NEWSLETTER

Sensex Technical View :


Finally Sensex pulls down heavily after the non stop run. The low for the day is 14604 and is very close to the support level which has been holding up for a few sessions. Although testing a support often opens up a possibility of breaking quickly.


So ideally one needs to wait for 2-3 sessions to confirm a trend change. If Sensex continues to close below 14600 one can expect 14100/13500 levels also.


Would review the medium term outlook and trends once we see confirmatory moves over next 6-8 sessions.


Majority of the short term trades on stock specific sides hit their stoplosses/trailing stoplosses on friday and rest today. Short term traders should clean up the portfolio on rise and look for fresh trades with a fresh view and not re-enter stocks which hit stoplosses.


As a trader after a huge line of successful trades there would be a couple of stoploss hits and one needs to be strict with them as a fresh set of trades may recover small losses but big holes in the portfolio can become blackholes which keep sucking capital

ITC remains a buy arnd 180-185 zone and can keep a little lower stop of 177 for short term bounce back.
ING Vysya wait for dips.GAil not triggered yet.Essar Oil stop triggered at 175 :( a bad trade.
Uflex Inds has seen a good drop from highs after an intra move previous day frm 94 to 104 is back to 82 hitting trading stop of 88. Investors can look to add at 74 or lower only with a long term view. Can employ pyramiding strategy.
Small cap stocks like Classic Diamonds, Saksoft i do maintain bullish way but exposures should be low as the price volatility would be high.
Venus Remedies can look to re-enter at 200-205 if booked at 250 +.
NESTLE looks good on charts buy small qty at 1770-1800 with a stop of 1700 ( deep stop so small qty ) for a short term move of 15-20% in 3-4 weeks.

The Indian market opened on gap-up but after opening it trade on red zone and close with deep red negative note . As last week we had alert about negative divergences on on hourly chart today we had seen the effect of divergences ,For the coming session trading below4405 it will test 4360 -4323 zone .On the upside 4510-4523 zone will act as resistances zone .The main support is 4189 levels the uptrend line show on charts.

The Indian market opened on gap-up but after opening it trade on red zone and close with deep red negative note . As last week we had alert about negative divergences on on hourly chart today we had seen the effect of divergences ,For the coming session trading below4405 it will test 4360 -4323 zone .On the upside 4510-4523 zone will act as resistances zone .The main support is 4189 levels the uptrend line show on charts.

The Indian market opened on gap-up but after opening it trade on red zone and close with deep red negative note . As last week we had alert about negative divergences on on hourly chart today we had seen the effect of divergences ,For the coming session trading below4405 it will test 4360 -4323 zone .On the upside 4510-4523 zone will act as resistances zone .The main support is 4189 levels the uptrend line show on charts.

(Azad)
NIFTY : (4429.90) Today Nifty face resistance at 4482 and 4509, if cross 4509 then goes up to 4560 and 4600. Nifty find support at 4400, if 4400 break then fall up to 4352 and 4275.BEML : (926.75)Buy Above 935 target 1-954, target 2-988, stop loss 920Sell Below 920 target 1-905, target 2-887, stop loss 935WIPRO : (405.70)Sell Below 402 target 1-391, target 2-385, stop loss 412L&T : (1480.30)Buy Above 1505 target 1-1552, target 2-1620, stop loss 1475Sell Below 1475 target 1-1432, target 2-1388, stop loss 1505BHEL : (2229.95)Sell Below 2225 target 1-2198, target 2-2108, stop loss 2250THERMAX : (397)Sell Below 395 target 1-384, target 2-374, stop loss 405SIEMENS : (476.60)Sell Below 475 target 1-460, target 2-428, stop loss 490ABB : (701.15)Sell Below 700 target 1-675, target 2-646, stop loss 710MUNDRA PORT : (622.25)Sell Below 620 target 1-604, target 2-581, stop loss 635ICICI BANK : (724.65)Buy Above 740 target 1-761, stop loss 720Sell Below 720 target 1-703, target 2-694, stop loss 740BPCL : (463.25)Buy Above 470 target 1-487, target 2-516, stop loss 452Sell Below 452 target 1-426, target 2-413, stop loss 470


Yesterday market open down 10 to 20 points andalso market will deep down upto 4405 levels closing nifty spot will 4430 levels. The Nifty Spot 4420 level is good support level. The nifty will bounced upto 4480 to 4520 levels.Yesterday all secter's profit booking today also continued.Today also market will open small downside 30 to 40 points down. Andthen market will bounce back 4320 to 4360 levels. The market will bounced upto 4420,4440,4460,4490 and 4520 levels. The market technically strong. The market will further uptrend upto 4920 level. This correction will funish and market will bounce back this levels.
Nifty SpotR-4482/4559/4688.S-4353/4276/4147.Nifty FutR-4477/4541/4669.S-4349/4285/4157.SensexR-14824/15043/15421.S-14446/14227/13849.Yesterday buy call not active but sell call all target's achived. Today Nifty Buy abv 4480 SL 4440 tgt 4520,4530,4550,4580 and 4620 levels. Nifty Sell below 4440 SL 4480 tgt 4420,4380,4360,4340 and 4320 levels.


(Ilango)
Identifying the start of a down move and ending of the same is relatively easier with the help of divergences and completion of elliott waves. And so it was possible to pinpoint a selling point for Monday. However, figuring out the likely moves during the corrective phase quite unpredictable as correctives take all kinds of choppy moves.Looking at the world mkts recovery from the lows, it is quite clear that yesterdays moves below 4450 was excessively done and hence we are likely to open around those levels.A 5 wave move was completed in yesterday's lows and a counter trend move of (abc) with either 5-3-5 or 3-3-5 is likely to develop. Two immediate resistances will be 4482(Pivot point) and 4496(5-day ema) above which 4518-4525 the area which gave supports during yesterday's down moves. All these resistances may not me met in one go as we are likely to see two way moves. Conservatively, I can put todays range as 4440 to 4530, provided the opening is a gap up.The retracements for the fall from 4637 to 4404 are:-38% @ 4492 (Close to the 54-day ema)50% @ 4520 (1, 2 3rd June close & Monday's intra supports)61.82% @ 4548 (The mean of 4450-4637 range move).In sum, a gap up and a possible 1st resistance @ 4485-4495 area, followed by a choppy moves in a range of 4455-4495 and a rally again to 4515-4545 area.If Asian mkts are weak, lower lows @ 4385-4350 are also possibleAs weekly is still in uptrend, markets can still try to hit a new high in the next few days. However, selling in individual stocks with volumes keep this option as a second alternative only.The preferred view is that Nifty to move in a range of 4405 to 4545 for a day or two and then head lower towards 4100(Approximately)

Santy
Well divergence did not happen as we expected during Thursday’s session, rather market went higher to make new high near 4629 nearly 80 points above our entry level (expected sell zone was at 4550). But however, divergence confirmed today when nifty broke the trend line near 4565 and closed way down at 4417. So as we expected market to be pull back below 4550 level, hence SELL order from 4555 to 4515 target met for intraday trade opportunity. As you can see from the chart, today nifty pulled back to a great extend ( Fibonacci extension of 61.8%) and hence for tomorrow I would be looking to BUY, if it gets support after opening level. If tomorrow nifty goes a bit lower in first half, then watch to BUY (with price action HH and HL pattern) above 4435 with stop loss at 4400 for target at 4510/35.

Nifty Daily ChartOn Thursday while analysing for 5th June I cautioned, "The continuous rise is tiring everyone who is waiting for a fall. Don't get too tired and jump into this speeding markets. If you have to, then do so with a proper strategy. Else wait for the elusive fall." The elusive fall did come and I hope readers would not have thrown caution to the wind.I had identified the trade of Friday, 5th June 2009, as a shooting star which is a bearish pattern. This bearishness was confirmed today by the huge bearish candle. The 4450 level gave way easily and Nifty went past the 4417 level, which I have marked as support on the weekly charts put up yesterday.If intra week we don't manage to hold 4417 then chances of a fall to 4024 levels are high.Immdediate target for this fall is at 4334-4315. A bounce/resumption of uptrend could be expected at this level. For tomorrow, if Nifty fails to trade above 4475 then a test of 4380--4332-4315 is possible.

Nifty Daily ChartOn Thursday while analysing for 5th June I cautioned, "The continuous rise is tiring everyone who is waiting for a fall. Don't get too tired and jump into this speeding markets. If you have to, then do so with a proper strategy. Else wait for the elusive fall." The elusive fall did come and I hope readers would not have thrown caution to the wind.I had identified the trade of Friday, 5th June 2009, as a shooting star which is a bearish pattern. This bearishness was confirmed today by the huge bearish candle. The 4450 level gave way easily and Nifty went past the 4417 level, which I have marked as support on the weekly charts put up yesterday.If intra week we don't manage to hold 4417 then chances of a fall to 4024 levels are high.Immdediate target for this fall is at 4334-4315. A bounce/resumption of uptrend could be expected at this level. For tomorrow, if Nifty fails to trade above 4475 then a test of 4380--4332-4315 is possible.

(SVShah)
Market Outlook: 09 June 2009
Globally the equity markets plunged today on account of poor economic data from the US markets. With the Jobless claims increasing and the housing starts declining the Asian markets opened on a cautious note and closed in red. Similarly the Indian markets opened in green but there after witnessed only one direction and that was downwards. After opening in green, while Sensex closed at 14665.92 (Down 437 Points), Nifty closed at 4429.90 (Down 157 points). On the sectoral front realty lost 10.54 per cent and even metals lost the sheen. Even Bankex, Consumer Durables and PSU indices were down by more than 4 per cent. We feel it was a combine effect of profit booking and weak global cues.
NIFTY (4429) : Has Supports Around 4355 Levels, If 4355 Broken With Volumes Then 4300 Lvl Stands As Support.
Resistance : 4480 / 4545 / 4585 / 4665
Support : 4380 / 4355 / 4315 / 4275
NIFTY FUT (4434)
Resistance : 4445 / 4480 / 4510 / 4555
Support : 4360 / 4290 / 4170
SENSEX (14665.92)
Resistance : 15035 / 15400
Support : 14450 / 14235
On Tuesday,Opening is Flat to Down,
Stay Short Below 4450,Sl Above 4470,Tgt 4355-4315-4275.
Sustain Above 4470,Buy with Sl Below 4450,Tgt 4510-4545-4585.
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI up 2.22% with 10% increasing volumes indicating forming of short positions.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade negative with volatility.
BUY
TCS Above 730,Sl 720,Tgt 745/55/65/75/85/95+ (Positional)
BHARATFORGE Above 180,Sl 170,Tgt 185/90/95/200/205
WIPRO Above 405,Sl 395,Tgt 415/25/35/40
BUY POSITIONAL
PRAJINDS Above 100,Sl 90
BEML Above 940/45,Sl 930
BALRAMPURCHINI Above 100,Sl 90
POLARIS Above 100,Sl 90
SELL
CHENNAIPETRO Below 195,Sl 205
NEYVELILIGNITE Below 130,Sl 135,Tgt 125/20/15
BIOCON Below 205,Sl 210,Tgt 200/195/90
SBIN (1696),Sl Above 1715,Tgt 1655/40
BHARTIARTL Below 815,Sl 830,Tgt 800/785/65/50
COLGATE Below 515,Sl 535,Tgt 500/480/60+
HEROHONDA Below 1460,Sl 1490,Tgt 1435/05/1385/65/45+
FUTURES
Buy POLARIS Above 101/02,Sl 99,Tgt 105.2/106.1/107/108.3/109.5/110/111.4 (Lot Size : 5600)
Sell RPOWER 179/81,Sl 183,Tgt 177.3/176.4/174.6/172.8/171/169.2/167.4/166 (Lot Size : 2000)
SUNPHARMA (1325) : Looks Bullish
Support : 1295/1275
Resistance : 1330/1350/1375/1390/1410