Markets are trading in very narrow range since last 3 week as shown on charts. We think that markets are looking for some breaking news to make or break this range. We can tell this a consolidation range too as consolidated in range if Nifty from 2700 - 2855 (+/-1%) levels.
Nifty Levels : Close : 2784
Supports : 2750 / 2725 / 2690
Resistances : 2790 / 2825 / 2855
It would be better to make any positional views for markets unless we move out of this consolidation range & close above / below this levels for minimum 2 to 3 days. That would be trend reversal for either side.
PROVISIONAL FUND FLOW FIGURES IN RS CRORES FOR 03 FEBUARY 2009 :
Fii -279
Dii -8
Fii(deri) +261 (net)
Idx fut +275
Idx opt -139
Stk fut -21
Stk opt +145
All the plans mentioned are priced for INDIVIDUALS ONLY and for personal consumption. Any distribution /re-distribution of the content made available via Newsletter/SMS / Chat box / The den to any third party is a violation of our IPR. On receipt of any information about any such distribution/ re-distribution by the said Individual and/or the third party we shall be at liberty to take legal action against the Individual/ Third Party, jointly and severally. This right does not estop us from initiating any legal proceedings for damages payable by the Individual/ Third party. The jurisdiction to try any disputes arising from this offer/contract shall be the courts at Chennai only to the exclusion of other courts.
Why Subscribe to us ?
* We track trends of stocks, bonds, forex and commodity prices, and state them as they are. Trailing stop losses are changed when necessary.
* No forecasts, No predictions. We state what we decipher.
* Interest rates, bond prices and bond yields eventually determine the direction of stock prices. We track all these four vital determinants to continually examine "conditions" of the marketplace.
* The bond market usually changes direction long before stocks do; therefore, the bond market is a leading indicator of potential trend-changes in stocks.
* Commodity prices usually trend in the opposite direction of the dollar.
* A rising dollar is bad for commodities; a falling dollar is good for commodities.
* A rising dollar is normally good for US stocks and bonds because it is non-inflationary.
* A strong currency attracts foreign money into a country's stock markets.
* Emphasis on quality of calls rather than quantity of calls
* Integrated approach in our research & analysis.
* Price alone is truth , rest do not matter. Bhav Bhagwan Hain. Bakhi sab Bakwas
* Tracking the Indian & Global Financial Markets since 1996
Nifty - 2766.65 (-108.15)
Sensex - 9066.70 (-357.54)
Short Term Turning Dates (+/- 1 Day)* -
(* Effect can start few hours to 1 day earlier)
Feb 03rd - 05th (** Sharp Swings of 5%-7% possible on both sides. - Signal Strength Medium **)
CAUTION - Protect Your Capital. All positions must be well hedged. There can be un-predictable swings in next 8- 10 Days.
Technical Outlook (03rd February 2009)
As already mentioned yesterday "Nifty is making a bullish pattern in hourly charts having resistance at 2875-2880, breakout from where Nifty may target 3050+ in coming sessions where as failure to cross this level can target 2500 in coming weeks. " Nifty, which had closed near level of bullish breakout on Friday (30th Jan 2009) which would have targeted 3000+ of Nifty, opened with a down gap of more than 40 points on negative cues from US & Asian markets & failed to cover the opening gap. Nifty drifted lower gradually to touch an intra day low of 2760, thus moving below the support level of 2770 after Nifty had made a "Double Top" pattern around 2880.
As far as, EST charts are concerned, Nifty has made bearish "Double Top" pattern & another close below 2775 can easily target 2740 & 2680 of Nifty. However, technical recovery to 2798-2822 cannot be ruled out since Nifty has declined sharply from 2882 to 2760 in few hours only. Since many important stocks are ripe for technical recovery, Nifty is likely to recover before achieving the bearish targets of 2680 etc.
As far as Bar reversals in Daily Charts are concerned, Hero Honda and Guj NRE Coke have given Upward Bar Reversal in Daily Charts while stocks like Reliance, L&T, Suzlon, PNB, Maruti, Rolta etc have given "Downward Bar Reversal"
Sector wise, most of the infrastructure stocks like DLF, JP Associates, HDIL, IB Real Estate, Rel. Infra, Unitech, Ansal Infra stocks declined sharply in addition to many housing finance, banking, power, metal, steel, IT education & sugar stocks. Only few stocks like Satyam, GE Shipping, HPCL, Spice Mobile, Indiabulls, Gail, etc. closed in positive territory. As far as A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bears in the ratio of 8:3 with 860 declines & 336 advances during the day.
In nutshell, Nifty failed to cross the crucial resistance of 2880, while making a bearish "Double Top" pattern having support at 2775, violation of which can target 2680. But in the meanwhile, Nifty is extremely oversold in hourly charts & technical recovery to 2798-2822 not ruled out where a lot of profit booking is likely to take place. On bullish side, Nifty can attempt to touch 3000+ only if it closes above 2925 for 2 consecutive days. The best strategy should be to book profit in stocks which have given bearish breakout in hourly charts & light buying is advised in oversold charts which may recover along with Nifty.
Astrological Outlook for the Week (02nd February - 06th February 2009)
Indian Stock Market - Sharp Swings likely in next 2 weeks on both sides.
Current Planetary Position - Astrologically, in Transit, 5 planets i.e. Sun, Mars (Exalted), Jupiter (Combust), Rahu (R) and Neptune are placed in Capricorn. Exalted Venus is placed in Pisces, Moon in Aries, Ketu in Cancer, Saturn in Leo, Mercury (Direct) with Pluto in Sagittarius and Uranus are transiting in Aquarius. Moon will Transit through Aries, Taurus and Gemini during this week. Many planetary events will take place in next few days like Mercury getting direct on 01st Feb, Mercury will enter Capricorn on 07th Feb, Saturn will oppose Uranus on 05th Feb, Moon will form T-Square with Sat-Uranus opposition. There can be Sharp Swings on both sides in coming days.
Coming to few aspects in transit and with Natal Charts of NSE & BSE - In Transit 5 planets in Capricorn including Sun, Mars, Jupiter, Rahu and Neptune can lift the market but presence of Rahu is capable of bringing surprise moves. Saturn - Uranus opposition on 05th Feb can also cause sharp swings on both sides (first bullish then bearish), Venus square aspect with Pluto is sign of volatility. Mars semi-sextile aspect with Pluto is a bearish signature while Sun 150 degree aspect with Sun may bring relief to bulls. In NSE Natal Chart - Tr Mars sextile aspect with Natal Pluto on 01st Feb is mildly bullish sign. Tr Sun Square aspect with Natal Rahu on 03rd Feb can also bring in volatility. T Mercury conjunction with Natal Uranus is a bearish signature. In BSE Natal Chart - T Sun sextile aspect with Natal Rahu is mildly bullish but T Sun opposition to natal Uranus is bearish. T Mercury trine aspect with Natal Pluto likely to be positive for the market.
Moon's transit through Aries is a Bearish sign but Moon's entry to Taurus can be positive. But later part of Taurus and transit through Gemini can bring in lot of volatility. However Moon's effect are not to be seen in isolation but in totality with Bullish and Bearish aspects of other planets.
Expected Weekly Movement -In totality, keeping all the planetary configuration, bullish and bearish aspects in mind, it appears, that Market is likely to be very volatile with many ups and downs in next 2 Weeks followed by a rally. Initial bullishness in market can vanish due to Sat-Uranus opposition and presence of Rahu in close proximity of Rahu in Capricorn. Caution - As there is a possibility of Sharp Swings in the market due to some planetary configurations, it is advised to protect your capital and avoid large positions on any side without proper hedging mechanism. Market can touch 3050 or 2550 or both in next 2-3 weeks
Astrologically there are "2 Turning Dates this week - both Medium". However caution is advised in all positions since different indices are showing different U-Turn dates. While some are giving indications of U-Turn on 03rd while others are showing 05th. It means we can expect lot of volatility between 03rd and 05th. Saturn-Uranus opposition on 05th Feb can bring swing of 5%-7% on both sides with in couple of days of this date. Trading/ investing in big way may be avoided.
Trading Strategy - Keeping in mind the different Astrological Turning Dates during the week, For conservative Traders "If there is decline in the early part of the week, later part may turn bullish. Similarly if 02nd and 03rd are bullish, we may see downward move on 04th/ 05th. Strict Caution is advised in Swing Trading. Do not leave un-hedged positions.
Important Dates
03rd February (+/- 1 Day)**
05th February (+/- 1 Day)**
Crude Oil / Gold / Silver/ Copper
Crude Oil is likely to show volatility in this week with rise in early part of the week. It may take upward U-Turn after initial decline on 04th. Next Week , crude may show some weakness. Gold is likely to attract profit booking this week despite some upward movement on 02nd and 05th Feb. Similar to Gold, Silver is also likely to attract profit booking during this week with occasional rise on 02nd and 5th Feb.
US Dollar/ Indian Rupee ( USDINR)
Astrologically, It is likely to see 2 way movement during this week. Initially weak, it may pick up in the later part of the week but again from 06th Fe to 10th Feb, Rupee may turn weak against US Dollar.
US Markets
Astrologically, After Initial Volatility, US Markets may turn positive between 05th Feb to 14th Feb. However Sharp swings are possible due to Sat-Uranus opposition on 05th Feb.
Technical Stock Recommendations (Short Term)
HDFC Ltd.(1410)
Stock has declined sharply from 1540 to 1400 in last few hours putting EST momentum indicators in oversold zones with positive divergences which can initiate technical recovery to 1460-1465 in next few hours. Fresh buying may be considered once the stock moves/stays above 1420 using SL of Rs.20/- & target of 1460-1465 which may be achieved soon.
Spice Tele(88.25)
Stock has risen sharply from 27 to 90 in last 3 days putting EST momentum indicators in overbought zones with negative divergences which can initiate corrective decline to 71-72 in next few hours. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 90 using SL of Rs.5/- & target of 71-72.
Tata Steel(171.80)
Stock has given bearish breakout from a "Double Top" pattern in hourly charts setting a target of 162-165 which is likely to be achieved soon. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 176-177 using SL of Rs.4/- & target of 162-165.
ICICI Bank(384)
Stock has given bearish breakout from a "Double Top" pattern in hourly charts having support at 395 which is already broken, setting a target of 360-365 which is likely to be achieved soon. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 395 using SL of Rs.10/- & target of 360-365.
Cairn India(155.10)
Stock has given bearish breakout from a "Head & Shoulder" pattern in hourly charts having support at 159 which is already broken, setting a target of 143-144 which is likely to be achieved soon. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 159 using SL of Rs.5/- & target of 143-144.
The Indian market opened with upward gap and saw choppy session .Market are trading in narrow range trading below 2747 levels it can test 2720-2701 levels .On the other side 2812-2830 will act as resistances zone .
Trend Remains Negative with Resistance at 2796
Why Subscribe to us ?
* We track trends of stocks, bonds, forex and commodity prices, and state them as they are. Trailing stop losses are changed when necessary.
* No forecasts, No predictions. We state what we decipher.
* Interest rates, bond prices and bond yields eventually determine the direction of stock prices. We track all these four vital determinants to continually examine "conditions" of the marketplace.
* The bond market usually changes direction long before stocks do; therefore, the bond market is a leading indicator of potential trend-changes in stocks.
* Commodity prices usually trend in the opposite direction of the dollar.
* A rising dollar is bad for commodities; a falling dollar is good for commodities.
* A rising dollar is normally good for US stocks and bonds because it is non-inflationary.
* A strong currency attracts foreign money into a country's stock markets.
* Emphasis on quality of calls rather than quantity of calls
* Integrated approach in our research & analysis.
* Price alone is truth , rest do not matter. Bhav Bhagwan Hain. Bakhi sab Bakwas
* Tracking the Indian & Global Financial Markets since 1996
Nifty - 2766.65 (-108.15)
Sensex - 9066.70 (-357.54)
Short Term Turning Dates (+/- 1 Day)* -
(* Effect can start few hours to 1 day earlier)
Feb 03rd - 05th (** Sharp Swings of 5%-7% possible on both sides. - Signal Strength Medium **)
CAUTION - Protect Your Capital. All positions must be well hedged. There can be un-predictable swings in next 8- 10 Days.
Technical Outlook (03rd February 2009)
As already mentioned yesterday "Nifty is making a bullish pattern in hourly charts having resistance at 2875-2880, breakout from where Nifty may target 3050+ in coming sessions where as failure to cross this level can target 2500 in coming weeks. " Nifty, which had closed near level of bullish breakout on Friday (30th Jan 2009) which would have targeted 3000+ of Nifty, opened with a down gap of more than 40 points on negative cues from US & Asian markets & failed to cover the opening gap. Nifty drifted lower gradually to touch an intra day low of 2760, thus moving below the support level of 2770 after Nifty had made a "Double Top" pattern around 2880.
As far as, EST charts are concerned, Nifty has made bearish "Double Top" pattern & another close below 2775 can easily target 2740 & 2680 of Nifty. However, technical recovery to 2798-2822 cannot be ruled out since Nifty has declined sharply from 2882 to 2760 in few hours only. Since many important stocks are ripe for technical recovery, Nifty is likely to recover before achieving the bearish targets of 2680 etc.
As far as Bar reversals in Daily Charts are concerned, Hero Honda and Guj NRE Coke have given Upward Bar Reversal in Daily Charts while stocks like Reliance, L&T, Suzlon, PNB, Maruti, Rolta etc have given "Downward Bar Reversal"
Sector wise, most of the infrastructure stocks like DLF, JP Associates, HDIL, IB Real Estate, Rel. Infra, Unitech, Ansal Infra stocks declined sharply in addition to many housing finance, banking, power, metal, steel, IT education & sugar stocks. Only few stocks like Satyam, GE Shipping, HPCL, Spice Mobile, Indiabulls, Gail, etc. closed in positive territory. As far as A/D data is concerned it was in favor of bears in the ratio of 8:3 with 860 declines & 336 advances during the day.
In nutshell, Nifty failed to cross the crucial resistance of 2880, while making a bearish "Double Top" pattern having support at 2775, violation of which can target 2680. But in the meanwhile, Nifty is extremely oversold in hourly charts & technical recovery to 2798-2822 not ruled out where a lot of profit booking is likely to take place. On bullish side, Nifty can attempt to touch 3000+ only if it closes above 2925 for 2 consecutive days. The best strategy should be to book profit in stocks which have given bearish breakout in hourly charts & light buying is advised in oversold charts which may recover along with Nifty.
Astrological Outlook for the Week (02nd February - 06th February 2009)
Indian Stock Market - Sharp Swings likely in next 2 weeks on both sides.
Current Planetary Position - Astrologically, in Transit, 5 planets i.e. Sun, Mars (Exalted), Jupiter (Combust), Rahu (R) and Neptune are placed in Capricorn. Exalted Venus is placed in Pisces, Moon in Aries, Ketu in Cancer, Saturn in Leo, Mercury (Direct) with Pluto in Sagittarius and Uranus are transiting in Aquarius. Moon will Transit through Aries, Taurus and Gemini during this week. Many planetary events will take place in next few days like Mercury getting direct on 01st Feb, Mercury will enter Capricorn on 07th Feb, Saturn will oppose Uranus on 05th Feb, Moon will form T-Square with Sat-Uranus opposition. There can be Sharp Swings on both sides in coming days.
Coming to few aspects in transit and with Natal Charts of NSE & BSE - In Transit 5 planets in Capricorn including Sun, Mars, Jupiter, Rahu and Neptune can lift the market but presence of Rahu is capable of bringing surprise moves. Saturn - Uranus opposition on 05th Feb can also cause sharp swings on both sides (first bullish then bearish), Venus square aspect with Pluto is sign of volatility. Mars semi-sextile aspect with Pluto is a bearish signature while Sun 150 degree aspect with Sun may bring relief to bulls. In NSE Natal Chart - Tr Mars sextile aspect with Natal Pluto on 01st Feb is mildly bullish sign. Tr Sun Square aspect with Natal Rahu on 03rd Feb can also bring in volatility. T Mercury conjunction with Natal Uranus is a bearish signature. In BSE Natal Chart - T Sun sextile aspect with Natal Rahu is mildly bullish but T Sun opposition to natal Uranus is bearish. T Mercury trine aspect with Natal Pluto likely to be positive for the market.
Moon's transit through Aries is a Bearish sign but Moon's entry to Taurus can be positive. But later part of Taurus and transit through Gemini can bring in lot of volatility. However Moon's effect are not to be seen in isolation but in totality with Bullish and Bearish aspects of other planets.
Expected Weekly Movement -In totality, keeping all the planetary configuration, bullish and bearish aspects in mind, it appears, that Market is likely to be very volatile with many ups and downs in next 2 Weeks followed by a rally. Initial bullishness in market can vanish due to Sat-Uranus opposition and presence of Rahu in close proximity of Rahu in Capricorn. Caution - As there is a possibility of Sharp Swings in the market due to some planetary configurations, it is advised to protect your capital and avoid large positions on any side without proper hedging mechanism. Market can touch 3050 or 2550 or both in next 2-3 weeks
Astrologically there are "2 Turning Dates this week - both Medium". However caution is advised in all positions since different indices are showing different U-Turn dates. While some are giving indications of U-Turn on 03rd while others are showing 05th. It means we can expect lot of volatility between 03rd and 05th. Saturn-Uranus opposition on 05th Feb can bring swing of 5%-7% on both sides with in couple of days of this date. Trading/ investing in big way may be avoided.
Trading Strategy - Keeping in mind the different Astrological Turning Dates during the week, For conservative Traders "If there is decline in the early part of the week, later part may turn bullish. Similarly if 02nd and 03rd are bullish, we may see downward move on 04th/ 05th. Strict Caution is advised in Swing Trading. Do not leave un-hedged positions.
Important Dates
03rd February (+/- 1 Day)**
05th February (+/- 1 Day)**
Crude Oil / Gold / Silver/ Copper
Crude Oil is likely to show volatility in this week with rise in early part of the week. It may take upward U-Turn after initial decline on 04th. Next Week , crude may show some weakness. Gold is likely to attract profit booking this week despite some upward movement on 02nd and 05th Feb. Similar to Gold, Silver is also likely to attract profit booking during this week with occasional rise on 02nd and 5th Feb.
US Dollar/ Indian Rupee ( USDINR)
Astrologically, It is likely to see 2 way movement during this week. Initially weak, it may pick up in the later part of the week but again from 06th Fe to 10th Feb, Rupee may turn weak against US Dollar.
US Markets
Astrologically, After Initial Volatility, US Markets may turn positive between 05th Feb to 14th Feb. However Sharp swings are possible due to Sat-Uranus opposition on 05th Feb.
Technical Stock Recommendations (Short Term)
HDFC Ltd.(1410)
Stock has declined sharply from 1540 to 1400 in last few hours putting EST momentum indicators in oversold zones with positive divergences which can initiate technical recovery to 1460-1465 in next few hours. Fresh buying may be considered once the stock moves/stays above 1420 using SL of Rs.20/- & target of 1460-1465 which may be achieved soon.
Spice Tele(88.25)
Stock has risen sharply from 27 to 90 in last 3 days putting EST momentum indicators in overbought zones with negative divergences which can initiate corrective decline to 71-72 in next few hours. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 90 using SL of Rs.5/- & target of 71-72.
Tata Steel(171.80)
Stock has given bearish breakout from a "Double Top" pattern in hourly charts setting a target of 162-165 which is likely to be achieved soon. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 176-177 using SL of Rs.4/- & target of 162-165.
ICICI Bank(384)
Stock has given bearish breakout from a "Double Top" pattern in hourly charts having support at 395 which is already broken, setting a target of 360-365 which is likely to be achieved soon. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 395 using SL of Rs.10/- & target of 360-365.
Cairn India(155.10)
Stock has given bearish breakout from a "Head & Shoulder" pattern in hourly charts having support at 159 which is already broken, setting a target of 143-144 which is likely to be achieved soon. Part profit booking/Short selling may be considered on technical recovery till 159 using SL of Rs.5/- & target of 143-144.
The Indian market opened with upward gap and saw choppy session .Market are trading in narrow range trading below 2747 levels it can test 2720-2701 levels .On the other side 2812-2830 will act as resistances zone .
Trend Remains Negative with Resistance at 2796
Nifty fell after gapping up at the open, took support at 2760 during "OS", rallied intra towards 2832 and fell sharply.
Nifty has closed below all the averages now except the 10DMA at 2777.
VIX-Volatality Index has broken out of the channel starting from 2253 to 3147 journey. All we require is a follow up break down in prices below 2760(5 day Low) & the 2660(2 week Low) to confirm the down trend.
There is also a potential "fast fall" pattern developing in the averages.
Hourly Rsi shows some break down.
Once the down is confirmed, we will look at the likely targets.
Nifty :: We clearly told in yesterday post that mid term momentum is still up and Nifty recover from lower level.. Still multiple top resistances is there with Inverted H &S bullish pattern.. Watch valid Inverted H&S breakout at 2885.. Required to close above 2885 given more strength for up move.. Till then our strategy for 4th Feb buy on deep (S.L 2745) sell at high (S.L 2885). In one level above 2790 momentum seems up below 2790 momentum down.. Resistance for up move at 2825/2840/2858/2880/2885.. Supports at 2745/2716/26862672/2660.
Sell INFOSYS below 1260 SL 1288 Target 1251-1240
Sell MARUTI below 579 SL 586 Target 572-559
Buy BHARTIAIRTL above 629 SL 620 Target 636-642
Buy CESC above 231 SL 226 Target 235-238-241
Buy ICICIBANK above 403 SL 395 Target 408-414-422
Nifty has closed below all the averages now except the 10DMA at 2777.
VIX-Volatality Index has broken out of the channel starting from 2253 to 3147 journey. All we require is a follow up break down in prices below 2760(5 day Low) & the 2660(2 week Low) to confirm the down trend.
There is also a potential "fast fall" pattern developing in the averages.
Hourly Rsi shows some break down.
Once the down is confirmed, we will look at the likely targets.
Nifty :: We clearly told in yesterday post that mid term momentum is still up and Nifty recover from lower level.. Still multiple top resistances is there with Inverted H &S bullish pattern.. Watch valid Inverted H&S breakout at 2885.. Required to close above 2885 given more strength for up move.. Till then our strategy for 4th Feb buy on deep (S.L 2745) sell at high (S.L 2885). In one level above 2790 momentum seems up below 2790 momentum down.. Resistance for up move at 2825/2840/2858/2880/2885.. Supports at 2745/2716/26862672/2660.
Sell INFOSYS below 1260 SL 1288 Target 1251-1240
Sell MARUTI below 579 SL 586 Target 572-559
Buy BHARTIAIRTL above 629 SL 620 Target 636-642
Buy CESC above 231 SL 226 Target 235-238-241
Buy ICICIBANK above 403 SL 395 Target 408-414-422
NIFTY (2783.9) : 2780 Is Again Imp Level To Watch Out For
Resistance : 2795 / 2825 / 2855 / 2870
Support : 2745 / 2710 / 2670
SENSEX
Resistance : 9290 / 9430
Support :9025 / 8900
NIFTY FUT (2765)
Resistance :2795 / 2815 / 2830 / 2860
Support :2750 / 2725 / 2660 / 2690
On Wednesday,Opening is Flat to Positive,(If Sustains Above 2840-2860-2875,Hold Longs For Next Day)
Stay Short Below 2790,Sl Above 2810,Tgt 2755-2730-2710-2680,
Sustain Above 2810,Buy with Sl Below 2790,Tgt 2825-2840-2875.
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI down 2.03% with 26% increasing volumes indicating short covering.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.
Buy SATYAM Above 55,Sl 45 (On Closing Basis),Tgt 60/65/70
Buy HCLTECH Above 120
Buy ACC Above 520,Tgt 530-545-550,Sl 515
Buy CANBANK Above 175,Tgt 180-185-190,Sl 170
Buy HEROHONDA Above 880,Tgt 890-900-905,Sl 870
Sell HDFC BANK Below 895,Tgt 885-875-855,Sl 905
Sell GAIL Below 200,Tgt 195-190-180,Sl 205
Sell CMC Below 300,Tgt 290-285-270,Sl 305
Sell SBIN (1092),Sl Above 1110,Tgt 1075/1065
Sell CENTURY TEXT Below 160,Tgt 155-50-45,Sl 165
FEBRUARY FUTURES
Buy NDTV,Sl 80,Tgt 90-95
Buy BALARMCHIN @ 61/62,Sl 59,Tgt 62.5/63.7/64.3/64.9/65.5 (Lot Size 2400)
Sell TATAMOTORS@ 132/131,Sl 134,Tgt 129/128/127.4/126.2/124.8/123.6/122.2/118 (Lot Size 412)
COMMODITIES
GOLD (APRIL): Gold looking range bound advised to buying above 14165 for target 14220 and sell below 14120 Target of 14050
Technical Trend Support & Resistance
Gold Now support level of 14050
And Resistance level of 14270 / 14365 and 14500 main range of 14140
LEAD (FEB): Trading range 55 to 60, wait for either side break out, thereafter it will show real power.
Technical Trend Support & Resistance
Lead has support of 54.65 and after 53.55
And resistance level of 56.35 after 56.95 and 58.05
SILVER (March): Major support 19100, weakness only below 19000, rally continues and likely 20100-20300 level.
Advised to Buy Silver around 19650-19655 ,Stoploss of 19590 Target of 19750/19800
Support : 19507.33 / 19364.67 / 19222.33
Pivot : 19649.67
Resistance : 19792.33 / 19934.67 / 20077.33
COPPER (FEB):
Support : 158.9 / 154.55 / 152.25
Pivot : 161.2
Resistance : 165.55 / 167.85 / 172.2
NICKEL (FEB):
Support : 550.7 / 539.3 / 531.4
Pivot : 558.6
Resistance : 570 / 577.9 / 589.3
CRUDE (FEB):
Support : 1952.33 / 1923.67 / 1897.33
Pivot : 1978.67
Resistance : 2007.33 / 2033.67 / 2062.33
I will not be able to say off the hand as to where we go but by seeing the Nifty candles the charts are following a narrowing trend and nearing a breakout point. I will pray that it is in the positive sense but then no points for guesses at the moment. I will again 
The day today was not really bad – it could have been but it was not.The 5 EMA is close to crossing over the 20 EMA. 20 EMA however keeps its distance from the 50 EMA. The ADX is confusing if we see in the smaller time frame – just take it in a broader perspective then it shows that whenever the the markets have gained in the last three months – the ADX has shown strength. Whenever however – the markets fall – the ADX turns weak. I will take this as a bullish sign. MACD has no divergence – so can tip any side. RSI is not bad either. Climbing towards 50 and hopefully will go beyond. Slow Stochastic has dropped from the overbought zone. TRIX is good and started looking up. So purely by the Candles – my call would be green times to come.
The global cues are mixed at the best – Asia had Nikkei down 0.62% and hang Seng was down 0.66% – Strait Times was green 0.39%. Europe is all green at the moment. FTSE up 1.13%, DAX up 1.00% and CAC 0.75%. There is still time for the markets close there so watch out where they go too.US is undecisive but green with the report that the buyers have snapped up foreclosed properties. That may actually be a good news. The Dow is up 0.28%, Nasdaq up 0.35% and S&P up 0.43%. They are choppy –and it is still a long way to go so wait and watch is the word for it.
Provisionally FIIs have sold 278 Cr and DIIs sold 7.75 Cr. With both the FIIs and DIIs selling – we closed green? impressive.
Let us see the Pivot data…
R3 2910
R2 2867
R1 2825
Pivot 2788
S1 2746
S2 2709
S3 2667
Projected High Range 2807 to 2846
Projected Low Range 2815 to 2776
Fib Projected High 2852
Fib Projected Low 2730
Guest blogger: Kumaran Seenivasan.
Stock markets and investors:
About me: I completed my Master’s in Applied Economics at the University of Arizona, USA in 2006 and since then, I have been working as a Senior Statistical Consultant in US. I Have huge interest in Stock markets and investment banking.
Introduction:
Stock market investors come from varied income strata and this piece of writing is to create a sense of balance when they opt for investments. I honestly do not have any data to back up my claims but in general I have a feeling, majority of the retail investors come to the stock market thinking that stock investment is as good as starting a business and it's a sure way to make money just because someone they know made windfall profit. But new investors have to be careful in their judgment as only few retail investors beat the market. You might argue that you could be one of those few. Of course you can if you have the requisite skills and I define it as vague as the stock market in the following few lines.
In my view, most people can make money in the bull market (If you happen to be the one who lost money in bull market, then do not ever come back to the stock market).
But the one who makes money in the bear market (If investment started at beginning of bear market) or the one who booked the profit exactly at 20,000-21,000 Sensex levels or the one who at least minimized the loses (If investment started in the bull market but still holding into the bear market) is the one who can claim that they have the requisite skills to be in the stock business. If you think you do not fall in any of these three categories, please read further.
What is special in those few people who beat the market?
The few "market beaters" whom we are talking about, do it as a passion in addition to just investment. Their mind constantly tickles around stocks and news and they relate almost everything with stock market. They are fortunate to receive perfect information in an "imperfect market"(It has become these days).
They put their brain on work rather than heart. They are the ones who would have happily remained in Titanic till it sank rather than fighting to get a place in the women's boat. They know how to find the anomalies in the company statements in addition to filtering out right information. They must surely have alternate sources of income which makes them not to fear about the loss and be greedy for more.
I can in fact nominate Krishna for passion as an example. I am sure that he must be putting in lot of time and thought in his investments. But he could have remained elusive and made money instead of writing blogs and in the process sharing his knowledge. That's where passion comes into the picture.
Note: The reason for Krishna as an example is to choose someone among us rather than pondering about Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and other legendary investors. He is in a different zone altogether. Some might argue that Dr.Krishna gets investment offers etc...But still even with hidden agenda, I would think he does it as a passion. There should be no question about that.
How the market works?
Of course we all know that stocks make money based on earnings, potential profits, macro economic outlook, company management and what not...But you still need a buyer and seller and that’s where my point originates. Your loss is someone's gain and vice versa. This is precisely the reason why stock market functions always and it will be there even if the sensex hits 1000.
How many people have contentment in their life? One guy makes money and he returns to make more to lose some. The one who gained from him follows the same pattern and I am sure not many people ran away from stock market after investing once including me. Then comes the question of who should invest in the market and what income strata they should belong!
Income Strata and Investment options:
Here I am not talking about people who have the above said skills and start investing with 25,000 rupees even with Rs. 5,000 per month job. I am talking about the people who does not belong to any of the categories I mentioned as requisite skills and invests mostly based on analyst and broker recommendations or peer pressure or own misplaced confidence. If you are someone like that (Many of them are), you have to be very careful about stock investments.
If your family income is less than Rs.5 Lakhs per year and your only ambition is to save for marriage or education, there are many other avenues including gold which provides capital safety which is the need of the hour rather than investing in stocks and mutual funds which are like Indian monsoon, which is never on time and either over flooded or inadequate.
Invest in stocks only if you are not fortunate to invest in any other avenues like buying a piece of land or gold etc...For this income group, the opportunity cost is huge to get involved in stock investment. Never invest in a stock that has 10 year average PE ratio more than 20.
(Over flooded comment is to say that rich get richer)
If your family income is more than Rs.5 lakhs per year but less than Rs.15 Lakhs, then you can probably try but please prepare yourself at least 1 season to identify good magazines, articles, blogs, and various information sources and read it regularly. This way, at least you can check if the analyst's recommendation has any valid point or not incase if you can’t decide on your own and rely on him to make the decision. But if you can buy a piece of land or build a house, do so first before coming to stock investments.
But still if you want to try your hand in stock investments, then allot a specific amount for each month and do not invest more than that for at least 2 years. I know stock markets require timely investments and occasionally you might be tempted to breach your monthly amount but I suspect the potential of retail investors to time the market. Hence, be an apprentice till you become confident about your skills. Most likely than not, you might pick up few skills in 2 years time and you can take it from there. Invest in stocks that have paid dividends without fail.
If your family income is more than Rs.15 lakh, then you probably do not need any explanation here. That does not mean you are a great investor, but I just think that you have the ability to bounce back financially even if you lose all in one year. But you have to be careful about mental aspect. If you are the one who broods over the loss all the time, then you please buy a good lock to protect your money.
Why one should not rely only on analysts?
In the market, I am not saying all the analysts are bad. But I am just saying that even the good one can't be always right. Some might have high stakes on their recommendation. Good recommendation or bad recommendation, still they make money. You might raise a question that if an analyst is bad, how he can stand in the industry? The answer is not many people remember that even for a month and also the open instinct that he might be right this time.
For example, “Anand Rathi securities” was involved in insider trading and scams etc...And even it was barred for 2 years from the BSE. But they are back in the business and people do business with them. I am sure there will be people to do business with Katen Parekh and Ramalinga Raju if they start a Broking company. So, read the analyst recommendations but you verify his claims with your own research.
Being Content:
Do not try to emulate Warren Buffet or Rakesh. Here is why. Many people think that Warren Buffet has generated 21.9 % return since 1965 through stocks. That’s not true. He made that possible through "investments" rather than only stocks. His company Berkshire Hathaway has more than 50 fully owned private subsidiaries and few of them are well known insurance companies including Geico. If you want to know what I am talking about, please go to this link to know about the Berkshire Hathaway..
So, many of his businesses make huge profits and that’s the reason even when Bank of America is trading at $6 (He has 0.7% of his portfolio), he is sitting on $30 billion cash and reports 21.9 % return since 1965. He is just not making it only through stocks. But no one can question his financial wisdom and skills. There is simply no one to match. Hence, you have to be content with your situation. Do not be greedy to take all the money in the market? There is enough for everyone over time.
You have to focus on what you do rather then what others do. Sometimes you have to focus on actions rather than results and sometimes you have to concentrate on actions as well as results. Failure happens and if you are the one who lost money, here is the way to come out of it. Look back not just look ahead.
If you look back, you might get to know that the stock market has corrected many a times before and it has comeback even more strongly. If you just look ahead, then you will not buy when you need to buy and sometimes you will invest more to get back what you have lost and in the process, you will be left with nothing. So, being content with your life and profits will reduce your worries and you will be happy one day that you have not indulged in extravagant things.
Lastly, I conclude by saying one important thing. You might lose money in stock market but that’s not the end. Never suspect you abilities on other avenues. You have to stand up and prove the world that you have it in you to be successful in life rather than taking any wrong decisions.
If you are successful in stock investments, then expand your skills on other businesses as well, so that you can hedge yourself against any unwanted market situations. Please remember long term success involves short term failures as well. For example, Rakesh might be worth 5000 crores in 2020 but still he has lost half of his portfolio in this market crash.
This is an article by Guest blogger: Kumaran Seenivasan (seenivasankumaran@gmail.com).
Education: Master’s in Applied Economics.
Job: Senior Statistical Consultant in USA.
Note: I am extremely thankful to Kumaranji for sharing his knowledge in this wonderful article. Some readers may not like his frank opinions but that is true about these unpredictable and high risk markets.
Stock Markets: Never underestimate-never become overconfident.
Investment Advice: If you are still reading this blog means you are still interested in stock markets means you have already gone through one of the worst economic crisis in the last 70 years. If you can bear this pain for some more time, you will once agin see better days. Understand economic cycles and plan your investments, accordingly. Best of luck!
Excellent articles:
1. Six Companies born during downturns.
2. Info Edge (Naukri.com) results analysis.
Statistics of the day: IMF growth forecasts for Asia.
1. IMF downgraded Asis growth forecast from 4.9% to 2.7% (November, 2008 estimates).
2. South Korea will contract by 4% while Singapore will contract by 5% in this year.
Stock markets and investors:
About me: I completed my Master’s in Applied Economics at the University of Arizona, USA in 2006 and since then, I have been working as a Senior Statistical Consultant in US. I Have huge interest in Stock markets and investment banking.
Introduction:
Stock market investors come from varied income strata and this piece of writing is to create a sense of balance when they opt for investments. I honestly do not have any data to back up my claims but in general I have a feeling, majority of the retail investors come to the stock market thinking that stock investment is as good as starting a business and it's a sure way to make money just because someone they know made windfall profit. But new investors have to be careful in their judgment as only few retail investors beat the market. You might argue that you could be one of those few. Of course you can if you have the requisite skills and I define it as vague as the stock market in the following few lines.
In my view, most people can make money in the bull market (If you happen to be the one who lost money in bull market, then do not ever come back to the stock market).
But the one who makes money in the bear market (If investment started at beginning of bear market) or the one who booked the profit exactly at 20,000-21,000 Sensex levels or the one who at least minimized the loses (If investment started in the bull market but still holding into the bear market) is the one who can claim that they have the requisite skills to be in the stock business. If you think you do not fall in any of these three categories, please read further.
What is special in those few people who beat the market?
The few "market beaters" whom we are talking about, do it as a passion in addition to just investment. Their mind constantly tickles around stocks and news and they relate almost everything with stock market. They are fortunate to receive perfect information in an "imperfect market"(It has become these days).
They put their brain on work rather than heart. They are the ones who would have happily remained in Titanic till it sank rather than fighting to get a place in the women's boat. They know how to find the anomalies in the company statements in addition to filtering out right information. They must surely have alternate sources of income which makes them not to fear about the loss and be greedy for more.
I can in fact nominate Krishna for passion as an example. I am sure that he must be putting in lot of time and thought in his investments. But he could have remained elusive and made money instead of writing blogs and in the process sharing his knowledge. That's where passion comes into the picture.
Note: The reason for Krishna as an example is to choose someone among us rather than pondering about Rakesh Jhunjhunwala and other legendary investors. He is in a different zone altogether. Some might argue that Dr.Krishna gets investment offers etc...But still even with hidden agenda, I would think he does it as a passion. There should be no question about that.
How the market works?
How many people have contentment in their life? One guy makes money and he returns to make more to lose some. The one who gained from him follows the same pattern and I am sure not many people ran away from stock market after investing once including me. Then comes the question of who should invest in the market and what income strata they should belong!
Income Strata and Investment options:
Here I am not talking about people who have the above said skills and start investing with 25,000 rupees even with Rs. 5,000 per month job. I am talking about the people who does not belong to any of the categories I mentioned as requisite skills and invests mostly based on analyst and broker recommendations or peer pressure or own misplaced confidence. If you are someone like that (Many of them are), you have to be very careful about stock investments.
If your family income is less than Rs.5 Lakhs per year and your only ambition is to save for marriage or education, there are many other avenues including gold which provides capital safety which is the need of the hour rather than investing in stocks and mutual funds which are like Indian monsoon, which is never on time and either over flooded or inadequate.
(Over flooded comment is to say that rich get richer)
If your family income is more than Rs.5 lakhs per year but less than Rs.15 Lakhs, then you can probably try but please prepare yourself at least 1 season to identify good magazines, articles, blogs, and various information sources and read it regularly. This way, at least you can check if the analyst's recommendation has any valid point or not incase if you can’t decide on your own and rely on him to make the decision. But if you can buy a piece of land or build a house, do so first before coming to stock investments.
But still if you want to try your hand in stock investments, then allot a specific amount for each month and do not invest more than that for at least 2 years. I know stock markets require timely investments and occasionally you might be tempted to breach your monthly amount but I suspect the potential of retail investors to time the market. Hence, be an apprentice till you become confident about your skills. Most likely than not, you might pick up few skills in 2 years time and you can take it from there. Invest in stocks that have paid dividends without fail.
If your family income is more than Rs.15 lakh, then you probably do not need any explanation here. That does not mean you are a great investor, but I just think that you have the ability to bounce back financially even if you lose all in one year. But you have to be careful about mental aspect. If you are the one who broods over the loss all the time, then you please buy a good lock to protect your money.
Why one should not rely only on analysts?
In the market, I am not saying all the analysts are bad. But I am just saying that even the good one can't be always right. Some might have high stakes on their recommendation. Good recommendation or bad recommendation, still they make money. You might raise a question that if an analyst is bad, how he can stand in the industry? The answer is not many people remember that even for a month and also the open instinct that he might be right this time.
For example, “Anand Rathi securities” was involved in insider trading and scams etc...And even it was barred for 2 years from the BSE. But they are back in the business and people do business with them. I am sure there will be people to do business with Katen Parekh and Ramalinga Raju if they start a Broking company. So, read the analyst recommendations but you verify his claims with your own research.
Being Content:
Do not try to emulate Warren Buffet or Rakesh. Here is why. Many people think that Warren Buffet has generated 21.9 % return since 1965 through stocks. That’s not true. He made that possible through "investments" rather than only stocks. His company Berkshire Hathaway has more than 50 fully owned private subsidiaries and few of them are well known insurance companies including Geico. If you want to know what I am talking about, please go to this link to know about the Berkshire Hathaway..
So, many of his businesses make huge profits and that’s the reason even when Bank of America is trading at $6 (He has 0.7% of his portfolio), he is sitting on $30 billion cash and reports 21.9 % return since 1965. He is just not making it only through stocks. But no one can question his financial wisdom and skills. There is simply no one to match. Hence, you have to be content with your situation. Do not be greedy to take all the money in the market? There is enough for everyone over time.
You have to focus on what you do rather then what others do. Sometimes you have to focus on actions rather than results and sometimes you have to concentrate on actions as well as results. Failure happens and if you are the one who lost money, here is the way to come out of it. Look back not just look ahead.
If you look back, you might get to know that the stock market has corrected many a times before and it has comeback even more strongly. If you just look ahead, then you will not buy when you need to buy and sometimes you will invest more to get back what you have lost and in the process, you will be left with nothing. So, being content with your life and profits will reduce your worries and you will be happy one day that you have not indulged in extravagant things.
Lastly, I conclude by saying one important thing. You might lose money in stock market but that’s not the end. Never suspect you abilities on other avenues. You have to stand up and prove the world that you have it in you to be successful in life rather than taking any wrong decisions.
If you are successful in stock investments, then expand your skills on other businesses as well, so that you can hedge yourself against any unwanted market situations. Please remember long term success involves short term failures as well. For example, Rakesh might be worth 5000 crores in 2020 but still he has lost half of his portfolio in this market crash.
This is an article by Guest blogger: Kumaran Seenivasan (seenivasankumaran@gmail.com).
Education: Master’s in Applied Economics.
Job: Senior Statistical Consultant in USA.
Note: I am extremely thankful to Kumaranji for sharing his knowledge in this wonderful article. Some readers may not like his frank opinions but that is true about these unpredictable and high risk markets.
Stock Markets: Never underestimate-never become overconfident.
Investment Advice: If you are still reading this blog means you are still interested in stock markets means you have already gone through one of the worst economic crisis in the last 70 years. If you can bear this pain for some more time, you will once agin see better days. Understand economic cycles and plan your investments, accordingly. Best of luck!
Excellent articles:
1. Six Companies born during downturns.
2. Info Edge (Naukri.com) results analysis.
Statistics of the day: IMF growth forecasts for Asia.
1. IMF downgraded Asis growth forecast from 4.9% to 2.7% (November, 2008 estimates).
2. South Korea will contract by 4% while Singapore will contract by 5% in this year.
The way we fell in the last hour from the spot resistence of 2820 levels, would have given a lot of hopes for bears.
now it would be simpler.. for positional, long above 2825, short below 2738.
on either side, the opposite will be the SL.
i am still short positionally, with SL 2845, now i will bring down my SL to 2825.
Now for Intraday.2780 is again the most imp level
Supp - 2756-2718-2705-2685
Resistence - 2802-2823-2843-2855
INDEX GAME-
BUY NF ABOVE 2777 SL 2730 TARGET 2840/2880
SELL NF BELOW 2777 SL 2840 TARGET 2730/2650
STOCKS GAME-
BUY CANBK ABOVE 178 SL 175 TARGET 181/184
BUY DENABANK ABOVE 35 SL 33 TARGET 37/39
BUY INDIACEM ABOVE 106 SL 103 TARGET 109/112
BUY IRB ABOVE 112 SL 109 TARGET 115/118
BUY DIVISLAB 875 SL 850 TARGET 900/925
BUY MONNETISPAT ABOVE 140 SL 136 TARGET 144/148
BUY PATELENG ABOVE 145 SL 140 TARGET 150/155
BUY PRISMCEM ABOVE 17 SL 16 TARGET 18/19
BUY SBIN ABOVE 1090 SL 1060 TARGET 1120/1150
BUY TULIP BUY 415 SL 405 TARGET 425/435
SELL AKRUTI BELOW 795 SL 820 TARGET 770/745
SELL INFOSYS BELOW 1280 SL 1300 TARGET 1260/1240
SELL RENUKA BELOW 72 SL 75 TARGET 69/66
SELL NTPC BELOW 176 SL 180 TARGET 172/168
SELL TATATEA BELOW 560 SL 580 TARGET 540/520
nsex Technical View :( as yest )
BUY NF ABOVE 2777 SL 2730 TARGET 2840/2880
SELL NF BELOW 2777 SL 2840 TARGET 2730/2650
STOCKS GAME-
BUY CANBK ABOVE 178 SL 175 TARGET 181/184
BUY DENABANK ABOVE 35 SL 33 TARGET 37/39
BUY INDIACEM ABOVE 106 SL 103 TARGET 109/112
BUY IRB ABOVE 112 SL 109 TARGET 115/118
BUY DIVISLAB 875 SL 850 TARGET 900/925
BUY MONNETISPAT ABOVE 140 SL 136 TARGET 144/148
BUY PATELENG ABOVE 145 SL 140 TARGET 150/155
BUY PRISMCEM ABOVE 17 SL 16 TARGET 18/19
BUY SBIN ABOVE 1090 SL 1060 TARGET 1120/1150
BUY TULIP BUY 415 SL 405 TARGET 425/435
SELL AKRUTI BELOW 795 SL 820 TARGET 770/745
SELL INFOSYS BELOW 1280 SL 1300 TARGET 1260/1240
SELL RENUKA BELOW 72 SL 75 TARGET 69/66
SELL NTPC BELOW 176 SL 180 TARGET 172/168
SELL TATATEA BELOW 560 SL 580 TARGET 540/520
nsex Technical View :( as yest )
In the last few sessions the range on upside has been restricted to 9400-9450 as was repeated in previous views. On the downside need to watch the recent low of 8630 and next 8300 which is the most important level in the next couple of months as a closing below it would signal extreme weakness.
On the upside the range if capped to 9900-10100 provided Sensex crosses 9450. Traders can position themselves accordingly in near term.
If we see the range bound moves between 8600 to 9400 none of the pullbacks or drops have had not a major large price action or volume support so every move tends to get over in a week. So expected range for the week could be 8600 to 9450 any move beyond it could lead to a nice move.
View remains as yesterday :) ... For Nifty futures the range is around 2680/2720 on downside and 2795/2830 on upside for short term. Any move beyond either could lead to some decisive moves.
Stocks to watchout for :
Reliance,BHEL hits trailing stop at cost , DLF breaks down below 155 leading to sharp drop as expected technically ( risky to trade though ) . ITC remains strong.
Message sent on sms channel n friends , clients today
Nifty 2700 pe arnd 76-84 stop of 64 tgt 95-105 in short term.2/3/2009 1:01:01 PM ( does tgt of 105 in the day )...
AXIS BANK
One can take two sides of a trade in this as per mkt conditions buy arnd 385-388 with a stop of 378 for bounce or short below 376 for a quick downmove. Could give 5-10 % move on either side.
IDFC
If the stock stays below 53 it could retest the low of 48-45 also. Traders can look for volume support in case that happens.
Reliance
This heavy seems to be the stock which would decide the next move in the index. 1380-1350 zone on upside and 1240-1270 on downside are critical levels in short term. A move on either side could set the tone for the index.
Sterlite Inds
Traders can look for a small pop up move with a stop of 256 tgt 280-294.
Triveni Engg
The stock has been an underperformer compared to other sugar stocks. A move beyond 55 would be a breakout for short term.
No comments:
Post a Comment