NEWS

(Inder Bhatia)

The Indian market opened on negative note but end at higher on expiry day .For coming session2830-2840 will watch zone crossing above it can test 2910 levels .On the lower side2730 levels act support zone .

(Ilango)

Daily trend has changed from down to up. 2-day swing has given a buy. However, holding 2730 low is very important. Nifty is also heading into quite many resistances in the 2800-2820 area.
With short term nearing "OB" area, one round of profit booking/ selling may be considered.

2678-2709 has given buying interest during very -ve cues of world mkts..
2808...........has not been breached for last 4 days above which 2860, another critical level.

Till these ranges are not broken, trade as per TA. So many possibilities of bottoming exist and none of them will end in a hurry. It is likely to take minimum 2 weeks for resolving the same, provided "2662" low & 2885 high are held till then.







(Ilango)

A trading range of 2690 to 2880/2900 is expected in the coming days if this contracting ending diagonal is to play out in the coming days.
A minor "b" wave for the settlement today is quite apt considering the volatality associated with all those Inflation, GDP Nos, etc.
A likely range for the day may be 2730/2740 to 2780/2800.

This view is supported by the Dow EW count of 5.4 on(Ours "D" leg up) and finally 5.5 dn (and ours "E" leg dn-5th wave ending diagonal)

In line.. Thursday, February 26, 2009

Market behaved the way it ought to have behaved on last Thursday. We were positive on RIL, Infosys, Nifty, DLF,Tata Motors and Bank Nifty. Except for Bank Nifty all were on target. There was perceived selling in Bank Nifty though it was clear that Bank Nifty has to rise as rate cut is evident. But you all know how bears attack and manipulate the prices on any given day.

PNB where we had said that stock is under bear hammering and see the price has now corrected to 300 which is down by whopping 35%. Similar was the case with BOB where we had anticipated some losses from UAE and the story is out now.

Orissa Sponge is a classical case our find where it has been on roll every day. Educom has been hammered once again after the one man army made exit at 2000 plus. The rumour has been either spread or may be even true which will come to know only when it happens. It was the buzz that Citi which owns around 9 lac shares in Educom could hammer the price below Rs 1000 in the last out effort to help out bears. Whether this is true or not or whether this is another ploy of bulls we do not know. We advise all of you to stay away from this counter for the time being as it is evenly poised on either side. If management is listening this and is capable picking 1 mn shares then they should use the creeping route to head on in case of such attempt is being made. This is suggested in vies of the fact that they had made complaints in the past the bears have hammered their share prices and offered their books for investigation.

Akruti where the price rose to Rs 1100 and then fell to well below Rs 900 is another example of failure of proper mechanism of systems on the last day which are used for rampant price rigging. It is no secret that the bear had trapped at Rs 500 to 600 levels in this counter and had been paying over Rs 100 every month since last three months finding it very difficult to roll over the short positions. Who and how will any body come know whether the settlement has taken place between the long and short side traders because this is one of the few stocks which has defied the logic of realty collapse.

Market has shown some semblance to hold its much required band of 2700 and 2800 and with few overseas funds going long in nifty it could be very interesting to watch the market movement. I think by 7^th or 8^th March we will get an indication how market will behave on year close end though the odds are in favour of upside due to window dressing required for 31^st March Balance Sheet saving exercise for various funds domestic or otherwise.

B gr are showing some activity. Seamec the stock identified by us at 40 has hit 2 upper circuits at 57 today. Some buying is seen in penny stocks too.

Tata Motors moved from Rs 131 to Rs 152 after Nano news broke out proving the tradition of CNI sabse aage and sabse tez. Now it seems 2 funds will knock off their holding in Hero Honda

MY CHART

Nifty :: After an Engulfing bullish pattern Nifty move up firmly from strong support zone and made an Inverted bullish H & S pattern .. Exactly close near H & S breakout level.. Still too many strong resistance for up move in between 2806 to 2838.. May be we see one or two days side way momentum at current level before breakout.. Our strategy for 27^th Feb up to 2838 sell at high (S.L 2836) buy on deep (S.L 2759).Below 2759 momentum once again turn negative.. Resistance for up move at 2806/2820/2838/2975/2960.. Supports 2759/2732/2679/2661..

(SVShah)

Daily Market Outlook: 27 Feb 2009

Short Covering will make pullback rally in last hour and SENSEX shut shop at 8954, up 52 points and NIFTY at 2785, up 23 points from the previous close

NIFTY: (2786)

Nifty Now important level of 2705, if sustains then possible 2805/2835 if breaks 2700 level then 2630 also possible.

The Support for the Nifty is at 2730-2670 & the Resistance to the up move is at 2820/2835

BSE Sensex: (8955)

The Support for the Sensex is 8750 & the Resistance at 9030-9150

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 25.10% with 127% increasing volumes indicating forming of long positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive.

NIFTY (2785.65)

Resistance : 2800 / 2815 / 2840 / 2880

Support : 2770 / 2745 / 2725 / 2705

SENSEX (8954.86)

Resistance : 9030 / 9125-50

Support : 8910 / 8830 / 8750 / 8700

NIFTY FUT (2766)

Resistance : 2805 / 2820 / 2835

Support : 2765 / 2745 / 2730 / 2695 / 2670

BANK NIFTY (3834.45)

Resistance : 3850 / 3910 / 4000

Support : 3770 / 3710

On Friday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 2780-85,Sl below 2770,Tgt 2795-2810-2840,

Sustain Below 2760-55,Sell with Sl Above 2770,Tgt 2745-2730-2715-2705

BSE Listing of Equity shares of Shakti Press Ltd.(526841) on 27.02.2009.

Buy GRASIM Around 1450,Tgt 1510/50,Sl 1400

Buy TATA MOTORS Around 145,Tgt 155/60/65,Sl 135

Buy RELIANCE Above 1295

Buy DRREDDY Above 410

Buy BHARTI Above 650,Tgt 665/75/85,Sl 640

Buy NEYVELI LIGNITE Above 72,Sl 70,Tgt 75/77/80/84

Buy BHEL Above 1405,Tgt 1440-1475-1495,Sl 1390

Buy ONGC Above 720,Tgt 740-755-765,Sl 710

Positional : Buy RENUKA Around 80

Sell TCS Below 480,Tgt 475-465-455,Sl 490

Sell ITC Below 185,Tgt 180-175-165,Sl 190

Sell ICICIBANK Below 325,Tgt 315-300-295,Sl 330

Sell SBIN (1023),Sl Above 1045,Tgt 1005-995

Sell GUJ AMBUJA Around 66/67,Tgt 64/62/60,Sl 70

Sell RANBAXY Aound 180,Tgt 155/45,Sl 195

RENUKA MARCH FUTURE (81.55)

Buy Above 81.7.Tgt 83.15/84.4/85.2/86.4, Supports : 79.9/78.7/77.9

Rajesh Joshi)

Few days in my earlier past had indicated that Crude had made a " Double Bottom Formation" also can be considered as "Higher bottom Formation' around 33$. After that the crude oil has witnessed a sideways & slow uptrend move. Currenty the crude is trading at 44.20$. Still the Crude has not confirmed its upward journey as it has to make a Higher Top formation. A key reversal pattern, which will be above the immediate resistance of 48.46 $. Once Crude Oil breaches 48.46$ then the commodity will confirm its upward trend.

forecast
As per Vedic Astrology after 15th April 2009 Sun, which is lord of the 5th house of Stock Market as per Kalpurusha Kundali (Horoscope), will enter in his exalted sign i.e. Aries. On the date of Sun ingress transit Moon will be in trine aspect with transit Sun. Venus, significator of wealth and luxury, will be occupying in its exalted sing i.e. Pisces and depositor of Venus will be in sextile aspect, all these planetary position indicates that BSE Sensex will touch 12,000 benchmark between 21st April 2009 and 15th May 2009.



Bulls will back on Dalal Street, there may be some positive results from leading Companies or Indian Government or Reserve Bank of India would give some stimulating package, which may boost up Indian Stock Market.

(STOCKSTAR)

INDEXGAME-
BUY NF ABOVE 2777 SL 2730 TARGET 2840/2880
SELL NF BELOW 2777 SL 2840 TARGET 2730/2650

STOCKSGAME-
BUY ADLABS ABOVE 165 SL 160 TARGET 170/175
BUY BHARTIARTL ABOVE 650 SL 640 TARGET 660/670
BUY HDFCBANK ABOVE 875 SL 865 TARGET 885/895
BUY HEROHONDA ABOVE 925 SL 910 TARGET 940/955
BUY INFOSYS ABOVE 1240 SL 1220 TARGET 1260/1280
BUY KPIT ABOVE 22 SL 20 TARGET 24/26
BUY KFA ABOVE 33 SL 32 TARGET 34/35
BUY KSOILS ABOVE 45 SL 43 TARGET 47/49
BUY MCDOWELL-N ABOVE 600 SL 575 TARGET 625/650
BUY PURVA ABOVE 38 SL 36 TARGET 40/42
BUY RELIANCE ABOVE 1288 SL 1266 TARGET 1310/1332
SELL AKRUTI BELOW 920 SL 950 TARGET 890/860
SELL AMBUJACEM BELOW 65 SL 67 TARGET 63/61
SELL BPCL BELOW 385 SL 395 TARGET 375/365
SELL IOC BELOW 435 SL 445 TARGET 425/415

(NOORESH)

Sensex Technical View :

With things not changing much in the todays session pasting yesterdays views

The view remains the same as yesterday to watch for the 8600 level which if holds we could see a possible pullback to 8978 -9270 levels also.

Any upmove will face major resistance around 9500 in short term. Only a move beyond 10100 would mean a change of trend on upside in short term. Similarly 8500 on closing basis remains a confirmation level for a breakdown.

Stocks to watchout for :

Bajaj Auto does tgt of 525+ and can still go higher. Maruti continues beyond tgt. HDFC touched 1200 could now give a pullback of 40 bucks.

ABB

It was discussed as a short pick some days back below 410 for a tgt of 380-350. The stock pulled back from 365 and tested the breakdown level. Seems its headed down again short below 360-365 for a tgt of 345-330 in short term.

Larsen and Toubro

Stock remains in a downtrend. Short below 605 for a tgt of 570-585 in short term.

Power Finance

The stock has sustained in the range of 132-144 in the last couple of weeks. A move above 145 with volumes could tgt 149-154 levels.

ONGC

There have been 2-3 tops around the range of 740. Possible trade could be short around 735-739 with a stop of 743 or buy above 743 for a quick 15-25 bucks on either side depending on your view.

Ranbaxy

October low 165 and January low around 161. The stock can see a pullback from these levels of 170-167. Risky traders can buy small qty with a stop of 164-161 for short term delivery.

ss

Gold is reacting after reaching 1500+ and for those who missed the bus, they can get in around 1380-1400 which can act as a probable support. The above chart is of GOLDBEES which is an ETF managed by Benchmark Asset Management.

S S Cheema

Everyday I get up early as my job demands it. If I did not have a commitment at night then I try to update the blog by the previous night – mostly fairly late at night – and if I do have a commitment like night flying and some late evening get together (they are fairly common) Then I try to read the charts and update in the morning. Then there are days like today when BSNL refuses to connect me and I wait for the connectivity for me to read whatever little research I can and then post the article. 24 hours of no net connectivity was what it was like today and that is the reason I just could not post a message – leave aside a sorry message for not updating. After that I generally have flying in the morning that I finish around 10 – and after debriefing the pilots I go and try to come online to see where the markets are headed to. I then open the ICICI and indiabulls to see can track my favourite stocks. Now after a glance and once again seeing my blog / posting messages on other blogs I am off to office work. Then I go home around 2:30-3:00 and see the markets before closing. THe way the things are going – frankly I am confused. I cannot and will not speak for others – but right from jhunjhunwalla to all others on the idiot box are also changing their statements on hourly basis. Weak now, Now weaker – showing resilience, some strength returning and blah blah blah. The fact of the matter remains that no one really knows. The day the markets were dropping and giving red candles – I really felt that there is strength and resilience in the markets, now when they are inching up – I feel there is weakness in the market. The gold is at all time high and I feel that it has reached somewhat unwarranted levels. The crude is at such low levels that I feel it is unwarranted. What I feel is that gold should correct down and as it comes down some of the money will enter the markets and the liquidity will improve – however on the other hand the crude should see better days ahead and should swing up raising fresh worries of increasing fuel bill here along with fuelling inflation. Well all this is hypothetical and only time can prove or disprove it.

I had expected a weak market today as yesterday – though we had a white candle – that feel good factor was missing. Then we had a weak session. the markets recovered today towards the close – and GOD only knows what we have in store for tomorrow. The Global cues are like this --- Nikkei closed flat after remaining the entire day in green to close 0.04% in red. Hang Seng was down by 0.85% and Strait Times was up by 0.04%. Japan is the worst at the moment as I see it. Europe opened green and finished green – FTSE was up by 1.73%, Dax up 2.51% and CAC up 1.78%. The US markets are topsy turvy to say the least. They were green – went red – went green and are presently red as Obama has pulled back the curtain over the 10 Year Budget plan. He has by and large signalled that they will have sweeping Health reforms and the fiscal deficit will be reduced. That he says will be partly funded by increase of taxes collected from high-income Americans. As always it will be interesting to see the US closing tonight.

Let us see the technicals – There was a nice white candle on nifty. The bodies of the last two white candles are so posed that we can take them as a single big white candle. Both inclusive – the candle pierce the black candle that we saw on Feb 20th. We have actually moved away from the lower end of the Bollinger band and the 5 EMA is looking up – may attempt a 20 EMA crossover. The volumes were fairly high and most can be contributed to the square off/rollover to the next session. The 20 EMA is around 2820-25 level so that is how – we will be comfortable only if the markets cross that level. On ADX the –DI has blipped down and the green too has blipped down. The fight between the red and green will go on for some time to come. The negative divergence of the MACD has reduced somewhat. RSI is looking up suddenly and seems bullish. TRIX still looks down and that is not a good sign. The Slow stochastic that were in the oversold territory are now mid way to becoming overbought – so make hay while the sun shines. There is all the possibility for a good day tomorrow with better participation of the markets.

Let us see the pivot levels because at the crossroads where we are – it will take a sudden and an interesting turn – whenever it does..

R3 2863
R2 2837
R1 2811
Pivot 2771
S1 2745
S2 2705
S3 2679
Projected High Range 2791 to 2824
Projected Low Range 2770 to 2737
Fib Projected High 2814
Fib Projected Low 2713

In all this I almost forgot to mention that inflation is now at 3.36% and we may have some more measures just before the ban for elections come into vogue. That means there is some good news still in the air. Best of luck for tomorrow.