NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Nothing much has changed.

A small doji candle seen today indicating a pause. Resistance now arnd 13900 for near term. Any break below todays low of 13200 would lead to 12700.

Stocks to watchout for :

TCS and Chamble possible trades posted above.

Bounce back stocks to trade with a stop of 2% from previous close. Tgt 5% pullback in the day.

IFCI , Reliance Infra , Rcom, Bajaj Hindustan.

Buy closer to yesterdays close and keep booking partial profits

ITC

Continues to show strength. Buy if stays above 216 or on declines to 195-200. In medium term may touch 240 also.

Fundamental trackers if they follow the given companies do some research:

Cranes Software , Accel Frontline, Ballarpur Inds , Standard Inds.

MY CHART

Nifty :: We clearly indicate in our weekly post that any time bounce beck possible from strong support zone and Elliott wave target zone.. As per wave count Y of c target almost achieved in morning session.. Still mid term momentum down. H&S target pending, and that’s why avoid buying if Nifty open gap up.. Now any up move H&S breakdown level works as strong resistance.. As far as Nifty stay above 3955/3943 short term momentum up.. Our strategy for 14th July buy on deep (S.L 3943) Sell at high (S.L 4130).. If Nifty open gap up and move up near last three resistance reverse your strategy as sell at high (S.L 4130) buy on deep (S.L 3943).. Resistance for up move at 4039/4064/4090/4105/ 4130.. Supports at 3955/3943/3920/3870..

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on gap-down on weak global cues and close with negative zones. On the daily charts nifty had form narrow range body formation which suggest indecisiveness at current levels. We can see small pullback around 4047 zone on the other side 3935-3889 zone will act as support zones .

(S S Cheema)

A breather is what I had expected yesterday after breaching the 3900 levels. Like a ship about to burst at seams – the Markets held on… yes they did close negative but gave a sense that after bulls are not happy about the way they have been treated. The problem does not lie here – but lies in the fact that FII money is flowing out and inspite of the continues buying from the DII the markets are not getting the support they want. Here I have another question that haunts me. I have invested a fair amount of money in Mutual funds and just going purely by the money flow data that pops in front of my eyes every morning I am inclined to think – and think hard. Is the money in good hands with them? How come they are always are doing opposite to what the FIIs are doing? Are they under some sort of a pressure to keep the markets looking good? – read not going to dumps the way the FIIs have sold. After all we would have gone down much worse – had the DIIs also sold during this period. Finally I had a portfolio of stock when the markets crashed – I lost 50% and so did – some of the mutual funds that I hold. Questions… Questions and more questions and sadly no answers. Yes there are fund houses that did perform better – and ofcourse I have shifted to those fund houses.

The Global cues are what the bulls would have prayed for with their knees down. These cues will certainly put pressure on the bears today – or perhaps for this week. Let us see them. Europe had opened red/flatish and then as the US cues kept coming in ahead of the important data out of US the markets kept improving finally ending 2 to 3 percent in green. FTSE up 1.82%. DAX up 3.19% and CAC up 2.31%. US too started the day almost flat but then ahead of the data coming out it started recovering – finally ending decisively in the bull territory. Dow was up 2.27%, Nasdaq up 2.12% and S&P up 2.49%. After a week of bull hunting – it is time that bulls also try to show their strength for whatever they are worth and the Asia has opened green. Nikkei is up 2.11% and Strait Times up 1.76%. All this is well but the news out of US is not all that good – mind you their Budget deficit is up 1 Trillion with the fears of it reaching 2 Trillion and there are fear that the dollar as a currency may not perform well in near future.

As far as the candles are concerned – we have a small reversal pattern yesterday. The hammer! That made the markets come off the lows before closing – however we continue to trail the lower Bollinger bands. The 15 EMA is at 4197 – very near to where we entered the shorts. This is the level that I am not hoping to be breached when the bulls try to play with the bears. If not breached then this is the level around where we will get a signal to increase on to the short we are already holding. On the down side 100 EMA is at 3830 – another hurdle to our markets going down. ADX is bearish and seeing purely from the ADX point of view – the sell signal was generated with the day – before’s candles. MACD continues with the negative divergence and is bearish. RSI still looking down but not in the oversold territory. Only signal that supports a recovery on the charts that I follow is Slow Stochastic – that is both oversold and has %K line crossing above the % D line. TRIX is bearish.

Looking at the Options data – one of the biggest build up of open interest in Nifty is 3800 level and I feel that we are going to be playing in a narrow band till the time this levels is broken on the down side. The banking sector may perform the best in this week during the recovery.

All in all – the global cues favour a recovery – that I had frankly expected yesterday in our markets. Technicals remain weak but as the Slow Stochastic is overbought and bullish – it will help the market recover a bit today. Options have seen the largest open interest buildup at 3800 level that would take time to be broken on the downside. I feel we should remain range bond between – 3800 to 4150 levels for some time. max upside should be capped at 4200.

Best of luck to everyone for today…

Ser No	Stock/Index	Sold / Bought at	Last Closing	Notional Profit/Loss	Stoploss	Remarks
1.	Nifty	- 50 (4185)	3974	+10550	4207/4202	Since I expect the markets to go to max of 4200 levels the stoploss can be kept another 25 points above so that it does not get triggered.
2.	Reliance					Not initiated
3.	Nifty Call					Looking forward to selling Nifty call, strike 4200 when nifty crosses 4150.

Yesterday market will open gap down 40 to 50 points. And also the market is heavy volatile it. Then the nifty will small recover in second-off. The nifty will close 30 points mines and 3975 levels. Today the nifty open also negative opening and the nifty will anytime small bounce back any level. The nifty 3920 levels is the small support level in nifty. We expect this level market will small bounce in market's. The nifty break 3920 this levels the market will come again downside for 3820 to 3720 level come surly. The last and final big support in nifty for 3620 levels only. The small bounce back for 4020 level the nifty will come its not sure. Alart in market's.

Nifty Spot

R-3965/4012/4049.
S-3928/3881/3844.

Nifty Fut

R-3955/4003/4038.
S-3920/3870/3835.

Sensex

R-13360/13501/13603.
S-13259/13120/13017.

Yesterday our buy call not active. But Sell call 4 target's achived. Today nifty buy abv 3955 SL 3920 tgt 3970,3980,3990 to 4020 level only. Nifty sell below 3920 SL 3955 tgt 3900,3890,3865,3850,3830 to 3800 levels.

(pankaj564)

LOOK AT CHART ATTACHED.

COMMENTS ON CHART.

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

Today was a down day again and we reached the first pattern-rising wedge -target of 3916. The candle formed on daily charts shows support at lows and is a badly formed hammer. So though we cannot term it as a hammer yet it has qualities like a small real body, long lower shadow and a close towards the high of the day, which would goad us to anticipate an upmove.

The intraday oscillators are oversold and beginning to move up. The ROC12 has given a positive divergence and Macd has give a buy signal. On daily charts, the stochastics has given a buy in the oversold region. Macd and Rsi 14 have managed to remain above the supports (shown in charts of post for 13th July). All these points towards a pullback.

However one must remeber that we are in a downtrend. The intraday moving averages are all bearishly aligned and the short term moving averages on daily charts are also bearishly aligned. Till these averages get bullishly aligned upmoves should be viewed with suspicion.

Expect a pullback on breakout from the falling wedge shown on intraday charts. targets will be set after breakout. I would lighten shorts and wait for an oppurtunity to short at higher levels.

In case the downmove continues we could expect 3700-3600. For exact targets refer charts.

Above is the Nifty Daily chart. Nifty opened gap down and closed near to yesterdays close, indicating time for retracement.

Above is the hourly chart of Nifty Futures, on the higher side 4055 and 4127 may act as resistances, on the lower side 3800 levels may act as support.

Above is the Hourly chart of Nifty Futures, marked with modified ABCD pattern of yesterdays chart. Today Nifty opened gap down and formed a symmetric triangle due to indecision of trend. It gave break down with volumes and reached the target of the triangle as expected. But later on it moved up and closed the Gap which is not good for the bears as was very crucial. Closing the Gap calling the bulls in to the market.

Now CD retracement of AB is approximately equal to 100%, but BC extension is not falling into good Fibo ratio (1.78%). This is not a perfect ABCD patten from this levels. As I mentioned yesterday, there are chances of forming good ABCD extension pattern if Nifty drifts down to 3800 levels in next couple of days. Any upmove from here may be termed as a retracement as of now.