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MY CHART

Nifty :: Give Engulfing bearish candle pattern conformation with Body Gap Down Hangman candle.. Extreme high volatility generate high volume.. Now for farther up move strength, Nifty must be close above 5080/5203.. Till then buying at lower level suggest Nifty may be formed constricting triangle in coming day’s as A-B-C-D-E.. Down leg D may be running with zigzag and once again came down within one or two days, after completion of D once again Nifty move up for last and final leg E to complete this pattern.. Our strategy for 30th Nov. If Nifty move down and hold support 4914 buy in deep (S.L 4893) sell at high (S.L 5052) .. If Nifty open gap up, change strategy as sell at high in between 4988 to 5052 (S.L 5052) buy in deep (S.L 4914).. Resistance for up move at 4972/4988/ 5014/5052/ 5110.. Supports at 4932/4914/4893..

 

 

(1) S&P 500 Chart For Coming Day's ::

from MY CHARTS FOR INDIAN STOCK MARKET by MY CHART

S&P 500 :: In weekly chart, S&P 500 treading near vary crucial juncture. Exactly in 50 % of Price and Time target zone. Formed like bearish Gartley pattern… If this structure works then we see breakdown of red rising trend line and sharp fall in next 3 to 5 week. May be this sharp fall start from next week and reach 840 to 790 price target in coming day’s.. Till then wait and watch, stay away, watch carefully 50% of Price and Time target zone.. Remember this chart pattern we plot in weekly chart so be passion and watch weekly close for any directional action.. If weekly close above 50% then buy,(risk reward ratio is vary high in buying), if weekly close below red rising trend line then sell..

 

Present Sugar Mill Status

U.P. sugar mills and U.P. farmers, are learnt to have reached a settlement with regard to sugarcane price. It has now been fixed between Rs. 190 to Rs. 195 per quintal. This will greatly benefit the sugar mills in U.P in particular and all sugar mills across the country, in general.

U.P. mills, in season 08-09 last year, had a recovery between 9% to 9.40%, which is likely to be , on an average, above 10% for season 09-10. Considering this and presuming sugarcane price at Rs. 195 per quintal and adding cost of Rs. 20 for harvesting, labour, transport and society charges, net cost of sugarcane to the mills would be Rs. 215 per quintal. Assuming a recovery of 10%, net cost of sugarcane would be Rs. 21.50 per kg. Add cost of processing and conversion, of Rs. 4.50 per kg. to this, would give a net cot of Rs. 26 per kg of sugar produced.

However, government has increased levy portion from this season, from 10% to 20% and is yet to announce the levy sugar price. Assuming it to be likely at Rs. 16 per kg, the mills will incur a loss of Rs. 10 per kg., on levy sugar to be sold by them. So, this loss would result in an average of Rs. 2.50 per kg on free sale component of 80% which would get loaded on cost of Rs. 26 per kg. This would result in a total cost of Rs. 28.50 per kg. for free sale and adding 50 paise per kg., for contingencies the final cost of free sale sugar to mills would be Rs. 29 per kg. In view of mills selling sugar at Rs.33 per kg on ex-mill, it will give them a net margin of Rs. 4 per kg.

Apart from this, on crushing 100 kg of sugarcane, mills get 4.50 kg of molasses and 18 kg of baggarse (30 kg is generated while 12 kg is used for captive co-gen use for power generation.) is generated. This results in a net realisation of over Rs. 50 per quintal, thus translating into a net gain of Rs. 5 per kg of sugar produced.

So on net basis, sugar mills can have a margin of Rs. 9 per kg on sugar produced. Also, sugarcane price of Rs. 195 in U.P. is comparable with that of Karnataka, which is at Rs. 230 per quintal, as recovery in Karnataka is over 11.50%. Even in Tamil Nadu, which has a recovery of close to 10%, are paying a price of Rs. 200 per quintal, for sugarcane. So, U.P. mills are now at par with all other mills operating in other parts of the country.

Season 09-10 is estimated to see a production of 150 lakh tonnes of sugar. Considering domestic consumption of 230 lakh tonnes and opening stock of 20 lakh tonnes, the country would be requiring to import 60 lakh tonnes of sugar. In view of advantages of southern mills located near the ports, they will be able to import larger part of raw sugar and process it.

Steps From Government

However in U.P, state government has put a ban on processing of raw sugar for the time being, which may get lifted soon, in view of farmers agitation getting resolved. But for any political reasons, if this lifting gets delayed, we may not be able to see significant quantity of raw getting processed by U.P. mills, as same can be done only when the season is on and in the equal quantity. This delay may also see incapability of all mills put together in the country to process 60 lakh tonnes of raw, during season 09-10.

Conclusion

Considering this, all the sugar mills are going to see record margin in their operations for this year, something which they have never seen in their lifetime. Hence, sugar stocks are likely to become sweeter, post settlement of sugarcane price in U.P. by mills with farmers.

 

About The Company

Bajaj Auto is of the leading company in two wheeler automobile industry. The Stock has been fairly fancied among the investors as well as traders in Indian Domestic Market.

In the 100-cc segment, Hero Honda remains the market leader with a 80% market share but Bajaj Auto is soon gaining some edge. In the Pulsar it has a 50% market share. The aim in FY10 is to improve market share on the back of high profits.

About The Results

Its performance of Q1 was an indication of what to expect from the company this fiscal. And in Q2, the company has continued with its winning trail, posting its highest ever quarterly net profit at Rs.403 crore, up by a whopping 117% on a YoY. The strategy of Rajiv Bajaj to concentrate more on high-end and premium bikes seems to be paying off. It is the launch of new bikes which has driven up the volumes. It sold 686,727 units in the quarter, up 7% on a YoY. Of this, exports made up 224,334 units, up 8%. Net sales increased 14.62% to Rs.2,887.51 crore. The company had launched its new Discover 100-cc bike in mid-July and this has been its main winner, selling 160,000 units since then.

Another major driver was the rise in exports. It exported 81,000 units in September and it hopes to exceed the annual target of 800,000 in FY10. Given the background of stronger rupee, it may be some cause for concern.

Lower raw material costs were a big contributor to the improved profit margins but in the coming months, the rising cost on metals could put some pressure on the margins. But the company is hoping to offset this rise in the costs by cutting down on marketing and advertising costs. The company expects a 50% rise in volume in the coming second half and this, it expects, would help offset any material cost increase.

About The Stock

My personal opinion on this stock with regard to its’ price performance in short to long term on basis of Fundamental analysis , Technical analysis and exclusive multi bagger reliable news sources are exclusively reserved for the registered member with detailing of the same. Only registered member have right to email me mentioning the name and date of registration to ask for the same.
Disclosure : I do not feel any need of giving any disclosure over here , my personal portfolio are always shared with the members.

BUY DIVIS LAB ABOVE 615 SL 572 FOR THE TGT OF 680-710 & BUY RANBAXY ABOVE 450 SL 415 FOR THE TGT 535-550.

NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4695-4650 AND RESISTANCE AT 5105-5180 .

LAST WEEK CALL: OUT OF 14 CALLS 3STOCKS FAILED TO MOVE ABOVE THE LEVELS , 3 STOCKS HIT STOP LOSS AND 3 STOCKS HIT THE 1ST TGTS AND 5 STOCKS HIT THE 2ND TGT.

RECOMMENDED ON 141109: PRISM CEMENT HIT THE FIRST TGT TV -18 SL HIT IDEA STILL OPEN.

Bears have got the news they wanted but is it good enough. Dip Buyers on Friday think otherwise. We are in for interesting market action where conflict between bulls and bears is only going to intensify.

Market Observations

1. The big question on everyone’s mind right now: Could Dubai World be this year’s “Lehman Brothers” event?
2. Broad trends in financial market are not created by events, but by shifts in social mood. Are we about to witness shift in mood or Is it too early to say anything?
3. Despite early morning panic in Indian market on Friday morning, dip buyers/DIIs showed amazing resilience and took the market up from 4820-4830 levels to 4950 levels.
4. Message: Bulls need more proof before they can give up on this market. The burden of proof lies with the bears. Based on Friday’s trading action - you can best be cautious but certainly not bearish.
5. Challenge: The challenge for stock investors globally is whether to pocket more of the current year’s gains or ride it out in hopes of a Santa Claus rally
6. GDP Day: Today, Indian Government will release second quarter GDP report. The expectation : 6.1 to 6.3% growth last quarter
7. Today is last day of November. Month to Date, Nifty is up 4.8%.
8. Damaged Technicals: Despite smart pullback on Friday, Nifty closed below 50 dma of 4971.
9. Friday was a heavy volume day in futures market. FIIs net sold Rs. 770 crores worth of Nifty futures; and net bought Rs. 165 crores worth of stock futures.
10. Healthcare seems to be a safe sector now-a-days. The sector is up 8% this month and it seems both fundamentals + defensive nature of the sector may help this sector even if there is turbulent December for equity markets.
11. Two stocks to keep an eye on - Sun Pharma and Glenmark Pharma.
12. Food Inflation has soared to 15.6%. This is really cause for concern.
13. Impact: There has been supply shortage in cement as the government has prioritised the allotment of railway wagons for food grains and fertilisers. This has led to price rise in cement and as a result - cement stocks rallied last week. [Temporary price rise]
14. Crude Oil is on decline in Global market. It closed at USD 76 on Friday. If it weakens further -it will be good news for Indian OMCs like HPCL and BPCL.
15. Financial history shows that if you owe your bank a hundred dollars, you have a problem. But if you owe your bank a million dollars, the bank has problems. Dubai World debt burden has highlighted this problem again
16. Among Indian banks - Bank of Baroda has maximum exposure to UAE. The stock is avoid right now. On Friday, stock lost 5% and clocked 5x volumes of 10 day ma volume.
17. Two more reasons why one should avoid Telecom sector - i. 1 paisa SMS launch by RCOM; and ii. Mobile Number portability implementation.
18. Will Telecom stocks follow Indonesia example? - The price war in Indonesia lasted 2 years, during which the mobile market leader Telkom lost 60% of its market cap on pricing concerns. However, Telkom stock recovered 51% from its stock price lows thereafter as tariff declines slowed. [Remember, it lasted two years...so it's too early to call]
19. Suzlon: I wrote on Suzlon last week as the stock in conflict zone. On Friday, stock was up 6%. Technically, it’s a bullish sign as stock has bounced from 20 dma of 68.5
20. If you own nothing and you’re trying to build up your portfolio, a sell off is a gift…Jim Cramer
21. Traders should always have a plan - A good plan is like a road map: It shows the final destination and usually the best way to get there. It also includes what a trader should do if he gets lost on the way. 
22.  
23. 
    
    There is never one cockroach in the closet. If you see one running across the room, that means there are many more in the walls and behind the counters.
    It means bad news often leads to more bad news. The term comes from the common belief that seeing one cockroach is usually evidence that there are many more that remain hidden. Dubai World debt problem disclosure may just be the beginning of bad news flow.
    I know lots of people may say what has Dubai World problem to do with us. Well, remember - it is the money (liquidity) that takes the market up or down. If fresh concerns emerge - it is bound to have an impact on liquidity and risk perception.
    
    What happened?
    On Wednesday, 25 November, the government of Dubai said that its investment holding company, Dubai World, which owns a vast portfolio of businesses worldwide, is being “restructured” with immediate effect. The objective of the restructuring is to “address financial obligations” and “ensure the continuity” of the company’s operations. The government also announced that it will ask all creditors of Dubai World to agree to a debt “standstill” during the restructuring and to extend maturities to “at least 30 May.”
    What does it mean?- A potential default. The shock element is huge because the Government of Dubai is the owner of Dubai World. Dubai World accounts for USD 59 bn of Dubai’s total government obligations of USD 80 bn. The news definitely has increased the uncertainty in global markets, serious near term disruptions in credit market…and has opened up possibilities for rumours in days and weeks to come till clarity emerges
    How will the news impact our market?
    Extreme volatility and choppiness. What is going to make life difficult - choppy moves. It is easier to trade when market makes a directional move either up or down. But things become complex - when market moves in choppy fashion. Since, the broader set up is bullish - BUY the dips crowd will be active like we saw on Friday…but will those gain stick is highly doubtful.
    
    Source: ChartAlert (www.chartalert.com)
    This is the time to stay on sidelines till clarity or more cockroaches emerge. Positional trades in current market environment are likely to get chopped out.
    What about money on sidelines
    Liquidity is a coward, when you need her most she runs away and hides.
    
    (A K Prabhakar)
    
    
    

    
    

    Nifty-4941-Monthly Graph
    

    
    

    Indian market has been in a trading range of 4600-5100 in the last 6months including November 2009, and anyone who was short or long in the index by averaging would have made money both sides and Index which was moving sharply for a V-Shape recovery has failed to proceed and now if a channel is drawn support comes near 4270 and 8Month EMA is 4518 and any up-move 5225 & 5500 can be a strong resistance and till March end of 2010 I don’t see any big chance of Nifty crossing 5600 which makes Risk more than the reward.
    

    
    

    Sensex-16632
    

    Sensex has Gaped-down and marked low in 14trading days and last 2days of trade has seen higher volumes and failing to move above 16815 would suggest weakness is market and below 16200 possibility of making lower low below 15330 arise.
    

    
    

    Graph of Monthly shows that V-Shape rally is now can become W-Shape also.
    

    
    

    FIIs have been sellers from 20^th November in market as per NSE website which indicate secondary market and which normally indicates year end pressure and
    

    India’s export to UAE & U.S forms 24.5% of total exports and Remittance from both countries can be as high as 45%.
    

    Indian Remittance is very important foreign exchange earner and construction workers in Dubai and Gulf region form a major rural income from expatriates, so only whenever Crude moves higher Indian Market has always gone that way. India has highest remittance in the world as per IMF data and already we face problem in U.S with U.S Two US senators having introduced a legislation seeking to prohibit companies that lay off large number of American workers, from subsequently hiring temporary workers (such as tech professionals) from outside the US. The proposed ‘Employ America Act’, if passed, could severely hit tech companies that had resorted to axing jobs during the economic downturn even as they continued to file for H-1B visas. The IT industry has expressed concern over the proposed legislation given its ramifications on businesses. But industry watchers also point out that the possibility of the new legislation being passed on a standalone basis may be somewhat low at a time when the US is slated to look at comprehensive immigration reform next year.
    

    Mobius Says Dubai May Trigger Markets ‘Correction’ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYSFV6DTmk08
    

    v  Globally the Us Dollar Index is nearing a crucial resistance area of 76, which if crossed can lead to a significant rally in the greenbuck.
    

    v  Indian GDP data on 30^th November and India Export & Import data for October will be announced on 1^st December will be keenly watched.
    

    
    

    To remind Posted on Friday 16^th October 2009 http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2009/10/happy-diwali-happy-investing.html
    

    What about this Diwali?
    

    This time around I am not so bullish about the market so we would keep the picks simple. HOTELLEELA, CASTROL, MUNDRAPORT, TATATEA, NTPC, 3IINFO, IGL, GAIL, HINDUNILVR, IFCI would be my bets which look good from 1 year perspective till 2010Diwali. Accumulate in dips. Happy Diwali and Happy Investing!!!

     

    
    

    AS PREDICTED NIFTY CUT 20 EMA AND WELL 50 EMA
    AND TAKEN SUPPORT @ 70 EMA @ 4827.16 AND REVERESED
    WELL AS FRIDAY REVERSAL { AS TOLD HERE
    

    : - FRIDAY REVERSAL } HAPPENED WHICH IS GIVEN STRAIGHT
    
    

    140 POINTS UP AS PER TIME ANALYSIS AND ALSO HAPPEND IN TREND
    CHANGING TIME , NOW SUPPORT SEEN 4920 FOR POSITIONAL BECOZ TRIPLE
    BOTTOM FORMATION HAPPENED @ THIS LEVEL IN CLOSING LEVELS,IF THIS BREAKS
    IN CLOSING , GATES OPEN FOR BIG CORRECTION AS ALL EXPECTING ON DUBAI CRISIS
    IN THE SAME WAY BROKEN DOWN SIDE RESISTANCE LINE SHOWING NO MORE UPSIDE LEFT AS TOLD ALREADY 5050 BELOW EXIT IN ALL LONGS , THE RECOVERY SEEN IN FRIDAY SHOWING THAT SOME CONSOLIDATION CAN TAKE PLACE IN THIS WEEK ON DUBAI CRISIS, LET US SEE WHAT HAPPENS
    

    As mentioned on last sundday, i.e on 22nd Nov,  - on the predicted reversal day of 23rd Nov, Monday, Market has seen a high first and then saw a correction.
    

    - Again on next mentioned reversal day of last Friday .i.e. on 27th Nov, market has seen a low, and then a strong uptrend
    

    
    

    
    

    NEXT REVERSAL DAY :- WEDNESDAY i.e., 2nd DECEMBER IS LIKELY TO BE NEXT REVERSAL DAY FOR THIS WEEK , EITHER A HIGH OR LOW ON THIS DAY AND THEN CAN REVERSE THE EARLIER TREND ; NEXT FRIDAY ( 4TH DEC) IS LIKELY TO BE THE NEXT REVERSAL DAY
    

    
    

    
    

    TREND CHANING TIMINGS ARE 11.35 AND 2 PM FOR FRIDAY TRADING
    AND YOU CAN SEE IN BOTH TIMING NIFTY TRADED @ 4863 EXACTLY
    AND IN BETWEEN THESE TWO TIMINGS FORMED A SAUCER FORMATION
    FOR AN UPMOVE IMMEDIATELY TO HIGHER LEVELS
    

    What happen on friday and what will happen for today ,click on charts to know more
    

    
    

    
    

    
    

    
    

    
    

    
    

    
    

    
    

    FOR TREND CHANGING TIMINGS WILL UPDATE IN CHAT BOX IN LIVE MARKETS
    

    
    
     
    
     

 

(Ilango)

Nifty has played two fractals of "Day" in the "Hour" time frame to near perfection and is in the process of playing the "Third" one now(All three marked in Red, Blue & Pink).
If this third also plays to perfection, Nifty could scale 5050++ easily and then fall sharply in the next 3-4 days. Position yourself accordingly.

 

NEWSLETTER

(Nooresh Merani)

Sensex Technical View :

After moving up very quickly the index seems to be taking a breather. Support levels for the near term are 16750/16300.

The quick upmove from 15300 levels has surprised lot many on the street. After such a rise its needed that index sees a corrective move and consolidates for some time.

Near term if 16750 holds we could see a small bounce but a move to 16300/16600 is still a good probability.

Cant stop writing .... :) ... Back on a break 

 

MY CHART

Nifty :: Long Belt Hold line with bearish Engulfing line candle pattern, like Body Reversal of previous bullish trend.. Match two bearish pattern first one is Hangman second one is Engulfing line with channel breakdown… As routine in red candle volume once again increase.. Momentum already turns bearish at least for short term, now any up move 5045 to 5080 zone works as strong resistance.. For 27th Nov. watch strong support zone 4936 to 4906.. May be bulls once again try to hold this support in intraday if Nifty open gap down.. Our strategy for 27th Nov. Sell at high (S.L 5054) buy in deep (S.L 4906).. Resistance for up move at 5016/5045/5054/5080.. Supports at 4957/4936/4920/ 4906/ 5883/5860..

 

Weak global cues and F&O expiry saw a selloff today and the market ended weak. But it clocked huge volumes, the second highest market turnover and highest ever F&O turnover at Rs 1.59 lakh crore. Sensex shut shop at 16854, down 344 points and Nifty at 5005, down 102 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was down 1.21% and BSE Smallcap index was down 0.98%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 320 against declines of 957 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included Ranbaxy, Sun Pharma while losers were Tata Power, RIL, ICICI Bank and Reliance Capital.


The market did open flat to positive let by global cues and seen a profit booking session again from higher side,with nifty failed to cross its major hurdle of week of 5110-20 range as advised by me many times and as expected we seen a decent selling and profit booking at the last day of the F and O settlement with a highest volume.Market is seems to be toped out for the very short term and it looks like that the worst is not yet done and another selling is expected as long as we maintain below 5030-5050 range on close to close basis.Still A caution is highly advised now on every rise as I expected a selling or profit booking now any time,A close on Friday below 4985-75 will lead another selling pressure for at least 100-250 points downfall. Overall strength is negative in the market now.






NIFTY (5005.55)
Resistance : 5035 / 5085 / 5125 / 5165
Support : 4955 / 4935 / 4880 / 4840


SENSEX (16854.93)
Resistance : 16915 / 17040 / 17170
Support : 16785 / 16660 / 16520 / 16460


NIFTY FUT (4992.65)
Resistance : 5025 / 5070 / 5120 / 5160
Support : 4965 / 4935 / 4885 / 4845






4915/25 Will Act As A Big Support,If Next Support@ 4880/70.
If NIFTY Closes Below 4880/70,We Are In Bearish Zone & Can Touch 4600/4500/4400++
If NIFTY Bounces Back From 4915/25,Near Term Targets Can Be 5150/5250/5350++






MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI up 13.95% with 132% increasing volumes indicating forming of short positions.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade negative with volatility.






On Friday,Opening Is Flat To Down,
Buy NIFTY Above 5045,Sl Below 5025,Tgt 5075/5095/5120/5150
Sell NIFTY Below 5020,Sl Above 5040,Tgt 4990/4970/4945/4915






BUY




RANBAXY Above 430,Sl 420,Tgt 440/450
INDIACEM Above 110,Sl 105,Tgt 115/120
IFCI,Sl 47,Tgt 54/55/56


APTECH Above 168,Sl 165,Tgt 171/173/175
ZEE Above 270,Sl 265,Tgt 275/280/285
COLGATE Above 690,Sl 685,Tgt 695/700/705/710






SELL




SAIL Below 192,Sl 195,Tgt 188/185/183/180

SCI Below 145,Sl 150,Tgt 140/135
PUNJLOYD Below 385,Sl 390,Tgt 375/370/365


SBIN (2255),Sl Above 2275,Tgt 2225/2215
PUNJLOYD Below 205,Sl 210,Tgt 200/195
   

Karuturi Global has been deriving 95 per cent of its revenues from rose exports and has been doing this business at a healthy profitable rate. While each stem is sold for 11-12 Euro cent, its cost of produce is around 7 Euro cent, a margin of around 70 on each stem of rose. Thecompany has around 550 acres under cultivation for roses which is being expanded by adding another 150 acres in the near future.

Karuturi Global is in advanced discussions with a global food-processing major to set up a 1 million tonne unit for contract farming of tomatoes.

According to industry sources, the deal is expected to be announced this quarter and will involve value addition on top of farming. Sources indicate that Karuturi may be looking at Kolar to set up the unit.

hope u enjoyed  POWER SHORT Below 5079.92 for a points of 106 profit as nifty futures 4973 low done on a expiry day,now for bulls one 20 ema is the hope which is @ 4993.96 as nifty well close above this level @5005.55 which feels bears fearful by this closing 

for tomorrow click the right side chart to know more, for ema finding click left chart : - 

In this article, I want to focus on few stock charts which are trying to tell interesting stories. Take a look

Jindal Polyfilms = Buying its own share
It seems Jindal Polyfilms is buying its own stock aggressively. Just have a look at the trading volume in last one week - it has zoomed up exponentially. The reason: Jindal Polyfilms is buying shares from Saif Li Mauritius company.

Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]
As you can see in the chart above - the stock seems ready for a trading move after a long period of low volatility. One should keep an eye on the stock.
Pratibha Ind: Institutional Interest and Buying Exhaustion
In last one week, there has been lots of institutional activity that happened on this stock; and yesterday the way stock went higher and then closed at a much lower level….smacks of buying exhaustion.

Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]
It would be interesting to watch where stock goes from here…
K Sera Sera: No Buyers
K Sera Sera is on its way down with no takers on the other side.

Source: ChartAlert [www.chartalert.com]
What is the reason? - I have no idea.
This article is based on random observation of stock charts. I hope you found it useful. As always, please note this is not a trading recommendation.
Disclaimer - The state of the market notes is Deepak’s perspective on the market. The column is purely for educational purpose. Nothing contained herein is a solicitation to trade or a recommendation of a specific trade. By reading this publication you agree to make no trade relying in whole or in part on the comments of the writers


 

 

About The Company

This stock, typically comes to the fore only during the Budget. With the Govt always expected to give sops to the agriculture sector, this is one stock which has always been a big beneficiary. But looks like the poor monsoon and the recession in international markets have played on the sequential numbers, which are clearly under pressure.

About The Financial Results

Its hi-tech agro input products, which includes micro irrigation systems, PVC piping products, tissue culture plants and agri R&D, on a QOQ has shown a 15% decline in sales. Consequently, EBIDTA on the same has come down from 26% in current Q2 to 22%. Industrial products did well and probably helped shore the margins. Revenue of IP was up 31% and EBIDTA margin was up by 1% at 21%. Overall net sales, has shown a sequential drop of 1.8%.

Apart from fall in revenue, operating expenses rose on a QoQ by 2.56%. So these two factors together pulled down the numbers. Net profit was down 23% at Rs.42.56 crore.

Drip irrigation is actually the bets method to combat a poor monsoon and with more and more states realising this, it would only go to increase business for Jain. Infact, the company which has been concentrating more in southern and western India but it is now making plans to enter central and north India. Apart from concentrating on domestic demand, the company is also looking at exports. It has invested $10 million to set up a new plant to make irrigation systems and plastic pipes in Turkey, production at which will begin this month. It is also planning to expand into Israel and U.S but no real investments for the same have been made yet.

It currently has an order book of Rs.900 crore of which majority is for micro-irrigation. It is also planning to tap Asian and Middle-east markets for selling processed food, where it already sells micro-irrigation.

About The Stock

My personal opinion on this stock with regard to its’ price performance in short to long term on basis of Fundamental analysis , Technical analysis and exclusive multi bagger reliable news sources are exclusively reserved for the registered member with detailing of the same. Only registered member have right to email me mentioning the name and date of registration to ask for the same.

Ilango)

The simple analysis has been that the fall of "5182 to 4539" retraced the earlier rise from 4577 to 5182 in quicker time signalling a reversal. As the fall was continuous without a pause or consolidation, the retracement rally was swift and it could not retrace that fall in quicker time. The move from 4539 to 5138 was in a clear "abc" pattern and the sharp reversal, expecially on the settlement day, indicates a reversal to the down move. Technicals support such a view and the global cues too.

I would look for 4838(50%) or 4860 an earlier pivot to hold for any bullish view. Looking at the way the world mkts were stretched making all the bears into bulls and then falling suddenly, especially when the $ was hitting new low, is a smart way to lull all the bulls into watching the $ moves & then dump it all in a swift way.

Our markets too suggested similarly with two days of "intra day falls" but closing firm, thereby keeping the Technicals intact(As all the TA is based on close prices) and then sliding down upto 5060 quietly & then a sharp fall yesterday.

Downside target: If 4838-4860 does not hold, then A = C would be 4495(5138 - (5182-4539=643))

Nowadays, the divergences do not result in immediate price reversals. They test your "Patience" with multiple divergences and then fall. But fall they ultimately do.

I am still of the view that after this correction which might last 10-15 days and if 4400-4500 can hold, Nifty should start on its last upmove to 5400-5500 or more. I see "the whole of trading post election results as one big consolidation". Being a big consolidation, it provides huge trading opportunities if one could identify the "reversals within" in quicker time.

"I might not be available for the first session". Wish you a safe trading.

 

NEWSLETTER

ORCHID CHEM BREAKOUT - TARGET 220

 

 

 

 

 

Today ORCHID brokeout from previous intermediate high with reasonably high volumes and more importantly it held onto the gains even in the volatile day by closing very close to day's high. However it has to sustain this breakout in the next few trading sessions by closing above 185 to qualify for next target of 220 and then 270. 

 

MY CHART

Nifty :: Even after breakout of 5113 Nifty unable to given close above it.. Due to volatility of FNO expire volume slightly up.. As far as Nifty stay above rising channel bottom 5016 momentum looks positive.. For 26th Nov. Watch one level 5113 above 5113 momentum seems up, below 5100 momentum turn down.. Our strategy for 26th if Nifty turn down watch strong support 5055/5048 and buy in deep (S.L 5048) Sell at high.. If Nifty move up above 5113 watch strong resistance zone 5137 to 5168 and sell at high near resistance (S.L 5174) buy in deep (S.L 5100).. Resistance for up move at 5137/5150/ 5160/5168/ 5174/5209.. Supports at 5078/5055/5048/5016..

 

 

About The Company

Lanco Infratech is one of the most admired and preffered stock in Infrastructure sector among the domestic and foreign investor in Indian Capital market.

In power, it currently has an operating power generation capacity of 511MW comprising two gas-based plants, two wind energy plants and one hydro power project, spread over Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh. It has at least 7,195MW of new generation capacity under various stages of execution, with secured off-take agreements and fuel linkages for half.

About The Financial Results

Lanco Infra has posted a good set of results for the second quarter ended 30th Sept 2009. That is the perception you form when looked at from a YoY angle but QoQ, there are signs of pressure.

Net sales rose 51% (YoY) at Rs.1926.50 crore but QoQ was down 12%. The biggest contributor was construction, which grew 132%, power unit which had grown 141% in Q1FY10, in current Q2 grew just 5%. Property development unit continues to show a fall and it showed a de-growth of 77% v/s 62% fall in Q1FY10. Income from power trading was at Rs.473.90 crore, up 34% on a YoY but QoQ, this income took a hit and it was down 31%.

EBITDA was up by 60% on a YoY at Rs.196.60 crore but QoQ, it slipped 29%. The company had a forex loss of Rs.19.10 crore as against gain of Rs.23.70 crore in Q1FY09. Net profit was up 98% at Rs.98.10 crore but QoQ, it was actually down 15%.

The generation at Kondapalli Power Station for the quarter increased by around 30% on YoY basis however sales realisations continues to remain down. This plant currently has a capacity of 368MW at phase 1, operating at 94% of its load factor after it started receiving natural gas from Reliance Industries. It plans to add another 366MW of capacity in two phases—233MW by October and the balance 133MW by the last quarter of fiscal 2010. It is now firming up plans to add another 750MW capacity here once it starts receiving more gas from RIL. This expansion would cost around Rs.2,625 crore, based on an estimated Rs3.5 crore/MW.

As of 30th Sept 2009, for all the project under construction, the total capex spent has been Rs.11875.90 crore of which the debt component has been Rs.8050.40 crore.The Construction and EPC order book position as on Sept 30th 2009 is Rs.14711.30 crore

It was a mildly choppy but relatively quiet day of trade as market closed in the positive despite some profit booking. Sensex shut shop at 17198, up 67 points and Nifty at 5108, up 17 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index was up 0.01% and BSE Smallcap index was down 0.16%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 546 against declines of 714 on the NSE. Top Nifty gainers included BPCL, GAIL and Hero Honda while losers were DLF, Suzlon and Unitech.

The market did open flat to positive let by global cues and seen a profit booking session again from higher side,with nifty taken support from its 5 DEMA almost placed near 5078 and ended with a marginal gain with nifty closed above its psychological 5100 level and also below 5110 which is its weekly resistance.Nifty is having a good resistance zone area near 5110-20 range and as long as it holds below this level there will be a pressure.Any sell off or profit booking if comes due to global sell off if any then nifty will crash to kiss its 20 DEMA level which is its good support level and placed around 4995,and from this level we can see another round of buying. A caution is highly advised now on every rise as I expected a selling or profit booking now any time,I don’t know the reason but anytime selling will be there,as per charts




NIFTY (5108.15)
Resistance : 5140 / 5165 / 5190
Support : 5080 / 5045 / 5000


SENSEX (17198.95)
Resistance : 17285 / 17370 / 17410
Support : 17115 / 17040


NIFTY FUT (5120.6) : For NIFTY 5070-80 Is The Key Support, If Broken With Huge Volumes Can Create A Panic
Resistance : 5145 / 5170 / 5195
Support : 5075 / 5050 / 4980






MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI (both series) up with decreasing volumes indicating forming of long positions.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile due to expiry.






On Thursday,Opening Is Flat To Positive,
Buy NIFTY Above 5110,Sl Below 5085,Tgt 5135/5160/5195
Sell NIFTY Below 5080,Sl Above 5105,Tgt 5065/5040/5005




BUY




SBIN (2322),Sl Below 2310,Tgt 2335/45+
TATAPOWER Above 1355,Sl 1335
BIRLACORP Above 315,Sl 310,Tgt 320/25/30
GESHIPP Above 290,Sl 285,Tgt 295/300


APTECH Above 170,Sl 165,Tgt 175/80
BHARTI Above 280,Sl 275,Tgt 285/90+
POLARIS Above 170,Sl 165,Tgt 175/80




SELL




TATASTEEL Below 565,Sl 570,Tgt 560/55/50/45
ZEETELE Below 265,Sl 270,Tgt 260/55
RANBAXY Below 425,Sl 430,Tgt 420/15/10

The minutes of the meeting that the Federal Open Market committee conducted recently, was published yesterday. In this report, Fed, for the first ever time has accepted the negative implications of its decision to hold the benchmark rates at near zero. Fed policy makers have commented that their decision to cut rates to zero may be fueling undue financial market speculation. The dollar weakened as investors around have been taking it for a ride as if the slide in dollar value is given to them.

The currency has slid by more than 6% against the yen in just 3 months. Fed has accepted that it is wary of fueling another asset price bubble. Last week, policy makers in China and Japan said that the low US interest rates are fueling surging prices of commodities as well as financial assets in emerging markets. The decline of the US dollar and the decision in the US not to raise rates has caused huge speculation in foreign exchange trading and global asset prices. Gold prices have touched an all time high of more than 1170 USD an ounce, days back as a slumping dollar boosted the appeal for alternate assets.

Fed policy makers at their meeting this month repeated their commitment to keep the benchmark rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period”. The US economy grew less than initially estimated last quarter as consumer spending trailed forecasts, according to a commerce department report released yesterday. The economy expanded at a 2.8% annual rate, less than the initial estimate of 3.5% pace of expansion.

The minutes report said that “Most participants are now viewing their growth forecasts as being roughly balanced rather than tilted to the downside, but uncertainty surrounding these forecasts was still viewed as elevated”. Job market not recovering is considered as one of the risks that may affect the forecasts in an adverse manner.

Fed officials trimmed their forecasts for the US jobless rate in the next 2 years. However, still the rates are higher that what 2 years ago were. Fed predicted that the rate will range from 9.3% to 9.7% in the fourth quarter of 2010. The US economy has lost almost 7.3 million jobs since the recession began in Dec 2007. The unemployment rate has rose to a 26 year high of 10.2% in the recent months. 

 

Peninsula Land Facing Resistance @ 50-Day Moving Average

• Peninsula Land is struggling to regain its 50-day moving average support line; its relative strength index continues to lag
• The stock showed plenty of sell signs, as highlighted in the chart below, before it crashed along with the general market. However unlike Peninsula Land, the general market and benchmark indexes have almost recovered to their previous levels
  

Peninsula Land Daily Chart - 24/11/2009

52 Week High: 100.90 (September 04, 2009)
52 Week Low: 15.20 (November 26, 2008)

BSE Scrip Code: 503031
BSE Scrip ID: PENINSULA
NSE Scrip ID: PENINSULA

 

 

 

"5040" is the channel support.
Below which a deeper correction possibility..