|
Nifty :: An Spinning top candle pattern in Nifty chart, before our strong resistance and target 4480 (Sensex 15000/ 15125).. Bulls ménage to hold mid term trend line.. As far as before budget close above 4311 momentum seems side way up.. Be careful at higher level, avoid buying at high give long commitment only when Nifty close above 4480 (Sensex 15125).. Our strategy for 30th Jun buy on deep (S.L 4311) Sell at high (S.L 4496 ).. Resistance for up move at 4440/4458/4480/4496.. Supports at 4352/4338/4311/4243/ 4156…
The Indian market opened on flat note and saw upward journey in afternoon session and close in flat zone .Nifty seen profit booking at higher level and saw all the gain vanished at the end of session . For coming session trading below 4368 zones it will test 4342-4300 zone .On the other side 4480-4513 zone will act as strong resistances zone .
Last day of the month and it is one thing to be confused and it is another to be sitting on confusion. Let me clarify what I mean. I mean that we have 3 EMA and 15 EMA exactly the same – 4354. Now this can mean two things – if the EMA crosses over then we go long and if it does not then we are supposed to add to the shorts already held with us. So seeing the things as they are – we will just wait for the other indications to give us direction or we will just wait for some more clarity to emerge. Yesterday the market’s high was where it was exactly projected to be – the middle of Bollinger bands. That figure was 4446 and the market high yesterday was 4440 – just six points short of it before it gave away most of its gains and ended at 4390. could this be the top of the second shoulder that I discussed yesterday? well it may be though I am sceptical. I do feel that a little bit more is what is there in store for us before we form the shoulder and decide on the direction. 
As far as the global cues are concerned there is fair amount of good news flowing in – I am talking in terms of the market performance – except Asia – everyone was green. FTSE was up 1.25%, DAX up 2.27% and CAC up 2.04%. US opened flat – dipped down red and then went up to remain green and close at those levels only. DOW was up 1.08%, Nasdaq was up 0.32% and S&P was up 0.91%. Mind you all this was in a lack of market cues for US and Oil shot up by 3.4% to 71.49%. Ofcourse if it all green then we have to have a matching Asia opening and Nikkei has opened green – and is now at 1.98% up and Strait Times too is 1.56% in green.
Coming to the charts – like I said we have a situation where the 3 EMA and 15 EMA are same so I will wait for a crossover and chances are of a positive crossover. The volumes were a bit better than yesterday with 82% of the last 50 day average. ADX has turned bullish but the strength is less – very near to 20 – the signs of confusion here too. MACD remains defiantly bearish. RSI is bullish. And so is Slow Stochastic. TRIX – one of my favourite forward looking indicator is looking down unfortunately as of now.
The Pivot data goes on like this ---
R3 4528 against 4523
R2 4482
R1 4436
Pivot 4393 against 4333
S1 4347
S2 4304
S3 4258
Projected High Range 4414 to 4459
Projected Low Range 4419 to 4374
Fib Projected High 4463
Fib Projected Low 4325
To prepare for the elections a large majority is with straddles and strangle in options. I feel otherwise – in toto for a straddle in nifty we are paying almost 400 points – we may not have such a swing and may not get the kind of gains we expect from the markets – so I am where I was – on the sidelines for more clarity. Best of luck to all of you for today’s trading.
R-4394/4437/4483.
S-4348/4305/4259.
Nifty Fut
R-4394/4442/4495.
S-4341/4293/4240.
Sensex
R-14809/14933/15080.
S-14662/14538/14391.
Alternatively as per Hourly counts, if it has more strength, it will be doing "(iii)rd" of the "iii", moving up steadily. have your pick.
NU-TEK INDIA LTD. CODE: 533015
CMP : 50.25
FACE VALUR : 10
BOOK VALUE : 92.17
52-Week High 225
52-Week Low 23.85
Eps : 9.42
PE : 5.29
The company is engaged in telecom solution business it undertakes and executes turnkey projects, like implementation of solutions, operation maintenance and resources. It carries out all civil and electrical work. company gets its business mainly from service providers and equipment manufacturers like NOKIA, MOTORALA etc. companys topline shooted tremendously in past 3 to 4 years span, its bottomline also increasing significantly. Further, there is going to be a great demand in coming years in towering business as its expected that number of towers in country will be just doubled by 2010
stock is trading right now at multiplier of 5.29 approx which makes agood investment bet with a target price of 100 plus in for medium .
Half hourly Chart
- Doji candle formation depicting indecision.
- 5 dema continues to be bearishly aligned to 10 & 20 dema.
- Oscillators in neutral zone.
- Uptrendline intact.
- Oscillators were oversold and the nifty seems to be correcting this state.
- Solid support at 4333-4343-4347 area from the 50-100-200 period ema's. However the three ema's are bearishly aligned.
- The shorter term moving averages are once again bullishly aligned.
- Uptrendline intact.
A Doji has been formed on daily charts .The doji has closed towards the lower range and the upper shadow is longer than the lower shadow. This shows selling pressure. Volumes were more than that on Friday. Advance Decline figures improved over Friday's figure.
The uptrend started on Friday has not shown strength enough for us to consider an upgrade in our view from being moderately bullish.
NIFTY VIEW :- SUP 3990-4022-4089-4145-4201-4242 RESI 4307-4343-4401-4444-4525-4601 RIL IND VIEW :- SUP 1771-1844-1901-1957- 1999 - 2121 RESI 2222 - 2346 - 2401-2444-2500 ....... !!!! TATACOMM RADY FOR BIG MOVE MOVE MOVE ONE WAY MOVE 400 TO 500 RS JUMP HEADING TOWORDS 1000 ........ !!! DONT MISS NAVNEET PUBLICATION , IDBI , TATACOOM , U WILL SEE FIRE WORKS IN THIS STOCKS BOTH BROTHER MEANS AMBANI ... BOTH ARE ONE THEY NEVER DIFFERENT U WILL SEE BOTH WILL COME TOGETHER ON MEDIA VERY SOON , AND U ALL WILL SEE ADAG AND RGROUP WILL BLAST IN SHARE MKT , WHY THEY SHOWN DIFFERNT FROM LAST 3 YEARS ALL IS GAME PLANE....??? cipla RADY FOR 300 ANY TIME ...!!!!! IDBI BIG MOVE ON CARD BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY IN DEL DONT MISS VERY SOON 127++++++ AND DEL TGT MIN MUM 155++++ ...... MKT GOING FOR CONSOLIDITION MAJOR SUP 13890 - 13630 - 12888 BUT BULLS ARE ACTIVE STILL DONOT THINK ANY DIFFRENT ......!!! RCAP RADY TO MOVE 1100/1220/1331 .......... IFCI RADY TO CROSS 62/65 ....!!!!!! RCAP IS HOT HOT HOT DONT MISS
On Friday 26/6/2009 BSE Sensex closed up at 14764 . The next week on 6th July 2009 financial budget will be presented by New UPA government. Since 1991 liberalisation, of 18 union budgets presented most of the times stock market has tanked. Only 4 times stock markets have gained after Union budget.
BSE Sensex Daily Chart Till 29/6/2009
As seen above in the Daily Chart of BSE Sensex, it has broken down from ascending channel. BSE Sensex may re-attempt on up-side to gain old high of 15700 and in process try to break within the the ascending channel or touch the bottom of the ascending channel. On the other hand on the down side BSE Sensex may take support just above the gap-up created after election results. As long as BSE sensex is above 14500, bulls can be comfortable. For BSE Sensex, the zone of 15400-15600 is a stiff resistance zone . And on the down side 13500-13700 is a very strong support level.
Structure Of Sensex
Since low of 7700 in daily chart the structure was sideways. Since a big Gap-up opening after the election results. BSE Sensex has indicated a bullish structure of Higher top & Higher bottom. This bullish structure can allow the bulls to make merry as long as this bullish structure is intact. The Union financial Budget in the Parliament may again give way to new move or direction to the market. And 15500-15700 is a very important daily pivotal point and an old support and resistance zone.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
The Daily chart the KST momentum indicator has given bearish cross-over and started going down, which indicates a loss of upward momentum. The KST Indicator in itself turning upward /downward is also considered as significant as cross-over. But as long as KST Oscillator is in overbought zone, bulls had upper hand.
Note: "The KST was in overbought zone in the trending market of 2005-2007. But in the daily BSE Sensex chart shows that since fall in January 2008, the KST indicator broke the zero line from the upside and migrated to south - oversold zone. Since January 2008 KST Indicator has been in oversold zone. At every rally in the BSE Sensex KST indicator briefly touches the zero line or equilibrium line, but again fall back to form new trough in the oversold zone. This phenomen is indicated in the Daily Sensex Chart with down arrows, in earlier BSE Sensex Posts."
Volume
Volume has been an important indicator to gauge this strong rally which started from March 2009. Volumes are gaining on the up move thus strongly indicating good buying in the equity market. Volume is one of the informant cog or puzzle chip in over all technical picture.
The volumes from November 2008 to January 2009 looked like accumulation . This volume accumulation gave rise to a rally, as seen from late March 2009. The April 2009 the rally has been on a rising volume which was good indicator that this rally is a powerful one. May 2009 also recorded higher volume than April 2009. June 2009 volume so far has been is a rising one.
Trendline
BSE Sensex has broken out of the ascending channel. This week BSE Sensex on uptrend may attempt to re-enter the ascending channel. So the ascending channel will be a stiff resistance zone for BSE Sensex on the upside. The 15500 is also very old resistance zone.
For those who joined late-"Since high of 21206, in January 2008, a clear descending channel is seen in the above daily chart of the Sensex. BSE Sensex attempted breaking out on upside on 4 occasion's, dated -16/05/2008, 12/08/2008, 05/09/2008, 12/02/2009. But on 16/03/2009 BSE Sensex did successfully crossover the descending channel on the upside."
For more reference one may visit old BSE Sensex posts.
Sensex Key Support Level-- ---- 14400, 14588, 14678
Sensex Key Resistance Level---- 14929, 15125, 15259
BSE Sensex Weekly Chart Till 29/06/2009
If weekly uptrend line 4 has been broken conclusively by BSE Sensex. Then BSE Sensex on a pull back attempt may try to regain old highs. The current weekly candle is bullish hanging man. This current Weekly candle has to an extent negated the evening star candle pattern,s bearish implications. BSE Sensex is very close to weekly resistance zone of 15300-15500.
This is a prior week of Union Financial budget to be presented on 6th July 2009. So on the hope of positive union budget, BSE Sensex may make an attempt to regain the old highs of 15500-15700 this week.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator For Weekly Chart.
The weekly KST Indicator is rising and in overbought zone thus pointing at the intermediate trend of BSE Sensex which is positive or bullish. No loss of upward momentum so far seen in the Weekly KST Indicator.
BSE Sensex Monthly Chart Till 29/06/2009
March 2009 was a bullish candle, thus forming Bullish Engulfing Pattern on monthly BSE Sensex Chart. The candle of April 2009 is bullish belt hold line candle pattern. May 2009 candle is also big bullish candle. June 2009 candle is forming & real call can be taken when June 2009 month ends.
As has been indicated may times in all old BSE Sensex posts, that bull market or bull trend in BSE Sensex cannot said to be over for long term till monthly uptrend line 2 drawn from low of the year 1981 gets broken. And so far this monthly uptrend line does not appear to have broken. So long term BSE Sensex is still bullish.
No comments:
Post a Comment