Thursday, November 12, 2009

NEWSLETTER




BEFORE -- OCTOBER 27 Chart posted on the blog -- CLICK TO GO




AFTER - Current position





Sensex Technical View :

If you see above Sensex has yet again followed the same route as we were looking at. I too get surprised by such pin point accuracy with Technical Analysis. But as a techie ( I never ask Why is the market going the way it is seen on Charts )

As a technical analyst i m never supposed to ask WHY but look for WHAT - ( that constituted the 20 min video it was all about What )

Yet another chart which i have posted is about a possible Inverted Head And Shoulders Pattern being completed with a Neckline re-test. If we do believe this pattern then the implications could be very very bullish in the next few quarters. We would definitely review it in due course of time.

In the short term Sensex should ideally face resistance at 16850 zone. Although some people may also look towards 80% retracement as a level which comes to 17k odd. But for us its simpler we bought at 15.5k and booking now half or more. The view from here on should be extremely stock specific as we may continue to see some stocks over perform in near term.


People who bought at lows will call it a Upmove or a RALLY . People who could not use it and are stuck in Shorts will call it a PULLBACK !!! ... But what does matter in the end is whether u gained out of it or not.



Stocks to watchout for :


Neyvyeli Lignite has given an excellent breakout ( Client call at 145 booked half or more till 160 ) . It seems this stock could be next on the disinvestment or something coming up. Watchout to re-enter on declines to 148-152 with a stop of 143.


Indian Hotels has given a breakout.Maintain a stoploss of 82 and hold for 95-105 in near term.Lloyds Electric has also given a breakout. Can take partial exposure in dips to 54.5-56 stop of 52 tgt 65 +.


Ranbaxy can give a further move if crosses 425. Can target 450 in near term.

Kesar Ent and EID Parry look interesting with a medium term view as technically seem to have broken out in near term. Low volumes stock and difficult to trade but take your own call. Can give 20-25% appreciation over 3-5 mths.

Sun Pharma buy around 1420 with a stop of 1390 tgt 1500-1540 or above 1460.

TCS buy around 640-644 stop of 635 tgt 655-665 in 1-3 sessions. (Disclosure : Client call already given at 640 )



Nifty :: Once again large green candle neglect bearish dark cloud candle pattern.. Volume is low compare to yesterday bearish candle.. Technically not good sign, but due to US Dollar slide all word, stock and commodity market move up and up.. Be careful at higher level still Nifty below 5053 mark.. If Nifty break 5053 we reset our last week Elliott wave count but still we stuck with our bearish structure.. Technically we didn’t see any bullish structure yet, in Nifty or Sensex chart.. Put short term strictly short stop loss at 5053 as per our last post and wait for short conformation at higher level, till then stay in side line. Our strategy for 12th Nov.. Up to 5053 sell at high (S.L 5053) buy in deep (S.L 4948).. Resistance for up move at 5033/5053/5077/5110.. Supports at 4958/4890/4880/4860 /4838….
 
India's largest sugar refiner - Shree Renuka sugars, has acquired a Brazilian cane plantation company. It acquired Vale Do Ivai SA for around 82 million USD. We had reported months back that Shree Renuka was looking at acquisitions in Brazil and the article can be accessed HERE.

The company will now be able to access around 3.1 million metric tons of annual crushing capacity in Brazil. The target company has a strong presence in the sugar producing region and it cultivates cane over 18,000 hectares of land. The purchase seems to make sense, given the fact that Indian sugar companies are left with no option but to import raw sugar at ever increasing international sugar rates.

The acquisition marks the entry of the company in to one of the largest Sugar producing regions of the world. Going beyond this acquisition, the company seems to have bigger things in mind. It plans to grow and expand production base in Brazil to enhance its presence in the sugar business on a global scale. The company is now reported to be in talks to acquire another Brazilian firm which has strong sugar and alcohol assets in Brazil.

It is to be noted that the company has accepted to take over the debts of Vale, which it is planning to repay over the next eight years. The acquisition has been approved by the leading creditors to Vale and the other formalities are expected to be complete in the next 45 days. The company is planning to make use the around 120 million USD that it raised recently by selling shares to institutions.

 
 
 
 
 

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