ROCKET STOCK.... ALPA LABORATORIES LTD at Rs.21/-; TARGET 45/-
Alpa Laboratories Ltd, Trading in BSE & NSE at 21/- in B Group.This is
10/- FaceValue share trading at 21/-. This Company Shares came out in
July 2007 with Rs. 65/-. Daily grabbing with Mumbai BIG BIG Bulls
(Check the Delivery Positions in NSE and BSE daily above 75%) because
of Now stock is available at very very cheep price at 21/- EPS 7.5/-
expecting for this Annual financial, with PE 3 only. Narmally in worst
condition also PE will at 8. But Now PE is only 3. If you have already
buy some more make average. This is company is doing very very good.
Slowly grab this stock. Fundamental is very very good. Global cues and
Market worst is over. Don't Sell if you have Alpa Labs equities. Stay
Invest and wait up to 45/- minimum.
Total Equity of 21 Crores . Promoters Holding 55%; Private Corporate
Bodies 15%; Public only 30%.
Bokk Value of this Share was 37.65/-
In First Quarter Results was very good Net Profit at 3.11 Crores.
Fourth Quarter of 2007-08 Poor results was due to shutdown of a
portion of their existing plant due to expansion of plant in the same
campus. Expanding results affects next quarters. So Company Expecting
Good Net Profit with 15.5 Crores for this Financial Year with EPS of
7.5/- and Planning declare Dividend also.
And Company having Big amount of fixed diposite money in Bank nearly
31 crores. Per share its coming 15 Rupees.(Fixed deposited favor of
company). Alpa Laboratories having good Land Bank (35 Acres) in
INDORE.Total value of this land was 35 * 5 Crores = 105 Crores.
Company Equity only 21 Crores. And company running very good. Just
Invest based on Company fixed assets and Company financials.Alpa
Laboratories Ltd has appointed Tinez Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Nigeria as
its agent for distribution of its products already registered in
Nigeria and to be register in the future. Tinez Pharma being one of
the biggest importers of Drugs and Medicines in Nigeria, it expects
the volume of the business to reach between USD 6 million to USD 8
million within a year.
Alpa Laboratories Ltd has appointed Vhermann Pharmaceutical Inc,
Philippines as its agent for distribution of its products already
registered in Philippines and to be registered in the future.
Vhermann Pharma being a large importer of Drugs and Medicines
inPhilippines, it expects the volume of the business to reach between
USD 4 million to USD 6 million per year.
The Company is looking to expand upon its existing sales network by
joining hands with reputed parties all over the world.
Alpa Laboratories Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has entered
into an agreement with Wockhardt Ltd to manufacture products for
further exports by Wockhardt.
The Company is actively expanding its existing associations by joining
hands with reputed parties all over the world.Alpa Labs is looking to
expand upon its existing sales network by joining hands with reputed
parties all over the world.All of above good news current price (21/-)
is very very cheep.
See ALPA LABOIRATORIES EQUITY VALUE (Per share value) : 15/- Fixed
deposite in bank + 41/- original value as per financial results (7.5
EPS annulised) + Fixed assets like land etc., 42/-.
So Total Value of this company Share value was Rs.98/-. Just Imagine
company share price where to going in this year…… Just Buy at 21/-
Hold 1 to 6 months time. You will get minimum 100% to 200%
returns.Enter current price at 21/-Target 45/- 75/- .
Just invest and get 50% to 200% profit.
Possitive Points for this stock for Up moving:
1) Company doing very good with EPS 7.5/- PE only 3; Avialable very
cheep at 21/-
2) Company Expanding Results will share Next Quarters. So Net Profit
will Increase.
3) Book Value was 37.65/-
4) Company Having Fixed Deposited 31 Crores (Check BSEINDIA Site in
Results Notes) Per Share bank deposited Rs 15/-.
5) Planning to give Dividend for this financial.
6) Promoters Holding is good 55%
Enter current price at 21/- Short term Target 45/- Long Term Target
75/-
Strong Fundamentals. Just Buy at 21/- get 100% to 300% Profit.
See My Last 2 Weeks ROCKET STOCKS
1) RPG LIFE Scince at 30/- ; Reached at 43/- Now 39/-
2) COMPAC DISC Recommended at 50/- NOW Trading 75/-
3) POCHIRAJU IND. Recommended at 17/- Now Trading at 23/-
4) Lloyds Steel at 10.5/- Now Trading at 13/-
5) IFCI at 38/- Now Trading at 50/-
Now I am Recommending ALPA LABORATORIES Ltd; at 21/-, With Target of
45/- and 75/-; Its very Valuable Share.
The Nifty has consolidated in a range of 4460 and 4550 in the last three days and fresh long positions have been created in index futures. The index could thus see a sharp upswing on Monday and close above 4600. The NSE data shows that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought index futures on 8th August 2008. But there was no corresponding rise in the open interest. Thursday was an exception, as over 50 per cent of the day’s index futures purchases were carried forward as open interest, indicating the build-up of long positions.
The FII derivative positions for on Friday are not known. But the Nifty’s recovery from the day’s low of 4464 indicates that FIIs covered their shorts at lower levels and increased long positions. The Nifty August futures added open interest of 14,437 contracts out of the total trading volumes of 650,665 contracts and the premium doubled from nine points to 18 points, indicating build-up in long positions.
Market may open up with hugh gap. Market may up between 09.57 and 10.15. Market may steady or up side between 10.24 and 11.00. Market may close at up to previous closing.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS
Opening Bell Call
Buy
RELIANCE - Reliance Industries Ltd
NTPC - NTPC Limited
RNRL - Reliance Natural Resources Limited
IFCI - IFCI Limited
RELCAPITAL - Reliance Capital Limited
SUZLON - Suzlon Energy Limited
RPL - Reliance Petroleum Limited
On 8th August 2008 - The BSE Sensex closed at 15167 (Up 50 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4529 (Up 5 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
BAJAJHLDNG - Bajaj Holdings & Investment Limited
INDHOTEL - The Indian Hotels Company Limited
INDIAINFO - India Infoline Limited
Date 11/08/2008 Monday
DATE INDICATOR GREEN- BULLISH RED - BEARISH YELLOW- WAIT & WATCH
Most near support level Nifty--4396, Sensex--14565. Most near resistance level Nifty--4771, Sensex--15834.
Alert :-- Please do not hold any long position and go home, any time bears will attack. So please be alert now.
According to weekly or two weekly targets Nifty Spot trade above the level of (4508 & 4556) Sensex (15023 & 15206) then they can go up to the level of Nifty Spot (4772 to 4796 & Sensex (15992 to 16471) but if Nifty Spot go to break the level of (4423 to 4267) Sensex (14720 to 14127) then they can go below the level of Nifty Spot (4207 to 3877) Sensex(13934 to 12679).
According to main support level when Nifty Spot trade above the level of 4396, Sensex----14565 then Nifty Spot can go at the level of 4771 & Sensex 15834 but if Nifty Spot go to break the level of 4396 & Sensex------14565 then once again lower level can be tested. So selling pressure can be started near the level of Nifty 4771 & Sensex15834 before that there is a strong resistance of Nifty--- 4680, selling pressure can come there also.
Above levels are very strong levels, so please do not ignore when you do trade.
Due to the profit booking in the CRUDE OIL Market is running volatile & trading on the upper level. Inflation is continuously increasing in India & this impact will show all over sector. And due to the less rain in all the states, Inflation can increase more which main impact will show on the Auto, cement & power sectors. If rate of interest is continuously increase like this & did not do increase the prices of steel sectors then due to these sectors very reverse impact will show in the market.
Today if Nifty Future trade above the level of 4542 then it can go up to the level of 4600, 4636 to 4715 but if Nifty Future goes to break the level of 4542 then it can go below the level of 4492, 4420 to 4311.
Happy & Safe Trading
Daily Target:-
1) Buy BANKINDIA Above @ 294 Target 302-313 to 337.
2) Buy BOMDYEING Above @ 636 Target 644-652 to 672.
3) Buy HEROHONDA Above @ 825 Target 831-837 to 852.
4) Buy JETAIRWAYS Above @ 483 Target 494-506 to 535.
5) Buy PNB Above @ 501 Target 512-523 to 549.
6) Buy RCOM Above @ 440 Target 445-449 to 460.
7) Buy SBIN Above @ 1528 Target 1554-1586 to 1660.
8) Buy TATAMOTOR Above @ 441 Target 451-459 to 480.
9) Buy TCS Above @ 851 Target 860-872 to 898.
10) Sell UNITECH Below @ 175 Target 167-158 to 154.
11) Sell VSNL Below @ 449 target 429-408 to 398.
12) Sell TATAELEXSI Below @ 168 Target 160-151 to 147.
13) Sell RPL Below @ 164 Target 156-148 to 144.
14) Sell SAIL Below @ 145 Target 140-135 to 133.
15) Sell RANBAXY Below @ 504 Target 491-478 to 470.
Note--- If market open green then buy our buying tips and If market open red then sell our sell tips.
main Target level nifty--- 4033, 3484 & 2604 sensex-- 13538, 11727 & 9071.( date -21-03-2008)
Technical Analysis for 11th August 2008
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 15129, 15054, 14979, 14910, 14841, 14697, 14553, 14409
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 15198, 15267, 15342, 15417, 15561, 15705, 15849, 15993
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 4532, 4508, 4484, 4464, 4445, 4401, 4358, 4314
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4551, 4571, 4595, 4619, 4662, 4706, 4749, 4793
DOWNJONES CHART
TESTING WEEK FOR NIFTY
APTECHT
( Aptech Limited ) | Action | Trigger Price | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Target 2 |
| BUY ABOVE | 233 | 223 | 240 | 251 |
| S.SELL BELOW | 220 | 225 | 215 | 205 |
STER
( Sterlite Industries ( India ) Limited ) | Action | Trigger Price | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Target 2 |
| BUY ABOVE | 645 | 632 | 653 | 666 |
| S.SELL BELOW | 628 | 635 | 619 | 600 |
( Sesa Goa Ltd. ) | Action | Trigger Price | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Target 2 |
| BUY ABOVE | 176 | 173 | 180 | 185 |
| S.SELL BELOW | 172 | 174 | 169 | 164 |
Another interesting week of trading has gone by and the next 2 weeks for me will be very very interesting and important...Now almost all weeks are like this so you might wonder whats so special about this one?...I will explain. Lets start with the weekly.
Now what is important here is that the MACD has turned up and is on the verge of breakout out upward...BUT see the last time we were this close...It just kissed back and failed. I will be watching this one very intently for the signals that the same will happen.
Notice also how the stochastics gave an important intermediate term buy and is still on a buy.
I have been hammering the table about this important gem for a long time.
If I were to take a guess, I would say another kissback and failure for the MACD but let the market tell us that.
Now next the daily. We have a breakout out of the channel and we are targetting higher levels of 4720-4750. Important fibo levels in both retracement terms of the bigger decline and the recent more smaller decline. 4800 odd should be tremendous resistance and I would wager we fail before we get there...
I also think that the next SIGNIFICANT low will be a major major BUY point. You can refer my counts from earlier and see why I think so. ABC-X-ABC after which a big multi-month rally.
This is still what I am thinking and still sticking with it.
Here is the chart I had posted some time back. See the lines drawn predicting possible moves for the market and see market action up to date. It performed quite well for me and was able to make some bucks. However its still sad how ppl ridicule EWT..Recently on a forum I frequent many folks came out making fun of EWT...Its funny when ppl do not understand something, then like to laugh at it..I dont hold it against them...Its just ignorance.
I make it a point never to belittle a new method but instead try to understand and prove it right or wrong...If its useful, its a good tool to add to your arsenal. If not, well let it go. This is the hallmark or a good trader. Also finding out what works for you and sticking with it. Its very important to be open to new ideas when trading in the financial markets.
Okay enough of preaching. Lets look at the hourly also. At this point nothing is clear from this one. I am not going to try to count the subwaves because it is just not clear...I do believe however that we are still doing an ABC correction upward after which we should go lower...
Maybe a retest of 3800 or maybe a bit lower. Again dont expect this to happen all of a sudden. Tops and Bottoms are very painstaking affairs. Give it time.
Buy MMTC - Target 29000 - Within 3 Months
Buy Cadila Healthcare - Target 365 - Within 2 Months
Buy Karnataka Bank - Target 170 - Within 3 Months
Buy ING Vysya Bank - Target 260 - Within 3 Months
Buy Canara Bank - Target 250 - Within One Month
Buy Naukri.com - Target 910 - Within One Month
Buy Welspun Gujarat - Target 385 - 2 Months
Buy Torrent Power - Target 140 - 2 Months
BALANCING ACT IN NIFTY
This weekly chart of Nifty August Futures shows a perfect balanced position which can turn either way depending on the price action in the next couple of weeks. INFLATION AND STOCK INVESTMENT
Inflation crossed 12% level for the 1st time in 13 years. Investors are buying real estate stocks actively on Thursday. So, Investors will never learn from their past mistakes. I can't understand the logic behind the purchase the real estate stocks in recent days. Investors are buying stocks like DLF and Unitech to burn their fingers once again. Real Estate will be the worst performing sector in the coming days. Who will save these investors? I can't understand why these innocent investors are underestimating the impact of inflation. You will see the real effects of inflation and interest rate hikes on the performance of Indian companies in the next quarter results.
Significant news:
1. Inflation was at 12.01% Vs 11.98%. Inflation for the same week in 2007 was at 4.7%. See the difference and imagine its effect on the consumption power.
2. Largest American Insurance Company AIG fell most in 39 years after 3rd straight loss.
3. US jobless claims reached March, 2002 levels.
4. Sales would slow in August- Wal-Mart.
5. Crude Oil prices broke crucial $120 resistance.
Why I am bearish on India over short term:
1. Inflation is at 13 year high.
2. Fiscal deficit is reaching alarming proportions. India is set for down gradation by International rating agencies unless it takes crucial measures.
3. RBI will continue to hike interest rates in the coming weeks. There is more than 20% downside in inflation sensitive stocks.
4. Consumption power of people will be severely affected due to these successive interest rate hikes.
5. Most Indian companies will announce disappointing results in Q2.
6. Recent pull back rally set to reverse as in any bear market.
7. There will be no aggressive reforms in the election year except in Insurance sector.
Significant statistic:
Business Optimism Index fell to 136.5 points in Q2F2009 from 153.7 points in Q1FY2009. It is expected to touch 110 points in Q3FY2009. It means business leaders are not optimistic about their business prospects. But investors are optimistic about business prospects. So they are buying their company shares at these levels. What a pity it is! Who will save these investors?
My estimation: GDP growth for FY 2009 may be at around 7.5%.
Chaturvedi committee suggested "Super profit tax" for oil companies. Bad news for Reliance Industries and Cairn Energy.
Hopes on Crude: Investors are betting on news that crude prices will fall to below $110 levels which are now trading at $116 level. Fall in crude oil prices will only act as short term trigger.
Verdict: When will RBI hike Repo rate? Who will save these careless investors? Why don't they do even basic research on fundamentals? If Central Government fails to control fiscal deficit, rating agencies will downgrade India to BB+ from BBB- (current rating). China rating is A+ while Russia rating is A-. Where will foreign investors park their money? Don't expect any control measures in election year. Investors should look at their portfolios and plan to exit overvalued stocks.
MARKET CONFIRMS THE BOTTOM
The markets are willing to pay some extra bucks to hold the rate sensitive sectors and the worst effected sectors in case of growth slowdown. The Inflation effects the most when the rise continues, markets throw for a toss sectors gained the most in this week. In my earlier write-up motioned that “Let the Under Performers perform…….
The markets gained confidence in the economy and the good time to pick up the rates sensitive sectors like auto sector, Reality and the beaten down financial institutions along with cement and Sugar gained most when compared to last week closings at F&O when the Nifty gained only 2.5 percent.
The Maruti added 16% growth on WOW, Ashok Leyland added 14.7% Bajaj Holidings gained 14%, Tata Motors added 11.7% and M&M by 10%.
The IDBI added 15%, HDFC Bank by 13%,ICICI, Kotak, IndusInd and Indian Bank gained more than 11 percent.
The cement majors like Grasim gained by 10%, Ultracem by 10.8% and India cements made a 9.34% growth on WOW.
The reality sector and the Sugar stocks added value in the second week running. The stocks like Essar Oil and Aptech gained more than 15% deserves a special mention.
The weakening sectors/ some are making consolidation at the lower levels-the prominent are the Tata Steel,, Nalco, Bhushan steel, Jindal steel, RIL, RPL, Siemens, I-flex, Rolta and pharma majors like Lupin, Bio-con and STAR.
BUY RATNAMANI METALS AND TUBES
CMP = Rs 786 (at the time of this recommendation)
Key points:
- The revenues of Ratnamani Metals and Tubes Ltd (RMTL) grew by 31.4% to Rs 249.7 crore on account of a strong volume growth in both the stainless steel and carbon steel pipe segments. The operating profit of the company grew by 24.1% to Rs 56.4 crore in the quarter. The operating profit margin declined by 133 basis points to 22.6% due to an increase in the other expenses. The company's other expenses as a percentage of sales increased by 353 basis points to 11.2% in Q1FY2009.
- RMTL's interest cost declined by 29.8% while its depreciation charge rose by 20.9% in Q1FY2009. During the quarter, the company made a provision to the tune of Rs 7.86 crore for a mark-to-market loss on its exposure to forex contracts. The reported net profit increased by 12.6% in the quarter.
- The combined order book of the company stood at Rs 700 crore at the end Q1FY2009 as against Rs 650 crore for the same period last year. At the current market price, the stock trades at price-to-earnings of 6.2x and 5.2x its FY2009 and FY2010 estimates.
- I maintain a strong Buy call on this stock with a price target of Rs 1,110.
After almost seven straight months we had a sustainable bullish fifth week of gains in NIFTY.As highlighted by me in my previous weeks post.For Nifty we are rising but rising with all the pessimistic view around.The truth is that we are rising and as someone has said,"The best outcome is the Truth itself."To be truthful I was myself surprised by the movements seen in Rathi Udyog last week.(Disclosure: Its a TSR Long term Pick.)
If traders see one year chart of Nifty EOD.After the January fall and the first bounce witnessed in Nifty.There was a belief in trading circles that the market has bottomed out.Most analysts including me did not expected a time wise correction that will make nifty see 3800 odd levels.On June 20th 2008 when nifty first pierced the 4500 levels on a closing basis.Most of the technical analysts inclusing me did not anticipated 3800.If we see a reverse view at the current junture at the current level most of the analysts in any medium of media are negative on the markets.Most are trying to call the Top.They have been shameless failures in last two months and continue to do so.On June 20,2008,most of the traders I interacted with were long in the falling markets.At the same time most traders I interact with now are short in the markets.If anyone has found me even 1% correct,take my simple views that on EOD basis Nifty doesnt demand a short.Moreover traders should be cautious with there positions.Do note that markets always bottom out before the economic events bottom out.The above statement has been time tested and stands even in thr current market.Do note that when fundamental analyst call bear market.Markets have bottomed out and might undergo a phase of consolidation.
Both Nifty Macd and RSI are showing further move on upside.I am personally not overly bullish on markets But at the same time I am strictly not negative on Indian markets.Going ahead to coming week the commodities sell off will bring in further upmove in indian equity markets.
FACTORS TO WATCH OUT
IIP DATA ON 12.08.08
DATA FROM USA
ALSO WATCH OUT FOR FII FIGURES IN INDEX FUTURES
NIFTY SUPPORTS 4464,4386
NIFTY RESISTANCE 4625,4735
STRATEGY BUY ON DIPS.BOOK PROFITS ONLY ABOVE 4723.
WEEKLY CALL UPDATES :
DABUR : HOLD ON AS STOCK IS STILL IN THE BUY RANGE GIVEN ..MUNDRA : THOSE HOLDING FOR SECOND TARGET CAN EXIT ABOVE 600 THIS WEEK..ELECTROSTEEL,GMRINFRA,KALPATARU POWER ALL STOCKS ACHIEVED BOTH THEIR TARGETS LAST WEEK.
DERIVATIVE STRATEGY
NIFTY CHART
BULLISH STRATEGIES
(1) HINDALCO
Buy Aug. 150 CA @ 5.00
Sell Aug. 160 CA @ 2.25
BEP: 153.75
Max. Profit: 11563.75(7.25*1595)
Max. Loss: 4386.25(2.75*1595)
BEARISH STRATEGIES
(2) CAIRN
Buy Aug. 230 PA. @ 8.00
Sell Aug. 220 PA. @ 4.50
BEP: 226.50
Max. Profit: 8150(6.5*1250)
Max. Loss: 4375(3.5*1250)
VOLATILITY BASED STRATEGIES
NIFTY ANALYSIS
(3) ICICIBANK
Buy Aug. 760 CA. @ 20.00
Put Call Ratio Analysis
Buy Aug. 700 PA. @ 20.00
The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has decreased to 1.25 from 1.33. End of week maximum
stocks had positive trend of change in put call open interest ratio.
Upside BEP: 800.00
Downside BEP : 660.00
Implied Volatility Analysis
Max. Profit: Unlimited
Max. Loss: 7000(20+20)*175
The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week has increased to 33.84% from 33.00%. The IV
of the stock futures has changed this week ranging from 6.80% to –24.74%.
(4) RPOWER
Buy Aug. 180 CA @ 8.00
Buy Aug. 160 PA. @ 7.50
Open Interest Analysis
The open interest for the index at the end of this week has increased by 11.15% as compared to
Upside BEP:195.50
the previous week. All Future stocks saw changes in their open interest ranging from 21.61% to
Downside BEP: 144.50
Max. Profit: Unlimited
–89.30%. ONGC saw the highest change in its open interest in positive side while ITC saw the
Max. Loss: 7750(8.00+7.50)*500
biggest decline in open interest as compared to other stocks.
(5) RELIANCE
Buy Aug. 2340 CA @ 45
Statistical Analysis
Buy Aug. 2190 PA. @50
Open
4,402.00
High 4,629.85
Upside BEP: 2435
Downside BEP: 2095
Low 4,362.10
Max. Profit: Unlimited
Max. Loss: 7125(45+50)*75
Close 4,547.45
(6) IFCI
Change
114.60 (2.59%)
Buy Aug. 55 CA. @ 2.20
Buy Aug. 45 PA @ 1.60
Current Statistics
CURRENT % CHANGE FROM LAST VALUE
Smoothed R-squared
0.435
- 0.458
Upside BEP: 58.80
Downside BEP: 41.20
Standard Error
301.132 0.691
Max. Profit: Unlimited
Max. Loss: 7486(2.20+1.60)*1970
Linear Regression Slope
41.831
- 1.111
(7) CHAMBALFERT
MACD Value
- 212.342
11.402
Buy Aug. 75 PA @ 3.25
Buy Aug. 90 CA. @ 3.50
Signal Line
- 207.940 - 0.53
Stochastic Oscillator (5,3)
83.674 31.683
Upside BEP: 96.75
Downside BEP: 68.25
Max. Profit: Unlimited
·The current trough of rsquared is greater than the previous trough. This indicates strength of the
Max. Loss: 23287.50(3.25+3.50)*3450
long-term trend.
(8) TATASTEEL
·The standard error is 142.497 At this level there is much higher than normal volatility around the
Buy Aug. 680 CA. @22.00
current trend and traders are probably not in general agreement, not allowing the security to trend
Buy Aug. 620 PA. @ 20.00
easily. The price is probably not following the regression slope well.
·Bollinger Bands are 66.01% wider than normal. The current width of the bands (alone) does not
Upside BEP: 722
* BEP- Break
suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.
Downside BEP: 578
Even
Max. Profit:Unlimited
·Currently the MACD is since it is trading below its signal line.
bearish
Point.
Max. Loss: 16044(22+20)*382
MARKET OUTLOOK
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
Going forward, volatility is expected to remain as IIP numbers are to be out . We expect Nifty to trade in the range of 4400-5050 this week. The possible levels for Nifty on theupside beyond 4550 are 4780 and 5050; however, the
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