NEWSLETTER

NOORESH)

Just a quick observation on crude --- Support around 56-58 zone.

Sensex Technical View :

50 dema /23.6% retracement / gap support all come in the range of 13500-13700. So it clearly becomes important that index needs to hold on to these levels in near term and if it doesnt we may very well head to 12700/12300/11600 also.

Head and Shoulders pattern also formed suggests a possibility of neckline being re-tested around 14k-14.3k also. But the pattern is too evident so chances of failing or being delayed is also possible. So just wait and watch be stock specific as i again expect action would be out of the index.

Till we dont see 13.5k or 14.3k we would just watch the index.

Stocks to watchout for :

GTL Infra and Elecon engg ( up 12% rightaway) are investment picks. Do your own research.

ITC , Essar Oil , Century Textiles charts posted below.

FORTIS HEALTHCARE :

Long term investors can again look to take exposure in the stock at 75 levels if comes with a view of 1-2 years. Earlier had bought at 75 and booked at 100. Stock has since corrected and can be a good re-entry point. Only meant for patient investors.

(NOORESH)

ITC :

The stock was earlier covered at 185 for a small trade to 200. Right now the stock seems to have finally gathered strength to cross beyond the huge resistance of 212-216 or after a dip may possibly go above those levels.

Investors can look to buy on dips for a tgt of 240 over the medium term. This defensive may go the same way as HUL, Dabur , Colgate ( all covered earlier )

Essar Oil :

The stock gave a false move around 190 and stopped us out some time back. The stock has since been cracking in a downchannel. 61% correction comes to around 110 odd. Downchannel support around 120. Expect to see some supports in this range 120/108. Bounce could come up to 135/145 levels also. Investors/traders can accordingly position themselves.

Watch for volume support in Century textiles.

S S Cheema)

The markets were directionless – waiting for some breath of life – but there was none. There is a Infosys surprise around the corner.

They have a habit of beating their guidance and have been generally the morale booster for the markets.

It has to be seen what they say tomorrow. I will leave the – what will happen and what the results be to the insiders and punters – but yes the butterflies will keep flying in my stomach till the results are out and I know what it will mean in real terms. I do not see a runaway market – but then who can say?

Okay without wasting any more time – the global cues. Nikkei was down 1.38%, Hang Seng was up 0.39% and Strait Times was up 2.12%. Europe was green all the way but closed lower the highs of the day. FTSE was up 0.45%, DAX up 1.26% and CAC was up 0.54%. US was weak but is now moving into green. DOW is as of now up 0.1%, Nasdaq up 0.61% and S&P is up 0.53%. There are chances that US finishes green – but will see tomorrow morning again.

As far as the candles are concerned – there is no change in the trend or the technicals. We are still trailing the lower edge of the Bollinger Bands and 15 Has fallen 12 points below the 20 EMA. The candle yesterday was a perfect Doji – representing the confusion among the Bulls and the Bears – so frankly the pulls and pushes will continue with bulls trying their level best – especially if they have the support of some good results from the companies in the upcoming result season. The ADX is Bearish and as expected the bears will grow from strength to strength in the coming few days. The ADX proper is at 17.68 and above 20 is what I am looking forward to with the red line remaining above the green. MACD divergence is negative (read bearish). RSI is bearish and mind you nowhere near the oversold zone so on the account of RSI being oversold – do not think reversal. The Slow Stochastic is bearish and this is one signal that can give a temporary relief – being oversold. TRIX looks down and favours bears.

I have already posted the options data yesterday – so today I will use the options data to point out the levels where the call or the put build up is there so that we can watch out for those levels. There was a small problem with the options Put/Call ratio chart I had put up yesterday – the IOC show only call build up – but there is only one outstanding call position so take it with a pinch of salt – there is no options playing out in IOC. As far as the Nifty Option data is concerned – the max open interest is at Put 4000, Put 3800 and call 4300 and call 4700. the Call build up is more and put call ratio is 0.852. Reliance also makes an interesting study – No guesses as to where is is going to – deep well may be a good answer.

Coming to the tracking of our positions – here is the data. I would watch for the 4050 and 4000 levels in Nifty – no bother too much about the upswing even if it happens and have patience. Risk to reward is in our favour. Our markets may open flat to negative – so to carry our position forward over the weekend take 4200 call. will review on Monday about carrying it forward.

Ser No	Stock/Index	Sold / bought at	Last closing	Notional profit/loss	Stoploss	Remarks
1.	Nifty	- 50 (4185)	4081	+ 5,200/-	4271/4266	Stoploss is at 10 points above 15 EMA line.
2.	Reliance					Patience!

The last friday market open 10 to 20 points gapup and high volatile winding in market 10 to 2 pm and the nifty will small uptrend for after 2 pm it will come and trade 4120 levels. after 2.45 pm market suddenly come downside moreover 100 points down. The nifty spot and fut will break 4000 levels. Coming monday market will open gapdown expected. Andalso the nifty will break 3980 the nifty will come 3920 levels. Inthis level again nifty break the nifty will come 3820 to 3720 levels. Suppose the nifty will bounced from lower level again the nifty will come 4020,4040,4065,4080 to 4120 levels only. The market caution plz use SL in every trade.

Nifty Spot

R-4037/4097/4190.
S-3944/3884/3791.

Nifty Fut

R-4030/4094/4195.
S-3928/3863/3762.

Sensex

R-13606/13795/14085.
S-13316/13127/12837.

Yesterday our buy call first three call achived. Also sell call five target achived. Today Nifty Buy above 4030 SL 3980 tgt 4050,4060,4080,4100 to 4120 levels. Nifty sell below 3980 SL 4030 tgt 3970,3950,3930,3920 to 3780 levels.