NEWSLETTER

Manas

Hi Friends,

Hope you all missed the daily nifty updates when i was not here, but now i am back, and will try and send daily updates once again.

As of now i am not trading, and trying to get a hold of things back again. And depending on how my levels work, we will start serious trading again in next 2 weeks.So consider my levels only for educational purpose :-)

If you look at the attached chart, nifty is still in the medium term uptrend, and just just been consolidating here.Once black trendline(arnd 4200 levels) is broken, nifty will be in trouble, and may target 4090-4050 levels, where it will again get strong support.

and then if 4050 is broken, nifty should go on to fill the huge gap andmay tgt 37XX levels.

However this is just an overview of what lies ahead in the days to come.

As of now, i have a gut feel that 4200 - 4190 levels will be held, and nifty may give a pull back from there.. and targets could be 4350 levels.

we will have a clearer picture after friday's (weekly) closing

Resistence - 4288 - 4306

Support - 4263 - 4230 - 4195

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Ever since June 10th its been stated again and again about a possibility of a correction from 15500 and here we are close to 14k in no time.

On the upside 14630/14930 would be a good resistance for now.

Momentum trendline is now around 13900 and gap support 13500.

Continue to trade for extreme short term and be quick as moves would be choppy. Check the 5 min Nifty chart posted below

Stocks to watchout for :

IDBI

The stock has seen huge volumes in the last 1 month and is showing lot of strength. The stock if crosses 112-114 could even head up to 130.Keep a stop of 106 on triggering of trade.There is a lot of market buzz on the stock so will be volatile.

Tata Communication

The stock has seen multiple bottoms around 460 and good channel support around 450. The stock can give a bounce from here. Take your own call.

GLENMARK

The stock can be looked with a long term view by taking 15-25% exposure at current levels and then pyramid the position.Downside could be 135/160. So accordingly spread your buying. For a guide check LnT example.

MY CHART

Nifty :: As we say in yesterday post now Nifty daily chart required lower top formation for mid term correction.. May be for completion of this structure any time Nifty bounce beck from lower level .. Now be careful in shorting at lower level.. Watch strong support 4232/4180 and resistance 4372/4400..In one level above 4268 momentum seems up, below 4268 momentum down.. Our strategy for 19^th Jun buy on deep (S.L 4180) Sell on high (S.L 4400).. Resistance for up move at 4288/4332/4365/4372/4400.. Supports at 4232/4180/4110…

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on weak note tracking global cues and ended with red zone. After the negative inflation nifty fell fell in red terrain saw sell off around the sector .If we open gap down around 4189 zone or today low not broken we can see pullback around 4370-4453 zones .On the lower side 4220-4189 zone will act as support zone .

Axit D ShahHello Friends,


Nifty EOD Chart 18 June 2009





Nifty Close 4251

Support : 4211 / 4171 / 4141

Resistance : 4313 / 4343 / 4383

In our earlies posts on 16 June 2009 ( Click to check the views ) we have updated that Nifty needs to close above previous highs of 4675 - 4690 for fresh bull run for targets 4800 - 5000 respectively but it did not do so & hence the profit booking started. Also it came down to test 4444 levels & bounced back upto 4545 but did not close above this. 4545 spot Nifty level was important key level & 4444 was trail stop loss for all long positions.


On hourly charts we can see that once 4444 was broken a basket full of selling pressure came in markets & in just 5 trading sessions we are down by 500+ points from recent top.


On above charts we can see that Nifty is now at important trend line support near 4200-4225 levels, this trend line is the line which is supporting the Bulls in the markets since it has started. So this could be the Key level in short run & some bounce back is expected from this junction. The Trend Reversal level can be placed again at 4444 & close above this levels for 2 to 3 sessions can take markets tests recent highs.

Another View Trading below 4200-4225 can take markets test recent lows near 4100 levels. Next week F&O expiry & this may make markets volatile in the short run. So traders need to take due care while handling stop loss levels & must follow trading Gimmics.

PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURE RS CRORES FOR 18 JUNE 2009 :

Fii -585
Dii +539
Fii (Derivatives) -312
Index Futures -220
Index options +136
Stock Futures -221
Stock Options -7

News :
Inflation has turned -ve 1.61% provisional for the 1st time in 32 years since 1977-78. This is Wholesale price index (WPI) but Retail or Consumer Price Index (CPI) is too high around 8-10%. Crude Prices are rising, Food Prices are rising, Power Prices are rising & many more prices are rising but still inflaion -ve ? When inflation was rising we remember that FM use to come out & say that we need to check the base for calculating the inflation nos as many of the articles & prices are not included. Hope the media will not panic about Deflation now !!!!!

SEBI scraps entry load for Mutual Funds & Cuts fees for Intermediaries.
On rights issue:
The Sebi board has also rationalised disclosure norms for rights issues. Henceforth, there will be no preferential issue for superior voting rights. Also, no listed company can issue shares with superior rights.
On mutual fund schemes:
Mutual fund investors have a reason to cheer. There will be no entry load on any mutual fund schemes from now on. Distributors will now have to disclose commission for schemes. In a landmark move, mutual fund investors will now decide on the commission payable to distributors.
Fee cut for intermediaries:
The board has decided to rationalise the fees charged by intermediaries. It plans to cut fees for financial intermediaries by 50%. Broker fees for debt deals have been cut to Rs 2.5 per Rs 1 crore of turnover.
On initial public offerings:
From here on, companies planning an initial public offering will have to list on at least one national exchange.

Yesterday market open down and sometime market will recover lower level to positive trand. But market second off again heavy selling purssure come in market down moreover 130 points. The closing huge recover and closing of Nifty 4250 levels. Today market we expect good support for 4220 to 4250 levels. This level market will bounce back level the nifty will silently pickup to postive trend. The nifty will go uptrend levels for 4280,4320,4340,4360,4380 and 4420 levels. The Nifty will trade above 4420 level again market will bullish upto 4720 to 4920 levels. Suppose nifty will break and trade 20 to 30 minute 4220 levels. The nifty will come downside upto 4120 to 4020 levels. Today also we expect deadcat bounce back in market's.This level for good time to investing in markets.

Nifty Spot

R-4283/4343/4436.
S-4190/4130/4037.

Nifty Fut

R-4300/4366/4450.
S-4215/4147/4064.

Sensex

R-14362/14535/14805.
S-14092/13919/13650.

Yesterday our buy call not active , But Sell call four target achived. Today nifty buy abv 4300 SL 4260 tgt 4320,4340,4360,4380 and 4420 levels. Nifty Sell below 4260 SL 4300 tgt 4240,4230,4220,4180,4150 and 4120 levels.

(Ilango)

(Niftytrends)

We have yesterday posted chart and showed -ve divergence which pulled market down. Now all have same question in mind are we moving down to see 3900 levels ? This small so called bull market ended ?

What we feel is this fall has to come as many indicators showing -ve divergence and where not able to move up. Yesterday if anyone tracked Yen has also fallen 1.3$ and so sentiment was negative from morning itself . If you watch crude you will see if bounce back which show bulls still alive and will take all opportunities to save their goal post.

Now our view is any bounce which has to come should come here and we should hold 4345 on closing basis .We will suggest buy on dips here with stoploss below 4300.



(pankaj564)

yesterday i had mentioned abt trend line on log scale chart which was intact since march. today it was broken and as per expectation more deeper correction was seen.i had attched a 5 day chart showing movement. tomorrow we can see a pull back which can face strong resistance at 14526/4365 which were lows before this correction. as per downward channel we can go maxm upto apprx 14630.

i had given vivek patil's views in last mail.he has given 2 options on breaking 14526, both were bearish.
first more bearish : we can correct severly and we can go below 13519 in coming 3 sessions.
second less bearish view : on correcting by more than 1412 points (14931-13519) from 15600 that is 15600-1412=14188 we can correct upto a level higher then 13519.
today we have corrected exactly upto 14188 and closed at 14265.
please keep his views in yr mind.

now my obervations:
we have broken upmoving trend line on log scale today,on linear scale it may get support around 14k tomorrow and very soon it will break in coming days.
we have corrected below 3/5/8/13/21 days moving avgs as per fibo next imp mov avg comes at 34 dma.
so now we can face resistance at 21 dma at 14637 and can get support at 34 dma at 13828 as on today.
i had discussed retracement lvls of fall from 11621-15600 few days back. since we have violated trend line so we shd consider now retracement lvls for full upmove from 8047 to 15600.
first imp support comes at 13817 at 23.6%(if considered from 7697 it comes 13734)
so i feel there are bright chances that we get corrected upto 13800 and we start a strong upmove as a pre budget rally.on break of 13700 this view will get invalidated. we are having rsi lvls around 51 so by the time we correct upto 13800 we can be highly over sold also.
only 5 trading days r left for f n o expiry of june series. that will also oncrease volatality.

Nifty Half Hourly Chart


Nifty Half Hourly Chart

Nifty Daily Chart

Fall continues. Nifty has as of today broken the uptrendline drawn from the lows of the uptrend. All daily momentum indicators are weak. If we manage to trade above 4252 levels we may have a small pullback else falling towards 4092 -3925 seems imminent. Advance decline figures were skewed in favour of declines for the 9th day in a row.

Not much can be read into the half hourly charts except that it is finding support on the trendline. The fall has been continuous and may continue tomorrow. Expect some short covering as it is last day of the week.

Weekly charts support at 4140.

(ss)

Here's a 60 minute chart of Nifty Futures. Prices have penetrated below the lower trendline of the expanding triangle. The picture is weak and more downside is on the cards. This is a perfect set up for selling into weak pullbacks. Also there is a crossover of the 21 and 89 period moving averages. The 14 period RSI is below 30 but there is no positive divergence yet to suggest a strong pullback.