Ohh yess ...................HNS waala aadmi mar gaya ... The obituary will be posted on crossover above 15100.
Before i start my view a simple thumb rule says a big move in markets dont come with an Invitation !! If u feel so then be ready for an obituary soon.
Sensex Technical View :
The HNS pattern has last string of hope at 15100 though it was never completed as i have said below a confirmation comes only after a re-test and then drop. Havent got enough time for a new chart but just posting a chart above.
If u see the blue lines is what we were looking at for how index reacts from ! So we are right there and now we will watch the index but look for stock specific moves ( nice client trades last week ).
Now i do expect many analysts to turn towards the BULLISH flag as shown on the chart above through blue Lines... Well yet again got to wait for confirmation out of it and a sustaining move with larger volumes or else index may do nuthin around 15k but stocks WOULD ....
So simply put focus on stock specific .
Stocks to watchout for :
Bharat Electric a classical flag seen here. Watch for 1450-1465 levels for a breakout.
Infosys seems to have broken out above 1850 and can head to 2k also technically if continues to sstay above 1830.
Crompton Greaves, Jp Associates, Punj Lloyd , IDFC . Jindal Steel and Power and many such stocks are near resistance levels and needs to be seen whether they can give a breakout and move away. Charts later in the week.
Trades if any should ideally be on follow up moves in the days to come so not much after a hectic weekend .
BOC India is the largest Industrial gas manufacturer in India and it is a subsidiary of Linde group. It is on massive expansion plan in recent days to capitalise on the demand. Company is ideally positioned to achieve stable and sustainable growth over the next 2-3 years. Its parent BOC is the second largest industrial gas company in the world. BOC India is operating in India since 1935.
The Indian market opened on gap up on strong global cues and close with strong note .For coming session if nifty trade above 4390 it likely to test 4453-4480 zones . On the lower side for long stoploss should shift around 4200-4239 zone from 3985levls.However on the down side if nifty trade below 4331 zones it can test 4301-4272 levels.
BUY RANBAXY ABOVE 266 TGT 279>283>290 STOPLOSS 254
Last week we had mention any major rally correct before next move still we had seen just 33%-3978 level and 38%around 3885 and 50%is 3634 zones as shown in above chart .
BUYAPTECH AROUNND 155-159 TGT167>170STOPLOSS154
Last week sensex gains 9.19% and nifty spurt by 9.27% respectively, and recovers almost all the losses of previous week .As moving head there are multiple resistances around 4480-4520 zones nifty bounces sharp from the lower levels and broken the parallel down channel and close above it .we had seen failure in dow Jones HNS pattern and close above long term moving average 200 SMA .For coming session upside level to watch 15049 /4480 zone and we had seen sharp rise of more than 450point in nifty we can see some profit booking at higher levels.If nifty close below 4220 levels it can test 4145-4040 zones .On the upside closing above 4390 it can test 4480-4530 levels.
Hello Friends,
NifTiee Close 4375
Supports : 4343 / 4310 / 4255
Resistances : 4404 / 4444 / 4488
As anticipated last week Nifty Close above 4310 is headed towards 4422 - 4444 levels. At these levels we expect some profit booking here. These are the levels from where the markets retraced by 2 to 3 times. So at this time we expect the same from here, but the impact may be not be as the same as we saw the fall last time upto 3900.
But if the markets manages to close above 4488 then we markets may test previous tops & may go even higher. The crossesponding levels for Sensex can be placed at 15000 - 15100. Close above 4488 - 15100 can bring positive surprises in the markets. Finance Ministry has found out possible candidates for Disinvestments like NMDC, MMTC, Hind Copper ( listes Cos ) & Among unlisted cos are Manganese ore etcc. Also Govt have decided to come up with Ipo of NHPC for raising 2500 Crores only & the same is expected to open in 1st or 2nd week of August.
Also the Ministry will get some funds from Telecom cos from 3G & 4G Auction & the same amount can be around 25k Crores to 40k Crores only. Amongst the expenses the Govt have alloted 1 Lac Crores only for highway developments projects, we must see that how much amount will go for real development despite Corruptions. More & More money has been alloted to road developments projects by the Quality of the projects are not so good. Also an Commitee has been formed by the Govt which will look after all the projects & the funds allocated & also the Quality of the Projects along with future maintence of the roads, this is highly positive step to lift the quality of Work done.
Hi All,
Nifty Weekly charts is showing a cup and handel formation which has a very strong impliceation.
Now for this formation in coming weeks nifty needs to correct to 3900-4000 levels.
Nifty weekly levels to be watched
Weekly Pivot 4228
Nifty will gane momentum once it crosses 4335 and can see 4470 4500 4550 4600 Levels
Support is at 4335-4350 levels once that is taken out 4285 4228 levesl on cards
Stock Specific
RIL buy only above 1969 if not crossed buy 1920 PE
ZEE can see 215-240 in coming weeks support at 174-78 Levels
Jp Associate buy in range 205-217 sl 192 tgt 235-40
Volats symmetrical trinagle breakout can see 140 149 levels sl 125
Weekly Charts of sesa goa shows a broadening channel which above 225 can see a good burst in price OI has increased significantly in Futures
Stock was at 52 Week high last friday.
An important levels to be watched is 225-226 Levels (Double top) If that's is crossed than there is no stopping for this stock till 230-35 and 250 levels. Sl of 206 on all longs initiated.
As discussed in my previous post, Nifty traded higher on Friday all day through and closed high ( 4374) after breaking the pink trend line and completing wave XA. Hence our BUY order target met at 4350 and week ended with a good note. We had also discussed earlier that if nifty breaks the trend line and closes higher, then Head and Shoulder pattern might be void now and we could see market going higher in this quarter. However we must not get into some conclusion before watching Monday market session, because now we could see resistance near 4420/4470 level ( Pink rectangular box). So, for tomorrow watch the market. If nifty opens near Friday close ( 4374) and goes higher till 4420 and then get good selling pressure, it could be a good idea to SELL at 4420 with stop loss at 4450 for target at 4370/50. If you personally don’t feel to SELL, then I would suggest not to do it, rather wait for next day’s opportunity
Half Hourly Chart
Spotted a rising wedge on the upmove from 3918 which is bearish if breaks down.
Sorry for adding to the confusion but my startegy remains the same i,e. Long with stop loss of 4200 or break of the rising wedge decisively.
Half Hourly Chart
Daily Charts
Weekly Chart showing Falling Wedge
Weekly
The market undermined Nifty's capacity since the neck was broken. Nifty was stronger than expected and managed to run up and repair most of the damage.
Is the the neck firm once again ?
Oscillators
I would prefer to be light in my positions and wait for breakout from the top of 4693 or from the falling wedge on weekly charts to get 100% bullish, and look for a break of the neckline once again to be bearish
The Indian market opened on gap up on strong global cues and close with strong note .For coming session if nifty trade above 4390 it likely to test 4453-4480 zones . On the lower side for long stoploss should shift around 4200-4239 zone from 3985levls.However on the down side if nifty trade below 4331 zones it can test 4301-4272 levels.
BUY RANBAXY ABOVE 266 TGT 279>283>290 STOPLOSS 254
Last week we had mention any major rally correct before next move still we had seen just 33%-3978 level and 38%around 3885 and 50%is 3634 zones as shown in above chart .
BUYAPTECH AROUNND 155-159 TGT167>170STOPLOSS154BUY VOLTAS ABOVE 131 TGT 142>145 STOPLOSS127
Last week sensex gains 9.19% and nifty spurt by 9.27% respectively, and recovers almost all the losses of previous week .As moving head there are multiple resistances around 4480-4520 zones nifty bounces sharp from the lower levels and broken the parallel down channel and close above it .we had seen failure in dow Jones HNS pattern and close above long term moving average 200 SMA .For coming session upside level to watch 15049 /4480 zone and we had seen sharp rise of more than 450point in nifty we can see some profit booking at higher levels.If nifty close below 4220 levels it can test 4145-4040 zones .On the upside closing above 4390 it can test 4480-4530 levels.
Hello Friends,
NifTiee Close 4375
Supports : 4343 / 4310 / 4255
Resistances : 4404 / 4444 / 4488
As anticipated last week Nifty Close above 4310 is headed towards 4422 - 4444 levels. At these levels we expect some profit booking here. These are the levels from where the markets retraced by 2 to 3 times. So at this time we expect the same from here, but the impact may be not be as the same as we saw the fall last time upto 3900.
But if the markets manages to close above 4488 then we markets may test previous tops & may go even higher. The crossesponding levels for Sensex can be placed at 15000 - 15100. Close above 4488 - 15100 can bring positive surprises in the markets. Finance Ministry has found out possible candidates for Disinvestments like NMDC, MMTC, Hind Copper ( listes Cos ) & Among unlisted cos are Manganese ore etcc. Also Govt have decided to come up with Ipo of NHPC for raising 2500 Crores only & the same is expected to open in 1st or 2nd week of August.
Also the Ministry will get some funds from Telecom cos from 3G & 4G Auction & the same amount can be around 25k Crores to 40k Crores only. Amongst the expenses the Govt have alloted 1 Lac Crores only for highway developments projects, we must see that how much amount will go for real development despite Corruptions. More & More money has been alloted to road developments projects by the Quality of the projects are not so good. Also an Commitee has been formed by the Govt which will look after all the projects & the funds allocated & also the Quality of the Projects along with future maintence of the roads, this is highly positive step to lift the quality of Work done.
Hi All,Nifty Weekly charts is showing a cup and handel formation which has a very strong impliceation.
Now for this formation in coming weeks nifty needs to correct to 3900-4000 levels.
Nifty weekly levels to be watched
Weekly Pivot 4228
Nifty will gane momentum once it crosses 4335 and can see 4470 4500 4550 4600 Levels
Support is at 4335-4350 levels once that is taken out 4285 4228 levesl on cards
Stock Specific
RIL buy only above 1969 if not crossed buy 1920 PE
ZEE can see 215-240 in coming weeks support at 174-78 Levels
Jp Associate buy in range 205-217 sl 192 tgt 235-40
Volats symmetrical trinagle breakout can see 140 149 levels sl 125
Weekly Charts of sesa goa shows a broadening channel which above 225 can see a good burst in price OI has increased significantly in FuturesStock was at 52 Week high last friday.
An important levels to be watched is 225-226 Levels (Double top) If that's is crossed than there is no stopping for this stock till 230-35 and 250 levels. Sl of 206 on all longs initiated.
As discussed in my previous post, Nifty traded higher on Friday all day through and closed high ( 4374) after breaking the pink trend line and completing wave XA. Hence our BUY order target met at 4350 and week ended with a good note. We had also discussed earlier that if nifty breaks the trend line and closes higher, then Head and Shoulder pattern might be void now and we could see market going higher in this quarter. However we must not get into some conclusion before watching Monday market session, because now we could see resistance near 4420/4470 level ( Pink rectangular box). So, for tomorrow watch the market. If nifty opens near Friday close ( 4374) and goes higher till 4420 and then get good selling pressure, it could be a good idea to SELL at 4420 with stop loss at 4450 for target at 4370/50. If you personally don’t feel to SELL, then I would suggest not to do it, rather wait for next day’s opportunity
Half Hourly ChartSpotted a rising wedge on the upmove from 3918 which is bearish if breaks down.
Sorry for adding to the confusion but my startegy remains the same i,e. Long with stop loss of 4200 or break of the rising wedge decisively.
Half Hourly Chart
Daily Charts
Weekly Chart showing Falling Wedge
WeeklyIs the the neck firm once again ?
Oscillators
- Weekly Oscillators moved down from overbought levels but just that much to show the downmove as a corrective move.
- Daily Oscillators are bullish with the RSI14 and Macd having taken support at levels held since November 2008, and the Macd giving a buy once again. The stochastics has reached overbought levels but going strong.The oscillators have crossed their earlier peaks showing way to the Nifty to do the same.
- Intraday half hourly oscillators have shown mild bearish divergences.
- Weekly Long and Short term moving averages bullishly aligned.
- All moving averages are bullishly aligned excepting the 10 and 20 demas which however are moving up and are also bullishly aligned with the 50 dema.
- Bullish alignment of moving averages on half hourly charts.
- The Nifty has moved decisively above the bearish Head and Shoulder pattern indicating a flase breakout below neckline. Moving above 4693 which is the head, will nullify the bearishness of this pattern.
- Breakout from flag formation on weekly charts indicating fall from 4693 was consolidation.
- Falling wedge formed on weekly charts which is bullish.
- Downward sloping channel breakout on daily charts (I had shown it as a flag formation on weekly charts on the 13th July post).
- Falling wedge on half hourly charts.
- Advance Declines improved considerably all of last week.
- Put Call ratios is at 1.16 indicating market is overly bearish.
- 4402 61.8% retracement of fall till 3918
- 4480 previous top
- 4590 falling wedge target --shown on half hourly chart
- 4693 top of rise from 2539
- 4812 channel target shown on daily charts.
I would prefer to be light in my positions and wait for breakout from the top of 4693 or from the falling wedge on weekly charts to get 100% bullish, and look for a break of the neckline once again to be bearish
NIFTY (4374.95)
Resistance : 4460-80 / 4535 / 4630-40 / 4700
Support : 4330-20 / 4275-60 / 4225 / 4065 / 3755
SENSEX (14744.92)
Resistance : 14915 / 15020 / 15230 / 15350 / 15460 / 15770 / 15835
Support : 14630 / 14410 / 14255 / 14160 / 14035 / 13820 / 12675
NIFTY FUT (4381.5) : Nifty Has Strong Resistance Near 4460-80 & Supports Around 4275-60 & 4225 Zone
Resistance : 4495 / 4555 / 4725
Support : 4325 / 4225 / 4055 / 3735
BANK NIFTY (7233.8)
Resistance : 7540 / 7845
Support : 6950 / 6645 / 6060
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
SECTOR WATCH : POWER (BULLISH)
Last week trade showing long positions build up in power sector related stock futs.
Total OI of PFC FUT up 100.89% prices up 12.23%, PTC FUT up 174.11% prices up 3.96% and RECLTD FUT up 52.74% prices up 16.41% last week.
We expect positive move in coming week.
STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
PATNI FUT (BULLISH)
Total OI of PATNI FUT up 202.53% prices up 15.21% last week. PATNI JULY FUT.Intraday high 291.50, Intraday low 249.00 last week.
We expect positive move in coming week.
WEEKLY NIFTY FUTURE OBSERVATION
Observation:-
1)Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 1.12%, NIFTY FUT closed up 9.71% last week.
2)Out of NIFTY 50 Stock FUTS, 49 Stock FUTS closed positive and 1 Stock FUTs close flat last week.
3)OI of current series NIFTY 4100 CE is down 43.50% prices up 293.23% showing short covering. OI of NIFTY 4200 CE is down 5.30% prices up 359.98%, NIFTY 4300 CE is down 5.33% prices up 457.27% showing aggressive short covering plus buying. OI of NIFTY 4400 CE is up 10.86% prices up 511.18%, NIFTY 4500 CE is down 9.56% prices up 550.29%, NIFTY 4600 CE is down 9.78% prices up 559.41% showing short covering plus buying. OI of NIFTY 4700 CE is 36.97 LK highest OI in CALLS.
4)OI of current series NIFTY 4000 PE is up 61.55% prices down 88.28%, NIFTY 4100 PE is up 57.13% prices down 86.45%, NIFTY 4200 PE is up 67.97% prices down 82.83% and NIFTY 4300 PE is up 62.10% prices down 78.72% showing aggressive put writing last week. OI of NIFTY 4000 PE is 71.14 LK highest OI in PUTs.
5)Total OI of JULY series CALLs is down by 30.12 LK to 2.96 CR, JULY series PUTs is up by 1.30 CR to 4.05 CR. OI of JULY series (single series) PUTs at 4.05 CR is higher than total OI of NIFTY FUT (all series) at 2.39 CR. NIFTY JULY series PCR (OI) at 1.37.
Conclusion :-
VIOLENT TREND REVERSAL last week. Trapping short sellers. I expect up move to continue for 2-3 sessions. NIFTY SPOT Resistance@ 4480-4495, 4535 levels.
Above 4555 levels, Next TGT will be 4630-40 levels.
I expect profit booking between 4570-4630 levels. On down side, NIFTY SPOT Support@ 4320-30, 4280-90 levels. MIDCAPs to outperform next week.
Of rains, hope and despair…
■ Met expects the monsoons to advance…
We join a parched India in praying for rain. The Met does expect widespread rainfall over the west, central and north-east this week. The good news: rains are resuming at last (Table 2). Weekly deficiency has shrunk to 8% by July 8 from July 1’s 29%. Besides, rains are watering the south’s relatively early June sowing.
The bad news: time’s running out. The north need sow by early August (Table 3). Although better than 54% a fortnight ago, 36% seasonal deficiency remains scary. What if rains fail? We expect a 100bp downside risk to our expected 6.3% FY10 growth and ~150bp upside risk to our 6.1% March 10 inflation forecast (Table 4). When would we know? End-July. Do read Jyoti and my monsoon report here.
■ Cropping doubled last week; but still 20% lower y-o-y
Yet, all is still not lost. We are relieved to report that autumn – kharif – cropping doubled last week as the monsoon penetrated the hinterland (Table 5). Rice farming is now up 33% from last year in contrast to last week’s 27% fall. Soya is also staging a recovery. And NCDEX oilseed prices are softening.
■ (-)1.4% deflation on 40bp fuel price hike impact
We expect the 40bp ‘direct’ impact of July 1’s fuel price hike to limit deflation to (-)1.4% Thursday (Tables 6-7). Oil minister Deora has promised to roll back the fuel price hike if oil slips below US$60/bbl. On our part, we expect US$64/bbl Brent this fiscal. This, in turn, should induce neither a fuel price hike/cut from Delhi. We thus expect inflation to climb back by March 10, forcing the RBI to hike CRR/rates by January/April (Chart 1). Do read our oil report here.
■ RBI will issue new borrowing calendar…
Gilts will watch out for the RBI’s new borrowing calendar expected by weekend. On our part, we estimate that the government need borrow Rs3260bn/US$68bn in FY10 (Table 8), net of repayments, MSS maturity/”desequestering” and Rs1200 bn RBI OMO here. Seasonal July liquidity and a large ~375bp 10y – 3.25%RBI rate spread should hold fiscal pressures for now. Do read Ashish and me here.
■ … fx flows swing on earnings: HDFC Bank (Tue), L&T (Thu)
We expect FII inflows to swing to June 09 earnings. Our analysts see BSE Sensex earnings bottoming at 4-5% (ex metals) (Table 9, here). By the way, bouts of INR volatility in no way detract from our long-held twin view of BoP risks overdone/ constructive INR outlook. Do read Christy and me here.
■ 7.6% 2Q09 China growth supports Asia bottoming out
We expect China to grow 7.6% in 2Q09, up from 1Q09’s 6.1%. At home, 2.7% May 09 industrial growth surprised us (1%) and consensus (1.3%) on the up Friday (Tables 10-12).
■ Met expects the monsoons to advance…
We join a parched India in praying for rain. The Met does expect widespread rainfall over the west, central and north-east this week. The good news: rains are resuming at last (Table 2). Weekly deficiency has shrunk to 8% by July 8 from July 1’s 29%. Besides, rains are watering the south’s relatively early June sowing.
The bad news: time’s running out. The north need sow by early August (Table 3). Although better than 54% a fortnight ago, 36% seasonal deficiency remains scary. What if rains fail? We expect a 100bp downside risk to our expected 6.3% FY10 growth and ~150bp upside risk to our 6.1% March 10 inflation forecast (Table 4). When would we know? End-July. Do read Jyoti and my monsoon report here.
■ Cropping doubled last week; but still 20% lower y-o-y
Yet, all is still not lost. We are relieved to report that autumn – kharif – cropping doubled last week as the monsoon penetrated the hinterland (Table 5). Rice farming is now up 33% from last year in contrast to last week’s 27% fall. Soya is also staging a recovery. And NCDEX oilseed prices are softening.
■ (-)1.4% deflation on 40bp fuel price hike impact
We expect the 40bp ‘direct’ impact of July 1’s fuel price hike to limit deflation to (-)1.4% Thursday (Tables 6-7). Oil minister Deora has promised to roll back the fuel price hike if oil slips below US$60/bbl. On our part, we expect US$64/bbl Brent this fiscal. This, in turn, should induce neither a fuel price hike/cut from Delhi. We thus expect inflation to climb back by March 10, forcing the RBI to hike CRR/rates by January/April (Chart 1). Do read our oil report here.
■ RBI will issue new borrowing calendar…
Gilts will watch out for the RBI’s new borrowing calendar expected by weekend. On our part, we estimate that the government need borrow Rs3260bn/US$68bn in FY10 (Table 8), net of repayments, MSS maturity/”desequestering” and Rs1200 bn RBI OMO here. Seasonal July liquidity and a large ~375bp 10y – 3.25%RBI rate spread should hold fiscal pressures for now. Do read Ashish and me here.
■ … fx flows swing on earnings: HDFC Bank (Tue), L&T (Thu)
We expect FII inflows to swing to June 09 earnings. Our analysts see BSE Sensex earnings bottoming at 4-5% (ex metals) (Table 9, here). By the way, bouts of INR volatility in no way detract from our long-held twin view of BoP risks overdone/ constructive INR outlook. Do read Christy and me here.
■ 7.6% 2Q09 China growth supports Asia bottoming out
We expect China to grow 7.6% in 2Q09, up from 1Q09’s 6.1%. At home, 2.7% May 09 industrial growth surprised us (1%) and consensus (1.3%) on the up Friday (Tables 10-12).
BUY BOMBAY DEYING ABOVE 289 SL 285 TGT 305 - 313.
BUY CAIRNS ABOVE 237 SL 231 TGT 245 - 256.
BUY DLF SL 327 TGT 342 - 348.
BUY GMR INFRA ABOVE 141 SL 138 TGT 149 - 153.
BUY HDIL ABOVE 231 SL 225 TGT 241 - 254.
BUY IBRL ABOVE 229 SL 225 TGT 242 - 260.
BUY JP ASSOC ABOVE 219 SL 215 TGT 225 - 235.
BUY RANBAXY ABOVE 266 SL 259 TGT 276 - 280.
BUY REL INFRA SL 1141 TGT 1176 - 1192.
BUY SIEMENS ABOVE 455 SL 450 TGT 472 - 478.
BUY SBI ABOVE SL 1650 TGT 1753 - 1794.
BUY TATA MOTOR ABOVE 322 SL 315 TGT 331 - 336
Since elections-2009 the assessment about stock market have gone hay-wire. Markets at the time of budget, were expected to give a lift up......but instead stock market tanked shocking the longs. After budget the shorts/bears were comfortable having subdued the longs/bulls and now when it seemed that the downfall is most eminent...the tanked market flared up leaving everbody gasping for the entry point. Markets have mind of its own - a known fact. Yet it leaves everybody astounded. In fact Jesse Livermore -a famous operator of yester years is said to have quoted that "Markets are designed to fool most of the people most of the times."
As per the BSE Sensex Highlighted Chart below on Friday 17/07/2009 BSE Sensex closed up at 14744 giving a bullish candle. Ever since BSE Sensex has broken out of ascending channel. BSE Sensex has gone side-ways. In last post it was indicated that "If BSE Sensex fails to hold current support of 13490 then on further correction the post elections gap (12173-13479) may get filled up." A small doji on 13/07/2009 was like a hammer candle, the candle of 14/07/2009 was a bullish candle. The candles of 10/07/2009,13/07/2009 & 14/07/2009 gave rise to a morning star candle pattern- a bullish trend reversal candle pattern.
And then without looking back BSE Sensex marched ahead to shooting star on 16/07/2009 which indicated that a top could be near. The bullish candle of 17/07/2009 on BSE Sensex which closed at 14744 have choked the shorts.
Though BSE Sensex has taken support just above the gap-up created after election results at 13500. This support level will be crucial support for BSE Sensex in longer term. Going forward to complete and nail it,s conquest the bulls will try to take it further to 15400. Unless 15400 is conquered the tussle between the bulls and the bears, may take markets in side-ways range.
BSE Sensex has broken out of the ascending channel. BSE Sensex since last four weeks is hinting at side-ways correction and is between the range of 13500-15400. Thre trendline 11 seen in the chart above is resistance zone along with 15400 area. Also the straight trendline 12 is current daily support zone i.e area of 13500.
For those who joined late-"Since high of 21206, in January 2008, a clear descending channel is seen in the above daily chart of the Sensex. BSE Sensex attempted breaking out on upside on 4 occassions, dated -16/05/2008, 12/08/2008, 05/09/2008, 12/02/2009. But on 16/03/2009 BSE Sensex did successfully crossover the descending channel on the upside." For more reference one may visit old BSE Sensex posts.
BSE Sensex Daily Chart - 20/07/2009
Structure Of Sensex
Since low of 7700 in daily chart the structure was sideways. Since a big Gap-up opening BSE Sensex has indicated a bullish structure of Higher top & Higher bottom structure. So far the structure in BSE Sensex Daily chart is still bullish. The structure to retain its bullishness may try to capture 15400.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
The Daily chart the KST momentum indicator had given bearish cross-over five weeks ago and started going down ,which indicated a loss of upward momentum. The KST Indicator is still in process of finding a base and is still going downward. But as long as KST Oscillator is in the overbought zone, bulls may still have an upper hand. This week the KST indicator has not gone down but rather turned right. This means that loss of downward momentum has been arrested for the time being.
Note: "The KST was in overbought zone most of the time in the trending market of 2005-2007. But in the daily BSE Sensex chart shows that since fall in January 2008, the KST indicator broke the zero line from the upside and migrated to south - oversold zone. Since January 2008 KST Indicator has been in oversold zone. At every rally in the BSE Sensex KST indicator briefly touches the zero line or equilibrium line, but again fall back to form new trough in the oversold zone. This phenomen is indicated in the Daily Sensex Chart with down arrows, in earlier BSE Sensex Posts."
Volume
Volume has been an important indicator to gauge this strong rally.Volumes are going strong indicating good buying in the equity market.Volume is one of the informant cog or puzzle chip in over all technical picture.
The volumes from November 2008 to January 2009 looked like accumulation . This volume accumulation gave rise to a rally, as seen from late March 2009. The April 2009 the rally has been on a rising volume which was good indicator that this rally is a powerful one. May 2009 also recorded higher volume than April 2009. June 2009 volume intially were a rising one but since then have deteirated. July volumes are not rising ...but steady.
Moving Averages
As long as BSE Sensex is above 200 sma bullishness will persist. Currently 13ema, 34ema & 50 sma have congruated and given support to the last bullish daily candle of Friday 17/07/2009.
Sensex Key Support Level-- ---- 14234, 14432, 14578
Sensex Key Resistance Level---- 14941, 15071, 15121
BSE Sensex Weekly Chart - 20/07/2009
The weekly uptrend line 4 has been broken conclusively by BSE Sensex. Last week BSE Sensex could not regain old highs at 14900. The last weeks candle of hanging man & previous weeks evening star candle pattern -bearish trend reversal pattern. Both hanging man and evening star Candle pattern are topping pattern as well as trend reversal pattern. These pattern have made a top currently. For any up move to succeed, this patterns at 14900 must be crossed as it is a crucial weekly resistance area.
But the last week candle of 17/07/2009 is bullish candle. It has penetration of more than 66% of prior weeks bearish candle. Yet for complete bullishness to affirm, even on weekly basis the target is 15400.
Note: Symmetrical triangle detailing will be added as an when required.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator For Weekly chart
Currently in the weekly chart momentum Indicator KST has reached very overbought zone and tappered & turned. And KST indicator is in very overbought zone on weekly basis.
BSE Sensex Monthly Chart - 20/07/2009
The Monthly January 2009 & February 2009 were bearish. March 2009 was a bullish candle, thus forming Bullish Engulfing Pattern on monthly BSE Sensex Chart.The April 2009 is bullish belt hold line candle pattern. May 2009 candle is also big bullish candle. So far "June 2009 candle is bearish star or also called rain drop. Such stars occur either at the bottom or top. The colour of the star is not important." With such a emergence of star after a long white candle stick in an uptrend is the signal of a shift from the buyers being in control to a deadlock between the buying and selling forces."
In the BSE Sensex monthly the current July candle is hanging man..but for complete monthly picture we have wait for July end. On monthly basis BSE Sensex has support at 100sma which is at 8530 & 50 sma is at 12816.
As has been indicated may times in all old BSE Sensex posts, that bull market or bull trend in BSE Sensex cannot said to be over for longterm till monthly uptrend line2 drawn from low from year 1981 gets broken. And so far it does not appear to have broken. Hence it can be fairly concluded that for long term BSE Sensex is still bullish or bull market.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator For Monthly Chart
In the monthly BSE Sensex chart the Momentum Indicators or Oscillators KST is in over sold zone. The KST momentum Oscillators has given proper bullish crossover in monthly BSE Sensex chart. But the actual momentum will come when KST Indicator migrates to overbought zone.
Nifty Weekly Chart:
In the above chart a Piercing line candlestick pattern is marked in price chart. Generally this pattern is considered bullish. Confirmations of this pattern are taken from the length of the candles, Volumes and Gap. Here the length of both bearish bar red candle and bullish green candle are almost same and they are tall which is supporting the pattern. Volumes in the Green bar is lower then the Red bar which is not good, and the the gap down open of the green bar is small one when compared with the height of the bars. On the over all this bullish pattern is not confirming the up move. but based on past bullish movements we had since last few sessions, we may see some retracement from here.
Above is the Nifty futures hourly chart. On the higher side Nifty may take resistance from 4450 - 4480 levels
Nifty Futures 5 min chart:
Due to strong global ques Nifty opened a gap up of 35 points. It started moving up and reached the Double bottom which has formed on 16th July. It gave a convincing break out from the Resistance trend line and 16th July high with good volumes and big spread. Due to the thrust developed by the partial pullback from the resistance line, Nifty moved up but with declining volumes. At 4350 levels there is another resistance from the trend line and the 78.6 % retracement of the down move from 6th July to 13th July, Nifty didn't give a clearcut break out from it but it had a successful retest. After the retest Nifty moved up with good volumes and closed near its highs.
BUY CAIRNS ABOVE 237 SL 231 TGT 245 - 256.
BUY DLF SL 327 TGT 342 - 348.
BUY GMR INFRA ABOVE 141 SL 138 TGT 149 - 153.
BUY HDIL ABOVE 231 SL 225 TGT 241 - 254.
BUY IBRL ABOVE 229 SL 225 TGT 242 - 260.
BUY JP ASSOC ABOVE 219 SL 215 TGT 225 - 235.
BUY RANBAXY ABOVE 266 SL 259 TGT 276 - 280.
BUY REL INFRA SL 1141 TGT 1176 - 1192.
BUY SIEMENS ABOVE 455 SL 450 TGT 472 - 478.
BUY SBI ABOVE SL 1650 TGT 1753 - 1794.
BUY TATA MOTOR ABOVE 322 SL 315 TGT 331 - 336
Since elections-2009 the assessment about stock market have gone hay-wire. Markets at the time of budget, were expected to give a lift up......but instead stock market tanked shocking the longs. After budget the shorts/bears were comfortable having subdued the longs/bulls and now when it seemed that the downfall is most eminent...the tanked market flared up leaving everbody gasping for the entry point. Markets have mind of its own - a known fact. Yet it leaves everybody astounded. In fact Jesse Livermore -a famous operator of yester years is said to have quoted that "Markets are designed to fool most of the people most of the times."
As per the BSE Sensex Highlighted Chart below on Friday 17/07/2009 BSE Sensex closed up at 14744 giving a bullish candle. Ever since BSE Sensex has broken out of ascending channel. BSE Sensex has gone side-ways. In last post it was indicated that "If BSE Sensex fails to hold current support of 13490 then on further correction the post elections gap (12173-13479) may get filled up." A small doji on 13/07/2009 was like a hammer candle, the candle of 14/07/2009 was a bullish candle. The candles of 10/07/2009,13/07/2009 & 14/07/2009 gave rise to a morning star candle pattern- a bullish trend reversal candle pattern.
And then without looking back BSE Sensex marched ahead to shooting star on 16/07/2009 which indicated that a top could be near. The bullish candle of 17/07/2009 on BSE Sensex which closed at 14744 have choked the shorts.
Though BSE Sensex has taken support just above the gap-up created after election results at 13500. This support level will be crucial support for BSE Sensex in longer term. Going forward to complete and nail it,s conquest the bulls will try to take it further to 15400. Unless 15400 is conquered the tussle between the bulls and the bears, may take markets in side-ways range.
BSE Sensex Daily Chart Highlighted- 20/07/2009
BSE Sensex has broken out of the ascending channel. BSE Sensex since last four weeks is hinting at side-ways correction and is between the range of 13500-15400. Thre trendline 11 seen in the chart above is resistance zone along with 15400 area. Also the straight trendline 12 is current daily support zone i.e area of 13500.
For those who joined late-"Since high of 21206, in January 2008, a clear descending channel is seen in the above daily chart of the Sensex. BSE Sensex attempted breaking out on upside on 4 occassions, dated -16/05/2008, 12/08/2008, 05/09/2008, 12/02/2009. But on 16/03/2009 BSE Sensex did successfully crossover the descending channel on the upside." For more reference one may visit old BSE Sensex posts.
BSE Sensex Daily Chart - 20/07/2009
Structure Of Sensex
Since low of 7700 in daily chart the structure was sideways. Since a big Gap-up opening BSE Sensex has indicated a bullish structure of Higher top & Higher bottom structure. So far the structure in BSE Sensex Daily chart is still bullish. The structure to retain its bullishness may try to capture 15400.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator
The Daily chart the KST momentum indicator had given bearish cross-over five weeks ago and started going down ,which indicated a loss of upward momentum. The KST Indicator is still in process of finding a base and is still going downward. But as long as KST Oscillator is in the overbought zone, bulls may still have an upper hand. This week the KST indicator has not gone down but rather turned right. This means that loss of downward momentum has been arrested for the time being.
Note: "The KST was in overbought zone most of the time in the trending market of 2005-2007. But in the daily BSE Sensex chart shows that since fall in January 2008, the KST indicator broke the zero line from the upside and migrated to south - oversold zone. Since January 2008 KST Indicator has been in oversold zone. At every rally in the BSE Sensex KST indicator briefly touches the zero line or equilibrium line, but again fall back to form new trough in the oversold zone. This phenomen is indicated in the Daily Sensex Chart with down arrows, in earlier BSE Sensex Posts."
Volume
Volume has been an important indicator to gauge this strong rally.Volumes are going strong indicating good buying in the equity market.Volume is one of the informant cog or puzzle chip in over all technical picture.
The volumes from November 2008 to January 2009 looked like accumulation . This volume accumulation gave rise to a rally, as seen from late March 2009. The April 2009 the rally has been on a rising volume which was good indicator that this rally is a powerful one. May 2009 also recorded higher volume than April 2009. June 2009 volume intially were a rising one but since then have deteirated. July volumes are not rising ...but steady.
Moving Averages
As long as BSE Sensex is above 200 sma bullishness will persist. Currently 13ema, 34ema & 50 sma have congruated and given support to the last bullish daily candle of Friday 17/07/2009.
Sensex Key Support Level-- ---- 14234, 14432, 14578
Sensex Key Resistance Level---- 14941, 15071, 15121
BSE Sensex Weekly Chart - 20/07/2009
The weekly uptrend line 4 has been broken conclusively by BSE Sensex. Last week BSE Sensex could not regain old highs at 14900. The last weeks candle of hanging man & previous weeks evening star candle pattern -bearish trend reversal pattern. Both hanging man and evening star Candle pattern are topping pattern as well as trend reversal pattern. These pattern have made a top currently. For any up move to succeed, this patterns at 14900 must be crossed as it is a crucial weekly resistance area.
But the last week candle of 17/07/2009 is bullish candle. It has penetration of more than 66% of prior weeks bearish candle. Yet for complete bullishness to affirm, even on weekly basis the target is 15400.
Note: Symmetrical triangle detailing will be added as an when required.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator For Weekly chart
Currently in the weekly chart momentum Indicator KST has reached very overbought zone and tappered & turned. And KST indicator is in very overbought zone on weekly basis.
BSE Sensex Monthly Chart - 20/07/2009
The Monthly January 2009 & February 2009 were bearish. March 2009 was a bullish candle, thus forming Bullish Engulfing Pattern on monthly BSE Sensex Chart.The April 2009 is bullish belt hold line candle pattern. May 2009 candle is also big bullish candle. So far "June 2009 candle is bearish star or also called rain drop. Such stars occur either at the bottom or top. The colour of the star is not important." With such a emergence of star after a long white candle stick in an uptrend is the signal of a shift from the buyers being in control to a deadlock between the buying and selling forces."
In the BSE Sensex monthly the current July candle is hanging man..but for complete monthly picture we have wait for July end. On monthly basis BSE Sensex has support at 100sma which is at 8530 & 50 sma is at 12816.
As has been indicated may times in all old BSE Sensex posts, that bull market or bull trend in BSE Sensex cannot said to be over for longterm till monthly uptrend line2 drawn from low from year 1981 gets broken. And so far it does not appear to have broken. Hence it can be fairly concluded that for long term BSE Sensex is still bullish or bull market.
Momentum Indicator /Oscillator For Monthly Chart
In the monthly BSE Sensex chart the Momentum Indicators or Oscillators KST is in over sold zone. The KST momentum Oscillators has given proper bullish crossover in monthly BSE Sensex chart. But the actual momentum will come when KST Indicator migrates to overbought zone.
Nifty Weekly Chart:
Nifty Futures hourly chart:
On the lower side Nifty may take support from Trend line in yellow 4300 levels below which the gap which formed on Friday - 17th July may give support.
Nifty Futures 5 min chart:
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