NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View ;

Sensex has been a very small range for last 3-4 sessions indicating a pause before it decides its next move. On the upside there are exact tops at 15463 and on bottom side 15220-15240 for last 2 sessions.

15150/14750 are support levels below which i would get cautious on the index. A move beyond 15600 would take us to 16050.

Simple strategy is be stock specific and STRICT with stoplosses. If hit be ready to get to CASH position simple :)

Stocks to watchout for :

Nagarconst , Alstom charts posted

Unitech 80 to 98 rocked !! , Welspun 205/211 to 230 !! , NTPC 220 ! .. .......... Many more trades in our advisory service though :)

Neyvyeli stop 130. Compact 59-60.Henkel hold. Madras only on sustained closing. Renuka crosses and shoots up ( Renuka at 120 and Balrampur at 90 recommended to clients )

I-Flex buy with a stop of 1345 for a tgt of 1480-1550 only for quick and lion hearted traders. Nice lil breakout on charts.

Astra Zeneca Pharma and Abbott are 2 pharma stocks which are illiquid but seeing more volumes but difficult to trade so just a watch.

Sterlite Inds if able to cross and stay above 672 can touch 695-710 in short term. Quick traders can keep a watch.

Nitin Fire and Mahindra Lifespaces is what traders can watch for volume increase or breakout.

MY CHART

Nifty :: Supply zone again works as strong resistance for up move.. Nifty last candle made An Engulfing bear, Spinning top candle pattern, a bearish sign near top. Positive sign is volume, gradually moving up even in side way movement, given support for breakout of Inverted H&S pattern. For 29th July Watch two strong support 4528/4507.. Still higher level works as strong resistance and that’s why our strategy for 29th July sell at high (S.L 4700) buy in deep (S.L 4507).. Resistance for up move at 4615/4632/4652/ 4700.. Supports at 4528/4507/4490/4464…

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on marginally up and after opening turned in to negative zones and end session with red zone. Nifty was trading in narrow range on hourly chart nifty is forming rising wedge pattern and trading below 4529 it will confirm sell pattern .If nifty trade above 4587 it can test 4602-4624 zones on the lower side below4530 it will test 4460-4410 zones .

(S S Cheema)

Like I have been saying for past so many days – the markets are not going anywhere in a hurry this expiry. The reason too has been listed as the open interest of the options. The data is simply to hard to refute. The markets will not go where there is exceptional pain for the option writers. That is what is happening every particular day – no it is not that it is sacrosanct that it will shape up this way – but as of now the fact is that the markets are being kept to make the options expire worthless while keeping that – I might still make it factor dangling in front of option buyers. The same story repeated over and over again. Another thing that I see over and over again is that Fiis and DIIs taking opposite stances at the same period of time – who makes money? FIIs or DIIs? GOD only knows. The news form the good news here, good news here.. has started dying down and we now have hints of bad news here… bad news here… popping off and on. monsoons remain deficient, it is now certain that Swine flu is not likely to leave us any time soon and the India’s tally rises to 475, the results remain mixed at the best, unemployment remains at pretty high levels.

The Global cues remain the same – neither here nor there variety. Asia had a mixed day with us and Nikkei flat and Hang Seng and Strait Times both up 1.84%. Europe started absolutely flat and then as the US opening came closer started loosing ground finally ending – red like in red. FTSE down 1.25%, DAX down 1.46% and CAC down 1.23%. US opened red – came to the flat line and then sunk again only to start a recovery close to the end session and Dow presently is just 0.29% in red. Nasdaq already in green and S&P 500 down 0.49%. the stocks had fallen on earnings and confidence data. It will be interesting how the US markets close tonight.

On the charts this is the second day of the Doji and it conveys extreme confusion still persisting. Every moment spent at these levels will only make the coming trend more stronger. The candles are no longer trailing the upper edge and the markets may require something extraordinary to continue going up. The volumes of nifty were 97% of the 50 day average. On ADX I have got totally confused as the data presented on iCharts is conflicting with the one on my software that I use. All the same the +DI line has definitely come down and the ADX line is still at 19 giving no credence to the present trend. The MACD remains to be bullish with exactly the same divergence. RSI is bullish but is now showing the signs of getting exhausted. Slow Stochastic is overbought but the %K line being above the %D line still trailing bullish. The TRIX too is looking up and seems in bullish mood.

I am not posting the put call options chart for nifty as it remains more or less there only. Only thing that I notice is that slowly and steadily the next month is mirroring this months doings in the sense that the Put build up is so far more than calls. If it continues like this only then the chances are that the markets will not have the expected fall in Aug. Any way that is some time away and we will see it when the time comes.

All in all the global cues are turning weak, the fundamentals are also tumbling. The technicals are bullish with exception of ADX being weak and Stochastic being overbought. Another dark cloud in the sky would be the appearance of two Dojis one after the another. The fall if it comes can be quite huge. The options data is the one preventing the markets from going down. Ideal strategy would be to come out of longs and wait for re-entry. For intraday do not hold long below 4521 and do not hold shorts above 4592. The range is constricting and the breakout can be vicious.

Bramesh

An excellent case of Multiple tops Recatangular pattern tgt 355 362

Bramesh

SBI The PSU behemoth charts are presented:

Technical Observation:
Stock is at its resistance zobe of 1740 once thats is crossed can bounce till 1766 and 1793

Support for stock comes at 1672 and if thats get broken can fall easily till 1630 1570 1500

Yesterday market high volatile and nifty it will not cross 4600 levels. And the closing of market marginal negative. Today the market will open huge uptrend for 20 to 30 points. The nifty will cross 4620 levels the market will further bullish trend for 4640 to 4720 levels only. Today and tommorrow nifty will trade new high for 4720 to 4820 levels. Suppose the nifty will trade below 4550 levels small correction in market's the nifty it will come downside for 4480 to 4445 levels. Then the nifty 4445 level break the nifty will come 4420 levels only. Tommorrow Future and option closing this month , So we expect short covering coming in market's. So the nifty will trade new higher levels.

Nifty Spot

R-4564/4600/4635.
S-4530/4493/4458.

Nifty Fut

R-4570/4602/4642.
S-4530/4496/4456.

Sensex

R-15345/15450/15570.
S-15227/15121/15003.

Yesterday our sell call not active , but buy call two target achived. Today Nifty Buy abv 4570 SL 4530 tgt 4590,4600,4610,4620,4650,4670 to 4720 levels. Nifty Sell below 4530 SL 4570 tgt 4510,4500,4480,4460,4440 to 4420 levels.

For the past few weeks global markets have been supportive and domestic results have been good.Liquidity has been high with FII's buying.Now things have changed a little.
The market has paused with heavyweights like RIL and Hindustan Unilever reporting poor results.However liquidty has still remained high.

Is this pause a consolidation to move up and cross 4650 or move down only time will time.It can be safely said that Nifty was stopped on its way up with sudden delivery based selling in RIL and now Hindustan Unilever.More such delivery selling of heavyweights can keep Nifty under pressure.

Trading below 4550 is the first sign of weakness with supports likely to be 4530-4495.4580-4600 continues to be resistance and supports are rising everyday which may make the breakdown easier.

If 10 DMA which is 4485 holds on any downward movement or if 4505-4525 area holds, further upmoves are possible.




Here's a look at the daily % change in Nifty Futures.
June and July have been relatively quiet months.
There is only one instance of a 6% change and 5 instancess of a 3% change.
What is normally interpreted as "volatile" by the media is actually choppyness.

SantyToday nifty found support near 4530/40 level and traded higher touching high at 4590 but closed just below opening level at 4564. Today’s candle is a bearish bar and past 6 sessions daily candles shows indecisiveness between buyers and sellers. As we had discussed in my earlier post, nifty has broken the pink trendline and closed below it. So, if tomorrow market moves to down side, then watch the price action and volume. If market moves down by making lower highs and lower lows pattern ( in small time frame, 5/15 min frame), then SELL at 4525 with stop loss at 4560 for target at 4480.




Half Hourly Chart

Daily Chart showing rising wedge

Daily Chart

• We have twin dojis on daily charts.
  
• Yesterday's lows held and highs were scaled by just a whisker.
  
• The Nifty is moving up in a rising wedge and the lower trendline has been broken but there is a only a sideways movement till now. Anticipate a sharp fall if continues to trade below the trendline.
  
• Oscillators on Daily charts are strong but intraday charts continues to show negative divergence.
• The neckline of the inverse head and shoulder show in green is proving strong resistance.
• Nifty maintains for the third consecutive day, the breakout from the downtrend line drawn from all time highs shown in green on daily charts.
  

Uptrend is intact. However one needs to be cautious considering the fast and steep runup without meaningful corrections, break of lower trendline of the rising wedge and the warning negative divergences on intraday charts.

Resistance and support levels marked on charts.



(SVShah)

It was another volatile day for the Indian markets as the Sensex made swings through negative and positive zones. After opening in a positive zone, it immediately entered the negative zone. Sensex managed to recover in the afternoon session but only to decline in the fag end of closing. While Sensex closed at 15331 .94 down 43.10 points Nifty closed at 4564.10 down 8.20 points. Real Estate and Automobile Index were up with RBI maintaining status quo But Banking index witnessed a decline of 1.22 per cent. Other sectoral indices remained out of the limelight and ended on a flat note. But the mid-cap and small Cap indices managed to outperform the Sensex with significant gains. Market breadth was positive with 1709 advances and 945 declines.

NIFTY (4564.1)

Resistance : 4600 / 4635 / 4655 / 4685

Support : 4530 / 4515 / 4485 / 4460

SENSEX (15331.94)

Resistance : 15450 / 15585 / 16045

Support : 15280 / 15205 / 15105

NIFTY FUT (4566)

Resistance : 4605 / 4645 / 4680

Support : 4535 / 4490 / 4450

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) up with increasing volumes indicating forming of short positions at higher levels.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

On Wednesday,Opening Is Flat To Down,

Buy NIFTY Above 4570,Sl Below 4555,Tgt 4600/20/35/60/75

Sell NIFTY Below 4545,Sl Above 4560,Tgt 4530/05/4480/65/40

BUY

IVRCLINFRA Above 345,Sl 340

APIL Above 540,Sl 530,Tgt 545/50/55/60

KFA Above 50,Sl 47,Tgt 53/55/57

SCI Above 125,Sl 120,Tgt 130/35/40

RELINFRA Above 1180/85,Sl 1170,Tgt 1210/20/30/40

SELL

RELCAP Below 905/900,Sl 915,Tgt 890/80/70

SBIN (1682),Sl Above 1700,Tgt 1665/55/45

INFOSYS Below 2010,Sl 2035,Tgt 1990/80/70

FUTURES July

SAIL (177.5)

Support : 175/173

Resistance : 178/180/182/185

RELINFRA (1210) : Buy@ 1195,Sl 1170,Tgt 1215/30/40+

ICSA : Buy@ 186,Sl 184,Tgt 188/90.6/92.5/94.3/96/98++ (Lot Size : 1200)

INFOSYS(1995) : Sell@ 2010,Sl 2035,Tgt 1995/85/75/65

RELCAP (892) : Sell@ 900,SL 915,Tgt 890/80

BANKINDIA : Sell@ 322,Sl 325,Tgt 319/17/15/13/10/06/04++ (Lot Size : 950)

Spot Nifty Intraday Chart - 5 mins:

Sensex Intraday Chart - 5 mins:

Both the sensex and spot Nifty are moving in channel, break out or break down of which may give the direction the next trend.

NIFTY(4564)-

We wrote here yesterday one should concentrate

on quality stocks and not to bother about the Index

movement. Tuesday(28 th July) was yet another day

of volatile and aimless movements, the benchmark

index failed once again to sustain at the top. Today

we will definitely trade above 4600 for some time and

will take support at yesterdays close(4564) and dipping

below 4550 trading there for considerable time will be

indication of further correction. We have said earlier and

we repeat that correction will be in healthy for the market

and there is no reason (as on today) to fear a sell off of any

kind. For Nifty 4400-4750 will be the market range in

coming days.

UNITECH(95.7)-

Support 94 and 92 SL 90.Target 100 and 104.

ROLTA(142)-

SUPPORT AT 140 AND 137 SL 135.Target 150.

YESBANK(162.65)-

Support at 160 and 158 SL 156.Target 169.

MOSERBAER(85)-

Support 84.5 and 82 SL 80.Target 89.

RNRL(82.7)-

Support at 81 SL 79.Target 85.