NEWS

(NOORESH)

Compact Disc :

The stock looks excellent on short term charts , technically closing above 64 can take it to 80 levels also.

On a brief scan on moneycontrol shows a book value of 80 and p/e of less then 2 which surely makes it interesting as its in the animation field.

Views invited on the same

Bullish Flag /Channels Seen on some charts .........2 examples taken below ...

Will these stay in the range and test lower area or breakout in coming weeks.... Difficult to say but act on confirmatory moves.


Sensex Technical View :

The neckline creating a problem with a doji being formed around it. But it still is not conlusive unless it starts closing below 13900 or above 14800. So wait for a few sessions then to pre-empt and continue with quick trades on specific stocks.

We expect the action would now shift to stock specific moves which would be variant with some stocks dipping whereas others sharply running up.

Stocks to watchout for :

Acc did 832 but could not stay higher. TCS stable heading to 435. ITC continues to be the next defensive pick for days to come.

Hero Honda and Maruti on new highs as expected giving a small trading chance.

Small Cap stock --

IFGL refractories

The stock was earlier covered at 18-21 levels which went up to 35 giving good gains. Small exposure can be taken at 18-20 with a view to add on further declines to 16 levels with a 2-3 mth view and tgt of 24/28.

Do ur own research.

PLAGIARISM !!!

We did use a lot of CTRL-C and CTRL-V all through college and thats what i see lot many bloggers, writers doing with the analysis posted on this BLOG.

The content on the blog is being plagiarised in different manners on blogs, networking sites some of which was pointed out by some readers. Although there is nothing wrong with it till you pass on the credits :)

Only thing which surprised me is some people take quite a lot of effort to erase NAME and e-mail ids from the chart using paint tools :)

Check the link ----------- ( excellent efforts in copying :) -- ( will get more hits coz of this post )

Anyways there have been 1000 + posts and 500-600 charts posted on the blog but we have hardly had comments !! suggestions :) .... ...........

Also if you like the stuff on the blog Do pass the link / recommend the services to others related to the stock market ................Spam your contact list simply :)

MY CHART

Nifty :: A Spinning Top/Long Upper Shadow bearish candle at strong 50% retracement level.. Simultaneously H&S neckline of Sensex works as strong resistance.. Now for 17th July watch resistance level 4305/4360/4396, and Support 4140/4107.. It’s mean major breakout level 4400/4480(pivotal high) and breakdown level 4100 in coming day’s.. Till then we see range treading with higher volatility.. Our strategy for 17th July in down swing buy near support with S.L 4100 and sell at high OR if Nifty move up sell near resistance with S.L 4396 and buy in deep.. Resistance for up move at 4292/4305/4340/ 4360/4396.. Supports at 4205/4164/4140/4107..
(As per Elliott Wave count we plot two possibility.. One is Y leg which start from 20th Nov 2008 with W-X-Y may be over near 4693 and retrace minimum 50% of entire Y leg up to 3600 Or second possibility Y still remain and move up with double zigzag A-B-C, B may be over at 3918 and C move up with targeting of 4900 to 5300.. Most probably with all various charts symptoms Y may be over near 4693..In stock market you must think about alternate scenario and be prepare for it ) ..

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market ended flat today after volatile session and saw profit booking at higher levels .For coming session .On the daily chart nifty form reversal doji pattern if nifty trade below 4191 levels it can test 4151-4090 zones .On the upside 4277-4330 zone will act as resistances zone.
.

(S S Cheema)

Yeah! I do have to take out time and think it out as to how I can improve and where I lacked that the profit that we were running – of 10 k till day before shows a loss now. Where did I lack? See – all said and done most of the levels and the market direction have afterall been correctly predicted over the last few weeks. Where I lacked was on conviction in what the technicals said? After they did point out towards all this. A drop followed by a bounce – even so much so – bounce to 4250 level. Where I lacked is the well thought of exit strategy. Every single book in technical analysis or investment that I have read says that the entry into a position is very important – no doubt – but more important is to time the exit. Well over my next few days I will be spending considerable time and effort to study indicators or strategies that make me come out of positions with maximum profits. I know that it is going to be a daunting task. Looking at the FII/DII data both have purchased collectively for more than 525 worth and that is how the markets ran up singularly.

Coming to the global cues and the technicals. Asia closed well. Europe opened flat – kept climbing to close at the best levels for the day – FTSE up 2.57%, Dax up 3.07% and CAC up 2.90%. US too opened positive – on getting the surprising results from intel – the markets continued their journey upwards to finish at one of the best levels seen. Dow up 3.07%, Nasdaq up 3.51% and S&P up 2.96%. Asia today has opened with a gap up of around 2% and is maintaining it. Nikkei up 2.2% and Strait Times up 1.79%.

On the charts most of the indicators are sitting spot on the confluence that can either propel them forward or make them go back to the original levels. Let us start with the Candles – two good white candles. 3 EMA inching up towards the 15 EMA. We are also in the middle of the Bollinger bands and a crossover will give bullish cues. A matter of fact is that we have 20 EMA at 4213, 15 EMA at 4192 and 3 EMA at 4149. Pretty close to each other and a crossover of lower EMA will signal buy. Volumes were better but still not as much as last 50 day average. ADX – all three line are making a confluence almost accurately. ADX (the black line) – mind you is not giving too much credence to this upswing. The +DI has crossed above the –DI and that makes the markets mildly bullish. MACD is still bearish with reducing divergence. RSI has started looking up and a 50 crossover generates a buy signal. (second – for those who follow this). Slow Stochastic is bullish and at this rate will turn back after a day or two. TRIX is flat and not committal.

Over the last two trading sessions – specially yesterday the open interest in Put have increased dramatically – reversing the position in Nifty. Look at the Nifty Put/call ratio. Option pain for nifty remains almost at the same levels. Considering the open interest. 4000 strike leads followed by 3800 followed by 3900, followed by 4100 – so now we have hurdles going down. The build up of call is way down at fifth position for 4300 levels. So that should be the next hurdle – that we may be at on opening. apart from this the calls in all individual counters still rules.

All in all we have very good global cues. Mixed technicals – with still a small tilt in favour of bears and a lot of call writing still going on. Whatever we see today may turn out to be the highest for the next few days. There are too many resistances at around these levels.

Ser No	Stock/Index	Sold / Bought at	Last Closing	Notional Profit/Loss	Stoploss	Remarks
1.	Nifty	- 50 (4185)	4237	-2600	4207/4202	Shifted the stoploss to 4255 – may have made a mistake.
2.	Reliance					Not initiated.
3.	Nifty Call					Not Initiated.

(Anurag Shukla)

I have written about Finance sector that it can outperform in a big way when sensex was at its lowest and when most wellknown analyst were sceptic on Finance Sector .That has come true.I have been writing to have a focus on Oil Exploration cos as well and I have written about some stocks time and again like Dolphin Offshore,Shiv Vani, Alpha Geo,Selan Exploration etc.They are up by big way.
ABB, Seimens, Thermax,Alsthom Pro, L&T have also given great returns in the mean time after I wrote about them.
I will be talking on Auto Anciallary sector this time.If India needs robust Infrastructure then she needs to spend on that and that is what FM has done in Budget.It is very simple to analyse that if Infra sector is going to have big spending then Auto Anciallary co will have good times along with Capital Goods sector which are the backbone of Infra structure sector.Without Capital Goods sector coming in play this sector cannot get completed.
It is obvious that without LCV's and HCV's the work cannot go on.Trucks and trailer are neccessary ingrediants for Infra and if it takes a front seat then this sector will need LCV's and HCV's will have great days in times to come because for moving things they will be needed very badly and when this happens Auto Anciallary co will also prosper.
I am talking of a co named Lumax Ind which CMP is Rs 96 and they did a buyback in last Jan 08 when market was at the peak at Rs 540.They buyback some over 82 lacs shares at Rs 540 and Lumax Ind is now at Rs 96 after making a low of Rs 60.Lumax Ind is an excellent co with great fundamentals.Even though it made loss of Rs 1.8 cr it still went up.I remember in last bulll run I gave a call of Lumax Ind at Rs 152 to one of my friend for a target of over 500 and he missed it at that time and was asking me to give him another same type of call as he has missed the bus.
This is just for information to let know how things happen.Kwality Dairy is at Rs 270...up from where I gave a call at just Rs 17......couple of years back.It didn't run atall when sensex went on to make new high of 21k but ran when sensex was at 8000 and I think that is the best part that happens because when everyone is losing money your stock is making new high and you are very happy.
Lumax Ind is also same type of call.One need to be patient with it if one buys it now.Lumax Ind is an internatioanl Auto Anciallary co making head lights with Japanese parents.It is a name in itself.What needs one do is buy it and sit on it.It may happen that it may not run with the market but when market is down it will go for upper circuits(UC).....
One should go ahead and have a look at Lumax Ind and if feel comfortable then go ahead and buy in SIP manner.This stock will give great returns in time to come.
I have wrote about couple of dark horse here.One was Rungta Irrigation and other was EPC Ind and both below 20's when I gave a call.They both are making newer highs at 46 and 49 respectively and in UC daily.
The bottomline here is one have to wait for the time to come for a perticular stock.Tha wait can be as big as 2-3 yrs but when they shootup it give multiples return too.
Coming to market , I think from around Mid Aug 09 the market should start its upwards journey very distinctively and what I am writing here that sensex can touch 21k by Dec 2009 can come true.
These are all my views and I may prove wrong in a big way.I don't want to claim anything here.I may go wrong in big way so please do your homework before acting upon anything I writes.....

Yesterday market open 40 to 50 points gap up .And the market will come downside for 4290 levels. The nifty will close falt levels. The market heavy volatile and winding in yesterday market's. Today market will open huge up and also market will come downside for 4220 levels. The nifty will break 4280 level the nifty will come 4220 to 4120 levels. Today market also higher levels selling in market's this reason the market's will come downside for 4120 levels.Suppose the nifty will cross above 4320 level and trade this levels the market will go further uptrend for 4340,4350,4370,4390 to 4420 levels only.Caution in market's the market anytime will come downside.plz use every trade SL.

Nifty Spot

R-4250/4290/4350.
S-4190/4150/4091.

Nifty Fut

R-4240/4285/4335.
S-4185/4141/4090.

Sensex

R-14305/14440/14630.
S-14115/13981/13795.

Yesterday our sell call not active. Buy buy call five call achived. Today nifty buy above 4240 SL 4190 tgt 4250,4270,4290,4320 to 4360 levels. Nifty Sell below 4190 SL 4240 tgt 4180,4160,4150,4130 to 4080 levels.

(Ilango)

Only a decisive close above 4350 will break past the channel.

Booking partially atleast on the longs here is prudent.There is -ve div in the intra charts(5-day macd) and in 5 min charts.


(Ilango)

Positive world markets to keep Nifty in +ve upto 4300-4335 zone and selling is likely to emerge at higher levels.
Closing above 4250 will turn up the weekly TA.
A broader range of 4200/4245 - 4300/4315 is likely.
As the possibility of a daily "OB" correction is due soon, Selling above 4300 with a SL of 4355 for positional and trading the above range for day traders.




pankaj564)

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED

Half Hourly Charts

Falling wedge

Daily Chart

Though the day's trade was disappointing, Nifty's neck remained untouched. Daily momentum seems to be supporting an upmove. A falling wedge is spotted supporting an upside. So long as Nifty's neck remains intact, we can expect a breakout of the falling wedge, opening up possibilities of more upside.

Daily oscillators are showing strength and intraday oscillators are correcting their overbought condition. A weekly close above 3905 will keep hopes of recovery alive.

Nifty is directionless as of now making positional trading difficult. Taking nimble trades would be the right thing to do.

Half Hourly Charts

Falling wedge

Daily Chart

Though the day's trade was disappointing, Nifty's neck remained untouched. Daily momentum seems to be supporting an upmove. A falling wedge is spotted supporting an upside. So long as Nifty's neck remains intact, we can expect a breakout of the falling wedge, opening up possibilities of more upside.

Daily oscillators are showing strength and intraday oscillators are correcting their overbought condition. A weekly close above 3905 will keep hopes of recovery alive.

Nifty is directionless as of now making positional trading difficult. Taking nimble trades would be the right thing to do.


(ss)

Let's look at this in a different way - the market is now above the two recent pivot lows 1 (4090) and 2 (4155) marked above. As long as it stays above them and with the improved internals, the bias is positive and we can expect the market to overcome the resistance.

Above is the hourly chart of Nifty Futures. At present it is resistnace of the trend line and the 78.6% retracement of the down move watch out, hold longs with strict stop loss.

DojiNifty Futures Hourly Chart:

As shown in the hourly chart of Nifty Futures, both toping tails and bottoming tails are visible. Which is indicating that Supply is coming in higher levels and also the bottoming tails are saying that Demand also came in, unlike previous 3 days. We may also consider this as Demand is coming in dips.

Nifty Futures Daily Chart:

Yesterdays move is with higher volumes when compared with the previous 3 days up move. For a true sustained reversal, Demand should be clearly visible but in this case high volumes didn't come yet. Also in the yesterday's down move or retracement (at present) is with high volumes which is not a good indication for bulls. Unless we see clear increase in volumes in the upmove one can't trust this as a reversal.

Nifty Futures Hourly Chart:

For today Nifty may see resistance at the yellow dotted line(4290-4300levels). The trend line resistance and the pivotal resistance are converging at 4360-4390 levels which may become next major resistance for nifty above 4290 levels

On the lower side nifty may take Support from yesterday's low below which next support is at 4130-4120 levels.

Doji30m Chart of McDowell showing Bearish Wolfe Wave:

30m Chart of McDowell showing Bearish Gartley:

The above two charts show two strong bearish patterns formed at the same time and time frame. The Wolfe Wave is almost a perfect one but gartley has formed with secondary harmonics in the ABCD arm. Targets for these patterns also coincide at the close ranges. Its quite interesting have such bearish convergence at one focal point. Lets see how this scrip pans out in the next few days.

Nifty Futures 5 min chart :

Nifty Futures 15 Min chart:

Nifty opened gap up of 47 points due to strong global ques. But the opening was just below the resistance line and stared moving down. It took support form the previous resistance level of 4200, which is also 50% retracement of down move from 6th July to 13 July.It formed a double bottom and also a Symmetric triangle with declining volumes as shown in the above chart. Break out form the triangle didn't happen with conviencing volumes, but it gave a good break out from double bottom pattern.

Wolfe Wave in 1 min chart of Nifty Futures:

After the break out a bearish Wolfe wave formed in 1 min time frame which gave a good signal to reverse the trade at higher levels, as a result double bottom pattern didn't reach the target yet. as I have reversed to short with the wolfe wave and not holding longs for the target of double bottom. Lets see whether double bottom will reach its target tomorrow or not.

This is what bears have gone through in last one week..first the pain of left out on breakdown and then the pain of where to cover/cut the loss.

It’s not the bulls that have driven up the markets in last 3 days but non believers. There was so much of conviction on the short side that non believers refused to back off. The problem: they have run out of fuel now.

Bulls do not need to rejoice…the same anxiety which trapped bears last week may catch up with bulls this week. We remain in a tough market where it pays to be nimble.

Introduction

1. When market refuses to go down, it goes up because all the traders who were positioned to take the market down, give up -and cover their position (read forced buying).
2. It is not the forced buying but fresh buying that takes market to newer highs. Will bulls take the market to new highs?
3. Fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement, while the technician studies the effect…..George Murphy
4. Challenge: In markets, effect becomes visible first; and then we hear/read the cause.
5. Cause: China’s foreign exchange reserves now stands at USD 2 trillion; and there is intense speculation that China may aggressively diversify its reserves by buying strategic resources like Oil and metals. [Buy Commodities and Sell USD.]

Global Cues

1. In US market, it was a classic tussle between bears “H&S breakdown” and bulls “Do or die” support of 875. The bulls won the battle
2. Market loves +ve noise. Overnight, the US Federal Reserve came out with optimistic outlook on US economy. The Fed expects that the economy this year will sink at a slower pace than it previously thought.
3. US market registered its biggest one day gains in months now.
4. On upside, S&P 500 may face strong resistance at 950+. S&P 500 continues to be in range between 875 and 950.
5. Sell USD and Buy Commodity has made a grand comeback. Commodity index- CRB has shot up above 200 dma. Gold is at USD 940 and Crude is at USD 62

STATE OF NIFTY

Source: www.chartalert.com
1. Yesterday, The Nifty logged second day of 100+ point gain and closed up 122 points or 2.97% at 4233…just at 50 dma of 4236.
2. Month to Date: Nifty is down 1.3%. In this week alone, Nifty is up 5.7%….overbought?
3. Will this area act as resistance…4230-4236 is a zone where 20 dma and 50 dma converge.
4. SGX Nifty suggests positive start i.e. 50 points up. Most of the Asian markets are also trading firm.
5. FIIs net bought stocks of worth Rs. 255 crores yesterday whereas DIIs net bought stocks of worth Rs. 273 crores, as per provisional figures. (Cash market figure). Have FIIs run out of selling?
6. FIIs have been consistent buyers in futures market. Yesterday FIIs bought Rs. 540 crores worth of Nifty futures. In stock futures, FIIs net bought 456 crores worth of stocks.

STOCKS AND SECTORS

1. Three Best performing sectors in yesterday’s market - i. Real Estate; ii. Metals; and iii. Power.
2. The Power sector got the boost from IPO pipelines. The two major issues lined up are - 1. Adani Power; and 2. Sterlite Energy.
3. Sterlite Ind is positioned to benefit from both power IPO as well as higher metal prices.
4. The strength of the stock is known by intensity of pullback. JP Associates has managed a 16% pullback in just 2 days.
5. Infra Stocks: Keep an eye on all infra stocks for strong follow through buying be it GMR Infra, GVK Power or Punj Lloyd.
6. Mundra Port: There is visible trading interest in the stock. Something seems to be cooking on the counter and stock needs to be tracked.
7. Disinvestment buzz is good enough to ramp up stocks like NMDC, and MMTC.
8. Two momentum stocks: 1. IRB Infra; and 2. Patel Engineering. A good market adds some percentage of gains.
9. Two results to keep an eye on - 1. L&T; and 2. Bajaj Auto.
10. Reliance: Keep an eye on Reliance. It has been big underperformer since elections. Since June 01, the stock is down 17% whereas Nifty is down just 4.8%

CHALTE CHALTE

1. Inflation Day: It’s Thursday again, and time to look at the inflation figures. Right now, low inflation is a statistical outcome and not economic outcome.
2. Monsoon worries: Will Inflation six months down the line be hit by both: 1. lower base; and 2. Agri stress.
3. Some hope: According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), on an all-India area weighted basis, cumulative rainfall was still 36% below normal up to July 8, although that is an improvement from 46% below normal up to July 01.
4. One Lesson from the recent turnaround: Remain disciplined and prepare for the unexpected.
5. Are you HFT?…HFT mutlub High Frequency Trader
6. “All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure.” - Mark Twain. This is so true in trading…the more you look at various sources of information..the more doubtful you become of market.

Chart of the Day

1. In US, everything on the shelf is “Made in China”. It seems may be now they may need “Made in China” bull market also. Just have a look at the chart below: China continues to be in strong uptrend…with no running correction


Source: stockcharts

Another head and shoulder revisited

Almost all stock markets are showing signs of developing a bullish head and shoulder pattern. This is a pattern that is not ideal, because it has shallow shoulders, but then the markets are not expected to be perfect anyway!
The pattern is revisited everytime the Nifty begins a rally, because that is the time for optimism, and, soon enough, extreme optimism. For the Nifty the neckline comes around 4750 approx. The targets, if the pattern comes about will be 2500 points from the neckline. You can do the math.
Now, these patterns need not fulfill their targets. We had a bearish head and shoulder in the Nifty which has seen a sharp rally and gets cancelled if it trades above 4500 - right shoulder.

Trend Days
In a comment Pi said about wednesday's one sided up move "first a point - today was not a classic trend day - a classic trend would being with a decent size gap, hopefully after a day or two of range bound trading, and would see a smooth uptrend through the day. Today lacked all these characteristics - though the strength of the move was phenomenal, the candlesticks chart looked quite messy, but yes it took supports at the right place and kept breaking past resistances"

I have to differ. A trend day opens at the low and closes at the high with a larger than normal range. (bearish days will open at the high and close at the lows). That's it. We use gaps and prior range bound days to answer the question: Is today likely to be a trend day?". If the day opens with a gap after one or more days of narrow range, then the chances of a trend day increase. But it is not a pre-requirement.

Men has a question about calendr spreads on the mini, which regretfully, I have not understood. Does it mean mini futures or mini options? An example will help.

Sandeep asks: "sir please kindly sugest tradestation or metastock"
My Notes: Both are excellent pieces of software. I have used tradestation for over 12 years for systems development, so I am more comfortable with this one.