NEWSLETTER

MY CHART

Nifty :: In intraday chart Nifty move with minor Inverted Head & Solder bullish pattern with rising channel and exactly close near 4^th top…!!

From last week post we clearly indicate that may be Nifty made Bow Tie Diametric pattern with an expanding triangle .7 leg of 6^th with f leg may be finish near 2660 and move up for bullish g last leg. Target of this g leg near c-e line..

Both above pattern made a bullish structure for Nifty. As far as Nifty hold above last low 2660..

Now in short term for 2^nd Feb Nifty exactly close near strong resistance and enter in overbought zone required to break 2882 and close above 2900/2960 for further up move.. Till then avoid buying at higher level (in over bought zone).. Watch strong resistance 2900/2960.. If hold below it our strategy for 2^nd Feb sell at high (S.L 2961 with closing basis) buy on deep (S.L 2775).. In one level above 2865 momentum seems up, below 2865 momentum down.. Resistance for up move at 2900/2933/2960.. Supports at 2865/2825/2808/2775…

(Niftytrends)

Nifty on friday closed near the resistance of 2876 levels. A sustained upmove will take it to 2950. But, as of the the turbo cci is hooking. So, any longs should be protected with a stop loss.

upeshydalal

NIFTY FUTURE

ABOVE 2868 TARGET 2892-2915-2929
BELOW 2847 TARGET 2829-2811-2786

SVShah)

NSE INDEX (C-2874.80)

Resistance : 2885 / 2915 / 2950 / 2985 / 3015

Support : 2840 / 2800 / 2765 / 2735 / 2685

BSE SENSEX (C-9424.24)

Resistance : 9550 / 9670

Support : 9315 / 9200 / 8965

NIFTY FUTURE (C-2868.15)

Resistance : 2910 / 2950

Support : 2835 / 2795 / 2725

BANK FUTURE (C-4449.95)

Resistance : 4525 / 4600

Support : 4400 / 4325 / 4200

MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI up 5.03% with increasing volumes indicating forming of long positions.

We expect NIFTY FUT to trade positive with some volatility.

Next Week Is Critical For Direction Of The Market
CLOSE ABV 2910-2930 CAN TAKE MKTS TO 3100/3140++
CLOSE BELOW 2755-20 CAN SEE MKTS DOWN TO 2625-2500

On Monday,Opening is Flat to Up,

Stay Long Above 2870/80,Sl Below 2850,Tgt 2900-2920-2950,

Sustain Below 2840/30,Sell with Sl Above 2860,Tgt 2805-2770-2720.

Or

Risky Traders (For Traders @ 9:55 Am)

Buy NIFTY Around 2805/15,Sl Below 2765,Tgt 2840/2880/2900/2920/2950

Sell NIFTY Around 2885/95,Sl Above 2935,Tgt 2840/2805/2770/2750/2720

IVRCL INFRA

Buy Above 110,Tgt 113/115,Sl 109

Sell Below 108,Tgt 105/103,Sl 109

CROMPTON GREAVES

Buy Above 130,Tgt 133/135,Sl 129

Sell Below 128,Tgt 126/123,Sl 129

MNM

Buy Above 305,Tgt 310/315,Sl 300

Sell Below 299,Tgt 289/294,Sl 304

Buy BALARIMCHINI @ 57/58,Sl 54,Tgt 63/65+

Buy UNITECH Above 30,Sl 27,Tgt 35/38+

Buy IOC Above 454/55

Buy GLENMARK PHARMA Abv 140,Tgt 145/50/55,Sl 135

Buy Above ABGSHIP 70,Sl 68,Tgt 74/77/80

Buy ARVINDMILL 14,Sl 12,Tgt 16/18/20

Buy SBIN(1151),Sl Below 1125,Tgt 1175/1185+

Buy Dr.REDDY Above 450,Tgt 460-465-470,Sl 445

Buy HEROHONDA Above 875,Tgt 890-900-905,Sl 865

Sell CIPLA Below 190,Tgt 188-185-180,Sl 195

Sell COLGATE Below 420,Tgt 415-404-400,Sl 425

Sell TATAELEXI Below 85,Tgt 83-80-75,Sl 90

POSITIONAL

Buy RELIANCE 1300/20,Tgt 1380/,1420++,Sl Below 1270

Buy INFOSYS at dip Around 1270,Sl 1250,Tgt 1300-1320+

BUY NEYVELI,Sl 75,Tgt 85-90-95+

Buy SCI @80/85,Sl 72,Tgt 100/115

Buy ACC Above 505,Tgt 515-525-530,Sl 495

Buy ITC @ 177/80,Sl 173 On Closing Basis,Tgt 190+

Buy RELINFRA @550/70,Sl 535,Tgt 600/650/685+
Buy RELCAP @ 410/20,Sl 400,Tgt 440/465

Buy JAIPRAKASH ASSO @ 73/77,Sl 65,Tgt 80/85/90/95
Buy HINDALCO Above 47,Sl 44 On Closing Basis,Tgt 53/55/58
Buy ORIENTAL BANK Above 144,Sl 140,Tgt 150/55++

FUTURES

Sell SUNPHARMA Feb Fut @1075/80,Sl 1090,Tgt 1070/60/50/40/30/20/10/1000 (Positional Traders Sl 1115) [Lot Size 225]

Buy AXISBANK Fut Above 430,Sl 415 (Positional)

Buy LT(689.2) Fut @675/85,Sl 660,Tgt 695/705/715/725/740 [Lot Size 50]

Buy ONGC(658.2) @ 650,Sl 640,Tgt 670/675+ (Can Buy 670 Ca,Sl 640)

Buy RCOM(170.2) @ 165/67,Sl 160,Tgt 170/75/180/185/195

RIL (1325) : Intraday Trader Can Buy 1340Ca + 1320Pa

Buy @ 1300/05,Sl 1270,Tgt 1350+

Or

If Open High Sell @ 1350/60,Sl 1370,Tgt 1335/1325/1315

SBI(1152) : Intraday Trader Can Buy 1160/1180 Ca

Buy @ 1120/35,Sl 1110,Tgt 1175/1185/1195

Or

Open High Sell @ 1185,Sl 1205,Tgt 1165/1150

TISCO(184.65) : Intraday Trader Can Buy 180 Pa

Buy @ 175/80,Sl 170,Tgt 185/190/195

Or

If Open High Sell @ 190/95,Sl 198,Tgt 185/180

COMMODITIES WEEKLY

GOLD : Buy GOLD Around 14150/190,Sl 14100,Tgt 14400/14550+

Gold rose, capping a third straight monthly gain, as investors sought an alternative to holding cash. Silver also increased. While gold is traded in dollars, the price in euros is up 15 percent this month and 5.9 percent in U.K. pounds as central banks lower interest rates and governments spend trillions of dollars to revive economies. The U.S. economy shrank 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter, the steepest drop since 1982, as consumer spending slowed. A stimulus plan valued at more than $800 billion is pending in the U.S. Senate, after passing the House of Representatives earlier this week.

CRUDEOIL : Buy CRUDEOIL Jan Around 2000,Sl 1950,Tgt 2100/2165++

Crude oil rose in New York after a government report showed that the U.S. economy contracted less than forecast in the fourth quarter, signaling energy demand may strengthen. Oil gained as much as 4.8 percent, and gasoline reached an 11-week high after the Commerce Department said gross domestic product shrank at a 3.8 percent annual pace, less than the 5.5 percent forecast. The International Energy Agency and OPEC have both trimmed global demand forecasts, citing economic factors.

COPPER : Buy COPPER Feb Above 150,Sl 145,Tgt 160/65

Copper may drop next week as the recession in the U.S. reduces demand from builders and manufacturers. Copper slipped to the lowest price in the past week as the slumping global economy and rising metal inventories heightened concerns that demand will slide. The metal extended losses after an industry group reported that a barometer of U.S. business activity fell in January for a fourth consecutive month, a sign that the downturn in manufacturing may worsen this year.

Buy SILVER Around 19450/500,Sl 19250,Tgt 20000/20300

Buy ZINC Jan Around 52/53,Sl 51,Tgt 55/56

Buy LEAD Jan Around 55/56,Sl 54,Tgt 58++

S S Cheema

Ha so here we are – there is no good news coming from any corner. But the fact of the matter is that we as markets are not really falling like we were perhaps expected too. That is good and goes without saying – so have we gone into the much talked about consolidation phase? Are we disregarding the bad news that is hurtled at us from the US and the rest of the world? Are we ready to break away from the US sneezes… and the rest of the world catches flue kind of scenario? There are good indications that DOW will break the lower levels that were achieved recently in the past. There are companies throwing out the employees at a fairly fast pace and then there are companies where the employees are not going to work. Take the example of 24,000 refinery workers that was averted. Back home there is another talk of a non financial stimulus package and the fact that we are not breaking grounds as the other markets in the world have been recently. Infact the performance on Friday was actually presently surprising. Infact the markets had opened a bit lower than the S1 levels and then just kept on recovering through out the day. This was no illusion – it was for really. Above the pivot levels it halted and took a breather – but it had destinies at higher levels.

As far as the Global cues are concerned the Asia closed bad – Nikkei down 3.12%, Hang Seng up 0.94% and Strait Times down 1.15%. Europe tried its bit to go green but could no. FTSE was down 0.97%, DAX down 2.03% and CAC down 1.19%. Jaggu has also mentioned on his blog about the strong possibility of DOW breaking below 8000 and I too second it seeing the charts of DOW . That cannot be good for anyone but there is hardly anyone can do anything.

We are at the moment itsy-bitsy above the middle Bollinger bands levels – so if we fall then we go lower below the 2600 levels definitely this time. Of we don’t then the next hurdle should be at the 3150 levels or perhaps a bit even higher around 3200 levels. The Bollinger bandwidth is not changing too much now a days. The volumes were average at 104% of last 50 day average. MACD has give a positive tick – and that is good. The MACD divergence is in positive territory. The daily volatility has come own. RSI is good above the 40 line and looking up really. Slow Stochastic is about to enter the overbought territory – and that may signal a breather from the climb. The TRIX is almost looking up – Thank GOD – I almost thought that the TRIX will give up.

I will not pull it very long as I am feeling extremely sleepy.

Okay too the Pivot data now…

R3 2988 against 2951 on Friday
R2 2950
R1 2912
Pivot 2843 against 2830 Friday
S1 2805
S2 2736
S3 2698 against 2709 on Friday
Projected High Range 2877 to 2931
Projected Low Range 2831 to 2771
Fib Projected High 2910
Fib Projected Low 2744

Manas

Nifty yet again gave a wild upmove after a gap down opening.

For today, 2821 is a level which shouldnt break for nifty to maintain the upward bias.

play long if nifty trades above 2860 levels, tgt can be 2901-2917-2930

Short only if the nifty is trading below the range of 2834-2821, tgt can be 2789

another closing above 2860 today can give a good upmove in this week.

however this will be negated if we close below 2821

Sensex Technical View :

Sensex manages to pullback yet again to 9400-9450. Technically sustaining above 9450 for 2 sessions could suggest a test of the downward triangle trendline which is around the 9900-10100 zone.

In the last few weeks we did see a possible triangle breakout on upside as well as downside but volumes were lacking as well as confirmatory moves so traders need to be nimble to switch positions or trade with strict stops and small targets till market doesnt find a clear direction in near term.

On the longer term time analysis in my posts in previous months had always mentioned the importance of the 8th and 13th month zone which would be uncertain as a major bottom is generally seen around these periods. Although we expected a bottom close to 9.7-11.5k in October but we saw a much larger correction in line with economic conditions which have been much more then thought at the start of the downtrend.

Yet again we are around the 13-14 mth ( Jan mth was top ). So ideally a re-test of previous bottom or a formation of a major bottom and uncertainty on price terms would remain high. The next important fibonacci month zones comes around 21 mths. So investors would be better of watching the next couple of months or buy in a pyramid manner or a staggered manner only in major declines or take a fresh view after March for a very long term scenario. A good clarityand new thought process looking towards the future would emerge in this period as pointed before in all my previous discussions.

Will continue to monitor the situation technically on short term till then as upsides are capped at 10500-10900 ideally.

Stocks to watchout for :

Bhel has broken below 1300 giving indication of weakness, Rcom 148 and 190 is the range to watch,GNFC dint do anything.

Real estate stocks gave a good 5-12 % bounce of the stocks discussed but yet again the sector remains a risky proportion ( performers of previous bull runs have a tough time ).

ITC and Colgate seem to be catching in on the FMCG strength displayed by HUL which is the only stock near 52 week highs. Can they continue to build up to the small moves is the thing to watch.

ONGC would face resistance around 670-675 can be a short trade with a stoploss of 680.

Crompton Greaves looks weak if stays below 124 could well tgt 100-110 in that case. Watch for volume support.

ss ONGC has taken a support on the lower end and will now take a shot at the 720-730 area.

(STOCKSTAR)

INDEX GAME-
BUY NF ABOVE 2880 SL 2840 TARGET 2940/2990
SELL NF BELOW 2840 SL 2880 TARGET 2777/2730

STOCKS GAME-
BUY MCDOWELL ABOVE 590 SL 570 TARGET 610/630
BUY TV-18 ABOVE 74 SL 71 TARGET 83/89
BUY BINDAL AGRO ABOVE 11 SL 10 TARGET 12/13
BUY STRTECH ABOVE 64 SL 61 TARGET 67/70
BUY JETAIRWAYS ABOVE 180 SL 175 TARGET 185/190
BUY ABAN ABOVE 485 SL 470 TARGET 500/525
BUY LARSEN ABOVE 690 SL 670 TARGET 710/730
BUY FSL ABOVE 11 SL 10 TARGET 12/13
BUY INDIAINFO ABOVE 45 SL 43 TARGET 47/49
BUY BIOCON ABOVE 101 SL 98 TARGET 104/107
BUY BAJAJHIND ABOVE 57 SL 55 TARGET 59/61
BUY UNIECH ABOVE 32 SL 30 TARGET 34/36
BUY RELINFRA ABOVE 580 SL 560 TARGET 600/620
BUY HDFCBANK ABOVE 925 SL 910 TARGET 940/965
BUY VOLTAMP ABOVE 350 SL 340 TARGET 360/370
SELL TATA TEA BELOW 605 SL 620 TARGET 590/575
SELL AKRUTI BELOW 800 SL 820 TARGET 780/760
SELL AUROPHARMA BELOW 161 SL 167 TATGET 155/149