Nifty :: Give Engulfing bearish candle pattern conformation with Body Gap Down Hangman candle.. Extreme high volatility generate high volume.. Now for farther up move strength, Nifty must be close above 5080/5203.. Till then buying at lower level suggest Nifty may be formed constricting triangle in coming day’s as A-B-C-D-E.. Down leg D may be running with zigzag and once again came down within one or two days, after completion of D once again Nifty move up for last and final leg E to complete this pattern.. Our strategy for 30th Nov. If Nifty move down and hold support 4914 buy in deep (S.L 4893) sell at high (S.L 5052) .. If Nifty open gap up, change strategy as sell at high in between 4988 to 5052 (S.L 5052) buy in deep (S.L 4914).. Resistance for up move at 4972/4988/ 5014/5052/ 5110.. Supports at 4932/4914/4893..
(1) S&P 500 Chart For Coming Day's ::
S&P 500 :: In weekly chart, S&P 500 treading near vary crucial juncture. Exactly in 50 % of Price and Time target zone. Formed like bearish Gartley pattern… If this structure works then we see breakdown of red rising trend line and sharp fall in next 3 to 5 week. May be this sharp fall start from next week and reach 840 to 790 price target in coming day’s.. Till then wait and watch, stay away, watch carefully 50% of Price and Time target zone.. Remember this chart pattern we plot in weekly chart so be passion and watch weekly close for any directional action.. If weekly close above 50% then buy,(risk reward ratio is vary high in buying), if weekly close below red rising trend line then sell..
Present Sugar Mill Status
U.P. sugar mills and U.P. farmers, are learnt to have reached a settlement with regard to sugarcane price. It has now been fixed between Rs. 190 to Rs. 195 per quintal. This will greatly benefit the sugar mills in U.P in particular and all sugar mills across the country, in general.
U.P. mills, in season 08-09 last year, had a recovery between 9% to 9.40%, which is likely to be , on an average, above 10% for season 09-10. Considering this and presuming sugarcane price at Rs. 195 per quintal and adding cost of Rs. 20 for harvesting, labour, transport and society charges, net cost of sugarcane to the mills would be Rs. 215 per quintal. Assuming a recovery of 10%, net cost of sugarcane would be Rs. 21.50 per kg. Add cost of processing and conversion, of Rs. 4.50 per kg. to this, would give a net cot of Rs. 26 per kg of sugar produced.
However, government has increased levy portion from this season, from 10% to 20% and is yet to announce the levy sugar price. Assuming it to be likely at Rs. 16 per kg, the mills will incur a loss of Rs. 10 per kg., on levy sugar to be sold by them. So, this loss would result in an average of Rs. 2.50 per kg on free sale component of 80% which would get loaded on cost of Rs. 26 per kg. This would result in a total cost of Rs. 28.50 per kg. for free sale and adding 50 paise per kg., for contingencies the final cost of free sale sugar to mills would be Rs. 29 per kg. In view of mills selling sugar at Rs.33 per kg on ex-mill, it will give them a net margin of Rs. 4 per kg.
Apart from this, on crushing 100 kg of sugarcane, mills get 4.50 kg of molasses and 18 kg of baggarse (30 kg is generated while 12 kg is used for captive co-gen use for power generation.) is generated. This results in a net realisation of over Rs. 50 per quintal, thus translating into a net gain of Rs. 5 per kg of sugar produced.
So on net basis, sugar mills can have a margin of Rs. 9 per kg on sugar produced. Also, sugarcane price of Rs. 195 in U.P. is comparable with that of Karnataka, which is at Rs. 230 per quintal, as recovery in Karnataka is over 11.50%. Even in Tamil Nadu, which has a recovery of close to 10%, are paying a price of Rs. 200 per quintal, for sugarcane. So, U.P. mills are now at par with all other mills operating in other parts of the country.
Season 09-10 is estimated to see a production of 150 lakh tonnes of sugar. Considering domestic consumption of 230 lakh tonnes and opening stock of 20 lakh tonnes, the country would be requiring to import 60 lakh tonnes of sugar. In view of advantages of southern mills located near the ports, they will be able to import larger part of raw sugar and process it.
Steps From Government
However in U.P, state government has put a ban on processing of raw sugar for the time being, which may get lifted soon, in view of farmers agitation getting resolved. But for any political reasons, if this lifting gets delayed, we may not be able to see significant quantity of raw getting processed by U.P. mills, as same can be done only when the season is on and in the equal quantity. This delay may also see incapability of all mills put together in the country to process 60 lakh tonnes of raw, during season 09-10.
Conclusion
Considering this, all the sugar mills are going to see record margin in their operations for this year, something which they have never seen in their lifetime. Hence, sugar stocks are likely to become sweeter, post settlement of sugarcane price in U.P. by mills with farmers.
About The CompanyBajaj Auto is of the leading company in two wheeler automobile industry. The Stock has been fairly fancied among the investors as well as traders in Indian Domestic Market.
In the 100-cc segment, Hero Honda remains the market leader with a 80% market share but Bajaj Auto is soon gaining some edge. In the Pulsar it has a 50% market share. The aim in FY10 is to improve market share on the back of high profits.
About The Results
Its performance of Q1 was an indication of what to expect from the company this fiscal. And in Q2, the company has continued with its winning trail, posting its highest ever quarterly net profit at Rs.403 crore, up by a whopping 117% on a YoY. The strategy of Rajiv Bajaj to concentrate more on high-end and premium bikes seems to be paying off. It is the launch of new bikes which has driven up the volumes. It sold 686,727 units in the quarter, up 7% on a YoY. Of this, exports made up 224,334 units, up 8%. Net sales increased 14.62% to Rs.2,887.51 crore. The company had launched its new Discover 100-cc bike in mid-July and this has been its main winner, selling 160,000 units since then.
Another major driver was the rise in exports. It exported 81,000 units in September and it hopes to exceed the annual target of 800,000 in FY10. Given the background of stronger rupee, it may be some cause for concern.
Lower raw material costs were a big contributor to the improved profit margins but in the coming months, the rising cost on metals could put some pressure on the margins. But the company is hoping to offset this rise in the costs by cutting down on marketing and advertising costs. The company expects a 50% rise in volume in the coming second half and this, it expects, would help offset any material cost increase.
My personal opinion on this stock with regard to its’ price performance in short to long term on basis of Fundamental analysis , Technical analysis and exclusive multi bagger reliable news sources are exclusively reserved for the registered member with detailing of the same. Only registered member have right to email me mentioning the name and date of registration to ask for the same.
Disclosure : I do not feel any need of giving any disclosure over here , my personal portfolio are always shared with the members.
BUY DIVIS LAB ABOVE 615 SL 572 FOR THE TGT OF 680-710 & BUY RANBAXY ABOVE 450 SL 415 FOR THE TGT 535-550.
NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4695-4650 AND RESISTANCE AT 5105-5180 .
LAST WEEK CALL: OUT OF 14 CALLS 3STOCKS FAILED TO MOVE ABOVE THE LEVELS , 3 STOCKS HIT STOP LOSS AND 3 STOCKS HIT THE 1ST TGTS AND 5 STOCKS HIT THE 2ND TGT.
RECOMMENDED ON 141109: PRISM CEMENT HIT THE FIRST TGT TV -18 SL HIT IDEA STILL OPEN.
NIFTY HAS SUPPORT AT 4695-4650 AND RESISTANCE AT 5105-5180 .
LAST WEEK CALL: OUT OF 14 CALLS 3STOCKS FAILED TO MOVE ABOVE THE LEVELS , 3 STOCKS HIT STOP LOSS AND 3 STOCKS HIT THE 1ST TGTS AND 5 STOCKS HIT THE 2ND TGT.
RECOMMENDED ON 141109: PRISM CEMENT HIT THE FIRST TGT TV -18 SL HIT IDEA STILL OPEN.
Bears have got the news they wanted but is it good enough. Dip Buyers on Friday think otherwise. We are in for interesting market action where conflict between bulls and bears is only going to intensify.
Market Observations
- The big question on everyone’s mind right now: Could Dubai World be this year’s “Lehman Brothers” event?
- Broad trends in financial market are not created by events, but by shifts in social mood. Are we about to witness shift in mood or Is it too early to say anything?
- Despite early morning panic in Indian market on Friday morning, dip buyers/DIIs showed amazing resilience and took the market up from 4820-4830 levels to 4950 levels.
- Message: Bulls need more proof before they can give up on this market. The burden of proof lies with the bears. Based on Friday’s trading action - you can best be cautious but certainly not bearish.
- Challenge: The challenge for stock investors globally is whether to pocket more of the current year’s gains or ride it out in hopes of a Santa Claus rally
- GDP Day: Today, Indian Government will release second quarter GDP report. The expectation : 6.1 to 6.3% growth last quarter
- Today is last day of November. Month to Date, Nifty is up 4.8%.
- Damaged Technicals: Despite smart pullback on Friday, Nifty closed below 50 dma of 4971.
- Friday was a heavy volume day in futures market. FIIs net sold Rs. 770 crores worth of Nifty futures; and net bought Rs. 165 crores worth of stock futures.
- Healthcare seems to be a safe sector now-a-days. The sector is up 8% this month and it seems both fundamentals + defensive nature of the sector may help this sector even if there is turbulent December for equity markets.
- Two stocks to keep an eye on - Sun Pharma and Glenmark Pharma.
- Food Inflation has soared to 15.6%. This is really cause for concern.
- Impact: There has been supply shortage in cement as the government has prioritised the allotment of railway wagons for food grains and fertilisers. This has led to price rise in cement and as a result - cement stocks rallied last week. [Temporary price rise]
- Crude Oil is on decline in Global market. It closed at USD 76 on Friday. If it weakens further -it will be good news for Indian OMCs like HPCL and BPCL.
- Financial history shows that if you owe your bank a hundred dollars, you have a problem. But if you owe your bank a million dollars, the bank has problems. Dubai World debt burden has highlighted this problem again
- Among Indian banks - Bank of Baroda has maximum exposure to UAE. The stock is avoid right now. On Friday, stock lost 5% and clocked 5x volumes of 10 day ma volume.
- Two more reasons why one should avoid Telecom sector - i. 1 paisa SMS launch by RCOM; and ii. Mobile Number portability implementation.
- Will Telecom stocks follow Indonesia example? - The price war in Indonesia lasted 2 years, during which the mobile market leader Telkom lost 60% of its market cap on pricing concerns. However, Telkom stock recovered 51% from its stock price lows thereafter as tariff declines slowed. [Remember, it lasted two years...so it's too early to call]
- Suzlon: I wrote on Suzlon last week as the stock in conflict zone. On Friday, stock was up 6%. Technically, it’s a bullish sign as stock has bounced from 20 dma of 68.5
- If you own nothing and you’re trying to build up your portfolio, a sell off is a gift…Jim Cramer
- Traders should always have a plan - A good plan is like a road map: It shows the final destination and usually the best way to get there. It also includes what a trader should do if he gets lost on the way.
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There is never one cockroach in the closet. If you see one running across the room, that means there are many more in the walls and behind the counters.
It means bad news often leads to more bad news. The term comes from the common belief that seeing one cockroach is usually evidence that there are many more that remain hidden. Dubai World debt problem disclosure may just be the beginning of bad news flow.
I know lots of people may say what has Dubai World problem to do with us. Well, remember - it is the money (liquidity) that takes the market up or down. If fresh concerns emerge - it is bound to have an impact on liquidity and risk perception.
What happened?
On Wednesday, 25 November, the government of Dubai said that its investment holding company, Dubai World, which owns a vast portfolio of businesses worldwide, is being “restructured” with immediate effect. The objective of the restructuring is to “address financial obligations” and “ensure the continuity” of the company’s operations. The government also announced that it will ask all creditors of Dubai World to agree to a debt “standstill” during the restructuring and to extend maturities to “at least 30 May.”
What does it mean?- A potential default. The shock element is huge because the Government of Dubai is the owner of Dubai World. Dubai World accounts for USD 59 bn of Dubai’s total government obligations of USD 80 bn. The news definitely has increased the uncertainty in global markets, serious near term disruptions in credit market…and has opened up possibilities for rumours in days and weeks to come till clarity emerges
How will the news impact our market?
Extreme volatility and choppiness. What is going to make life difficult - choppy moves. It is easier to trade when market makes a directional move either up or down. But things become complex - when market moves in choppy fashion. Since, the broader set up is bullish - BUY the dips crowd will be active like we saw on Friday…but will those gain stick is highly doubtful.
Source: ChartAlert (www.chartalert.com)
This is the time to stay on sidelines till clarity or more cockroaches emerge. Positional trades in current market environment are likely to get chopped out.
What about money on sidelines
Liquidity is a coward, when you need her most she runs away and hides.
Nifty-4941-Monthly Graph
Indian market has been in a trading range of 4600-5100 in the last 6months including November 2009, and anyone who was short or long in the index by averaging would have made money both sides and Index which was moving sharply for a V-Shape recovery has failed to proceed and now if a channel is drawn support comes near 4270 and 8Month EMA is 4518 and any up-move 5225 & 5500 can be a strong resistance and till March end of 2010 I don’t see any big chance of Nifty crossing 5600 which makes Risk more than the reward.
Sensex-16632
Sensex has Gaped-down and marked low in 14trading days and last 2days of trade has seen higher volumes and failing to move above 16815 would suggest weakness is market and below 16200 possibility of making lower low below 15330 arise.
Graph of Monthly shows that V-Shape rally is now can become W-Shape also.
FIIs have been sellers from 20th November in market as per NSE website which indicate secondary market and which normally indicates year end pressure and
India’s export to UAE & U.S forms 24.5% of total exports and Remittance from both countries can be as high as 45%.
Indian Remittance is very important foreign exchange earner and construction workers in Dubai and Gulf region form a major rural income from expatriates, so only whenever Crude moves higher Indian Market has always gone that way. India has highest remittance in the world as per IMF data and already we face problem in U.S with U.S Two US senators having introduced a legislation seeking to prohibit companies that lay off large number of American workers, from subsequently hiring temporary workers (such as tech professionals) from outside the US. The proposed ‘Employ America Act’, if passed, could severely hit tech companies that had resorted to axing jobs during the economic downturn even as they continued to file for H-1B visas. The IT industry has expressed concern over the proposed legislation given its ramifications on businesses. But industry watchers also point out that the possibility of the new legislation being passed on a standalone basis may be somewhat low at a time when the US is slated to look at comprehensive immigration reform next year.
Mobius Says Dubai May Trigger Markets ‘Correction’ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYSFV6DTmk08
v Globally the Us Dollar Index is nearing a crucial resistance area of 76, which if crossed can lead to a significant rally in the greenbuck.
v Indian GDP data on 30th November and India Export & Import data for October will be announced on 1st December will be keenly watched.
To remind Posted on Friday 16th October 2009 http://akprabhakar.blogspot.com/2009/10/happy-diwali-happy-investing.html
What about this Diwali?
This time around I am not so bullish about the market so we would keep the picks simple. HOTELLEELA, CASTROL, MUNDRAPORT, TATATEA, NTPC, 3IINFO, IGL, GAIL, HINDUNILVR, IFCI would be my bets which look good from 1 year perspective till 2010Diwali. Accumulate in dips. Happy Diwali and Happy Investing!!!AS PREDICTED NIFTY CUT 20 EMA AND WELL 50 EMA
AND TAKEN SUPPORT @ 70 EMA @ 4827.16 AND REVERESED
WELL AS FRIDAY REVERSAL { AS TOLD HERE
: - FRIDAY REVERSAL } HAPPENED WHICH IS GIVEN STRAIGHT140 POINTS UP AS PER TIME ANALYSIS AND ALSO HAPPEND IN TREND
CHANGING TIME , NOW SUPPORT SEEN 4920 FOR POSITIONAL BECOZ TRIPLE
BOTTOM FORMATION HAPPENED @ THIS LEVEL IN CLOSING LEVELS,IF THIS BREAKS
IN CLOSING , GATES OPEN FOR BIG CORRECTION AS ALL EXPECTING ON DUBAI CRISIS
IN THE SAME WAY BROKEN DOWN SIDE RESISTANCE LINE SHOWING NO MORE UPSIDE LEFT AS TOLD ALREADY 5050 BELOW EXIT IN ALL LONGS , THE RECOVERY SEEN IN FRIDAY SHOWING THAT SOME CONSOLIDATION CAN TAKE PLACE IN THIS WEEK ON DUBAI CRISIS, LET US SEE WHAT HAPPENSAs mentioned on last sundday, i.e on 22nd Nov, - on the predicted reversal day of 23rd Nov, Monday, Market has seen a high first and then saw a correction.- Again on next mentioned reversal day of last Friday .i.e. on 27th Nov, market has seen a low, and then a strong uptrend
NEXT REVERSAL DAY :- WEDNESDAY i.e., 2nd DECEMBER IS LIKELY TO BE NEXT REVERSAL DAY FOR THIS WEEK , EITHER A HIGH OR LOW ON THIS DAY AND THEN CAN REVERSE THE EARLIER TREND ; NEXT FRIDAY ( 4TH DEC) IS LIKELY TO BE THE NEXT REVERSAL DAY
TREND CHANING TIMINGS ARE 11.35 AND 2 PM FOR FRIDAY TRADING
AND YOU CAN SEE IN BOTH TIMING NIFTY TRADED @ 4863 EXACTLY
AND IN BETWEEN THESE TWO TIMINGS FORMED A SAUCER FORMATION
FOR AN UPMOVE IMMEDIATELY TO HIGHER LEVELS
What happen on friday and what will happen for today ,click on charts to know more
FOR TREND CHANGING TIMINGS WILL UPDATE IN CHAT BOX IN LIVE MARKETS
Nifty has played two fractals of "Day" in the "Hour" time frame to near perfection and is in the process of playing the "Third" one now(All three marked in Red, Blue & Pink).
If this third also plays to perfection, Nifty could scale 5050++ easily and then fall sharply in the next 3-4 days. Position yourself accordingly.
If this third also plays to perfection, Nifty could scale 5050++ easily and then fall sharply in the next 3-4 days. Position yourself accordingly.
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