Market may open up. Market may up between 10.34 and 10.54. Market may steady or up side between 11.45 and 12.07. Market may close at down to previous closing.
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Opening Bell Call
Buy
AXISBANK - Axis Bank Limited
DLF - DLF Limited
NIITTECH - NIIT Technologies Limited
ELECON - Elecon Engineering Co Ltd
IFCI - IFCI Limited
RNRL - Reliance Natural Resources Limited
On 6th August 2008 - The BSE Sensex closed at 15,073 (up 112 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 4,517 (up 14 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
NDTV - New Delhi Television Limited
I-FLEX - I-Flex Solutions Limited
NAGARCONST - Nagarjuna Construction Co. Ltd
PRAJIND - Praj Industries Ltd
ROLTA - Rolta India Ltd.
RELINFRA - Reliance Infrastructure Limited
Technical Analysis for 7th August 2008
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 15176, 15054, 14931, 14860, 14789, 14596, 14402, 14209
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 15247, 15318, 15441, 15563, 15757, 15950, 16144
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 4545, 4510, 4475, 4454, 4433, 4377, 4321, 4265
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 4566, 4587, 4622, 4687, 4622, 4657, 4713, 4769
Date 07/08/2008 Thursday
DATE INDICATOR GREEN- BULLISH RED - BEARISH YELLOW- WAIT & WATCH
Alert :-- Please do not hold any long position and go home, any time bears will attack. So please be alert now.
As we said that if DOW gives the closing of 300+ then DOW will go bearish & you all have seen that result on the Indian Market that it did not sustain on upper level. Whole market has been gone bearish & next coming days will be very dangerous. We are continuously giving the warning that please does not keep any long position. All technical analysts which comes on TV, they all know about the market that what will happen in the market in future but no body give the right information to the small investor, only we are giving the right information & in future also do the same.
Today if Nifty Future crosses the level of 4538 then it can go up to the level of 4616 to 4691 but its very difficult to happen but if Nifty Future trade below the level of 4538 then it can go below the level of 4480, 4419 to 4190.
Happy & Safe Trading
Daily Target:-
1) Buy ACC Above @ 644 Target 654-669 to 701.
2) Buy BHARTI Above @ 878 Target 891-910 to 952.
3) Buy COLGATE Above @ 437 Target 451-473 to 519.
4) Buy INFOSYS Above @ 1707 Target 1739-1774 to 1857.
5) Buy M&M Above @ 566 Target 582-599 to 639.
6) Buy TCS Above @ 862 Target 878-892 to 928.
7) Sell WIPRO Below @ 449 Target 429-407 to 395.
8) Sell SUZLON Below @ 242 Target 230-218 to 212.
9) Sell RCOM Below @ 447 Target 436-425 to 419.
10) Sell ONGC Below @ 1015 Target 993-970 to 958.
11) Sell JPASSO Below @ 185 Target 174-163 to 158.
12) Sell INDIACEM Below @ 160 Target 151-140 to 135.
13) Sell HPCL Below @ 238 Target 225-211 to 204.
14) Sell GRASIM Below @ 2042 Target 1962-1882 to 1840.
15) Sell CANBK Below @ 217 Target 206-196 to 190.
Note--- If market open green then buy our buying tips and If market open red then sell our sell tips.
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main Target level nifty--- 4033, 3484 & 2604 sensex-- 13538, 11727 & 9071.( date -21-03-2008)
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The Indian market opened on gap-up note but not able sustain at higher levels and saw profit booking .As nifty had kiss 100SMA 4620 and reversal from there and close marginally up. For the coming session 4451 will act as support zone 4630 will act strong resistances zone , we can see some sideway or consolidation between 4360-4600 zone .
| GODFREY PH (500163) - 6 Aug. Price: 1505.35 |
| GODFREY PH does not show any clear trend. The stock has broken a resistance level and given a positive signal for the long-term trading range. The stock is between the support at 1440 and the resistance at 1550. A definitive break through of one of these levels predicts the new direction. Volume tops and volume bottoms correspond well with tops and bottoms in the price. This strengthens the stock. Trading volume has increased substantially lately. This shows there is an increased interest for the stock, possibly because of fundamental news. The stock is overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term. |
| The medium long term: Positive candidate |
(Sell) PUNJ LLOYD

as shown in the chart and discussed before 15400-15800 zone is a very tough resistance band and at 15100 it was a stated if the dip doesnt go below 13500 markets could take a shot at 15800.
Currently the trendline support is roughly around 14600-14700 which is a level to watch for short term players. On the upside traders can be very stock specific or book around 15400-15800 zone and later wait for a close above 16000 to take fresh positions.
Strategy :
Earlier all through the correction below 14200 the view was to accumulate good quality stocks for long term . Lot of our favourite stocks have gone much beyond targets and have been overperformers!! SBI , RCAP , BOI ,LIC , tata Chemicals etc etc have actually bounced 30-50 % from the lows . Lot of trading calls have given good returns whenever the markets have given a good upswing. Now as was suggested to book half or more of holdings at 15000-15100 earlier would now suggest to book completely the stock bought during 12500-14500 at 15400-15800 index and then take a fresh look again if we sustain above 16000 or wait for dips.
Traders can continue to be stock specific and trade with strict stoplosses and be cautious
Review :
Yesterday as was put up that we had lot many stock calls which were open for short term . Today partial/half booking was advised at higher levels in the morning and later some of them hit trailing stoplosses so the no of stocks in the trading portfolio reduced to a large extent. Yet again would be looking for fresh positions ! ....
Bhel , crompton , bharat forge gave a good move up frm the charts put up . Edelweiss went till 670 before cracking .. Reliance still not crossing 2350 convincingly ...SUGARS ARE ROCKING and we continue to remain bullish over medium term but booking to some extent was advised.
Triveni Engg given at 95 overshooted our tgt of 112, Renuka partial booking at 140 advised. Andhra sugars, Sakthi sugars gave good 20-30 % gains.
Stocks to watcchout for :
HMT , ITI are seeing lot of speculative buying . Close above 81 and 43 would lead to another 10-15% spurt.
Reliance Inds has a crucial resistance at 2350 . A close above would take it to 2500 . 2200 on a lower sidde is a level to watch .
Hotel Leela seemss to have bottomed if it sustains above 35 could see a bounce to 40-45 levels but a high risk pick as stop is placed at 31.
Sun Pharma advanced .... good buying seen in the counter . If it sustains above 85 one can go long for short to medium term .
1. Indian stock market direction: Oil is easing and effect is visible in the Asian and European markets. Fed kept the rate unchanged as predicted yesterday.If Nifty can hold 4149 one can see a bull run in Nifty and Nifty can target 4700 level.
2. Profit from wednesday tips: GMR Infrastructures gave a profit of Rs 350 (GMR Infrastructure achieved a high of 110 in wednesday trading and presently one can enter the stock only if it starts trading above 105.1 for a target of 107,110.However charts suggest that stock is overbought and a correction is in offing in the stock). Sail gave a profit of Rs 430, ONGC gave a profit of Rs 2000, IEA did not reach the entry price (however one can enter this stock as and when it crosses above the level of Rs 94.1 as recommended in yesterday tip, Neyveli lignite gave a profit of rs 370, Rpl gave a profit of Rs 80 (now do not buy this stock until and unless it conclusively crossess 177 level) and Torrent power gave a profit of Rs 210.
3. Free Strong Future Stocks update for Indian share market
Triveni
IDBI
Penin Land
Bongaigaon refinery
Ubi
Can Bank
LIC
MRPL
Essar Oil
BOB
4. Analyse trend of stock by comparing with weak Future Stocks data
Moser Bear
Sun TV
Aban Llyod
Amtek
BEL
Dr Reddy
Financial Technology
Sterlite
Strling biotech
GTL
5. Make money daily with intraday tips for India:
Buy ONGC>1020.5,1027,1037 sl 1016
Buy HOEC>140.1,143,148 sl 138.8
Buy Unitech>182.1,185,189 sl 179.5
Buy Larsen and Toubro>2773.1,2800,2813,2865 sl 2759.8
Buy Telco>431.1,435,440 sl 426.8
Sell Tata Steel<638.8,629,615>27.7,28.4,29.3 sl 26.5 (Investors can buy TTML and can hold it for 3 months to get atleast 25% returns.)
VOLTAS HAS A BREAKOUT FROM THE FALLING WEDGE
THE STACK CAN REACH TO 200 IN AMONTH
CMP: 138.5TARGET: 196 STOP LOSS: 120
![[voltas_8806.jpg]](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixtE2vB9rAW6cwhEJb9-xQOqkgXxp99BHo-PfwADS5FlAB258yFXXGbvcyjJhlewTc1u5ZtcF1X13mJqmPn1GAZmNuCjED0R92XIC9-BmpDaPOsOMW7r_QJCwK6MLJuA9edSJI4RBiN2E/s1600/voltas_8806.jpg)
MARUTI HAS A BREAKOUT FROM THE FALLING WEDGE
THE STACK CAN REACH TO 800 IN AMONTH
CMP: 651.70 TARGET: 800 STOP LOSS: 614
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Click on chart to enlargeBreakouts JYOTISTRUC and NIITTECH
morning thoughts..
As said and expected the markets reacted from the resistance zones of 15500.
Technically the markets are still in an over stretched zone and some more profit booking is likely.
However the structure of the markets looks ok .
After continous rise some mere profit taking is inevitable and necessary.
Moreover the markets are likely to be volatile and two sided movements
The supports for the nifty is at 4425 levels and resistance at 4615 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14700 levels and resistance at 15400 levels
Stocks to watch
Atlanta
Crew bros
Hind organics

Nifty :: Exactly correct just below our highlighted first resistance level and made too many bearish candle pattern., An Inverted Hammer,A Spinning top,A Shooting star,A long upper shadow.. Mid term momentum still up, may be some consolidation at current level with short term negative bias.. Watch important level 4516 above it momentum up, below 4516 momentum down.. Next important supports comes at 4485/4480, below it strong support near 4446 and last two strong breakout support at 4404/4385.. Resistance for up move at 4540/4624/4631/4716.. Our strategy for 7th Aug. Buy on dip(S.L 4385) Sell at high (S.L 4631)..
STOCK OF THE DAY :
NAME: risky trade: SHORT ESSAR OIL (228-229)
SL : 234
TRGT: 223-220-218
REVISED SL TO : 231 IF 225 IS ACHVD/BOOK 50% AT TRGT ONE AND WAIT FOR TRGT 2 AND SL AT COST IF 223 IS ACHVD. PLAY SAFE
Point to Watch: 4418
Support: 4504, 4493, 4460(68), 4418, 4400, 4395, 4340, 4324, 4318, 4227, 4254, 4176, 4168
Resistance: 4550, 4595, 4600, 4651.5
********Technicals*****
Nifty is in uptrend.
Today nifty traded above 4539 but does not close above it.
Long upper shadow also formed today which is bearish.
I said that profit booking can come and it came today at higher levels, so time being nifty will be in range of 4450-4600 and 4360 will be solid support.
****Nifty**** ~ August 6~
Nifty august future premium decreased to 9 points. Open interest increased by 9 lacs today. ( new short ------ bearish)
***Options**** August 6~
Nifty call options add 24 lacs and put options add 23.7 lacs in open interest. Thus open interest put-call ratio decreased to 1.32.(bearish)
********Fund flow*** ~ August 5~
~FII index fut + 1012 cr
~FII stock fut – 506 cr
~FII cash + 64 cr
~Mut cash + 198 cr
*******total fund flow +768 cr today & nifty was up by 107 points.
*******So far net fund flow of -901 cr in August series. (So far nifty is up in August series).
***********Past fund flow**********
~ Net fund flow of +6474 cr in July series. (Nifty +15 in series, closed at 4333)
~ Net fund flow of -8071 cr in June series (Nifty -520 in series, closed at 4315)
infosys update
1. It is an important update for all those tracking Infosys as a slowdown is being seen in its hiring trend of employees.
2. Moreover the company is likely to see a wage moderation and decline in attrition rates.
3. Another important aspect to be considered is that its volume will be a key concern but they will be comfortable in their pricing policies.
3. Infosys expect rupee to be violent and
It was one of those days today when the Nifty opened with a positive bias due to better global cues and remained high for a better part of the day, only to enter a phase of profit booking and lose all its gains in a little more than an hour's time.
In the process, it seems that the Nifty has made a doji candle. A doji candle is one on which the open and the close price is the same or exactly the same. Which means that a doji candle may have a long (or short) shadows but a virtually non-existant body. An abnormal shutdown during the course of updation of today's prices in my charting software has produced some error on it. Because of this error, I have not been able to attach a chart today. But with the doji coming in after a big move up may signify that the bulls are tiring out and we may see some profit booking now, which in turn would make the outlook for Nifty negative for a couple of days at least.
Seeing yesterday's chart, we can see that the support was near 4500 as provided by the neckline. Below this, support comes in near the downward sloping trendline which is now near 4400. A move below 4400 could bring it back to 4200 while above today's high of near 4600, it would turn bullish. The head and shoulders pattern cancels below 4150.
BUY BGR ENERGY
Dated August 6, 2008
BGR ENERGY (321)
The BANGALORE based co is into supply of systems and Equipment and Turnkey Engineering project contracting.
Buy for a 1st target of 350 and 2nd target of 400 with a stop loss of 300
Time Tenor: 1 month
Risk Reward Ratio = 1:1.30 and 1:3.95
Probable Profit % = 9% and 24%
Probable Loss % = 7%
GRAVE STONE DOJI

Gravestone DOji is one of the gravest reversal signals on the Candlesticks. The Gravestone Doji is described as:
A "gravestone doji," as the name implies, is probably the most ominous candle of all. On that day, prices rallied, but could not stand the "altitude" they achieved. By the end of the day they came back and closed at the same level. The example is as shown in the jpg image.
I am sure that most of you visiting this site would have been already aware of this. The point is that does this spell the doom that we have been waiting for or the markets will have the momentum and the wherewithal to brush it aside and move ahead. Frankly the fall that we saw towards the end of the session was not really anticipated. It just goes to show that there can be no laid back attitude when dealing in stocks and that either you are awake during the trading session or trail stop losses. Now comes the hard part -- do we define the candle today as a doji? Let us see -- the open was 4506, low was 4504, high was 4616 and the close was 4518.
This breaks down into
upper wick -- 98 points
lower wick -- 2 points
body -- 12 points
the problem as I see lies with the body 12 points - had it been lower the better it would have been.
The related point that confuses me is -- are we really above the 61.8% retracement or are we below it? Actually I write what I see on the iCharts - and I realised that the charts may not be very accurate. In any case we can declare that the close was around the 61.8% retracement and this level remains as a resistance yet to be convincingly broken. So the vote on seeing the above evidence is definitely against the bulls. They could not save a 100 point rally from being taken by the bears! Give me a break.
The Europe closed in green but the journey through the day was painful hovering around the neutral line and recovering only around the closing. FTSE was up 0.58%, DAX up 0.65% and CAC up 1.41%. Infact it was only CAC that remained convincingly up in green through the session. The US opened flat to red and later recovered closing well in green with the better than expected results of Cisco and drop in crude prices. The asia has not taken the US cues and has opened red. Nikkei down 1.29% and strait times down .57% as of now.
Next I will list out the bullish indicators and the berarish indicators and leave the "what will the markets do tomorrow" to you. Of course the bullish ones come first.
MACD
RSI
TRIX
ADX
Head and shoulder pattern being advocated strongly
Trailing along upper edge of bollinger bands
Mass Index is not signalling a trend reversal so far.
Crude down by 87 cents.
The bearish indicators are next
SlowStochastic redline has crossed below the blue line and both lines individually are in over bought zone.
StochRSI in overbought zone.
Gravestone Doji.
SUZLON
( Suzlon Energy Limited ) | Action | Trigger Price | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Target 2 |
| BUY ABOVE | 245 | 243 | 248 | 255 |
| S.SELL BELOW | 241 | 244 | 238 | 233 |
( Bharat Forge Ltd ) | Action | Trigger Price | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Target 2 |
| BUY ABOVE | 272 | 270 | 280 | 291 |
| S.SELL BELOW | 267 | 271 | 259 | 249 |
( Bajaj Hindusthan Ltd ) | Action | Trigger Price | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Target 2 |
| BUY ABOVE | 184 | 181 | 190 | 199 |
| S.SELL BELOW | 179 | 182 | 174 | 164 |
Multi Bagger: Natco Pharma Recommended Price Rs 74.15
Natco Pharma - a Discovery led pharma company with strong R&D capabilities, with potential for significant increase in revenues on account of the company’s entry into retail pharma space in US and its tie-up with Mylan Inc. and with the additional cushion being in the form of land bank valued more than the company’s current market cap, is attractive at the current PE of 6.Natco Pharma was promoted by Mr V.C. Nannapaneni in the year 1981 as a Private Limited Company to be in the business of Research, Developing, Manufacturing and Marketing of Pharmaceutical Substances and Finished Dosage forms for Indian and International markets. NATCO PHARMA began operations in 1984 in Andhra Pradesh, India. The company which began operations with one manufacturing plant and 20 employees today has four manufacturing facilities and 1500 employees. NATCO also has the credit of being one of the largest contract manufacturers in India.
Some of the well-known companies like Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, John Wyeth etc. get their products manufactured by NATCO. The company’s bulk drug and Intermediate facility at Mekaguda, in Andhra Pradesh is certified for its environmental management systems (ISO-14001) and is US-FDA approved plant.
Natco Pharma is a leader in the Oncology segment and is ranked No.1 amongst Indian companies in the Oncology segment in terms of revenues from the domestic market. Strong Research Base:
The company has a strong research base and has developed various Oncology and non-Oncology drugs. As a recognition of its strong research capabilities, the company has recently been conferred the National Award -2008 by Technology Development Board, Government of India, Ministry of Science and Technology for indigenous technology developed by the company in life saving anti-cancer drugs.
New drug discovery: The company has developed a new molecule NRC 19 for treatment of Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML) which is cancer of the blood in which too many granulocytes, a type of white blood cell, are produced in the marrow. The company has applied for Phase I of Clinical Trials. Successful clinical trials and commercialization of the Drug will lead to substantial benefits for the company
Acquisition of pharma retail companies in US: The company has been increasing its presence in Pharma Retail in US through the inorganic route. The company has over the past year and a half acquired three Pharma Retail chains in the US – Savemart Drugs, Nicks Drugs and Newark Drugs. These stores are capable of adding Rs.150 crores towards Sales Revenues for the company in a year. The company is scouting for more acquisitions in this space in the US.
Tie-up with Mylan Inc: The company has recently entered into a Tie-Up with the Pittsburgh based Mylan Inc., for worldwide marketing and distribution of Glatiramer Acetate. The drug is sold as Copaxone R - a registered trade mark owned by Teva Pharmaceutical, Israel. Natco has signed a license and supply agreement today with Mylan for its (NATCO’s) Glatiramer Acetate pre-filled syringes, a generic version of Teva’s Copaxone R, which is used to treat multiple sclerosis. The agreement grants Mylan exclusive distribution rights in the United States and all major markets in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Canada, and includes an option to expand into additional territories. Teva’s market cap and profitability is a function of Copaxone, which, with brand sales of nearly $2 billion officially, returns a profitability of 50%-70%.
Land bank near Hyderabad Airport: The company has substantial land bank near the Hyderabad Airport (close to 300 Acres). As per a few press reports of Dec 2007-Jan 2008, the land is valued at around Rs.350 crores. Factoring a possible decline that might have taken place in land values in view of the recent real estate slowdown, the land may be valued at around Rs.250 crores on a conservative estimates - this is more than the current market cap of the company.
Conclusion:
Natco Pharma is a leader in Oncology segment and has strong research capabilities. The acquisition of pharma retail chains viz – SaveMart Drugs, Nicks Drugs & Newark Drugs would lead to addition of Rs 150 crores in the revenues. The company infact is scouting for more acquisitions in this space. The company’s recent tie-up with Mylan Inc for worldwide marketing and distribution of Glatiramer Acetate, which is the generic version of Copaxone R owned by Teva Pharmaceuticals, may lead to significant addition to the company’s Topline and Bottomline. This however may be a long drawn process (may take 2-3 years) since regulatory and legal hurdles have to be crossed before the sales of the drug could start – Mylan Inc is expected to spend between $ 20-30 mn for regulatory approvals and clinical studies. Many analysts opine that Israeli major may try to block the launch of the product by dragging both Mylan and Natco to court since Teva is being threatened of its m onopolistic position and may try and block the sales through legal route. The near term growth for the company, however is expected to come from the domestic Oncology segment where the company expects to grow at 20%.
Natco Pharma achieved Sales and PAT of Rs 228 crores and Rs 40 crores respectively for FY 08. This results in an EPS of Rs 12.28. The stock thus trades at a PE of 6. The icing on the cake however is the land bank which the company has near Hyderabad Airport – valued at Rs 250 crores on conservative estimates, is more than the current market cap of the company. Given the company’s current market cap of Rs.208 crores, there is thus a margin of safety or a cushion available incase of any adversity.
The stock available at a PE of 6 with company’s strong R&D capabilities, new Drug Discovery, potential for significant increase in revenues on account of the company’s entry into retail pharma space in US and its tie-up with Mylan Inc. and with the additional cushion being in the form of land bank valued more than the company’s current market cap, merits investment at the current levels.

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