NEWSLETTER

SENSEX WEEKLY CHART

Current Sensex Technical View :

-- > The targets for this move after the entry point around 9.5k-10.5k was said to be 12900/14500.Also an extension move should not go much beyond 15700-16200.

-- > The maximum time period for the same was mentioned to be 10-13 months or sooner.

-- > The targets have almost been achieved and we might be on the extension move to 16k band. The time taken has been 2 months only!!

-- > Technically the current upmove should not go beyond the 61% correction level of 16.1k. A very optimistic target could also be 75-80% retracement to 18k + which i would like to rule out as the move has been quicker then ideal time period.

-- > As i have mentioned before this move from 8k to 16k is not a BULL RUN and in ideal technical terms this is a consolidation phase which is the transition phase after the major correction.

-- > Historically as per some thumb rules Bull Markets last for 5 years and Bear markets for 3 years. We might have seen 2003 to 2008 as one part of the bull market followed by which we have seen the Bear phase Jan 2008 to March 2009 and possibly we are in a transition and consolidation phase which may range from 8k to 18k.

-- > As we have posted before our 13 year cycle in Sept 2005 which points to 25k/44k/77k by 2018. Do check the same by clicking here to download.

-- > Currently Sensex may try to make an extension in this band of 15.7k-16.2k or round about. After which one would expect a correction of 23.6/38.2/50% of the entire move from 8k to 16k.

-- > The momentum trendline which we have been following ever since 10k as a stoploss or support level to buy on dips continues to remain an important consideration.A break below the same could point to a deeper retracement.

-- > We can look into support levels of retracements once we can confirm a top in the extension target band ( shown in the chart as red ).

-- > As of now the simplest strategy for us is to take some profits of the table and generate a good amount of cash in the portfolio which can be re - deployed at dips with a long term horizon. The exuberance ( distribution in cases ) may stay for quite some in the markets but as an investor/trader one needs to be disciplined !!

-- > This strategy is mainly for the medium to long term portfolio. Traders will continue to get more stock specific opportunities on the long side but at 15.5k + levels one should definitely reduce trading volumes as i do expect volatility to increase.

-- > Reduce trading volumes keep strict stoplosses and after a few more good trading sessions be ready to give back part of the profits back ---- Important line for traders now.

-- > We may again review the levels in details once we confirm an intermediate top ( ya next top could be higher also but after a decent dip).

-- > Also might discuss the above ANALYSIS in details in a WEBINAR in the weekend if possible which may also include more charts and technical details about global indices. Will try this new mode of communication ... Earlier videos at 16k cautioning exit helped.CHECK SENSEX ANALYSIS VIDEO at 16k

NO STOCK UPDATES FOR TOMORROW ...............Its not necessary to trade everyday !

Have a re-look into your old portfolio and current positions consolidate, re-shuffle , make a list of junk stocks to dispose, list of over run stocks to reduce exposure, list of stocks to deploy cash on dips and finally create good amount of cash and a focussed portfolio of stocks you are convinced of.

MY CHART

Nifty :: Very funny if we discuss about bearish scenario in such kind of bullish market.. But it is..!! Bearish Wolfe Wave at top near our Elliott Wave target.. All daily even weekly indicators are in extreme over bought zone with negative divergence.. Be careful at higher level any time correction start from higher level.. Watch resistance 4676/4706 and above it strong resistance 61% of entire fall 4788.. Now onwards our strategy sell at high buy on deep.. Resistance for up move at 4676/4706/4738/4788.. Supports at 4636/ 4550/4463/4455/4419..

(First time we mark right signal in all resistance and support level its mean all resistance and

supports are important for 11^th Jun )

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on gap-up and trade positive through out the session and close with good gains ,For coming session trading above 4680 it likely to test 4711-4736 zones .On the other side trading below 4580 it will test 4510-4488 zones.

Yesterday market gapup open moreover 70 to 80 points. Yesterday our all suggestions success.Also market will trade 52 week high break. Today also market further uptrend continued in market . The market will open huge gap up and the Nifty will trade above 4720 level again further uptrend for this levels 4720,4730,4750,4770,4790 and 4820 levels. Suppose the market will come downside for the levels of 4520 level only.

Nifty Spot

R-4632/4712/4769.
S-4575/4495/4438.

Nifty fut

R-4647/4715/4764.
S-4598/4530/4481.

Sensex

R-15405/15643/15818.
S-15230/14992/14817.

Yesterday our Sell call not active . But buy call 8 target's achived last target not achived. Today Nifty Buy abv 4650 SL 4610 tgt 4670,4690,4720,4740,4780 and 4820 levels.Nifty Sell Below 4610 SL 4650 tgt 4580,4560,4550,4530 and 4520 levels.

FTY 50 - for 11thJun

from kalkatips.com by Santy

Well, today Nifty certainly was trading higher after opening with a big GAP near 4600. Even though I expected it to open high, but this much gap to upside was certainly not in my mind. As we have discussed in the earlier post, it did touch 4660/4670 level today, but however it could not go much higher than 4660 after ranging from 4630 to 4680 all day through. Tomorrow nifty is expected to trade lower and hence Selling at a support/resistance level would be a better idea for intraday trade set up. If it opens below today’s close ( 4655) and gaps down then SELL near or below 4630/25 with stop loss at 4655 for target at 4571/4555 ( Target near 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion). If selling pressure continues, there is a good chance that nifty could see target near 4450/80 which coincide with 100% Fibonacci expansion level.

(Ilango)

I think, I have answered you today, GK. And thanks for pushing me to find answers.
US mkts are waiting to move higher past S&P500-951 to 990-1000 mark with a lot of doubts. Experts are getting whipsawed on regular basis.
Writing higher calls while playing out the uptrend is one way of playing it safe. This is the phase of the tip of the pyramid where you scale down your positions in parts and be ready to exit all longs on the first sign of a reversal confirmation(A close below 4525 as of today).

(waval atul)

here nifty eod chart following extended 3rd upwavepossible target of this wave is 4800 area

look 2-3 days more to momentam coll off

then 4th down consolidaton wave in progress

uper side need cautious and must take protection against long

profit booking on long looks highly attractive

still markt has not given sell signal

comming days volatily will increse

trade level of day is as follows

S&P CNX NIFTY Wave* stoplls:4,647 next day_Buy above :4,663.89next day up target>4,692>>4,737>>>4,765

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S&P CNX NIFTY Wave* stoplls :4,664 next day_Short bellow :4,646.61next day lower target >4,619>>4,573>>>4,545

Nifty Daily Chart


Nifty Half Hourly Chart

I had pointed out 4656 as resistance at the upper trendline of the rising wedge. Though the Nifty traded above this line for a good part of the day, close was just below it.

For tomorrow resistance of the rising wedge is at 4670 and support at 4428. On previous occasions during this rally bearish patterns have been ignored.The momentum seems to say the same pattern may be followed this time too and we may hit the target of 4758 mentioned yesterday.Let me also remind you'll of the 4800 target (4924 on line charts) which I have been mentioning since April, 2009.

In reply to comments about shorting because it closed exactly at resistance point, my answer is NO. Momentum and trend is Up so shorting is dangerous. Prudence would be to keep trailing stop loss at 4428. If broken we may see 4092 levels tested again. Fibonacci retracement levels are shown on half hourly charts.

It was indeed someday for the stock market as it continued its march ahead.During the trading session, due to a major downswing Sensex touched an intraday low of 15416, it recovered sharply and finally end the day at its strong support level of 15466.81 points, up by 339.81 points. The sectoral index such as realty swung both ways and from being a gainer in the first half to finally ending the day as a loser, down by 1.14 per cent. Power, Capital goods and consumer durables were the flavour of the day as they closed well in the green and were up by 3.62, 3.46 and 2.74 per cent respectively.

NIFTY (4655.25)

Resistance : 4710 / 4760

Support : 4595 / 4570 / 4530 / 4495

SENSEX

Resistance : 15350 / 15570 / 16040

Support : 14715 / 14305

NIFTY FUT (4661)

Resistance : 4720 / 4790

Support : 4580 / 4480

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 2.34% with 6% decreasing volumes indicating forming of long positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive with possibility of profit booking at higher levels.

BUY

RCOM,Sl 340,Tgt 365/75/80

MARUTI Above 1115,Sl 1095,Tgt 1140/60

PATELENG Above 425,Sl 420,Tgt 435/40/45+

DABUR Above 110,Sl 105,Tgt 120/23/25

INDUSINDBNK Around 75/80,Sl 70,Tgt 85/90/95 ( Positional)

Sell STERLITE Below 655/60,Sl 665

FUTURES

Buy HINDALCO Above 92,Sl 90,Sl 95.2/95.7/96.5/97.1/98.4/99.3/100/101 (Lot Size : 7036)

Buy RIL Above 2285/90,Sl 2255,Tgt 2320/35/50/65

Sell HPCL Below 322,Sl 325,Tgt 320/18/16/14/11/09/04/01 (Lot Size : 1300)

Sell RELINFRA (1218) Around 1260/55,Sl 1275,Tgt 1230/05

ACC

Buy Around 865/75,Sl 850,Tgt 900/10/20

Sell Around 930/20,Sl 940,Tgt 910/900/890