then goes up to 10245 and 10344. Sensex find support at 9931, if 9931 break then fall up to 9813 and 9715.

Nifty : (3108.65) Today Nifty face resistance at 3137, if cross 3137 then goes up to 3164 and 3193. Nifty find support at 3068, if break 3068 then fall up to 3026 and 2998.

Nifty April Futures closed at 3124.55 (Rs 15.90 Premium) with a turnover of Rs 13306.37 crores. Adds 1053600 Shares (2.91%) in open interest, pushing the open interest to 37246000 shares.

(Inder Bhatia)

Nifty Weekly MAKE OR BREAK

Nifty Daily Last week sensex had cross psychological 10,000 mark and nifty 3100 levels. On daily chart nifty is heading near upper channel and strong resistances zone 3173-3240 .On above chart bulls are trying to make third attempt to crack 3180 on closing base and other side bear had fail there third attempt to crack lower side below 2500 on closing base. We had seen in chart Rsi had cross first time above 60 levels in bear market it indicate market are in grip of bulls and they are trying to crack band of 2500-3200 zones. Technically third or fourth attempt makes bulls or bear weak to hold on there zone . Market had move from 2500 levels to 3100 zone with out any correction so correction is due

NiftyHourly The Indian market opened on flat note and saw choppy session but managed to closed in green zone. For coming session RSI is showing negative divergences on hourly chart it indicate for profit booking around 3136-3153 zone .On the other side 3082-3067 zone will act as support zone .

BUY ABAN ABOVE 445 TGT 470>484 STOPLOSS 427

BUY TATAMOTORS 191 TGT 197>204 STOPLOSS 184






(Mustafa)

Idea has given a 'Triangular' pattern formation breakout with rising volumes on the weekly charts. This suggests a further up-move in the coming weeks.
Traders can buy this stock at current levels and on declines up to Rs.50 with a stop loss of Rs.46.30, with a target of Rs. 65 in the next 3 - 5 weeks.


Bhel has given a 'Triangular' pattern formation breakout with rising volumes on the weekly charts. This suggests a further up-move in the coming weeks.
Traders can buy this stock at current levels and on declines up to Rs.1,510 with a stop loss of Rs.1,478 with a target of Rs. 1,680 in the next 3 - 5 weeks.


OBC has given a breakout from 'Inverse Head & Shoulder' bullish formation with rising volumes on the daily charts. This suggests a further up-move in the coming weeks.
Traders can buy this stock at current levels and on declines up to Rs.116 with a stop loss of Rs.110, with a target of Rs. 138 in the next 1 - 2 weeks.

(Mustafa)

Bulls spring a surprise - Markets may rally further
In our previous weekly report, we had mentioned that the markets would remain range bound and trade in the range of 8650 - 9900 / 2700 - 3000 levels. Further, we had advised traders to trade from the long side only if indices trade and close above 9120 / 2836 levels with a stop loss of 8867 / 2770 levels for a target of 9900 / 3000 levels. The benchmark indices gave a breakout from 9120 / 2836 levels with higher volumes and not only achieved our above-mentioned targets but rallied sharply beyond our expectations to make a high of 10127 / 3123 levels. The Sensex ended with a gain of 12.6% where as the Nifty gained 10.7% vis-à-vis the previous week.Pattern Formation:

• On the weekly charts, we are witnessing a "V" - pattern formation breakout with higher volumes, which suggest further upside and the projected targets for the said pattern is around 11250 - 11500 / 3360 - 3400 levels which also coincide with the 200 days EMA.
• On the weekly charts, the Average Directional Index ADX, which is the trend following indicator is about to give a positive crossover which suggests further upside in the coming weeks.
• On the daily charts, the prices have moved very close towards the "Major" downward sloping trend line joining the two previous significant tops,viz the all time high of 21207 / 6357 levels in Jan 2008 and 15107 / 4558 levels in Sept 08. This downward sloping trend line may act as a resistance.
• Also, we are nearing a strong multiple resistance zone with the previous swing high formed in the range of 10450 - 10550 / 3150 - 3180 levels, which may act as a strong resistance.

Future Outlook:
The coming weeks are truncated on account of market holidays with market working only for 3 days in the next to next week. Keeping this in mind and the fact that we are near the strong multiple resistance levels as mentioned above, there is likelihood of the markets consolidating and possibly witnessing a small correction. However, the "V" pattern breakout as well the ADX suggests that the correction cannot be very sharp and the indices may test the levels of 9800 - 9724 / 3000 - 2970 levels at the most, which should be used as buying opportunities. Short-term traders who have been long at lower levels can book partial profits to reenter at lower levels. As witnessed in the past two weeks, we are likely to see stock specific movement, more in Midcap counters.

MY CHART

Nifty :: As per our last weekly post Nifty exactly in between our most probable target zone .. In Friday trade Nifty made double top near 3123.. All world indices with Nifty and Sensex are in overbought zone.. Be careful at higher level.. Watch three strong resistance 3123/3129/3143.. Our strategy for 30^th March up to 3143 Sell at high (S.L 3180) Buy on deep (S.L 2972)..In one level above 3097 momentum seems up, below 3097 momentum down.. Resistance 3123/3129/3143/3180.. Supports at 3097/3067/3026/ 2972..

Nifty Resistance for the week are 3150-3171-3197.

Nifty Supports for the week are 3045-2985-2851.

______________________________________________________________

Following are the MAGICAL Numbers to Profit for tommrow (Monday)

100% accurate levels for tommrow.

If u like these levels & want to know more send us an E-mail at optionsheaven@yahoo.in for more info.

______________________________________________________________

BUY BUY BUY

BUY BUY BUY RELIANCE industries PUT OPTiON of 1260 Strike price @ cmp of 16-17.

Stoploss 10 on Closing basis.

Target 34-44-54

Book whenver in profit,do not wait for all targets to hit.

______________________________________________________________

BUY BUY BUY

BUY BUY BUY NIFTY PUT OPTION 2900 Strike @ cmp of 57-58.

Stoploss 45 on Closing basis.

Target 90-120-150.

Book whenver in profit,do not wait for all targets to hit.

(SVShah)

NIFTY (3108.65) : This Week Expect NIFTY To Be In Range Of 2950-3190

Resistance : 3140 / 3170 / 3190 / 3210 / 3240

Suppport : 3095 / 3060-50 / 3025 / 2990 / 2965 / 2950

SENSEX (10048.49)

Resistance : 10060 / 10135-50 / 10230-45 / 10295

Suppport : 10025-15 / 9930 / 9885 / 9815-05

NIFTY FUT (3124.55) : Strong Support At 3055/60

Resistance : 3135 / 3155 / 3190

Suppport : 3105 / 3075 / 3055 / 3025

BANK NIFTY (4402.7)

Resistance : 4470 / 4535

Suppport : 4360 / 4300 / 4195

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 2.91% with increasing volumes indicating profit booking in long positions plus forming of short positions for STBT.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

On Monday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 3105,Sl Below 3085,Tgt 3130-3145-3165-3195-3225,

Sustain Below 3085,Sell with Sl Above 3105,Tgt 3070-3055-3035-3005.

Positional Lovers :

Buy NIFTY 3200Ce,When NIFTY Is Around 3020/3040,Sl 2980,Tgt 3080++

Stock Watch :

GMRINFRA , PUNJLOYD , CHAMBAL FERTLISER , EKC , JPASSOCIATES , CENTURYTEXTILES

Buy

BHARAT BIJLEE@ 410, ADANI Above 247,

PRAJIND@ 57, KALPATARU@ 325, APTECH@ 82

ADLABS LOOKING HOT AND FIERY

SAIL(102.8) : Buy Around 100/101,Sl 98,Tgt 106/108+

STERLITE (374.2) : Buy Around 350/60,Sl 335,Tgt 395/405+

GRASIM (1602.95) : Buy Around 1560/70,Sl 1505,Tgt 1650/70/90+

SESAGOA(107.8) : Buy Around 105,Sl 99,Tgt 113/15+

Buy SBIN(1124),Sl Below 1110,Tgt 1140-1150-1160

Buy ACC Above 585/90

Buy RENUKA Above 89

Buy HCLTECH Above 105,Tgt 110/15,Sl 100

Buy BPCL Above 365,Tgt 370-380-390,Sl 360

Buy GAIL Above 240,Tgt 245-250-260,Sl 235

Buy ITC Above 185,Tgt 190-195-205,Sl 180

Buy REDINGTON Above 110,Tgt 113-115-119,Sl 108

Sell BHEL Below 1545,Tgt 1530-1505-1450,Sl 1565

Sell CMC Below 295,Tgt 290-280-270,Sl 300

Sell ONGC Below 805,Tgt 785-760-710,Sl 820

FUTURES

HDFC (1589) : Sell@ 1605/25,Sl 1640,Tgt 1560/45

RIL (1548) : Sell 1565/75,Sl 1585,Tgt 1535/20 (Clear Off Shorts @ 1520)

RCOM (183.85) : Buy@ 175/78,Sl 170,Tgt 190/95

COMEX GOLD (APR) : Momentum studies are rising from mid-range, which could accelerate a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market could take on a defensive posture with the daily closing price reversal down. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The next upside objective is 951.4. The next area of resistance is around 941.7 and 951.4, while 1st support hits today at 927.1 and below there at 922

COMEX SILVER (MAY) : Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside objective is 1388.3. The next area of resistance is around 1367.7 and 1388.3, while 1st support hits today at 1333.3 and below there at 1319.4

Buy April GOLD Above 15185,Tgt 15260-15385-15685,Sl 15080

Sell GOLD Below 15080,Tgt 15065-14925-14640,Sl 15185

Buy May SILVER Below 22350,Tgt 22550-22935-23420,Sl 22020

Sell SILVER Below 22015,Tgt 21925-21550-20925,Sl 22345

Buy April CRUDE Above 2680,Tgt 2715-2735-2790,Sl 2660

Sell CRUDE Below 2655,Tgt 2620-2565-2455,Sl 2675

Buy April COPPER Above 207.8,Tgt 209.7-212.6-213.9,Sl 204.3

Sell COPPER Below 204.3,Tgt 202.9-199.1-192.3,Sl 207.8

S S Cheema

… costly because every time I go wrong I stake the greatest asset of mine – the reputation. I would not have suffered so badly had I not started the blog and contribution to two three other sites. But now that I do it – the pressure of accuracy weighs heavy. It is not that this rally was not anticipated – nor were the levels we are jumping to every day now. I had mentioned that this can be a surprise rally taking us to 3400 levels and higher. What I obviously did not get that the rally will be with so much vigour and non stop. Ever since I saw the first indicator go overbought – I anticipated the markets to take a breather – stay there for a day or so or perhaps come down on a 50% retracement – and that has not happened. As of now we have three indicators I study are either deeply overbought or just about there. There has been no recent precedent of these indicators wherein we have stayed for so long in these conditions. Now seeing these indicators overbought I ignored a very important indicator – the violation of the Bollinger band. When the upper Bollinger band was violated – I should have taken this as a strong indication of the trend continuation and if we see the charts now we see that the violations continue even now. All the same the lesson is that – do not oppose the trend – do not over anticipate the happening and do not read the charts with preconceived ideas as to where we are heading. In due course the charts tell were we they intend going.

Where are we going now? We have also violated the 100 EMA that was attempted to be taken out in April end, May end, Aug and Sep. This time however we have crossed the 100 EMA more than any of the earlier attempts. The volumes continue to be marginally better than before. So? is the worst over – It may be for the time being atleast. We may correct some and then continue our journey upper – the pitfalls? elections! - markets do not like the uncertainty – and that is close at hands. okay before I finish with the 100 EMA – let us see the last 5 year charts. see the blue EMA line trailing across the chart – see the 100 EMA has remained well above the markets and this time we are above. If this is the continuation of the bear market then expect a sharp fall. see every time it has retracted it has done so with vengeance. if it does not – then a slow journey north wards can begin.

Before I come down to the charts – once again I think we should look at the Global cues. Asia is showing reluctance in carrying forward this rally – Nikkei was down 0.11% and Hang Seng up marginally 0.07% and Strait Times down 0.75%. Europe was all red inspite of opening flat. FTSE was red 0.67%, Dax down 1.31% and CAC down 1.78%. US markets have overall surged forward 6% plus this week even after ending the week with a small correction. Dow was down 1.87%, Nasdaq down 2.63% and S&P 500 2.03%.

The daily charts show the Bollinger band upper limit being violated by the candles. That has broadened the Bollinger bands also. You can see in this chart once again that the 100 EMA is now below the 5 EMA and that has been quite an achievement. Infact the other landmark has been the crossover of 50 EMA by the 20 EMA. These definitely signal a short term run up. Volumes were 142% the last 50 day average. ADX is giving strength to run up. MACD is bullish like hell. RSI is overbought and so is Slow Stochastic. Most important of all we have violated the upper band drawn and if we continue to sustain up then there w

Last week of March 2009 and First week of April 2009 will start from 30th March 2009 and will end on 2nd April 2009. On 3rd April 2009 Indian Stock Market will remain close due to National Holiday Raam Navami 2009. We have seen 2000 points pre-election really in BSE Sensex in last three weeks "Jay Ho", Some of the reader of this blog has posted comments that Market will not touch even 10,000, but they forgot that this is Stock Market, it will change its pattern any time, we are just helping you to Minimize your Loss and Maximize your profit. KEEP SURFING. We welcome your valuable comments.

Planetary position during Last week of March 2009 and First week of April 2009
Sun, Mercury, Retrograde Venus will transit in Pisces.
Moon will transit in Aries, Taurus and Gemini.
Mars will transit in Aquarius.
Jupiter and Rahu will transit in Pisces.
Retrograde Saturn will transit in Leo.
Ketu will transit in Cancer.

Moon will transit from Krittika, Rohini, Mrigshirsha and Aadra constellations.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS

Stock Market Prediction for 30th March 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Taurus sign. Transiting Moon and Transiting Mars are in square aspects, indicates Indian Stock Market BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty may open down or nearer to closing, but Transiting Sun and Transiting Mercury are in Pisces, may support market. Market may steady or up side after 12.00pm. Market will under selling pressure after 15.05, Market may close at up or nearer to previous closing.



Stock Market Prediction for 31st March 2009

Transiting Moon will be passing through Taurus sign, indicates good opening in Indian Stock Market BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty. Market may up between 10.17am to 11.00am. Transiting Venus will be Retrograde so some pressure will be there. Gold and Crude would be Volatile and it may effect market. Selling pressure in heavy weight Script may volatile market sentimental. Market may try to touch both extremes so be careful while intraday trading.



Stock Market Prediction for 1st April 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Taurus sign and Gemini sign, indicates Market may open down or nearer to previous closing. Market may recover and graph may change his pattern. Market may go up after 11.50. Indian Stock Market BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty will be volatile.





Stock Market Prediction for 2nd April 2009



Transiting Moon will be passing through Gemini sign and it will be last day of trading week, indicates market may go up between 11.39 and 12.15, generally market will do business nearer to opening surface. Selling pressure will down market after 14.10.




Stock Market Prediction for 3rd April 2009
National Stock Exchange and Bombay Stock exchanges will remain closed On 3rd April 2009, Friday due to National Holiday Raam Navami 2009.

Technical Analysis
Nifty has created bullish pattern in last week, if Nifty will close above 3155 for two days, it may go up to 3240. Resistance Level for Nifty will be 3128, 3221, 3289 and 3342. Support Level for Nifty will be 3082, 3035, 2950 and 2833.

Resistance Level for Sensex will be 10228, 10474, 10653 and 10785. Support Level for Sensex will be 10014, 9885, 9571 and 9132.

had given reasons for my bullishness and why markets will go up to 3500 and 3700. Now let’s see about people projecting bearish views. I remember players saying that market will touch SENSEX 6000 and 10000 being impossible. Now these very people are recommending 12500. They are by profession brokers and will remain brokers forever. There interest is their income and not your profit.

Those who have sold and booked losses and waiting with tons of cash did not get even an opportunity to buy it again. This is what the market is all about.

It is always said never trust a broker neither trust the FII who has history of damaging the capital markets globally. The smart investors is the one who identifies his own stock, enters at the time when nobody is there and capitalize the gains when mad rush starts.

As of date also most of the investors are not ready to digest that the recovery has started. History is repeating. Investors are making exit at every rise as if there is no tomorrow but for sure these very investors will not be able to sit on cash for a long time. They sell one and buy another in anticipation of making quick bucks and get stuck there. After all they too have passion to trade.

Large inflows started with Mutual Funds now jumping back into market and scouting for good stocks in FO to begin with. So long as value lies they will buy FO stocks and once they become costly then they will switch loyalty to mid caps and the same way to small caps. You decide from where you want to start.

We have produced unmatched calls in last 4 weeks because the market was on upswing. So long as the Bull Run is intact, strike rate will remain high.

We initiated buy in TISCO at 170 with target 225 which has seen the light of the day. Our next target in TISCO is Rs 280. WELSPUN will rise to 127. VOLTAS will cross 60 and DCHL will become Rs 100 in due course of time. CENTURY, BOMBAY DYEING, RIL, SBI and RELIANCE CAPITAL is always our first choice. They have enough upside. BOMBAY DYEING has crossed the major resistance of Rs 149 now which clearly means the next target is 227 where it could halt for a while and thereafter you will see the old BOMBAY DYEING back with target of Rs 1000 and 2000. The only difference is that all FII holding has made exit and now only REL CAPITAL and management are left and the whole selling got absorbed. Now it is just a matter of one quarter where the company books realty gains and the race will start.

Similarly there are few very good stocks in mid cap which are just waiting for explosion. THIRUMALAI CHEMICALS, VIP, CCL, GODREJ INDUSTRIES, JK CEMENT, TANEJA, ATUL, STERLITE TECHNO, BRIGADE, ADHUNIK, INDIAN HUME PIPE, KIRLOSKAR BROTHERS, UB HOLDINGS etc which offer great value but corrected due to the investors psychology and FII killing the stock.

In small caps ASSAM COMPANY, JEYSWAL NECO, MSP STEEL, ENTEGRA, BAJAJ STEEL, SS DUNCAN, SAMBADAM SPINNING, ITI, RDB, GTC, SANDUR, GREMACH still offers great value. Especially RDB which had already announced de-merger of cigarette earlier is very close to announce the record date now. It is learnt from sources that company has approached FII and Investment Bank to scout for strategic investor in the cigarette co post de-merger.

FII are scouting for mining and tea stocks. In mining TISCO, STERLITE, BEML and SESA offers great value. We had given buy in SESA at 94 yesterday and it has touched Rs 109 today. TISCO and STERLITE are already on fire. BEML very few know that it is one of the mining stories. In small caps, SANDUR, MSP, JEYSWAL, ENTEGRA and ADHUNIK are in mining.

Trading

Watch out for stocks like, DLF, UNITECH, ESCORTS, BHARAT FORGE, TATA TELE, AMTEK AUTO, SUZLON, BHARAT ELECTRONICS, TULIP, CROMPTON GREAVES, BHARTI AIRTEL. All these stocks are good above the last Friday closing level and if they give the breakout they can go up for a minimum upside of 5 to 8%. Friday’s low levels are the support for these stocks and are bad only below that level. As market is over heated, these stocks may also open down on Monday and watch these stocks and buy them near Friday’s low level and hold them only as long as they hold the last Friday’s low level, which is a major support level for these stocks.

CNXIT (2387) is showing strength to give 15-20% return in the next 6months 1^st target can be 2810; it can even target 3220 in a medium term we will consider that latter. Stocks in our Coverage: INFOSYS, TCS, WIPRO, TECHM and PATNI

BHARAT ELECTRONICS is breaking out after a brief pause; next target can be 980-1000. Buy with stop loss of 815 on closing basis.

Investors can keep a watch to add INDIABULLS REAL ESTATE Rs.99.25, HDIL Rs.86.70 and UNITED SPIRITS Rs.677.60 for short-term gains.

Tit Bits

Once Reliance Industries’ D6 field in the KG basin begins gas production, it is expected to boost the demand for transmission infrastructure (pipelines) significantly. As a result, the fortunes of pipe manufacturers are likely to change. It may be noted that investments in pipeline infrastructure are the last leg of an oil and gas project. Moreover, with city gas distribution coming under the government’s focus, the demand for transmission network will remain strong. Reduction in input costs (mainly steel) due to the economic slowdown has also indirectly helped pipe manufacturers. In fact, as per some domestic pipe manufacturers, order booking has increased by almost 30% to 40% from the lows in the last two-three years.

Investment Updates

Problem with innocent retail investor is that they always buy at higher levels with left behind feelings & gets trapped at higher levels.

After that they are in full grip of fear & when they see their investment falling to very low values and the fear turns into frustration and at the height of frustration is the time to start accumulating good stocks.

When market goes up again for some time, temptation (under grip of greed) will overpower fear & again buying may come up at higher levels. Thus this is half hearted approach to the market. I have seen few who were reluctant to buy at 5000/6000 level of index, have entered at above 18000 levels index & suffered huge losses.

After good consolidation over the last few weeks, the market seems to have given a good breakout. It appears that FII selling has come to an end or the market value of whatever remains may be very small. LIC has played very important roll in stabilising the market. Mutual funds, short sellers and HNIs too are sitting on good cash. It is possible that the market may attract this cash if it closes above Rs.10300 decisively, which looks very much possible. It is encouraging to see that there is FII inflows in many sectors. Even the real estate sector is attracting selective FII buying. Stocks like HIND ZINC Rs.450, SESA GOA Rs.107.90, CUMMINS Rs.179.40, KALPATARU POWER Rs.330.90, HCC Rs.40.35, TATA CHEMICALS Rs.145.15, PSL Rs.79, MICRO INKS Rs.126, ASHIANA HOUSING Rs.36 discussed in this column over the last few weeks have given good returns in the short-term. Investors can continue to hold these stocks with a long-term view.

RATNAMANI METALS LTD. 520111 Rs.35.80 is engaged in manufacturing welded and seamless stainless steel (SS) pipes & tubes, carbon steel (CS) LSAW, HSAW and ERW pipes. To cater to the rising demand the company is adding 3,000 TPA of capacity in stainless steel tubes and pipes segment, which will be operational shortly and take its total stainless steel pipe capacity to 22,000 TPA. In the carbon steel segment, it is adding 100,000 TPA of HSAW capacity through brown field expansion, which will double its HSAW capacity to 200,000 TPA and take the total carbon steel capacity to 400,000 TPA. The company meets 100% power requirement from its 24 windmills generating 20.54 MW of green power. It has also backward integrated by establishing a hot extrusion line, which has reduced its dependence on the imported material to some extent. As a part of forward integration, the company has recently set up a 3 layer polyethylene and epoxy coating line with a capacity of 2.7 million sq. mtrs. As most of the company’s sale is to the oil & gas and petrochemical industries, it reported a poor performance for Q3FY09. Even for the first nine months of FY09, its top line grew by 12% to Rs.690 crore, whereas net profit declined by 25% to Rs.55 crore posting an EPS of Rs.11 on its current equity of Rs.9 crore. However, the company has not made the notional forex loss provisions of Rs.12.50 crore on its outstanding foreign currency loans. Taking this into account, it may end FY09 with sales of Rs.900 crore and profit of Rs.50 crore, which works out to an EPS of Rs.11 for the entire FY09. For FY10, it has the potential to do much better with enhanced capacities. Accumulate only at sharp declines

FIRST LEASING COMPANY Rs.30.40 is engaged in financial activities viz. financing lease, hire purchase and loans. The company is also engaged in wind power generation.

Today, leasing is an essential part of the financial system and provides an important source of funds for every sector of the Indian economy, right from consumer finance related transactions to equipment for the Pharmaceutical, Automobile, Software and Telecommunications industries. Leasing is used as an additional source of capital for financing the capital assets of companies, which enables them not to use short-term money for long-term assets reducing the earlier dependence on working capital resources. Globalisation of the Indian economy brought several NBFC into the market resulting in intensive competition. First Leasing with its 35 years of successful experience responds to these market developments by adopting safe credit policies and procedures instead of attempting to force growth. A positive development that confirms that leasing has good future prospects is that Indian industry is shedding its conservative attitude of preference for asset ownership and increasingly moving towards leased equipment.

First Leasing's risk asset portfolio includes some of the world's largest multinationals and Indian giants, which is substantiated by the fact that its Net Non-Performing Assets as of 31 March 2008 dropped to 0.00% from 0.01% in FY07. It’s consolidated Sundry Debtors 'Account' fell to Rs.19.94 crore from Rs.22.16 crore even though revenues expanded robustly from Rs.130.42 crore to Rs.158.70 crore

This justifies its Triple 'A' rating from two credit rating agencies, Fitch and Care. But in an environment of the Sensex rising to a high of 21,206.77 and then falling to a low of around 7700, the First Leasing equity share distinguished itself as a share whose value is measured by the most important of performance metric 'cash dividends paid' rather than by a fleeting series of transient digital numbers that rise and fall. First Leasing has paid dividends over 33 years consistently, ranging from 18% to 22.5% in FY08.

Accompanying the growth in contribution by the manufacturing sector to the country's Gross National Product (GNP), there is a felt need for vendor leasing so that items such as high cost medical equipment can be accessed by everyone. First Leasing has taken a major position in this market and is likely to significantly grow its footprint here. Energy is also on its agenda given the 40 hour power cuts imposed in Maharashtra. First Leasing has actively supported the growth of wind energy through windmills and is presently in serious discussions to lease oil rigs.

For the first nine months of FY09, it reported an income of Rs.132 crore against Rs.111 crore last year while net profit touched Rs.25.43 crore against Rs.22.46 crore in spite of 32% higher interest cost, which is likely to come down in the near future. The company made provision of deferred tax of Rs.8.71 crore against Rs.7.7 crore in previous corresponding period.

On its equity base of Rs.22.79 crore, the nine month EPS was Rs.11.15 while cash EPS including deferred tax was Rs.19.3. The company is said to be faring well and the full year FY09 EPS likely to be around Rs.14/15.

Seeing to its past track record of good dividend distribution and the current tax-free dividend yield of 7.7%, the stock looks very attractive for accumulation at every dip as a safe investment bet for decent growth in times to come.

The stock attracts strong support around Rs.28 level since the last few months but a decisive closing above Rs.33 level can take it to around Rs.37/38 level. The stock is available at its November 2004 valuation when the Sensex was around 6200 level.

On a standalone basis, the sales of THERMAX LTD. Rs.171.55 for the first nine months of FY09 was higher by 1% and net profit was lower by 4% at Rs.192.96 crore But on a consolidated basis, the sales for the period fell by 1% to Rs.2447.14 crore and the PBT was lower by 9% to Rs.274.94 crore. Finally, the net profit was lower by 12% to Rs.183.47 crore The unexecuted order book of the Thermax group as on 30 December 2008 was Rs.4103 crore compared to Rs.4071 crore as on 30 September 2008. The standalone order book was Rs.3854 crore, which was higher by about 44% on YOY basis. Total income for Q3FY09 was Rs.803.8 crore, a fall of 6%, and a PAT by 4% to Rs.72.3 crore. About 79% of the revenue for the quarter came from the energy segment and 21% came from the environment segment. For the first nine months, the share was 75.5% from energy and 24.5% from environment. Similarly, the domestic: international mix is 69:31. For the nine month period, the international business accounts for 25.5%. Set back at the operational level is largely due to the slowdown and some liquidity issues with its customers. The company's order book position consists of orders from sectors such as power, cements, metallurgy, refinery and steel in equal proportion. The company expects lesser new investments coming in from sectors like cement, steel and metallurgy in the next 12 months. But the power sector investments will be strong and investments in refinery projects across the globe will continue. The FMCG and food processing industry is unlikely to cut down its capex and should do well.

This Rs.2 paid-up stock is trading around Rs.168 wherein the worst seems to have been discounted. Book value of the company is around Rs.62 while expected EPS for FY09 is likely to be around Rs.20/21 level.

Investors can accumulate this stock on dips with a target price of Rs.250 over the next one year.

KALPATARU POWER TRANSMISSION Rs.330.90 has bagged another three orders worth Rs.399 crore from the Power Grid Corporation of India for 765 kv and 400 kv transmission line projects. The company is a turnkey player in design, fabrication, construction and erection of transmission lines and sub-station structures. The orders are for supply and construction of transmission lines in Bihar, Chhattisgarh and Assam. The delivery schedule of the projects is between 18 and 24 months. Investors can keep a watch on this stock for buying on dips around Rs.280 level for good long-term growth.

Book value of CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA Rs.34.90 is around Rs.80 while expected EPS for FY09 is likely to be around Rs.15/16. Investors can accumulate this stock for decent growth over the next few years time.

KCP LTD. Rs.128.85 is another good stock as the company is into power, cement and heavy engineering industry. Book value of the share is around Rs.160 and it pays 100% dividend while the stock is available at Rs.130 level. Investors can keep a watch on this stock for accumulation on dips around Rs.110 level. Revival in the economy, may take the stock to much higher levels.

Investors can accumulate FORTIS HEALTHCARE Rs.66.20 around Rs.64/65 levels for good long-term growth.

SUPREME IND: There is positive feedback on the core business in most of its divisions. I would like to add the stock if drops to 95 levels. Buyback is over, floating stock is less. FII holding is zero.

BHARAT BIJLEE: Power and Power Equipment is the only sector in India, where growth prospects are visible. With expansion and renovation of power grid across the country, HV Transformer producers like Bharat Bijlee are expected to do well. This Rs 600 crore plus entity is equipped to play a major role here. New expansions are in place, fresh products added to the existing lines and considering that the corporate books maximum revenues in the Q4, the full year numbers should better FY08 earnings of Rs 128 per share and a dividend pay-out of Rs 30 per share. The corporate has a small equity of Rs 5.60 crore, marginal working capital debt of Rs 20 crore.

But on top of that BBL holds 28,25, 160 shares of Siemens India worth Rs 68 crore, 102980 shares of HDFC worth Rs 15.44 crore and Bonds of the National Housing Bank worth Rs 15 crore. In addition there are 15000 shares of ICICI, 3.33 lakh shares of HOEC and some shares in unlisted cooperative banks. In all, these investments are worth over Rs 100 crore, and final dividend alone from Siemens declared in Q4 should amount to Rs 85 lakh.

CUMMINS INDIA: Beside rumour of delisting there is possibility of some acquisitions which may add to values. There is strong buying in the counter with better volumes in last few days.

On the short term we are making doji candles in the upmove which may imply some breather or a possible reversal/retracement signal in the short term trend. Simple technicals suggests the low of the last two sessions if taken of then we may possibly see a retracement ( fibo levels once we see confirmation ).

So 9910/9740 become the important lower levels which a short term trader should look for as supports or stops. On the upside the band of 10200-10500 becomes very important.

Stocks to watchout for :

ABB,BHEL,Siemens, RIL have done the faster part of the upmove book profits.Praj and GNFC inch up Orbit stagnant.

IDEA has broken out now stop 48/49.LnT almost comes close to 700.

JSW Steel and Punj Lloyd up 10-15% in the day !

Little illiquid counters which look good on the charts . Stop of 3-4% tgt 10% .

BEML above 390 , HCl tech above 107 , Bharat Forget above 98 ,Torrent Power 98 may give surprise upmoves in short term.

ACC and Guj Ambuja the only few stocks which are above 200 dema and now seem a breakout but not much increase in volumes . If moves out with big volumes then look for short term moves.

SCI and GE Shipping both the shipping stocks look good for a sharp upmove. Speculative traders can buy on dips or momentum with a stop of 74.5 /174. Also baltic index impact/economic signs etc may help.

Ibreal Estate /HDIL /RCAP ( above 385 ) could be the speculative counters short term positional traders can look towards if markets remain stable for next 2-3 weeks.

Market Observations and Thoughts :

As usual in the weekend had some conversations with people related to stock markets and the amount of confusion remains to be high with a section who says new bull run other says a false move other says much bigger fall to come and the no of such sections keep increasing by the day.

A few weeks back the consensus was clearly towards a new low !! Even i was looking at a minimum of 8300 ( video posted ) and 7900-7700 possibly. But as always markets are bound to surprise the market participants !!! All of a sudden the blame game begins and now everyone is talking of this to be a pre-election rally !! and i still dont see much of electoral updates in the newspapers.

Being a technical analyst the bias is always towards data so i just checked on to the global indices folder.

Italy,Argentina or be it Brazil , Russia ,India,Hong Kong , Japan or USA and European indices of UK,Germany,France have all moved up around 15-25% from the lows around March5-10. Some have hit new lows some dint but the move is clear in all the indices.

So the surge has been all over the world irrespective of elections or Geithner report in USA or any other reason !!

There are two types of expert or comical views now.

WE FIXED IT --- RALLY ( bullish view )

( BULLS say the recession is over or the worst part of recession will get over sooner then expected the opposing party Bears says its an illusion created to fool the ever alive bulls !! )

WE SCREWED THEM --- RALLY

( The BEARS say this is the last illusive bear rally to trap the hurted bulls to be killed in the last and final onslaught. The Bulls say the contradictory upmove instead of a big fall we have trapped the sleepy bears ! and every bull run starts with a Bear rally)