Tuesday, August 12, 2008

NEWSLETTER FOR 12.08.08



Balrampurchini : (93.65) Buy Balramchin above 92 for a short term target of 106, if cross 106 then goes up to 128, stoploss at 83.

Nagarfert : (42.25) Buy Nagarfert above 42 for a target of short term target of 52, stoploss at 37.


Sensex : (15503.92) Today Sensex face resistance at 15630, if cross 15630 then goes up to 15750 and 15877. Sensex find support at 15395, if 15395 break then goes down up to 15273-15042.

Nifty : (4620.40) Today Nifty face resistance at 4655, if cross 4655 then goes up to 4690 and 4750. Nifty find support at 4591, if 4591 break then next down target is 4556 and 4493. In next few days Nifty may face its biggest resistance at 4774, if some how Nifty break 4774 and close above that then its every possibility that Nifty touch its 200 DMA at 5100. If 4774 is not break in upside then Nifty again fall back to 4500-4350.


UTV SOFTWARE (532619)
- 11 Aug. Price: 780.05
An approximate horizontal trend is broken up. A continued strong development is indicated, and the stock now meets support on possible reactions down towards the trend lines. Has also broken a resistance level in the short term and given a positive signal for the short-term trading range. The stock is testing the support at 750. This should give a positive reaction, but a downward breakthrough of 750 means a negative signal. Volume tops correspond well with price tops, and volume bottoms correspond well with price bottoms. This strengthens the trend break. The stock is overall assessed as technically positive for the medium long term.
The medium long term: Positive candidate


Intraday Pick :: (Buy) RELIANCE INFRA


Pivot Levels for NIFTY 50 Stocks (12 Aug 2008)



Sensex / Nifty Outlook for 12 Aug 2008





Sensex Technical View:

Sensex is finally cruising towards the target of 15800 which has been the tgt being repeated many times in the last few weeks. As we see in the chart above 61% retracement level comes to 15800 zone . The 1st trendline breakout has taken place and to a higher side the market can go till 16400 which is the second trendline resistance .

Technically the upside for the current rally is capped arnd 16400 .A breakout move sustaining 16500 would be surprising and i dont expect such a move ! .

Strategy :
For the last few months the view was to buy on dips from 14100 to 12500 in quality large caps and mid caps . We have been advising continously so in the last few weeks and in the previous pull up was recommended to book 50-70 % long term buying done on lower levels. Now at 15800-16400 zone the strategy should be to generate cash !!!!!!!!!!! in the long term portfolio for investors.

Investors stuck in stocks at higher levels can also look to reduce some qty to create cash which can be reshuffled into a better stronger portfolio in dips. In the current pullback our favs RCAP , SBI , BOI , LIC Housing , Tata Chemicals etc etc have been the best perfomers with 50-60 % up from the lows. As part of the disciplined investing its good to book profits and generate cash at this juncture.


Stocks to watchout for :

Abg shipyard and Bharti have started bouncing and could do 380-400 and 340 where one can book. Century textiles , Hindalco , SCI look to exit in next 2 sessions. Inox, Patel engg gave a good bounce back, Rajesh exp and bank of mah shud in coming days.

All the const space stocks look good technically for a bounce back in extreme short term .

HDIL ( 502 ) , HCC ( 106 ) , Patel Engg ( 450-454 ) , JP associates( 191 ) are the stocks recommended today to clients for ext short term and small tgts.

Unitech buy arnd 187 stop of 181 for a tgt of 198-210.

DCB if closes above 60 could give a quick 10 % move.

Reliance 2350-2370 is a crucial level which if crossed could lead to a move to 2500 and give markets a good push up.



Nifty crossed resistence of 4630 and closed above it, it is definately bullish for tgt of 4675-4710 .

however 4615 shouldnt be broken for intraday



Breakouts GVKPIL INDIABULLS

morning thoughts..

The markets moved as expected following the global cues but got stuck at resistance zones.
Technically the market could face resistance around 4675-4700 zones.
Structurally the markets are ok and some more upsides looks in the offering.
However after a couple of sessions of good upmoves , some profit booking is viable in the second half of the markets.
Moreover the markets looks in an overstretched zone and is in calling of volatility.
I will not be surprised to see markets reacting from the resistance zones and retest 4550-4600 levels.
From a trading point of view I will be cautious
The supports for the nifty is at 4425 levels and resistance at 4700 levels
The supports for the sensex is at 14700 levels and resistance at 15700 levels


Stocks to watch

With the shift of autonomous Jupiter in the 3rd house of Sagittarius in the interface of mercury – construction and realty sector will outperform the markets.


Positional calls

Idfc 110 ca – bought idfc 110 call option

With the change of malfecious moon into 9th house of markets – astro eye sees the crash in the month of …..?


Nifty :: And in last hour Nifty break strong resistance 4615 and close above it.. Still Nifty is in rising channel, no doubt about up trend. Nifty close near strong resistance zone.. Watch first resistance zone near 4650 and second near 4700/4725.. Strong support at 4594/4555.. Avoid buying at higher level. Our strategy for 12th Aug. above 4594 buy on dip (S.L 4555) sell at high(S.L 4725).. Resistance for up move at 4649/4700/4725/4768.. Supports 4594/4555/4533/4498/4470…

The Indian market opened on gap-up note and traded in narrow range through the session. Bulls comes back on last hour of trading session and broken the narrow range and close near days high . For coming session nifty can test 4680-4711 levels and we can see some profit booking at 4680 levels for longs one can keep stoploss 4573

STOCK OF THE DAY :
NAME: IDBI AROUND 93
SL : 91
TRGT: 95-96
REVISED SL TO : 92.2 IF 94.8 IS ACHVD.(SMALL QUANTITY/RISKY TRADE)

stock to watch fintech.....

reliance and ongc

1. Reliance has a target of Rs 2550-2600 in case stock is able to cross the level of Rs 2351.
2. However stock may consolidate in few coming days and if it falls below 2199 then the stock can touch the levels of Rs 2,175-2,100.
3. ONGC is likely to see strong resistance at Rs 1,101 level and presently stock will consolidate for

The Nifty opened in the green today on the back of strong global cues. The first minute of the day saw the Nifty trading above 4600. Since then, it has been a very dull day for the Nifty since it made a high of 4615 after that and a low of 4580, a range of only 35 points. This narrow range continued upto 3 pm when the Nifty did manage to go 10 points past its high of the day. The positive opening was good for the markets, the fact that it sustained near the highs was also good and closing near the highs was very good. It is the narrow range during the day that worries me since that is not exactly the sign of a breakout.


Nifty 60 minutes Chart - Breakout Achieved but Resistance Nearby Seen above is the 60 minutes chart of the Nifty. As suggested yesterday, the index was moving within a falling trend channel, which was looking bullish on the hourly charts since the Nifty went into this channel after a good rally. And a falling wedge or a falling trend channel under such circumstances happens to be a continuation pattern. And as expected, the Nifty did break out of this trend channel on the upside. This pattern breakout gives us a target of 5000 on the hourly charts.

But as already mentioned, it worries me that the Nifty stayed within a very narrow range today after a strong opening. I had mentioned yesterday that a ‘trending’ move may come about and today’s move was definitely not trending in any way. If we look at the tick by tick chart or the 5 minutes chart of the Nifty, we would see that the Nifty stayed sideways all day and didn’t give us a clear trend. What gives us solace was the fact that in the last half an hour it went up above its highs of the day and closed at those levels too.

As for the prediction for tomorrow, there is resistance close by near 4650 while support is also not very far off near 4570. A break out of this range should give us a decisive move. Another worrisome fact is that on the chart, while the Nifty is making higher highs, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), during the same period, is making lower highs, as has been marked by the green arrows. This indicates bearish divergence and a break below 4550 would indicate a trend reversal. So, in spite of the breakthrough today, the Nifty continues to be range bound and it is wise to be cautious. Probably, it is just an attempt to trap the bulls.

My readers would think that even in all this bullishness when the Nifty is moving up everyday, I still talk about bearish things only. Well, I am normally not so bearish but what can I do? This time around this upmove is not giving me the confidence that it normally should. We have seen bullish patterns like a bullish head and shoulders pattern and a falling trend channel pattern but unfortunately the breakouts have been far from perfect. Which is why I continue to stay cautious and that reflects in my writing too. Am I thinking too differently? Tell me readers, what do you think of the markets? What is your view of the markets in the next 2 days, the next 2 weeks, the next 2 months, and in the next 2 years?


Dated: August 11, 2008

TATA STEEL (650)

After a strong move from 580 to 705, the stock has now retraced and held onto a support @ 630.

Buy for a 1st target of 700 and 2nd target of 750 with a stop loss of 630.

Time Tenor: 2 Months

Risk Reward Ratio = 1:2.50 amd 1:5

Profit Probability % -- 7.5% and 15%

Loss Probability % -- 4.5%

MARKET WILL TAKE CUE FROM DEVELOPMENT OF MONSOON

Bse Sensex(15167.82) and Nifty(4529.50) closed approximately 3.5% and 2.6%up each last week . Inflation was at 12.01 v/s 11.98 and Crude fell to 115 $ which boosted the sentiments and bears were forced to cover their position.. Market will take cue from Crude oil prices and rainfall repots..Support for Sensex is 14600 and for Nifty 4380 Resistance level of for Sensex 15500 /15950 and 4650 /4755 for Nifty. Selective buying will be visible at every decline.
Nifty put-call ratio is 0.82 and highest open interest is build up at Nifty 4700 call options.

Strategy for Future & Option players

1)Cipla(235.05)-Lot Size-1250 shares
Buy One Call Of August Month Strike Price 230@8.65 Rs
Sell One Call Of August Month Strike Price 240@5.00 Rs.
Premium Paid=8.65*1250=10812.50 Rs.
Premium Received =5*1250==6250.00 Rs. .
Net Premium Paid=10812.50-6250.00=4562.50 Rs
Maximum Profit=240-230=10*1250=12,500.00-4562.50=7937.50 Rs..
Maximum Loss=4562.50 Rs.
Break even point=233.65 Rs.

2)Hindalco Future(146)-Lot Size-1595 shares
Buy One Lot of Hindalco August month Future@146.00
Sell Call Option August Month Strike Price 150@5.15 Rs.
Premium Received=5.15*1595=8214.25 Rs.
Maximum Profit=150-146=4.00+5.15=9.15*1595=14594.25 Rs.
Maximum Loss=Unlimited.

Trading Idea
1)Dr.Reddy(625.90)Buy this decline and trade.
2)Educomp(3425.25)Buy this stock in decline and trade..

SSPDL-Could This Stock Become The Proverbial Real Estate Multi-Bagger?
BSE 530821; CMP Rs 65

SSPDL (formerly Srinivasa Shipping and Property Development) is a three city Real Estate play on Bangalore, Hyderabad and Chennai markets. For the FY08, SSPDL reported a near Rs 100 crore in Revenues and an EPS of Rs 16. The scrip effectively quotes at a historical PE of 4 while the Industry led by the Real Estate biggies fetch a PE of 11.

Considering that SSPDL will deliver about 7 mn sq feet of built up space in the form of built up malls, commercial real estate, residential houses, apartments and villas in cities with a reasonably affluent populace, the current valuations are simply not reflective of the potential. With completion of ongoing projects SSPDL could become a Rs 1000 crore corporation by FY2012.

A recent study released by Cushman and Wakefield proclaims that Rental values and Real Estate markets have stabilised in most parts of the country and with the onset of the festive season that lasts over the next half of the year, things could indeed begin to brighten up for the sector.

SSPDL is a property development company primarily developing commercial (IT parks, Shopping Malls, Hotel projects, service apartments etc) and residential properties (gated communities, villas, apartments and serviced plots) in Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Kerala.

The company has a strong foot hold in the Chennai market and is gaining momentum in Bangalore and Hyderabad. The OMR (Chennai’s High Tech Corridor) is the main stay for the Company with over 3 million sq. ft (constructed and in planning) in the form of IT Parks, Shopping Malls, Hotel and Apartments.

Projects under Execution with expected dates of completion
:

-
Matrix Towers, Chennai April 2008
-
SSPDL Avion, Hyderabad May 2008 -Bangalore Retreat December 2009
-
OMR Mixed Development Project, Chennai September 2010 -OMR Residential Project, Chennai December 2009
-
Hyderabad Retreat, Hyderabad December 2012 -The Retreat, Kallar Valley, Kerala Dec 2010

The value of projects under execution exceeds Rs 2000 crore with
over 7 Million Sq. ft of Built Up Space aggregating to a Sale Value of Rs.1800 Crores Plus in various stages of execution.

SSPDL has also announced plans to take up the following projects:
-
Gundla Pochampally/Kompally, Hyderabad a 40+ acre residential gated community -Bangalore-Mysore Highway Project a 60+ acre residential community
-
Montieth Road Property Chennai Office space.

The Retreat, Hyderabad has an SEZ as an integral part of the project. SSPDL has appointed Surbana, the Singapore based architects for this project and currently planning is underway. The earliest revenues will be recognized from 3rd quarter of 2008.

At Kallar Valley in Kerala SSPDL has acquired about 325 Acres of pristine Plantation Land with natural forest and waterfalls, springs etc. The site is located in the Hills and is a 2 hour drive from Kochi Airport.

SSPDL intends to put up a 20 acre world class resort with a Hospitality Partner. Besides that, it will promote Vacation Homes of super luxury quality by invitation only.

In addition, the Company has been awarded construction contracts aggregating to Rs 78.20 Crores for the following works from third parties.

(i) Construction contract with NBCC, Hyderabad for construction of 1.5 lakh sq feet office building.
(ii) Construction contract of warehouse for SAIL Ltd at Vizag.
(iii) Construction contract for TCG IT Park, Chennai.
(iv) Construction contract for 50 villas for Ferns-Regalia Realty Ltd, Chennai.

2. SSPDL Infrastructure Developers Pvt Ltd, a SPV held jointly by the Company together with Innovative Realty Opportunity Fund Ltd have entered into a sate agreement with Accor Group of Hotels for hotel space in "The Promenade" Project, at Egattur, OMR, Chennai.

3. SSPDL Ltd and Indiareit Fund Advisors Pvt Ltd through their SPVs have acquired 42 acres in Gundtapochampalty village, Hyderabad to develop a gated residential villa community "SSPDL Northwoods". Total estimated project value is Rs 250 crores.

Important stock tips for day traders of India:12 Aug

1. Indian stock News: One need to be now cautious as market is at key resistance level and support exists for Sensex at 14749-14450 levels and Sensex has to breach the level of 15575-15700-15800. Nifty has to now move above 4675 level for this rally to continue.

2.
Profit from yesterday stock tips from India premier stock market site:ONGC gave a profit of RS 5000, IDFC gave a profit of Rs 550, HDIL gave a profit of Rs 1140 and Asian Electronics gave a profit of Rs 120 ( One can reenter in this stock above 107 level).

3.
Bullish stocks determination by Strong Future Stocks data

Can Bk
Idbi Ltd
Kotak Bank
Triveni Engg
Indian bank
Jaiprakash
Union Bank
Bank Of Baroda
Punj Lloyd
REL INF

4.
Analyse Stocks trend with Weak Future Stocks data

Amtek
Sterling Biotech
Bharat Elect
ABAN OFFSHORE
Ndtv
Gtl Ltd
Indian Hotels
Financial Techno
Sun TV LIMITED
Nucleus

5.
Result oriented tips for BSE and NSE

Buy Indian Cements>166.1,167.7.170 sl 163.8

Buy ONGC>1110.1,1114,1121,1137 sl 1104.9

Buy Indo Asian Fuse>85.75,87.75 sl 84.8

Buy IDFC>106.25,107.7,110 sl 104.4

NIFTY ANALYSIS :
NSE India

Because of strong global closing, Nifty opened on a strong note and remained in the upper zone throughout the day and finally closed 91 points up from its previous day’s close. On daily basis Nifty has closed above 4600 but we have to wait for a weekly close. This week will be a truncated week. So we may witness more volatility in the later part of the week. There is nothing more to say, it seems that for the time being downside is limited. So use correction to initiate long positions. Sector wise, most of the sectors are looking good. For Tuesday, support exists at 4580 and then at 4515 and on upside, resistance exists at 4670 and then at 4720.

BULLISH
BSE SENSEX :
BSE Above 15539 it go for 15616 to 15712 level. At downside support at around 15463 and then at 15406.
BULLISH
NIFTY FUTURE :
Nifty Now it zoom to kiss 4653 and if sustain above it then it go for 4687 to 4749 level. At downside support at around 4590 and then at 4557.
BUY
RELIANCE :
Reliance Now if trade and sustain above 2357 then it go for 2389 to 2442 level. At downside support at around 2304 and then at 2272.
BUY
SBI :
SBI For a day trading view, it zoom to kiss 1623 and if cross this too then go for 1650 to 1695. At downside support at 1578 and then at 1551.
BUY
TATA STEEL :
TATA STEEL As expected it face hurdle around 665, now it has a support at around 635 and then 627. At upside above 658 it go for 673 and if sustain above it then go for 681.
HOLD
L&T :
LT Zoom to kiss 2910 and if stay above it then go for 2928 to 2957 level. At downside support at 2880 and then 2863.
BUY
INFOSYS :
Infosys Now it has a support around 1645 and if break this then it slide up to 1620 to 1584. At upside it face resistance at 1682 and then at 1705.
HOLD
ONGC :
ONGC It zoom to kiss 1121 and if cross this too then it go for 1137 to 1160. At downside support at 1098 and then 1082 break below slide up to 1060 to 1040.
BUY
REL CAP :
REL CAP For a day trading view, it has a good support at around 1422 and then 1402. at upside if cross 1448 and stay above it then it go for 1468 to 1494 level.
BUY
REL :
REL INFRA Now it zoom to kiss 1127 and if cross this too then go for 1153 to 1194 level. At downside support at around 1086 and then at 1060.
BUY
BHEL :
BHEL It zoom to kiss 1849 and if cross this too then it go for 1868 to 1893 level. At downside it has support around 1805 and then 1780.
BUY
DLF :
DLF Now if break 556 then slide up to 544 to 532 level. At upside it face resistance at 579 and if cross this then only it go for 591 to 603.
HOLD


Date 12/08/2008 Tuesday

DATE INDICATOR GREEN- BULLISH RED - BEARISH YELLOW- WAIT & WATCH

Today's Most Important---------as below

Most near support level Nifty--4396, Sensex--14565. Most near resistance level Nifty--4771, Sensex--15834.

Alert :-- Please do not hold any long position and go home, any time bears will attack. So please be alert now.

Market was bullish one day more, which we already hoped. This time 14 DMA & 5 DMA of Nifty Spot & Sensex are bullish. 5 DMA of Nifty Future is doing flat trade, so there is no hope for very Bull Run. This type of Bull Run means that it’s a game, which is playing with the investors & due to this investors will come to see in the bullish zone. All the investors will go to trap on higher level because once again market will go to do the bearish. Selling pressure can be made on near the Nifty Spot level of 4680.

Today if Nifty Future trade above the level of 4629 then it can go up to the level of 4670, 4691 to 4713 but as Nifty Future break the level of 4629 & after that 4601 then it can go below the level of 4552, 4482 to 4453.

According to main support level when Nifty Spot trade above the level of 4396, Sensex----14565 then Nifty Spot can go at the level of 4771 & Sensex 15834 but if Nifty Spot go to break the level of 4396 & Sensex------14565 then once again lower level can be tested. So selling pressure can be started near the level of Nifty 4771 & Sensex15834 before that there is a strong resistance of Nifty--- 4680, selling pressure can come there also.

Above levels are very strong levels, so please do not ignore when you do trade.

Happy & Safe Trading

Daily Target:-

1) Buy ASIANPAINT Above @ 1255 Target 1267-1276 to 1300.

2) Buy BAJAJAUTO Above @ 571 Target 582-593 to 620.

3) Buy BOB Above @ 298 Target 302-306 to 317.

4) Buy BANKINDIA Above @ 304 Target 309-315 to 327.

5) Buy BHEL Above @ 1834 Target 1857-1857 to 1927.

6) Buy CHENNPETRO Above @ 307 Target 310-312 to 319.

7) Buy GAIL Above @ 421 Target 427-434 to 449.

8) Buy ICICIBANK Above @ 775 Target 791-808 to 850.

9) Buy ITC Above @ 194 Target 196-198 to 203.

10) Buy RCOM Above @ 455 Target 463-470 to 487.

11) Sell TCS Below @ 832 Target 797-761 to 743.

12) Sell TATACHEM Below @ 347 Target 329-311 to 301.

13) Sell SUZLON Below @ 249 Target 242-235 to 231.

14) Sell SATYAM Below @ 409 Target 399-387 to 381.

15) Sell RELCAPITAL Below @ 1439 Target 1390-1338 to 1312.














No comments:

PAID SERVICE IS OPEN NOW

WE HAVE LAUNCH OUR PAID SERVICES:-

LIMITED OFFERS:
LIMITED SEATS:
LIVE MESSANGER TECHNICAL GUIDE DURING MKT HOURS:
TO JOIN OUR SERVICES: ADD YAHOO ID: ASHRAFVAHORA@YAHOO.COM

INTERESTED CANIDATE CAN DROP THEIR EMAIL TO AAYESHATECH@HOTMAIL.COM































































DISCLAIMER

Aayeshatech sites and it's sub sites is a forum for expressing views. Members recommending stocks may have positions, thus having vested interest in the same. Members are requested to do their own research and/or consult a certified financial planner before making decisions with respect to buying and selling of stocks or derivatives.

Aayeshatech sites and it's owner and moderators do not take any responsibility for views expressed in this forum and any consequences including financial, legal or otherwise resulting from actions based on such views.

The views here are for educational purposes only.
Powered By Blogger