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(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on huge gap down and drift lower on weak global cues close in red zone .For coming session nifty had close dot near support cracking below 2660 it can test 2580-2500 levels .On the other side 2790-2827 will act as resistances zone

(raman)

SHORT SELL Reliance Capital Stop Loss 345 Target 291

SHORT SELL Cairn India Stop Loss 170 Target 132

SHORT SELL Aban Offshore Stop Loss 305 Target 272

SHORT SELL SAIL Stop Loss 75 Target 62

(Rajandran)

Nifty is in a consolidation mood for the past 4 months. Its not in the mood to give its game neither to bulls nor to the bears. But what could be a possible technical reason for such consolidation's.

I took months charts of Nifty to explain such movements

Chart shown here is the 2 year monthly chart of Nifty




Thumb Rule:

There is a thumb rule that when ever there is a huge gap formation between the EMA line and the closing of the candlestick then the candle will more likely to move towards the EMA line. Which is clearly evident from the Nifty monthly charts as shown in boxes. Here I took 5 EMA line as my reference.

During the end of OCT 2008 the gap between the 5EMA line and the closing of the Nifty montly canlde is almost greater than 1000 points in nifty. From OCT 2008 onwards still nifty is striving to touch the 5 EMA line and it succeed in touching the line during the month of JAN 2009 which gives us consolidation type of appearence on the charts. And now the gap between the 5 EMA line(3028) and the Nifty monthly candle is (3028-2763= 265).

Also check out the charts for the duration between 1999-2002


And now the only question remain is will the 265 gap in nifty will be filled in this march or the gap will widen more. I have answer to only one question. If there is any such gap formation in this march then sure nifty will try to move towards the 5 EMA line once again which is a clear buy signal for the April 2009

Now its easy to relate 5 EMA line with Gravitational force. If the financial object tends to fall either side of the 5EMA line then the object should return towards the gravitational rope.

5- EMA Monthly chart for Auto Sector

There is a consolidation in nifty. But there is a huge runnup in auto stock for the past three months. It sounds little funny. But 5 EMA monthly chart for Auto Sector have suitable answer. Look this month we have to be very careful with Auto stocks

Hexaware and WWIL: Possibly a manipulated Technical Move





Hexaware and WWIL Both the stocks almost doubled in recent times in just few sessions.The big move caught market men off-guard and saw dealers desperately tapping into the market grapevine for clues. But now it is clear that the movement in Hexaware and WWIL possibly a manipulated technical move as per the 5-EMA Gravitational Concept

(Ilango)

Weekly macd turns down at the zero mark and the pattern resembles a continuation of the fall, the last speculative one, the 5th down.

Daily macd turns down below the trigger and in the negative zone. A fall below 1140 will result in breaking of the triangle pattern towards/below the earlier lows. A rise above 1350 will be bullish.

Hourly shows the last upward channel breaking down and then pulling back towards the channel & fall resuming. This fall has impulsive 5 sub waves. A move below 1200 will accelerate the fall. If any + ve cues, it can rally back upto 1320 and then may resume the downmoves.
It is a sell on rallies upto 1320 with a SL 1350. Watch its price behaviour around 1140 area.

(Ilango)

Nifty gapped down below the critical "2730" and also closed well below that. The daily trend which was just about managing to stay in uptrend has decisively turned down. Now all time cycles are in downtrend.
The last critical level is "2650-2660". Below that more falls can be expected.
Nifty stayed at S2-2681 for most of the day and broke through that in the afternoon signaling bearish trend. And closing below 5 day low ema confirmed it.







(Niftytrends)

In last post we have showed hooking of CCI when nifty was trading above 2900 and mentioned that below 2830 nifty will face selling pressure on every rise .

LATTEST NIFTY VIEW : As above charts shows thats nifty is trading in small range and trying to consolidate before taking any further voilent move . Some of indicators like elliot trigger is near zero line and cci hooking again .

BULLS WILL BE SAFE IF NIFTY TRADES ABOVE 2753 AND BREAKOUT 2828 LEVELS NOW FOR BREAK OUT FOR AT LEAST NEXT 200 POINT MOVE ON UPSIDE .So I would suggest bulls to wait for breakout .
BEARS are safe as long as Nifty trades below 2784( this level derived from intraday chart of nifty ).
MAJOR SUPPORTS FOR NIFTY SPOT : 2700 ,2660, 2628

MAJOR RESISTANCE FOR NIFTY SPOT :2753,2784,2828.



S S Cheema

Yes of course – bloody market is falling as hell and I am writing and willing it to keep going up. Did I get it so wrong? When and where do we go from here? Not too much lower – is my belief as always. I am perhaps hardwired to remain in a perpetual state of bullishness – not good at the moment but see we were holding the supports – weren't we? Imagine all indicators shouting Bear Bear and I take one bullish and I say bulls! bulls!

Now I have another bloody problem in my hand – see the markets have dropped and are now at another strong support level – 2660. What do I say? take a plunge by saying and crying that we go down and drop? Or we go up to some saner levels? Okay I will try and refrain till we see some charts and whatever I do see everyday…

The markets are simply blood red. If anyone spots green please do pm me – I am dying to get my eyes see green. Asia was – well red. Nikkei down 3.81%, Hang Seng down 3.86% and Strait Times down 3.85%. I assume you all know where we (our stalwarts ended). Europe is still blinking – red I meant. Though the markets have still not ended – I do not see any future for all of them. FTSE down 3.95%, DAX down 2.59% and CAC down 3.1%. We will see where they finally end – it will not be green I can assure you. US is breaking a lot of low records. Dow has broken the 7000 mark and is presently at 2.43% in red and looking down. Nasdaq is down 1.92% and S&P is down 2.59%. I refuse to take a call on where the markets will end.

Before I see the candles – the election dates have been announced and if we do not have some package now –there never will be till after the elections. The candle today was long and black. Only saving grace – stopped at 2660 low of Jan 23rd. Do we see it as a test of that low and get some support – or do we continue our journey downwards - only time will tell. The EMAs – 5 lower than 20, 20 lower than 50. Nothing seems to have changed. We are now hugging the lower of the Bollinger bands. Volumes are low, lower than yesterday – 69% of 50 Day average. ADX is showing that the fall today / or the negativity is gathering strength. MACD negative divergence has increased. RSI is bearish and Slow Stochastic has the red line going below the blue line. Bearish – so here I go today – nothing at all to support bullish theory for today.

See the day today? we started off below the S1 and then traded steadily above and around the 2700 levels. The selling that came around the last half an hour or so dropped the markets viciously below the 2660 level. It corrected – and helped with that adjustment at closing that helped to get the closing figure above the S2.

The S1 is at top of the chart at 2718 level. Still some signs of sanity that supports and resistances work?

The pivot levels for tomorrow are as under…

R3 2869 was 2866 yesterday
R2 2804
R1 2739
Pivot 2699 was 2752 yesterday
S1 2634
S2 2594
S3 2529 was 2639 yesterday
Projected High Range 2719 to 2771
Projected Low Range 2756 to 2704
Fib Projected High 2792
Fib Projected Low 2630

Please do take a pick as to where we are heading.

Okay I posted the charts of the Call build up in ICICI bank. Infact I kept running the software to see the options build up and in so many of the stocks (let us say 90% that I saw) there were only calls building up. I searched for an answer that was partially answered by Jaggu and partially by Wiki. Unfortunately I lost the page where I read it so I am conveying what I remember from my reading in the morning. To start with Wiki said that it is historically proven that 90% of the people who buy options are losers and the winners are generally the option writers. Now if that be so then the assumption is that the chances are extremely bright that the call writers are smarter. So when there is hope among the option (call/put) buyer for the market to take a particular direction – the market moves generally in the opposite direction. It means that I was wrong in assuming that since there are only call being written and traded in ICICI bank means that there is support at that level – infact it is exactly opposite of that and it was proved the way the ICICI bank fell by the closing. Well I learnt an important lesson today. It will prove handy in the times to come. you got it? Jaggu also said the same thing but in a more civilised manner really. Hell of a lesson for one day!

Best of luck to all for tomorrow’s trade. And before I pen off the results of the vote I conducted are as under: -

Where do we go from here?

Up- to 3300 levels – 2/35 vote

Remain more or less here only - 2/35

Down to 2500 levels – 6/35

Our Graves – 25/35

Manoj chopra

forecast

Market may open down with hugh gap. Market may down between 9.55 and 10.17. Market may steady or down side between 11.27 and 11.47. Market may close at down to previous closing.




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Opening Bell Call
Buy

Exit all long term Position Major support of Nifty 2660 was broke on 2nd March 2009

On 2nd March 2009 - The BSE Sensex closed at 8607 (Down 284 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 2,674 ( down 89 points).

Opening Bell Call
Sell

RPOWER - Reliance Power Limited
BANKINDIA - Bank of India
HINDUNILVR - Hindustan Unilever Limited
ICICIBANK - ICICI Bank Ltd
MARUTI - Maruti Suzuki India Limited
POWERGRID - Power Grid Corporation of India Limited
CAIRN - Cairn India Limited
INFOSYSTCH - Infosys Technologies Ltd.
ONGC - Oil & Natural Gas Corpn Ltd
TCS - Tata Consultancy Services Limited

Technical Analysis for 3rd March 2009

BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 8644, 8685, 8725, 8784, 8843, 8884, 8924, 8965
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 8585, 8526, 8486, 8445, 8386, 8327, 8268, 8209

NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 2699, 2719, 2739, 2772, 2804, 2824, 2844, 2864
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 2667, 2634, 2614, 2594, 2562, 2529, 2497, 2464

Manas

Finally a closing below 2690 levels, and could be a gap down tommorrow.

since the movements have been seen in last many sessions, so sl will also be small, and all positional shorts should have a sl of 2652 on closing basis with tgt 1 being 2565.

for intraday, trading below 2652, nifty will be weak, support exists at 2628-2601-2565 levels

resistence at 2652-2666-2680 levels

try and play short for the day till we trade below 2652

(NOORESH)

Although the charts are explanatory but not much time to write more observations as its too late tonight.

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View:

The level of 8500 on closing seems to be in danger now as Sensex has dipped below the 8600-8640 level which was holding in the last few dips as seen in the chart.

On a sustained closing basis 8500 remains important. On the short term 8300/7700 are immediate supports once it starts sustaining below 8600. Will look into long term charts in the coming posts.

In the last few major sell-offs the volumes were heavier in the index and index heavies but we are not seeing such volumes this time around. Also the price action would be bigger ( %terms ) and in smaller amount of time. This indicates the drift could be slower towards the lower zones till we dont see above observations being met.

Dow Jones :

PREVIOUS POST 1 --

PREVIOUS POST 2 --

In the last update had discussed that a break below 7750 would test the low of 7400 and odd and the next level is around 6700-6900 which is the downwards sloping channel. There should be some recovery from 6700-6800 or little lower then that back to 7k-7.4k roughly.

On the long term charts sustaining below 6400 there are no meaningful supports technically. The index has lost quite a bit in the last few weeks so bounce is highly probable from the supports.

(ss)

Sensex (top) closes below its January low and now eyes the crucial support at 8467.

Nifty (middle) manages to close just above its lowest January close and the Nifty Futures (below) closes below the Jan low.

The largest drop today was in the Defty at -5.7%. In a couple of trading days, we'll know whether the indices take support around these levels or go further down. In the Nifty fifty index, there are 24 stocks which dropped 3% or more. Reliance Infra -9%, Tata Steel -8% and ICICI Bank at -7% are the top losers and there is only one gainer M&M at 2.6%

(megha investment)