Sensex Technical View :
Nifty Fut
R-4396/4467/4595.
S-4269/4198/4071.
Nifty Spot
R-4402/4472/4587.
S-4287/4217/4102.
Sensex
R-14655/14864/15204.
S-14315/14106/13766.
The index has now lost 1000 points from the high and has just hit below 14500 support levels which opens up more downside possibilities. A dead bounce ( good possibility ) should not go much above 14800-14950 for now. A move above 15300 would now negate bearish implications.
The momentum line which we have been looking at every since 8k-9k levels now comes to 13900 for the week. Gap support at 13500. So it would be a healthy move if index tests this zones in weeks to come.
The view to generate cash was mentioned clearly alongwith a detailed technical and strategy ( reduce volumes, volatility would increase, shift to defensives ) .
Hope readers have benefitted by following the discipline. Continue to conserve the profits accumulated in last 3 mths.
Stocks to watchout for :
Cadilla seems to be trying to breakout. Investors can look to take small exposures at current levels. Great Offshore hold. Insecticidies india investment pick.
RIL has broken down as expected and shud now find support arnd 1975/1850 in short term.
Castrol looks an excellent breakout on weekly charts. Buy on dips. chart posted below. Also Nagarjuna and RCAP chart and view posted. CLICK HERE
RCOM below 300 and RCAP below 895 could see more selling pressure and lose 5-7% quickly. Quick traders can keep a watch.
Nifty :: And Wolfe Wave strike again at top. Almost achieve target. As we say all word market made short term top formation in chart.. In log scale chart Sensex break long term support trend line and close below it. Intraday chart already made lower top lower bottom formation..Still awaiting for this formation in daily chart for mid term correction.. May be we see bounce beck from lower level and that’s why avoid short at lower level.. In one level above 4330 momentum up , below 4330 momentum down.. Watch first strong support 4322/4300.. Still our strategy same as yesterday Sell at high (S.L 4500) Buy on deep (S.L 4296) .. Resistance for up move at 4382/4480/4500/4560.. Supports at 4322/4300/4260/4155..
The Indian market opened on gap-down but saw selling pressure at final hours session and close in deep red zone .As we had mention about rising wedge and we had close below trendline but on daily chart we are near support zone .If we see some pullback on upside nifty can test 4450-4473 levels over all trend is down and trading below 4370 levels we can test 4189-4079 zones
Yesterday market open gapdown andalso recover sometime, But Second off market heavy fall moreover Nifty 150 points and Nifty will close 4350 levels. This is the good support level for Nifty. Today we expect nifty will open huge down and market will bounce back this levels. Nifty will bull this level for 4350,4380,4420,4440,4480 and 4520 levels. suposse the nifty will cross 4320 level again market will come downside upto 4220 levels. The inbetween levels for 4320,4280,4250 and 4220 levels.
Nifty Fut
R-4396/4467/4595.
S-4269/4198/4071.
Nifty Spot
R-4402/4472/4587.
S-4287/4217/4102.
Sensex
R-14655/14864/15204.
S-14315/14106/13766.
Yesterday our nifty buy call first target only achived. But Sell call all target achived 4325. Today Nifty buy abv 4400 SL 4370 tgt 4420,4440,4460,4480 and 4520 levels. Nifty Sell below 4370 SL 4400 tgt 4350,4340,4320,4280,4260 and 4220 levels.
As you can see from the various possibilities, it is likely to be choppy and it is not clear to me at this moment in which direction it is headed..Trade light and use intra TA to do small trades.
We have broken last months close, last weeks low..they are resistances 4448, 4380. Today's pivot is @ 4402. A likely range..4310-4410..!! Wild guess.
Once the bounce is on, allow it to go on for about 2 days to initiate shorts again for the lowest "settlement day" close.
We have broken last months close, last weeks low..they are resistances 4448, 4380. Today's pivot is @ 4402. A likely range..4310-4410..!! Wild guess.
Once the bounce is on, allow it to go on for about 2 days to initiate shorts again for the lowest "settlement day" close.
market has corrected as per expectation.today we have broken 14526 on intraday basis and we have closed at 14523, very close to it.today's low was 14447 well below 14526. technically trend is reversed bcz we have seen lower bottom than 14526 which can take us for bigger correction ranging from 13700 to 12500 zone.
as per vivek patil's last weekly analysis there is a chance of very fast correction. irepduce from his report.:
The assumed wave-structure for the rally (i.e. inside "B" leg),
has been shown on the Daily as well as 30-minute charts. The structure
post election-results shows a bearish Diagonal Triangle (also called a
Terminal) shape so far. Daily chart shows a bigger one, while 30-
minute chart shows it for the "c" leg only.
has been shown on the Daily as well as 30-minute charts. The structure
post election-results shows a bearish Diagonal Triangle (also called a
Terminal) shape so far. Daily chart shows a bigger one, while 30-
minute chart shows it for the "c" leg only.
That shape is created due to reducing magnitude and slow speed
of subsequent rallies. Indeed, the "c" leg has taken 161.8% time
compared to the time taken by "a" and "b" put together. (13 days
against 3+5=8, all of them being Fibonacci numbers). Price-wise, "c"
has so far achieved only 61.8% of "a".
of subsequent rallies. Indeed, the "c" leg has taken 161.8% time
compared to the time taken by "a" and "b" put together. (13 days
against 3+5=8, all of them being Fibonacci numbers). Price-wise, "c"
has so far achieved only 61.8% of "a".
Within the "c" leg, one can see a probable 1st Extension
Terminal as marked on the 30-minute chart. Inside this, 3rd was
exactly 61.8% of 1st. The Sensex may have completed 4th and 5th of the
Terminal already at last Friday's high near our target level of 15580,
OR is completing its 4th, as marked.
Terminal as marked on the 30-minute chart. Inside this, 3rd was
exactly 61.8% of 1st. The Sensex may have completed 4th and 5th of the
Terminal already at last Friday's high near our target level of 15580,
OR is completing its 4th, as marked.
Confirmation would require a drop below last week's low of 14526
in faster time.
in faster time.
While we watch for completion of Terminal and its confirmation,
the implication of this pattern could be a fall below 13519 within 50%
time consumed by "c" (50% of 13 = 7).
the implication of this pattern could be a fall below 13519 within 50%
time consumed by "c" (50% of 13 = 7).
Remember, this bearish possibility is only a suspicion at this
juncture.
juncture.
My current assumption of Extracting Triangle would be bearish,
but avoid fall below 13519 in 50% time. "d" of Extracting is usually a
slower and complex affair though it should become bigger than 1412
points (magnitude of "b") to confirm the extraction.
but avoid fall below 13519 in 50% time. "d" of Extracting is usually a
slower and complex affair though it should become bigger than 1412
points (magnitude of "b") to confirm the extraction.
Bullish options can remain open only if the Sensex avoids
closing below 14526. That could convert the current configuration into
another Diametric as marked on the Daily Chart above.
closing below 14526. That could convert the current configuration into
another Diametric as marked on the Daily Chart above.
While the market is deciding its next move at this crucial
juncture near 15580, based on the probabilities discussed, Investors
need to take a call not forgetting these bearish options discussed.
The only positive hope would be provided by a sustainable move above
15580.
I had thought the fall would be slow and sideways with a downward bias, but the ferocity of the fall was surprising. The momentum indicators on daily charts have broken the support which was holding since 30th March. This indicates the fall will continue. The wedge target is 3930.
The half hourly oscillators are in oversold territoty and we can expect a bounce before we continue the fall.
My rules for trading are, I take trades only in the direction of the weekly. I was asked whether to go short and I opined that I would not be comfortable going short. Now, if one wants to go short then they can be based on their rules. I am happy with cutting my longs at the precise time, which gave me good profits. I would not like to go with every move that the market makes and go short. This helps me keep my sanity and blood pressure under control. Also my profits from longs are intact.
Nifty Futures tried hard to get back to 4500+ but collapsed after breaking down the day's low and then went down below 4385 the recent low. Reliance broke below 2091 Spot and is now in the gap area shown in a previous post. Because of the quick fall today, a pullback is almost certain tomorrow and must be used to go short again.
juncture near 15580, based on the probabilities discussed, Investors
need to take a call not forgetting these bearish options discussed.
The only positive hope would be provided by a sustainable move above
15580.
Nifty half Hourly Chart
Nifty Daily Momentum Chart
Nifty Daily Chart
Nifty Daily ChartI had thought the fall would be slow and sideways with a downward bias, but the ferocity of the fall was surprising. The momentum indicators on daily charts have broken the support which was holding since 30th March. This indicates the fall will continue. The wedge target is 3930.
The half hourly oscillators are in oversold territoty and we can expect a bounce before we continue the fall.
My rules for trading are, I take trades only in the direction of the weekly. I was asked whether to go short and I opined that I would not be comfortable going short. Now, if one wants to go short then they can be based on their rules. I am happy with cutting my longs at the precise time, which gave me good profits. I would not like to go with every move that the market makes and go short. This helps me keep my sanity and blood pressure under control. Also my profits from longs are intact.
Nifty Futures tried hard to get back to 4500+ but collapsed after breaking down the day's low and then went down below 4385 the recent low. Reliance broke below 2091 Spot and is now in the gap area shown in a previous post. Because of the quick fall today, a pullback is almost certain tomorrow and must be used to go short again.On the 5 minutes chart we saw a head and shoulders formation (thanks to a friend who pointed it to me while it was in the process of making - I saw it very late as I was looking at today's price action and the pattern is visible if we see yesterdays price alongwith today's!). Anyway, you win some, you lose some!
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