Planetary position during Third week of June 2009
Sun will transit from Gemini.
Mercury will transit from Taurus.
Venus will transit from Aries.
Moon will transit from Aquarius, Pisces and Aries.
Mars will transit from Aries.
Rahu will transit from Capricorn.
Retrograde Jupiter will transit from Aquarius.
Saturn will transit in Leo.
Ketu will transit in Cancer.
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Stock Market Prediction for 15th June 2009
Transiting Moon will be passing through Aquarius Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in separating aspect with Transiting Saturn, indicates Market may business in green signal upto 11.30, but volatility will be there, so be careful. Market may go down from Intraday high after 13.10, but it will recover during last session.
Stock Market Prediction for 16th June 2009
Transiting Moon will be passing through Pisces Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Mercury, indicates it is not a good day for Market, Market may under selling pressure and volatile, so be careful. There may be short term recovery after 14.06, it would not be for long period.
Stock Market Prediction for 17th June 2009
Transiting Moon will be passing through Pisces Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Mars, indicates Market may steady or up side between 10.19 and 11.15. Market may try to touch both extremes, so be careful. FII buying may come after 13.40.
Stock Market Prediction for 18th June 2009
Transiting Moon will be passing through Aries Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting retrograde Jupiter, indicates Market movement would not be clear. Aviod Intraday trading. Market may steady or up side during last session of the day between 14.30 and 15.30. Market may slide from higher level, Be careful and Be cautious.
Stock Market Prediction for 19th June 2009
Transiting Moon will be passing through Aries Zodiac sign. Transiting Moon will be in applying aspect with Transiting Venus. Transiting Moon is not getting any point in Astakvarga system, indicates Market may start business in RED signal. Market may steady or up side between 13.15 and 14.02. Market may slide from higher level, Some selling pressure will come in Indian Stock Market after 14.25, Be careful and Be cautious.
Technical Analysis
Resistance Level for Nifty will be 4636, 4649, 4693 and 4870 . Support Level for Nifty will be 4632, 4485, 4451 and 4445.
Resistance Level for Sensex will be 15600, 15789, 16632 and 16666. Support Level for Sensex will be 15154, 14800, 14747 and 13900.
Nifty :: As we say from last 3 day’s Nifty constantly face resistance near 4690 region and constantly turn down after touch this level in last three treading session.. Still Wolfe Wave alive.. Nifty near to our Elliott Wave target with extreme over bought condition.. In intraday chart in last treading hour Nifty made triple bottom and try to hold our strong support 4552/4546.. Now for 15th Jun 4552/4546 works as strong support..But in such kind of bearish situation avoid buying if Nifty move up from here.. For intraday watch 4585, above 4585 short term intraday momentum up, below 4585 momentum down.. Our strategy same as yesterday for 15th Jun Sell at high (intraday S.L 4695/positional S.L 4800) buy on deep (S.L 4546).. Resistance for up move at 4695/4722/4740/4788/4800.. Supports at 4552/4546/4474/ 4326/4322..
NiftyWeekly On above nifty weekly chart we had seen major rally always corrected and retrace 38% to 61 % before next move but from lower levels still we had seen only one way rally with out any correction or retracement
NiftyDaily Last week sensex gained 0.9% and nifty closed flat to down 0.1% respectively. On the upside nifty facing strong resistances 4650-4700 zone for coming day we can see nifty can move in range 4700-4487 zone and trading below 4487 we can see sharp sell off and we can test 4249-4189 zones .The Rsi is s till high and market are overbought zone on upside 4633-4733 level will act as resistances zones.The huge post election gap needs to be filled or partially filled .On weekly chart we had formed Long legged Doji candlestick pattern. Long legged doji pattern suggest great amount of indecision on the market .This pattern is formed when the prices trade well above and below the day opening price, but then close almost at the same level as the opening price. It means that the end result is not different from the initial open despite the whole excitement and high volatility during the day .This implies a loss of sense of direction and that there is great amount of indecision in the market.
The Indian market opened on higher note tracking positive cues and saw selling pressure at higher level close in red terrain .On hourly chart we are seen Rising Wedge pattern that is reversal pattern but still we had not crack from wedge pattern,for valid pattern we have to close below 4507 levels.For the confirmation of the pattern we need to break support line convincing fashion .For coming session if nifty trader below 4566 levels it may test 4521-4497 zones.On the upside trading above 4650 level we can see further move towards 4730-4750 zones.
BUY CIPLA BELOW 251 TGT 260>267 STOPLOSS 245
SELL SBI BELOW 1627 TGT 1577>1546 STOPLOSS 1669
SELL NDTV BELOW`153.50 TGT 144>137 STOPLOSS163
NIFTY : (4583.40) Today Nifty face resistance at 4600, if cross 4600 then goes up to 4663 and 4742. Nifty find support at 4525, if 4525 break then fall up to 4509 and 4454.
SIEMENS : (501.75)
Sell Below 500 target 1-480, target 2-457, stop loss 512
STERLITE : (720)
Buy Above 725 target 1-735, target 2-755, stop loss 720
Sell Below 720 target 1-706, target 2-695, stop loss 725
ABB : (759.80)
Sell Below 755 target 1-717, target 2-693, stop loss 765
AXIS BANK : (703.75)
Buy Above 716 target 1-735, target 2-765, stop loss 701
Sell Below 701 target 1-686, target 2-662, stop loss 716
ICICI BANK : (742.45)
Buy Above 755 target 1-774, target 2-795, stop loss 740
Sell Below 740 target 1-727, target 2-705, stop loss 755
JSW STEEL : (707.30)
Buy Above 710 target 1-740, target 2-807, stop loss 680
Sell Below 680 target 1-657, target 2-605, stop loss 710
THERMAX : (435.15)
Sell Below 440 target 1-420, target 2-404, stop loss 452
TATA STEEL : (457.75)
Sell Below 455 target 1-445, target 2-437, stop loss 463
This is a Relative Strength Chart for Nifty to CNX 500. It shows Nifty in Sell mode but in X column ready to give a buy signal. The fastest movement in this chart after January 2008. Which might indicate that Nifty has bottomed out, in medium term.
Following, making the swing low, it touched 4693.20 on 12 June 2009. The range comes out to be, 328.10 points. The golden mean comes arounf 4567 and Nifty made a low of 4566.15 on Friday. It goes on to show the importance of Golden Ratios in calculating the major Supports and Resistances. If Nifty breaches 4567 then next major support is 4529, as always. Below 4529, we have 4443 and below that it may test 4288.
Looking above 4771 would be a major resistance for Nifty this week. Nifty is quietly gaining strength at these levels, so we must be prepared for some stupendous fireworks, probably later in the week or may be week starting 21 June 2009.
The S&P CNX Nifty played out as expected. The momentum at the end of the day remains negative as it has closed near the low of the day. At larger time frame, RSI(14) has formed a Class A Negative Divergence, and it has been resisted by the 20 sma, thereby signifying a breach of the 2 and 3 day swing lows at least, in the coming week. But today it has retained the 2 day swing low at 4551. So next week would be more profitable, at least that's what seems at the end of the day, today.
Macroeconomic indicator:
1. DOW has learned the art of volatile sessions but closing flat. Economy showing some signs of revival atleast the way G8 and other world leaders are trying to project. G8 plans reverse stimulus ahead..
2. Asia stock as opened week. China FDI investments have slowed by 20% or so. So really on face of it not much has changed.
3. India is showing gradual signs of fatigue at higher levels and shorts are calling the short the moment Nifty edges past 4550- 4600 levels. Lead up to budget is the only wait and market has some expectations. If these expectations are not met – market will suffer a heart break.
We expect market to open flat with a south bias. Trading call can be initiated on short side, but these are positions which needs to be left open for a week for good gains.
A) Nifty 50 Index
Trading on short side for 1-2% gain.
Trade on short side with 1-2 % day trading gain.
Sell- Current levels – 4575-4585
Buy- 4536
Stop loss – 4600
Target – 4512 (Daily chart)
Stock Specific Futures:
Avoid stock specific future for today.
Margin Trading:
Same as stock specific futures.
Investment tips for today.
Start acquiring capital goods (ABB, BHEL, L&T), Auto (Maruti), Steel (SAIL), Power (NTPC), IT (TCS, Infosys), Bank (SBI, PNB), Reliance, RPL, Airtel, Cement (GACL, Ultratech) at lower levels. Take preferred midcaps stocks like TTML, Idea Cellular, IFCI, Satyam, Reliance Energy, RNRL at lower levels as well.
That afternoon, the abbot spoke of the importance of their work in the fields.
At the end of the talk, the boy said to one of the monks:
‘I was really shocked. I expected to hear an enlightened sermon on sin and virtue, but the abbot talked only about tomatoes and irrigation and things like that. Where I come from we all believe that God is mercy and that all we have to do is pray.’
As discussed in the earlier post, nifty was in negative territory all day though ranging from 4585 to 4675, hence meeting Sell order target from 4655 to 4580, however on Thursday Nifty ended higher near 4660. On Friday it lost the ground during midsession and traded all day low after breaking nearest support zone at 4640 and finally closed at 4583. If you have been following my post quite frequently, then you must have got a chance to SELL again at 4640 (same call as of for Thursday) for target at 4570. On Friday Nifty was closed at 4583 which is near dynamic support level (between Simple Moving Averages 30 and 50). If market opens above previous day close (4580) then watch if price goes higher by making higher highs and higher lows in 5/15 minutes time frame. If this scenario happens then BUY above 4605 with stop loss at 4580 for target at 4690/4700. But in the case of less buying/ selling activities stay away from market as long as proper BUY or SELL signals come. If price goes lower substantially after small retracement then you could SELL below 4570 with stop loss at 4605 for target at 4500. (Just be cautious when you go counter trend !! )
Nifty Weekly Chart
Nifty Daily Chart 
Nifty Half Hourly Chart
Nifty Half Hourly Chart Showing Magnified ActionGolden Cross of 20, 50 and 200 weekly moving averages. This makes the weekly/intermediate scenario very bullish. Point to be noted is that the Golden cross of all three moving averages have come in the same week dues to the sharp rise in the Nifty. This has never happened before.
A long legged doji was formed indicating indecision. Doji on weekly charts needs to be taken seriously, especially since the momentum indicators are overbought and the doji was formed at significant resistance. A correction which is long overdue, may have begun. Though my reading is this correction may not be easy for the bears. We may be in for a lot of volatility.
Daily Charts
The rising wedge and "Inside Day" pattern high and low levels have not been violated. Oscillators are in negative divergence. The rising wedge has support at 4484 which coincides with the 4500 at which level a good amount of puts have been written. If this level does not hold then we could go to 4350-4200 levels. Levels are marked on the charts.
The rising wedge on the line charts though, has been broken.Watch the earlier low 4430 on these charts for further weakness to 4092 .
Half hourly Charts
We will talk here only of the recent action as rising wedge has been discussed on daily time frame.
Since last 3 days the Nifty has not been able to scale the 4689-4693 levels. It has proved strong resistance attracting profit booking rather than follow-up buying. The blue short term trendlines depict this.Lower trendline sloping downwards with lower lows and upper trendline flat.
If 4551 is held then we can expect retest of 4693, else a retest of 4365.
Fibonacci supports and trendline supports are marked on the charts.
Resistances are 4645 - 4693 -4770.
Questions asked are, "is it still a buy at dips?" Yes, because the intermediate trend is still bullish. We would need to see a lower low established before changing our view of the intermediate uptrend signficantly.
NIFTY (4583.4)
Resistance : 4615 / 4665 / 4725 / 4745
Support : 4550 / 4535 / 4485 / 4455 / 4425
SENSEX (15237.94)
Resistance : 15340 / 15395 / 15480 / 15560 / 15765
Support : 15200 / 15130 / 15075 / 14975 / 14910 / 14825 / 14745
NIFTY FUT (4588.85)
Resistance : 4620 /4650 / 4675 / 4730 / 4755
Support : 4570 / 4535 / 4485 / 4450
BANK NIFTY (7060.95)
Resistance : 7140 / 7250 / 7425
Support : 6955 / 6850
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI flat with 29% increasing volumes. Unwinding of long positions plus forming of fresh short positions too.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.
On Monday,Opening Is Flat To Weak,
Buy NIFTY Above 4620/30,Sl 4600,Tgt 4670/4700+
Sell NIFTY Below 4580/70,Sl 4600,Tgt 4540/4510+
BANKNIFTY
Buy Above 7130,Sl 7100,Tgt 7170/7240
Sell Below 7070,Sl 7100,Tgt 7030/6965/6850
RELIANCE
Buy Above 2370,Sl 2365,Tgt 2405/2435
Sell Below 2345,Sl 2355,Tgt 2310/2290
SBIN
Buy Above 1660,Sl 1650,Tgt 1690/1710
Sell Below 1630,Sl 1640,Tgt 1610/1590
Accumulate Stocks In Weak Market Sentiments (Delivery)
MOSERBAER,Sl 95,Tgt 115+
GVKPOWER,Sl 40,Tgt 55+
SATYAMCOMP,Sl 65,Tgt 100/10+
GMRINFRA Above 160,Sl 150
UNIONBANK Above 230,Sl 220
IDFC , RIIL , INDIACEM
BUY
NAGARCON Above 135,Sl 130,Tgt 140/43/45
TATACOMM Above 530,Sl 520,Tgt 545/55/60
RANBAXY Above 285,Sl 280,Tgt 295/305/15
ICICIBNK Above 740,Sl 735,Tgt 755/65/75
CAIRN Above 245,Sl 240,Tgt 260/65/75/85/95+ (Positional)
CIPLA Above 255,Sl 245,Tgt 260/65
ONGC Above 1135,Sl 1120,Tgt 1150/60
GMRINFRA Above 165,Sl 160,Tgt 170/75
RPL Above 145,Sl 140,Tgt 150/55/60
UNIONBNK Above 235,Sl 230,Tgt 240/45/50
SELL
TECHM Below 715,SL 725,Tgt 700/690
DLF Below 365,Sl 370,Tgt 360/55/50
RANBAXY Below 280,Sl 285,Tgt 270/65
AXISBNK Below 700,Sl 710,Tgt 690/85
RELCAPITAL Below 965,Sl 975,Tgt 945/35
RELINFRA Below 1170,Sl 1185,Tgt 1150/40
ROLTA Around 140/35,Sl 145
Buy IBREAL Fut Above 225,Sl 222,Tgt 227.8 / 29 / 31/33/35.7 / 38 / 40/43/48 (Lot Size : 2600)
Sell MTNL Fut Below 110,Sl 113,Tgt 109.5 /108.9/108.3 / 107/06/05.6 / 104/03/02 (Lot Size : 3200)
GOLD : Sell Below 14515,Sl 14600,Tgt 14385/290
SILVER : Sell Below 23500,Sl 23610,Tgt 23095/860
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
Recommencement Of Trading In Shares On 16/6/09
SHREE PRECOATES STEELS
NSE Listings Of Shares On 16/6/09
UB ENG LTD.
S E INV LTD.
KEMROCK IND & EXP Ltd
WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION
Observation:-
1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 4.44%, NIFTY FUT closed flat last week.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 20 Stock FUTS closed positive, 23 Stock FUTS closed negative and 7 Stock FUTs close flat last week.
3) Total OI of NIFTY 4500 CE is up 1.94% prices down 15.53% and NIFTY 4600 CE is up 2.21% prices down 20% last week showing not only profit booking plus call writing. OI of NIFTY 4700 CE is up 174.60% prices down 27.75% showing aggressive call writing. OI of NIFTY 4700CE is 38.14 LK, highest OI in CALLs.
4) OI of NIFTY 4200 PE is down 12.22% prices down 42.26% last week showing short covering. OI of NIFTY 4300 PE is up 12.26% prices down 37.90%, NIFTY 4400 PE is up 12.12% prices down 30.50% and NIFTY 4500 PE is up 21.18%, prices down 23.90% last week showing short covering plus buying at lower levels. OI of NIFTY 4500 PE is 33.43 LK highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of JUNE series CALLs is up by 37.63 LK to 2.61 CR. JUNE series PUTs is up by 34.19 LK to 3.13 CR. JUNE series PCR (OI) at 1.19.
NIFTY (4583.4) : Support Around 4450,If Broken 4335 May Be Seen
Resistance : 4660 / 4725 / 4775 / 4865
Support : 4555 / 4450 / 4400 / 4375 / 4335 / 4215
SENSEX (15237.94)
Resistance : 15465 / 15655 / 15720 / 15950 / 16200
Support : 15120 / 14975 / 14640 / 14450 / 14265 / 14050
NIFTY FUT (4588.85) : 4500 Pe OI of 33 Lacs & 4700 Ce OI of 38 lacs,,So 4500 & 4700 our Important Levels
Resistance : 4640 / 4695 / 4735 / 4880
Support : 4565 / 4520 / 4445 / 4415 / 4240
BANK NIFTY (7060.95)
Resistance : 7100 / 7350 / 7630
Support : 6800 / 6550
GOLD : Range Of 14400-14700
Resistance : 14720
Support : 14320 / 14270
SILVER : Range Of 182-191
Resistance : 194 / 197
Support : 178
SECTOR WATCH : BANKING
Trend : Bearish
Total OI of BANKBARODA FUT up 58% prices flat, BANKINDIA FUT up 19% prices down 8%, CANBANK FUT up 136% prices down 14%, KOTAKBANK FUT up 21% prices flat, SBIN FUT up 49% prices down 9% and UNIONBANK FUT up 118% prices up 7% last week.
Most of BANKING STOCK FUTs showing shorts build up last week. Only UNIONBANK FUT showing long positions.
We expect BANKING STOCK FUTs to show down move next week. STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
SBIN FUT
Trend : Bearish
Total OI of SBIN FUT up 49% prices down 9% last week. Intraday high 1803.60, Intraday low 1628.40 last week. We expect SBIN FUT to show down move in coming week.
Conclusion :-
I Expect NIFTY SPOT to show down move with volatility. NIFTY SPOT Minor Support 4500-4510, 4460-50 levels, below 4450 levels. Next TGT will be 4400-4410 levels, Major support. Possibility of bounce from 4400 levels, below 4375 levels, next Target will be 4330-4340. Any bounce should be used to exit longs. On upside, NIFTY SPOT will face Resistance 4620-30,Major Resistance 4670-80 , 4720-30 levels.
NIFTY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKNESS, BOOK PROFIT AT EVERY RISE IN HEAVYWEIGHT STOCKS.NEXT WEEK WE CAN SEE STOCK SPECIFIC MOVES.NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4440-4370-4241.STOCK TO WATCH OUT FOR IS IDFC LTD.
Crude Oil on Weekly Chart in making "Higher Tops & Higher Bottom Pattern". Also at the bottom you can find the Crude oil made "Double Bottom Reversal Pattern"and was followed by a "Consolidation Flag Pattern" breakout. All this indicating that the crude is likely to continue its up move. The commodity is recommended to Cmp 3431 & add in dips.Supports
- Support 1 : 3297
- Support 2 : 3115
- Support 3 : 2958
Resistance
- Resistance 1 : 3972
- Resisatnce 2 : 4532
- Resistance 3 : 5223
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