NEWSLETTER

NOORESH)

Neyvyeli Lignite headed to 145 keep a stop of 128
Madras Cements a possible cup and handle if breaks above 120
Henkel India : Yet another pick from the FMCG segment which has seen good volume built up and might head to 30/40 over the medium to long term !! Keep a stop of 21.

Sensex Technical View :

The upmove on the index seems to be stalling in the range of 15300-15600 and it clearly needs to surpass 15600 to erase all the doubts and caution. Traders should continue to keep strict stoplosses as the price rise is slower in time and moves getting smaller which is indication of the momentum reducing.

14750/15100 are support levels which would be stoplosses for aggressive traders for near term. The index is yet not convincing but there are some good formations in specific stocks which possibly suggests the action may shift to broader market with index being in a small range.

Being cautious is always bettter and conserving gains is as important as making profits :)

Stocks to watchout for :

NTPC 208,Welspun 204 stops , Compact Disc 59-60 stop on closing basis. United Phosphorous continue to trail.

Kotak Mahindra above 680 could give a trading move to 700

BHEL good amount of resistance at 2300. A move above could help the index.

Ganesh Housing and Praj Inds look good for short term moves of 10-20% .Keep a stop of 4% below todays closing.

Small cap stocks :

This is high risk high return stocks so take care !! Fundamentals just about ok

Camson Bio mentioned has been on ckts for past few sessions ...

Om Metals and Kinetic Motors could be surprise movers of the coming months ! ... only for risk takers.

FMCG Stocks !!! Defensives !!

MY CHART

Nifty :: A Long Legged Doji bull candle.. From last couple of day’s we constantly tell about mild correction or consolidation near supply zone and it is.. Nifty constantly face resistance near 4600 level.. Slowly-slowly Nifty trying to fulfill our Inverted H&S volume breakout supports, but still awaiting major volume breakout..As far as stay above 4504 nothing to worry for bulls.. For 28th July watch strong resistance zone 4591 to 4624 in up move. Our strategy same as yesterday up to 4624 sell at high (S.L 4700) buy in deep (S.L 4504) .. Resistance for up move at 4591/4608/4614/4624/4700.. Supports at 4552/4504/4482..

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on positive note but saw profit booking at higher level and close flat zones . For coming trading session if nifty trade above 4593 zones it will test 4630-4650zones .On the lower side trading below 4550 level it can test 4510-4500 level .On the daily chart nifty had form narrow range body which suggests indecisiveness.

(S S Cheema)

With the expiry around the corner it has become a fight of sorts – not to let the markets run up or fall – lest the markets end up at levels other than the present one. So it is again leading to a tango – one step forward and one step back. Perhaps if the global cues have not been what they are – the markets would have had been some other state of affairs – but that is not so. The DIIs are bearish and the FIIs seems to be supporting the markets as of now. How long this inflow will keep up might be interesting to see and certainly if they do continue then higher levels are well within the reach.

The markets of Asia – baring us were good and green. Nikkei up 1.45%, Hang Seng up1.3% and Strait Times up 1.71%. Europe too started off well – dipped and then closed well off their highs – FTSE up 0.21%, DAX up 0.42% and CAC up 0.18%. US was hovering around the flat line only and DOw finally settled at 0.17% green, Nasdaq up just 0.1% and S&P up 0.30%. There was profit taking in US markets but the markets could just about shake off the effects with leadership in banking stocks there.

As far as purely technicals are concerned – the markets are still into their bullish mode. The Candle yesterday was quite close to a Doji with the body of just 3 points. That has the potential to call it a day for the bulls if the markets end lower today. The Bollinger Bands continue to expand and all lower EMAs are above the higher EMAs. The volumes were thin yesterday. ADX continues to be bullish with =DI above –DI but the ADX (14) still at the same place it was yesterday at 19 indicating the trend without too much of strength. MACD is bullish with positive divergence. RSI remains bullish. Slow Stochastic too remain bullish but as of now have spent six odd says in overbought territory.

As far as the options data for this month Nifty is concerned the put call ratio stands at 1.6 and that should not permit the nifty to fall this expiry. The Put writers will be badly hurt if the markets were to fall so do expect the markets to end up around these or higher levels. After the results of reliance just see the call build up is still where it was – so I feel that there is more down side to the reliance purely from the put call ratio point of view. So it might not be a good idea to enter Reliance yet. In any case the results that it has given are yet to be discounted to my mind.

All in all the markets remain bullish – Global cues are likely to act neutral, we are still technically not being indicated a reversal to bearish undertones except for Doji and overbought Stochastics. ADX as shown in the charts should be taken with a pinch of salt. The option data in Nifty should ensure expiry around these levels or higher and not lower. Ideal strategy for positional holding is to hold long with absolute stoploss of 4450. For today go long above 4569 and short below 4480. If we break the 4480 level then may see the 4295 levels. Best of luck to everyone.

Santy

As described in my earlier post, by end of Friday Nifty has closed high after meeting our mid-term target at 4570. If this upward momentum continues, we could see nifty crossing next target at 4700 and above.

However, I also expect some pullback and profit taking before next leg up. So, for tomorrow, watch the opening level. If nifty opens near or just above today’s close (4570) then wait for first hour to track it’s behaviour. If it comes down, then wait for proper support zone to BUY. Nearest support is seen at 4540/50 level. If nifty goes higher after minor pullback, then BUY above 4560 with stop loss at 4540 for target at 4640. But in the case of large profit taking activity, SELL below 4550 with stop loss at 4570 for target at 4500/4480.

Half Hourly Chart

Daily Chart

Observations

• Nifty achieved the target of falling wedge at 4597 and immediately corrected around 70 points.
  
• A doji on daily charts exactly at neckline resistance of inverse head and shoulder formation shown in pink.
• Nifty has managed to cling onto the uptrendline from 3918.
  
• Closed above downtrendline joining all time highs and post budget high for second consecutive day.
• Advance Declines were healthy.
• Negative divergence on intraday charts intact.

There has been no change in the technicals today . The doji at resistance point is a little ominous and one should be tightening their stops on longs. The Nifty needs to cross the neckline shown in pink on daily charts for further bulllishness.

Supports and Resistance levels are shown on the charts.

(SVShah)

Market has consolidated today as it is in SHAREBAZAARONLINE’s Weekly mentioned Resistance Range.

Hence the decisive move may happen tomorrow after RBI announces its credit policy. There were lot of fears in the market after the Budget that the Interest rates are headed up due to the borrowing programme of the government.

Some people in the market even today feel that interest rates can go as high as 100 basis points which in our opinion is an overstretched expectations. We infact feel that RBI may leave the rates unchanged and this will be a major boost for the bank stocks. Some bank stocks were already reflecting this opinion in their prices today.

The government & the RBI cannot afford to let the rates rise and should do everything so that consumer confidence is not affected.

The latest issue of Money Today talks about the importance of Financial Planning and deals with all aspects of the same, we feel everyone should have a look atleast at the libraries.

NIFTY (4572)

Resistance : 4605 / 4635 / 4665

Support : 4535 / 4495 / 4445

SENSEX (15375.04)

Resistance : 15495 / 15595

Support : 15260 / 15125

NIFTY FUT (4576.3)

Resistance : 4615 / 4640 / 4665 / 4680

Support : 4565 / 4530 / 4505 / 4485

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) up with decreasing volumes indicating forming of short positions at higher levels.

We expect profit booking at higher levels.

On Tuesday,Opening Is Flat To Up,

Buy NIFTY Above 4570,Sl Below 4555,Tgt 4600/35/70/95

Sell NIFTY Below 4545,Sl Above 4560,Tgt 4540/05/4470/25

ACC

Buy Above 850,Sl 845,Tgt 860/65/70/75/80

Sell Below 840,Sl 845,Tgt 830/25/20/15/10

ICICI BANK

Buy Above 765,Sl 755,Tgt 775/85/95+

Sell Below 750,Sl 760,Tgt 740/30/20+

RPL

Buy Above 123,Sl 121,Tgt 125/27/29/31

Sell Below 120,Sl 122,Tgt 118/16/14/12

Buy CIPLA Above 285/90,Sl 280

Buy ICSA Above 180,Sl 175,Tgt 185/90/95

Buy KFA Above 50,Sl 48,Tgt 53/55/57+

Buy NAGARRCONST Above 140,Sl 135,Tgt 145/50/55+

Buy KOTAKBNK Above 660,Sl 650,Tgt 675/80/85/90/95+

Sell RECL Below 175,Sl 180,Tgt 170/65/60/55

Sell SBIN (1711),Sl Above 1730,Tgt 1695/80/70

FUTURES JULY

Buy OPTOCIRCUIT (173.8) July, Sl 168,Tgt 177/79/81/83/86

Buy ADLABS@ 360/65,Sl 355,Tgt 370/75/80/85/90/95+ [Lot Size : 900]

Sell HDFC Below 2380,Sl 2395,Tgt 2360/45/25/05/2290/65/40/15 [Lot Size : 150]

Nifty Intraday Chart - 15 mins:

Looking at the above 15 min Nifty Chart, there are two possibilities outcomes, based on today morning's move:

(1) There is a potential Symmetric Triangle formation in play, if the market retraces down tomorrow to the lower trend line.

(2) At the same time, there is a possibility of forming a Head and shoulder pattern, if Nifty moves down and gives a break down near 4540 levels .

Nifty Chart - Hourly:

For today on the higher side yesterdays pivot highs of 4591 - 4610 levels may act as initial resistance, above which it may reach up to 4640 levels. Next resistance level comes at 4680.
On the lower side 4540 may act as good support. If nifty cracks down with confirming volumes, then 4509 levels may give good support. Below that, 4487 may act as next support taken from the triangle formed on 23rd July. 4460 may act as good support for Nifty because of the Gap and the Triangle support levels which I have mentioned on 23rd July.

PS: If Nifty breaks 4387 levels decisively, then I will exit my next 25% Nifty positions.