Once again market tanked on good news of repo rate cut. It is generally believed that when repo rate cut is announced it is admission by Govt that the economy is now good. In fact, traders now just hate with the word “Go Long”. Only one question comes what to sell. Janus is continued on selling free in stocks like HDFC and ICICI Bank along with RIL, R Com and Rel Infra etc.
Some claim that Janus selling is already is over and bears are opened a new battle front after Janus. My view which is yet not confirmed could it be a political funds getting out of market for election kitty. May be, rupee too indicate that where RBI intervention is not that aggressive. The intermittent upswing could on account of some inflows which are coming out of India for election. The view on rupee is also divided. Some experts claim that it is heading towards 54 and some to 48.50.
With most of the traders only on one side of the boat question of bottom fishing was suicidal for the tome being in A gr trading. As such Nifty too has come in the zone of 2500 where it had taken support post Oct crash. Naturally most of the experts on now betting on the fact that Nifty could easily breach 2500 and then could test 2200 intra day and some also believe that it has potential to test 1800 whether fundamentals warrant or not.
Sujana Tower has seen volume of 48 lac shares today which means after a wire channel broke the idea the counter has become active and allowing value pickers to provide exit route to FII who are on selling spree. Similar is the case with Evearredy but fortunately the stake FII had already came below 5% which is visible from the Cni report and hence that stock is close to bottom. In fact, investors should buy only stocks where there is no FII or the stake now become zero or close to zero. In the former case the same will be absolutely virgin stocks which will form the main stream of the next bull run whenever happens. In the later case these stocks will give good returns as FII generally sell stocks the Sujana way that is they make the top and bottom of the stock on either side. However, in the later case investors need to trade to reduce their cost to minus.
Hello Friends,
Nifty yesterday tested our higher resistance just by a point of 2664 & Res was 2666 & started falling from these levels. As updated earlier that 2666 level is last hope for the bulls in the short run & if we manage to close below this for 2 to 3 days then we may see markets falling by 5 to 10% in short run from 2666.
NifTiee Intra Day Levels:
Close 2577
Supports : 2555 / 2525 / 2480
Resistances : 2610 / 2630 / 2666
PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES IN RUPESS CRORES FOR 05 MARCH 2009 :
Fii -591
Dii +479
Fii(Deri)-294 (net)
Idx Fut +97
Idx Opt -438
Stk Fut -24
Stk Opt +72
Jayanta Mallick
Kolkata, March 5 Dalal Street saw as many as 160 stocks hit their year-low on Thursday. Seven of the 30-stock benchmark index- Sensex – touched the 52-week low and two others came perilously close to the year-low levels. HDFC, HDFC Bank, L&T, Ranbaxy, Reliance Communication, SBI and ICICI Bank were among the Sensex stocks, which touched their year-lows.
Day's low of Sun Pharma and Hindalco were close to their 52-week troughs. In the broader market, Suzlon Energy stock plummeted to an all-time low of Rs 35.20, down 7.97 per cent, while YES Bank tumbled to Rs 43.30.
According to analysts, substantial selling by FIIs was the principal reason for the current downward price movement. Market-wide turnover data suggests that FIIs have been clear net sellers since January 1. In March so far they have net sold equities worth Rs 2,407 crore. Though domestic investors including institutional investors have been buying, there is a clear gap between the net sale figure of FIIs and net purchases by the local players.
liquidity pressureObservers say shortage of liquidity in the overseas markets, particularly the US and European markets, has prompted selling assets in the emerging markets. However, not all fully blame liquidity pressure for the selling spree by the overseas investors. Mr Sourabh Mukeherjea, head of Indian equities at Noble group, told Business Line: "Much of the current offloading in India by foreign players is driven by fundamentals. Many investors are apprehensive of accounting practices and lack of disclosures by some Indian corporates. The state of economy in view of higher fiscal slippage and lower growth prospects has also led to reduction in exposures. Forthcoming election also prompted certain overseas investors to pare down investments in country."
According to Mr U.R. Bhatt, Managing Director of Dalton Capital Advisors, liquidity pressure is definitely an important factor. "But negative price actions and growing risk perception for the Indian equities have also played a significant role in the present sell-off."
Analysts with foreign funds and advisor also point out in the last three months some overseas funds have, however, been buyers in fundamentally strong but under-priced stocks. Noble has been advising its overseas clients to look into investment opportunities in 150 stocks out of the BSE 500.
Nifty :: Made an Engulfing bear candle pattern in today’s trade.. (May be this one is last bearish candle if next candle close above today’s real body low ) In initial trade Nifty try to hold double bottom support 2611 but unable to hold this support and once break it move down sharply up to strong multiple support zone.. For 6th Mar watch strong support zone in between 2550 to 2522, below it next strong support zone 2508 to 2500.. Our strategy for 6th March if open flat sell at high buy on deep, If open gap down watch two strong support zone and buy in deep (S.L 2460) Sell at high.Avoid shorting at lower level. Resistance for up move at 2611/2645/2661/2668.. Supports at 2550/2505/2480/2460 ..
I have been having a busy schedule in flying and that has kept me away from monitoring the markets for the last few days. Have I missed anything -- not really. Being a true Indian my idea about investments remains to be buying and keeping an asset in my hand. By nature like so many others the ultimate meaning for me to invest in the stock market is to buy, and not to sell. So as the market falls and the technical indicators point only towards sell, the market stop having any meaning for me. I will wait patiently till indicators go oversold and then I will take my pick. That by no means will be the end of woes but for once I would have scooped the stocks of my choice at the very bottom. There will be the times when we might test these bottoms again or there may not be such a time all the same I will buy in a short time to come. The second problem that comes to my mind is the choice of sectors. I would definitely spend some time over the next weekend and see what I desire. My choice may be wrong but I would rather live with that than to take the pick which is being given by the so-called market analysts. The yesterday Indian banking was the sector, today the same people are saying that it is the weakest sector one can ever think of in the present conditions.
Asia was not very bad when it started in the morning. There was a fair sprinkling of green in all the markets. We opened -- spent a few moments in the green and then fell to red never to look up again. Nikkei closed to the strongest up 1.95%, Hang Seng closed down 0.97% in red and the Straits Times closed down 1.66% in red. Europe had one of the worst days today. FTSE closed down 3.18% in red, Dax down 5.02% in red and CAC down 3.96% in red. US had opened in red and as of now shows no sign whatsoever of even looking up. It is the midsession now. DOW down 3.14%, NASDAQ down 2.92% and S&P 500 down 3.57%. If these are the global cues we are to open tomorrow with then I'm afraid the technicals will not matter too much in any case.
As far as the candles are concerned today was a huge black candle. It in the past the entire body of the white candle yesterday, so it can be technically taken as the third candle of ‘ three black crow pattern’. The Bollinger bands are expanding giving way for the fall to continue. 5 EMA is below the 20 E MA which is trailing well below the 50 EMA. Nothing bullish at all. The volumes were wee bit more than yesterday. The ADX is showing good strength to this downfall. On MACD the divergences on the negative side has increased. RSI is the Bearish. The only solace is that slow Stochastic has both red and blue line in the oversold territory. Mind you it has the capacity to stay here for another one to two sessions. So be prepared off another day or so of sell-off before we have any sort of relief.
So – let us lee the pivot levels for tomorrow ;-)
R3 2762 was 2765 yesterday
R2 2700
R1 2638
Pivot 2601 was 2640 yesterday
S1 2539
S2 2502
S3 2440 was 2515 yesterday
Projected High Range 2619 to 2669
Projected Low Range 2657 to 2607
Fib Projected High 2689
Fib Projected Low 2537
Two more charts before I pen off. One is the Put call ratio in Nifty and second is the option pain for this month.
BUY NF ABOVE 2550 SL 2450 TARGET 2650/2730
SELL NF BELOW 2550 SL 2650 TARGET 2450/2350
STOCKSGAME-
BUY CESC ABOVE 205 sl 200 TARGET 210/215
BUY FINANTECH ABOVE 445 SL 430 TARGET 460/475
BUY PATNI ABOVE 99 SL 96 TARGET 102/105
SELL ACC BELOW 525 SL 540 TARGET 510/495
SELL AMTEKAUTO BELOW 80 SL 84 TARGET 76/72
SELL BHEL BELOW 1280 SL 1300 TARGET 1260/1240
SELL GMRINFRA BELOW 70 SL 73 TARGET 67/64
SELL M&M BELOW 305 SL 315 TARGET 295/285
SELL MARUTI BELOW 660 SL 690 TARGET 630/600
SELL NTPC BELOW 172 SL 175 TARGET 169/166
SELL OFSS BELOW 610 SL 630 TARGET 590/570
SELL RELIANCE BELOW 1145 SL 1165 TARGET 1125/1105
SELL ROLTA BELOW 58 SL 62 TARGET 54/50
Here's a look at the absolute ATR values. The chart below is from Jan 2008 and the chart above shows the recent action. Currently, both the 20 day ATR (Green) and the 5 day ATR (Yellow) are below 80 which translates into 3% of the close at 2576 Nifty. The current volatility looks like peanuts compared to what we had in October '08 - the ATR was over 8% then.
Don't be in a hurry to buy Unitech - you may get it at one buck or even less! So much for real estate!
tentative wave counts are labelled as shown on the following chart:
earlier i had pointed out 3 sub waves in each up and down wave forming on nifty chart. current subwave C-5-(3)-i has tgt upto 2568/2506.
discl:sub waves labelling is tentative and ew analysis as such in general is speculative in nature, therefore should not be used for trading but useful for investment decisions.
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