NEWSLETTER

This is the 9 day from the low of 2531.Yesterday the market opened and rallied ,but could not sustain.The current doji is shooting star with the gap up from the previous real body.This two line pattern warns of impending top.If Nifty open below the low of the shooting star then ,bulls has lost their upper hand .Then in nifty short within the range of with 2932-2935 stop loss 2938 and a target of 2924,2915.

Bajaj Auto has been in the uptrend since december 2008.The current uptrend has a support of 8sma ,followed by support of 25sma&50sma and 100sma as well.But the stocastics have given bearish cross over in the overbought zone.The current candle is shooting star ,which implies the uptrned may get capped.Short within the range of 587-585 with a stop loss of 590 and a downtarget of 581 and 578.

Bharat petroleum has been in the downtrend with the rise in the crude prices .The current bullish belt hold line candle has support of 8sma .The stocatics have also given bullish crossover in the over sold zone,if close of current candle perists then buy within the range of 349-351 and a stop loss of 347 and an upward target of 355-357.

Educomp solution has given a current candle of shooting star ,which warns of an impending top.Short within the range of 2050-2052 with a stop loss of 2053 and an downward target of 2047-2044.Stocastics have given bearish cross over in the overbough zone .The current candle has a cursory support of 100 sma.

After a rise of 9 days the shooting star ,which is the current candle may try to spoil the moods of the bulls.Stocastics have given bearish cross over within the the over bought zone.The current shooting star has a support of 8sma & 25sma but resistance of 50sma.Short within the range of 350-353 and a stop loss of 355 and a downward target of 346-342.

Infosys technologies has been inching upward slowly and steadly.The current bearish belt holdline has given breakout on the upside from a downtrend line.Buy within the range of long 1320-1323 with a stop loss of 1317 and an upward target of 136-1330.Though the stocastics have given bearish cross over in the overought zone,due to breakout it may attempt to remain above the downtrendline .

Rpl is up due to news flow & the rising crude prices.The current candle has given a breakout above uptrendline of a symmetrical triangle.If 89 is not broken then buy at 90 with a stop loss of 87 and an upward target of 92-94.

(ambardekarsuchita@gmail.com)

BSE Sensex
The week of 16/03/2009 -20/03/2009 was the week in which BSE Sensex crossed the uptrend line of the descending channel.The breaking out of descending channel on the upside came on the day of 16/03/2009.The real issue is now whether the breakout sustains and leads to a rally.Of Course BSE Sensex is still to be said technically in the side-ways,congestion band of 8500-9500.

As anticipated from Friday 06/03/2009,when piercing line trend reversal candle pattern was identified.The market gave way to swift rally of almost 650 points, touching the uptrend line of the descending channel at 8756 on a tall bullish belt hold line candle in the week of 09/03/2009-13/03/2009. BSE Sensex sustained from 16/03/2009 -20/03/2009 to give further rise in last week of about 350-400 points.So now the rise from low of 8110 on 05/03/2009- to a high of 9120 on 18/03/2009 is a 1000point rally.

" If BSE Sensex convincingly breaks out of descending channel on the upside with a volume ,then bulls may get upper hand." has come true.

Now in the current week from 23/03/2009 the real fireworks can be anticipated in BSE Sensex .The bulls and bears tussle will reach it,s frenzy ,since breakout has lead to furious change in picket fending by both bulls & bears.

BSE Sensex Daily Chart Till 20/03/2009

Structure Of Sensex
Since low of 7700 in November 2009, Higher tops & Higher bottoms structure was seen in the daily chart.Structurally from January 2009 again it has given way to Lower tops & Lower bottoms.Unless BSE Sensex crosses or breakouts from descending channel .Uptrend or upward rally is a suspect.
Sideways struture has both (Higher Tops-Higher Bottoms,Lower tops - Lower bottoms).Whether the bulls will triumph or it will be just a flash in the pan needs to be seen.

Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
Currently in the Daily chart the KST momentum indicator is in the oversold zone just below the median line or zero line.It has given a bullish cross over ,hence this 1000 odd points rally .But unless KST convinvingly crosses median lineor zero line on the upside,tone of market can be assumed to be bearish only..
Note

"The KST was in overbought zone most of the time in the trending market of 2005-2007.But in the daily BSE Sensex chart shows that since fall in January 2008 ,the KST indicator broke the zero line from the upside and migrated to south- oversold zone.Since January 2008 KST Indicator has been in oversold zone.At every rally in the BSE Sensex KST indicator briefly touches the zero line or equilibrium line ,but again fall back to form new trough in the oversold zone.This phenomen is indicated in the Daily Sensex Chart with down arrows,in earlier BSE Sensex Posts."

BSE Sensex Daily Chart Highlighted Till 20/03/2009

Volume
The volumes From November 2008 to January 2009 are descent,they look more of accumulation .But accumulation can be authenticated on the descent rally.On 10/02/2009 highest volume was seen.February 2009-March 2009 volumes are less then previous months.

Trendline
Since high of 21206,in January 2008 ,a clear descending channel is seen in the above daily chart of the Sensex.BSE Sensex attempted touching this descending channel on the down side on 28/10/2008.On other 4 occasions BSE Sensex tried to breakout of on the upside of descending channel -16/05/2008,12/08/2008,05/09/2008,12/02/2009 & now currently on 16/03/2009.But every time after breakout BSE Sensex fell down and resumed its, bearish downward journey.
"Currently BSe Sensex has crossed the uptrend line of descending channel.If this week remains positive ,then BSE Sensex may try to breakout of descending channel at 8900.The up target of this descending channel is around 9100."This has come true and it did breakout--but to sustain the breakout is the main question.

Moving Averages
In the daily chart BSE Sensex the current doji candle is at 34ema while it has support of 13ema & resistance of 50 sma.If upward rally continues then it may try to touch 50sma and 100 sma respectively .Bse Sensex had briefly touched 100sma on 12/08/2008 previously.
Sensex Key Support Level-- --- 8825, 8899, 9021.

Sensex Key Resistance Level----9126, 9286, 9420 .


BSE Sensex Weekly Chart Till 20/03/2009

The last weekly candle was a small bullish candle like a star with a weekly closing of 8966.The high of the last week was 9120.With three weeks of descent support at 8257,8770,the BSE Sensex may face resistance below the descending weekly channel at 9400.
In the Above Sensex Weekly Chart also seen is ,that since high in January 2008,sensex has been trading in weekly descending channel.In October 2008 sensex broke out of descending channel signalling exhaustion and since then has been trading side ways.Below this sideways trading has given to formation of symmetrical triangle
The symmetrical triangle highlighted in the BSE Sensex weekly chart is often referred to as side-ways or consolidation pattern.It means before embarking upon any trend ,it is breather period.Again Triangle being continuation patterns they also have measuring implications.

For purpose of clarity ,we will consider 9638 as area of breakout,we shall do calculations...

The base of the triangle is (High 11870-Low 7700) = 4170.Also now it may be assumed as per the current weekly structure that the target from breakout should be considered to be a bearish scenario.
So the target from breakout will be (breakout area-9638 - 4170)= 5468....in case of bearish scenario.!!!!
In the weekly chart momentum Indicator KST is still in the oversold zone but have given bullish Cross over in the oversold zone.Hence an extended up move may come.But still the general tone can still said to be bearish in the BSE Sensex.

BSE Sensex Monthly Chart Till 20/03/2009

The March is about in end in the next week .The current monthly Candle is Hammer.After a prolonged down move ,we have a hammer.In the BSE Sensex monthly chart the sensex has support at 100sma which is at 8155 & 50 sma is at 12176 .The Dynamic triangle may take support on the downside on the horizontal trend line 3.All the 5 bar of bearish candles.What this candle pattern does in monthly chart needs to be seen.If downtrend persists then sensex may take support on the horizontal trend line 3 is at 7800. Again as retreated that bull market or bull trend cannot said to be over for long term till monthly uptrend line2 drawn from low from year 1981 gets broken.
In the monthly BSE Sensex chart all the Momentum Indicators or Oscillators are said to be in very over sold zone.Oscillators are not given any indication of by forming any patterns or divergence.

PREPARE FOR ANOTHER VOLATILE SESSION


Sensex : (9471.04) Today Sensex face resistance at 9525, if cross 9525 then goes up to 9646 and 9822. Sensex find support at 9348, if 9348 break then panic selling started and Sensex fall up to 9226 and 9050.

Nifty : (2938.70) Today Nifty face resistance at 2957 and 2970, if cross 2970 then goes up to 3000 and 3060. Nifty find support at 2895, if 2895 break then fall up to 2853 and 2807.

Nifty March Futures closed at 2937.65 (Rs 1.05 Discount) with a turnover of Rs 13798.18 crores. Sheds 3526400 shares (-16.27 % ) in open interest, bringing down the open interest to 18146900 shares.
For Nifty Traders if Nifty unable to cross 2970 then short near that level with a stop loss of 3000 for a target of 2895.

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on gap-up note but not able to sustain above 3000 levels and saw profit booking at higher levels . For coming if nifty open gap down and trade below 2895 it can test 2859 zones and trading above 2976 it can test 2997-3026 levels .

(raman)

SELL Educomp Solutions Stop Loss 2115 Target 1810

SELL Reliance Communications Stop Loss 169 Target 134

SELL ICICI Bank Stop Loss 367 Target 328

SELL DLF Stop Loss 178 Target 140

Axit D ShahHello Friends,

All Views updated on Charts above.

(Ilango)

Nifty has retraced the last fall from 2970 to 2539 in shorter duration, indicating a first signal of a possible trend reversal. This helps in looking at the fall as profit booking or a correction to the sharp rise. Retracement of 0.236 @ 2904; of 0.38 @ 2835; 0.50 @ 2778 and 0.6182 @ 2721 and an "a-b-c" form in the correction to be looked out for. During this correction, Nifty can go past 3017 as a "b" wave too. Nature of correction and the volume will guide us through this phase. So a broader trading range of 2780 to 3020 may play out in the coming days.
For the day the range may be 2860/2885 to 2955/3000

There

RAJAN BHATIA)

Markets pleased to deceive..(OPEN TO CLOSE WAS NEGATIVE)Despite of all bullish calls, I had given reaction levels around 3020 zone for targets of 2880-2850.. lets see where we reach below 2930..The unwinding in a vertical line was expected with this ride up in one direction....Hope people had booked all longs ...as markets were overbought and waiting to react..where does it go from here..settlement will be volatile stay with the trend

(sharemarket.saudagar)

NIFTY ABOVE 2968 TOLD U DONT REMAIN SHORT LEVELS ARE 3031 3079- 3168..........AB RIL 1444 WE GIVEN LEVEL MAJOR LEVELS 1559 1601....बोलता मंदिवालो होलीडे पे जानेका

S S Cheema

It would have been otherwise a fairly good day, after all the global cues all green again for some reason as we move across 3000 which would not sustain their and started to lose ground. The market ended up fairly bearish after a bout of profit booking. However the banks related to the ADR performance were up HDFC 2.33% ICICI bank up 2.44% and HDFC bank 6.31%. And can you beat it FIIs provisionally bought 501.76 Cr worth and the DIIs sold 192.99 worth.

The global markets are with Asia, closing all in green, Nikkei up 3.32%, Hang Seng up 3.44% and Straits Times after 2.54%. It was Europe that doubted this upswing, did not have the trust enough. So, after opening in green, it slipped down towards the flat line with FTSE ending 1.05% in red, Dax just 0.26% green and CAC 0.17% green. The US started its day, deep in red, but is showing signs of recovery. The US markets are asked. The midsession, and as of now, Dow is 0.27% down. NASDAQ, 1.12% in red and S&P 500 0.44% in red.

The way the day started -- it could have been another day that could have ended with 100 points upswing. But that was not the way it was forced to be the markets thereafter started falling almost ending at the flat line. Ideally I would have defined this candlestick as a gravestone doji. Why I hold back classifying it as a perfect Doji is the fact that the closing on adjustment basis has been a few points worth of white body. In any case as of now we are trailing the upper Bollinger band. The five EMA has crossed over both the 20 Ema and the 50 Ema. Frankly, I would have given a few days worth of time more for this to happen. But then, like I always say the markets never asked me or asked for my opinion. The volumes have been high -- 134% of last 50 day average. The ADX has suddenly turned sides, and I do not speak with any doubt now that it is on the side of the bulls. The MA CD is bullish, with a good healthy bullish divergence. The RSI, though, looking bullish, has stopped its further climb. The slow stochastics are where they were yesterday and day before and day to day before – overbought. The TRIX is looking up.

Let us see the Pivot data for tomorrow.

R3 3120 against 3091 yesterday
R2 3059
R1 2998
Pivot 2856 against 2898 yesterday
S1 2895
S2 2853
S3 2792 against 2705 yesterday
Projected High Range 2977 to 3029
Projected Low Range 3005 to 2953
Fib Projected High 3045
Fib Projected Low 2885

The markets are surprising everyone so the next level that I would watch out for is 3081 that as per me is the upper band and I really do not expect a breakout above this level for the time being – but then who can tell. If we fail to reach that level and start a downward journey then we are going back below 2600 level for sure.

Take a look at the option data and you will do well to go on to compare the charts with that posted on 23 Mar 09.

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

The market made a top around 9699 which is close to the previous tops of 9725 and 9695 .. So this top is almost the third time in the last few months. This level becomes important for any further upsides.

The current upmove has left two gaps at 9000-9040 and 8440-8480 whereas todays gap up move has already been filled. These are important support levels in the next few weeks.

Stocks to watchout for :

Lot many flop trades today as none of the speculative counters stayed up IDBI , IOB and RNRL hit stops and seems a false breakout .... Seems we need to wait for a clear trend for next trades as last 1 week have got some stop hits.

ABB

The stock has not participated in the index pullback. The stock might give a bounce back if stays above 355-365. Risky players can buy to 365 with a stop of 350 for a tgt of 400-410.

Siemens

The stock seems to have given a small breakout on short term charts. Buy on dips to 230 with a stop of 220 for a pullback move to 250+.

The above trades can be initiated provided Sensex holds above 9000-9100.

RELIANCE : (1452.45)

Buy Above 1458 target 1-1471, target 2-1490, stop loss 1450
Sell Below 1450 target 1-1436, target 2-1414, target 3-1350, stop loss 1462

RELCAPITAL : (341.05)

Buy Above 355 target 1-369, target 2-375, stop loss 337
Sell Below 337 target 1-325, target 2-310, target 3-274, stop loss 353

RELINFRA : (508.30)

Buy Above 520 target 1-532, target 2-562, stop loss 510
Sell Below 510 target 1-492, target 2-475, stop loss 525

ONGC : (779.20)

Buy Above 790 target 1-820, target 2-840, stop loss 777
Sell Below 777 target 1-747, target 2-730, stop loss 790

ICICI BANK : (355.45)

Buy Above 361 target 1-369, target 2-382, stop loss 350
Sell Below 355 target 1-346, target 2-337, target 3-325, stop loss 365

INFOSYSTCH : (1320.75)

Buy Above 1332 target 1-1350, target 2-1379, stop loss 1320
Sell Below 1320 target 1-1300, target 2-1281, target 3-1250, stop loss 1335

ABAN : (329.60)

Buy Above 335 target 1-340, target 2-351, stop loss 330
Sell Below 330 target 1-322, target 2-316, stop loss 337.

AXIS BANK : (371.95)

Buy Above 381 target 1-392, target 2-413, stop loss 370
Sell Below 377 target 1-358, target 2-341, stop loss 385

SBI : (1032.25)

Buy Above 1048 target 1-1069, target 2-1086, stop loss 1035
Sell Below 1040 target 1-1012, target 2-987, stop loss 1052

STERLITE : (326.40)

Buy Above 330 target 1-337, target 2-348, stop loss 325
Sell Below 328 target 1-318, target 2-311, target 3-290, stop loss 337

EDUCOMP : (2053.80)

Buy Above 2080 target 1-2125, target 2-2185, stop loss 2060
Sell Below 2060 target 1-2048, target 2-2003, target 3-1965, stop loss 2080

MCDOWELL-N : (646.65)

Buy Above 655 target 1-677, target 2-707, stop loss 645
Sell Below 645 target 1-623, target 2-603, stop loss 655

BHEL : (1443.70)

Buy Above 1445 target 1-1468, target 2-1489, stop loss 1430
Sell Below 1440 target 1-1417, target 2-1400, stop loss 1455

BHARTI AIRTEL : (603.70)

Buy Above 608 target 1-620 target 2-626, stop loss 600
Sell Below 600 target 1-592, target 2-581, stop loss 612

L&T : (607.85)

Buy Above 613 target 1-623, target 2-639, stop loss 605
Sell Below 605 target 1-597, target 2-590, stop loss 615