Last Week Very boldly and clearly told u all that if index crosses 14678 then it may touch 14827 and if nifty future crosses 4437 then it may touch 4488………But on Monday index had touched a high of 14672.69 and came back. Nifty future also cant able to cross 4437. Further for down side we had told u that if Index breaks 14136 then it may touch 14032 and if nifty future breaks 4252 then it may touch 4198……… Look what happened …On Thursday Index had touched a low of 14002.43 and nifty future h ad touched a low 4208.10. …….
Since last 3-4 months we are giving predictions of index and nifty future. We are almost hitting our most of the index and nifty future targets even though so much of negativity and volatility. Our all paid clients are enjoying and getting huge profits even in this kind of markets also. U can also join us for our paid services which includes these all.
Last week , from our stock future, weekly future and delivery based recommendation has done well in the early time of week, but then as per our level market has not crosses 14678 and slides….
Due to global weakness, we may see lower opening on Monday. But u can buy at lower levels with appropriate levels and stoploss.
Please Note Our New Number Now onwards : 090990 10827.
| Above 14673 it may touch 14747,14825,14962,15094..Below 14355 it may touch 14200, 14065 | ||||||
| Above 4396 it may touch 4438,4488,4526…..Below 4290 it may touch 4218,4186……… | ||||||
| BSE Index Prediction for Week (01.09.08 To 05.09.08) :- | ||||||
| Index | Closing Price | Support | Stoploss | Target 1 | Target 2 | Target 3 |
| BSE | 14564.53 | 14355 | 14200 | 14747 | 14825 | 14962 |
| Nifty Future's Prediction for Week (01.09.08 To 05.09.08):- | ||||||
| Index | Closing Price | Support | Stoploss | Target 1 | Target 2 | Target 3 |
| Nifty | 4370.55 | 4290 | 4218 | 4396 | 4438 | 4488 |
| Nifty Future's Hot Scripts for Week (01.09.08 To 05.09.08) :- | ||||||
| Sr.No. | Company Name | Closing Price | Support | Stoploss | Target 1 | Target 2 |
| 1 | Balrampur Chini | 93.20 | 91 | 88 | 98 | 104 |
| 2 | IFCI | 45.15 | 43 | 41 | 49 | 54 |
| 3 | Rel Infra | 1000.65 | 987 | 974 | 1034 | 1078 |
| 4 | Century Textile | 472.35 | 466 | 459 | 486 | 499 |
| 5 | Escorts | 82.20 | 80 | 78 | 86 | 90 |
| Weekly Trading's Hot Scripts for Week (01.09.08 To 05.09.08) :- | ||||||
| Sr.No. | Company Name | Closing Price | Support | Stoploss | Target 1 | Target 2 |
| 1 | Hotel Leela | 32.45 | 31 | 29 | 35 | 39 |
| 2 | R Power | 158.00 | 156 | 154 | 164 | 171 |
| 3 | Sesagoa | 157.30 | 154 | 152 | 163 | 169 |
| 4 | PNB | 484.45 | 477 | 470 | 495 | 508 |
| 5 | RNRL | 95.40 | 93 | 90 | 99 | 105 |
| For Delivery Based Investment Hot Midcaps/Smallcaps for Week (01.09.08 To 05.09.08) :- | ||||||
| Sr.No. | Company Name | BSE Code | Closing Price | Stoploss | Target 1 | Target 2 |
| 1 | Maan Ind | 513269 | 70.75 | 65.00 | 74 | 78 |
| 2 | Ganesh Forging | 532643 | 28.35 | 25.00 | 32 | 35 |
| 3 | Shyam Tele | 517411 | 99.00 | 92.00 | 104 | 109 |
| 4 | Malwa Cotton | 502995 | 50.30 | 45.00 | 53 | 56 |
| 5 | Cochin Mineral | 513353 | 44.60 | 40.00 | 47 | 50 |
| 6 | Harisson | 500467 | 99.30 | 95.00 | 105 | 110 |
| 7 | Action Finance | 511706 | 27.45 | 24.00 | 30 | 32 |
| 8 | Classic Diamond | 523200 | 46.85 | 42.00 | 49 | 53 |
| 9 | Atlanta | 532759 | 197.65 | 186.00 | 205 | 213 |
| 10 | Donear | 512519 | 44.90 | 40.00 | 47 | 50 |
| 11 | Modern India | 503015 | 236.70 | 227.00 | 244 | 252 |
| 12 | Asahi india | 515030 | 59.95 | 55.00 | 63 | 67 |
| 13 | Ind.Inv.Trust | 501295 | 72.00 | 66.00 | 77 | 80 |
| 14 | Shiva Cement | 532323 | 12.12 | 10.00 | 14 | 16 |
| 15 | Aftek Info | 530707 | 39.30 | 35.00 | 43 | 47 |
Scrip: - Rajesh Exports Ltd.
CMP: - 46
BSE Code:- 531500
52 Week H / L: - 168.30 - 45.80
Market Cap: - 1059.73
Target: - 120 (1 Year)
Summary: -
Rajesh Exports is involved is business of exporting gold and diamond
cutting. Recently this stock has hammered due to weakening rupee.
Dollar has appreciated at Rs 44 which come to 17 months low. The
second reason why it came down is Gold from 13 K sliped to10.8K.
Rajesh Export now the largest established private gold buyer,
accounting for 1.2% of the global gold trade. Having attained this
scale of operation, the company is now shifting its focus to find ways
of increasing its net profit margin.
In order to meet its objective of increasing its net profit margin,
Rajesh Exports has identified three major divers of growth:
Jewellery retailing: increasing presence across value chain by
catering to different segments of consumer needs
Diamond jewellery: expanding product range with higher margins
White labels: expanding its market by supplying white labels to retail
chain stores across the world.
Key Financials: - Its sales keep on increasing almost every quarter.
Before the recent split and bonus of this scrip this was one of the
favourate scrip of the investors.
EPS & PE both have bottomed out.
Rajesh Exports Ltd had reported revenue growth of 40.7% on year-on-
year basis to Rs 25.25 bn for Q4 FY 08. Profits grew by 46.8% YoY to
Rs 489m as against expectation of Rs 528m,according to market
analysts.
This was due to high tax outflow in the last quarter, which was not
provided for in the previous quarters. Operating margins declined by
298bps YoY to 3.3% due to higher share of its low margin bulk
business.
For the year, revenue grew by 25.7% YoY to Rs86.67bn and PAT grew by
103.9% YoY to Rs2.07bn against our expectation of Rs2.11bn and OPM
increased by 130bps to 4.4%.
The Real Estate: - Rajesh Exports has about four million sq.ft. land
in Bangalore and Kerala. It is now planning to develop these
properties and acquire competence in property development by setting
up a 100% subsidiary, Bangalore Infra. The company may look at
property development as a separate business in future.
Calculations: - Calculating all the above points and the real estate
it has the Market cap should be the double of what it is now. So the
stock prices will give 100 - 200 % returns in 1 Year.
Positive Factors: -
World’s largest gold exporter at lowest cost.
Stock is currently trading at low valuations.
Big order book.
Foreign investors increased their stake by 10% .
FIIs bought this stock at around Rs 95 then why should you wait to
grab this stock at Rs 46.
Key Concerns: - Continued volatility in gold prices and adverse market
conditions have forced Rajesh Exports, India’s leading gold and
diamond manufacturer to go slow on its retail expansion plans.
The 100 Shubh stores which were expected to be rolled out by FY09, has
been reduced to 40 due to continued volatility in gold prices and
adverse market conditions. It is not expanding its Laabh stores
either, and would keep the number of stores at a 30 in
FY09.
However, the growth in bulk business to Middle East would compensate
for the loss of growth in retail, according to company sources.
The company expects its other businesses of bulk exports,white labels
and diamond jewellery to more than compensate for the slowdown in its
retail division.
The slowdown in its retail business is likely to affect its overall
financial performance.
For the comming week, nifty is seen to trade in the triangle as in the chart.
it bounced exactly from the 50% level according to fibonacci levels, and as long as 4321 is held, nifty is buy on dips., 1st tgt being 4446, where it will face resistence again at the upper trendline.
if nifty breaks 4321, all longs should be closed, where nifty might fall to 4220, below which big downside can come.
Overall, i dont expct big movement in the current scenerio, and i expct nifty to trade within the triangle.
as a positional trader, one can comfortably trade with these levels.
Market may open up. Market may up between 10.19 and 10.40 Market may steady or up side between 12.35 and 12.50. Market may close at down to previous closing.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS
Opening Bell Call
Buy
ONGC - Oil & Natural Gas Corpn Ltd
POWERGRID - Power Grid Corporation of India Limited
PNB - Punjab National Bank
GTOFFSHORE - Great Offshore Limited
TATAMOTORS - Tata Motors Limited
On 29th August 2008 - The BSE Sensex closed at 14,564 (Up 516 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4360 (Up 146 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
DRREDDY - Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd.
HINDALCO - Hindalco Industries Ltd.
SELMCL - SEL Manufacturing Company Limited
MAXWELL - Maxwell Industries Limited
IFCI - IFCI Limited
Technical Analysis for 1st September 2008
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 14476, 14421, 14366, 14268, 14169, 14015, 13862, 13708
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 14575, 14673, 14728, 14783, 14936, 15090, 15243, 15397
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 4319, 4295, 4270, 4226, 4181, 4112, 4043, 3974
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4364, 4408, 4433, 4457, 4526, 4595, 4664, 4733
Sensex Technical View :
Sensex has bounced back from the 50 % retracement and domestic cues like inflation , gdp gave a much more bigger bounce in the day . Still the index continues to remain in the tight range of 14000 -14800 . Technically a good close above 14800 for 2-3 sessions should take a shot at 15500 which is the previous top. On the lower side 14k and 13700 needs to be watched till then be stock specific and patient.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
GDP gives another add on to the inflation nos and mkts jumped up with lot of stbt guys hit hard n dats why its better to let a clear trend emerge then keep scavenging some points here n there n lose out one damn day.
Lot of insider buying has been in small cap stocks where promoters have increased stake slowly !! i would consider this to be a better signal then BUYBACKs . MAn Inds , Sita Shree , BSEL infra etc etc do a lil research out here.
Crude may see a pull up with some hurricane threats and this could impact cues in short term.
Stocks to watchout for :
SAIL has given a breakout and sustaining 155 shud tgt 170.
TITAN is shaping up nicely and steady closing above 1300-1340 could lead to 1500 + .
Moser Baer is a strong bounce candidate with almost triple bottom arnd 88 levels . 105-108 is a resistance which it could hit buy on dips or momentum above 108.
Breakouts TRIVENI and PUNJLLOYD
The SENSEX moved up off longer term support at 14,097 to bump up against resistance at 14,645 on Friday. You can see these levels marked on the two charts on the left the first is short-term, the second longer-term. The short-term trend indicators we have had are marked with arrows on the first chart and the latest ones on the Parabolic-SAR and MACD studies are now bearish as you can see. The Alpha Beta trend is now neutral from bullish. So, the near-term indicators are pointing down and we need to keep a close eye on these supports carefully as it might mean this small downtrend we are currently seeing may be short-lived. So far, they are holding well.
DECOUPLING
While the SENSEX decoupled quite nicely from the other Asian markets following the government victory at the vote of confidence and the associated politics. It was clear investors took this outcome positively and bullish for economic reforms. However, given the inflation and growth backdrop at least some of this enthusiasm has evaporated and the negativity elsewhere on the Asian stock markets has begun dragging on the SENSEX again.
That said, at 12.40 percent inflation number for mid-August was lower than expected by the market and indeed moderated slightly and the 7.9 percent GDP number was taken calmly by the market despite being slightly lower than anticipated.
The fourth chart has the 10-day correlation study of the SENSEX vs INR and this is turning down quite sharply so the link is clearly breaking down now. A very high correlation between the two has existed for around a month and the SENSEX moving in lockstep with the INR. If you watch one, you must watch the other.
And finally a look at gold. Gold has seen an excellent bounce off the strong 785 support level, a level that has been evident on the chart for weeks now. It was very strong support in Q4 last year.
But, 835 is the big resistance level and as you can see from the chart is providing a solid barrier to further gains. All the recent closes have been below and US trading on Friday did not break the pattern. One to watch for sure, and a break above would set up a move to the next two resistance points as marked on the chart at 850 and 859. But 835 is the key overhead resistance level being around the peaks reached in 2007.
The Commodity Channel index has broken up through the negative 100 line which is a bullish signal. The Parabolic-SAR has also switched to bullish and the MACD lines have crossed.
But the signals are not that strong and we should continue to not yet be looking too much to the upside and there is need for caution. The start of the bearish move is marked with the latest set of black arrows the MACD and P-SAR flagged it very well.
For the comming week, nifty is seen to trade in the triangle as in the chart.
it bounced exactly from the 50% level according to fibonacci levels, and as long as 4321 is held, nifty is buy on dips., 1st tgt being 4446, where it will face resistence again at the upper trendline.
if nifty breaks 4321, all longs should be closed, where nifty might fall to 4220, below which big downside can come.
Overall, i dont expct big movement in the current scenerio, and i expct nifty to trade within the triangle.
as a positional trader, one can comfortably trade with these levels.
CMP : 4360
Atlast coming to Weekly Charts indicating only Strong Reversal.Slow Stocastic is showing strong reversal
Let See How this twist ends.
Happy Trading!!!
1. SBI enjoys a strong support at the levels of Rs 1319. One has to keep this support under observation as breaking this level means that stock can head for Rs 1,250.
2. In case stock closes below the level of Rs 1239 than stock can touch the level of Rs 1050.
3. If stock closes above 1451 than the stock can target the level of Rs 1,519- Rs 1,577- Rs 1,690- 1,930 wit each level acting as
1. Infosys has to move above the level of RS 1751 to keep its march going ahead. Near term outlook for stock is positive.
2. Investors and traders can enter in stock once it moves above the level of Rs 1751 to make sure shot gains as in that scenario stock wll touch the level of Rs 1799 and Rs 1875.3. Keep an eye on supports which exist for stock at the levels of Rs 1649 and Rs 1579. Medium term
1. It is a concern now as Reliance equity price has closed below 50DMA. One has to keep watch in case 2099 level is broken.
2. If one is a short term trader than one can exit if 2049 level is broken. However with a broad range one may see a technical run up to 2250 in the equity price.3. Present trend for stock is neutral and turns negative if 1949 level is broken.Equity tips for India worth
1. Tisco has a short term negative outlook. The equity price has to close above Rs 621 to let this stock get a breather.
2. Thereafter crossing 621 the stock has a chance to touch 649 levels. If stock is able to close above level of Rs 651, than medium term for stock becomes positive. Tata steel has a key support at Rs 549 level.3. Long term investors can accumulate stock near 551 levels or with
CMP : 4360
Last Friday's unusal celebration makes me think about the contrarian side and this time very badly about
indian stock markets.Also operators targetted the reliance badly for the past three days. They treated
reliance very badly and on friday immediately reliance becomes their pet. Looks more unusal. I personally
feel that its a big game of operators to squeeze the shorts of small traders.
Where this market is going to move? It is quit difficult for me to come up a decision. So I tried
analysing all the hourly,daily,weekly charts of nifty to come up with my conclusion.
Infterence from Hourly Charts :
Last Friday close in nifty above 4360 made a breakout signal in Nifty hourly charts but its rsi level is not
imressive because its RSI level spikes immediately from 20% to 60% which shows only a small uptrend is
left as per nifty hourly charts. And 200MA(hourly) EMA is currently at 4385. So as per hourly charts strong
resistance in 4385-4395 zone. And as per this chart maximum upside is possible upto 4440 for this week.
Inferece from Daily Charts :
So I try to figure out Nifty Daily Charts. Looking at daily nifty charts there is not conclusive buy or sell signals.
Slow Stocastic look more confused with huge number of crossover indicating a confustion. And MACD is just
crossing zero indicating a sell signal as per daily charts. And Also Nifty Closed Just above my favorite indicator
20 day EMA(4356). So if any of the day left closed below 4356 will definitely indicate a strong reversal. And as per
Daily Nifty Charts resistance are coming nearly 4400.
Inferece from Weekly Charts :
Nifty CMP : 4360
Atlast coming to Weekly Charts indicating only Strong Reversal.Slow Stocastic is showing strong reversal
and also Nifty weekly charts closed below 20EMA for the second week continiouly. And weekly resistance
coming near 4431- 4447 range And also i try to analyse some its constituents like Reliance, L&T, ICICI, SBI,
HDFC, Reliance Communication, BHEL. Almost all the stocks are below 20 EMA except BHEL. And BHEL
is currently in the mood to fill the gap formed near 1600 range. So overall Nifty Weekly Charts are indicating
a Strong Reversak Pattern with falling Stocastic Indicator.
Conclusion:
So by concluding all these things for the current week we are limited upto 4440 range in upside with
sequence of resistance at 4385,4400,4440. If we are able to sustain above that then we can see 4600-4800 levels
in coming months And Now this time iam gonna believe oStrongly on Nifty Weekly Charts rather than try beliving
on Daily and Hourly Charts. Just taking some longer duration charts.
1)And if we try breaking 4250 for the third time then i sure we are gonna reach 4000 kind of level and
even lower targets are possible.If you note currency markets Yen appreciates from 110.50 to 108.50 and rupee depriciate from 42 to 44. During june same thing happens and by that time crude Shots up heavily.In short rupee should not depriciate and Yen should not aprreciate But unfortunately both happens at the same time.And Market will explaining the effect.To know what happened last June try visit
Yen - Rupee Currency Mismatch and Selling in Indian Market
Yen - Rupee Currency Mismatch and Selling in Indian Market
2) If we are able to move above 4440 then it suggest that crude is going to fall below $112/barrel because
operators targeted Reliance without any reason and cairn is moving little in negative direction. And Reliance
upmove about 3% close on last friday looks quite unusual.Let See How this twist ends.
Happy Trading!!!
1. SBI enjoys a strong support at the levels of Rs 1319. One has to keep this support under observation as breaking this level means that stock can head for Rs 1,250.
2. In case stock closes below the level of Rs 1239 than stock can touch the level of Rs 1050.
3. If stock closes above 1451 than the stock can target the level of Rs 1,519- Rs 1,577- Rs 1,690- 1,930 wit each level acting as
1. Infosys has to move above the level of RS 1751 to keep its march going ahead. Near term outlook for stock is positive.
2. Investors and traders can enter in stock once it moves above the level of Rs 1751 to make sure shot gains as in that scenario stock wll touch the level of Rs 1799 and Rs 1875.3. Keep an eye on supports which exist for stock at the levels of Rs 1649 and Rs 1579. Medium term
1. It is a concern now as Reliance equity price has closed below 50DMA. One has to keep watch in case 2099 level is broken.
2. If one is a short term trader than one can exit if 2049 level is broken. However with a broad range one may see a technical run up to 2250 in the equity price.3. Present trend for stock is neutral and turns negative if 1949 level is broken.Equity tips for India worth
1. Tisco has a short term negative outlook. The equity price has to close above Rs 621 to let this stock get a breather.
2. Thereafter crossing 621 the stock has a chance to touch 649 levels. If stock is able to close above level of Rs 651, than medium term for stock becomes positive. Tata steel has a key support at Rs 549 level.3. Long term investors can accumulate stock near 551 levels or with
The markets remained extremely choppy through the week gone by with extreme bouts of volatility as it moved towards the end of the derivative settlement for August. This F&O expiry which was among the most uninspiring in the recent past against the backdrop of unusually low volumes and rollovers, however gained momentum on the last day of expiry. Thus even though 75 % rollover in August Nifty futures can be termed as higher when compared to the average of 67 % witnessed in the preceding three months, in absolute terms, the numbers do not enthuse.
Thus both, the bulls and the bears remained perplexed about the near-term prospects of the markets. Fears of further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India to rein in inflation which remained at a 16-year high also haunted the bourses and kept investors on the sidelines for most of the week.
Nevertheless, the marginal decline in the inflation numbers (@12.40% for the week ended 16 August 2008 from 12.63% in the previous week) and strong global cues helped the markets to make a sharp rebound of more than 500 points on the last trading day. Resultantly, the benchmark indices which had remained largely subdued for the large part of the week recovered from its losses to end on a positive note.
Though now, the headline inflation has declined marginally it still remains a concern area for the Indian stock market. This was also reflected in the economic growth for the first quarter of the current fiscal which dipped below the 7.9% mark from 8.8% in the last quarter of the previous fiscal. Meanwhile, sharp appreciation of the US dollar against major G-7 currencies, with the notable exception of the yen caused the Indian rupee to depreciate at an unmatched pace of 4.3% within 13 working days.
However, with growth decelerating there can now be hope that the unabated increase in interest rates could be close to an end. Another important factor that could impact the week ahead is the Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting in Vienna to be held on September 4, 2008 which, if it goes through, could provide some boost to the markets on the upside.
Thus for now, though the stage may seem set for an uptrend in the near term (much would still depend on the global cues) it still remains anchored by the RBI and its hitherto hawkish stance. Hence, with uncertain cues from both, domestic and global markets plus a truncated week ahead, investors would do well to tread cautiously in the near-term, but pouch portfolio picks with a long term perspective.
WEEKLY REPORT CARD
(1st to 6th sep 2008)
Hello friends, hope all are fine and had enjoyed roller costar ride in the last week –one-day negative and second day positive. Most of traders have caught sleepy on Friday by going short. We will not discuss about the inflation and gdp data.
The major event in this week will be the meeting which will be held in Vienna from 4th September 2008 for two days about the indo-us nuke deal so all eye will be their and we have holiday on 3rd due to ganesh charturthi.
Lets come to the main points.
DERAVATIVE ANALYSIS- in the September month series traders was buying call options of various strike prices like 4400-4500-4600 so that indicates the bullish tone. The most active two were the 4300 call and 4500 put we have seen huge buying in this two –that indicates the index has strong support at 4300 and strong resistance at 4500 so broadly we expect the index range could be the 4300 to 4500 up to the meeting of indo-us nuke deal.
NIFTY FU-those who are high risk trader can take long positions in the nifty fu .on the weekly chart index has formed the hammer and hanging man formation after downtrend so this is the sign of bullish reversal in the coming session.
Index has various resistance as below-4453-4460 if index gives two close above 4460 then it can fire to 4513 and above that it can test 4600 and in the best case it can test 4656.
While on the down side support at 4336-4208-4200.
SENSEX-on the weekly charts index has formed hammer and hanging man both are indicating positive.
Index has support at 14511 and 14000 while resistance are 15128-15273.
FUTURE STRATEGY-
Keep stop loss of 4200 and go long in nifty fu with target of 4460-4513.
Buy reliance communication fu with stop loss of 382 and target of 417 once cross and close above it will fire to 444 this is positional call for our paid members –we have given just for information.-our subscribers has made short in this fu between 444-455 with target of 385 and it achieved
SHORT TERM DELIVERY BASED-
Bank of Baroda-if it trades 15 minutes above 286 on Monday then buy with stop loss of 275 with target of 308.
Karnataka bank-stop loss of 133-130 targets 153.
Steel authority-stop loss 145 target 171.
Voltas-stop loss 118 target 125 above that it can test 129-133 above 136-140.
Aban offchore-keep stop loss 200 and target are 2209.
Weekly range of the delivery based stock
Stock name High price Low price
Bank of baroda 302 270
Karnataka bank 148 135
Steel autho 164 151
Voltas 126 122
Aban off 2200 1895
TABLE OF IMPORTANT LEVELS
INDEX RESISTANCE SUPPORT
Nifty fu 4453 4336
4460 4208
4513 4200
Sensex 15128 14511
15273 1400
TREND ANALYSIS TABLE
INDEX DAILY CHART WEEKLY CHART
Nifty fu Bearish Mild bullish
Sensex Bearish Mild bullish
GLOBAL STOCK MARKET-
DOW JONES-on weekly charts index has strong support on trend line at 11509 if index close two days below then major sell off will happen. While on the upper hand resistance are 11720-11868.
NASDAQ-resistance at 2390 and support at 2351.
HANG SANG-still n still we says don’t hold short positions in this index.
FTSE-two most resistance are 5828-5876 close above watch unexpected up move and will cross mark 6000 and will fire to 6067 while support at 5669.
COMMODOTIES –
MCX CRUDE OIL-gain n again support at 4671 forget all the news and view this is iron support for the crude –slowly it will recover and bears will loose their grip.
MCX GOLD-our subscribers are long since 11500 keep stop loss of 11687 and go long our upper target are 12131 above 12300 and last resistance at 12443 then????? Watch unexpected short covering and buying in gold-bears will commit ………
Thus both, the bulls and the bears remained perplexed about the near-term prospects of the markets. Fears of further monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India to rein in inflation which remained at a 16-year high also haunted the bourses and kept investors on the sidelines for most of the week.
Nevertheless, the marginal decline in the inflation numbers (@12.40% for the week ended 16 August 2008 from 12.63% in the previous week) and strong global cues helped the markets to make a sharp rebound of more than 500 points on the last trading day. Resultantly, the benchmark indices which had remained largely subdued for the large part of the week recovered from its losses to end on a positive note.
Though now, the headline inflation has declined marginally it still remains a concern area for the Indian stock market. This was also reflected in the economic growth for the first quarter of the current fiscal which dipped below the 7.9% mark from 8.8% in the last quarter of the previous fiscal. Meanwhile, sharp appreciation of the US dollar against major G-7 currencies, with the notable exception of the yen caused the Indian rupee to depreciate at an unmatched pace of 4.3% within 13 working days.
However, with growth decelerating there can now be hope that the unabated increase in interest rates could be close to an end. Another important factor that could impact the week ahead is the Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting in Vienna to be held on September 4, 2008 which, if it goes through, could provide some boost to the markets on the upside.
Thus for now, though the stage may seem set for an uptrend in the near term (much would still depend on the global cues) it still remains anchored by the RBI and its hitherto hawkish stance. Hence, with uncertain cues from both, domestic and global markets plus a truncated week ahead, investors would do well to tread cautiously in the near-term, but pouch portfolio picks with a long term perspective.
WEEKLY REPORT CARD
(1st to 6th sep 2008)
Hello friends, hope all are fine and had enjoyed roller costar ride in the last week –one-day negative and second day positive. Most of traders have caught sleepy on Friday by going short. We will not discuss about the inflation and gdp data.
The major event in this week will be the meeting which will be held in Vienna from 4th September 2008 for two days about the indo-us nuke deal so all eye will be their and we have holiday on 3rd due to ganesh charturthi.
Lets come to the main points.
DERAVATIVE ANALYSIS- in the September month series traders was buying call options of various strike prices like 4400-4500-4600 so that indicates the bullish tone. The most active two were the 4300 call and 4500 put we have seen huge buying in this two –that indicates the index has strong support at 4300 and strong resistance at 4500 so broadly we expect the index range could be the 4300 to 4500 up to the meeting of indo-us nuke deal.
NIFTY FU-those who are high risk trader can take long positions in the nifty fu .on the weekly chart index has formed the hammer and hanging man formation after downtrend so this is the sign of bullish reversal in the coming session.
Index has various resistance as below-4453-4460 if index gives two close above 4460 then it can fire to 4513 and above that it can test 4600 and in the best case it can test 4656.
While on the down side support at 4336-4208-4200.
SENSEX-on the weekly charts index has formed hammer and hanging man both are indicating positive.
Index has support at 14511 and 14000 while resistance are 15128-15273.
FUTURE STRATEGY-
Keep stop loss of 4200 and go long in nifty fu with target of 4460-4513.
Buy reliance communication fu with stop loss of 382 and target of 417 once cross and close above it will fire to 444 this is positional call for our paid members –we have given just for information.-our subscribers has made short in this fu between 444-455 with target of 385 and it achieved
SHORT TERM DELIVERY BASED-
Bank of Baroda-if it trades 15 minutes above 286 on Monday then buy with stop loss of 275 with target of 308.
Karnataka bank-stop loss of 133-130 targets 153.
Steel authority-stop loss 145 target 171.
Voltas-stop loss 118 target 125 above that it can test 129-133 above 136-140.
Aban offchore-keep stop loss 200 and target are 2209.
Weekly range of the delivery based stock
Stock name High price Low price
Bank of baroda 302 270
Karnataka bank 148 135
Steel autho 164 151
Voltas 126 122
Aban off 2200 1895
TABLE OF IMPORTANT LEVELS
INDEX RESISTANCE SUPPORT
Nifty fu 4453 4336
4460 4208
4513 4200
Sensex 15128 14511
15273 1400
TREND ANALYSIS TABLE
INDEX DAILY CHART WEEKLY CHART
Nifty fu Bearish Mild bullish
Sensex Bearish Mild bullish
GLOBAL STOCK MARKET-
DOW JONES-on weekly charts index has strong support on trend line at 11509 if index close two days below then major sell off will happen. While on the upper hand resistance are 11720-11868.
NASDAQ-resistance at 2390 and support at 2351.
HANG SANG-still n still we says don’t hold short positions in this index.
FTSE-two most resistance are 5828-5876 close above watch unexpected up move and will cross mark 6000 and will fire to 6067 while support at 5669.
COMMODOTIES –
MCX CRUDE OIL-gain n again support at 4671 forget all the news and view this is iron support for the crude –slowly it will recover and bears will loose their grip.
MCX GOLD-our subscribers are long since 11500 keep stop loss of 11687 and go long our upper target are 12131 above 12300 and last resistance at 12443 then????? Watch unexpected short covering and buying in gold-bears will commit ………
Market may open up. Market may up between 10.19 and 10.40 Market may steady or up side between 12.35 and 12.50. Market may close at down to previous closing.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS
Opening Bell Call
Buy
ONGC - Oil & Natural Gas Corpn Ltd
POWERGRID - Power Grid Corporation of India Limited
PNB - Punjab National Bank
GTOFFSHORE - Great Offshore Limited
TATAMOTORS - Tata Motors Limited
On 29th August 2008 - The BSE Sensex closed at 14,564 (Up 516 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4360 (Up 146 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
DRREDDY - Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd.
HINDALCO - Hindalco Industries Ltd.
SELMCL - SEL Manufacturing Company Limited
MAXWELL - Maxwell Industries Limited
IFCI - IFCI Limited
Technical Analysis for 1st September 2008
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 14476, 14421, 14366, 14268, 14169, 14015, 13862, 13708
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 14575, 14673, 14728, 14783, 14936, 15090, 15243, 15397
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 4319, 4295, 4270, 4226, 4181, 4112, 4043, 3974
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4364, 4408, 4433, 4457, 4526, 4595, 4664, 4733
Sensex Technical View :
Sensex has bounced back from the 50 % retracement and domestic cues like inflation , gdp gave a much more bigger bounce in the day . Still the index continues to remain in the tight range of 14000 -14800 . Technically a good close above 14800 for 2-3 sessions should take a shot at 15500 which is the previous top. On the lower side 14k and 13700 needs to be watched till then be stock specific and patient.
Market Observations and Thoughts :
GDP gives another add on to the inflation nos and mkts jumped up with lot of stbt guys hit hard n dats why its better to let a clear trend emerge then keep scavenging some points here n there n lose out one damn day.
Lot of insider buying has been in small cap stocks where promoters have increased stake slowly !! i would consider this to be a better signal then BUYBACKs . MAn Inds , Sita Shree , BSEL infra etc etc do a lil research out here.
Crude may see a pull up with some hurricane threats and this could impact cues in short term.
Stocks to watchout for :
SAIL has given a breakout and sustaining 155 shud tgt 170.
TITAN is shaping up nicely and steady closing above 1300-1340 could lead to 1500 + .
Moser Baer is a strong bounce candidate with almost triple bottom arnd 88 levels . 105-108 is a resistance which it could hit buy on dips or momentum above 108.
Breakouts TRIVENI and PUNJLLOYD
morning thoughts..
The markets moved up and showed hints of deception as expected, and trapped the bears.
Technically the markets are moving above the crucial supports 14005 on sensex and 4205 on nifty, so far as this levels are maintained the markets will bounce from lower levels.
However the structure of the market is still in an undecisive mode and needs to sustain the upmove with volumes.
Moreover in this truncated week of trading , Wednesday being a holiday , the makets are likely to ve volatile and in consolidation mode with sideways movement .
From a trading angle , I will like to trade the volatility on the upside .
The supports for the nifty is at 4245 levels and resistance at 4390 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14445 levels and resistance at 14600 levels
September is a month full of astrological changes…
The Northern Hemisphere officially ushers in fall and the approach of cooler and shorter days with the Autumnal Equinox on the 22nd of the month, while the Southern Hemisphere gets ready for the joy and flowers of spring -- it is truly a time of change. This is also the start of the academic year for many countries in the Northern Hemisphere, and generally a time to get back to business.
It's almost as if the cosmos also wants to get us back on track. On September 3, the Sun conjuncts Saturn in Virgo, creating formidable energy that you can use to initiate something new. Then, on September 4, the Sun forms a supportive trine to Jupiter in ambitious Capricorn, indicating that influential people are ready to help you. This is a great time to form beneficial partnerships and invest in cooperative ventures.
Jupiter has been retrograde since May 9, and it finally turns direct on September 7. Pluto, which has also been retrograde since April, turns direct on September 8. With both Jupiter and Pluto going direct within days of each other, it seems that evolution is again on the march for the entire world! A lot of change is coming! This is what we've all been waiting for since spring, so take stock of lessons and rewards, and get ready to practice the self-transcendence that Jupiter challenges us to perform.
There is a full Moon -- an emotionally heightened time -- in Pisces, the most sensitive member of the zodiac, on September 15. Add to the mix the rebellious, yet-innovative, Uranus sitting next to the full Moon, and you have all of the necessary ingredients to upset the applecart. Be careful not to overreact to anything. The full Moon is followed by a new Moon in the sign of relationships, Libra on September 29. This might mark a new stage in an established relationship or a brand new start of relationships for singles.
And finally, Mercury turns retrograde in diplomatic Libra on September 24. It's time to review some of the conversations and agreements you've made this month. Perhaps you agreed to something that didn't feel quite right, or didn't speak up when you should have because of a desire to avoid conflict. Now is the time to loop back and make things right with yourself and others. Connect!
Stocks to watch
With sun and Saturn coming together – a huge deceptive move is on cards
Positional calls
Nifty -we are applying nifty straadle reverse strangle at every levels for targets 3600 or 5200...?will feed us 900 points
The markets moved up and showed hints of deception as expected, and trapped the bears.
Technically the markets are moving above the crucial supports 14005 on sensex and 4205 on nifty, so far as this levels are maintained the markets will bounce from lower levels.
However the structure of the market is still in an undecisive mode and needs to sustain the upmove with volumes.
Moreover in this truncated week of trading , Wednesday being a holiday , the makets are likely to ve volatile and in consolidation mode with sideways movement .
From a trading angle , I will like to trade the volatility on the upside .
The supports for the nifty is at 4245 levels and resistance at 4390 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14445 levels and resistance at 14600 levels
September is a month full of astrological changes…
The Northern Hemisphere officially ushers in fall and the approach of cooler and shorter days with the Autumnal Equinox on the 22nd of the month, while the Southern Hemisphere gets ready for the joy and flowers of spring -- it is truly a time of change. This is also the start of the academic year for many countries in the Northern Hemisphere, and generally a time to get back to business.
It's almost as if the cosmos also wants to get us back on track. On September 3, the Sun conjuncts Saturn in Virgo, creating formidable energy that you can use to initiate something new. Then, on September 4, the Sun forms a supportive trine to Jupiter in ambitious Capricorn, indicating that influential people are ready to help you. This is a great time to form beneficial partnerships and invest in cooperative ventures.
Jupiter has been retrograde since May 9, and it finally turns direct on September 7. Pluto, which has also been retrograde since April, turns direct on September 8. With both Jupiter and Pluto going direct within days of each other, it seems that evolution is again on the march for the entire world! A lot of change is coming! This is what we've all been waiting for since spring, so take stock of lessons and rewards, and get ready to practice the self-transcendence that Jupiter challenges us to perform.
There is a full Moon -- an emotionally heightened time -- in Pisces, the most sensitive member of the zodiac, on September 15. Add to the mix the rebellious, yet-innovative, Uranus sitting next to the full Moon, and you have all of the necessary ingredients to upset the applecart. Be careful not to overreact to anything. The full Moon is followed by a new Moon in the sign of relationships, Libra on September 29. This might mark a new stage in an established relationship or a brand new start of relationships for singles.
And finally, Mercury turns retrograde in diplomatic Libra on September 24. It's time to review some of the conversations and agreements you've made this month. Perhaps you agreed to something that didn't feel quite right, or didn't speak up when you should have because of a desire to avoid conflict. Now is the time to loop back and make things right with yourself and others. Connect!
Stocks to watch
With sun and Saturn coming together – a huge deceptive move is on cards
Positional calls
Nifty -we are applying nifty straadle reverse strangle at every levels for targets 3600 or 5200...?will feed us 900 points
Nifty :: No doubt about up trend , exactly bounce beck from strong support zone, but still facing strong breakdown resistance at 4373 and after that next strong resistance zone between 4400 to 4435. Avoid buying at higher level. Momentum turn strong once again only above 4435 till then, Our strategy for 1st Sep. Sell at high (S.L 4435) buy on deep (S.L 4205).. First strong support at 4338(short term breakout level), below it next supports 4314/4260/4223/4205.. Resistance seems for up move at 4373/4384/4400/4427/4435/4480..
Well from my previous post, you would have seen my state of mind..lol..man i love that monkey...well it captures well the state of mind of traders..not only in our markets but globally...one day we go up, the other day we go down...confusing the hell out of everyone...well you would have got by now that I am confused..we are at a wave morph point...I will show one chart which was my earlier preferred scenario...and a 2nd chart after that which shows the other possibility which is also becoming strong day by day...the more bullish scenario...
First possibility...what i was looking at for all these past days...
2nd one...this one is gaining credence every day we go by..and we need to pay attention to this one here...being completely bearish is dangerous..
Hope you read my comments on the chart...I think we are in a strong 'morph' scenario..we need to give importance to both cases here..As you know I am short still from 4400..I am thinking I will cover today on initial weakness and maybe go long in small amounts..now dont get me wrong..I am still bearish..but see some upside in short term...
First possibility...what i was looking at for all these past days...
2nd one...this one is gaining credence every day we go by..and we need to pay attention to this one here...being completely bearish is dangerous..
Hope you read my comments on the chart...I think we are in a strong 'morph' scenario..we need to give importance to both cases here..As you know I am short still from 4400..I am thinking I will cover today on initial weakness and maybe go long in small amounts..now dont get me wrong..I am still bearish..but see some upside in short term...
Comment welcome please...Good or Bad...
The Indian market opened on gap-up and sustain the gain through out the session and close with handsome gain in green zone. For coming session we can witness more up side towards 4398 -4413 levels. On the other-side 4284-4313 will act as support zone.
Last week nifty closed with gain of 0.80% .Market saw smart recovery from lower levels as lower inflation and fall in crude nifty opened on gap-up on Friday and close near days highs on daily chart nifty had formed Marubozu candel which is bullish sign for the bulls .Nifty has taken support from 50%retracement of rally from 3790-4650 levels and it is still holding Higher Top and Higher Bottom formation as shown on chart. On weekly chart nifty has made Hammer pattern again good sign for bulls crossing above 4398 it can test 4501 levels .For the coming session we can test 4379-4438levels. we can see some profit booking near 4413-4450zone On the other 4320 -4280 will act support zone for this week key level is 4320 .
The Indian market opened on gap-up and sustain the gain through out the session and close with handsome gain in green zone. For coming session we can witness more up side towards 4398 -4413 levels. On the other-side 4284-4313 will act as support zone.
Last week nifty closed with gain of 0.80% .Market saw smart recovery from lower levels as lower inflation and fall in crude nifty opened on gap-up on Friday and close near days highs on daily chart nifty had formed Marubozu candel which is bullish sign for the bulls .Nifty has taken support from 50%retracement of rally from 3790-4650 levels and it is still holding Higher Top and Higher Bottom formation as shown on chart. On weekly chart nifty has made Hammer pattern again good sign for bulls crossing above 4398 it can test 4501 levels .For the coming session we can test 4379-4438levels. we can see some profit booking near 4413-4450zone On the other 4320 -4280 will act support zone for this week key level is 4320 .
NIFTY WEEKLY HAMMER PATTERN CLOSING ABOVE 4398--- HAMMER TARGET 4501
1SEPBUY PUNJLLOYD ABOVE 304 TGT 313 >321 STOPLOSS 298
BUY PNB ABOVE 485 TGT 493>501 STOPLOSS 477
BUY CNXIT ABOVE 3968 TGT 4051>4110 STOPLOSS 3912
Seen above is the daily chart of the Nifty along with the Relative Strength Index (RSI). As seen in the chart above, the RSI has found support at 40 at the same time as the Nifty found support near the lower end of the trend channel at 4200. This seems to be a short term bullish for the markets and as mentioned in Thursday’s post, the outlook for the future remains the same since the Nifty is still locked between the range of 4200-4650. In short, in the very short term further downside may have been avoided for now but from a short to a medium term perspective, the trend remains sideways. A clear direction would be known only after one of these ranges. For now, we shall wait for the Nifty to reach 4650, or for the point where there is a return line failure. A failure to reach either the top or the bottom of a trend channel is known as a return line failure.
MARKET FINDS SUPPORT AT LOWER LEVELS
Bse Sensex(14564.53) and Nifty(4360) closed approximately 1.0% and 0.7% up each last week . Inflation was at 12.40 v/s 12.63 and Crude fell to 117 $.Bears were forced to cover as inflation came lower. Market will take cue from Crude oil prices and developments on nuclear deal..Support for Sensex is 14150 and for Nifty 4240 Resistance level of for Sensex 15000 and 4520 for Nifty. Selective buying will be visible at every decline.
Nifty put-call ratio is 0.99 .Nifty 4300 call saw addition in open interest.HLL and GVKPower saw addition in open interest..
Strategy for Future & Option players
1)IFCI (44.70) -Lot Size-1970 Shares
Buy One Call Option September Month Price 45@2.95 Rs.
Sell One Call Option September Month Price 47.50@1.95 Rs.
Premium Paid=2.95*1970=5811.50 Rs.
Premium Received =1.95*1970=3841.50 Rs.
Net Premium Paid=5811.50-3841.50=1970.00 Rs.
Maximum Profit=47.50-45.00=2.50*1970=4925-1970=2955.00 RS.
Maximum Loss=1970.00 Rs.
Break even point=46.00 Rs
2)SBI Future(1410.00) Lot Size 132 Shares
Buy One Lot SBI eptember Future@1410.00 Rs.
Sell Call Option SBI September Month Strike Price 1470@41.00 Rs.
Premium Received=41.00*132=5412.00 Rs.
Maximum Profit=1470.00-1410.00=60.00+41.00=101.00*132=13332.00 Rs.
Maximum Loss=Unlimited.
Trading Idea
1)Ashokleyland(33.55)Buy this stock in decline and trade
2)TTML(26.50)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
Nifty (4360) Sup 4305 Res 4405
Buy Jindal Saw (581)
SL 575 Target 597, 600
Buy Punj Lloyd (301)
SL 296 Target 311, 313
Buy Bank India (267)
SL 262 Target 277, 279
Sell HPCL (201)
SL 206 Target 190, 188
Sell Grasim (1937)
SL 1955 Target 1910, 1900
Nifty at a support 4320 and 4290 with resistance at 4400 and 4450 levels.
Cash: Buy SBIN above 1365 target 1430 with S/L 1335.
Cash: BHEL above 1670 target 1725 with S/L 1640.
Future: Sell RIL below 2153 target 2080 with S/L 2185.
Future: Sell RCOM below 398 targets 380 with S/L 405.
1SEPBUY PUNJLLOYD ABOVE 304 TGT 313 >321 STOPLOSS 298
BUY PNB ABOVE 485 TGT 493>501 STOPLOSS 477
BUY CNXIT ABOVE 3968 TGT 4051>4110 STOPLOSS 3912
The Nifty opened with a good positive gap on Friday and continued to reach higher levels throughout the day on Friday. In earlier posts it has been mentioned that the Nifty would should, find support at the lower end of the rectangle which happens to be at 4200. The low touched on Thursday was 4201. The 30 minutes chart had shown a breakdown through a symmetrical triangle, the target for which was 4160, which coincided with the most recent pivot low formed on the daily charts (4159). So, it was expected that the range between 4160 and 4200 would provide good support. And 4201 happens to be the level from where the Nifty turns back.
Seen above is the daily chart of the Nifty along with the Relative Strength Index (RSI). As seen in the chart above, the RSI has found support at 40 at the same time as the Nifty found support near the lower end of the trend channel at 4200. This seems to be a short term bullish for the markets and as mentioned in Thursday’s post, the outlook for the future remains the same since the Nifty is still locked between the range of 4200-4650. In short, in the very short term further downside may have been avoided for now but from a short to a medium term perspective, the trend remains sideways. A clear direction would be known only after one of these ranges. For now, we shall wait for the Nifty to reach 4650, or for the point where there is a return line failure. A failure to reach either the top or the bottom of a trend channel is known as a return line failure.MARKET FINDS SUPPORT AT LOWER LEVELS
Bse Sensex(14564.53) and Nifty(4360) closed approximately 1.0% and 0.7% up each last week . Inflation was at 12.40 v/s 12.63 and Crude fell to 117 $.Bears were forced to cover as inflation came lower. Market will take cue from Crude oil prices and developments on nuclear deal..Support for Sensex is 14150 and for Nifty 4240 Resistance level of for Sensex 15000 and 4520 for Nifty. Selective buying will be visible at every decline.
Nifty put-call ratio is 0.99 .Nifty 4300 call saw addition in open interest.HLL and GVKPower saw addition in open interest..
Strategy for Future & Option players
1)IFCI (44.70) -Lot Size-1970 Shares
Buy One Call Option September Month Price 45@2.95 Rs.
Sell One Call Option September Month Price 47.50@1.95 Rs.
Premium Paid=2.95*1970=5811.50 Rs.
Premium Received =1.95*1970=3841.50 Rs.
Net Premium Paid=5811.50-3841.50=1970.00 Rs.
Maximum Profit=47.50-45.00=2.50*1970=4925-1970=2955.00 RS.
Maximum Loss=1970.00 Rs.
Break even point=46.00 Rs
2)SBI Future(1410.00) Lot Size 132 Shares
Buy One Lot SBI eptember Future@1410.00 Rs.
Sell Call Option SBI September Month Strike Price 1470@41.00 Rs.
Premium Received=41.00*132=5412.00 Rs.
Maximum Profit=1470.00-1410.00=60.00+41.00=101.00*132=13332.00 Rs.
Maximum Loss=Unlimited.
Trading Idea
1)Ashokleyland(33.55)Buy this stock in decline and trade
2)TTML(26.50)Buy this stock in decline and trade.
Nifty (4360) Sup 4305 Res 4405
Buy Jindal Saw (581)
SL 575 Target 597, 600
Buy Punj Lloyd (301)
SL 296 Target 311, 313
Buy Bank India (267)
SL 262 Target 277, 279
Sell HPCL (201)
SL 206 Target 190, 188
Sell Grasim (1937)
SL 1955 Target 1910, 1900
Nifty at a support 4320 and 4290 with resistance at 4400 and 4450 levels.
Cash: Buy SBIN above 1365 target 1430 with S/L 1335.
Cash: BHEL above 1670 target 1725 with S/L 1640.
Future: Sell RIL below 2153 target 2080 with S/L 2185.
Future: Sell RCOM below 398 targets 380 with S/L 405.
