TECH_SPEAK: NEWSLETTER

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View:

As i had mentioned in the very first update about the Head and Shoulders pattern had mentioned there always remain a possibility of testing the neckline before going further in the crack.

It seems index is going towards a similar move now. Generally many late shorters are bound to get trapped in this testing and thats the reason we have been waiting and watching then to be pre-empting the breakdown.

Now it needs to be seen how Sensex reacts around 14200-14500. Speculative traders can also go short in that range with small stops. A move above 14900-15100 would only negate the Head and Shoulders pattern.

On the candles we have seen a classic doji /morning star on daily charts as well as the short term trendline for a down channel holding the lows. This does point to a possible test of neckline before the next move starts.

Strategy should be to trade for extrem

e short term which can be either on Long side or short side with strict stoplosses.

Stocks to watchout for :

All the pullback stocks rocked though a gap up may not have given opportunity to catch all 4. Day trading does require a big heart.

Infosys

The stock has many resistances around 1835-1855 band in short term with lot of previous resistances in the same range. Traders can look for intra-reactions from that range and short with a small 10-20 point stop.

TCS

The stock has crossed near term resistances at 405. The stock can inch up to 420/435 in short term.

Very huge volumes and speculative interest seen in Webel Solar. Speculative tgt 220-260 in short term. Only for high risk traders.

JUST A LIL OBSERVATION :

As i have been mentioning in my previous

how people kept asking me about lot of buying calls before and around budget. One of the other speculation majority were taking was buying some rail impacted budget stocks .... Kalindee , Texmaco , Titagarh wagons , Kernex . The stocks saw lot of built up much before budget and was dumped even after good things coming ............ Why SO - Well markets anticipate and discount much before and is supreme.... End result many dumb speculators trapped !!

Check the chart above of Kalindee Rail Nirman. Similar pattern in others.

MY CHART

Nifty :: Short covering with low volume pull beck rally.. Be careful in buying. Nifty enter in strong resistance zone, and few points away from H&S break down level.. Still short term momentum is up but revise your stop loss in profit..Watch strong resistance zone 4184 to 4210.. Our strategy for 15th July once Nifty cross 4135 buy in deep (S.L 4080) sell at high (S.L 4210).. If Nifty move up and enter in strong resistance zone then sell at high (S.L 4210) buy on deep (S.L 4080).. Resistance for up move at 4135/4143/ 4184/4190/4210.. Supports at 4080/4063/4027/4000/3974..

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on gap-down on weak global cues and close with negative zones. On the daily charts nifty had form narrow range body formation which suggest indecisiveness at current levels. We can see small pullback around 4047 zone on the other side 3935-3889 zone will act as support zones .

(S S Cheema)

I love us – Indians. There seems to be no normal way to do the things. It goes without saying that the bounce was expected – but then like everything Indian – we tend to overdo. Sell like the heavens are falling and buy like there is no tomorrow. And yes the markets went overboard. Now the markets being what they are and and what they did – I have another question – the preliminary data that has come regarding the FIIs and DIIs is what is given on the the left – you mean to say that we have gone up 150 odd points on 87.23 Cr of FII and 200.29 Cr of DII buying? Smells like a fish? Yeah the fish may turn out to be the retail – you and me kind who would have just jumped in like there is no tomorrow. GOD bless us all for getting ready for FIIs and DIIs to cull us. Mind you the Global cues are not what they were like yesterday. Infact so much so that there was a bright chance that after the economic data came out yesterday – the US would slip in the red.

Without wasting any more time let us come on to the global cues. Europe opened flat and after a lot of see – saw closed green with good gains. FTSE was up 0.85%, DAX was up 1.26% and CAC was up by 0.98%. The economic data out of US was mixed to say the least. Goldman Sachs and Johnson and Johnson reported better than expected results. Infact the Goldman Sachs results were impressive – in Bloomberg’s words. Dow was up 0.33%, Nasdaq up 0.36% and S&P up 0.53%. In Asia only Nikkei has opened and is just about 0.31% in green. In another prominent news – China’s reserves have reached a record 2.132 Trillion.

On the candle sticks there was a big white candle yesterday. We seems to be off to the middle of the Bollinger band today if all goes well. The markets have closed after adjustment above the 50 EMA though the 3 EMA line still trails below it. The volumes were less than the last 25 and 50 day moving average on the NSE. ADX still remains bearish and the bulls are likely to give it a go – before the bears are technically more stronger than what they are now. MACD divergence is still negative – but reduced somewhat. RSI is bearish with and attempt to recovery. I had expected the recovery as the Slow Stochastic were oversold and that has happened and they had turned bullish yesterday. The Slow Stochastic has the capacity to take the markets green today too. TRIX is still bearish.

The biggest traded volumes on Nifty were – in descending order are Reliance, ABAN, ICICIBank, Suzlon, DLF, AXIS Bank, Unitech. These had the biggest traded volumes on nifty and I am going to present you the Put call ratio for all these – have a look. Yes there is a Put build up but still not the kind that can perhaps help the markets recover – atleast as of now.

Best of luck to everyone for today’s trading and I will introspect as to why I have let the profits on my position drop from 10 k to 3.5k. Should I have had some other stoploss? and if so – what system should I base it on? As of now I am only following 315 Strategy. Ideas are welcome.

Ser No	Stock/Index	Sold / Bought at	Last Closing	Notional Profit/Loss	Stoploss	Remarks
1.	Nifty	- 50 (4185)	4111	+3700	4207/4202	Since I expect the markets to go to max of 4200 levels the stoploss can be kept another 25 points above so that it does not get triggered.
2.	Reliance					Not initiated
3.	Nifty Call					Looking forward to selling Nifty call, strike 4200 when nifty crosses 4150.

Yesterday market open gapup for 60 points and the market bounced from the lowerlevels the nifty will bullish for above 4120 trade this levels. And the nifty will close above 4100 levels. Today the nifty will also open huge uptrend for 30 to 40 points and the nifty will go 4140,4160,4180 to 4220 level only this is the global markets rally also the indian market's continued this rally. Andalso profit booking in short's the market's short covering the nifty will go further uptrend for 4180 to 4220 level only its technical rally only. Again the market will come downside for 4020 to 3920 levels. The nifty again downside for the support's for 4080,4060,4020 to 3980 levels. Plz every trade use SL.

Nifty Spot

R-4071/4170/4226.
S-4015/3916/3860.

Nifty Fut

R-4096/4175/4213.
S-4057/3980/3940.

Sensex

R-13770/13992/14130.
S-13635/13411/13275.

Yesterday our sell call not active. But Buy call all target's achived. Today Nifty buy abv 4100 SL 4060 tgt's 4120,4130,4150,4170,4190 to 4220. Nifty Sell below 4060 SL 4100 tgt 4050,4040,4020,4000 to 3980 levels.

(Ilango)

Nifty has two options running as discussed few weeks ago and the same is playing out. This dilemma is not restricted to Indian markets but a worldwide doubt. Everyone is looking at everyone else. But it will manifest in the prices sooner.

Daily has turned up but the momentum will come only on a close above "Day high ema". Note how Nifty stopped just @ the day High ema @ 4130.

4125-4150 is a resistance zone & 4040-4080 support zone.

Hourly line chart is not conclusive but closer to the channel bottom..a break out of the channel will confirm a upside breakout. 4150-4250 resistance area..

Hourly D'Mark suggests of a move to higher levels...

(pankaj564)

based on rsi trendline support i had discussed yesterday and with help of +ve global markets we have seen good upmove in our markets.since we are correcting with Head n Shoulder pattern this upmove can be strongly resisted at neck line whenever we reach there in coming days.

more over we have seen break out from a falling wedge today as shown in chart and this give target of apprx 14400.

this upmove can be used for trading only with strict stop losses.

Daily Chart

Half Hourly Chart

The Nifty broke out of the falling wedge giving us the anticipated pullback. Yesterday's hammer proved bullish and was confirmed by today's huge white candle. Advance Declines improved considerably but volumes were not very impressive.

Intraday charts

Moving averages are all bullishly aligned once again except the 20 and 50 period. However all the moving averages are below the 200ema reminding us not to go gungho about the rise.
Oscillators are looking strong and reaching overbought levels.

Daily Charts

Bullish candle confirming hammer pattern.
Stochastics in buy mode from oversold region. RSI 14 taken support at levels maintained since October 2008 and Macd at levels since January 2009.
Moving in a downward sloping channel, a breakout from which would be very bullish. Resistance for tomorrow is at 4380 and support at 3938.
4190-4212 will be very strong resistance where we have the neckline and the 38.2% retracement level of fall till 3916.
Moving averages are bearishly aligned .

The view from above analysis would be that this is a pull back till we have more evidence of bullishness. Till then have a strict stop loss of the hammer's low of 3916 on longs.

(SVShah)

Results In US Markets Of GOLDMAN , JPMORGAN , CITI , DELL & GOOGLE Are Estimated To Be Positive.

NIFTY (4111.4)

Resistance : 4145 / 4170 / / 4210 / 4235

Support : 4070 / 4015 / 3960 / 3920

SENSEX (13854)

Resistance : 13935 / 14040 / 14160 / 14225

Support : 13650/ 13535 / 13320 / 13215

NIFTY FUT (4113) : 4145/65 Is An Important Resistance Levels To Watch.

Resistance : 4160 / 4205 / 4275

Support : 4040 / 3975 / 3925

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI flat with 5% increasing volumes indicating not only short covering plus forming of long positions for BTST.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

On Wednesday,Opening Is Flat To Up,

Buy NIFTY Above 4095,Sl 4075,Tgt 4125/45/75/4220

Sell NIFTY Below 4070,Sl 4090,Tgt 4040/10 /3960/15

BUY

JPASS,Sl 189,Tgt 195/200/205

SESAGOA,Sl 190,Tgt 200/05/10

POWERGRID,Sl 100,Tgt 110

TATAMOTOR,Tgt 300/05

DISHTV Above 32,Sl 29,Tgt 36/38/40

STERBIO Above 100,Sl 95,Tgt 110/15/20

SBIN (1583),Sl Below 1565,Tgt 1595/1605/15

MCLEOD Above 125,Sl 120

ITC Above 215,Sl 210,Tgt 220/25/30

BOB

Buy Above 395,Sl 390,Tgt 400/05/10

Sell Below 390,Sl 395,Tgt 385/80/75

SINTEX

Buy Above 185,Sl 180,Tgt 190/95

Sell Below 180,Sl 185,Tgt 175/70

L&T

Buy Above 1375,Sl 1365,Tgt 1385/95/1405/15

Sell Below 1360,Sl 1370,Tgt 1350/40/30/20

ONGC

Buy Above 1005,Sl 995,Tgt 1015/25/35

Sell Below 995,Sl 1005,Tgt 985/75/65

M&M

Buy Above 710,Sl 700,Tgt 720/25/30

Sell Below 700,Sl 710,Tgt 690/85/80

SIEMENS

Buy Above 400,Sl 395,Tgt 405/10/15/25

Sell Below 395,Sl 400,Tgt 390/85/80/75

FUTURES

Sell BHEL (2047)@ 2080/90,Sl 2110,Tgt 2065/55/45/35

Sell RELINFRA (1054)@ 1080/90,Sl 1100,Tgt 1060/50/40/30

BAJAJ HINDUSTAN :-Bajaj Hindusthan has announced that the net proceeds from issue of 3,54,50,000 equity shares of the face value of Re 1 each at a price of Rs 204/- per share to QIBs under the recent QIP accomplished by the Company have been utilized in full for repayment / prepayment of working capital in accordance with the terms of the issue, resulting into reduction in the indebtedness of the Company by approx Rs 710 crore.

HDFC BANK :- The Bank has posted a net profit of Rs 6061.10 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2009 as compared to Rs 4643.50 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2008. Total Income has increased from Rs 42151.50 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 to Rs 51367.50 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2009.

SINTEX INDS :- The Group has posted a net profit of Rs 605.887 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2009 as compared to Rs 564.771 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2008. Total Income has decreased from Rs 7528.536 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2008 to Rs 6982.848 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2009.

ABB :- ABB has won orders worth Rs 1410 million from Maharashtra State Electricity Transmission Company (MSETCL) for substations to help improve the efficiency and reliability of the state's network. The 220kv and 132kV substations will be located in the Nashik, Amravati and Nagpur zones of the western Indiain state of Maharashtra, and are an integral part of MSETCL's efforts to reduce transmission and distribution losses.

ABAN OFFSHORE :- Aban Offshore has announced that the equity shares originally issued by the erstwhile M/s. Hitech Drilling Services India Limited (Hitech) for which the final call notice was made on 28.09.1991. Hitech was subsequently merged with Aban Offshore Ltd. (formerly Aban Loyd Chiles Offshore Ltd.) (Aban) and 2 equity shares of Rs 10/- each of which Rs 5/- per share was paid-up were Issued for every 5 partly paid up equity shares held in Hitech. Subsequently each equity share of the face value of Rs 10/- per share was split into 5 shares of Rs 2/- per share. The Partly paid equity shares of Rs 10/- each in which Rs 5/- per share were paid up were consequently split into 5 Partly paid up equity shares of Rs 2/- per share of which Re 1/- per share was paid up. The members holding partly paid shares in Aban be and are hereby advised to pay the balance amount of Re 1/- per share towards face value and interest @18% p.a from 5.11.1991 as per the Final call Notice dated 28.09.1991 issued by Hitech.

STOCK VIEW

NIFTY ON THE DAILY CHARTS HAD FORMED A HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN NOW THE PULL BACK CAN TAKE IT BACK TILL 4240 AND IF UNABLE TO SUSTAIN CAN RESULT IN A DOWN SLIDE..THIS IS BEING MARKETED BY ALMOST EVERY ONE IN THE MEDIA . EVEN THE ECONIMIC TIMES WEEKLY INVESTOR PAGE ALSO INDICATED THE SAME VIEW.BUT WHAT IS NOT BEING MARKETED IS THAT NIFTY SPOT IN THE WEEKLY CHARTS IS ALSO LIKELY TO FORM A INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN..MEANS THAT IF NOW NIFTY IS ABLE TO SUSATIN ABOVE 4300 FOR A WEEK IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT WE MAY SEE A NEW TOP ABOVE 4693 AND ALSO NIFTY ATTEMPTING 5000+.SO LETS HOPE FOR THE BEST............

Above is the Daily chart of Nifty Futures. Today nifty moved up showing bullishness in price pattern, but volumes are not surging in this good up move. So going for keeping strict stoploss for swing longs.

Above is the Hourly chart of Nifty Futures. Today it stopped exactly at the second Resistance level.

On the higher side Nifty may take minor resistance at 4140 levels as it is the Gap opening level, after that it may go up to 4200/20 levels. Above which it can go up to 4280 levels.

On the lower side yesterday's gap levels of 4025-3990 may give good support for today.

On Tuesday markets opened sharply higher with huge gap up on the back of strong cues from the Global markets.

After a strong opening markets markets witnessed buying coming in across all the sectors after the forecast of strong rainfall.

Further positive opening of the European markets boosted up the sentiments and markets extended its days gains to close higher at a strong note.

If the monsoon fails to deliver the adequate rainfall then investors may use any upside to off load their long positions or may go short to drag the markets down.

3967 will prove to be the crucial support level for the Nifty, if it gets broken on closing basis then it can be the beginning of bear trend in the market again and the markets may witness 3200—3300 levels once again but may not be able to breach 3142 level this time, but above 3967 level bulls may take the charge any time to take the market to 4400 levels.

Nifty finally closed at 4111.40 gaining 137 points or 3.46 % on positive side.

Trading Strategy for 15th July, 2009

Intraday Support for the market shall be 4058 & 4013.

While the market will experience resistance at 4146 & 4183.

Best Strategy shall be to:-

Buy above 4132 with Stop Loss of 4088 and

Sell below 4088 with Stop Loss of 4132.

Intraday Call & Playing the Trend Trading Strategy for 15th July, 2009

If Nifty Trades above 4132 then Buy

HERO HONDA
Buy above 1409 with Stop Loss of 1392
For Target 1437 –1451

NTPC
Buy above 196 with Stop Loss of 193
For Target 199 –203

AXIS BANK
Buy above 767 with Stop Loss of 759
For Target 781 –788