NEWSLETTER

Axit D Shah

Hello Friends,

Nifty after having a volatile session managed to close above 2920 level which is next immediate level after 2855. Above 2920 the next immediate congestiopn level for Nifty is 2950-2990 & in this range we may see profit booking at higher levels. The same view has been updated to our sms group members by sending sms early morning.

You can also register your self with Indian mobiles to our sms groups on this web only.

Also 2950 levels is 61.8% retracement of current rally from 2662 - 3136. This is Fibo retracement level & strong resistance zone & profit booking may come from this levels. Along with Index many Index based stocks are also close to resistance levels & we may profit booking in such stocks too.

Scenario 2 : If Nifty spot closes above 2990 then again we may see the continuation of Bull phase. So from todays close of 2934 its hardly matter of 50-60 points.

Nifty Intra day Levels :
Close 2934
Supports : 2880 / 2855 / 2825
Resistances : 2950 / 2990 / 3030

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened slightly higher note and traded positive for the day. For coming session one can keep stoploss2870 for longs, Market our in over bought zone on hourly chart we can see profit booking near 2970 zones. If nifty trade above 2870 it can test 3050-3100 zones .

Buy ONGC>721.1,728.9,730,742 sl 715.8 
Buy Akruti>971.1,982,993 sl 958.8 
Buy JSW steel>225.1,229,231.5,238 sl 220.8
Buy Maruti>611.1,615.9,619.7 sl 607.8
Buy Bajaj Auto>471.1,474.8,477 sl 467.8
Buy BHEL>1455.2,1463.8,1480 sl 1448.8

Ilango)

With intra day corrections, Nifty has kept its upward moves intact.
There are "OB" readings in very short term but no such factors are visible in daily.
Basic minimum requirement for this "e" wave is complete and hence Nifty can do either side moves from here on. ( It can go upto 3050-3100 or break below 2860 and reverse the trend).
Technically it is in uptrend and only a fall below 2860/2840 will invite heavy selling.

Hourly channel was broken today. However, the daily channel is intact. Higher number of shorts have been keeping this market buoyant thus far. One needs to check the exchanges to verify the delivery % to know the sustainability of this upmove.

rupeshydalal

NIFTY FUTURE

ABOVE 2930 TARGET 2951-2987-3025
BELOW 2898 TARGET 2866-2840-2815-2783

MARKETCALLS’ VIEW ON NIFTY FOR INTRADAY :
Today you may see market opening weak, in negative side. Still market’s undertone is very bullish. I advise buy at bottom levels, market may bounce back from lower levels. nifty is having strong support at 2868-2840.

Sell ABB below 454 SL 462 Target 445-439-430
Sell AXIS BANK below 415 SL 426 Target 409-403-396
Sell BHARTIAIRTL below 657 SL 662 Target 649-643-637
Sell ACC below 532 SL 541 Target 522-515
Sell ICICI BANK below 422 SL 430 Target 414-408-402
Sell Grasim below 1374 SL 1420 Target 1332-1297
Buy L&T above 707 SL 687 Target 726-738.

SVShah)

NIFTY (2934.5)

Suuport : 2900 / 2865 / 2825 / 2795

Resistance : 2965 / 2995 / 3040 / 3075

SENSEX

Support : 9530 / 9410

Resistance : 9745 / 9845

NIFTY FUTURE (2928)

Support : 2880 / 2840

Resistance : 2960 / 2990

On Wednesday,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Long Above 2935/40,Sl Below 2910,Tgt 2950-2965-2985-3000-3020,

Sustain Below 2905/2900,Sell with Sl Above 2930,Tgt 2900-2880-2865-2835-2755.

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI flat with 3% increasing volumes indicating unwinding of longs and forming of short positions for STBT.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade volatile.

Buy PRAJIND Fut ,Tgt 65/68/70/72,Sl 55

Buy GESHIPPING Above 220/225

Buy ONGC Above 725,Tgt 740/50,Sl 715

Buy SBIN (1164) ,Tgt 1180/90++,Sl Below 1155

Buy RELCAP Above 405,Tgt 410/15/25,Sl 400

Buy UNITECH Above 31,Tgt 33/35/37,Sl 29

Buy ACC Above 545,Tgt 550-560-575,Sl 535

Buy BOB Above 250,Tgt 265-280-315,Sl 245

Buy HPCL Above 300,Tgt 305-310-320,Sl 295

Sell BAJAJAUTO Below 465,Tgt 460-450-435,Sl 475

Sell TATACHEM Below 150,Tgt 145-140-135,Sl 153

Sell ICICIBANK Below 425,Tgt 420-405-385,Sl 430

(Rajesh Joshi)

Nifty Fut Cmp 2927 slowily and steadily is showing signs of Bottom Formation, although not confirmed. In the above chart you can notice Nifty Fut is making "Higher Bottoms" within a broader range bound market ( 2565-3144 ). Nifty Fut will face major resistance 3073-3144. In my last post dated 14Dec 2008 had indicated the short term uptrend for the markets, but after a few days up rally, market went into sideways trend

 (Dr.Krishna)

Pledging of shares came into limelight after Satyam episode. Many Companies are disclosing pledging of shares by promoters, according to SEBI recommendations. 

What is pledging of shares by promoters?

It means raising funds by promoters for their personal or company needs by pledging their shares in the company as a collateral security to either banks or Non-Banking Financial Institutions. Promoters may need funds either for personal needs or for Company expansion etc.

Why one should be careful with promoter pledging?

In Bear market, stocks sometimes suddenly lose even 50% of value in few sessions. Lenders may ask promoters to cover margins by either paying money or pledging more shares. If promoters failed to do so, lenders resort to selling of shares in the open market which lead to huge fall in stock price which is like adding fuel to the already falling stock.

Pledging of shares is either positive or negative news depending on the situation. “Why promoter raised funds by pledging shares?” is the most important point. If it is for personal needs (Satyam), it is a bad signal. If it is for company needs, then we should ask 2 questions. Whether it is for mindless expansion or wonderful business opportunity?

Note: Intelligent promoters are just disclosing the number of shares but hiding the purpose of loans which is crucial for investors to take a call on the company. They are disclosing pledged shares information in the holding companies.

Significant disclosures by Promoter on pledging of shares:

1. Maytas Infra: Promoters pledged 100% of their stake with lenders.

2. Tata Coffee: Tata Sons pledged 100% holding in the company. Tata Tea pledged 57.5% stake in the Tata Coffee. Tatas seem to have pledged everything to raise funds for their mindless expansions.

3. Tata Sons: Promoters pledged 13.5% stake in Tata Steel, 3.5% stake in Indian Hotels and 14.6% stake in Tata Power. Tatas pledged 95% stake in Tata Teleservices. Promoters pledged 28% of their stake in Tata Motors.

4. Unitech: Rumors of huge stake pledging by promoters. Bad signal.

5. India Cements: promoters pledged 82% of their stake in the company. Bad news.

6. Zuari Industries: 70% of their stake was pledged by promoters.

7. Bombay Rayon: Promoters pledged 18.43% stake in the Company. They pledged with Export Import Bank of India as a collateral security for the loan sanctioned to the firm.

8. Nagarjuna Fertilisers: Promoters pledged 24.56% stake. This is a huge concern as promoters already have tainted image.

9. Ganesh Housing: 30% stake was pledged by promoters.

10. Torrent power: Promoters pledged 21% stake of the company.

11. Aban Offshore: Promoters pledged 8% stake (voting rights) of the Company.

12. JP Hydro: Promoters pledged 60% stake to raise funds for power projects.

13. Radaan media works: 23% of stake was pledged by promoters.

14. Time Technoplast: Promoters pledged their entire 28% stake of the company.

15. Micro Inks: Promoters pledged 70% stake of the company.

16. Ansal Housing: 30% of the stake was pledged by promoters.

17. Rain Commodities: 21% stake was pledged.

18. UTV Software: Promoters pledged 23% stake of the company.

19. Karuturi Network: Promoters pledged their entire 22% stake of the company.

20. Gujarat NRE Coke: Promoters pledged 16% stake. 

21. Asian Paints: Promoters pledged 15% stake of the company.

22. Kitply Industries: Promoters pledged 35% stake of the company.

23. Great offshore: Promoters pledged 15% stake of the company.

24. Shyam Telecom: Promoters pledged 20% stake of the company.

25. Dolphin Offshore: Promoters pledged 30% stake of the company.

26. Jindal Drilling: Promoters pledged 26% stake of the company.

27. Jubilant Organsys: Promoters pledged 13.66% stake in the company.

28. SRF: Promoters pledged 32% stake in the company.

29. Kamat Hotels: Promoters pledged 47% stake of the company.

30. Ahluwalia Contracts: Promoters pledged 18% stake but they have not disclosed the cause.

31. Dhanush Technologies: Promoters pledged 34% stake in the Company for company and personal needs.

32. Mascon Global: Promoters pledged 52% stake but cause is unknown.

33. Dhampur Sugar Mills: promoters pledged 18% stake in the company for company needs.

34. Cranes Software: promoters pledged 27% stake in the company.

35. Bil Power: Promoters pledged 11% stake of the company.

36. Haldyn Glass: 40% of company stake was pledged by promoters.

37. Karuturi Global: Promoters pledged their entire 18% stake in the company.

38. Zicom Security Systems: Promoters pledged their entire 13% stake .

39. MRO-TEK: Promoters pledged their entire 38% stake of the company.


Statements of the day:

1. “In many countries the banks may be too-big-to-fail but also too- big-to-save. Chinese growth in 2009 may not be higher than 5 per cent.” - Nouriel Roubini.

2. “Stimulus plan will create 4 million jobs” – Barack Obama.


Recession news:

1. UK: “Current financial crisis is worse than Great Depression of the 1930s.” - Ed Balls, Gordon Brown’s closest ally.

2. Japan: “Country is now facing unimaginable recession.” - the chief economist of Japan’s central bank.

3. US: “Federal government is the only entity left with the resources to jolt our economy back to life”. – Barack Obama.

4. China: 65 lakh jobs were gone in 2008 and another 27 lakh Chinese people will lose jobs in the first 3 months.

5. Switzerland: UBS announced Rs 75,000 crore losses in 2008.

Must read articles:

1. Economic prospects for 2009 – Nouriel Roubini.

2. Champagne Indage is now in trouble due to excessive expansion.

 forecast

Market may open down with hugh gap. Market may down between 09.56 and 10.30 Market may steady or down side between 12.10 and 12.30. Market may close at up to previous closing.




SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS


Opening Bell Call
Buy

Dont buy anything.


On 10th February 2009 - The BSE Sensex closed at 9,647 (Up 63 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 2,934 (Up 14 points). 

Opening Bell Call
Sell

RELIANCE - Reliance Industries Ltd
RPOWER - Reliance Power Limited
BANKINDIA - Bank of India
HINDUNILVR - Hindustan Unilever Limited
ICICIBANK - ICICI Bank Ltd
MARUTI - Maruti Suzuki India Limited
POWERGRID - Power Grid Corporation of India Limited
CAIRN - Cairn India Limited
INFOSYSTCH - Infosys Technologies Ltd.
ONGC - Oil & Natural Gas Corpn Ltd 
TCS - Tata Consultancy Services Limited

Manas

Nifty closed at a very bullish note, even after an intraday dip from its resistence of 2950.

ideally nifty is long till we close below 2840 levels for a tgt of 3050 levels

however as i am writing this, dow is almost -300, so its like a slap on the face for the bulls.

closing below 2840, sl becomes 2950 and downside tgt1 will be 2750 levels and more.

STOCKSTAR)

INDEX VIEW-
BUY NF ABOVE 2940 SL 2888 TARGET 2990/3042
SELL NF BELOW 2940 SL 2990 TARGET 2880/2840

STOCKS VIEW-
BUY ABIRLANUVO ABOVE 430 SL 420 TARGET 440/450
BUY ADLABSFILM ABOVE 170 SL 165 TARGET 175/180
BUY ALBK ABOVE 49 SL 47 TARGET 51/53
BUY ANSALINFRA ABOVE 27 SL 26 TARGET 28/29
BUY ASIANPAINT ABOVE 840 SL 830 TARGET 850/860
BUY BIOCON ABOVE 104 SL 102 TARGET 106/108
BUY CHENNPETRO ABOVE 110 SL 108 TARGET 112/114
BUY DIVISLAB ABOVE 910 SL 880 TARGET 930/950
BUY DLF ABOVE 150 SL 145 TARGET 155/160
BUY EDUCOMP ABOVE 1850 SL 1800 TARGET 1900/1950
BUY EKC ABOVE 138 SL 133 TARGET 143/148
BUY IFCI ABOVE 20 SL 19 TARGET 21/22
BUY LT ABOVE 700 SL 680 TARGET 720/740
BUY MONNETISPAT ABOVE 150 SL 145 TARGET 155/160
BUY PUNJLOYYD ABOVE 95 SL 91 TARGET 99/103
BUY RELCAPITAL ABOVE 410 SL 395 TARGET 425/440
BUY WOCKPHARMA ABOVE 97 SL 94 TARGET 100/103
SELL APIL BELOW 277 SL 282 TARGET 272/267
SELL BALRAMCHIN BELOW 55 SL 57 TARGET 53/51
SELL BHARTIARTL BELOW 660 SL 670 TARGET 650/640
SELL BHUSANSTL BELOW 325 SL 335 TARGET 315/305
SELL CHAMBAL BELOW 40 SL 42 TARGET 38/36
SELL COLPAL BELOW 420 SL 425 TARGET 415/410
SELL COREPROJECT BELOW 60 SL 62 TARGET 58/56
SELL FSL BELOW 13 SL 14 TARGET 12/11
SELL GMRINFRA BELOW 79 SL 81 TARGET 77/75 
SELL GRASIM BELOW 1420 SL 1450 TARGET 1390/1360
SELL ITC BELOW 180 SL 183 TARGET 177/174
SELL INFOSYS BELOW 1300 SL 1320 TARGET 1280/1260
SELL JINDALSTEL BELOW 1075 SL 1095 TARGET 1055/1035
SELL HINDUNILVR BELOW 257 SL 260 TARGET 254/251
SELL NAGFERTI BELOW 17 SL 18 TARGET 16/15
SELL NTPC BELOW 180 SL 183 TARGET 177/174
SELL RECLTD BELOW 83 SL 85 TARGET 81/79
SELL RENUKA BELOW 78 SL 81 TARGET 75/72
SELL SAIL BELOW 85 SL 90 TARGET 80/75

NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex moves up and makes a high of 9725 close to the resistance level of 9750 and dips a bit to close arnd 9650. The breakout from the range is on low volumes so will remain range bound with supports around 9450/9280 in near term which could be 2875/2845 zone which would be levels to watch for.

While writing this Dow Jones is down 300+ points so cues would be negative but need to watch the 9280/9450 support zone for traders. 

Stocks to watchout for :

Chamble, Reliance , RPL and petronet made small moves and closed flat whereas Lanco did give a small upmove. Continue to trade with lower volumes and small stocps to conserve capital and patience for a major move which may come in next couple of months. 

As the range has reduced the stops should be kept at 3-5% and tgts of 10-12% as of now. 

Market Observations and Thoughts :

Of late have seen many amateur and novice traders punting in the options market ( Nifty )  without any knowledge or calculation considering it to be a low risk trading method which it actually is not mathematically unless you have done the calculations right. 

What many traders tend to forget is the time decay in options as in a range bound market novice traders tend to hold out of money options in hope the prices may come back with Nifty following the direction but forget with time the option premium would decrease. ( for example u buy a 3200 call at Nifty at 3000 spot suppose 10 sessions later Nifty again pulls back to 3000 the call option may move down ! ) 

Will try to put some detailed links or posting on options in the weekend if possible. 

(NOORESH)

Sensex and RSI :

Although i am not a great fan of indicators just an observation on RSI and Sensex. 

In the above chart have plotted RSI and Sensex in two windows. The last few important tops and RSI levels are marked. 

All through the last 1 year the RSI levels have not crossed the trendline and in the current move we may still have some scope before doing that. But it has not been broken till now so dont expect it to break this time around. 

So in the next couple of weeks an upmove which has technical resistances at 9900-10100 would be a level to start getting cautious and keep a watch on the RSI levels. The range bound moves could get boring though. 

 ss

Overnight, the S&P got arrested near its 50 day average and has dropped 4.9%. This slightly changes the equation for us as we're naturally going to open with a gap down. At the end of the day today, if we manage to stay above 2850 then that's ok.

 ss

Here are two charts of Nifty Futures - a one year chart below and the top chart showing you the action from October last year, with 10, 50 and 200 day exponential moving averages. The yellow resistive trendline drawn from the January 2008 low, meets somewhere around 3 to 3.1k on the price axis. The current set up is a "buy on declines" till we hit the yellow trendline and then think about opening fresh shorts there.

ss

Nifty Futures has traced out an inverted H&S pattern on this daily chart with a target of 3120~

FnO

Following is a list of top gainers and losers in the futures and options market in the NSE on 10 February 2009 for the February series:
We have added a new feature : The 5 previous days have been analyzed as to the change in the open interest over the previous trading day. This should give a better picture while analyzing the stocks.

Top Gainers
		% CHANGE	09-Feb-09	06-Feb-09	05-Feb-09	04-Feb-09	03-Feb-09
SYMBOL	OPEN_INT	IN O.I.	% CHANGE	% CHANGE	% CHANGE	% CHANGE	% CHANGE
EKC	345000	360	2.74	-1.35	76.19	2.44	0
MONNETISPA	5850	116.67	0	0	0	0	50
ABGSHIP	970750	60.75	6.5	49.85	4.88	11.95	11.62
KSK	23800	55.56	12.5	14.29	0	0	0
ASIANPAINT	3400	41.67	-14.29	0	0	16.67	9.09
DISHTV	4259050	38.99	7.21	0.18	-18.89	80.21	-1.56
THERMAX	38700	38.71	3.33	0	-4.76	0	-1.56
UNITECH	46630800	32.82	-2.28	2.79	2.61	1.31	-1.35
MLL	3395700	30.14	1.62	-19.57	15.11	13.09	1.42
HINDZINC	71000	27.93	-3.06	3.62	-4.74	13.73	7.94
PTC	56400	26.32	-20.83	4.35	21.05	58.33	9.09
BALAJITELE	86250	21.05	7.55	3.92	4.08	63.33	25
PATELENG	52500	20	8.02	3.85	0	-1.27	0
SOBHA	144200	18.05	0.58	7.76	-1.53	-2.68	1.51
RIIL	71600	17.76	5.56	2.86	5.66	-6.36	-1.39
GDL	372500	17.32	8.55	4.46	-2.61	23.66	0
OPTOCIRCUI	319260	17.23	50.85	9.94	1.26	-1.85	-0.61
HDIL	7253412	13.79	3.33	19.24	5.63	11.83	9.3
PENINLAND	682000	13.24	-4.78	112.96	-0.92	0.93	-1.82
HINDPETRO	1803100	13.13	11.15	-10.69	1.31	-0.81	-3.3
SUNTV	148000	12.98	8.26	7.08	-11.72	28	-2.91
RAJESHEXPO	2285250	12.97	2.08	6.85	0.27	2.09	-1.96
ZEEL	2223900	12.74	-4.34	-1.31	14.11	6.13	21.67
BPCL	1076900	12.59	11.19	-0.13	-0.38	-0.19	-2.9
ANSALINFRA	730600	11.51	1	-23.58	1.24	2.06	-7.87
Top Losers
		% CHANGE	09-Feb-09	06-Feb-09	05-Feb-09	04-Feb-09	03-Feb-09
SYMBOL	OPEN_INT	IN O.I.	% CHANGE	% CHANGE	% CHANGE	% CHANGE	% CHANGE
BEML	59375	-45.84	39.43	1.94	-0.16	1.48	-0.65
APIL	142800	-26.09	114.19	42.27	3.59	2	1.69
VOLTAMP	21500	-16.5	-9.65	5.56	248.39	24	4.17
CMC	2200	-15.38	-27.78	63.64	0	0	0
BANKINDIA	1887650	-13.87	-5.64	-4.57	0.2	-6.75	2.43
PIRHEALTH	122250	-12.37	---n.a.---	---n.a.---	---n.a.---	---n.a.---	---n.a.---
RENUKA	6810000	-12.3	3.81	2.12	-8.95	0	9.38
PURVA	75500	-12.21	-12.69	189.71	0	0	0
WELGUJ	4290400	-12.02	2.59	9.21	7.21	2.05	0.85
CUMMINSIND	209000	-11.29	-0.4	-1.97	-2.68	-5.09	-15.25
BHUSANSTL	44000	-11.11	28.57	0	0.65	2.68	-1.32
NAGARCONST	1859000	-10.5	0.34	3.4	2.25	-0.41	-6.74
NOIDATOLL	1336600	-10.44	6.74	55	-2.65	29.14	0
RANBAXY	2817600	-10.2	1.27	4.28	-0.05	1.09	1.35
PRISMCEM	444000	-10.11	-1.11	55.17	7.41	20	-2.17
IBREALEST	3479450	-10.09	1.38	17.53	3.24	1.19	4.16
SKUMARSYNF	3446600	-9.3	18.48	80.73	16.46	18.46	-0.59
GSPL	1134600	-9.05	-3.76	-12.37	-1.62	-6.1	-15.59
FINANTECH	87450	-8.33	-0.63	6.31	-0.82	-10.6	2.11
INDIAINFO	1933750	-7.64	-0.59	1.26	2.91	-9.31	0.11
SAIL	14280300	-7.2	11.63	33.95	3.81	3.44	-3.91
MOSERBAER	867075	-7.07	-2.84	-1.44	9.15	3.15	3.86
COREPROTEC	783000	-6.87	-13.17	6.43	-0.16	4.56	-3.01
DENABANK	1506750	-6.82	-0.96	-7.44	-4.14	-12.7	-12.62
GAIL	3425625	-6.77	4.25	3.95	1.21	-3.22	6.47