The Indian market opened on weak note but saw some pullback and trader in narrow range .For coming session 2810 -2827 will act as resistances zone .On the other 2740 will act as support zone cracking below 2740 nifty can test 2670 levels .
Till Nifty manages to close above 2860, intra rallies upto 2860-2880 may be used to sell. Resistances for the up,move will start from 2820.
Stay with the main trend .
Today our Pivot 2794 played very promptly. Look at all those numbers and trade well.
Nifty :: As we say in our yesterday post 2725 upward channel bottom works as strong support.. Nifty made An Thrusting Line Bull candle form strong support level.. Still short term momentum is down and that’s why selling pressure seems at every high .. Short term momentum turns strong if Nifty break 2970 within 3 days.. For 19thth Feb buy on deep (S.L 2707) Sell at high.. Avoid buying at higher level buy only in deep with strictly stop loss... Resistance for up move at 2790/ Feb watch three strong support 2758/2730/2707.. Our strategy for 192825/2858/2880/2900/2940..
The markets that seemed to have dive nose down yesterday on the global cues - did not heed to anyone and closed in green. First we attempted to break the range on the upside and then on the down side – but what has happened is that we have for some reason - known to the market and market alone – played in that narrow range. The weak global cues did make the markets open in red but swung wildly led by the reliance. The swing in Sensex was almost 190 points. The reality – that has lost favour since some time now gained and the Banking that was becoming the pet sector lost badly yesterday.
Meanwhile in Asia Nikkei hit the lowest in the last four months on back of the financial stocks and 
On the candles though the candle was white – it could not pierce the day before’s black candle half way so it really cannot be taken as sign of strength. Only if we do somewhat better than yesterday – and if today’s candle supports this white candle can be taken as a reversal of the down trend we saw last two day. If not then it will indicate a continuation of the downtrend with a breather here. SO finally the much anticipated breakout did not happen on either direction. The up swing takes days to build up and fizzles out in a second and the down move with aggressive candles also die down at the same rate. We are now below the middle of the Bollinger Bands with 5 EMA firmly below the 20 EMA so that part is bearish. The ADX is bearish with the –DI above the +DI. Only thing – that I have been observing and ofcourse putting across here is that whenever we have the markets go down the ADX does not show the same vigour that it shows going up. On MACD we have a tick of negative divergence so it is bearish. RSI is surprisingly looking up and TRIX absolutely flat. We will have to wait for Jaggu to wake up and give us the TRIN. Ofcourse you can reach his blog by clicking his name and he wakes up generally just before the markets open. 
As we can see from the chart the markets did not do anything at all yesterday oscillating around the Pivot. The Support was way down around 2733 and the market never got around to test those levels. The yesterday’s struggle with FIIs and DIIs was – FIIs sold 288.45 Cr worth and DIIs bought 102.34Cr worth. See the pulls and pushes? anyway take this with the fact that on Nifty 50 Advances and decline ratio was 1. (25 Advances and 25 Declines) Ah! so that was the reason for us to be flat.
The pivot levels for 19th is as given below: -
R3 2876 as against 2951 yesterday
R2 2842
R1 2809
Pivot 2772 as against 2793 yesterday
S1 2739
S2 2702
S3 2669 as against 2636 yesterday
Projected High Range 2791 to 2826
Projected Low Range 2786 to 2751
Fib Projected High 2825
Fib Projected Low 2716
Market PULSE check by Stock-O-Meter: As suggested in the morning post, Nifty could display its strength with a positive picture despite of weak global cues but tried to post nearly +36 points at one point in time. The Nifty made a come back to show a green close from a low of 2736 to touch a high of 2806.85 before closing at 2776.15
The Reliance took support at the first support level at 1240. The ONGC could not cross the 690 level as the high made was at 689.80
The ICICI high did not crossed but came to 365 low, expected 368 level. The Relcap high touched at 387.80 low touched 371.35. The Rel infra in the morning it could trade above 521 level and 17 lakhs traded above that level and the minute it fell below the 511 support level first touché at 496 later after a recovery to 516 then fell back to 493.35 as expected.
The Nifty is down from a high of 2970 to 2757 in two days as it fell on 7th Jan from 3150 level 2750 in three days and that registered high was not crossed till date despite many global favourable news and rallies.
It seems that the US DOW likely to breach the Nov-lows but we may go close to 2500 level but the lows registered will not be breached so long we trade above 2550 level. The markets are weak to move but they are strong at the bottom as bottom fishing is seen in the heavy weights.
Today the Nifty has to cross the 2810 level in the intra day movement to exhibit its strength for future. The Nifty is weak below 2835 level and may get support first at 2685 level and next at 2650 level. The ONGC is good above 690 level and may get support at 650 level, it will become weak it breaches the immediate major support at 630-625 level. The Reliance has rallied from 1065 to 1405 lost nearly half to touch 1258 could get support first at 1236-39 level and the immediate good support seen at 1221-23 level. The ICICI is good above 389 and weak below 381 to touch 371 and 368 range from where the earlier move started. The Rel infra is good above 521-23 level weak below 511-09 to touch 493 and next at 486. The Relcap is weak below 386 level to touch the earlier support at 361-63 level.The issue of pledged shares demanding additional margin will effect the prices once the drop below by 20% to the recent supports.
The Asian markets are trading in red due to the spill over effect of US. The SGX-Nifty was down by nearly 33 points at 2723 level.
If you look at the chart, its bottom trendline is around 2680 levels which will be considered as strong support as of now.
trading below 2750 spot levels, will take it to 2680 levels.
If 2750 is held, nifty may move up to 2822 levels where it will face strong resistence.
Stay away from longs till we close above 2822 levels.
Intraday supp - 2735-2680 Resistence - 2800-2822
So we've a weak pull back after two days of fall. Considering the weak pull back it is difficult to see it going higher around 2850 - yellow arrow but if it goes there then there will be a chance to open new shorts there. If there is no follow up of this pull back move then we're straight down to the lower Bollinger Band - white circle. Please don't send me any mails asking whether there is any third possibility, because the third possibility is that I may go completely mad trading this market!!
Nifty: –
Market view for short term is not good we are not come out of the impact of interim budget’s disappointment. And more over that global market conditions are adding fuel. Technically market is downtrend and NIFTY has support around 2760-2735 and then 2685. Nifty positive trend if NIFTY crossover and close above 2890. Till then short on any rally .
BSE Sensex: –
The Support for the SENSEX is 8870/8825 and the Resistance to the up move is at 9110/9280
NIFTY (2776.15)
Support : 2760 / 2735 / 2700 / 2685
Resistance : 2810 / 2825 / 2845 / 2890
SENSEX (9015.8)
Support : 8925 / 8870 / 8825
Resistance : 9045 / 9110 / 9210 / 9280
NIFTY FUT (2763.25)
Support : 2690 / 2615
Resistance : 2805 / 2880 / 2990
BANK NIFTY (4060.7)
Support : 3995 / 3930
Resistance : 4085 / 4150 / 4240
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI down 9.44% with 16% increasing volumes indicating rollover of short positions to next series.
We expect NIFTY FUT to show bounce from lower levels with volatility
On Thursday,Opening is Flat to Down,
Stay Short Below 2770,Sl Above 2800,Tgt 2750-35-10-2685,
Sustain Above 2805,Buy with Sl Below 2775,Tgt 2825-40-70-95.
Sell ASIANPAINT Below 795,Tgt 785-780-760,Sl 800
Sell HEROHONDA Below 930,Tgt 920-910-880,Sl 940
Sell JETAIRWAYS Below 155,Tgt 150-140-125,Sl 165
Sell SIEMENS Below 220,Tgt 215-210-195,Sl 225
Sell KOTAKBANK Below 250
Sell HDFCBANK Below 865,Tgt 855/45/35,Sl 875
Sell SBIN (1071),Sl Above 1085,Tgt 1055/40
Buy IBREALEST Above 95 & TEXMACO Above 50,As Delivery For Few Days
Buy TATACHEM Above 140,Tgt 145-150-155,Sl 135
Buy STER Above 255,Tgt 265-275-295,Sl 245
FEB FUTURES
Buy BONGAI REF @ 43/44,Sl 42,Tgt 44.9/45.3/45.8/46.2/46.7/47.1/47.6 (Lot Size : 2250)
Sell RELCAPITALBelow 375
Sell RELINFRA @ 505/501,Sl 510,Tgt 498/496/494/489/484/479/474/469/464 (Lot Size : 138)
SESAGOA : CMP FEB FUTURE 89.50
Buy Above 89,Tgt 93/95
Sell Below 88,Tgt 85/82
COMMODITY
| Technical Levels for 19 February 2009 | ||||||||
| Symbol | RES 1 | RES 2 | RES 3 | Pivot Level | Support 1 | Support 2 | Support 3 | Trading Signal |
| Top of Form GOLD Bottom of Form | 15578.67 | 15720.33 | 15823.67 | 15475.33 | 15333.67 | 15230.33 | 15088.67 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form SILVER Bottom of Form | 23349.67 | 23719.33 | 24046.67 | 23022.33 | 22652.67 | 22325.33 | 21955.67 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form LEAD Bottom of Form | 54.73 | 56.17 | 57.03 | 53.87 | 52.43 | 51.57 | 50.13 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form COPPER Bottom of Form | 159.57 | 161.48 | 163.47 | 157.58 | 155.67 | 153.68 | 151.77 | Buy Signal |
| Top of Form NICKEL Bottom of Form | 494.67 | 502.13 | 509.47 | 487.33 | 479.87 | 472.53 | 465.07 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form CRUDEOIL Bottom of Form | 1937.67 | 1984.33 | 2011.67 | 1910.33 | 1863.67 | 1836.33 | 1789.67 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form ZINC Bottom of Form | 55.13 | 55.82 | 56.63 | 54.32 | 53.63 | 52.82 | 52.13 | Buy Signal |
| Top of Form NATURALGAS Bottom of Form | 210.47 | 212.93 | 217.27 | 206.13 | 203.67 | 199.33 | 196.87 | Buy Signal |
| Top of Form MENTHAOIL Bottom of Form | 509.63 | 512.77 | 516.53 | 505.87 | 502.73 | 498.97 | 495.83 | Buy Signal |
| Top of Form ALUMINIUM Bottom of Form | 65.22 | 65.88 | 66.42 | 64.68 | 64.02 | 63.48 | 62.82 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form REFSOYOIL Bottom of Form | 442.80 | 443.90 | 445.80 | 440.90 | 439.80 | 437.90 | 436.80 | Buy Signal |
|
|
| Commodity | Contract | S2 | S1 | LTP | R1 | R2 | View |
| NCDEX |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Barley | April' 09 | 915 | 930 | 927 | 960 | 970 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Castor Seed | Mar' 09 | 412 | 417 | 418 | 424 | 428 | Fresh Sell Below 417,Sl 420,Tgt 414-12/ Sustain Close Below 417 Potential towards 400 soon OR Sell Ard 427-427.5,Sl 428,Tgt 424-422 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Chana | Mar' 09 | 2260 | 2280 | 2295 | 2320 | 2345 | Buy Only Abv 2320,Sl 2305,Tgt 2340-50/Sustain Abv Towards 2385 OR Sell Only Below 2265-60,Sl 2280,Tgt 2240/Close Below Down Rally |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Chilli | Mar' 09 | 4685 | 4770 | 4849 | 4900 | 4950 | Buy Only Abv 4900,Sl 4875,Tgt 4940-70/Sustain Close Abv 4900,Potential towards 5100 soon OR Buy Ard 4760-65,Sl 4750, Tgt 4800-4830 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Undecorded Cotton (Akola) | Mar' 09 | 485 | 492 | 495.3 | 500 | 505 | Sell Below 495,Sl 497,Tgt 492/Close Below 482 soon OR Sell Ard 504-504.5,Sl 505, Tgt 502-500 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Guar Gum | Mar' 09 | 3235 | 3270 | 3276 | 3340 | 3385 | Sell Below 3270,Sl 3285,Tgt 3250-30/Sustain Close Below 3230,Potential towards 3050-100 Range OR Sell Ard 3375-80,Sl 3385,Tgt 3350-30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Guar Seed | Mar' 09 | 1495 | 1510 | 1519 | 1540 | 1555 | Sell Below 1510,Sl 1525,Tgt 1500-1495/Close Below Towards 1470-1450 OR Sell Ard 1554-56,Sl 1560,Tgt 1540-30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Gur | Mar' 09 | 758 | 765 | 776 | 782 | 790 | Sell Only Below 771,Sl 775, Tgt 765/758/Close Below seen at 745-730 soon OR Buy Only Abv 780,Sl 778, Tgt 785-790/Abv Uprally |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Jeera | Mar' 09 | 11250 | 11375 | 11470 | 11575 | 11725 | Sell Below 11375,Sl 11425, Tgt 11330-270/225/Below towards 11000 OR Sell Ard 11680-690,Sl 11700,Tgt 11620-600 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Kapas SN | April' 09 | 457 | 461 | 466.2 | 469 | 475 | Sell Below 460,Sl 463,Tgt 457/Below Down Rally OR Buy Only Abv 469,Sl 466,Tgt 475-480 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Maize | Mar' 09 | 819 | 827 | 830.5 | 845 | 857 | Sell Below 827,Sl 833,Tgt 820-807 OR Sell Ard 846-48,Sl 850,Tgt 840-835 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Pepper | Mar' 09 | 10600 | 10700 | 10825 | 10975 | 11100 | Sell Below 10750,Sl 10825, Tgt 10680/615/500/Sustain Below Towards 10100 OR Sell Ard 11070-80,Sl 11100,Tgt 11020-10950 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Potato | Mar' 09 | 515 | 525 | 533 | 545 | 555 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| RM Seed Jaipur | May' 09 | 430 | 434.5 | 438.7 | 445 | 450 | Sell Below 435,Sl 436.5,Tgt 430-4247/Below Down Rally OR Sell Ard 447-448,Sl 449,Tgt 444-442 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sugar M 200 | Mar' 09 | 2135 | 2160 | 2182 | 2200 | 2225 | Buy Abv 2190,Sl 2180,Tgt 2200-2220 OR Buy Ard 2144-46,Sl 2140,Tgt 2160-70 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Soy Bean | Mar' 09 | 2150 | 2180 | 2205 | 2230 | 2260 | Sell Below 2180,Sl 2195,Tgt 2160-50 OR Sell Ard 2248-50,Sl 2255,Tgt 2235-25 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Soy Oil | Mar' 09 | 430 | 436 | 440.3 | 447 | 451 | Fresh Sell Below 436,Sl 438,Tgt 434-32/30 OR Sell Ard 450-450.5,Sl 451,Tgt 448-46 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Turmeric | April' 09 | 3980 | 4080 | 4128 | 4190 | 4240 | Sell Below 4120,Sl 4145,Tgt 4100 / towards 4000 soon OR Sell Ard 4225-35,Sl 4240, Tgt 4200-4175 |
No comments:
Post a Comment