TECH_SPEAK: newsletter

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eClerx
TARGET 467

ZEE NEWS
TARGET 67

PIRMAL GLASS
TARGET 61

OIL COUNTRY
TARGET 122

AGRO TECHTARGET 280

ALFALAVAL - Breakout 1270 Target 1938

AVENTIS - Breakout 1575 Target 2500

BASF - Breakout 395 Target 726

ENGINERSIN - Breakout 1284 Target 2268

KANSAINER - Breakout 960 Target 1600

NIFTY - Unable to close below 4646 three days in a row and now taking support at 4600-4650 zone.(i am not going to change the above numbers so it is valid as long as nifty is not breaking the recent high) so natural pull back is going on as expected.
It may go upto 4830 and above 4960.
Two close above 4960 only downtrend reversal possible otherwise it is only a stong pull back.

Look at the EUR-USD chart. It is just touching the trendline shown readying itself for a breakdown. On the left side of the chart, you can see a congestion region (Circled). At point "A" , you can see that it couldn't sustain and dropping heavily. The bottom point of the congestion region is at 1.4310. If Euro breaks down below this point, you will see heavy selling pressure of Euro. I know, it is not easy. It may shuttle between the horizontal lines shown, for few weeks. Once it breaks down, you will see it crashing. You very well know that if USD strengthens, it will be very bad for US markets and you may see it crashing, bringing the markets around the globe along with it. When it will happen cannot be said. We have to wait and see. Something is fishy somewhere. We need to be extremely careful.

(NIFTY)

Expect Tremors and Tsunami once again…

In last weeks report I had mentioned the fall and the quick retracement possibility and it happened. The levels were not adhered precisely but very close. Now what?

As seen from the chart, you can see that the retracement is almost completed and getting ready for bigger debacle of markets. The shock wave can bake you breathless. Unless unforeseen good news triggers a rally, you will definitely get into a fix. That is the kind of a free fall I am expecting. Of course, it is market and anything can happen in between.

Why I am saying so? Look at the chart. The main chart shows you that the theoretical retracement is almost over. The attached 15 Min chart show you that it is forming a descending triangle (DT), which if breaks down can trigger a sharp fall. The technical target of this breakdown will cross the breakdown point of the daily scale chart. And Finally the Technical target of the Daily price action is below the breakdown point (WBD) of the chart pattern seen on the weekly chart (inbox). So the triggers happen one after the other. Imagine a fire cracker store catches fire. One cracker starts the fire, triggers few others and finally the whole storage. Blood freezing?
Disclaimer: It is my personal view and neither the analyst nor the publisher will be at any case responsible for the outcome of your trading using the information.

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OBSERVATION :
1) Total OI of NIFTY FUT up 1.54%, NIFTY NOV FUT up 1.75% last week. NIFTY FUT closed at 6 points discount. Discount increased by 2 points compare to NIFTY SPOT last week.
2) Out of NIFTY 50 STOCK FUTS, 29 STOCK FUTS closed positive, 11 STOCK FUTs closed negative and 10 STOCK FUTs close flat last week.
3) OI of current series NIFTY 4600 CE is up 167.60% prices up 23.57% and NIFTY 4700 CE is up 108.51% prices up 23.88% last week showing buying. OI of current series NIFTY 4800 CE is up 15.22% prices up 25.81% last week showing short covering plus buying. OI of NIFTY 4900 CE is 41.26 LK highest OI in CALLs.
4) OI of current series NIFTY 4500 PE is up 84.32% prices down 38.60% and NIFTY 4600 PE is up 70.53% prices down 37.19% last week showing aggressive put writing. OI of current series 4700 PE is up 54.50% prices down 35.82% last week showing put writing. OI of NIFTY 4600 PE is 58.89 LK highest OI in PUTs.
5) Total OI of NIFTY NOV series CALLs is up by 38.51 LK to 2.46 CR, NOV series PUTs is up by 95.76 LK to 2.93 CR. NIFTY NOV series PCR (OI) at 1.19 up by 0.24 points last week.

NIFTY (4796.15)
Resistance : 4870 / 4920 / 5035 / 5105
Support : 4710 / 4615 / 4540 / 4425 / 4340

SENSEX (16158.28)
Resistance : 16595 / 16875 / 17150
Support : 15725 / 15095 / 14690

SECTOR WATCH : CEMENT (SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKNESS)
ACC FUT : OI up 2.99% prices down 4.22% last week. Shorts build up. Positive only above 763.
AMBUJACEM FUT : OI up 4.17% prices down 5.93% last week. Shorts build up. Positive only above 89.
GRASIM FUT : OI down 11.22% prices flat last week. Unwinding. More weakness below 2130.
INDIACEM FUT : OI flat, prices down 6.31% last week. Still shorts. Positive only above 110 levels.

STOCK FUT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK : TATAPOWER FUT ( BEARISH)
OI up 28.47% prices down 5.26% last week. Shorts build up. More weakness below 1260 levels.

BUY

FINTECH ,Tgt 1400/1450/1500/1525,Sl 1245
BANKINDIA, Tgt 395/410/430+,Sl 330
INDIANHOTEL, Tgt 88/90/93/95,Sl 75

CONCLUSION :
We are at crucial stage where violent moves ahead. Last weeks trade indicating speculative longs build up at lower levels. For BREAKOUT, NIFTY SPOT need to sustain above 4850 levels for TGTs 4870-80, 4910-20. Above 4930 levels next TGT will be 4970-80 levels.
For BREAKDOWN, NIFTY SPOT need to trade below 4750 levels for TGTs 4670-80, 4610-20, below 4600 levels, next TGT will be 4530-40 levels.
NIFTY SPOT will trade very volatile between 4750-4850 till directional move.

ss)

Here's the Weekly chart for spot Nifty. The momentum (MACD 12, 26) has sure lost steam since July as indicated by the rectangular area. Last week's reaction has given a sell signal on this indicator. Are we going to see more fall going ahead? At the moment, this doesn't look like because if we look at the price, it is still above the crucial 47 mark. Secondly, 4500 is a good support level and thirdly the current oversold conditions don't gel with a fall.

(DHARMESH T. SHAH)