NEWS

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on negative note but end at higher on expiry day .For coming session2830-2840 will watch zone crossing above it can test 2910 levels .On the lower side2730 levels act support zone .

(Ilango)

Daily trend has changed from down to up. 2-day swing has given a buy. However, holding 2730 low is very important. Nifty is also heading into quite many resistances in the 2800-2820 area.
With short term nearing "OB" area, one round of profit booking/ selling may be considered.

2678-2709 has given buying interest during very -ve cues of world mkts..
2808...........has not been breached for last 4 days above which 2860, another critical level.

Till these ranges are not broken, trade as per TA. So many possibilities of bottoming exist and none of them will end in a hurry. It is likely to take minimum 2 weeks for resolving the same, provided "2662" low & 2885 high are held till then.







(Ilango)

A trading range of 2690 to 2880/2900 is expected in the coming days if this contracting ending diagonal is to play out in the coming days.
A minor "b" wave for the settlement today is quite apt considering the volatality associated with all those Inflation, GDP Nos, etc.
A likely range for the day may be 2730/2740 to 2780/2800.

This view is supported by the Dow EW count of 5.4 on(Ours "D" leg up) and finally 5.5 dn (and ours "E" leg dn-5th wave ending diagonal)

In line.. Thursday, February 26, 2009

Market behaved the way it ought to have behaved on last Thursday. We were positive on RIL, Infosys, Nifty, DLF,Tata Motors and Bank Nifty. Except for Bank Nifty all were on target. There was perceived selling in Bank Nifty though it was clear that Bank Nifty has to rise as rate cut is evident. But you all know how bears attack and manipulate the prices on any given day.

PNB where we had said that stock is under bear hammering and see the price has now corrected to 300 which is down by whopping 35%. Similar was the case with BOB where we had anticipated some losses from UAE and the story is out now.

Orissa Sponge is a classical case our find where it has been on roll every day. Educom has been hammered once again after the one man army made exit at 2000 plus. The rumour has been either spread or may be even true which will come to know only when it happens. It was the buzz that Citi which owns around 9 lac shares in Educom could hammer the price below Rs 1000 in the last out effort to help out bears. Whether this is true or not or whether this is another ploy of bulls we do not know. We advise all of you to stay away from this counter for the time being as it is evenly poised on either side. If management is listening this and is capable picking 1 mn shares then they should use the creeping route to head on in case of such attempt is being made. This is suggested in vies of the fact that they had made complaints in the past the bears have hammered their share prices and offered their books for investigation.

Akruti where the price rose to Rs 1100 and then fell to well below Rs 900 is another example of failure of proper mechanism of systems on the last day which are used for rampant price rigging. It is no secret that the bear had trapped at Rs 500 to 600 levels in this counter and had been paying over Rs 100 every month since last three months finding it very difficult to roll over the short positions. Who and how will any body come know whether the settlement has taken place between the long and short side traders because this is one of the few stocks which has defied the logic of realty collapse.

Market has shown some semblance to hold its much required band of 2700 and 2800 and with few overseas funds going long in nifty it could be very interesting to watch the market movement. I think by 7^th or 8^th March we will get an indication how market will behave on year close end though the odds are in favour of upside due to window dressing required for 31^st March Balance Sheet saving exercise for various funds domestic or otherwise.

B gr are showing some activity. Seamec the stock identified by us at 40 has hit 2 upper circuits at 57 today. Some buying is seen in penny stocks too.

Tata Motors moved from Rs 131 to Rs 152 after Nano news broke out proving the tradition of CNI sabse aage and sabse tez. Now it seems 2 funds will knock off their holding in Hero Honda

MY CHART

Nifty :: After an Engulfing bullish pattern Nifty move up firmly from strong support zone and made an Inverted bullish H & S pattern .. Exactly close near H & S breakout level.. Still too many strong resistance for up move in between 2806 to 2838.. May be we see one or two days side way momentum at current level before breakout.. Our strategy for 27^th Feb up to 2838 sell at high (S.L 2836) buy on deep (S.L 2759).Below 2759 momentum once again turn negative.. Resistance for up move at 2806/2820/2838/2975/2960.. Supports 2759/2732/2679/2661..

(SVShah)

Daily Market Outlook: 27 Feb 2009

Short Covering will make pullback rally in last hour and SENSEX shut shop at 8954, up 52 points and NIFTY at 2785, up 23 points from the previous close

NIFTY: (2786)

Nifty Now important level of 2705, if sustains then possible 2805/2835 if breaks 2700 level then 2630 also possible.

The Support for the Nifty is at 2730-2670 & the Resistance to the up move is at 2820/2835

BSE Sensex: (8955)

The Support for the Sensex is 8750 & the Resistance at 9030-9150

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 25.10% with 127% increasing volumes indicating forming of long positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive.

NIFTY (2785.65)

Resistance : 2800 / 2815 / 2840 / 2880

Support : 2770 / 2745 / 2725 / 2705

SENSEX (8954.86)

Resistance : 9030 / 9125-50

Support : 8910 / 8830 / 8750 / 8700

NIFTY FUT (2766)

Resistance : 2805 / 2820 / 2835

Support : 2765 / 2745 / 2730 / 2695 / 2670

BANK NIFTY (3834.45)

Resistance : 3850 / 3910 / 4000

Support : 3770 / 3710

On Friday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 2780-85,Sl below 2770,Tgt 2795-2810-2840,

Sustain Below 2760-55,Sell with Sl Above 2770,Tgt 2745-2730-2715-2705

BSE Listing of Equity shares of Shakti Press Ltd.(526841) on 27.02.2009.

Buy GRASIM Around 1450,Tgt 1510/50,Sl 1400

Buy TATA MOTORS Around 145,Tgt 155/60/65,Sl 135

Buy RELIANCE Above 1295

Buy DRREDDY Above 410

Buy BHARTI Above 650,Tgt 665/75/85,Sl 640

Buy NEYVELI LIGNITE Above 72,Sl 70,Tgt 75/77/80/84

Buy BHEL Above 1405,Tgt 1440-1475-1495,Sl 1390

Buy ONGC Above 720,Tgt 740-755-765,Sl 710

Positional : Buy RENUKA Around 80

Sell TCS Below 480,Tgt 475-465-455,Sl 490

Sell ITC Below 185,Tgt 180-175-165,Sl 190

Sell ICICIBANK Below 325,Tgt 315-300-295,Sl 330

Sell SBIN (1023),Sl Above 1045,Tgt 1005-995

Sell GUJ AMBUJA Around 66/67,Tgt 64/62/60,Sl 70

Sell RANBAXY Aound 180,Tgt 155/45,Sl 195

RENUKA MARCH FUTURE (81.55)

Buy Above 81.7.Tgt 83.15/84.4/85.2/86.4, Supports : 79.9/78.7/77.9

Rajesh Joshi)

Few days in my earlier past had indicated that Crude had made a " Double Bottom Formation" also can be considered as "Higher bottom Formation' around 33$. After that the crude oil has witnessed a sideways & slow uptrend move. Currenty the crude is trading at 44.20$. Still the Crude has not confirmed its upward journey as it has to make a Higher Top formation. A key reversal pattern, which will be above the immediate resistance of 48.46 $. Once Crude Oil breaches 48.46$ then the commodity will confirm its upward trend.

forecast
As per Vedic Astrology after 15th April 2009 Sun, which is lord of the 5th house of Stock Market as per Kalpurusha Kundali (Horoscope), will enter in his exalted sign i.e. Aries. On the date of Sun ingress transit Moon will be in trine aspect with transit Sun. Venus, significator of wealth and luxury, will be occupying in its exalted sing i.e. Pisces and depositor of Venus will be in sextile aspect, all these planetary position indicates that BSE Sensex will touch 12,000 benchmark between 21st April 2009 and 15th May 2009.



Bulls will back on Dalal Street, there may be some positive results from leading Companies or Indian Government or Reserve Bank of India would give some stimulating package, which may boost up Indian Stock Market.

(STOCKSTAR)

INDEXGAME-
BUY NF ABOVE 2777 SL 2730 TARGET 2840/2880
SELL NF BELOW 2777 SL 2840 TARGET 2730/2650

STOCKSGAME-
BUY ADLABS ABOVE 165 SL 160 TARGET 170/175
BUY BHARTIARTL ABOVE 650 SL 640 TARGET 660/670
BUY HDFCBANK ABOVE 875 SL 865 TARGET 885/895
BUY HEROHONDA ABOVE 925 SL 910 TARGET 940/955
BUY INFOSYS ABOVE 1240 SL 1220 TARGET 1260/1280
BUY KPIT ABOVE 22 SL 20 TARGET 24/26
BUY KFA ABOVE 33 SL 32 TARGET 34/35
BUY KSOILS ABOVE 45 SL 43 TARGET 47/49
BUY MCDOWELL-N ABOVE 600 SL 575 TARGET 625/650
BUY PURVA ABOVE 38 SL 36 TARGET 40/42
BUY RELIANCE ABOVE 1288 SL 1266 TARGET 1310/1332
SELL AKRUTI BELOW 920 SL 950 TARGET 890/860
SELL AMBUJACEM BELOW 65 SL 67 TARGET 63/61
SELL BPCL BELOW 385 SL 395 TARGET 375/365
SELL IOC BELOW 435 SL 445 TARGET 425/415

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

With things not changing much in the todays session pasting yesterdays views

The view remains the same as yesterday to watch for the 8600 level which if holds we could see a possible pullback to 8978 -9270 levels also.

Any upmove will face major resistance around 9500 in short term. Only a move beyond 10100 would mean a change of trend on upside in short term. Similarly 8500 on closing basis remains a confirmation level for a breakdown.

Stocks to watchout for :

Bajaj Auto does tgt of 525+ and can still go higher. Maruti continues beyond tgt. HDFC touched 1200 could now give a pullback of 40 bucks.

ABB

It was discussed as a short pick some days back below 410 for a tgt of 380-350. The stock pulled back from 365 and tested the breakdown level. Seems its headed down again short below 360-365 for a tgt of 345-330 in short term.

Larsen and Toubro

Stock remains in a downtrend. Short below 605 for a tgt of 570-585 in short term.

Power Finance

The stock has sustained in the range of 132-144 in the last couple of weeks. A move above 145 with volumes could tgt 149-154 levels.

ONGC

There have been 2-3 tops around the range of 740. Possible trade could be short around 735-739 with a stop of 743 or buy above 743 for a quick 15-25 bucks on either side depending on your view.

Ranbaxy

October low 165 and January low around 161. The stock can see a pullback from these levels of 170-167. Risky traders can buy small qty with a stop of 164-161 for short term delivery.

ss

Gold is reacting after reaching 1500+ and for those who missed the bus, they can get in around 1380-1400 which can act as a probable support. The above chart is of GOLDBEES which is an ETF managed by Benchmark Asset Management.

S S Cheema

Everyday I get up early as my job demands it. If I did not have a commitment at night then I try to update the blog by the previous night – mostly fairly late at night – and if I do have a commitment like night flying and some late evening get together (they are fairly common) Then I try to read the charts and update in the morning. Then there are days like today when BSNL refuses to connect me and I wait for the connectivity for me to read whatever little research I can and then post the article. 24 hours of no net connectivity was what it was like today and that is the reason I just could not post a message – leave aside a sorry message for not updating. After that I generally have flying in the morning that I finish around 10 – and after debriefing the pilots I go and try to come online to see where the markets are headed to. I then open the ICICI and indiabulls to see can track my favourite stocks. Now after a glance and once again seeing my blog / posting messages on other blogs I am off to office work. Then I go home around 2:30-3:00 and see the markets before closing. THe way the things are going – frankly I am confused. I cannot and will not speak for others – but right from jhunjhunwalla to all others on the idiot box are also changing their statements on hourly basis. Weak now, Now weaker – showing resilience, some strength returning and blah blah blah. The fact of the matter remains that no one really knows. The day the markets were dropping and giving red candles – I really felt that there is strength and resilience in the markets, now when they are inching up – I feel there is weakness in the market. The gold is at all time high and I feel that it has reached somewhat unwarranted levels. The crude is at such low levels that I feel it is unwarranted. What I feel is that gold should correct down and as it comes down some of the money will enter the markets and the liquidity will improve – however on the other hand the crude should see better days ahead and should swing up raising fresh worries of increasing fuel bill here along with fuelling inflation. Well all this is hypothetical and only time can prove or disprove it.

I had expected a weak market today as yesterday – though we had a white candle – that feel good factor was missing. Then we had a weak session. the markets recovered today towards the close – and GOD only knows what we have in store for tomorrow. The Global cues are like this --- Nikkei closed flat after remaining the entire day in green to close 0.04% in red. Hang Seng was down by 0.85% and Strait Times was up by 0.04%. Japan is the worst at the moment as I see it. Europe opened green and finished green – FTSE was up by 1.73%, Dax up 2.51% and CAC up 1.78%. The US markets are topsy turvy to say the least. They were green – went red – went green and are presently red as Obama has pulled back the curtain over the 10 Year Budget plan. He has by and large signalled that they will have sweeping Health reforms and the fiscal deficit will be reduced. That he says will be partly funded by increase of taxes collected from high-income Americans. As always it will be interesting to see the US closing tonight.

Let us see the technicals – There was a nice white candle on nifty. The bodies of the last two white candles are so posed that we can take them as a single big white candle. Both inclusive – the candle pierce the black candle that we saw on Feb 20th. We have actually moved away from the lower end of the Bollinger band and the 5 EMA is looking up – may attempt a 20 EMA crossover. The volumes were fairly high and most can be contributed to the square off/rollover to the next session. The 20 EMA is around 2820-25 level so that is how – we will be comfortable only if the markets cross that level. On ADX the –DI has blipped down and the green too has blipped down. The fight between the red and green will go on for some time to come. The negative divergence of the MACD has reduced somewhat. RSI is looking up suddenly and seems bullish. TRIX still looks down and that is not a good sign. The Slow stochastic that were in the oversold territory are now mid way to becoming overbought – so make hay while the sun shines. There is all the possibility for a good day tomorrow with better participation of the markets.

Let us see the pivot levels because at the crossroads where we are – it will take a sudden and an interesting turn – whenever it does..

R3 2863
R2 2837
R1 2811
Pivot 2771
S1 2745
S2 2705
S3 2679
Projected High Range 2791 to 2824
Projected Low Range 2770 to 2737
Fib Projected High 2814
Fib Projected Low 2713

In all this I almost forgot to mention that inflation is now at 3.36% and we may have some more measures just before the ban for elections come into vogue. That means there is some good news still in the air. Best of luck for tomorrow.

news

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on positive note and saw selling pressure at higher levels but managed to close in green zone .For coming session we can see choppy session if nifty trade above 2780 it can test 2809-2827 zones . On the lower side trading below 2745 it can test 2711-2691 levels .

(Ilango)

Dow nearly completing its 5.3rd and may soon be in 5.4. In such a scenario, looking at our charts and having an alternate count:
At 3147, the 4th wave ended as a simple flat. Subsequent to that we have been having waves with 3 sub waves indicating a possibility of a contracting ending diagonal as a 5th wave.
a. 3147 -2662 ; b. 2662 - 2970; c. 2970 - (2678..????); d. ............up ; e. ........dn to complete the 5th wave. For this to play out, Nifty should hold 2650 levels.
This is just a possibility as our markets are not falling as much as other markets. and some sectors are witnessing reversals such as Cement, select auto counters and so on.
Today, Nifty went upto the Pivot table's R2 @ 2788 and fell.
For tomorrow, if it can find support at 2750, some more bounces can be expected. However, more weakness will be seen below 2750.
Presently, the hourly time frame reached the "OB" region and sold off in the last hour and the daily & weekly trend remains down only.







(waval atul)

practically traders doesnot trade on expiry day.......but we r going to trade for gud money..........as shown in graf ,,,mkt will open in red ...and pz read the graf call no 1 given for intraday,,,,,,,,, short reliance on some rise as shown in graf with stoploss given in graf...........this is the intraday calllll.........after that if u got the 1220--1210 spot level of reliance,,,,,,,then take positional buy here with very small stoploss and good gain .......pz read the graf for this positional; call,,

rupeshydalal

NIFTY FUTURE

ABOVE 2765 TARGET 2793-2809-2821
BELOW 2754 TARGET 2745-2734-2720-2703

MARKETCALLS’ VIEW ON NIFTY FOR INTRADAY :
Today our market will open Positive. Nifty is having resistance at 2821. If not closing or sustaining above this level safe and small trader can exit. Sell at higher levels.

forecast

Market may open up. Market would be volatile . Market may up between 10.27 and 10.52 Market may steady or up side between 12.32 and 12.58. Market may close at down or near to previous closing.


SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS



Opening Bell Call
Buy

Exit All Long Term Positions

On 25th February 2009 - The BSE Sensex closed at 8902 (up 80 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 2762 (up 28 points).

Opening Bell Call
Sell
JMFINANCIL - JM Financial Limited
MOSERBAER - Moser-Baer (I) Ltd
SAIL - Steel Authority of India Ltd.
ISPATIND - Ispat Industries Limited
HDIL - Housing Development and Infrastructure Limited
NETWORK18 - Network 18 Fincap Limited

Technical Analysis for 26th February 2009

BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 8926, 8949, 8971, 9006, 9041, 9064, 9086, 9109
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 8891, 8856, 8834, 8811, 8776, 8741, 8707, 8672

NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 2761, 2776, 2790, 2804, 2817, 2832, 2846, 2860
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 2748, 2734, 2720, 2705, 2692, 2678, 2664, 2650

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex does a small pullback and fills the first gap around 8978 by making a high of 8995. The view remains the same as yesterday to watch for the 8600 level which if holds we could see a possible pullback to 8978 -9270 levels also.

Any upmove will face major resistance around 9500 in short term. Only a move beyond 10100 would mean a change of trend on upside in short term. Similarly 8500 on closing basis remains a confirmation level for a breakdown.

Stocks to watchout for :

Just a review of some of the views and charts posted in last few days :

ABB and Infosys Charts -- Abb does 380 and is headed lower. Infosys pulls back from 1140-1160 resistance now arnd 1260-1280 difficult to cross.

HDFC Bank and ICICI --- Both the stocks cracked as expected. Could see small pullbacks from 800-830 and 300-310.

Axis Bank and HDFC Ltd Charts --- Axis Banks dips below 375 to touch 355 . HDFC ltd breaks 1350 and touches 1250 and should be booked around 1200-1240 support zone.

Maruti crosses 645 and does an expected move of 20 bucks by hitting a high of 669. Bajaj Auto has crosses 503-505 and is a buy for 525+.

Fresh stock views :

ABB

It was discussed as a short pick some days back below 410 for a tgt of 380-350. The stock pulled back from 365 and tested the breakdown level. Seems its headed down again short below 360-365 for a tgt of 345-330 in short term.

Larsen and Toubro

Stock remains in a downtrend. Short below 605 for a tgt of 570-585 in short term.

Bajaj Auto

Auto stocks have been seeing good buying support in the last few sessions. Technically stock seems to be breaking out of a range buy around 503-505 with a stop of 490 for a tgt of 525+.

NEW PRESENTATION ON SENSEX AND CURRENT SCENARIO Click to download

Market Observations and Thoughts :

Lot many stocks are seeing promoters increasing the stake - but the question is who is selling on the other side ?. Now there is an unwritten norm in the market where in the promoter group holds an unofficial stake which continues to remain always or gets placed when needed. According to some market-men some of the promoters might be just transferring the shares. Will the added stake be again placed at higher levels to investors, funds, instituitions in better times or is it the promoters are bailing out some stuck investors,funds or re-buying stock placed at higher levels in bull market. In either case insider buying is always positive :)

ssHere's a comparison of three auto stocks - From their prices in October 27, Maruti (top) gains 28.7%, Tata Motors (middle) is at the same level while M&M (bottom) gains 26.4%.


Maybe M&M will follow Maruti and breakout too!

ssHere we see a long squeeze on National Aluminum. The prices appear to be traveling sideways inside the band but actually they are moving up slowly. From its October 27 close, this stock has gained 48% against Nifty's 9.4%. Just watch this stock for some action ahead.

NEWSLETTER

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on lower note tracking weak global cues and saw smart recovery from the lower levels and end session with marginally red zone. For coming session if nifty trade above 2756 levels it can test 2801-2827 zone on the lower side 2691 will act as support zone .

(Lee)

Well how was my timing yesterday? :)
I for one was very happy with it...Covered shorts near the low and took some very low risk longs in calls...In a notional profit right now. I will likely look to cover it very soon - even before expiry - I am obviously not very comfortable holding longs at this juncture...Markets can reverse back down at any point of time...2850 would be the most aggressive target.

Now why did I cover? Below chart explains it...And I did point this out yesterday also...And we got a doji...Seems to be playing out according to plan...We should also get a big up day very soon if its playing according to the plan.



The other interesting thing - If you pull up the intraday chart from yesterday, we seem to have formed an intraday inverse H&S which projects a target to 2800 if we move above yesterdays highs...So worth watching. (pull up a yahoo 5 day chart and see what I am referring to)

Okay so thats my short term outlook and my trading plan...

Now coming to the bigger picture...MVP asked a very interesting and important question in the chat box...Something I have also been wondering for some time...Simply put...why is there a disconnect b/w our markets and the dow or spx...We have broken the lows in DOW or SPX and nifty is still strong...Why? Well I do not have answers but I can speculate...

Something else worthy of note here is that Nasdaq has not broken the lows and looks more strong...It looks more like Nifty so we can compare ourselves to that index...

But...coming to the discrepancy...There are 2 possibilities...

1. If you remember in Oct of 2007, US already started the bear..Much earlier than us...We waited till January to put in the big move down...Market might be held up right now and stealth distribution might be going on...Before the final capitulation move to a bottom...This is one possibility.

2. The second one is a more fundamental one...I.E India is more stronger and is preparing itself for the next bull market...Hence the relative strength.

I think its a mix of above 2. I expect we will tag the bottom of this chart eventually as I have been calling for a while. It may happen sometime within the March-April timeframe. Sensex Monthly attached below.



And I think this will be a very important bottom for our markets...And we might not breach this in the coming months...You can see we have been in a structural long term bull market...Recent bear market non-withstanding...A tag of 6400 on sensex and moving up from there will have me very bullish. We can expect several tests of the channel bottom before the next bull market begins...Ofcourse all this will take a lot of time...Its not a 1 or 2 day event.

But during this time SPX might might just form another term bottom at 650-600 odd and then mount another rally only to break it later...India on the other hand will become more stronger as time goes by...And as the fundamentals regain strength.

This is my longer term view and should be taken with large fists full of salt :)

Earnings wise, I am here in US, I see it, its bad...SPX might have negative earnings very soon...Do you see that for India? No...Sure we are in a slowdown...even recession...But we will recover within 2 yrs or so...US on the other hand if lucky will recover in 5-6 yrs...If NOT, worst case US of A is going into a depression.

Speaking more on the fundamentals, I am appalled at the way policy is moving here right now...Its not good...US of A is moving more toward socialism when we are trying to move more to capitalism...They are worsening the situation with every new policy step they take...If they had done nothing, market and economy might have recovered sooner...This is why I think USA has peaked...New Policy is making it worse...Sure it will stabilize somewhere but I think the boom here in US of A is over...

The next few decades belong to China and India.

(Ilango)

The positive divergences that developed in the past few days are translating into intra rallies despite huge negative sentiment in the world markets.
U.S S&P500 has fallen for 6 days in a row and it is due for a bounce.
The near "Nil" discount in Feb futures point to weak bears in this series.
Nifty is in downtrend in weekly & daily. However, the hourly continues with + div in the "OS" region. Trade light..2750-2770 is a strong resistance zone followed by 2800. A fall below 2680 will lead to huge selling.
"Lots" differences in the March series will hamper retail rollovers owing to margin pressures.

(The triangle in Nifty that developed over the past 4 months can be labelled as 5th wave in the form of an ending diagonal...So holding 2680-2660 in the next few days will keep some bullish scenario alive) Trade this sideways range of 2678 - 2807 until a decisive break...








MY CHART

Nifty :: We clearly given buy signal at lower level in yesterday post and Nifty made an Long Legged Doji pattern near strong support level. Close above pennant breakdown level.. Now for 25^th Feb watch 2741 above 2741 momentum seems up and below 2741 momentum down.. Watch two strong resistance 2741 & 2763 above it next strong resistance 2806/ 2850.. Still our strategy same as yesterday buy on deep (S.L 2703) Sell at high.. Resistance for up move at2741/2763/2770/2806/2820/2850.. Supports at 2703/2668/2661..

SVShah)

BSE Sensex : (8843)

The Support for the Sensex is 8630 and the Resistance to the up move is at 9030-9157

Nifty : (2736)

Still we are in cautious levels and Dow has important role for direction of Market. Once Nifty move above 2840 and stay for 1-2 trading day then we can say worst is over for short term. Nifty has Crucial level of 2620 if break then possible 2500 or below.

The Support for the Nifty is at 2680 and the Resistance to the up move is at 2790-2830.

The government to cut service tax by 2%, to reduce it down to 10%, The government also cuts excise duty on bulk cement to 8% or Rs 290/tonne.The 8% excise duty cut applicable beyond March 31.

NIFTY (2733.9)

Resistance : 2760 / 2790 / 2830 / 2880

Support : 2705 / 2680 / 2650 / 2610

SENSEX (8843)

Resistance : 8915 / 9030 / 9160

Support : 8685 / 8630 / 8530

NIFTY FUT (2726)

Resistance : 2750 / 2780 / 2840

Support : 2690 / 2650 / 2615

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI (both series) up with increasing volumes indicating rollover of short positions to next series.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive with volatility.

On Wednesday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 2730,Sl Above 2715,Tgt 2745/60/90,

Sustain Below 2710,Sell with Sl Above 2725,Tgt 2690/50/30.

POSITIONAL HIGH RISKY TRADERS : Sell NIFTY@ 2750/70,Sl Above 2790,Tgt 2675-2650

Buy AMBUJACAM above 69

Buy SBIN,Sl Below 1010,Tgt 1045/55+

Buy NALCO Above 200/205

Buy ABAN Above 350/55,Sl 340,Tgt 375/85

Buy GUJALKALI Above 58,Sl 55,Tgt 61/64/66

Buy ACC Above 560,Tgt 575-585-610,Sl 550

Buy BANKINDIA Above 220,Tgt 225-230-240,Sl 215

Buy VSNL Above 390,Tgt 400-410-425,Sl 380

Buy SIEMENS Above 220,Tgt 225-230-245,Sl 215

Sell TATASTEEL Below 160,Tgt 155-150-145,Sl 165

Sell HEROHONDA Below 900,Tgt 885-875-850,Sl 910

FUTURES

BHEL (1361) : Buy@ 1350/60,Sl 1345,Tgt 1370/80/85/90/95+

ONGC (680.60) :

Buy @ 670/75,Sl 665,Tgt 685+

Or

Open High Sell @690/95,Sl 705,Tgt 685/80

RIL (1253) : Buy@ 1230/45,Sl 1225,Tgt 1270/80/90/95

Technical Levels for 25 February 2009
Symbol	RES 1	RES 2	RES 3	Pivot	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3	Trading Signal
Top of Form GOLD Bottom of Form	15870.33	16010.67	16124.33	15756.67	15616.33	15502.67	15362.33	Sell Signal
Top of Form SILVER Bottom of Form	23591.00	23846.00	24022.00	23415.00	23160.00	22984.00	22729.00	Sell Signal
Top of Form LEAD Bottom of Form	50.47	51.38	52.32	49.53	48.62	47.68	46.77	Buy Signal
Top of Form COPPER Bottom of Form	161.67	163.63	166.42	158.88	156.92	154.13	152.17	Buy Signal
Top of Form NICKEL Bottom of Form	487.13	495.77	508.33	474.57	465.93	453.37	444.73	Buy Signal
Top of Form CRUDEOIL Bottom of Form	1952.33	1990.67	2014.33	1928.67	1890.33	1866.67	1828.33	Sell Signal
Top of Form ZINC Bottom of Form	54.03	54.62	55.33	53.32	52.73	52.02	51.43	Buy Signal
Top of Form NATURALGAS Bottom of Form	207.90	211.20	214.40	204.70	201.40	198.20	194.90	Sell Signal
Top of Form MENTHAOIL Bottom of Form	520.97	526.03	534.37	512.63	507.57	499.23	494.17	Buy Signal
Top of Form ALUMINIUM Bottom of Form	64.33	64.87	65.93	63.27	62.73	61.67	61.13	Buy Signal
Top of Form REFSOYOIL Bottom of Form	449.83	453.07	458.73	444.17	440.93	435.27	432.03	Buy Signal

S S Cheema

There are reasons that I would like to list before I try to protect the stand I have taken today. Firstly I have been of the opinion for some time now that this fall is unwarranted – we cannot fall unhindered even if we were doing as bad as we are doing now a days. But I also agree that the markets have a mind of their own and it did not stop climbing when everyone was hoarse calling out that the climb is not keeping pace with the pace of growth. All the same at the moment we are oversold, the volumes have been low, we are overly concerned with the happenings in the US and the rest of the world, we have an elections at our door steps and the present regime gives less weightage to the economic concerns than the populist concerns. All the same we do not have a negative growth. Our internal demand, development continues. we still remain to be agrarian society where too much exports do not effect us like China and the list goes on and on… All this is right but the fact is that we are seeing lower tops and lower bottoms. The earlier range in which we used to play was 3200 – 2900, now if we can play the range 3000 – 2600 – it will be a great miracle.

Today the candle we have made is Dragonfly doji. It is a fairly strong reversal signal. It indicates that the control has shifted from the Bears to the bears. Now that would be great. But all the same take this with a pinch of salt. We are into the last few days of settlement and that could have let some pressure off. The second reason that I feel (and do not see as a major concern to others) is that the lot sizes have increased considerably. In these times of low volumes and low liquidity I feel that the rollovers may suffer. If that be so then a percentage of the shorts will have to be covered and not carried forward. That would lead to some sort of bounce. That coupled with somewhat stable to good international cues can ensure that we go up a bit higher and trigger a wave of buying that can sustain us above 3200. Hypothesis and nothing else but all the same a scenario in front of all of you.

The global cues … Asia remained weak and we saw red all the way home. Nikkei was down 1.46%, Hang Seng down 2.86% and Strait Times down 1%. There was a chance perhaps of better day but the Europe basically dashed the hopes. FTSE closed 0.89%, DAX 1.03% and CAC down 0.73%. Does is not seem to somebody that the markets around the world are hanging around at levels – wherein at the first signs of recovery can give a good push up?There was a statement by Bernanke wherein he has lighted a glimmer of hope by saying that if all goes well then the recovery to the US economy can take place in 2010. The markets that had opened flat – gone green – fell to flat line again rallied up. Since then the higher ground has been lost but US is still green all the same. hope like hell that it remains this way.

As I have mentioned earlier the candlestick is a Dragonfly Doji and it represents reversal after a fall so that is one good condition. We are now officially trailing the lower edge of the Bollinger bands. The bottom touched it. 5 EMA is below the 20 EMA and 20 EMA is below the 50 EMA so a long way to go before the trend changes. Volumes were low – but a bit higher than day before. ADX is purely bearish. MACD continues with its negative divergence – but I am happy that the divergence is not too much. RSI is negative and Slow Stochastic has the red line crossing over the blue line – but still in oversold territory. TRIX is still looking down.

Wanna see how the day went past? Well the trade was fairly simple. We opened just below the S1 level and threatened once to break to the S 2 levels but crossed the S1 levels towards the Pivot point and thereafter never looked back. We never really test the Pivot but neither we saw the lows seen earlier during the day.

The pivot levels for tomorrow should hold a lot of meaning because the good times will be indicated by the charts before they happen.

R3 2815 as against 2869 on Friday
R2 2787
R1 2760
Pivot 2718 as against 2744 on Friday
S1 2691
S2 2649
S3 2622 as against 2620 on Friday
Projected High Range 2739 to 2774
Projected Low Range 2718 to 2683
Fib Projected High 2764
Fib Projected Low 2658

forecast

Market may open up. Market may up between 10.30 and 10.51 Market may steady or up side between 12.30 and 12.50. Market may close at up or near to previous closing.


SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS


Opening Bell Call
Buy
RCOM - Reliance Communications Limited
ABB - ABB Limited
JINDALSTEL - Jindal Steel & Power Ltd.
INFOSYSTCH - Infosys Technologies Ltd.
IFCI - IFCI Limited
DIVISLAB - Divi's Laboratories Limited

On 24th February 2009 - The BSE Sensex closed at 8822 (down 21 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 2733 (down 2 points).

Opening Bell Call
Sell
APTECHT - Aptech Limited
PARSVNATH - Parsvnath Developers Limited
HDIL - Housing Development and Infrastructure Limited
JAICORPLTD - Jai Corp Limited
APIL - Alstom Projects India Limited

Technical Analysis for 25th February 2009

BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance -8766, 8839, 8912, 8958, 9003, 9076, 9149, 9223
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 8721, 8675, 8602, 8529, 8484, 8438, 8393, 8348

NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance -2719, 2740, 2760, 2774, 2788, 2809, 2829, 2850
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support -2705, 2691, 2671, 2650, 2636, 2622, 2609, 2595

Manas

Every dip is being bought into.we broke below 2691, but still didn't break down.

Dow is hitting 11 years lows, and we are still 20% higher than our recent lows.yes, its strange, but that the way the market runs, it will never make our job easy.

i read in some blog, that in case we hit a 7 year low, thn nifty will be at 900 levels :-D

well for trades.. break down or not, i will still consider 2690 important, and no shorts above it, or no longs below it.

if 2690 holds, we may see 2807-2846-2870 levels in this week.

Now for intraday, 2707-2690 is the level to watch, breaking which nifty may fall to 2650-2635 levels.
if the above level holds, 2755-2772 for intraday


(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

In the last week had discussed that Sensex immediate levels in short term are 8630-8750 to watch and would decide the next move. We saw fridays low around 8750 and today arnd 8620 close to the band.

Some things to note in last few sessions:

--> A fall of 1000 points or around 10% in last 7 sessions.

--> Gaps around 9213-9279 and 8944-8978 left in the last 2 weeks. 3rd gap down got filled today itself.

-->8630 is the January month low.

The above observations point to an oversold state ( indicator followers can check hourly charts , i prefer to keep it simpler and understandable) .

A possibility is we see a bounce back in the next 2-4 sessions which may look to touch 8970-9270 zone which is gap filling and resistances.

Although the trend remains down and could see more selling pressure below 8500. So a risky play would be to go for a pullback with a stop of 8500.

TRIANGLE PATTERN IN SENSEX :

In my last video had shown the impact of triangle formation on Sensex . Some weeks back we had discussed about the same when Sensex broke 9500 after Satyam fiasco. Sensex has not been able to get back into that trendline and currently the chart as seen yesterday another important support comes around the 8500-8700 band roughly on closing charts.

Sustained closing below 8500 would again confirm the breakdown from triangle ( taking 2nd line joining 8500, 8316 , 8631 ) and lead to a tgts of 7700 and lower also.

So continue to watch 8500 level till March end ( time series calculation ) to get the next direction for the market.

Stocks to watchout for :

Pullback possibilities

SBI

The stock has had lows around 990-1000 in the last few months. So can expect a bounce back from this zone. Buy around 1010-1020 stop of 990 tgt 1045-1070 in short term.

AXIS Bank and ICICI Bank

Supports placed around 350 and 310 can be bought on dips with the stop and can give a bounce of 5-10%.

Maruti /Bajaj Auto

The above two stock seem positive in the near term. Bajaj above 505 and Maruti above 645 could give a good bounce of 20 bucks.

Sector to watch for :

Small PSU and private banks look a low risk investment bet in long term. Of late we have been seeing a good amount of selling pressure in OBC , PNB , Central , IOB , BOI etc. With high dividend yield and good price to book the sector looks interesting on further dips below october lows could give a safety net of capital preservation. Seems good to me but am not good at fundamentals so expect readers to contribute on stock picking in the sector.

(ss)

Looks like we're going to take another shot at 2950-3000. A pullback right on the lower Bollinger Band gives some confidence in trading on the long side. Volatility has been going down and the 20 day ATR is at 78.50 or 2.87% of the closing price. Such a low volatility does not suit anything big happening yet and we'll continue to see range bound moves for some more time.