NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

HEAD N SHOULDERS pattern posted below alongwith chart.

Sensex 14500-14900 band which is a very strong resistance. So we need to see whether the index can stay above it or not ! .... If taken shorts in the range of 14200-14500 keep a strict stop of 14600 as part of discipline.

Dow Jones with a strong move has yet again come to its resistance of 8600 odd ! ... So all global indices are similarly poised. Do they have more strength ?? will need to see for another 3-4 sessions.

Stocks to watchout for :

TCS moves higher. Elecon up 20% n more frm a week back. GTL infra hold.

ITC can be added as a defensive pick.

Many stocks look set for a positive breakout but with index at crucial stage trade for the day with close stoploss . Also many of these stocks gave sharp breakdowns 2-3 days back and have pulled back sharply so its going to be tricky so keep strict stops.

ACC

The stock has multiple tops around 812. Buy above 814 with a 15 rs stop tgt 840.

Bharat Electric

Multiple tops seen around 1450-1470. Watch if crosses 1470 with volumes. Difficult stock to trade.

Hero Honda and Maruti are shaping positively for further highs if the stock stays above 1500 and 1125. The move could be another 5-8%

MY CHART

Nifty :: Firmly break last resistance 4210 with last hour increasing volume and close above it.. As per chart structure Nifty still in corrective up move.. Nifty already neglect H&S neckline but Sensex below it (14440) .. Now for up move conformation first we check breakout level 4396 and above it intermediate pivots high 4480.. Till then avoid giving long commitment and keep strictly stop loss in buying.. Our strategy for 16th Jul buy in deep (S.L 4212) Sell at high (S.L 4396).. Or near strong resistance 4373/4396 Sell at high (S.L 4396) buy in deep (S.L 4212).. Resistance for up move at 4264/4305/4373/ 4390.. Supports at 4212/4148/4131/4110..

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on gap-upon positive global cues and close with hand some gains. For coming session if nifty cross 4259-4265 zones it can test 4300-4334 zone at the end of session nifty end near resistances zone .On hourly chart nifty is enter in overbought zone if nifty trade below 4200 levels it can test 4150 zones .

(S S Cheema)

Yeah! I do have to take out time and think it out as to how I can improve and where I lacked that the profit that we were running – of 10 k till day before shows a loss now. Where did I lack? See – all said and done most of the levels and the market direction have afterall been correctly predicted over the last few weeks. Where I lacked was on conviction in what the technicals said? After they did point out towards all this. A drop followed by a bounce – even so much so – bounce to 4250 level. Where I lacked is the well thought of exit strategy. Every single book in technical analysis or investment that I have read says that the entry into a position is very important – no doubt – but more important is to time the exit. Well over my next few days I will be spending considerable time and effort to study indicators or strategies that make me come out of positions with maximum profits. I know that it is going to be a daunting task. Looking at the FII/DII data both have purchased collectively for more than 525 worth and that is how the markets ran up singularly.

Coming to the global cues and the technicals. Asia closed well. Europe opened flat – kept climbing to close at the best levels for the day – FTSE up 2.57%, Dax up 3.07% and CAC up 2.90%. US too opened positive – on getting the surprising results from intel – the markets continued their journey upwards to finish at one of the best levels seen. Dow up 3.07%, Nasdaq up 3.51% and S&P up 2.96%. Asia today has opened with a gap up of around 2% and is maintaining it. Nikkei up 2.2% and Strait Times up 1.79%.

On the charts most of the indicators are sitting spot on the confluence that can either propel them forward or make them go back to the original levels. Let us start with the Candles – two good white candles. 3 EMA inching up towards the 15 EMA. We are also in the middle of the Bollinger bands and a crossover will give bullish cues. A matter of fact is that we have 20 EMA at 4213, 15 EMA at 4192 and 3 EMA at 4149. Pretty close to each other and a crossover of lower EMA will signal buy. Volumes were better but still not as much as last 50 day average. ADX – all three line are making a confluence almost accurately. ADX (the black line) – mind you is not giving too much credence to this upswing. The +DI has crossed above the –DI and that makes the markets mildly bullish. MACD is still bearish with reducing divergence. RSI has started looking up and a 50 crossover generates a buy signal. (second – for those who follow this). Slow Stochastic is bullish and at this rate will turn back after a day or two. TRIX is flat and not committal.

Over the last two trading sessions – specially yesterday the open interest in Put have increased dramatically – reversing the position in Nifty. Look at the Nifty Put/call ratio. Option pain for nifty remains almost at the same levels. Considering the open interest. 4000 strike leads followed by 3800 followed by 3900, followed by 4100 – so now we have hurdles going down. The build up of call is way down at fifth position for 4300 levels. So that should be the next hurdle – that we may be at on opening. apart from this the calls in all individual counters still rules.

All in all we have very good global cues. Mixed technicals – with still a small tilt in favour of bears and a lot of call writing still going on. Whatever we see today may turn out to be the highest for the next few days. There are too many resistances at around these levels.

Ser No	Stock/Index	Sold / Bought at	Last Closing	Notional Profit/Loss	Stoploss	Remarks
1.	Nifty	- 50 (4185)	4237	-2600	4207/4202	Shifted the stoploss to 4255 – may have made a mistake.
2.	Reliance					Not initiated.
3.	Nifty Call					Not Initiated.

Bramesh

Nifty today touched the trend line ogf HnS closed above it 50 MA 13 EMA so looks like bulls are back on the street.


Were confirmation will still require more evidence as i am still not convinced with this run.

the upper band of channel is around 4320 as seen in charts and lower band is near 3920 so we are in trading range as of now between bot the levels.Support around 4180 now.

Well as per EW we can fall in D wave of correction in zig zag manner.


Lets see if HnS fails and we rally till 4500 or we start correcting from tomorrow or day after??

Yesterday market also positive trend the nifty will open huge up open for 30 to 40 points and gradually the nifty will rise it will go 4250 levels. And the nifty will close at 4230 levels. Today market also small gapup we expected for 20 to 30 points. The nifty will trade above 4250 level again the market will go further uptrend for 4320 levels only. Then this level the nifty will reach the market selling pursurre come in market's. The nifty downside level for 4200,4180,4150,4120 to 4020 level today. Suppose today market will positive trend continued upto 4420 levels only the nifty will going uptrend level.

Nifty Spot

R-4201/4283/4332.
S-4152/4070/4021.

Nifty Fut

R-4205/4290/4340.
S-4155/4067/4018.

Sensex

R-14150/14405/14557.
S-13996/13739/13587.

Yesterday our sell call not active . But buy call all target's achived. E'joy the profit's. Today Nifty Buy abv 4205 SL 4155 tgt 4220,4230,4250,4270,4290 to 4320 levels. Nifty Sell Below 4155 SL 4205 tgt 4130,4120,4100,4080,4050 to 4020 levels.

(Ilango)

Option 1: Nifty moved close to 4500 on "Budget day" and falling since then...with a bounce on now.
Option 2: Nifty is trading in a band of 4600-3900 now, if 4350-4370 is crossed, may move higher.
Nifty moved up quite smoothly clearing all hurdles. The last hurdle being the "Week High Ema"(Which will rise further up beyond 4400 if more highs are made). Watch the close above "Day High Ema" for continuation of the upmove.

Slow macd turned up and Nifty close-chart @ channel res. A close above 4300 may turn things up.

Hourly macd comfortably moved into +ve and Nifty trending up in a steep channel. Next resistances are 4290-4335.

The short term close to the channel res @ 4315-4330 with "OB" readings..Partial profit booking & watch the channel's resistances..

Santy

Nifty certainly went higher from past two days after finding support at 3970 level and met our first target at 4100. However it also traded higher continuously all day through closing high at 4233. From chart pattern, we can see a 1,2,3 pattern wave forming and the 4th wave is expected to be the XA wave ending near 4350 level. So nifty is expected to rise tomorrow touching high at 4330/50 level. Tomorrow watch the opening price level. If it opens with GAP high then wait for a small pullback( near 4210)to enter or BUY ay breakout (near 4240/50 level) whichever comes first for target at 4330/50.If nifty crosses the Pink trend line and continues to trend higher in next sessions, then it will be evident that H&S pattern voids and we will see new midterm Uptrend in which case Nifty could see 4550 and 4700 level again.

Half Hourly Chart

Daily Chart

Nifty's neck is once again strong and everything seems to be supporting it. But the head has to approve. So there are hurdles put on the way which if surpassed the head will be more than happy to approve further advancement.

Hurdles are marked on the chart.

"Excuse me", say the daily short term moving averages , "we are still bearish, though we are already trying to shake off the bearish stupo

(SVShah)

Daily Market Outlook: 16 July 2009

It was another excellent day of trade for our market supported by positive global cues. Today Nifty closed above its 50 DMA of 4230. And rally was led by realty, power and metal stocks. The market breadth was positive with advances at 1120 against declines of 131 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Reliance Power, DLF and Hindalco while losers were Infosys and Ambuja Cements. Though initially it remained range bound, the Sensex gather strength after it continued to break key resistances one after the other. One has to be very cautious at this point of time and hence it would be advisable to book profits at regular intervals and make money.

NIFTY (4233.5)

Resistance : 4260 / 4285 / 4335

Support : 4200 / 4150 / 4070

SENSEX (14253)

Resistance : 14265 / 14380 / 14420 / 14585 / 14630

Support : 14190 / 14030 / 13970 / 13690

NIFTY FUT (4237)

Resistance : 4255 / 4290 / 4310 / 4340

Support : 4190 / 4155 / 4065

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI down 1.48% with 10% decreasing volumes indicating short covering.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade rangebound with volatility.

On Thursday,Opening Is Flat To Up,

Buy NIFTY Above 4230,Sl Below 4210,Tgt 4250/75/4305/35/50/90

Sell NIFTY Below 4200,Sl Above 4220,Tgt 4180/55/25/05/4090/60

High Risk Traders : Sell NIFTY@ 4300,Sl 4400,Tgt 4200/4150/4100/4050/4000

APTECH

Buy Above 150,Sl 145,Tgt 155/60

Sell Below 145,Sl 150,Tgt 140/35

KSK

Buy Above 190,Sl 185,Tgt 195/200

Sell Below 185,Sl 190,Tgt 180/75

BOB

Buy Above 415,Sl 410,Tgt 420/25/30

Sell Below 405,Sl 410,Tgt 400/395/90

TCS

Buy Above 425,Sl 420,Tgt 430/35/40

Sell Below 420,Sl 425,Tgt 415/10/05

VSNL

Buy Above 470,Sl 465,Tgt 475/80

Sell Below 465,Sl 470,Tgt 460/55

BUY

CUMMINS Above 255,Sl 250,Tgt 265/75/85/95

NETWORK18 Above 95,Sl 90,Tgt 100/10/20

PFC Above 225,Sl 215,Tgt 240/50/60/70+

INFOSYS Above 1820,Sl 1800,Tgt 1840/55/75

JETAIR Above 245,Sl 240,Tgt 250/55

SBIN (1637),Sl Below 1615,Tgt 1655/65/75

SELL

RELCAP Below 815,Sl 825,Tgt 805/800/795

LITL Below 385,Sl 390,Tgt 380/75/70

FUTURES

Buy SAIL Above 161/62,Sl 159,Tgt 163.9/65.8/66.7/67.6

Buy ABAN@ 815/20,Sl 805,Tgt 827/31/39/46/55/64/72/80/88 (Lot Size : 400)

Sell ZEEL@ 166/67,Sl 169,Tgt 164/62/61/59.8/57.6/55.8/54.3/52.6/50

(ss)

The head and shoulders pattern fails on the S&P.

Nifty Hourly Chart:

Nifty showed a strong directional move with moderate volumes from past 2 days. It would have been nicer if the volumes were a bit more than previous sideways movement to confirm this as a strong trend reversal signal. However, it is still wait and watch for mid-term long positions.

For tomorrow, Nifty might see resistance at 4280-4290 or along the yellow dotted-line marked in the above chart. Above that, the next resistance is at 4360-4390 levels.

On the lower side, Nifty may take support at 4130-4120 levels, below that at 4055 levels