RELIANCE : (1284.25)
Buy Above 1270 target 1- 1310, target 2- 1335, target 3- 1380, stop loss 1265
Sell Below 1265 target 1- 1242, target 2- 1229, target 3- 1200, stop loss 1275
RELCAPITAL : (310.05)
Buy Above 307 target 1- 319, target 2- 328, target 3- 337, stop loss 302
Sell Below 303 target 1- 296, target 2- 282, target 3- 274, stop loss 308
RELINFRA : (466.65)
Buy Above 465 target 1- 473, target 2- 480, target 3- 493, stop loss 460
Sell Below 463 target 1- 455, target 2- 445, target 3- 428, stop loss 470
RCOM : (146.85)
Buy Above 146 target 1- 149, target 2- 151, target 3- 164, stop loss 142
Sell Below 142 target 1- 139, target 2- 135, target 3- 131, stop loss 147
RENUKA : (78.45)
Buy Above 78, target 1- 80, target 2- 82, target 3- 86, stop loss 75
Sell Below 76, target 1- 73, target 2- 70, target 3- 65, stop loss 79
RNRL : (38.05)
Buy Above 38 target 1- 39, target 2- 40, target 3- 42, stop loss 36.50
Sell Below 37 target 1-35, target 2-34, stop loss 39
ABAN : (254.70)
Buy Above 250 target 1- 262, target 2- 271, target 3- 310, stop loss 244
Sell Below 245 target 1- 240, target 2- 228, target 3- 222, stop loss 252
ICICI BANK : (308.65)
Buy Above 306 target 1- 316, target 2- 325, target 3- 342, stop loss 300
Sell Below 303 target 1 - 296, target 2- 284, target 3- 273, stop loss 310
AXIS BANK : (329.90)
Buy Above 327 target 1- 341, target 2- 348, target 3- 365, stop loss 320
Sell Below 323 target 1- 315, target 2- 301, target 3- 285, stop loss 330
SBI : (953.05)
Buy Above 948 target 1- 964, target 2- 976, target 3- 1030, stop loss 935
Sell Below 940 target 1-931, target 2-923, target 3- 910, stop loss 948
SATYAM : (45.50)
Buy Above 46 target 1- 49, target 2- 53, target 3- 60, stop loss 43
Sell Below 45 target 1- 42, target 2- 39, stop loss 47
SESAGOA : (79.65)
Buy Above 79.50 target 1- 81, target 2- 83, stop loss 77
Sell Below 78 target 1- 76, target 2- 72, stop loss 80
STERLITE : (283.60)
Buy Above 280 target 1- 290, target 2- 303, stop loss 274
Sell Below 275 target 1- 269, target 2- 255, target 3- 245, stop loss 282
ONGC : (706.40)
Buy Above 702 target 1- 715, target 2- 728, stop loss 692
Sell Below 695 target 1- 682, target 2- 670, stop loss 705
MCDOWELL-N : (635.25)
Buy Above 635 target 1- 648, target 2- 660, target 3- 690, stop loss 620
Sell Below 625 target 1- 614, target 2- 590, target 3- 570, stop loss 638
EDUCOMP : (1767.40)
Buy Above 1750 target 1- 1845, target 2- 1910, stop loss 1730
Sell Below 1730 target 1- 1640, target 2- 1512, stop loss 1755
BHEL : (1371.35)
Buy Above 1375 target 1- 1383, target 2- 1399, target 3- 1450, stop loss 1355
Sell Below 1370 target 1- 1360, target 2- 1343, stop loss 1385
L&T : (615.20)
Buy Above 610 target 1- 628, target 2- 646, target 3- 670, stop loss 600
Sell Below 600 target 1- 590, target 2- 568, target 3- 540, stop loss 610
JPASSOCIAT : (70.85)
Buy Above 71 target 1- 73, target 2- 75, stop loss 69
Sell Below 70 target 1- 68, target 2- 66, stop loss 72
SUZLON : (34.60)
Buy Above 35 target 1- 36, target 2- 40, stop loss 33
Sell Below 35 target 1- 33, target 2- 29, stop loss 37
ROLTA : (42.80)
Buy Above 43 target 1- 45, target 2- 50, stop loss 41
Sell Below 40 target 1-37, target 2- 33, stop loss 42
Sensex : (8756.61) Today Sensex face resistance at 8910, if cross 8910 then goes up to 9082 . Sensex find support at 8630 if 8630 break then fall up to 8520 and 8330.
Nifty : (2719.25 ) Today Nifty face resistance at 2758, if cross 2758 then goes up to 2780 and 2798. Nifty find support at 2687, if 2687 break then fall up to 2647 and 2576.
For Nifty trader kept a eye on 2750 level, if 2750 level not cross then go short with a stop loss of 2772 for a target of 2624 and 2505.
Nifty daily chart can test the resistances trend line but RSI is facing resistances On lower side 2650 -2600 will act as support zone
The Indian market opened on gap up note and close with huge gains. For coming session nifty had broken the fallen channel and close above 2700 levels it can test 2756-2800 levels .On the lower side 2656 zone will act as support zone .
FIIs sold USD 13 billion worth shares in 2008 as against buying worth USD 17 billion in 2007. In 2009 so far, FIIs have sold another 2.2 billion dollars worth Indian stocks. Hence, the premise that India is a growth story and will always remains attractive investment destination for FIIs has proved wrong. In fact, FIIs had been, and will remain main drivers of domestic stock market. FII ownership in Indian stock market has dropped to 15.5%, a level last seen in Dec. '03. Sensex saw seven-fold rise from about 3000 to more than 21,000 between 2003 and early 2008. It was the biggest bull run in the history which saw 52% slump in 2008.
The premise that long term Equity will generate the highest return is also getting challenged. S&P 500 total returns index has now under-performed long term treasury bonds for 5 year, 10 year & 25 year periods. Even in India, long term returns have started falling. In Jan. '08, sensex had delivered 22% return (Capital appreciation plus Dividend) for a 10 year period. However, in Jan. '09, this average annual 10 year return has halved to 11%. Excluding dividend income, sensex has delivered 5.5% annual return in last 15 years. Return over 25 year period is still impressive at 15% but in this case, the base year 1984 is from pre-liberalization period representing an un-usually low base.
Even the premise that one cannot go wrong with blue chip companies is also under scanner. Scripts like Hindalco, Tata Steel and Tata Motors are trading at levels of 1991-1992. In other words, excluding dividend income, investments in these blue-chips have earned zero return in past 17 years. Bottom line is that, in order to make money in stock market, an intelligent investor has to be a smart investor as well as he must book profits regularly. Sleeping over blue chips names and indices may not be the right strategy. Globally, so many events take place that one man's meat is another man's poison and vice-versa.
Weekly Trend (16-03-2009 to 20-03-2009) Volatile and Mix
2500 / 2570-80 / 2605 / 2640 / 2665 [NIFTY SPOT : 2719.25] 2765-80 / 2810 / 2840 / 2900
7850-70 / 8270 / 8310 / 8450 / 8550 [SENSEX : 8756.61] 8950 / 9000 / 9135 / 9240 / 9480
2565 / 2590 / 2650 [NIFTY FUT : 2716.2] 2785 / 2850
3155 / 3395 / 3535 [BANK NIFTY : 3636.05] 3770 / 3900
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
NIFTY FUTURE
Trend : Volatile
Total OI of NIFTY FUT flat, NIFTY FUT up 4.12% last week. OI of NIFTY 2700 CE is down 19.82%
prices up 82.11% showing profit booking. OI of NIFTY 2800 CE is up 16.59% prices up 85.10%
showing buying. OI of NIFTY 2500 PE is down 16.26% prices down 71.72% showing short covering at lower levels. OI of NIFTY 2600 PE is up 29.61% prices down 66.22%, NIFTY 2700 PE is up 34.26% prices down 57.01% last week showing put writing.
We expect NIFTY SPOT to face Resistance near 2740-50 levels,Strong Resistance at 2770-80 levels.
On down side, NIFTY SPOT Support at 2640-50 levels, Strong Support at 2570-80 levels.
SECTOR WATCH
AUTO
Trend : Bullish
Total OI of ASHOKLEY FUT up 8.62% prices up 11.46%, M&M FUT up 9.33% prices up 8.89%, MARUTI FUT up 4.86% prices up 8.22% and TATAMOTORS FUT up 7.71% prices up 16.35% last week showing long positions build up.
We expect positive move in coming week.
WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION
Observation:-
->Total OI of NIFTY FUT flat, NIFTY FUT up 4.12% last week.
->Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 39 Stock FUTS closed positive, 8 Stock FUTs closed negative and 3 Stock FUTS closed flat last week.
->OI of NIFTY 2700 CE is down 19.82% prices up 82.11% showing profit booking. OI of NIFTY 2800 CE is up 16.59% prices up 85.10% showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 2800 CE is 55.54 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
->OI of NIFTY 2500 PE is down 16.26% prices down 71.72% showing short covering. OI of NIFTY 2600 PE is up 29.61% prices down 66.22%, NIFTY 2700 PE is up 34.26% prices down 57.01% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 2500 PE is 85.69 LK, highest OI in PUTs.
->Total OI of MAR series CALLs is down by 15.73 LK to 2.61 CR. MAR series PUTs is up by 39.28 LK to 3.64 CR last week. MAR series NIFTY PCR (OI) at 1.39.
Conclusion :-
NIFTY SPOT will face Resistance near 2740-50 levels, profit booking expected here. NIFTY SPOT Strong Resistance at 2770-80 levels.
Failed to cross 2790 levels, fresh shorts will be initiated.
On down side, NIFTY SPOT Support at 2640-50 levels. Below 2630 levels, next target will be 2570-80 levels. Stock specific action expected next week.
Technical & Fundamental Positional Picks
Buy VOLTAS @ 33/34.5,Sl 32,Tgt 36/38/40++
Buy ENGINEERS INDIA @ 415,Sl 430/445/455/470
ELECON ENGINEERING CO. LTD. (RS. 26/-, RS. 2/- F.V.):
This Gujarat based company is one of the oldest and biggest companies in the field of Material Handling Equipments (MHE) and Gears for Industrial purpose. MHE have wide applications across various industries including Power Plants, Fertilizer Plants, Mining etc.
Although company has a strong order book, yet share price has come down sharply due to fears of slowdown in future. However, company will be least affected by general economic slowdown because, User Industry (of MHE) like power sector, mining sector, continues to witness big investments which will ensure regular inflow of new orders for Elecon. This mid-sized Engineering Company is available at attractive valuations and hence the recommendation:
Financial Performance:(Rs. in Crores)
|
| Nine Month Ended | Year Ended | |
|
| 31.12.2008 | 31.12.2007 | 31.03.2008 |
| Gross Sales | 723.00 | 562.00 | 927.00 |
| Interest | 32.54 | 18.90 | 27.43 |
| PBT | 60.88 | 64.57 | 98.60 |
| PAT | 40.47 | 44.22 | 67.20 |
| Equity | . | . | 18.57 |
| EPS (Rs.) | . | . | 7.25 |
For Year Ended March 2008, company had reported EPS of Rs. 7.25 and stock is trading at 3.58 x FY08 EPS.
Future Prospects:
Some of the major orders received by the company are as under:
1. Order worth Rs. 400 Crores from Bramhani Industries Limited for supply of Plant and Equipment for Raw Material Handling System.
2. Order worth Rs. 120 Crores from Mundra Port & Special Economic Zone Ltd., Ahmedabad for supply of Design, Supply, Erection, Testing and commissioning of Material Handling System for West Port, Mundra Project Adani.
3. Order worth Rs. 72.40 Crores from Bharat Heavy Electrical Limited, Commissioning & PG test of Mechanical Equipment for 2X250 MW SIKKA TPS Project.
4. Order worth Rs. 31.24 Crores from Tecpro Systems Limited for supply of equipment for integrated coal handling Plant Unit 3 & $ for 2X300 MW Rosa Thermal Power Project.
5. Order worth Rs. 21.99 Crores from Adani Power Ltd. Mundra Ahmedabad for supply of Erection, Commissioning & Material Handling Systems for Adani Power Ltd. Mundra Project.
Despite fears of industry slowdown, its Order Book as on Dec. '08 has grown by 66%:
Valuations:
Current Market cap of the company is just Rs. 245 crs. and stock is trading at:
1) 3.90 x FY09E EPS.
2) 3.10 X FY10E EPS.
Promoters are increasing their stake through open market purchase at regular intervals which indicates that promoters are hopeful of bright future for the company. In boom times, engineering stocks were having P.E. Ratio of 20 to 40 times which, of course, irrationally is high. However, P.E. Ratio of 3 to 4 for a well established company with proven track record is also irrationally low. Scrip is available so low due to bad market conditions and extreme fears in the minds of the investors. We feel that, worse is almost over for this scrip and it is worth bottom fishing now. There are very strong chances that investments in Elecon can deliver minimum 50% appreciation in 2009. If, markets come in bullish mood, Elecon can deliver even 100% appreciation.
World Indexes , Commodity and Stocks Outlook
Dow Jones
Margin : 0.5%(approxx 33$ at cmp)
Trade Direction : Buy @ 6620 sl 6510
Trade Qty : Buy in multiple of 5
Targets : Start booking at 1st->6850,2nd->7020,3rd->7220,4th->7380,5th->7550
Nikkei
Margin : 0.5%(approxx .37$ at cmp)
Trade Direction : Buy @ 7000 NO SL
Trade Qty : Buy in multiple of 3
Targets : Start booking at 1st->7600,2nd->8000,3rd->8400
SPECIAL NOTE : Start accumulating Nikkei for new high in 3 yrs
FTSE
Margin : 0.5%(approxx 40$ at cmp)
Trade Direction : Buy @ 3600 sl 3520
Trade Qty : Buy in multiple of 3
Targets : Start booking at 1st->3720,2nd->3840,3rd->3990
Bank of America
Margin : 5%
Trade Direction : Buy @3.75
Targets : 4.8-6.75-8
Gold
Margin : 1%
Trade Direction : Short in 2 parts :@ 938 and 952 SL 1014
Targets : 918-902-890-840-760(Sounds unbelievable but true)
1) Ed. Serve Ltd. Rs. 60/-: In few days, scrip has already crashed from Rs. 147/-. It is reliably learnt that operators had taken IPO shares at Rs. 40/-. Huge volumes are taking place but BSE not shifting the scrip to 'T' category. Operators can resort to any trick (breaking the lower circuit, then taking it up) to lure gullible investors and then dump their remaining holding. Hence, investors are advised not to buy this scrip.
2) Maharashtra Polybutene Rs. 44/-: Scrip is slowly sliding down which shows that operator is trying to off-load his holding quietly. Don't buy. Sell even now as fundamentally this scrip is worth Rs. 5 - Rs. 7/-.
3) Winsome Yarn Rs. 8/-: Even though share price looks cheap, sell even now. Company has incurred loss of 10 crs. in Q3 and share price unlikely to go up.
4) Victory Projects Ltd. Rs. 15/-: Its name has been changed to TeleCanor Global Ltd. Some significant developments appear to be under way. Worth buying as downside appears very low.
5) Thermax Ltd. Rs. 150/-, Rs. 2/- F.V.: Despite slowdown, company has reported good results for Q3 with PAT of 72 crs. Last year, its share price had gone upto Rs. 900/-. Company has a strong and diversified basket of engineering products with enviable brand. Management is strong enough to withstand impact of ongoing recession. Investors looking for bottom fishing in Engineering sector can buy Thermax Ltd.
6) Eimco Elecon Rs. 105/-: After Q3, company has reported 83% rise in NP to 2.70 crs. So far, company is managing reasonable growth in its performance and should not be significantly affected by industry slowdown. Once economy takes a 'U' turn, this company can deliver strong results. Share price has almost bottomed out. Due to bad market, share price may not go up immediately but, worth buying for those who are doing bottom fishing of fundamentally sound companies.
7) India Bull Real Estate Rs. 90/-, Rs. 2/- F.V.: Share price is ruling so high because, company is debt free although its Q3 profit are just 7 crs. Scrip looks overpriced. Sell and buy Unitech in its place which is second biggest Realty Company in India.
8) India Bulls Finance Rs. 87/-, Rs. 2/- F.V.: Company had been showing good profits as it was raising interest-free funds through Equity placement and lending the same at 15% - 20%. Now, company will find it very difficult to get more free funds. Scrip is overpriced. Sell and buy Thermax in its place.
9) Twilight Litaka Pharma Ltd. Rs. 24/-: Q3 profits had come down as company had made provision for forex losses. Now, Q4 should be much better. Company has purchased an unlisted partnership firm. Purchase of this firm will improve its profits in 09-10 by atleast Rs. 5 crs. Further, company has been registered with ESI and, ESI will purchase its entire requirement of 5 medicines from Litaka from 1st April 2009 onwards. Buy more.
10) Hester Bioscience Rs. 79/-: Company is in the business of Chicken Vaccines. 2 years ago, company had come out with Rights Issue to increase its manufacturing capacity 4 times which gave an impression that there is huge demand for company's products. However, its sales continue to languish. It achieved topline of 32 crs. in 07-08. For 9 months ended Dec. '08, sales are just 22 crs. Instead of increasing, sales are decreasing in current year which indicates that company may be barely using its old capacity. We had pointed out earlier also that many promoters raise funds and go for capacity expansion to make money for themselves through overpricing of Plant and Machinery.
11) Modern India Rs. 115/-, Rs. 2/- F.V.: Equity is 7.50 crs. Q3 profit is 1.50 crs. from trading activities. Company has some land in Mumbai and wanted to raise money for developing the same. Hence, share price was being rigged up. Looking at down turn in Real Estate Sector, company not able to raise money. Share price likely to fall steeply. Sell even now as it can be Rs. 40-50 in few months.
12) Victoria Mills Rs. 1100/-: Share price is so high as some investors have a misconception that company has big land bank in Mumbai. However, at present, company is in the business of textiles only. Sell.
13) Taneja Aero Space Rs. 15/-, Rs. 5/- F.V.: Share price had gone upto Rs. 250/- last year. As per reliable sources, company will report superb results for 09-10. A riskfree buy at CMP which may give decent appreciation in next few months.
14) Rolta Ltd. (Rs. 42/-): Looking at the results so far, scrip looks underpriced. However, investors are advised not to buy, as there are doubts about genuineness of profit figures of the company.
15) Edelweiss Securities Ltd. (Rs. 240/-, Rs. 5/- F.V.): There are some talks in the market that promoters have sold some land in Alibagh (held in some other personal names, Benaami) to Edelweiss Securities for a fancy price. It may be another case of looting treasury of listed companies for personal gains. If, such reports are true, share price may tumble sharply. Sell even now.
16) JVL Agro (Rs. 48/-): Share price has come down heavily due to some distress selling although, company is likely to report good results for Q4 also. Full year EPS can be Rs. 48/-. Hold.
Daily Market Outlook: 16 Feb 2009
BSE Sensex: (9635):-The Support for the SENSEX is 9445 and the Resistance to the up move is at 9825.
Nifty: (2948):- NIFTY could possibly go to 3500 till the elections Hold nifty long with Stoploss of 2880 . Nifty range now is 2940-2960 till nifty close above 2920 we can see uptrend. If Nifty can cross 3100 then levels of 3480 and 3500 is what one can expect. In Nifty 2960 is strong resistance level now and if nifty consistence of level 2940 then it would mark a short-term uptrend and Nifty could even rally other 100-150 points.
Immediate Support for the NIFTY at 2900 and Resistance to the up move at 3000
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI up 3.02% with 16% decreasing volumes indicating forming of long positions for BTST.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.
NSE INDEX (C-2948.35) : Crucial Monthly levels for Nifty are 2955 and 3065 close above this level frequently can change trend ..Watch these levels
Resistance : 2980 / 3015 / 3040 / 3055 / 3080 / 3095
Support : 2935 / 2905 / 2865-55 / 2820 / 2790
BSE SENSEX (C-9634.74) : Buy on dips and exit before Thursday to prevent yourself from pre Budget volatility.
Resistance : 9710 / 9780 / 9825
Support : 9620 / 9550 / 9465-445
NIFTY FUTURE (C-2946.15) : MARKETS & SOME SPECIFIC STOCKS ON BUDGET EXPECTATIONS CAN BE VERY VOLATILE
Resistance : 2950 / 2975 / 3000
Support : 2925 / 2900
BANK FUTURE (C-4560.25)
Resistance : 4610 / 4660
Support : 4555 / 4505 / 4450
On Monday,Opening is Flat to Up,
Stay Long Above 2950,Sl Below 2930,Tgt 2980-3010-3025,
Sustain Below 2920,Sell with Sl Above 2940,Tgt 2905-2890-2865.
Buy ACC Above 580,Tgt 595-610-620,Sl 570
Buy HEROHONDA Above 930,Tgt 945-950-955,Sl 925
Buy RELCAPITAL Above 430,Tgt 440-450-470,Sl 420
Buy BALAJITELE Above 36,Sl 34,Tgt 40/43/45
Buy UNITECH Above 31,Sl 29,Tgt 33/35-37
Buy SBIN (1196) with Sl Below 1180,Tgt 1215/30/45
Buy Crompton Greaves Above 140,Tgt 145/50,Sl 135
Buy PFC Above 140
Buy POWERGRID Above 93
Buy AXISBANK Above 445
Sell TCS Below 510,Tgt 505-495-480,Sl 520
Sell HDFC BANK Below 940,Tgt 935-925-905,Sl 950
Sell BHARTI Below 650,Tgt 640-630-605,Sl 660
FEB FUTURES
Bharti (652.15) : Buy @ 645 as open with Sl 635 T 655/665/675
ONGC (703.8) : Buy @ 695/700,Sl 690,Tgt 705/10/20 ,If Sustains Above 710-715,Then Can Carry Forward As BTST
RIL (1391) : Buy @ 1375/80,Sl 1365,Tgt 1400/15/25
Buy SINTEX@ 120/120.5,Sl 117,Tgt 121.5/122.3/123/124.5/125.7/127/128/129 (Lot Size : 700)
Sell ABB @ 445/440,Sl 451,Tgt 436/434/429/425/421/417/412/408 (Lot Size : 250)
COMMODITY
GOLD APRIL: As long as gold holds 14300-14400 zones it will try and break 15000 for 15300-15500 zones. This week sellers will be there only a consolidated fall below 14450.Only a close below 14400 for two consecutive days will result in a weekly bearish zone.
Key prices to watch out this week: Rs.14325, Rs.14480 and Rs.14902.
MCX SILVER MARCH: Silver needs to close over 21700 for four consecutive days to target 22640 and 23650. In the next two weeks silver is bullish over 19935.
Initial support is at 20803.
MCX COPPER FEBRUARY: Double bottom has been formed at 150 which suggest that copper can rise to 185-190 zone in the next two weeks as long as it holds 150 zone. If copper does not break 185 by 10 of March then it will back to 150 and 138 and below. Initial support is at 164.10.
MCX CRUDE OIL MARCH: 1974 is the key support.Crude need to hold 1974 to be in Bullish zone.
Key resistances: 2127, 2237, 2386.
MCX ZINC FEBRUARY: Zinc has been trading in 54-59 zones. This zone will be broken soon. We prefer a buy on sharp dips strategy as long as 49 hold.
Pivot point/key level: 56.50 and 58.50
MCX LEAD FEBRUARY: Lead has been trading in 53-59 range. This range will be broken soon. We prefer a buy on sharp dips strategy as long as 49 hold.
Pivot point/key level: 57.40 and 59.80
MCX NICKEL FEBRAURY: Nickel needs to break 543 to be in bullish zone. However we prefer a buy on dips strategy as long as 475-480 zones holds.
| Technical Levels for 16 February 2009 | |||||||||
| Symbol | Expiry | RES 1 | RES 2 | RES 3 | Pivot | Sup 1 | Sup 2 | Sup3 | Signal |
| GOLD | 4-Apr-09 | 14646.67 | 14664.33 | 14680.67 | 14630.33 | 14612.67 | 14596.33 | 14578.67 | Sell Signal |
| SILVER | 5-Mar-09 | 21392.33 | 21430.67 | 21464.33 | 21358.67 | 21320.33 | 21286.67 | 21248.33 | Sell Signal |
| LEAD | 27-Feb-09 | 56.22 | 56.28 | 56.37 | 56.13 | 56.07 | 55.98 | 55.92 | Buy Signal |
| COPPER | 27-Feb-09 | 166.87 | 167.63 | 168.77 | 165.73 | 164.97 | 163.83 | 163.07 | Buy Signal |
| NICKEL | 27-Feb-09 | 507.10 | 508.60 | 510.20 | 505.50 | 504.00 | 502.40 | 500.90 | Buy Signal |
| CRUDEOIL | 13-Mar-09 | 2078.33 | 2085.67 | 2091.33 | 2072.67 | 2065.33 | 2059.67 | 2052.33 | Sell Signal |
| ZINC | 27-Feb-09 | 55.80 | 55.95 | 56.20 | 55.55 | 55.40 | 55.15 | 55.00 | Buy Signal |
| NATURALGAS | 20-Feb-09 | 217.00 | 217.60 | 218.00 | 216.60 | 216.00 | 215.60 | 215.00 | Sell Signal |
| MENTHAOIL | 28-Feb-09 | 521.77 | 524.63 | 526.77 | 519.63 | 516.77 | |||
Yes – as we had expected and I had written about in the last update on my blog – we did close at the highest point for the day. Yes there was a strong apprehension in my mind that being a Friday we may have a closing that might pull us down – but like I had expected some time ago – that the recovery – whenever it comes will be forceful. How long or how high is open to speculation. The highest expected is 3800 on Nifty – and please for GOD’s sake do not brush this away – it has a substance. The second level that is being talked about is 3400 – and finally the last level that is being talked about is the 2900 level. Whichever level we go too – remember the level yet to be crossed will most likely to be a resistance and once crossed – a support. 
Let us now move away from the dream world and see the near future. On the Global cues – Asia celebrated the continued rise of US indices and Nikkei closed 5.15% up, Hang Seng up 4.37% and Strait Times up 5.62%. Europe opened well and tried to test higher highs – but was some how not confident – finally ending mixed to flat with a upward bias. FTSE was 1.12% up, DAX 0.07% in red and CAC up 0.42%. US too was indecisive really – opening flat, going green and dropping red and finally ending green. DOW closed up 0.75%, Nasdaq up 0.38% and S&P up 0.77%. The markets in US have rallied on an average 10% and that is a great bloody thing. The markets had turned oversold.
Coming to the candles, the candle that was formed on Friday was white and actually beautiful. It has been so long since we have seen a candle this beautiful.Another white candle on Monday can change the short term outlook – but the point is IF we close green. We are still not the middle of the Bollinger bands and that is the reason I am confident that we have a chance with this kind of momentum. 2765 is the next resistance that I expect to be touched but not breached.That level also corresponds to somewhere the middle of Bollinger bands – and that is where ideally we should take a breather – a couple of days. 5 EMA is trying to look up and cross the 20 EMA and that is good news. Volumes were – let us say average. ADX down swing has lost strength. But mind you it still favours the bears. The MACD divergence has reduced significantly. RSI – going by what I explained in the presentation day before – will give us a day or so of upswing. It looks good at the moment. Slow Stochastic are oscillating in favour of the bulls. TRIX is flat – that is good in the sense that it is an leading indicator and gives us some relief.
Let us lee the pivot levels for tomorrow ;-)
R3 2836 as compared to 2718 on Friday
R2 2797
R1 2758
Pivot 2687 as compared to 2612 on Friday
S1 2648
S2 2577
S3 2538 as compared to 2506 on Friday
Projected High Range 2722 to 2777
Projected Low Range 2674 to 2619
Fib Projected High 2755
Fib Projected Low 2586
I wish all the best for the trading on Monday and am sure that those who had kept the longs will benefit. Hedge your longs and do not throw them away – you just don’t know how long or how much up this swing will take us.
I have lately started relying on the options data also so here we go…
Market may open up. Market may up between 10.27 and 10.58 Market may steady or up side between 12.35 and 12.17. Market may close at up to previous closing.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS
Opening Bell Call
Buy
RELIANCE - Reliance Industries Ltd
RPL - Reliance Petroleum Limited
IFCI - IFCI Limited
RNRL - Reliance Natural Resources Limited
INFOSYSTCH - Infosys Technologies Ltd.
On 13th February 2009 - The BSE Sensex closed at 8,756 (up 412 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 2,719 (up 101 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
CHAMBLFERT - Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd
INDIABULLS - Indiabulls Financial Services Limited
RCOM - Reliance Communications Limited
DENABANK - Dena Bank
NEYVELILIG - Neyveli Lignite Corporation Limited
Technical Analysis for 16th February 2009
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 8676, 8775, 8873, 8931, 8989, 9088, 9186, 9284
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 8618, 8560, 8462, 8363, 8305, 8247, 8188, 8130
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 2687, 2723, 2758, 2778, 2797, 2833, 2868, 2904
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 2668, 2648, 2613, 2577, 2558, 2538, 2519, 2499
Cairn seems a small breakout on short term charts. The stock can give a small move to 175-184 in short term if continues to hold above 160. Buy on dips to 163-166.
Bharti has given a breakdown on short term charts below 570.Any re-test to those levels can be shorted with a stop of 595 or short on break of 545 for a target of 510 or lower.
NTPC may be the next stock to crumble under the pressure. If sustains below 168-170 zone can expect it to touch 160-155 zone in quick time.
Infosys has come back to the resistance zone of 1300. Previous tops around 1320-1330 range. A speculative trade would be to short with a stop of 1330.
Jindal Steel and Power and Jaiprakash associates look set for a small positive move of 5-10 % but difficult to trade though...
Looking at the fantastic performance by the Nifty Fifty stocks, there is no doubt that the big move on Friday is likely to continue further up. On the daily chart above, there is a good trend line break and Nifty will now target the upper Bollinger band.
Reliance continues to remain inside its 3 month range but the recent fast rise on the daily chart above is telling me that it's going to breakout above the 1400+ mark, thus taking the whole market with it. Yes! Do it!
Here's a look at Tata Motors which has gained 16.62% last week. The daily chart above shows volume spikes above the 50 day average volume (yellow line over volume) The weekly chart below shows a 10 week (corresponding to 50 day on the dailies) average of volume. Looking at the increased volume activity and a sideways movement, probably the stock is hammering out a bottom here. The stock can be bought targetting the upper resistance at 180-190.
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