Hello Friends,
Markets were in Profit booking mode Pre & Post Budget sessions. Updated here with Nifty weekly charts where it clearly shows Channel Trendline resistance. In our previous posts we have mentioned about Fibo resistance levels close to 2955. Also Multiple tops were also seen around these levels making markets come down due to profit booking.
NIFTIEE Intra day Levels : Close 2848
Supports : 2825/2810/2750
Resistance : 2880/2925/2955
Nifty likely to stay in range of 2750-2950 which also forms a Triangle. Breakout or Break down from this Triangle could give sharp Volatile moves on either side.
Indian markets scaled high last week as mentioned holding the levels though volume support fizzled out in the last few sessions. The US markets on Friday closed 1% down and this morning Asia is flat and mixed. The Japanese and UK's economy further shrinked and some bad set of data was released indicating that the situation is still dicey and recession concerns are deepening. However, in US the Obama's plan of stimulus for reviving economy had been passed by Congress but many analyst and markets players across the globe dented the sentiments again by popping comments about the plan, its effectiveness and finally that it sounds to be just a small and not enough for the deepest concern faced by the world.
Back home, the Rail Budget was as friendly as a common man could dream of and today the main Interim Budget will be presented by the acting Finance Minister. The markets will closely watch this event, however, a lot has been already chewed by the rumor mill about the Two-Phase stimulus package announcement and reforms to rural development along with reviving and helping the Export sector, Textiles, Realty & Construction sectors. The Indian Indices are now left with this main cue which will be finally flagged off today. Markets are likely to scale up or rather behave with rangebound moves during budget announcement and then in Second half session might face some selling pressure. Moreover, Nifty had closed near 2850 mark which sends a wave that good trigger in budget can help Nifty touch the 2980/3013 levels and for any further upside 3013 should be holded finely.
NIFTY LEVELS:
RESISTANCE: 2980/3013/3043/3084.
SUPPORTS: 2907/2865/2834/2793.
Nifty has a strong support at 2865 level and breaching this would further test 2834. These two support levels are acting from last few sessions also and remain intact for today also. However if Nifty sustained 2980 it can move till 3013 but might stuck there till 3027 levels. If sustained can spark uptill 3043-49. I personally believe that selling should creep in now at higher levels.
The main event was Budget and now a small dip can be expected.
GLOBAL CHECK:
1.U.S. stocks fell the most since November this week after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner failed to convince investors that his bank rescue will work. [FRIDAY]
2.Japan’s economy shrank at an annual 12.7 percent pace last quarter, the most since the 1974 oil shock, as recessions in the U.S. and Europe triggered a record drop in exports.
3. GDP in Japan fell drastically in third straight quarter.
4.The U.K. economy will shrink at almost twice the pace previously forecast this year as the credit famine plunges the nation deeper into the worst recession in almost 30 years, the Confederation of British Industry said.
5.Reports on the U.S. housing market and unemployment, German investor confidence as well as earnings from Daimler AG, Nestle SA and BNP Paribas SA may move European equity markets next week.
6.Asian finance and materials stocks fell as Japan’s economy shrank the most since 1974 and Group of Seven finance chiefs said the economic slowdown will persist through most of 2009. Technology shares advanced.
All set of bad news across the Globe can easily make out sense that recession fears are now digging out in full stream and the condition is getting worst, no major package or plan could easily satisfy the market players and analysts. The trend is down and small good cues can only make the sentiments turm in green for some time but any major reversal any time soon looks not that easy. So trade accordingly. Indian markets will have their final piece of news churned in the session and now selling around 2980 or 3k+ is more sure rather than buying.
BUY Larsen and Toubro Stop Loss 657 Target 789
BUY Reliance Capital Stop Loss 405 Target 465
BUY Power Grid Corporation of India Stop Loss 87 Target 115
Was it the "c" of the 2nd wave of the 5th down ended yesterday and we are in 5.3???
Was it the "e" wave of the 4th Triangle ended yesterday or one more "abc" pending?
Was it the "g" leg of the "X" (Bow Tie Diametric) ended yesterday??
All possibilities exist & more too, some bullish. Channel break should guide us. A faster retracement of the last rise from 2879 to 2970 has happened today suggesting a reversal. Follow up fall after short term bounce is to be expected. 2 & 5 day swing reversal has also happened.
TA:
Nifty closed below short term avg & reversing into downtrend with a last support being the 20DMA at 2820-2825. A bounce is due for short term if 2820 is not broken towards the 50DMA at 2880. If Nifty continues to trade within the channel, it may attempt to go past 2970. As channel trading has been quite useful during these corrective moves, a fall below todays low should be seen as a confirmed reversal.
With US mkts closed today, I suspect a bounce to happen tomorrow keeping most guessing??
A likely range may be 2825/2840 -2860- 2880/2920.
Strategy next 5 days : Already overbought, reaction came from 61.8% corr. level. Blue channel broken, lows are now testing lower end of Black channel. Support here can see recovery to 2850-70 or 2915. Cover shorts if required. Maintain shorts, however, if the support fails to hold.
Half-Hourly Chart)
Today’s Strategy : Oversold. Trade long if opening lows hold near 2800 or about yesterday’s low of 2821. TG 2840 / 2870 / higher. SL below opening lows. Book / reverse if fails to sustain at any of the TG levels and / or breaks 2800 decisively. Maintain shorts if trades consistently below 2800.
Nifty :: We clearly indicate such kind of correction in our yesterday post ..Nifty exactly close at strong support 2848.. Selling pressure seems near 61% correction level and unable to give breakout of this resistance level ... Now watch strong support for 17th Feb in between 2780 to 2722.. Last hope for this upward movement at 2722 (rising channel bottom).. In one level above 2848 momentum seems up, below 2839 momentum down.. Our strategy for 17th Feb Below 2839 sell at high (S.L 2877) buy on deep and above 2848 buy on deep (S.L 2839) sell at high.. Resistance for up move at 2877/2894/2906/2936/ 2961.. Supports at 2815/2780/ 2762/2750/ 2722..(Avoid shorting near highlighted support zone)
Sell RELCAPITAL for a target of 384,372
Sell EDUCOMP for a target of 2000, 1960
Sell RELINFRA for a target of 520, 514
Sell ICICIBANK for a target of 397,388
Firstly it has been copied from the Rueters India
Secondly the update is in the article below this one...
COMMENTS ON ECONOMIC SITUATION:
* "Conditions in the year ahead are not likely to be normal and, therefore, the high fiscal deficit is inevitable. We will return to (fiscal) targets once the economy is restored to its recent trend growth path."
* "Extraordinary economic circumstances merit extraordinary measures. Now is the time for such measures.
"Our government decided to relax FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act) targets in order to provide much needed demand boost to counter the situation created by the global financial meltdown.
"Indeed, depending on the response of the domestic economy and the revival of the global economy, there may be a need to consider additional fiscal measures when the regular budget is presented by the new government after the elections.
" However, the medium term objective must be to revert to the path of fiscal consolidation at the earliest."
* "Since the scope for revenue mobilisation is bound to be limited in a period of economic slowdown, any increase in plan expenditure will increase the fiscal deficit.
"Indeed, we may have to consider additional plan expenditure of anything from 0.5 percent to 1.0 percent of the GDP and gear up our systems accordingly."
* "The recent developments have also brought out the need for accelerating the pace of policy reforms, including in the financial sector, to make the economy more competitive.
"The economic regulatory and oversight systems have to be made more efficient and effective to bring the economy back to the 9 percent growth path at the earliest."
---------------------------------------------------------------
ESTIMATES FOR 2009/10 :
* Total expenditure seen at 9.532 trillion rupees ($195 billion)
* Plan expenditure seen at 2.851 trillion rupees
* Non-plan expenditure seen at 6.681 trillion rupees
* Defence allocation increased to 1.417 trillion rupees
* Food, fertilizer and petroleum subsidies seen at 955.79 billion rupees.
* Gross budgetary support seen at 2.85 trillion rupees
* Total tax receipts, at current taxation levels, seen at 6.713 trillion rupees
* Net tax revenue seen at 5 trillion rupees
* Corporate tax receipts seen at 2.44 trillion rupees
* Income tax receipts seen at 1.35 trillion rupees
* Excise receipts seen at 1.11 trillion rupees
* Customs duty receipts seen at 1.10 trillion rupees
* Tax-to-GDP ration estimated at 11.1 percent, rising to 14.4 percent in 2010/11 and 15 percent in 2011/12
* Revenue expenditure seen at 8.481 trillion rupees
* Revenue deficit seen at 4 percent of GDP. Hopes to wipe out revenue deficit by 2010/11
* Fiscal deficit seen at 5.5 percent of GDP.
* Gross market borrowing seen at 3.62 trillion rupees
* Net market borrowing seen at 3.09 trillion rupees
* Expects to raise 11.2 billion rupees from stake sales
* Profits, dividends from state-run firms seen at 369.85 billion rupees
--------------------------------------------------------------
POLICY MEASURES ANNOUNCED for 2009/10:
* Extends interest subsidy of 2 percent on pre- and post-shipment credit for textiles, carpets, leather, gem & jewellery, marine products and small and medium enterprises, till Sept. 30, 2009
* To recapitalise public sector banks over next two years to help maintain capital to risk weighted assets ratio (CRAR) of 12 percent
* To continue providing farmers interest subsidy for short-term crop loans upto 300,000 rupees at 7 percent per year
* Social security nets need to be strengthened.
* Rural job schemes to get 301 billion rupees in 2009/10.
* Rural health spending 120.7 billion rupees.
* Midday meals scheme for schools to cost 80 billion rupees.
* Urban renewal spending in 2009/10 at 118.4 billion rupees.
* Rural sanitation spending seen at 12 billion rupees for next financial year.
----------------------------------------------------------------
REVIEW OF 2008/09:
* Economy seen growing at 7.1 pct
* Fiscal deficit seen at 6 pct of GDP against previously targeted 2.5 pct
* Revenue deficit seen at 4.4 pct of GDP against previously targeted 1 pct
* April-November 2008 foreign direct investment up an annual 45 percent at $23.3 billion
* Total expenditure seen higher at 9.010 trillion from earlier estimate of 7.509 trillion
* Plan expenditure seen higher at 2.830 trillion from earlier estimate of 2.434 trillion
* Non-tax revenue seen higher at 962.03 billion rupees from previous estimate of 957.85 billion rupees
* Tax collections seen lower at 6.279 tillion rupees from previous estimate of 6.877 trillion rupees. Shortfall on fiscal measures taken to counter impact of the global slowdown on the Indian economy
* Revenue deficit seen higher at 4.4 percent of GDP, from earlier target of 1 percent of GDP
* Fiscal deficit seen rising to 6 percent of GDP, from earlier target 2.5 percent of GDP
* Outlook for foodgrain production encouraging despite high base of 230 million tonnes produced in 2007/08, on normal rainfall
* Weathered the crisis of inflation, but no room for complacency
* Foreign direct investment into India rose an annual 45 percent to $23.3 billion between April and November 2008
* Total debt waiver and debt relief so far amounting to 653 billion rupees, covering 360 million farmers
* National Investment Fund corpus at 18.15 billion rupees as of Dec. 31, 2008
* Non-performing assets of public sector banks down to 2.3 percent as on March 31, 2008
Did we expect too much from the budget (call it interim, vote on account or anything) – the answer is yes and when we found out that there is nothing that the govt plans to do at the moment – the disappointment was equivalent to 100 nifty points. The point now is – is this a trigger for going down and testing new levels or 100 odd points more and the markets will start looking for something else from the govt pre elections ban. This debate will go on for some time to come and where it eventually takes us – we have to do nothing but wait and watch. Seen the statistics? The FIIs sold 45.33Cr and DII bought 189.52Cr (provisional data) – Now Now – then why did we do the fall thing? The advance decline ratio too was bad with 232 advances and 957 declines, 38 unchanged with the AD ratio 0.2424. All this is fine but still I am – or let us say was pretty sure that the market had some steam left to move up. So just let’s wait and see. The recession is here and a reality – we cannot ignore. Probably we had too high an expectations from the budget. The deficit has grown, there is expenditure only in Defence and some Farm SOPS that have been the worthwhile proposals. The UPA did this exercise only perhaps to highlight their achievements. All the same I still feel we still have a chance to settle down and see decent levels on the upside perhaps. 
The Asian markets were moderately down and so was Europe. The markets in US remain closed so that part of the input is missing. Asia has opened weak with Nikkei hovering at –1.2% in red, Hang Seng down 1.93% and Strait Times down 0.71%.
The candles yesterday was big and black and on candle ate away the good work done by white candles since Feb 6th. The volumes were the same or perhaps slightly less than Friday. The ADX is still bullish – so lage raho munnabhai – might work. The MACD divergence is positive – but at this rate we will soon see a negative divergence. The RSI is looking down and has crossed below the 50 marker. Slow Stochastic is with the red line below the blue line and both the lines well out of the overbought zone. This all is okay – but what should we derive out of all this? I frankly feel that we will get over the budget blues and after seeing an odd day of negative closing may again start going up. The markets as of now are suppressed more than warranted and should go up a bit before falling – and ofcourse the manipulators can definitely come up with some more reasons as to why the we should go up – like looking forward to some measures before the election commission ban an doling out populist schemes.
The pivot levels for today are as give under: -
R3 3067 as against 3042 yesterday
R2 2994
R1 2921
Pivot 2888 as against 2937 yesterday
S1 2807
S2 2766
S3 2693 as against 2833 yesterday
Projected High Range 2900 to 2957
Projected Low Range 2948 to 2891
Fib Projected High 2984
Fib Projected Low 2807
Crude Oil on Day chart we can notice that is has formed a "Double Bottom Pattern" which indicates a short term support around 33$. The immediate resistance for the Crude Oil is 42-45-51$. In my earliert post I had indicated the crude is is sideways trend and exhibiting weakness.
Good Budget news:
1. The government made a provision of Rs.100 crore in the interim budget for 2009-10 for its proposed “unique identification” project. Bartronics is the front runner for pilot project.
2. Rs 30,000 crore for Rural Employment scheme. 70% of money will reach politicians but not poor people. I call it as "Political Employment Scheme".
3. Rs 2,360 crore for Delhi (commonwealth games).
4. Government allocated Rs 40,900 crore for the Bhart Nirman project.
5. Increased allocation to Defence and Rural Development.
Economic statistics:
1. Government estimates: Fiscal deficit at 5.5% of GDP by March, 2010.
My estimate: Fiscal deficit at 8-9% of GDP by March, 2010.
Indian Government is once again underestimating the fall in future tax collections and overestimating the GDP numbers. We need aggressive stake sales in PSUs and immediate transparent 3G auction from Government to control fiscal deficit. This Government has neither vision nor guts to take bold decisions in extraordinary times.
2. Total value of official pledged shares: Rs 42,000 crore.
Total value of unofficial pledged shares: Rs 90,000 crore. When willn we know about them?
Highlights of the interim budget:
1. Fiscal deficit is expected to be around 6% of GDP for current financial year and is expected to be 5.5% of GDP in the next financial year. This is the highest deficit for India in 18 years.
2. Government expected fiscal deficit just 2.5% of GDP but it rose 100% above estimates due to drastic fall in tax collections.
3. Indian Government is expecting 7% GDP growth rate in this financial year.
4. The budget for the full financial year starting April 1 will be passed once the new government is elected.
5. Investors were shocked by absence of tax sops while Corporates were shocked by absence of stimulus packages in the budget.
6. Government’s controlled measures may help to save the “India’s investment rating”. We have to see how rating agencies will react to the news of 6% fiscal deficit.
7. Auto and construction sectors are shocked as they expected some sops.
8. Finance Minister failed to direct economy in these trying times and was intimidated by spiralling fiscal deficit.
9. This budget will come into effect from April 1st onwards and will help in increasing rural consumption as Government allocated 30,100 crore for Rural Employment Programme.
10. FM has not taken any measures to increase the consumption power of people.
Interim budget is a non-event but BSE Sensex lost 3.4% as investors expected some sops for sectors like Auto, Real Estate and Infrastructure. Government and RBI seem to be keeping some resources for troubled times. We may expect rate cuts from RBI in March, 2009.
Elections and Economy:
Election mania will start from March 1st week onwards. FIIs may not look at Indian Stock market till the formation of new Government. According to current trends, Third Front is in the advantageous position due to BSP, AIADMK, TDP and CPM. AIADMK, CPM and BSP will determine the future Prime Minister candidate- that will be another bad news for markets.
Click here to know more about India Interim budget.
Stock Market news:
1. According to recent Starcom-Mediavest group, people across the country are now actively reducing their consumption. Surprisingly, Consumption cuts are high in high end families (SEC A). People are now shopping for their needs only but not for their desires.
2. 25,000 apartments are ready for auction in Hyderabad as banks are in overdrive to reduce NPAs. According to local media, many houses belong to young software engineers.
Recession news:
1. USA: General Motors (GM) company is on the verge of bankruptcy.
2. Japan economy is now reaching 1974 recession levels with further downgrade scope.
Pledged shares:
1. Videocon promoters pledged 36.5% stake of the company over 10 years for company expansion needs.
2. Like Tatas, Vijay Mallya pledged everything to save Kingfisher and other unnecessary activities. Mallya is now planning to sell stake in Aventis Pharma. Money is moving from good companies to bad assets. Does he really need Formula 1 team? Honda already exited and Reynaults is now in trouble. Promoters pledged 43% of Kingfisher Airlines stake.
3. Reliance Communications promoters pledged 20% of promoter stake (13% of company stake). Anil Ambani is gradually losing the "Mobile war" to Sunil Mittal. Reliance Infra promoters pledged 16% stake of the company. Why is this pledging-buy back by Reliance Infra promoters?
4. Koutons Retail promoters pledged 26.4% stake of the company.
5. Unitech promoters pledged 50% of the company stake. Promoters pledged their entire 63% stake.
6. Subhiksha promoter pledged his entire 59% stake.
7. Dr Reddys promoters pledged 6% stake of the company.
8. Apollo Hospital promoters pledged 18% stake of the company.
9. GMR Infra promoters pledged 12.5% stake of the company.
10. Promoters of Essar Shipping pledged 15% stake of the company while promoters of Essar Oil pledged 33.5% stake of the company.
11. Cinemax India promoters pledged 41% stake of the company.
12. Sterling Biotech promoters pledged 27% stake of the company. Promoters of Ess Dee Alluminium and REI Agro pledged 11% stake of the company.
13. Promoters of MIC Electronics pledged 22% stake of the company.
Trackle quote: A horse cannot gain weight if not fed with extra fodder during the night; a man cannot become wealthy without earnings apart from his regular salaries.
Market may open down. Market would be volatile . Market may up between 11.40 and 12.10 Market may steady or up side between 14.00 and 14.27. Market may close at down or near to previous closing.
SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS! LEAVE A COMMENTS
Opening Bell Call
Buy
RELIANCE - Reliance Industries Ltd
NTPC - NTPC Limited
ASIANELEC - Asian Electronics Ltd
HCC - Hindustan Construction Co. Ltd
DRREDDY - Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd.
IDFC - Infrastructure Development Finance Company Limited
RNRL - Reliance Natural Resources Limited
On 16th February 2009 - The BSE Sensex closed at 9618 (down 28 points) while the NSE Nifty closed at 2925 (down 8 points).
Opening Bell Call
Sell
GTLINFRA - GTL Infrastructure Limited
SELMCL - SEL Manufacturing Company Limited
BHARTIARTL - Bharti Airtel Limited
CENTURYTEX - Century Textiles & Industries Ltd
Technical Analysis for 17th February 2009
BSE-SENSEX - Major Resistance - 9407, 9471, 9535, 9650, 9765, 9829, 9893, 9957
BSE-SENSEX - Major Support - 9292, 9177, 9113, 9049, 8934, 8819, 8704, 8589
NSE-NIFTY - Major Support - 2880, 2844, 2807, 2787, 2766, 2730, 2693, 2657
NSE-NIFTY - Major Resistance - 2901, 2921, 2958, 2994, 3015, 3035, 3056, 3076
BUY NF ABOVE 2840 SL 2777 TARGET 2880/2940
SELL NF BELOW 2840 SL 2880 TARGET 2777/2650
STOCKS GAME-
BUY AMTEK AUTO ABOVE 64 SL 62 TARGET 66/68
BUY BATAINDIA ABOVE 90 SL 88 TARGET 92/94
BUY DIVISLAB ABOVE 945 SL 925 TARGET 965/985
BUY HEROHONDA ABOVE 935 SL 925 TARGET 945/955
BUY SUNTV ABOVE 175 SL 172 TARGET 179/183
BUY UNIPHOS ABOVE 101 SL 96 TARGET 106/111
SELL ACC BELOW 560 SL 570 TARGET 550/540
SELL AKRUTI BELOW 1110 SL 1130 TARGET 1090/1070
SELL APIL BELOW 268 SL 272 TARGET 264/260
SELL BALRAMCHINI BELOW 55 SL 57 TARGET 53/51
SELL DABUR BELOW 91 SL 93 TARGET 89/87
SELL DISHTV BELOW 26 SL 28 TARGET 24/22
SELL GESHIP BELOW 190 SL 195 TARGET 185/180
SELL GRASIM BELOW 1330 SL 1350 TARGET 1310/1290
SELL HINDPETRO BELOW 288 SL 292 TARGET 284/280
SELL HDFC BELOW 1500 SL 1530 TARGET 1470/1440
SELL IDEA BELOW 49 SL 51 TARGET 47/45
SELL INFOSYS BELOW 1220 SL 1240 TARGET 1200/1180
SELL JINDALSTEL BELOW 1010 SL 1025 TARGET 995/970
SELL M&M BELOW 310 SL 320 TARGET 300/290
SELL NTPC BELOW 178 SL 180 TARGET 176/174
SELL OFSS BELOW 675 SL 695 TARGET 655/635
SELL POLARIS BELOW 48 SL 50 TARGET 46/44
SELL POWERGRID BELOW 88 SL 90 TARGET 86/84
SELL PRIME BELOW 21 SL 22 TARGET 20/19
SELL REC BELOW 81 SL 83 TARGET 79/77
SELL RELIANCE BELOW 1320 SL 1350 TARGET 1290/1260
SELL RENUKA BELOW 84 SL 86 TARGET 82/80
SELL SAIL BELOW 86 SL 88 TARGET 84/82
SELL SESAGOA BELOW 90 SL 93 TARGET 87/84
SELL WWIL BELOW 15 SL 16 TARGET 14/13
Sensex Technical View :
Todays 3.4% fall stops right on the lower line of the blue channel, keeping alive the hopes(!) of a pullback tomorrow. This market is so crazy, anybody successfully trading it deservers some kinda brilliancy award. At the same time it makes you think and come up with different ideas - see, I've divided the market into two roughly equal zones. The middle line is the neutral zone, anything above is +1 and anything below is -1. So since we're sitting on the middle, the outlook for tomorrow is neutral! Crazy markets need equally crazy ideas!
Yesterday, I pulled a fast one on EW and received mails from some billion people who thought I was serious! I've rejected all those comments but published a couple of ones which are representative of the kind of crap I received. Come on guys, don't get bombed by the markets so much, that you completely lose your sense of humor!
BSE Sensex: (9305) - Not much was expected from the interim budget. Valuations look attractive and it is a good time for investors to accumulate good in the portfolio. the budget has had no positive effect on the market and the market has cracked closing in the negative closing right on our support. Some of the Sensex heavyweight stocks are showing bearish signs and so it would be wise to stay on the short side of the market
Mixed global cues and disappointment on interim budget expectations saw the market shut shop lower today. Sensex ended at 9305, down 329 points and Nifty at 2848, down 99 points from the previous close
The support for the Sensex is 9180-9050 and the resistance to the up move is at 9440
Nifty (2849): The support for the Nifty is at 2810-2780 and the resistance to the up move is at 2885
MKT COMMENTS
NIFTY FUT OI down 7.75% with 54% increasing volumes indicating not only unwinding but forming of fresh shorts too.
We expect NIFTY FUT to trade negative.
NIFTY (2848.5)
Support : 2820 / 2800 / 2780 / 2755
Resistance : 2885 / 2905 / 2925 / 2945 / 2975 / 3000
SENSEX (9305.45)
Support : 9180 / 9050
Resistance : 9440 / 9535 / 9765
NIFTY FUT (2831.5) : NIFTY in Bearish Zone Since Cannot Cross & Sustain 2860/2885 Zone (Can Hold Shorts,Sl 2885)
Support : 2820 / 2790 / 2755
Resistance : 2860 / 2880 / 2900 / 2965
BANK NIFTY (4336.9)
Support : 4175 / 4010
Resistance : 4365 / 4525 / 4710
On Tuesday,Opening is Flat to Down,
Stay Short Below 2850,Sl Above 2860,Tgt 2825-05-2790-65-45,
Sustain Above 2870,buy with Sl Below 2860,Tgt 2890-2905-35-75.
Sell SBIN (1137),Sl Above 1155,Tgt 1115/05++
Sell ACC Below 560,Tgt 550-540-515,Sl 575
Sell BOB Below 235,Tgt 225-210-185,Sl 245
Sell BHARTI Below 635,Tgt 625-615-590,Sl 645
Sell CMC Below 295,Tgt 290-280-265,Sl 305
Sell DABUR Below 91,Tgt 89-85-83,Sl 94
Sell GRASIM Below 1350,Tgt 1325-1295-1230,Sl 1360
Sell WIPRO Below 215,Tgt 205-200,Sl 220
FEB FUTURES
ONGC (687.65) : Sell @ 695,Sl 705,Tgt 685/80/75
REL ( 533.15) : Sell @ 545/55,Sl 560,Tgt 525/15
RIL (1319) : Buy RIL 1280Pa @ 1345/50,Sl 1370 (Intraday)
Sell @ 1340/45,Sl 1370,Tgt 1310++
Open low Buy @ 1280/75,Sl 1265,Tgt 1305/20
Sell Patel Eng Fut Below 145
Sell PNB Fut Below 385
COMMODITY
GOLD APRIL: Gold prices slipped to $933 before closing at $942 on Friday as fears of financial meltdown receded, but analysts say investors are expecting only a brief respite from the maelstrom will carry on piling into the precious metal. Traders said short-term investors selling their holdings ahead of a U.S. holiday on Monday weighed on gold. The worries about the financial system and the dollar prompted investors to buy gold as a hedge last week. Sharp investment inflows further bolstered prices as the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund posted its second largest daily gain in holdings. SPDR Gold Trust, commonly known as GLD, said its bullion holdings jumped over 15 tonnes to a record 985.86 tonnes as of Feb. 13. Investor unease was evident in the surge in gold ETF, coin and bar off-take and the demand for U.S. Treasuries. The escalating crisis in the banking sector has pushed up gold prices by about 40 percent since late October last year. Among Friday’s data releases from the US, Consumer Sentiment data was positive for bullion. Today we do not have any relevant data release from US due to President’s Day holiday. Gold continues to look positive above $920 support area in spot while silver has a support of $13.00. However dips could be used to buy in the near term for this week.
MCX Comdex :- The composite index of metals, energy and agro-commodities was down by 0.49% at 1805.23 points, MCX Energy by 0.85% to 1593.72 points, MCX Metal was down by 0.39% at 2280.13 and MCX Agri by 0.05%.
Bullion:-All bullion contracts gained. Gold April 09 contract was up by 0.53% to Rs 14706 per 10 grams and gold M March 09 contract by 0.55% to Rs 14725 per10 grams. Silver September 09 contract moved up by 2.06% to Rs 22173 per kg and silver M June 09 contract by 0.77% to Rs 22030 per kg. Gold Guinea March 09 contract rosed by 0.53% to Rs 14706 per 8 grams.
METALS:-Aluminium March 09 contract went down by 1.54% to Rs 67.30 per kg, copper February 09 contract by 2.26% to Rs 162.35 per kg, nickel April 09 contract moved down by 1.68% to Rs 514.90 per kg and zinc February 09 contract by 1.17% to Rs 55 per kg while lead February 09 contract was high by 0.45% to Rs 56.40 per kg.
| Technical Levels for 17 February 2009 |
|
| Trading Signal | |||||
| Symbol | RES 1 | RES 2 | RES 3 | Pivot | Supp1 | Supp2 | Supp3 | |
| Top of Form GOLD Bottom of Form | 14746.00 | 14812.00 | 14895.00 | 14663.00 | 14597 | 14514 | 14448 | Buy Signal |
| Top of Form SILVER Bottom of Form | 21559.67 | 21719.33 | 21888.67 | 21390.33 | 21230 | 21061 | 20901 | Buy Signal |
| Top of Form LEAD Bottom of Form | 56.60 | 57.05 | 57.55 | 56.10 | 55.65 | 55.15 | 54.70 | Buy Signal |
| Top of Form COPPER Bottom of Form | 164.62 | 167.03 | 168.92 | 162.73 | 160.32 | 158.43 | 156.02 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form NICKEL Bottom of Form | 504.83 | 511.47 | 518.13 | 498.17 | 491.53 | 484.87 | 478.23 | Buy Signal |
| Top of Form CRUDEOIL Bottom of Form | 2092.67 | 2120.33 | 2145.67 | 2067.33 | 2039.67 | 2014.33 | 1986.67 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form ZINC Bottom of Form | 55.22 | 55.93 | 56.42 | 54.73 | 54.02 | 53.53 | 52.82 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form NATURALGAS Bottom of Form | 213.83 | 217.17 | 219.63 | 211.37 | 208.03 | 205.57 | 202.23 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form MENTHAOIL Bottom of Form | 520.40 | 525.60 | 528.20 | 517.80 | 512.60 | 510.00 | 504.80 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form ALUMINIUM Bottom of Form | 65.68 | 66.37 | 66.93 | 65.12 | 64.43 | 63.87 | 63.18 | Sell Signal |
| Top of Form REFSOYOIL Bottom of Form | 450.53 | 454.07 | 456.33 | 448.27 | 444.73 | 442.47 | 438.93 | Sell Signal |
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