MKT NEWS

BUY DIVIS LAB (BSECODE 532488) AT 1560 FOR TARGET 1630-1700, STOP LOSS 1400.
Buy Bse(532775) GTLINFRA Cmp 41.70 Tgt 53 Stoploss 37 (in 2 days

Stock : Satyam Computers
CMP : Rs 413
Target : Rs 440 and 468
Time Frame : 1-2 months
Stop Loss : Rs394

Trading Strategy:

This stock showing bullish signals and with good average delivery volumes above( 20 day delivery volumes are well above 40%.). And trying to sustain above 20 day EMA for the past 6 trading sessions. To trade this stock just grab it dips with a minimum stop loss well below 20 day EMA whic comes around Rs404. And Rs394 would be a good Stop loss. Satyam having strong supports near 409. And can bounce upto 61.8% which is the fibonacci retracement level and current resistance level for satyam computers. Once the resistance breaks then we can go for higher targets. Satyam looks like a good and safe trading bet in current market scenario.

Buy Gammon - Target 263 - Within One Month
Buy Hindustan constructions - Target 128 - Within One Month

Has the wheel started moving? Last week I had presented the scenario of How Will The Bear Market Saga Unfold? Inspite of all the pseudo positive atmosphere being created by various components of Indian Stock Market and its valued participants, Nifty failed to reach those heights ( read 5000 and above). After a week if we take stock , things are not as rosy as it is being projected by vested parties. I think there is something fishy in the way markets are being made to behave. The day IIP data was going to be published a valued B-Channel flashed IIP data before it was officially published and that too incomplete/wrong. What can be the motive behind this? Markets however reacted to the data being flashed. It high time the regulators take note of the parties who are trying to manipulate markets.

On the other hand Interactive iPath MSCI India Index ETN (INP) has fallen almost 5.5% till 13.08.08 while Nifty fell by 2.2% only last week. Another omnious sign for the coming week. Not to forget that we have a truncated week and by the time we open on Monday ( 18.08.08) much water would have flown under the bridge. Scenario in US and Europe are not rosy too.

Charts as on today also don't look like there is much cheer for BULLS next week.

In the daily charts Nifty is still in the channel. RSI, MACD and Slow Stoch are all indicating falls next week. In the weekly charts RSI has turned down after facing resistance at 50 levels ( indicated by blue line). Slow stoch ( weekly) is indicative of the BEAR week coming next.

So in true Olympic spirit the much awaited long jump of Nifty from 3790 to supposedly 5000 and above has failed. The path to the failure was indicated in my last post How Will The Bear Market Saga Unfold?

" 4577.53 4558.30 4539.07 4500.60 4462.13 4442.90 4423.67 4385.20 4346.73 4327.50 4308.27 4269.80 4231.33 4212.10 4192.87 4154.40 4115.93 4096.70 4077.47 4039.00 4000.53 3981.30 3962.07 3923.60 3885.13 3865.90 3846.67 3808.20 3769.73 3750.50 3731.27 3692.80 3654.33 3635.10 3615.87 3577.40 3538.93 3519.70 3500.47 3462.00 3423.53 3404.30 3385.07 3346.60 3308.13 3288.90 3269.67 3231.20 " Figures in red have all been achieved this week . Just check how the lows of the week match with the levels.

Important Levels for this week are:

Upside - 4457.84, 4476.26, 4494.68, 4531.53, 4568.37, 4586.79, 4605.21, 4642.05

Downside : 4611.25, 4591.88, 4572.5, 4533.75, 4495, 4475.63, 4456.25, 4417.5, 4378.75, 4359.38, 4340, 4301.25, 4262.5, 4243.13, 4223.75, 4185, 4146.25, 4126.88, 4107.5, 4068.75, 4030, 4010.63, 3991.25, 3952.5

STC cultivates jatropha overseas
10 july 2008
Our Bureau BANGALORE
THE State Trading Corporation (STC) has started trial cultivation of a bio-engineered, high-yielding variety of jatropha in Surinam in South America and is in talks to grow the crop in Indonesia as part of a move to raise output of the biodiesel feedstock. The export house is also considering tieups with aircraft makers to supply biodiesel derived from jatropha to be blended with jet fuel, CMD Arvind Pandalai said. Trial cultivation has started on about 100 hectares in Surinam and the plantation is expected to eventually cover some 50,000 hectares. STC has spent more than Rs 10 crore to develop new varieties which are rich in oil and grow faster than the conventional types. “We have been able to develop varieties which can be harvested in about eight months against the conventional four years. The bioengineering effort has also ensured that these new varieties have four oil-bearing pods instead of the normal three,” Mr Pandalai said. Besides the focus on biofuels from jatropha, STC is promoting export of many Indian commodities, including tea. The company is looking to increase the network of tea factories and expand its footprint in south India by sourcing from small tea-growers in Kotagiri in Tamil Nadu. STC has been buying about 60,000 kg of green tea every day from small growers to be processed at factories identified by the company nearby. The Tofah brand of CTC tea is being exported and has earned revenues of Rs 500 crore so far, he said. Some of the tea is also sold in the domestic market through the Gujarat Civil Supplies Corporation.


My Comments:
STC is a government owned biz .I usually do not follow PSU's as it is government decision sensitive.But seems here the management is working in right direction without any interference from the Babus....
Being a trading co they must also be having vast lands at prime location for warhousing and the above move to grow Jathropa is a master stroke by the Management.Cultivating Jathropa's in USA and Surinam needs a vision and that is what they are showing...... “We have been able to develop varieties which can be harvested in about eight months against the conventional four years....."These needs R&D ....which they have done.....
What other will need 4 years to grow Jathropa Plants, STC will be able to do in 8 months...that is a huge huge advantage.....then its peers...
The management seems very dynamic.....the future growth & Scalability is visible.......

IVRCL INFRA PRICE: RS. 342 --- TARGET PRICE: RS. 474 :Kotak Securities

IVRCL INFRASTRUCTURES LTD
PRICE: RS. 342 Kotak Securities Recommends: BUY
TARGET PRICE: RS. 474 FY10E P/E: 13. 4X

52 Week High:575. 00 Lows: 250. 00

The recovery from the July low major support level is itself now staging healthy corrections at predictable levels but more of that later. The major thing to note since the recovery set in is that the SENSEX has decoupled from the Asian markets and is moving under its own steam.
While the performance on overseas markets will continue to influence the markets here the major decoupling which has taken place is dramatically demonstrated by the chart here on the left. For daily technical comments on the SENSEX see my webpage www.reutersindia.net
On the upper part of the chart the SENSEX is charted against the benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific Stocks Index excluding Japan. The decoupling since the turn of the month is striking and amply backed up by the correlation sub-chart.
Above the zero line shows a positive correlation, the higher above the zero line the higher the correlation, and below shows a negative correlation. Anything above +0.7 or -0.7 for the correlation index is considered significant and as you can see on this chart the 10-day correlation is currently around -0.45.
It has been many months since the correlation with the rest of the Asian markets has been negative. The second quarter of 2007 was the last time, in fact.
Why? Well looking at it purely from the chart the only incident that seems to coincide with the decoupling was the government victory of the vote of confidence and the associated politics. Scandals notwithstanding, it would seem investors here view the outcome positively and are bullish for economic reforms.
It would seem overseas investors are not so sure as the rupee has not been firming and has been stuck in a 41.70-42.80 per US dollar range since the vote. The FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) data backs this up with a net inflow since the July 22 vote of just $225 million by my calculation of the daily figures. If foreign money is going back into the market it has been money left on deposit here after earlier stock sales, not fresh money.
It follows therefore that before we can even start thinking about getting back close to the old highs, overseas money that left the country during the sell-off, or fresh money, must come back in.
The near-term SENSEX chart is getting a little stretched with our bullish indicators which have been in place since the 12,500 low starting to fade. We are currently looking at a bounce of the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the May-July down-move and that could skew some of our short-term technical indicators like the Parabolic-SAR.
As the next chart shows the Parabolic-SAR now looks like it might turn bearish although other indicators like the MACD and Alpha Beta trend are still bullish. (For an explanation of these studies see my earlier blog From looking at the Long Term Trend to looking at the Long Term Support)
The Alpha-Beta study is indicating an uptrend with the signal line, the green one, crossing down through the lower line, the blue one. But we need to watch these indicators very carefully during any hesitation in the uptrend.
The longer term chart is still worth learning some lessons from. There was major technical support at the long-term trendline in Q1-Q2 and when that broke around the 38.2 pct Fibonacci retracement level in Q2. You can see both these supports. Since the 38.2 pct support broke the next big level was 12,500 which was the high reached before the 2006 sell-off and the 2007 low.
There is very good long-term technical support for this market between 11,900 and 12,500 as marked but with the oil price continuing to do the right thing, revisiting those levels would at the moment seem a fairly remote possibility.