TECH_SPEAK: NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

There is a lot of technical speculation amongst market-men and analysts.

-- > Some are speculating a possible head and shoulders in the making. But a HnS pattern is a reactive pattern which doesnt come into picture till the neckline is not broken. Otherwise every other pattern may seem a HnS ! As of now one needs to wait for a clean breakdown below 14k levels shown by the red line on closing basis.

-- > Such a breakdown below the red line would point to a possible gap filling also.Supports are placed at 13500/12300.

-- > The other possibility is the index holds above 14k and moves back creating a high abov 15600 which could be closer to 16050-16200 also.

-- > Any upmove beyond 16200 on closing basis would mean a highly euphoric move ! ... Ideally a move to 16k should be used to again generate cash.

Conclusions :

-- > The view was to deploy some cash at 14k-14.3k which has given small returns but keep a strict stoploss of 13800-14k. If stays below get back to cash again.

-- > Any move to 16050-16200 would be more stock specific and investors should also look profits if such a scenario opens up.

-- > As of now stopped out on short term trades so wait and watch for now ! Volatility will be high as external voices may impact more.

Stocks to watchout for :

The unexpected dip today has hit quite a few stoplosses in the near term. BOB ,Welspun stop hit after a move in morning which did not get follow up buying. Strides, Patni prefer to exit and just watch for now.

Dabur,Nestle defensive pick moving sharply as expected. Keeping a stable portfolio helps:)

No stock calls for now as volatility may hit on but just a few technical levels on specific stocks.

DLF

Stock is seeing support around 300-305 range in the last few weeks. closing below those levels could lead to selling pressure taking it to 270-285 also.

Shriram Transport

Generally an illiquid counter has seen good volume built up. Sustained move above 315 needed to trigger further upmove to 350+.

Suzlon

Support around 95-99 zone which should hold up for now. Risky traders can buy in that range with 3 % stop tgt 10%

Tata Steel

Short term range of 380-415. Any move below 378 could lead to 360 similarly above 415 could tgt 440.

Do your own research and take exposures with a strict stoploss as volatility is got to increase in coming days. Reduce trading volumes !

MY CHART

Nifty :: Exactly move as we draw blue arrow in our 26^th post. After Spinning top Nifty made an Engulfing bear candle pattern.. !!.. Its mean once again may be we see bounce beck for bottom.. Be careful at lower level near H&S breakdown level.. May be bulls try to hold this support before budget, and we see side way momentum for 2-3 day’s.. Now hold short only when Nifty close below last pivotal low and H&S breakdown level 4143 (Sensex H&S breakdown level 14166 & Pivotal low 14016)..Till then enjoy before budget volatility .. Our strategy for 1^st July up to 4158, Buy on deep (S.L 4143) Sell at high (S.L 4393)… Resistance for up move at 4320/4334/3477/ 4393.. Supports at 4218/4158/4143/4092/4080..

(S S Cheema)

Are our Pre-Budget jitters shaking the world markets? Ofcourse not – but good to think that we can twist the tail of the world – Ha! So the confusion remains galore as the budget comes closer! The Bull/Bear tango of the markets also is also taunting everyone’s nerves. In any case we are walking on a thin line and can fall and take any side. Yesterday the red and green signals were confusing to say the least – but today there is a definite shift to the red. There are a lot of people propagating a range bound markets for some time 4100 to 4600 to be precise and that might turn out to be the case till the budget sets the direction. Infact one can see the Options data to get an idea – Put/Call ratio is exactly the same this month.

I will not waste any more time and get on – starting with the global Cues. Europe was good all the way till the closing when it got negative cues from the US and went Thunk@#. FTSE closed at 1.04% down, DAX down 1.56% and CAC down 1.67%. US that opened flat – tried a bit to go green fell face down in red – trying a wee bit to recover around close and successful just to move a little above the lows. DOW closed 0.97% in red, Nasdaq down 0.49% and S&P 0.85% red. Asia today seems to have taken the cues from US and Nikkei opened down and is absolutely flat now at down 0.01%, Strait Times at 0.44% in red. All this has been perhaps due to so called disappointing consumer confidence and expectation readings.

The charts say – like I mentioned earlier – the candle is sitting on the 3/15/20 EMA – all have converged and are in a position to break out either side. Bollinger bands too have narrowed considerably and are waiting for some directional move. The volumes are 84% the last 50 day moving average, and ADX – all three lines – the ADX, –DI, and the +DI lines are plus minus at 21/22 – I can not read anything into it except confused and range bound market. MACD is bearish and once again given a signal – increasing divergence. RSI too is at 50 – a clear crossover would have been bearish as the line is coming from above – but to have stopped at 50 – GOD knows. TRIX is still looking down only. and Slow Stochastic too have both the %K and %D lines converged.

All in all the signals are all waiting for direction with a little more power of the bears than bulls. However it can change with one day worth of run up – so brace up.

The Pivot data is as under…

R3 4585 against 4528
R2 4487
R1 4389
Pivot 4328 against 4393
S1 4230
S2 4169
S3 4071 against 4258
Projected High Range 4358 to 4438
Projected Low Range 4414 to 4334
Fib Projected High 4469
Fib Projected Low 4223

Yesterday our expectation succeed the market open gap up for 20 - 30 points. But suddenly the market will come downside upto to 4290 level this the closing level also. Today also we expect huge gapup for 20 to 30 points. The nifty will cross 4320 level the market will go positive for 4340,4360,4380 to 4420 levels. The nifty 4250 to 4280 level for good support level in market's . The nifty will cross the Resistance for 4320 level cross and trade this level good uptrend continued in market's. But the nifty will break 4280 to 4250 level again the nifty will come downside upto 4220 to 4120 levels.Andalso market will heavy volatile it the reasn for july 6th general budget.

Nifty Spot

R-4328/4390/4488.
S-4230/4168/4070.

Nifty Fut

R-4330/4400/4509.
S-4221/4151/4042.

Sensex

R-14607/14794/15094.
S-14307/14120/13820.

Yesterday our buy call not active . But Sell call all target achived. Today Nifty Buy abv 4330 SL 4280 tgt 4350,4370,4390,4420 to 4520 levels. Nifty Sell below 4280 SL 4330 tgt 4270,4250,4240,4220 to 4120 levels.

(Ilango)

Nifty broke the channel once again. For conservatives, the redrawn channel comes @ 4270 for tomorrow. A potent H&S pattern at the top has formed with "OB" readings in both weekly & daily...a break below 4220 will confirm it.

Hourly high ema had given a sell since yesterday. At 11.00 AM, both hourly ema and hourly low ema reinforced that sell and stayed that way. At EOD, daily momentum weakened below Day's high ema(4399) and sell confirmed below 5 day ema @ 4322. Market also stopped just below 5 day low ema @ 4272.

Expected a pullback to 4350-4335 but showed weakness & broke the channel. Macd looks poised to move into negative zone..

The most obvious count worked very well with "ORB" breakdown @ 4404 @10.15 AM.

"OS" 5 minute TA might induce a bounce which is likely to get resistances @ 4310 - 4345 area.

An Alternative scenario: If 4220 level holds, & if Nifty moves past 4345, it may rally to 4390..

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The doji has closed towards the lower range and the upper shadow is longer than the lower shadow. This shows selling pressure. Yesterday's Doji had given us enough reason to be careful on longs. Since there were more reasons to be moderately bullish, I preferred to continue with longs. However, intraday I did caution longs in my post on my discussion forum at http://www.vipreetsafetrading.com/forum.

Daily Charts

Oscillators showing weakness. Stochastics once again in sell mode before reaching oversold zone which is bearish.RSI14 below 50 mark once again.
Uptrendline form 2539 broken for the fourth time .If fails to move above it once again, will be bearish.
5 dema continues to be bearishly aligned .

View : Neutral

Intra Day Chart

Price is below short and long term emas. All the emas are bearishly aligned, except the 20ema which is bearishly aligned only with the 200 ema.
All oscillators are weak but only stochastics has reached oversold zone and given a buy.
Uptrendline broken.

View : Bearish

The selling was on higher volumes which is scary. Advance Declines was also highly skewed towards the declines. The right shoulder of the probable Head & Shoulder pattern is forming and one must be properly hedged on positional as well as speculative trades. Keep in mind that the head and shoulder targets will come into fore only when the neckline breaks. Till then be careful on shorts.

The very short term as depicted by intraday charts has turned bearish while the daily charts are neutral. I am now neutral on the market. Would therefore lighten my longs and keep a strict stop on the remaining.

SVShah)

Daily Market Outlook: 01 July 2009

It was a difficult day for the market that struggled and closed weak despite positive global cues and ended weak. Investors booked profits ahead of next Monday’s Union budget. Market breadth on BSE remained negative with 1829 declines against 769 advances. Nifty ended at 4300.85, down 90.10 points or 2.05 per cent. Sensex closed at 14524.22, down 261.52 points or 1.77 per cent. All BSE indices were in the red. However, the Sensex posted its highest quarterly gain in 17 years on signs of an economic recovery on last day of June quarter. Top Nifty gainers included Hero Honda, TCS and BPCL while losers were Suzlon, DLF and Tata Motors.

NIFTY (4291.1)

Resistance : 4355 / 4390 / 4440

Support : 4240 / 4210 / 4170

SENSEX (14494)

Resistance : 14795 / 14925 / 15095

Support : 14305 / 14200 / 14120

NIFTY FUT (4290) : NIFTY Close Below 4230 ( 39 Day Moving Average), Is Very Weak Sign & Opens Gap For 4040 / 3930

Resistance : 4400 / 4460 / 4510

Support : 4270 / 4245 / 4220 / 4180 / ४१५०

On Wednesday,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Short Below 4305,Sl Below 4325,Tgt 4270/45/20/4180

Sustain Above 4325,Buy with Sl Below 4305,Tgt 4355/75/90/4425

Close All SHORTS At 4220,Since MININIFTY Made An Incorrect Low Of 4220 On 30/06/2009

Huge Risk Traders : Buy NIFTY@ 4220,Sl 4180,Tgt 4280/4325/4355/4390/4440 (Positional)

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 3.15% with 32% increasing volumes indicating not only unwinding of long position plus forming of shorts too.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

BUY

GAIL Above 290,Sl 290

GTOFFSHORE Above 430,Sl 420,Tgt 435/40/45

NAGARCOSNT Above 125,Sl 120,Tgt 130/40/45

BIRLACORP Above 205,Sl 200,Tgt 210/15/20

MARUTI Above 1070,Sl 1060,Tgt 1085/95/1110+

VSNL Above 475,Sl 470,Tgt 485/95/500

SELL

SBIN (1745),Sl Abv 1760,Tgt 1730/20

BHEL Below 2205,Sl 2225,Tgt 2165/25/05+

GAIL Below 290,Sl 295,Tgt 280/75/70

HDFCBNK Below 1490,Sl 1510,Tgt 1475/50/25/05+

(ss)

In spite of the galloping horses shown in the last post, many stocks are showing a topping head and shoulders pattern. The right shoulder is in the making (!) If the blue line above breaks down then we don't have to wait for the budget - the fall which everybody is expecting will be sooner. Scalp it like new, eh?