Tuesday, June 30, 2009

NEWS

Sensex Technical View :

The index has done the minimum bounce to the zone of 14900-15100 which is 61% of the current fall from 15600 to 14k.

Now the next thing to watch is whether 15.6k is taken of and we go to 16k-16.2k or not !!!

On the down side 14500 is a good support for the short term. So next 2-3 weeks would be yet again a decider to find the next move ! Continue to be stock specific as action may soon shift to the broader market then on the index


Stocks to watchout for :

Sugars did a small day move today and may continue in days to come with lots of volatility .. Cadilla time to get out and get into another defensive like Marico or Nestle. Strides 145 now stop.

Bank Of Baroda

410 to 456 has been the rough range for the stock and seems this banking stock may move up in short term to 500 also if crosses 458. Buy above 458 stop of 446 tgt 480/510. or buy on dips stop of 428.

Welspun Guj till above 200-205 could give a move to 230 . Garware Wall rope another investment stock has been seeing large volumes of late. Long term investors can look to take small qty and wait for dips.

Rishab Dev Cables - newlisting will it see the fate like many other newlisting did move up by 30-50% ?? by speculative interest ... The market buzz says so ... Rest take ur call the stock can go anywhere

Weird observations :

Stock called Ushdev international - trades exactly 50k shares every day :P with 1 % delivery ... Is the company listed for different reasons :P



Alok Industries shares pledged ? What impact no idea but this is a bulk deal which tells you which company pledged shares ....



Kalindee rail a budget bet .... FII sold some time back 10 % lower but who bought ???

KZ leasing

Oct 08 price 15
March 09 price 75
June 09 price 10

What does the stock do no idea ... but moved up from 10 to 75 and back to 10 :P .... there is an opposite bull market in some stock always ...

Zigma Software was 2 rs in April is now 22 rs :P ... turnaround or fool around

Well will keep this session coming when there is nothing much to observe or pass time with :P



Nifty :: An Spinning top candle pattern in Nifty chart, before our strong resistance and target 4480 (Sensex 15000/ 15125).. Bulls ménage to hold mid term trend line.. As far as before budget close above 4311 momentum seems side way up.. Be careful at higher level, avoid buying at high give long commitment only when Nifty close above 4480 (Sensex 15125).. Our strategy for 30th Jun buy on deep (S.L 4311) Sell at high (S.L 4496 ).. Resistance for up move at 4440/4458/4480/4496.. Supports at 4352/4338/4311/4243/ 4156…

The Indian market opened on flat note and saw upward journey in afternoon session and close in flat zone .Nifty seen profit booking at higher level and saw all the gain vanished at the end of session . For coming session trading below 4368 zones it will test 4342-4300 zone .On the other side 4480-4513 zone will act as strong resistances zone .

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Last day of the month and it is one thing to be confused and it is another to be sitting on confusion. Let me clarify what I mean. I mean that we have 3 EMA and 15 EMA exactly the same – 4354. Now this can mean two things – if the EMA crosses over then we go long and if it does not then we are supposed to add to the shorts already held with us. So seeing the things as they are – we will just wait for the other indications to give us direction or we will just wait for some more clarity to emerge. Yesterday the market’s high was where it was exactly projected to be – the middle of Bollinger bands. That figure was 4446 and the market high yesterday was 4440 – just six points short of it before it gave away most of its gains and ended at 4390. could this be the top of the second shoulder that I discussed yesterday? well it may be though I am sceptical. I do feel that a little bit more is what is there in store for us before we form the shoulder and decide on the direction. Daily 29 Jun 09All this is well – but everyone is eagerly waiting for the budget and the pull and pressure can be gauged by the fact that the premium on the Calls and puts have increased quite a bit. Normally what happens that the markets sees the direction of the trend and the premium towards the trend is more and less the other way – here we have the premium increased both ways – so you can actually feel the pulse of confusion.

As far as the global cues are concerned there is fair amount of good news flowing in – I am talking in terms of the market performance – except Asia – everyone was green. FTSE was up 1.25%, DAX up 2.27% and CAC up 2.04%. US opened flat – dipped down red and then went up to remain green and close at those levels only. DOW was up 1.08%, Nasdaq was up 0.32% and S&P was up 0.91%. Mind you all this was in a lack of market cues for US and Oil shot up by 3.4% to 71.49%. Ofcourse if it all green then we have to have a matching Asia opening and Nikkei has opened green – and is now at 1.98% up and Strait Times too is 1.56% in green.

Coming to the charts – like I said we have a situation where the 3 EMA and 15 EMA are same so I will wait for a crossover and chances are of a positive crossover. The volumes were a bit better than yesterday with 82% of the last 50 day average. ADX has turned bullish but the strength is less – very near to 20 – the signs of confusion here too. MACD remains defiantly bearish. RSI is bullish. And so is Slow Stochastic. TRIX – one of my favourite forward looking indicator is looking down unfortunately as of now.

The Pivot data goes on like this ---

R3 4528 against 4523
R2 4482
R1 4436
Pivot 4393 against 4333
S1 4347
S2 4304
S3 4258
Projected High Range 4414 to 4459
Projected Low Range 4419 to 4374
Fib Projected High 4463
Fib Projected Low 4325

Option Pain 29 Jun 09 As far as the options are concerned the Put Call ratio has almost come to 1 –see it for yourself.Put Call ratio 29 Jun 09

To prepare for the elections a large majority is with straddles and strangle in options. I feel otherwise – in toto for a straddle in nifty we are paying almost 400 points – we may not have such a swing and may not get the kind of gains we expect from the markets – so I am where I was – on the sidelines for more clarity. Best of luck to all of you for today’s trading.
















Yesterday market open huge down and recovery sometime. The nifty will go uptrend for moreover 50 - 60 points. And Closing section market will again come downside for closing nifty only 15 points postive. Today nifty open we expected gapup for 20 - 30 points , The nifty spot 4420 when cross and trade this levels again market will postive go to uptrend for 4440,4460,4480 to 4520 levels. The again 4520 level cross the nifty will continued further uptrend continued upto 4620 to 4920 level for positional. Andalso market heavy volatile it.Suposse the nifty will break 4350 level the nifty come downside for 4320 to 4120 levels.
Nifty Spot

R-4394/4437/4483.
S-4348/4305/4259.

Nifty Fut

R-4394/4442/4495.
S-4341/4293/4240.

Sensex

R-14809/14933/15080.
S-14662/14538/14391.

Yesterday our buy call 5 target achived and sell call first target only achived. Today Nifty Buy abv 4395 SL 4350 tgt 4410,4425,4444,4460,4480 to 4520 levels. Nifty Sell below 4350 SL 4395 tgt 4340,4330,4320,4300 to 4280 levels.

An attempt @ possible intra moves. A "b" wave may be developing...if it is an irregular one, it may go past yesterday's high and then correct into the "c' wave of the 4th. Depending on the inherent strength, the "c" may play out...sideways in strength or downwards in weakness. On completing the 4th, it should start its 5th up.

Alternatively as per Hourly counts, if it has more strength, it will be doing "(iii)rd" of the "iii", moving up steadily. have your pick.


NU-TEK INDIA LTD. CODE: 533015

CMP : 50.25

FACE VALUR : 10

BOOK VALUE : 92.17

52-Week High 225

52-Week Low 23.85

Eps : 9.42

PE : 5.29

The company is engaged in telecom solution business it undertakes and executes turnkey projects, like implementation of solutions, operation maintenance and resources. It carries out all civil and electrical work. company gets its business mainly from service providers and equipment manufacturers like NOKIA, MOTORALA etc. companys topline shooted tremendously in past 3 to 4 years span, its bottomline also increasing significantly. Further, there is going to be a great demand in coming years in towering business as its expected that number of towers in country will be just doubled by 2010

stock is trading right now at multiplier of 5.29 approx which makes a
good investment bet with a target price of 100 plus in for medium .





Half hourly Chart




Daily Chart


Daily Charts
  • Doji candle formation depicting indecision.
  • 5 dema continues to be bearishly aligned to 10 & 20 dema.
  • Oscillators in neutral zone.
  • Uptrendline intact.
Intra Day Charts
  • Oscillators were oversold and the nifty seems to be correcting this state.
  • Solid support at 4333-4343-4347 area from the 50-100-200 period ema's. However the three ema's are bearishly aligned.
  • The shorter term moving averages are once again bullishly aligned.
  • Uptrendline intact.
My View

A Doji has been formed on daily charts .The doji has closed towards the lower range and the upper shadow is longer than the lower shadow. This shows selling pressure. Volumes were more than that on Friday. Advance Decline figures improved over Friday's figure.

The uptrend started on Friday has not shown strength enough for us to consider an upgrade in our view from being moderately bullish.


NIFTY VIEW :- SUP 3990-4022-4089-4145-4201-4242 RESI 4307-4343-4401-4444-4525-4601 RIL IND VIEW :- SUP 1771-1844-1901-1957- 1999 - 2121 RESI 2222 - 2346 - 2401-2444-2500 ....... !!!! TATACOMM RADY FOR BIG MOVE MOVE MOVE ONE WAY MOVE 400 TO 500 RS JUMP HEADING TOWORDS 1000 ........ !!! DONT MISS NAVNEET PUBLICATION , IDBI , TATACOOM , U WILL SEE FIRE WORKS IN THIS STOCKS BOTH BROTHER MEANS AMBANI ... BOTH ARE ONE THEY NEVER DIFFERENT U WILL SEE BOTH WILL COME TOGETHER ON MEDIA VERY SOON , AND U ALL WILL SEE ADAG AND RGROUP WILL BLAST IN SHARE MKT , WHY THEY SHOWN DIFFERNT FROM LAST 3 YEARS ALL IS GAME PLANE....??? cipla RADY FOR 300 ANY TIME ...!!!!! IDBI BIG MOVE ON CARD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY IN DEL DONT MISS VERY SOON 127++++++ AND DEL TGT MIN MUM 155++++ ...... MKT GOING FOR CONSOLIDITION MAJOR SUP 13890 - 13630 - 12888 BUT BULLS ARE ACTIVE STILL DONOT THINK ANY DIFFRENT ......!!! RCAP RADY TO MOVE 1100/1220/1331 .......... IFCI RADY TO CROSS 62/65 ....!!!!!! RCAP IS HOT HOT HOT DONT MISS

On Friday 26/6/2009 BSE Sensex closed up at 14764 . The next week on 6th July 2009 financial budget will be presented by New UPA government. Since 1991 liberalisation, of 18 union budgets presented most of the times stock market has tanked. Only 4 times stock markets have gained after Union budget.

BSE Sensex Daily Chart Till 29/6/2009

As seen above in the Daily Chart of BSE Sensex, it has broken down from ascending channel. BSE Sensex may re-attempt on up-side to gain old high of 15700 and in process try to break within the the ascending channel or touch the bottom of the ascending channel. On the other hand on the down side BSE Sensex may take support just above the gap-up created after election results. As long as BSE sensex is above 14500, bulls can be comfortable. For BSE Sensex, the zone of 15400-15600 is a stiff resistance zone . And on the down side 13500-13700 is a very strong support level.

Structure Of Sensex
Since low of 7700 in daily chart the structure was sideways. Since a big Gap-up opening after the election results. BSE Sensex has indicated a bullish structure of Higher top & Higher bottom. This bullish structure can allow the bulls to make merry as long as this bullish structure is intact. The Union financial Budget in the Parliament may again give way to new move or direction to the market. And 15500-15700 is a very important daily pivotal point and an old support and resistance zone.

Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
The Daily chart the KST momentum indicator has given bearish cross-over and started going down, which indicates a loss of upward momentum. The KST Indicator in itself turning upward /downward is also considered as significant as cross-over. But as long as KST Oscillator is in overbought zone, bulls had upper hand.

Note: "The KST was in overbought zone in the trending market of 2005-2007. But in the daily BSE Sensex chart shows that since fall in January 2008, the KST indicator broke the zero line from the upside and migrated to south - oversold zone. Since January 2008 KST Indicator has been in oversold zone. At every rally in the BSE Sensex KST indicator briefly touches the zero line or equilibrium line, but again fall back to form new trough in the oversold zone. This phenomen is indicated in the Daily Sensex Chart with down arrows, in earlier BSE Sensex Posts."

Volume
Volume has been an important indicator to gauge this strong rally which started from March 2009. Volumes are gaining on the up move thus strongly indicating good buying in the equity market. Volume is one of the informant cog or puzzle chip in over all technical picture.
The volumes from November 2008 to January 2009 looked like accumulation . This volume accumulation gave rise to a rally, as seen from late March 2009. The April 2009 the rally has been on a rising volume which was good indicator that this rally is a powerful one. May 2009 also recorded higher volume than April 2009. June 2009 volume so far has been is a rising one.

Trendline
BSE Sensex has broken out of the ascending channel. This week BSE Sensex on uptrend may attempt to re-enter the ascending channel. So the ascending channel will be a stiff resistance zone for BSE Sensex on the upside. The 15500 is also very old resistance zone.

For those who joined late-"Since high of 21206, in January 2008, a clear descending channel is seen in the above daily chart of the Sensex. BSE Sensex attempted breaking out on upside on 4 occasion's, dated -16/05/2008, 12/08/2008, 05/09/2008, 12/02/2009. But on 16/03/2009 BSE Sensex did successfully crossover the descending channel on the upside."
For more reference one may visit old BSE Sensex posts.

Sensex Key Support Level-- ---- 14400, 14588, 14678
Sensex Key Resistance Level---- 14929, 15125, 15259


BSE Sensex Weekly Chart Till 29/06/2009

If weekly uptrend line 4 has been broken conclusively by BSE Sensex. Then BSE Sensex on a pull back attempt may try to regain old highs. The current weekly candle is bullish hanging man. This current Weekly candle has to an extent negated the evening star candle pattern,s bearish implications. BSE Sensex is very close to weekly resistance zone of 15300-15500.
This is a prior week of Union Financial budget to be presented on 6th July 2009. So on the hope of positive union budget, BSE Sensex may make an attempt to regain the old highs of 15500-15700 this week.

Momentum Indicator /Oscillator For Weekly Chart.
The weekly KST Indicator is rising and in overbought zone thus pointing at the intermediate trend of BSE Sensex which is positive or bullish. No loss of upward momentum so far seen in the Weekly KST Indicator.


BSE Sensex Monthly Chart Till 29/06/2009

March 2009 was a bullish candle, thus forming Bullish Engulfing Pattern on monthly BSE Sensex Chart. The candle of April 2009 is bullish belt hold line candle pattern. May 2009 candle is also big bullish candle. June 2009 candle is forming & real call can be taken when June 2009 month ends.
As has been indicated may times in all old BSE Sensex posts, that bull market or bull trend in BSE Sensex cannot said to be over for long term till monthly uptrend line 2 drawn from low of the year 1981 gets broken. And so far this monthly uptrend line does not appear to have broken. So long term BSE Sensex is still bullish.







Monday, June 29, 2009

NEWS

Sensex Technical View :

Momentum line holds yet again !!

Sensex has taken a smart move from 14k levels and now is back to 14700 +. The move has been on expected lines and as has been discussed extensively in the webinar we need to watch whether 15600 is taken over or not in next few weeks.

In previous testing of the momentum line the Sensex has bounced back sharply above the recent highs.

So resistances to look for are 14900-15100 and then 15600. A move above 15600 would keep the pattern intact and target 16200 or more.

As was mentioned in last few sessions to deploy some cash at 14k-14.3k in stock specific with a stop of 13800. The view remains same to keep on trailing and watch for recent highs are broken to go for more gains or the trendline breaks to dump the stocks.


Stocks to watchout for :

Sugar stocks have continued to remain strong in the last few months and have been consolidating for past few weeks. Strong hearted traders can either buy with a stop given on dips or buy in momentum for quick trades. Risk is lil high as all are very volatile.

Balrampur stop 98 momentum above 112.5.
Triveni Engg 95 momentum above 106.
Renuka stop 132 momentum above 153.
Bajaj Hind stop 190 momentum above 223.

Nestle is yet another defensive stock which can move up in the short run after cadilla.Buy small qty on dips to give stability to the portfolio.

Strides Arcolab

Increasing volumes seen and making a nice accumulation pattern. Can take small exposure with a stop of 138 . Momentum could be seen abov 153-155 zone in short term targetting 165-180.


Sunday Thoughts :

Quick actions/decisions/discipline or inactivity with discipline which makes wealth and not superior thinking in markets.

The above line is one of the apt ones to describe a standard scenario in markets generally or even in last one year or so. I would put them into 3 sets of investor/trader groups.

An active investor with discipline and technical bias would have sold investments at 16-15k k in May and re-entered investments at 10k in April again ! . In between traded all through the bear rallies and dumps. Would now look to exit at 15-16k again and then keep trading al through.

All the above moves may not have been exactly timed but would have given a very good edge with optimized returns with lower risk. The portfolio would be largely positive even if he started at 20k !!

At the same time some long term investor stuck at 20k would have got on to a 3 times from bottom still way back from the good old days. So inactivity would have got him back to a better place then Oct/March. These section may have accumulated wealth through last few years/decades so more insulated !!

The worst placed is the over-pondering over-confused and a delayed action making investor who sold aat 12k and then at 9k waiting to take all back at 6k and is was watching till 14k with a portfolio of DEPLETED cash !! ..............When would he come back in at 16k/18k well thats when the top two groups would be thinking cautiously....


Free Weekly Stock Market Prediction and Forecast for Last week of June 2009 and First week of July 2009 : 29th June 2009 to 3rd July 2009

Planetary position during Last week of June 2009 and First week of July 2009
Sun will transit from Gemini.
Mercury will transit from Taurus, will transit from Gemini from 1st July 2009.
Venus will transit from Aries, will transit from Taurus from 1st July 2009.
Moon will transit from Virgo, Libra and Scorpio.
Mars will transit from Aries.
Rahu will transit from Capricorn.
Retrograde Jupiter will transit from Aquarius.
Saturn will transit in Leo.
Ketu will transit in Cancer.


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Stock Market Prediction for 29th June 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Virgo Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in separating aspect with Transiting Rahu, indicates Indian Stock Market may start their business in green signal. Buying in heavy weight script and from FII will support market. Market may steady or go up side up to 13.05.






Stock Market Prediction for 30th June
2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Virgo Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Mercury, indicates Market may open nearer to previous closing. Market may steady or up side up to 12.50. Some profit booking at higher level will be seen, so be careful.







Stock Market Prediction for 1st July
2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Libra Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be receiving hard aspect from Transiting Rahu, indicates Volatility will be seen in Indian Stock Market during first treading session, but it may go up as the time progress. it will be reasonalbly good treading day.






Stock Market Prediction for 2nd July
2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Libra Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Mars, indicates Market movement would not be clear. Extreme Volatility will be there, However, there may be some recovery in OIL & GAS sector. Gold Price will also increase.






Stock Market Prediction for 3rd July
2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Scorpio Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Mars, indicates Market will also Volatile on 3rd July 2009. Do business will due precaution up to 11.55. Intraday treader will see Market in Green signal or Market may go up between 12.00 and 13.15. Some profit booking will be seen after 13.30, so be careful.





During Last week Sensex has gained 1.7%, Nifty has gained 1.4%. Capital Goods index was the top gainers from BSE. Auto and Metal indices lost the most. Rupee appreciated 1% against the dollar to close at 48.11. European markets were trading around 0.5% higher. US stock indices futures were marginally in the red.

MONSOON

If Good Monsoon will come soon, it will help market. India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, New Delhi, INDE says Monsoon will come during July 2009.

Technical Analysis

Resistance Level for Nifty will be 4375, 4393, 4478, 4515, 4517 and 4584. Support Level for Nifty will be 4367, 4314, 4270 and 4144.

Resistance Level for Sensex will be 14792, 15153, 15195, 15261 and 15579. Support Level for Sensex will be 14615, 14374, 14592, 14489 and 14082.

BUY ICICIBANK ABOVE 757 TGT 785>803 STOPLOSS 729
SELL M&M BELOW 683 TGT 653>638 STOPLOSS 705

Last week we had mention any major rally correct before next move still we had seen just 23%-4151 level and 38%around 3850 and 50%is 3592 zones as shown in above chart .



Last week sensex gain 1.7% and nifty ending higher by 1.4% respectively. As last week we had mention about some pullback can seen nifty bounces from lower levels and touch 4370 levels moving head 4442-4483-4553 zone will act as resistances zone .On the lower side if nifty crack below 4140 zone we can see deep correction towards 4000-3865 zones .For coming weeks closing below 4310 levels we can test 4220-4150 zones .




The Indian market opened on higher note tracking positive cues from global market and close with hand some gains.For coming session nifty trading above 4380 it likely to test 4440-4483 zones .On the other side 4290-4240 levels will act support zones.








LIC Housing Finance is in a fierce rally on this weekly chart. You can never ever tell where this thing is going to stop. The trend is your friend until it bends. Sure!

Dabur is showing a saucer pattern on the weekly charts. Since the prior trend before the saucer pattern is up, this can be called a consolidation pattern - almost 1-1/2 year into it. Watch out for a breakout above the blue horizontal line.




Bartronics is on a breakout point. Weekly chart (above) shows a gain of 29% and the daily chart below shows again a bowl pattern.




WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION



Observation:-


1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT down 35.61%, NIFTY FUT closed up 1.40% last week. OI down due to expiry. But OI down more this time compare to previous expiry showing new series began lite. Total OI at 2.19 CR, compare to 2.87 CR in previous series.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 23 Stock FUTS closed positive, 14 Stock FUTS closed negative and 13 Stock FUTs close flat last week.
3) Total OI of NIFTY 4200 CE is up 3235% prices down 4%, NIFTY 4300 CE is up 784% prices down 8% last week showing call buying. OI of NIFTY 4700 CE is up 364% prices down 25% last week showing call writing. OI of NIFTY 4700CE is 19.27 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
4) OI of NIFTY 3800 PE is up 903% prices down 53%, NIFTY 3900 PE is up 268% prices down 49%, NIFTY 4000 PE is up 168% prices down 44% and NIFTY 4200 PE is up 239% prices down 35% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 4200 PE is 22.85 LK, highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of JULY series CALLs is up by 88.70 LK to 1.32 CR. JULY series PUTs is up by 86.76 LK to 1.43 CR last week. JULY series PCR (OI) at 1.08.



Conclusion :-
I Expect NIFTY SPOT to trade rangebound with volatility next week. Any up move will face R 4500-4510, 4530-40 levels. Above 4550 levels, next target will be 4580-90 level which looks difficult. Failed to sustain above 4550 level means BULL will prefer to book profit. I expect fresh shorts should be initiated above 4500 levels. I expect down move from 4515-4545 zone for target 4270-80, 4240-50 next week.




WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK



SECTOR WATCH
SECTOR : CAPITAL GOODS

Trend : Bullish

Total OI of ABB FUT down 23.94% prices up 6.60%, BHEL FUT down 33.60% prices up 5.38%, LT FUT up 2.04% prices up 7.53% and SIEMENS FUT down 36.24% prices up 6.32% last week. OI down due to expiry. All stocks outperformed last week. We expect positive move in CAPITAL GOODS STOCK FUTs next week.



STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
FSL FUT
Trend : Bullish

Total OI of FSL FUT up 56।40% prices up 7.87% last week. Intraday high 26.40, Intraday low 22.75 last week. We expect positive move above 26.50 levels next week.




Weekly Trend (29-06-2009 to 04-07-2009)



NIFTY (4376) : 4385 & 4460 Will Be Important Resistance. Keep 4200-4180 As Supports (Stoploss) For All Longs

Resistance : 4430-40 / 4505 / 4545 / 4625 / 4775

Support : 4305 / 4270 / 4235 / 4195 / 4150 / 4085



SENSEX (14765) : Keep 13990 As Stoploss For All Longs

Resistance : 14960 / 15020 / 15165 / 15230 / 15460 / 15550

Support : 14630 / 14565 / 14390 / 14160 / 13990 / १३८४०




STOCKS To Watch To BUY



UNITECH : Range Of 77-80,Sl 72,Tgt 90/95/100/105

HOTELLELLA : Range 31-33,Sl 29,Tgt 40/45/47/50

SKUMARN : Range : 43-45,Sl 41,Tgt 50/55/60

KSOIL : Range :58/61,Sl 55,Tgt 65/68/70/75

IDBI :Range 104-08,Sl 101,Tgt 111/15/20/25


TELCO : 335-45,Sl 330,Tgt 350/60/70/80

RPOWER : 172/77,Sl 167,Tgt 182/85/90/93/95

MRPL : 82-85,Sl 79,Tgt 90/95/100/05

RELCAP : 905/25,Sl 885,Tgt 960/80/95/1005

RCOM : 295-305,Sl 285,Tgt 315/25/35


DREDGING : 480-90,Sl 460,Tgt 550/600/50/700

LGBROS : 14-15,Sl 12,Tgt 18/20/23

SURYAPHARMA : 99/101,Sl 95,Tgt 110/115/20/25

KFA : 50-53,Sl 47,Tgt 57/60/65

ANULABS : 26/28,Sl 24,Tgt 35/38/41/43

EXIDEIND : 65/67,Sl 62,Tgt 75/80

RNRL : 90/95,Sl 85,Tgt 100/05

HARRISON (500467) : 76/79,Sl 73,Tgt 85/90/95/100





Half Hourly


Daily


Weekly


" The stochastics is trending up sharply from oversold levels indicating that prices are no longer closing near the lower range and a reversal is on the way."
The Nifty zoomed 133 points to substantiate my view.


Weekly
  • The weekly support of 4250 held and thus the uptrendline is unviolated.
  • Oscillators though overbought are not showing weakness.
  • The Golden Cross of 20-50-200 is intact.
  • This week's candle clearly shows support at lower levels.
  • Second consecutive week of lower bottom lower top.
  • Support on uptrendline is at 4360 for the week.
View : Cautiously optimistic

Daily
  • Nifty once again moved back above the uptrendline and the 5,10 & 20 demas.
  • Stochastic which clearly indicated an upmove in the offing is looking strong.
  • RSI14 has bullishly moved above the 50 line after only briefly moving below it.
  • Correction was restricted to 23.6% levels of entire rise which is very bullish.
  • Retraced more than 40% of the fall from 4693-4143 .
  • Potential Head & Shoulders pattern spotted and we have to be watchful as this move may be the right shoulder.
View: moderately positive

Intra Day
  • Moved above uptrendline.
  • Oscillators are once again in the overbought region but still going strong.
  • An inverted head and shoulders formation spotted having a target of 4540.
  • The shorter term averages are once again bullishly aligned but are yet to align themselevs from the bearish stupor with the longer term averages.
View : moderately positive

My view

It is the action seen during countertrend moves that says the most about the health of the overall trend. Was the fall from 4693 a countertrend move to the rise from 2539? Or is the upmove from 4143 a countertrend move to the fall from 4693? We gauge both scenarios.

We have just had the biggest fall --fast and furious as someone put it--in this uptrend and this a negative.

We will be watchful of the just begun upmove to gauge whether it is continuing trend or corrective of the recent fall. We will continue this analysis daily so we remain on our toes.
  • First mark is negative as volumes were not very impressive.
  • Second mark is positive as advance decline improved , though just a wee bit.

Short term trend is now mildly positive with price above short as well as long term averages on daily charts. Intermediate term is bullish but overbought so one needs to be wary of any sudden change in sentiment which may cause the trend to change. However one needs to trade and the sensible thing to do would be to trade the short term when it is in sync with the intermediate trend which is up. So one can be long for a target of 4538 with a strict stop at 4150-4200.

nse-nifty-29thjunThursday Nifty opened higher near 4300 and closed low at 4250 which was well above near term support at 4200. Yesterday as we had anticipated in earlier post, Nifty was trading higher all day through after getting nice support near 4260/4280 level and finally closed at 4375. Hence swing trade BUY order target met from 4285 to 4375. From past four sessions daily candlestick chart pattern suggests near term target at 4545/4650 where as major support at 4160. So it could be a better idea to BUY and hold some positions till it hits first target at 4550. For Monday a small pull back is expected. If it pulls back to 4350/60 level, then BUY at 4365 with stop loss at 4320 for first target at 4550 and second target at 4650. This second target to come, we might wait for another two or three sessions time period. So as long as it does not pulls back more than 38% ( 4325) of this up leg ( 4229- 4375), it is safe to BUY any point above 4330.




UNITED PHOSPHORUS LIMITED
CMP Rs 155.75

Equity Rs 87.91Cr Face Value Rs 2 Debt-Equity Ratio = 0.57 Book Value Rs 60.26 EPS Rs 10.60

United Phosphorus Limited (UPL) (incorporated in 1969 ) is a crop protection, chemicals and seeds company, headquartered in Mumbai. UPL and Advanta, the two companies in their group, are listed on the Indian stock exchange, with a combined market capitalization of approx $2.5 billion. Integrating the companies is more difficult than acquiring them and UPL has managed it quite well so far.


Products:-
UPL is a leading global producer of crop protection products, intermediates, specialty chemicals and other industrial chemicals. UPL has its presence across value added Agri inputs ranging from seeds to crop protection and post harvest activity.

UPL is -
  • The largest manufacturer of agrochemicals in India
  • Offers a wide range of products that includes insecticides, Fungicides, Herbicides, Fumigants,PGR and Rodenticides.
  • Operates in every continent and has customer base in 86 countries.
  • Ranks amongst the top 5 post- patent agrochemical manufacturers in the world.
  • Developer of more than 100 insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, fumigants and rodenticides for every stage of the growing cycle

United Phophorus Limited has the widest range of generic agrochemical and other chemical intermediates http://www.uplonline.com/products/index.php3?pgidee=agrochemicals

FY09 Performance:-
Since FY02, the company recorded a growth rate of 29% in revenues and 55% in profits. Its FY09 revenues grew 32% driven both by higher volumes & higher prices and Profits after Tax grew 73%.
Diverse Geographical Mix:-
UPL doesn't depend on a specific country/continent to a large extent as the revenues look quite diversified over different regions:- Europe (32% of FY09 revenues), US (22%), India (21%) and ROW (26%). In addition to it, all these regions have shown growth in FY09.

Necessity of Crop-protection:-
Agri-chem demand is sensitive to factors like weather, commodity prices, government farm support and spread of Genetically Modified crops (GM Crops). Even though there is no strict relationship between the agri-commodity prices and growth of crop-protection industry, the rise in prices of agri-commodity does improve the profitability of the farmers and it in turn can enhance their usage of crop-protection products, resulting in an overall growth of the industry. UPL has grown handsomely in recent years, not just because of acquisitions but also because of its fantastic organic growth and having a global footprint, it has a great opportunity to increase its market share to new levels.With people becoming aware of scarcity of water in the world and Indian monsoon playing truant this season, crop-protection and GM Crops are need of the hour and this is where UPL may have a point to prove.

Technical Outlook:-
The stock is in a firm uptrend since October'08 when it hit low of Rs 65 amid overall market panic. But after that it formed a strong base for 4-5 months to start current rally. The stock trades near Rs 155 and looks strong to touch Rs 185-190 levels in short-term, one can keep stop loss at Rs 140 to protect capital.
Investors can accumulate this stock at CMP and even in dips for 1-2 year target of Rs 232.




POWERGRID CORP (Rs 110.85) - A Technical View:-
The stock of POWERGRID is trading in up-channel and is near a very strong support Rs 100-105. Buy the stock around current levels or in dips towards Rs 104-108 for short-term target Rs 124-128. 200DMA at Rs 96-97 can be regarded as a stop loss for short-term players.


Possibility of disinvestment announcement in budget can keep this stock buoyant as Government holds higher stakes in Power companies making them preferred choices for disinvestment list and any reforms in power sector can benefit POWERGRID.


About POWERGRID (Source - Company Website) :-

  • POWERGRID, a Navratna Public Sector Enterprise, is one of the largest transmission utilities in the world.
  • POWERGRID wheels about 45% of the total power generated in the country on its transmission network.
  • POWERGRID has a pan India presence with around 71,500 Circuit Kms of Transmission network.
  • POWERGRID has also diversified into Telecom business and established a telecom network of more than 20,000 Kms across the country.
  • POWERGRID has consistently maintained the transmission system availability over 99% which is at par with the International Utilities.



NIFTY : (4375.50) Today Nifty face resistance at 4425, if cross 4425 then goes up to 4474 and 4484, Nifty find support at 4355, if 4355 break then fall up to 4334 and 4285.

ITC : (196.70)

Buy Above 196 target 1-200, target 2-206, stop loss 192

ICICI BANK : (756.15)

Buy Above 756 target 1-775, target 2-796, stop loss 740
Sell Below 740 target 1-721, target 2-704, stop loss 756

SIEMENS : (498.35)

Sell Below 500 target 1-482, target 2-462, stop loss 510

STERLITE : (613.75)

Buy Above 615 target 1-627, target 2-669, stop loss 600

GTOFFSHORE : (421.10)

Sell Below 420 target 1-414, target 2-407, stop loss 428

TRIVENI : (101.50)

Sell Below 101 target 1-98, target 2-96, stop loss 104

EDUCOMP : (3518.15)

Sell Below 3520 target 1-3451, target 2-3385, stop loss 3550

EVERONN : (408.30)

Sell Below 408 target 1-402, target 2-389, stop loss 414

IVRCL INFRA : (377.15)

Buy Above 378 target 1-400, target 2-427, stop loss 370












Saturday, June 27, 2009

NEWS

Here's the Nifty Futures weekly chart. A likely continuation from here is a retest of the top at 4700 and then a big move down attacking the huge gap area.

Last friday market good postive trend.The nifty will close 4375 levels and nifty will high at 4392 levels.Coming monday also market will go further postive trend continud it. The nifty wil trade abv 4420 level the nifty will go further uptrend for 4620 levels. The nifty inbetween levels for 4420,4430,4450,4470,4490,4520,4550,4580 and 4620 levels. Coming july 3rd railway budget and july 6th main budget. This reason market will go uptrend it. Andalso market will heavy volatile. We expect this month market will good postive uptrending continued in market. Suppose the market will break 4320 levels small correction the market will come 4220 levels.
Nifty Spot

R-4335/4425/4475.
S-4285/4195/4145.

Nifty Fut

R-4343/4433/4483.
S-4293/4203/4153.

Sensex

R-14640/14907/15048.
S-14499/14232/14091.

Yesterday our Sell call not active. But Buy call four target achived. Today Nifty buy abv 4345 SL 4295 tgt 4360,4380,4390,4420,4450,4480 and 4520 levels. Nifty Sell Below 4295 SL 4345 tgt 4280,4260,4250,4230,4220 to 4120 levels.



Monday, June 22, 2009

NEWSLETTER

Free Weekly Stock Market Prediction and Forecast for Last week of June 2009 : 22nd June 2009 to 26th June 2009

Planetary position during Last week of June 2009
Sun will transit from Gemini.
Mercury will transit from Taurus.
Venus will transit from Aries.
Moon will transit from Taurus, Gemini, Cancer and Leo.
Mars will transit from Aries.
Rahu will transit from Capricorn.
Retrograde Jupiter will transit from Aquarius.
Saturn will transit in Leo.
Ketu will transit in Cancer.


SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS

Stock Market Prediction for 22nd June 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Taurus Zodiac sign. Moon void of course on Monday opening of the Stock Markets, indicates Volatility will be seen in Indian Stock Market up to 11.05. Market may try to recover or business in green signal. Some profit booking will be there after 14.30, so be careful.






Stock Market Prediction for 23rd June 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Gemini Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Mercury, indicates Market may slide from opening up to 12.00, so be careful. However, it may recover after 13.00. Market may under selling pressure and volatile, so be careful.







Stock Market Prediction for 24th June 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Gemini Zodiac sign. Moon void of course on Wednesday opening of the Stock Markets, indicates Volatility will be seen in Indian Stock Market up to 10.20. Market may steady or up side between 10.22 and 11.15. Market may go down from Intraday high after 13.10, so be careful.






Stock Market Prediction for 25th June 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Cancer Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Saturn, indicates Market movement would not be clear. Extreme Volatility will be there up to 13.55. Aviod Intraday trading. Hope it will not be BLACK Thursday.






Stock Market Prediction for 26th June 2009


Transiting Moon will be passing through Cancer Zodiac sign. Moon void of course on Friday opening of the Stock Markets, indicates Volatility will be seen in Indian Stock Market up to 12.00. FII buying may come and Market may recover between13.11 and 14.30. Again Some selling pressure will come in Indian Stock Market after 14.55, be careful.





During Last week of June 2009, Moon void of course on Monday, Wednesday and Friday, so Investor are advised to do business with a strict STOP LOSS. As per Vedic Astrology, July 2009 would be good for Market, so you can make position and sell your stocks during July 2009, it would be profitable.

BOUNCE BACK

The Doji appeared on 19/06/2009 Friday on the weekly charts, indicates bounce back during last week of June 2009. During third week of June 2009, The High Court judgment was the key development that triggered a correction in the market heavy weight and with it the markets. The Sensex and the Nifty corrected by 4.70% and 5.89% respectively.

Technical Analysis
Resistance Level for Nifty will be 4326, 4352, 4375, 4447, 4584 and 4601. Support Level for Nifty will be 4270, 4251, 4159, 3849, 3460 and 3445.

Resistance Level for Sensex will be 14630, 14682, 14978, 14996, 15195 and 15261. Support Level for Sensex will be 14257, 14322, 13829, 12954, 11387, 11255.

HARRISON MALAY REARING TO GO



This stock is very interesting from technical analysis view for following reasons

  1. It has made an inverse Head & Shoulder pattern indicating its bullish intentions.
  2. It attempted to breakout with huge volumes from a med term falling resistance line, But unfortunately it attempted on a day when the sensex tanked nearly 500 pts. and it had to retrace in line with the broader market.
  3. It has made several attempts to breakout of the highest close of last 20 sessions.

It should breakout sometime this week and head for 95-100 in short term. The level to enter the stock is above 83 with a stop of 74. Though the stock is headed much higher in medium term.

Sensex Technical View :

- > This is in continuation of the previous chart which i had posted about the momentum line and ever since 8k-10k and this trend line has not been broken. So simply put the medium term trend remains up as of now.

- > Its been observed in the last few months that after hitting the momentum line the index has crossed the recent highs and also with a sharper move.

- > So we need to see how it pans out from 13800-14200. The index can give a good pullback to 14900-15100 also but the most important thing to note is whether it is able to cross 15600 or not and continue with the pattern.

- > If it does then we may also head to 16050-16200. If it doesnt then one needs to be very cautious and skeptical in the short term.

- > There is more to discuss did quite a bit of it in the webinar on the above chart. Little tired on sunday for now so in simpler terms the view remains to keep a short term view and trade strict with discipline.

We had a 1 hr -1hr 15 mins simple webinar today.

Register yourself on www.wiziq.com and then click the link below to watch the recording.



Do send us your feedback about the same on analyseindia@gmail.com . This was a first trial run so needs lot of improvement.


Stocks to watchout for :

ITC

The stock was covered earlier at 185 and did give a small move to 200. Yet again the stock is well placed in a range. If the stock starts staying above it could ove the defensive upmove like HUL and Cipla ( both were covered some time back). Investors can add on dips with 180 stop. Traders look for a move beyond.





Bang..!! the trendline gives support and we saw a big recovery.


For intraday today, nifty shouldnt break 4270 levels, targets could be 4371-4391


Overall on closing basis, i will look at a target of 4392-4452 with a SL below 4270



Sensex Intraday Elliott Wave :: As per last Wolfe Wave chart if Sensex made an intra mediate top in last week, now its moving down with intra mediate impulse 1-2-3-4-5… 5th of 1st wave finish with Ending Diagonal pattern, and move up for 2nd impulse. Maximum target of this 2nd wave in between 14650 to 15150.. If 2nd impulse move with minor double a-b-c, 2nd of c already enter in target.. Maximum target of c in between 14525 to 14750.. Finally both target match in between 14650 to 14750...After compilation of 2nd impulse Sensex once again move down for 3rd impulse..




Crude Oil :: All you know we are predict bottom of crude Oil near $ 30 in our Feb weekly post .. Now Crude Oil treading in corrective up move.. May be finish corrective a-b-c of c near $ 73.4...Watch important level $ 69.3...Once Crude Oil close below $ 69.3, its give conformation of short term top.. Next downward minimum target near $ 58/59 in coming days..



SELL IBREALBELOW183.50 TGT 165>145 STOPLOSS 200.50

BUY BANK OF BARODA ABOVE 435.60TGT444>451 STOPLOSS427.50



BUY BANK OF INDIA 339 TGT347>355 STOPLOSS333


Last week we had mention any major rally correct before next move still we had seen just 20 % retracement and 23%-4151 level 38%around 3850 and 50%is 3592 zones as shown in above chart .


The Indian market opened on higher note tracking positive cues but saw choppy session up and down close with handsome gains.On hourly chart we can see some bounces around 4371-4434 zone .On the downside 4240-4189 zone acts support zone breaking below 4189 more sell can seen .



Last week sensex lost 4.7% and nifty closed down 5.9% respectively. As last week we had mention about Rising wedge and long legged doji combination seen good reversal from upside and touch our nifty level which we had mention 4249-4189 zone .Nifty bounces from 4202 zone and close around 4313 levels .For coming session on daily we are forming Head and shoulder pattern that is another bearish and strong reversal pattern on top still we are in process of forming pattern as shown above chart .If current nifty goes around 4370-4456-4504 level and crack the neckline we can see lower target around 3865-3700 levels .Last week we had seen reliance industries had fill post election gap around 1976 levels .We expect same on nifty will come down around 4000-3795 level to fill gap zone sooner or later .






Now, let us take a look at the Nifty hourly chart:



















In case of Nifty, it actually closed Friday on a good resistance as can be seen from the chart.

However, not discounting the probability of a break higher, If Nifty was to test higher levels, then 4450 seems to be the best possible resistance to me - considering that it was a decent support on the way down and it is a 50% retracement higher. Any substantial break above that and I'll be worried about the down move. In case we go straight down from here and do not test any higher levels before making fresh lows (this is the crucial bit) - then downward targets for Nifty could be in range of 3850 - 3900.



" Trading was even more teachable than I imagined, In a strange sort of way, it was almost humbling." Richard Dennis, Wall Street Journal.


NIFTY : (4313.60) Today Nifty face resistance at 4365, if cross 4365 then goes up to 4405.Nifty find support at 4280, if 4280 break then fall up to 4238 and 4162.

AXIS BANK : (756.15)

Buy Above 757 target 1-773, target 2-788, stop loss 741
Sell Below 741 target 1-720, target 2-706, stop loss 757

ICICI BANK : (714.05)

Sell Below 705 target 1-689, target 2-659, stop loss 727

SIEMENS : (469.35)

Sell Below 464 target 1-454, target 2-439, stop loss 472

STERLITE : (606.45)

Sell Below 603 target 1-585, target 2-562, stop loss 612

JSW STEEL : (604.50)

Buy Above 605 target 1-622, target 2-640, stop loss 590
Sell Below 590 target 1-572, target 2-543, stop loss 605

TATA STEEL : (412.55)

Sell Below 405 target 1-398, target 2-379, stop loss 416

REL CAPITAL : (919.15)

Sell Below 900 target 1-875, target 2-822, stop loss 922

RPOWER : (175.85)

Sell Below 174 target 1-169, target 2-152, stop loss 183

UNITECH : (80.25)

Sell Below 78 target 1-75, target 2-69, stop loss 84



Last friday market open huge downside and recovery some time. But second off after 01.00 pm market will heavy fall upto 4202 levels. Andalso market will recovery from day low at 2.50 pm market will bounce back postive trend for 60 points plus in market's. nifty will close 4320 level's this is most and good support level. Coming monday we expect in market postive trend it will go further uptrend upto 4420 levels. This nifty 4420 level will cross again market bullish upto 4720 to 4920 levels. But nifty will again come downside for 4250 to 4150 levels only. this levels for good support levels in market's. Market every decline level plz buy valuable stocts.
Nifty Spot

R-4282/4358/4401.
S-4239/4163/4120.

Nifty Fut

R-4289/4376/4426.
S-4239/4152/4102.

Sensex

R-14420/14661/14800.
S-14281/14040/13901.

Yesteray our buy call Sl trigged and first target achived. And Sell call three target's achived. Today Nifty buy abv 4290 SL 4260 tgt 4320,4340,4360,4385 and 4420 levels. Nifty sell below 4260 Sl 4290 tgt 4240,4230,4220,4180,4150 and 4120 levels.


Nifty made a 52 week high of 4693.20 on 12 June 2009. The 14 day ATR is 140.82. Subtracting the 3 times the ATR from High Point would be 4270.74. Nifty breached this level on 18 June 2009, when it made a Low of 4222.15. This represents short term reversal

Nifty made the lowest low of the present Swing on Friday, 19 June 2009, when it touched 4206.70. The range from HIP to LOP would be 486.50 or the range from 4693.20 to 4206.70 is 486.50. The 61.8% of 486.50 added to LOP would be 4507.35. Below this point Nifty is weak. The 23.6% of 486.50 added to LOP would be 4321.50. Below this point Nifty would continue to be bearish. And if continued to close below this number i.e., 4321.50 It would target the 127% of 486.50 subtracted from the HIP, i.e., 4075.35.



Nifty Daily Chart (1)



Nifty Daily Chart (2)




Nifty Weekly Chart




Nifty Half Hourly Chart



Intra Day Trend
The short term trend is down but seems to have found support at 4207 for the time being. A pullback was attempted in the last hour of trading, after positive divergences appeared on half hourly charts. It was stalled after hitting resistance at the 23.6% retracement level of fall from 4693 to 4207. Positive divergences are intact , so we can expect the rise to continue towards the other fibonacci retracememnt levels , which are marked on the chart.


Daily Trend
The Daily trend is in neutral zone. The daily momentum indicators are mixed. RSI 14 slipped below the 50 mark but has moved up again, macd is in a sell but above zero line and the stochastic is in oversold zone .Except for the 5 dema all other moving averages are bullishly aligned. Unless we have more evidence we cannot pronounce this fall as a reversal.
In chart one I have marked the consolidation after each rise . The percentage fall has been increasing and this time it has already corrected 81%.


Weekly Trend
Last week we had the ominous long legged doji warning us that the trend may see a change. Nifty confirmed this with a huge black candle engulfing the doji's real body . This candle completes the evening star pattern which is a bearish reversal pattern. This conveys that the bearishness may continue .The oscillators have turned down.The RSI14 has given a sell and gone below the 70 level. The stochastic and macd are yet to give a sell but has waned a bit.

However the Golden cross of 20,50 & 200wema is intact indicating that this fall may just be a correction. The trendline joining bottoms from 2539 has not been violated yet on these charts.We will have to be watchful of the quality of pullbacks to ascertain future movements --- whether it is with good volumes, good breadth, increase in open interest , follow up buying.

Above is a 5 minute chart of yesterday's price action. The day started off with a slow grind up to 43+ region. And then came a sudden 100+ point down move taking the Futures down to 4202. By this time a positive divergence was developing on the 60 minute chart (see below). Thanks to this divergence, the Futures shot up like mad and made another 100+ point move all the way back upto 43++!

Obviously, people who were short from 47 have covered their shorts around 42. Look at the volume for the last 30 minutes on the 5 minute chart. Volume is falling for the last few bars! and that's what makes me think that the fall is not over yet.


NIFTY CAN MOVE UP TILL 4445.CROSS OVER CAN BE CONSIDERED GOOD FOR THE MARKETS WHICH CAN TAKE THE NIFTY TILL 4525 AND THERE AFTER ATTEMPT FOR A NEW HIGH WITH THE OUTCOME OF THE BUDGET.STRICT STOP LOSS SHOULD BE KEPT AT 4190-4150 FOR THE NIFTY.
























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