Tuesday, February 3, 2009

news

The Indian market opened on lower note on weak global cues and close in deep red zone. For coming session 2763-2720 zone will act as main support for bounces and cracking below 2720 it can test 2690-area. On the other side 2880 will act as strong resistances zone .

Nifty's brief attempt to stay above 2860 instantly failed at the open and it fell below all averages to manage to close above the 5 day low ema(2760).
TA sell has been generated. However, one more day of follow through action is required as in the past, during this kind of corrective mode, Index has reversed to go higher & then has fallen.
As per EW, "e" wave of the Triangle is considered over only if Nifty falls below 2662 or a completion of an internal 3 or 5 waves (Only 2 seems to be over). However, I will watch over last weeks low of 2710 as Key level in the coming days.
Another bearish set up developed today is the cross over of 20 DMA below 50 DMA. Daily Stochastics have turned down..12 DRoc has gone back into negative area. So Dark clouds are gathering over Nifty...
Weekly trend is UP but Daily Trend has Turned Down today.
Key levels to look out would be 2710 - 2760........... 2785 - 2805 - 2840.
WEEKLY


S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
2,650 2,763 2,822 2,934 2,993
DAILY


S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
2,702 2,734 2,793 2,826 2,885






Nifty :: Unable to cross 2882 and once again came down from overbought zone.. Now for further up move required to break multiple top 2880.. For 3rd Feb watch two strong support 2684/2671.. As far as stay above 2660 mid term momentum is up and that’s why our strategy buy in deep (S.L 2660) sell at high (S.L 2880).. Resistance for up move at 2800/2825/2880.. Supports at

sell INFOSYS below 1270 SL 1292 Target 1255-1240
Sell HEROHONDA
below 869 SL 880 Target 862-856-648
Buy AXISBANK above 404 SL 391 Target 412-418-424
Buy DR.REDDY above 450 SL 442 Target 455-460-471


FUTURE


ABOVE 2764 TARGET 2786-2803-2820-2842
BELOW 2728 TARGET 2711-2693-2686-2635


MARKETCALLS’ VIEW ON FOR INTRADAY :

Today may play in narrow range. If breaks 2728 then it can touch upto 2635 and if sustain above 2764 then it may touch 2803 very quickly. Today you may see more volatility in market. I would like to say is in no trade zone for safe players. Overall trend it weak.

-Always Remember, put SL in your every trade




NSE INDEX (2766.65) : 5Day Low EMA @ 2760

Resistance : 2795 / 2835 / 2890 / 2915

Support : 2740 / 2725 / 2700 / 2685 / 2645


SENSEX (9066.7)

Resistance : 9160 / 9270 / 9475

Support : 8950 / 8845


NIFTY FUTURE (2735.35)

Resistance : 2805 / 2875

Support : 2695 / 2655


BANK NIFTY (4199.95)

Resistance : 4265 / 4350 / 4500

Support : 4120 / 4040




MKT COMMENTS

NIFTY FUT OI down 4.54% with flat volumes indicating not only unwinding of long positions and forming of forming of fresh shorts positions too.

We expect NIFTY SPOT below 2740 levels more weak.




On Tuesday,Opening is Flat to Down,

Stay Short Below 2730,Sl Above 2745,Tgt 2685-2650-2620-2535,

Sustain Above 2760,Buy with Sl Below 2745,Tgt 2780-2815-2840-2870-2915




Buy CROMPTON Above 130/35

Buy CIPLA Above 190,Tgt 195-200-205,Sl190

Buy GAIL Above 200,Tgt 205-210-220,Sl 195

Buy SATYAM Above 55,Tgt 60-65-70,Sl 50



Sell ONGC Below 640,Tgt 625-610-600,Sl 645

Sell MARUTI Below 565,Tgt 550-535-530,Sl 570

Sell BHARTI Below 615,Tgt 605-595-590,Sl 620

Sell RPOWER Below 100,Tgt 95/90/85,Sl 105


Sell RCOM Below 155,Tgt 150/45/40,Sl 160

Sell SBIN (1096),Sl Above 1110,Tgt 1075/65




FEB FUTURES


DLF (147.95)

Upside : 150/155/160

Downside : 145/140/135/130/125



ACC (493.05) : Sell @ 500/495,Sl 505,Tgt 485+


MARUTI (566.6) : Sell@ 570/75,Sl 585,Tgt 560/55/50


ONGC (639.35) : Sell @ 650/45,Sl 655,Tgt 630/25/20


Today i am uploading an EOD chart to show the triangle.

any break of this triangle can be big..!!

technically we should be short on Nifty as of now, with a SL of 2845, with 1st tgt as 2645 levels.

a break below 2640 can get a lot of strength for bears, and we may fall to 2501-24xx levels.


similarly, if crosses 2845 it can quickly blast to 2950 levels.

For intraday today,

Resistence at - 2751-2781(imp level)

Supp at - 2703-2687-2662

NIFTY GAME-
BUY NF ABOVE 2730 SL 2650 TARGET 2777/2840
SELL NF BELOW 2730 SL 2777 TARGET 2650/2550


STOCKS GAME-
BUY BINDAL AGRO ABOVE 11 SL 10 TARGET 12/13
BUY BIOCON ABOVE 102 SL 99 TARGET 105/108
BUY CHAMBAL ABOVE 39 SL 37 TARGET 41/43
BUY CUMMINS ABOVE 170 SL 165 TARGET 175/180
BUY GAIL ABOVE 202 SL 197 TARGET 207/212
BUY GESHIPING ABOVE 178 SL 172 TARGET 183/188
BUY GVK ABOVE 19 SL 18 TARGET 20/21

BUY KSK ABOVE 157 SL 153 TARGET 161/165
BUY UNIPHOS ABOVE 96 SL 93 TARGET 99/102
SELL BAJAJ AUTO BELOW 465 SL 480 TARGET 450/435
SELL COLPAL BELOW 415 SL 420 TARGET 410/405
SELL HEROHONDA BELOW 880 SL 890 TARGET 870/860
SELL INFOSYS BELOW 1175 SL 1190 TARGET 1150/1135
SELL IOC BELOW 440 SL 455 TARGET 425/410
SELL RENUKA BELOW 73 SL 75 TARGET 71/69

ensex Technical View :

In the last few sessions the range on upside has been restricted to 9400-9450 as was repeated in previous views. On the downside need to watch the recent low of 8630 and next 8300 which is the most important level in the next couple of months as a closing below it would signal extreme weakness.

On the upside the range if capped to 9900-10100 provided Sensex crosses 9450. Traders can position themselves accordingly in near term.

If we see the range bound moves between 8600 to 9400 none of the pullbacks or drops have had not a major large price action or volume support so every move tends to get over in a week. So expected range for the week could be 8600 to 9450 any move beyond it could lead to a nice move.

Commodities update :

GOLD :

In the previous UPDATE.
It was discussed 920-930 would be a major resistance level difficult to cross and may give shorting opportunity and a target around 900. Gold made a high of 930 and a low of 902 odd which must have given a good trading opportunity to commodity trades.

As of now 895-902 remains a support zone with a pullback resistance at 920 zones. Only a move beyond 935 zone would give a wild move which may be only possible with a crack in equity markets. So can watch for some signals here.

CRUDE :

The 38.5-40 remains a zone of support but may get only violated near expiry of contracts. On the upside 43.5-45 would be a resistance to watch. Only a move beyond either of the range will give a big move.


Stocks to watchout for :


Reliance Inds pulls back from trendline ( short trade initiated for clients at 1325 part booked at 1280, Also Nifty 2700 pe ) , RCOM not able to cross 175 and neither 148 so watchout. Real estate pulls back ( dats why risky ) , BHEL remains weak. ITC , colgate nuthin happening.

Crompton Greaves looks weak if stays below 124 could well tgt 100-110 in that case. Watch for volume support.

ONGC the range is 615-675 a close below either levels will give a good 5-15 % move in quick time. Traders can keep a watch.

Reliance Capital
Recent 52 week low is around 375. So a simplistic trading approach suggests to short below that with a small stop for a tgt of 340-360.











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