Contrary to this, market crossed 3100 because after 2800 those funds sitting on the fence felt the heat and joined the band wagon. This is reflected from FII flows. At the same time the selling has already hit the deck which is abundantly clear from the report flashed on the web site of Cniinfo Xchange ( www.cnniinfoxchange.net ) FII holding below 5%.
Apart from these 2 reasons the following reason are assigned for a good recovery in the market and further upside till 3500 and 3700 and possibly to 4200 depending the flows and further developments globally.
Obama polices have paid off and Dow recovered from 6500 to 7800 and heading for 9000 its correct value.
There is demand resurfacing in US housing. Renters have turned buyers due to sheet bottom hitting.
China admitted that US action of printing currency is not good as a new currency is required. But this admission will make China to accept that the demand will grow and will start re open the import gates. There is no option.
The demand in India for housing has started picking up and confidence has started returning. Our field study suggest 70% of the new projects in Western Mumbai have found new takers which seems to be the effect of low interest rate on housing loans. They are not ready to differ the decision any more.
Retail investors are fully relieved in the year end exit and now ready with some left over cash and ready to accept fresh ideas since confidence is rebuilding.
Bulls have first time after Dec got a favorable vallan which will be used for fresh positions in April as the mark to mark problem is eased to a great extent.
Few reputed long funds have started entering Indian shores and Hedge Funds are just waiting to enter. Trigger for H F is 10500 where they will enter with target of 3700 and 4200.
Direct tax collection is likely to cross the budgeted figure and corporate earnings will b definitely better than Q3.
Banks are coming forward to lend helping hand with liquidity as the concerns of bad debts have started receding to a great extent.
And the last but not least is that the funds and operators who have supported market between 2600 and 2800 over a period of six months with maximum pain would not settle for a gain of just 10% in any case. If it was 14 long laboured months to sell stuff worth 14 bn usd in India, the reinvesting of at least 25% of the same could take at least 45 days which is called safer period and coincides with election results. Therefore APRIL rally looks eminent with intermittent volatility before the May huge volatility and uncertainly takes center place.
Once again we have no expertise in generating technical calls and the Nifty targets may be on target as per charts but there was nobody on this soil to tell you that NIFTY will touch 3100 in this vallan that too when Nifty was 2700 and 2800 levels. The pattern has become bullish.
Beware the fury of a patient man
As expected Markets were on a Rock n Roll on the day of expiry. Sensex Crosses 10000 mark & Nifty Tests 3100, Sensex managed to close above 10000 while Nifty managed to close at 3082 which was our resistance level for yesterday (3080).
Yesterday in our updates it was clearly written that markets are in highly +ve mood & if sustains above 3030 markets to test 3080 & 3131. If you can yesterdays intra day charts markets for 1 or 2 hours was halted at 3030 & in just 1 hour of trade above 3030 it was a Rocket to test 3100 levels.
Also yesterday it was mentioned that to manage the indices the stocks which have not participated in the rally or has underperformed indices in this short run wil participate & the same happened in the markets. Stocks which we bet on were Bharti Airtel & Lnt & along with this which participated yesterday were Bhel, Sunpharma, Ongc etc... which underperformed or did not participate in this short term bull run.
NifTiee Intra day levels :
Close 3082
Supports : 3050 / 3030 / 2990
Resistances : 3111 / 3131 / 3180
Now this is too late time to create any fresh longs in the markets at this levels. Also revise trailing stop loss for short term long postions to 2929, this was been updated yesterday only. No doubt at higher levels profit booking may come any time so if you are happy with the current gains you are getting then start booking profits with out timing the markets & waitng to sell at the top price. In this markets its practical that no 1 can buy at the bottom price & no 1 can sell the top price so we need to play in between this two.
Sensex : (10003.10) Today Sensex face resistance at 10154, if cross 10154 then goes up to 10305 and 10457. Sensex find support at 9910, if 9910 break then fall up to 9759 and 9515.
Nifty : (3082.25) Today Nifty face resistance at 3130, if cross 3130 then goes up to 3178 and 3234. Nifty find support at 3055, if break 3055 then fall up to 3007 and 2933.
Nifty March Futures closed at 3082.25 (0.00 Premium) with a turnover of Rs 10840.19 crores.Sheds 553500 Shares (-3.32%) in open interest, bringing down the open interest to 16125700 Shares.
Hot Spot--------L&T
The Indian market saw strong opening and closed with huge gains .For coming session we are heading near strong resistance near 3120-3150 levels . On the other side 3014-2978 zone will act support zone
SELL Siemens Stop Loss 262 Target 215
SELL Aban Offshore Stop Loss 380 Target 318
SELL Sesa Goa Stop Loss 108 Target 78
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12:00 NOON UPDATE: Could this be a flag? If so, breakout above will make market run up quick. Not sure for now..But if it does, its good for an intraday trade.
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Okay guys...You saw I shorted a bit yesterday...I added some more today...And I hedged this with 3000 April calls. I am not sure at this juncture what we are going to do next...I see at minimum a pullback and then a move higher...It is actually too late to go long which is why I am not doing this...
For the bullish case, we need to have some sort of pullback here..else I am sorry to say, we are going into bubble mode and we will have a fast crash-like move...I am not raving bearish anymore..more like neutral..so remember my positions reflect that...
I mentioned earlier that I am looking more at swing signals(thanks to kpl) for trading signals going forward..So that I keep out of trouble going forward.
See the 20hr swing below.
Coming to sentiment...Its turned very bullish now..I would be cautious on longs..If we get a decent pullback I shall look to go long..Ofcourse will reevaluate at that point...Frankly this is a very confusing juncture..tough trading.
EW structures...I have some interesting ideas..One bullish(the obvious one) and the bearish one...Now since the obvious is more often incorrect, I would be cautious. I am thinking STILL along the bearish lines...For those familiar with the EW lingo, I think its a bearish wave4 flat or a wave4 triangle still..with w5 down still to come..However we need to respect momentum here and wait for some confirmation on downside...tough to say right now...But I will post these scenarios with charts later..maybe tomorrow....If anyone else has thoughts on this, please comment.
Intraday setups - I dont have anything at the moment but I shall post if I do see something interesting...note that these setups and patterns dont come often but when they do, we can bank some good coin and low risk.
Though there is negative divergences in both 5-minute & Hourly timeframes, only a weak trading below 3050 and an hourly close below 3035 will confirm it.
Pivot for tomorrow being 3066 & the s1 @3028 may offer a support while R1 @ 3120 may be a resistance area.
Daily trend is firmly up and Nifty is trending up within the channel(A steep channel..!!-how long will it go.??). Intra dips may be used to buy..Part booking on sharp rises is not a bad idea.
Nifty :: Today Nifty break an important resistance level and enter in our weekly Elliott wave target zone. Now breakout level 3028/3031 works as strong support for coming days..As far as stay above 3028 momentum up.. Still all world indices are in overbought zone and made long bearish divergence.. May be we see major correction within one or two days.. Avoid buying at high.. Watch first strong resistance zone 3110/3118 above it momentum turns strong .. Our strategy for 27th March buy on deep (S.L 3017) Sell at high.. Resistance for up move at 3110/3118/3150/3180/3221/3240/3250.. Supports 3041/3028 /3017/2996/2965/2939..
We had told Nifty will breakout of channel in intraday chart. Nifty went up more than we expected. Let us now see the Daily charts and see where Nifty is heading. We can see that from past 2 months Nifty has been in a channel. As of now we can expect to see some channel resistance of 3150-3180. The result season will dictate whether Nifty will breakout from this channel. If breakout happens then Nifty - BELIEVE IT OR NOT- can see 3500-3700 levels!!! That will be an impressive rally in a bear market. But as of now 3150-3200 is VERY IMPORTANT channel resistance.
Daily Market Outlook: 27 March 2009
It was fantastic day for the Indian markets as markets witnessed a strong up move on the expiry day after a long time. Indian markets opened on a positive note on account of better than expected economic data from the US. With strong opening of Asian markets, markets moved only one way – northwards. However, markets shed few points towards the fag end of the session. Fall in inflation to 0.27 per cent also contributed to the rise in index. With this strong performance, Sensex crossed the psychological 10,000 mark and closed at 10,003.10 (up 335.20 points) and Nifty closed at 3,082.25 (up 97.90 points). As per the sectoral performance, except realty, all other indices closed in the green with significant gains. Major fall in Realty index happened due to Akruti City, which fell by 55.10 per cent. Capital goods, metal and power were the major gainers. Market breadth was positive with 1,392 advances and only 1,138 declines.
NIFTY (3082.25)
Support : 3025 / 3040 / 2980 / 2960
Resistance : 3110-20 / 3150 / 3195
SENSEX
Support : 9805 / 9740 / 9610
Resistance : 10130 / 10200 / 10255
NIFTY FUT (3082)
Support : 3035 / 3010 / 2985 / 2935
Resistance : 3115 / 3130 / 3150 / 3175
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI up 19.07% with 48% increasing volumes indicating forming of long positions. NIFTY FUT OI at 3.61 CR,
we are starting new series with heavy OI build up. We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive.
On Friday,Opening is Flat to Up,
Stay Long Above 3080,Sl Below 3060,Tgt 3105-3130-3160-3175,
Sustain Below 3060,Sell with Sl Above 3080,Tgt 3040-3025-3005-2970
Buy CENTURYTEXT Above 205/07
Buy GAIL Above 240,Tgt 245/50,Sl 235
Buy ICICIBANK Above 375
Buy TITAN Above 775
Sbin (1096) Buy with Sl Below 1080,Tgt 1115-1130
Buy BOB Above 235,Tgt 245-250-265,Sl 230
Buy BHEL Above 1565,Tgt 1610-1660-1775,Sl 1545
Buy ITC Above 185,Tgt 190-195-205,Sl 180
Sell BAJAJAUTO Below 615,Tgt 605-595-565,Sl 630
Sell BIOCON Below 135,Tgt 130-125-115,Sl 140
Sell VSNL Below 530,Tgt 525-515-500,Sl 540
FUTURES
LNT (661.35) : Buy 650/55,Sl 340,Tgt 675/85+
TATAMOTORS (172.7) : Buy@ 165/70,Sl 160,Tgt 175/80/85+
Buy ZEEL@ 105/06,Sl 103,Tgt 106.7/107.2/108.3/109.3/110.4/111.5/112.6/113.3 (Lot Size : 2800)
Sell ESCORTS@ 35/36,Sl 37,Tgt 35.5/35.1/34.7/34/33.6/33.3 (Lot Size : 9600)
COMEX GOLD (APR): The market now above the 40-day moving average suggests the longer-term trend has turned up. Momentum studies are trending higher from mid-range, which should support a move higher if resistance levels are penetrated. The cross over and close above the 18-day moving average is an indication the intermediate-term trend has turned positive. The upside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat bullish. The market has a slightly positive tilt with the close over the swing pivot. The next upside target is 957.4. The next area of resistance is around 946.9 and 957.4, while 1st support hits today at 920.9 and below there at 905.5.
COMEX SILVER (MAY): Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market's close above the 9-day moving average suggests the short-term trend remains positive. The daily closing price reversal up is a positive indicator that could support higher prices. The close over the pivot swing is a somewhat positive setup. The near-term upside objective is at 1403.7. The next area of resistance is around 1380.0 and 1403.7, while 1st support hits today at 1314.0 and below there at 1271.8.
| Technical Levels for 27 March 2009 | ||||||||
| Symbol | RES 1 | RES 2 | RES 3 | Pivot | Supp1 | Supp 2 | Supp 3 | Signal |
| GOLD | 15355.00 | 15445.00 | 15539.00 | 15261.00 | 15171.00 | 15077.00 | 14987.00 | Buy Signal |
| SILVER | 22738.33 | 22907.67 | 23150.33 | 22495.67 | 22326.33 | 22083.67 | 21914.33 | Buy Signal |
| LEAD | 67.17 | 67.98 | 69.17 | 65.98 | 65.17 | 63.98 | 63.17 | Buy Signal |
| COPPER | 209.28 | 211.92 | 215.33 | 205.87 | 203.23 | 199.82 | 197.18 | Buy Signal |
| NICKEL | 499.10 | 505.50 | 512.60 | 492.00 | 485.60 | 478.50 | 472.10 | Buy Signal |
| CRUDEOIL | 2745.33 | 2786.67 | 2815.33 | 2716.67 | 2675.33 | 2646.67 | 2605.33 | Sell Signal |
| ZINC | 67.60 | 68.75 | 70.55 | 65.80 | 64.65 | 62.85 | 61.70 | Buy Signal |
| NATURALGAS | 219.50 | 233.40 | 240.60 | 212.30 | 198.40 | 191.20 | 177.30 | Sell Signal |
| MENTHAOIL | 559.10 | 573.20 | 582.50 | 549.80 | 535.70 | 526.40 | 512.30 | Sell Signal |
| ALUMINIUM | 71.85 | 72.65 | 73.75 | 70.75 | 69.95 | 68.85 | 68.05 | Buy Signal |
| REFSOYOIL | 454.77 | 456.53 | 459.42 | 451.88 | 450.12 | 447.23 | 445.47 | Buy Signal |
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Sell RELIANCE TGT: 1592, 1580 SL: 1608
Buy RELINFRA TGT: 580,588 SL: 570
Sell ICICIBANK TGT: 374,368 SL: 384
BUY NF ABOVE 3122 SL 3042 TARGET 3221/3333
SELL NF BELOW 3042 SL 3122 TARGET 2940/2880
BUY BANK NF ABOVE 4300 SL 4250 TARGET 4350/4400
SELL BANK NF BELOW 4300 SL 4350 TARGET 4250/4200
STOCKS GAME-
BUY BALRAMCHIN ABOVE 50 SL 48 TARGET 52/54
BUY CANBK ABOVE 160 SL 155 TARGET 165/170
BUY CUMMINSIND ABOVE 180 SL 175 TARGET 185/190
BUY EDUCOMP ABOVE 2130 SL 2080 TARGET 2180/2230
BUY MAHALIFE ABOVE 130 SL 125 TARGET 135/140
BUY ORCHIDCHEM ABOVE 70 SL 65 TARGET 75/80
SELL BHARATFORGE BELOW 90 SL 95 TARGET 85/80
SELL FINANTECH BELOW 515 SL 525 TARGET 505/495
SELL POWERGIRD BELOW 95 SL 100 TARGET 90/85
SELL RECLTD BELOW 93 SL 98 TARGET 88/83
Games people play and we blog and talk about them. So sad! SEBI and NSE are nothing but a bunch of spectators watching the drama unfold right in front of them.
The fierce rally continues. We are now heading towards some solid resistances ahead. The previous tops at 3148, 3178 and 3298 are likely to be tested in this rally but this area can also be an ideal place to open fresh shorts in April and May. The current rally can go on for a few days more. The 14 period RSI has just touched 70.3 but as of today there is no sell signal and markets can remain overbought for a long time.
---------Nifty is trading in a rectangle on closing basis since 6 months.---------so level of 3150-3180 will be important resistance on closing basis.
---------India VIX closed at 36.93, up 33% suggests that volatility and uncertanty will be high in coming days.--Nifty April future premium converted to discount of 1 points so cost of carry decreased.
--Nifty open interest decreased by 108 lacs suggests long unwinding.
--New series begins with Put-Call Ratio of 1.6.
--implied volatility increased suggests instability.
--India VIX closed at 36.93, increased by 31% suggests instability and uncertainty.
--US markets closed in green.
--Asian markets trading mixed.
--Sgx nifty trading at 3070. (up 6)
Technical Outlook (27th March 2009)
As already mentioned yesterday "Nifty has given bullish breakout from a small pattern in hourly charts setting a target of 3050. On the other hand, decisive move below 2920 may wipe off 60-70 points of Nifty in couple of sessions. ". As we had mentioned yesterday that Nifty has given bullish breakout in hourly charts which can take Nifty to 3050-3100, Nifty opened with a positive gap & remained range bound for almost 4 hours before rising sharply to touch an intra day high of 3103 before settling at 3082, about 97 points above the previous close. The global markets were also in positive mode which triggered short covering towards the close of F&O settlement
As far as, extreme short term charts are concerned, Nifty has bullish target of 3175-3200 after it gave breakout from "Declining Channel" of last few weeks. However, it is extremely overbought & corrective decline to 2975 is not ruled out. In daily charts, Nifty has risen sharply from 2526 to 3103 in last 13 trading sessions which is also a Fibonacci number which can initiate corrective decline of 3-5 trading sessions before the rally is resumed.
As for as bar reversal in Daily charts are concerned, stocks like Satyam, Zee Ent., Siemens, IOC, Balrampur, Dabur, Core Projects, Ashok Leyland, NDTV have given "Upward Bar Reversal" while Akruti, DLF, Rel Capital, Suzlon, Indiabulls, ACC, Welspun, Power Grid, IDFC etc. have given "Downward Bar Reversal". Stocks like Havells, S Kumars, LITL, FACT, Deccan Chronicle, Sesa Goa, Aban Offshore, Orchid Chem, Tata Motors, Hind Oil. have shown spurt during the day with unusually high volumes.
Sector wise, most of the infrastructure, banking, financials, insurance, aviation, sugar, auto, power, shipping stocks were in limelight on renewed interest from FIIs & closed in positive territory whereas stocks like Akruti, Orbit, Ranbaxy, Welspun Guj., Mc Dowell, Escorts, India Infoline & DLF etc. closed in negative territory during the day. As far as, A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bulls in the ratio of 7:5 with 509 declines & 696 advances during the day.
Nifty - Another Target of 3075-3100 Achieved / Overbought in EST Charts
Most of the Short Term Targets achieved - Avoid Fresh Buying in Overbought Stocks
* UNITECH LTD. !
Target of 38-40 maintained-Use corrective declines for buying with SL
* TATA STEEL !
All indicators favor rise to 220+/Use corrective decline to 200 for buying with SL
* RPL !
Bullish but overbought-Corrective decline to 92 & 87 likely
* TATA MOTORS !
Strong bullish pattern in making-Close above 185 will target 240 in few weeks
* GMR INFRA !
Overbought in hourly charts-Corrective decline to 90 & 88 likely
* RELIANCE INDS. !
Target of 1700 maintained-Corrective decline to 1470 likely
* IDEA CELLULAR !
Bullish breakout in daily charts-Set to cross 58-60 in near future
* REL. INFRA !
Mildly bullish in EST charts-Likely to touch 585 in near term
* L&T !
Breakout from bullish pattern-Another close above 650 may target 720 in near future
* PNB !
Extremely overbought-Corrective decline to 383 likely
* SBI !
Hourly charts in favor of rise to 1140-Use pullback for buying with SL
* RENUKA SUGAR !
Target of 95 maintained-Use decline to 82 for buying with SL
* YES BANK !
Mildly bearish-Corrective decline to 51 likely
* BHEL !
Bullish breakout in daily charts-Buy on declines for target of 1650-1675 in near future
* TCS !
All set to cross 650 in coming weeks-Buy on declines till 535 with SL
* SREI INTL. !
Bearish pattern in making-Another close below 27.5 may target 23 in near term
* ABAN OFFSHORE !
Medium term target of 550 (Given at 310) maintained-Use every decline for buying with SL
* HDFC LTD. !
Overbought in hourly charts-Ripe for decline to 1475
* BRFL !
Bearish target of 124-112 maintained-Use every rise for profit booking only
* MARUTI UDYOG !
Highly overbought in daily charts-Corrective decline to 720 & 680 likely
* BAJAJ HIND. !
Bullish pattern in making-Move above 47 to target 54-55 in near future
* BALRAMPUR CHINI !
All indicators favor rise to 54-55/Buy gradually on declines with SL
* SIEMENS !
Target of 270 maintained-Use declines for buying with SL
| FRESH ADVISORY RECOMMENDATIONS | |
| Recommendations for 27.03.2009 |
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